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Wednesday's NBA and NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 3/11

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  • #16
    NCAAB

    Wednesday, March 11



    Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAB small conferences

    Team to watch: Yale Bulldogs (22-9 SU, 14-7-1 ATS)

    Upcoming: vs. Harvard Saturday

    First place in the Ivy League and an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament will be on the line when Yale plays Harvard (9-13 ATS) in a one-game tiebreaker at The Palestra in Philadelphia Saturday.

    Justin Sears, a 6-foot-8 junior forward, is a big reason why Yale is in fine form and came within seconds of already clinching the league title (the Bulldogs lost at Dartmouth 59-58 on a buzzer-beater last weekend). Sears (14.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.5 bpg) was named Ivy League Player of the Week earlier this month thanks in part to a 28-point, 12-rebound performance against Princeton.

    “You get your acceptance letter from Yale and one of the first things they tell you is, ‘We hate Harvard,’” Sears reflected. “Everyone gets into it. The number one most important thing at the end of the day is, ‘Did you beat Harvard?’”

    The Bulldogs just beat Harvard 62-52 last Friday despite being 10-point road underdogs.

    Team to beware: VCU Rams (22-9 SU, 11-19 ATS)

    Upcoming: vs. Fordham/George Mason Thursday (A-10 Tournament)

    A poorly-timed, late-season slump caused VCU to plunge from first place in the Atlantic 10 to fifth—and out of the double-byes that went to the conference’s Top 4 teams.

    The Rams, who have lost three of their last four (0-4 ATS) and five of their last nine (2-7 ATS), can chalk up their recent struggles to complete failure in close games. Four of their last five setbacks have come by five points or fewer and two required overtime. By contrast, VCU’s four most recent wins have come by an average of 12.5 points.

    Shaka Smart’s team simply has not been the same since Briante Weber suffered a torn ACL in a loss to Richmond on Jan. 31. Weber (8.1 ppg) was a senior leader and the instigator of VCU’s trademark “havoc” press defense. He averaged 3.9 steals per game.

    The Rams are 11-19 ATS overall.

    Total team: Charlotte 49ers (14-17 SU, 16-7 O/U)

    Upcoming: vs. Middle Tennessee Wednesday (C-USA tournament)

    Interim head coach Ryan Odom has been unable to get Charlotte going defensively since taking over for Alan Major (health issues) in early January. It’s not for lack of trying.

    After using the same starting lineup for their first 14 games of the season, the 49ers have featured five different combinations in their last 15 outings. They have gone big, they have gone fast, and they have gone small (sitting center Mike Thorne and power forward Willie Clayton), but nothing has worked. UNCC has allowed at least 73 points in seven of its past eight contests and it has limited an opponent to fewer than 60 points only once in its last 15 games.

    In games involving Charlotte this season, the Over is 16-7-1 (including 7-1 in its last eight and 12-2 in its last 14). The Over is 12-4 Middle Tennessee's last 16 overall and 4-1 in the team's last five. Since Feb. 19, the Blue Raiders have twice reached the 90-point mark (90 in a win over Marshall and 95 in a loss to UAB).

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    • #17
      NBA
      Long Sheet

      Wednesday, March 11


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      CHICAGO (39 - 26) at PHILADELPHIA (14 - 49) - 3/11/2015, 7:05 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      CHICAGO is 57-78 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
      CHICAGO is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
      PHILADELPHIA is 90-132 ATS (-55.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game since 1996.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      PHILADELPHIA is 5-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
      CHICAGO is 7-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
      4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      SACRAMENTO (21 - 41) at CHARLOTTE (28 - 34) - 3/11/2015, 7:05 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      CHARLOTTE is 2-2 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
      CHARLOTTE is 2-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      MEMPHIS (45 - 18) at BOSTON (26 - 36) - 3/11/2015, 7:35 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      MEMPHIS is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
      MEMPHIS is 82-57 ATS (+19.3 Units) against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
      MEMPHIS is 216-173 ATS (+25.7 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
      MEMPHIS is 40-24 ATS (+13.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
      BOSTON is 16-37 ATS (-24.7 Units) in home games against Southwest division opponents since 1996.
      BOSTON is 46-77 ATS (-38.7 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      MEMPHIS is 3-2 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
      MEMPHIS is 5-0 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      BROOKLYN (25 - 37) at MIAMI (28 - 35) - 3/11/2015, 7:35 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      MIAMI is 9-6 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
      MIAMI is 10-5 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
      9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      ORLANDO (21 - 44) at MILWAUKEE (33 - 30) - 3/11/2015, 8:05 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      ORLANDO is 5-4 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
      MILWAUKEE is 5-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
      6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      LA CLIPPERS (41 - 23) at OKLAHOMA CITY (35 - 28) - 3/11/2015, 8:05 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      LA CLIPPERS are 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) in all games this season.
      LA CLIPPERS are 74-110 ATS (-47.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
      LA CLIPPERS are 167-229 ATS (-84.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
      LA CLIPPERS are 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
      LA CLIPPERS are 123-164 ATS (-57.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
      OKLAHOMA CITY is 73-53 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
      OKLAHOMA CITY is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
      LA CLIPPERS are 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games after allowing 85 points or less since 1996.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-4 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
      OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-5 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
      8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      ATLANTA (50 - 13) at DENVER (23 - 41) - 3/11/2015, 9:05 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
      ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      MINNESOTA (14 - 48) at PHOENIX (33 - 32) - 3/11/2015, 10:05 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      MINNESOTA is 6-3 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
      PHOENIX is 5-5 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
      5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      HOUSTON (43 - 20) at PORTLAND (41 - 20) - 3/11/2015, 10:35 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      HOUSTON is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      HOUSTON is 9-6 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
      PORTLAND is 8-8 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
      13 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      DETROIT (23 - 40) at GOLDEN STATE (50 - 12) - 3/11/2015, 10:35 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      DETROIT is 65-80 ATS (-23.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      DETROIT is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
      GOLDEN STATE is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
      GOLDEN STATE is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
      GOLDEN STATE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in home games this season.
      GOLDEN STATE is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
      GOLDEN STATE is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
      GOLDEN STATE is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
      GOLDEN STATE is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
      GOLDEN STATE is 64-93 ATS (-38.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      GOLDEN STATE is 4-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
      GOLDEN STATE is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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      • #18
        NBA
        Short Sheet

        Wednesday, March 11


        Chicago at Philadelphia, 7:05 ET
        Chicago: 19-8 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs
        Philadelphia: 36-15 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent

        Sacramento at Charlotte, 7:05 ET
        Sacramento: 10-1 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points
        Charlotte: 15-5 UNDER in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

        Memphis at Boston, 7:35 ET
        Memphis: 49-28 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more
        Boston: 5-14 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog

        Brooklyn at Miami, 7:35 ET
        Brooklyn: 40-23 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread
        Miami: 5-15 ATS after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread

        Orlando at Milwaukee, 8:05 ET
        Orlando: 21-8 UNDER in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent
        Milwaukee: 36-27 UNDER in all games

        LA Clippers at Oklahoma City, 8:05 ET
        LA Clippers: 19-30 ATS after playing a game as favorite
        Oklahoma City: 10-2 ATS after a game outrebounding opponent by 15 or more

        Atlanta at Denver, 9:05 ET
        Atlanta: 21-6 ATS when the total is 200 to 209.5
        Denver: 2-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders

        Minnesota at Phoenix, 10:05 ET
        Minnesota: 13-24 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
        Phoenix: 28-15 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games

        Houston at Portland, 10:35 ET
        Houston: 11-3 OVER in road games after scoring 105 points or more
        Portland: 32-17 OVER after 5 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers

        Detroit at Golden State, 10:35 ET
        Detroit: 8-19 ATS in a road game where the total is 200 to 209.5
        Golden State: 20-7 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 200

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