The Bum's February's College Hoops Trends,Stats,News All You Need To Know B4 Wagering

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, February 26

Michigan State won/covered last four games, but three of those were on road; Spartans are 2-5 as home favorites- six of their seven home games were decided by 6 or less points or in OT. Minnesota lost its last three games by 19-6-10 points; four of its seven road losses are by 10+. They are 2-3-1 as road underdogs. Gophers are forcing turnovers 23% of time, best in conference. Big 14 home favorites of 8+ points are 7-19 vs spread.

Road team is 13-1 vs spread in Tennessee's SEC games; Vols are 2-5 in SEC home games, 0-5 as home favorites- they lost last three tilts overall, scoring 53.3 ppg. Tennessee (+4.5) won 76-73 in OT at Vanderbilt Feb 11, after they trailed by 4 with 0:10 left in regulation. Commodores won four of last five games, covering all five-- they're 3-3 as road underdogs. SEC home teams are 8-19-1 vs spread in games where the spread was 3 or less points.

Drexel (+4) won 66-62 at Delaware Jan 17, holding Blue Hens to 4-19 on arc in game they led by 12 at half. Game started Dragons on 7-1 run, but they've lost last three games since by 24-4-10 points, giving up 82 ppg. Blue Hens covered eight of last ten as an underdog, are 6-1 as road dogs, with road losses by 13-1-6-12 points. Drexel won four of last five home games, is 1-2 as a home favorite. CAA home teams are 10-13 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Louisiana Tech (+4) won 58-45 in El Paso Jan 8, holding Miners to 12 second half points in game that was tied at half. Tech won seven of its last nine games, is 3-3 as home favorite- they're 6-0 SU at home, with its last four wins all by 11+ points. UTEP won last seven games, with five of seven wins by 7 or less points; they're 5-2 on C-USA road, losing by 5 at WKU, 7 at Marshall. C-USA home teams are 28-16-1 in games where spread was 5 or less points.

Memphis (+8) lost 73-59 at SMU Jan 8; Mustangs shot 56.5% inside the arc, were +16 on boards. Tigers won/covered last three games, are 5-2 SU in AAC home games, losing to Tulane/Temple. SMU won its last four games; underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in its AAC road games- Mustangs are 2-4 as road favorites. Memphis is holding foes to 28.3% from arc SMU leads AAC, making 37.3% from arc. Home teams are 8-4-1 in AAC games where spread was 3 or less points.

UCSB (+2.5) lost 70-64 at Cal-Davis after leading by five with 9:50 left; Hawkins was 6-8 from arc, had 28 for Aggies, who've won seven games in row, are 3-1 as road underdogs, with only loss at Hawai'i by 8. UCSB won four of last five games, is 2-3 as home favorite, with wins by 8-19-1-15 points. UCSB star Williams returned for last two games, scored 13.5 ppg; he is a difference-maker for the Gauchos. Big West home favorites of 5 or less points are 8-4-2 vs spread.

Utah (-4.5) won 76-59 at Arizona State Jan 15, making 9-17 on arc and scoring 1.27 ppp; Utes are 5-1-1 as home favorites, with all seven home wins by 15+ points- they host Arizona Saturday, have to avoid looking past ASU squad that won its last three games, is 2-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 24-8-3-19-3 points, with wins at Washington and Cal. Utah leads pac-12, making 40.7% on arc; ASU is 9th in league at defending 3's. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 12-6-2 vs spread.

St Mary's played its heart out Saturday in home loss to Gonzaga, now hits road to face San Francisco squad they beat 69-56 (-6) Dec 29, with Gaels were +7 in turnovers (14-7), shot 62.5% inside arc. Gaels split last six games, are 4-0 as WCC road favorites, winning away games by 9-9-7-10-7 points, with losses at Gonzaga/BYU. USF won last three games, but lost three of last four at home- they covered four of last five as a dog. WCC home underdogs of 3 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.

Wofford (-7) nipped Mercer 49-46 at home Jan 31, in a low-possession (49) brickfest- both teams were 4-17 from arc. Terriers won three in row, 10 of last 11 games; they're 6-1 on SoCon road, with loss at Citadel their worst game of year. Mercer split its last four games; four of its last five home games were decided by 5 or less points. Home teams are 45-35 SU in SoCon, ranking 23rd of 32 leagues in home win %. SoCon home teams are 6-15 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.

North Dakota State scored last eight points of game, made 11-22 on arc in 72-66 (-4.5) win over Oral Roberts in Summit opener Jan 2 Titans lost in spite of going 10-15 from arc. Bison led 21-6 early on. ORU lost three of last five games, is 1-5 as a home favorite. ND State won seven of its last eight games, is 4-3 on Summit road, with two of four wins in OT. Bison's only loss in last eight games was at South Dakota State by 10. Summit League home favorites of 4 or less points are 5-11-1 vs spread.

Monmouth (+4.5) won 55-54 at Rider Jan 12, after trailing by nine with 14:31 left; Broncs were +18 in rebounds (44-26), -7 in turnovers (16-9). Hawks won four of last five games, with four of five decided by 5 or less points- they're 2-4-1 as home favorites. Rider won nine of last 12 games, is 4-1 as road underdog, with road losses by 13 at Iona, 7 at Siena. Rider is worst foul shooting team in league, but defends the 3's best in MAAC. MAAC home favorites of 3 or less points are 8-11 vs spread.

Eastern Illinois was 6-0 in OVC when Murray State (-5) beat them 77-62 Jan 22; Panthers were 5-24 from arc, Murray shot 56% inside arc in game they never trailed. Eastern lost six of last nine games, is 3-2-1 as road dog four of its last six games were decided by 8 or less points. Murray is 2-6 vs spread in its last eight games, 3-4 as hme favorite; this is Senior Night for highly successful team with three senior starters. OVC home favorites of 9+ points are 7-13 vs spread.

Montana is in three-way race with Eastern Washington/Sacramento for top seed in Big Sky; winner hosts Big Sky tournament. Griz won its last five games, three by 11+ points; they're 4-2 on Big Sky road, winning last road game in triple OT. Idaho (+7) lost 70-56 at Montana Feb 7, making 65% of 2-points shots, with +7 (17-10) turnover ratio. Griz forces TOs 21.8% of time, best in Big Sky. Big Sky home teams are 15-20 in games where spread was 3 or less points.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, February 26

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Trend Report
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6:00 PM
EAST TENNESSEE STATE vs. THE CITADEL
No trends available
The Citadel is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The Citadel is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
NORTHEASTERN vs. ELON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northeastern's last 6 games on the road
Northeastern is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Elon's last 9 games
Elon is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
WISC-MILWAUKEE vs. WRIGHT STATE
Wisc-Milwaukee is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Wisc-Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Wright State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Wisc-Milwaukee
Wright State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. TEMPLE
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Temple's last 6 games at home
Temple is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
CHATTANOOGA vs. VMI
Chattanooga is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Chattanooga is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
No trends available

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
DELAWARE vs. DREXEL
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Delaware's last 6 games on the road
Delaware is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Drexel is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Drexel is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE STATE vs. EASTERN KENTUCKY
Jacksonville State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Eastern Kentucky's last 12 games
Eastern Kentucky is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. MICHIGAN STATE
Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Michigan State
Minnesota is 1-15 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Michigan State
Michigan State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State's last 6 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
NEBRASKA vs. OHIO STATE
Nebraska is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Nebraska is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Ohio State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Nebraska
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ohio State's last 7 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
WOFFORD vs. MERCER
Wofford is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
No trends available

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
SAMFORD vs. UNC GREENSBORO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Samford's last 6 games on the road
Samford is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
UNC Greensboro is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Samford
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UNC Greensboro's last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
WESTERN CAROLINA vs. FURMAN
Western Carolina is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Furman
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Western Carolina's last 6 games on the road
Furman is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Western Carolina
Furman is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Western Carolina

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:00 PM
VANDERBILT vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 6 games on the road
Vanderbilt is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Vanderbilt
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Vanderbilt

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FEBRUARY 26, 7:30 PM
GEORGIA SOUTHERN vs. APPALACHIAN STATE
Georgia Southern is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 6 games on the road
Appalachian State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Georgia Southern
Appalachian State is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Georgia Southern

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
WISC-GREEN BAY vs. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO
Wisc-Green Bay is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Wisc-Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Illinois-Chicago is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois-Chicago's last 6 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
NORTHERN ARIZONA vs. NORTH DAKOTA
Northern Arizona is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Northern Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Dakota's last 5 games when playing Northern Arizona
North Dakota is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
OLD DOMINION vs. RICE
Old Dominion is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Old Dominion's last 5 games on the road
Rice is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Rice is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. NORTH TEXAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
Charlotte is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
North Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
North Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
TEXAS EL PASO vs. LOUISIANA TECH
Texas El Paso is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Louisiana Tech is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisiana Tech's last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
TENNESSEE-MARTIN vs. TENNESSEE STATE
Tennessee-Martin is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee-Martin's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Tennessee-Martin
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee State's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee-Martin

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO vs. SOUTHERN MISS
Texas-San Antonio is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Texas-San Antonio is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Southern Miss is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Southern Miss is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. MARSHALL
Florida International is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Florida International is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Marshall's last 6 games at home
Marshall is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Florida Atlantic is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Florida Atlantic
Western Kentucky is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Florida Atlantic

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
RIDER vs. MONMOUTH
Rider is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Rider's last 7 games on the road
Monmouth is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Monmouth is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
SIU EDWARDSVILLE vs. AUSTIN PEAY
SIU Edwardsville is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Austin Peay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing SIU Edwardsville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Austin Peay's last 7 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:00 PM
EASTERN ILLINOIS vs. MURRAY STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Eastern Illinois's last 5 games when playing on the road against Murray State
Eastern Illinois is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Murray State
Murray State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Eastern Illinois
Murray State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Eastern Illinois

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:05 PM
GRAND CANYON vs. CHICAGO STATE
No trends available
Chicago State is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
Chicago State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:05 PM
UTAH VALLEY vs. UMKC
Utah Valley is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
UMKC is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
UMKC is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Utah Valley

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:05 PM
LOUISIANA-MONROE vs. SOUTH ALABAMA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 7 games on the road
Louisiana-Monroe is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
South Alabama is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Alabama's last 7 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:30 PM
TROY vs. TEXAS STATE
Troy is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Texas State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Texas State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:30 PM
GEORGIA STATE vs. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK
Georgia State is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arkansas-Little Rock's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arkansas-Little Rock's last 6 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 8:30 PM
TEXAS-ARLINGTON vs. ARKANSAS STATE
Texas-Arlington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas-Arlington's last 6 games on the road
Arkansas State is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arkansas State's last 7 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 9:00 PM
SOUTHERN UTAH vs. NORTHERN COLORADO
Southern Utah is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Utah's last 5 games on the road
Northern Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Southern Utah
Northern Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 9:00 PM
TENNESSEE TECH vs. MOREHEAD STATE
Tennessee Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee Tech is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Morehead State is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games when playing Tennessee Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Morehead State's last 8 games when playing Tennessee Tech

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FEBRUARY 26, 9:00 PM
SOUTHERN METHODIST vs. MEMPHIS
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games
Memphis is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 9:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. COLORADO
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 9:00 PM
RUTGERS vs. PURDUE
Rutgers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Purdue is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Purdue's last 7 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 9:05 PM
MONTANA STATE vs. EASTERN WASHINGTON
Montana State is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Montana State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Eastern Washingto
Eastern Washington is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
Eastern Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 10:00 PM
MONTANA vs. IDAHO
Montana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Montana is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Idaho is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Montana
Idaho is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 10:00 PM
UC IRVINE vs. CAL POLY
UC Irvine is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of UC Irvine's last 7 games when playing on the road against Cal Poly
Cal Poly is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Cal Poly is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 10:00 PM
PACIFIC vs. SANTA CLARA
Pacific is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pacific is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Santa Clara is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pacific
Santa Clara is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 10:00 PM
CS FULLERTON vs. CS NORTHRIDGE
CS Fullerton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
CS Fullerton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
CS Northridge is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against CS Fullerton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of CS Northridge's last 7 games when playing at home against CS Fullerton

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FEBRUARY 26, 10:00 PM
BYU vs. PORTLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of BYU's last 5 games on the road
BYU is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Portland is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing BYU
Portland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

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FEBRUARY 26, 10:00 PM
UC DAVIS vs. SANTA BARBARA
UC Davis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Santa Barbara
UC Davis is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Santa Barbara
Santa Barbara is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing UC Davis
Santa Barbara is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing UC Davis

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FEBRUARY 26, 10:30 PM
ARIZONA STATE vs. UTAH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona State's last 7 games on the road
Arizona State is 4-9-3 ATS in its last 16 games on the road
Utah is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona State
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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FEBRUARY 26, 11:00 PM
OREGON STATE vs. STANFORD
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oregon State's last 7 games when playing on the road against Stanford
Oregon State is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Stanford
Stanford is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oregon State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Stanford's last 5 games when playing Oregon State

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FEBRUARY 26, 11:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. GONZAGA
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Gonzaga
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing on the road against Gonzaga
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Gonzaga's last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego

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FEBRUARY 26, 11:00 PM
ST. MARY'S vs. SAN FRANCISCO
St. Mary's is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
St. Mary's is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-18 SU in its last 19 games when playing St. Mary's
San Francisco is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing St. Mary's

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Thursday, February 26


Top 25 roundup: Kentucky moves to 28-0

STARKVILLE, Miss. -- The only thing more frightful than the snowstorm outside Humphrey Coliseum was the play inside of No. 1 ranked and unbeaten Kentucky as the Wildcats defeated Mississippi State 74-56 on Wednesday night in a Southeastern Conference clash.

Scoring its most points in a road game since beating UCLA 83-44 on Dec. 20 in Chicago, Kentucky (28-0, 15-0 SEC) used a spurt to blow open the game. The run came after Mississippi State (12-16, 5-10) had closed to within four points with 15:05 remaining.

In a span of 4:25, Kentucky outscored Mississippi State 19-3 to move ahead by 20 points, 60-40, with 8:40 remaining. The Wildcats coasted home from that point for the easy victory.

Freshman forward Trey Lyles paced Kentucky with a career-best 18 points.

Mississippi State was led by junior guard Fred Thomas with 14 points.

Virginia 70, Wake Forest 34

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. -- Short-handed Virginia never missed a beat, with forward Anthony Gill scoring 11 points as the second-ranked Cavaliers demolished Wake Forest at Lawrence Joel Coliseum.

Forward Darion Atkins added 10 points for first-place Virginia (26-1, 14-1 Atlantic Coast Conference), which won a one-point decision against Wake Forest less than two weeks ago. In the rematch, the Cavaliers did all this without starting point guard London Perrantes, who was out with a broken nose and mild concussion sustained three nights earlier. He was seated on the Virginia bench next to guard Justin Anderson, who is out after finger surgery.

Forward Dinos Mitoglou scored eight of his 10 points in the second half for Wake Forest (12-16, 4-11), which played its third game in a row against a Top 10 opponent. It was the Demon Deacons' lowest point total in 26 seasons since Lawrence Joel Coliseum opened.

Duke 91, Virginia Tech 86 (OT)

BLACKSBURG, Va. -- No. 4 Duke was thrilled to have freshman center Jahlil Okafor back in the lineup at Virginia Tech because without him the Blue Devils might have been the victims of one of the biggest upsets of the season.

He had a career-high 30 points and nine rebounds in Duke's comeback win in overtime at Cassell Coliseum. Okafor, who missed Saturday's home win against Clemson with a left ankle injury, was a force inside. He made 13 of 18 shots from the field in 37 minutes.

The Blue Devils (25-3, 12-3 ACC) held off a furious upset attempt by the Hokies (10-18, 2-13), who took a second top-five team down to the wire at home this season without sealing the deal. Virginia Tech fell 50-47 at home to No. 2 Virginia on Jan. 25.

Duke guard Quinn Cook finished with 26 points. Virginia Tech freshman guard Jalen Hudson came off the bench to score a team-high 23 points.

Wichita State 63, Indiana State 53

TERRE HAUTE, Ind. -- Gregg Marshall reached two milestones with one shot and No. 11 Wichita State did its part to set up a showdown for the Missouri Valley Conference regular-season title.

The Shockers coach won his 200th game at the school and his 100th conference game as forward Darius Carter scored 20 points in a 63-53 victory over Indiana State. Point guard Fred VanVleet hit for 15 points, including a difficult fadeaway over 6-foot-10 center Jake Kitchell with the shot clock about to expire for a 55-49 edge with 3:36 left. Guard Tekele Cotton added 12 points. Carter's 3-point play with 1:58 left gave Wichita State (26-3, 16-1) a nine-point lead, icing the outcome.

Next up for Wichita State: A rematch with visiting Northern Iowa on Saturday for the top seed in next weekend's conference tournament.

Forward Khristian Smith pumped in 20 points for the Sycamores (14-15, 10-7).

Richmond 67, VCU 63 (2 OT)

Reserve guard ShawnDre' Jones scored 22 points and Richmond beat No. 22 VCU in a double-overtime thriller to sweep the season series with its cross-town rival for the first time since 2001.

Forward Terry Allen had 16 points and 10 rebounds for the host Spiders (16-12, 9-6 Atlantic 10). Guard Kendall Anthony scored 13 points and forward T.J. Cline added 11 for Richmond, which won its third game in a row.

Rams guard Treveon Graham scored 25 points, including a clutch 3-pointer in the closing seconds of regulation, but VCU (21-7, 11-4) still fell into a four-way tie with Rhode Island, Dayton and Davidson for first place in the Atlantic 10. VCU guard JeQuan Lewis finished with 15 points.

Graham tied the game at 52 with a 3-pointer with six seconds left to force overtime.

Butler 73, Marquette 52

INDIANAPOLIS -- Guard Kellen Dunham sank consecutive 3-point shots in a 20-second span early in the second half to begin a 21-7 burst and 23rd-ranked Butler defeated Big East rival Marquette in Hinkle Fieldhouse.

Marquette (11-16, 3-12 Big East) had pulled within 38-35 when Dunham, who led all scorers with 22 points, made a 3-pointer with 16:13 left and then another with 15:53 left to give Butler (20-8, 10-5) a 44-35 lead, prompting a Golden Eagles timeout. A basket by guard Kelan Martin with 8:42 left capped the 21-7 run and gave Butler a 59-42 advantage. Another Dunham 3-pointer with 5:26 to go extended the Bulldogs' lead to 66-46.

The victory pulled the Bulldogs into a second-place Big East tie with Georgetown, each three games behind conference-leading Villanova with three games to play.

Center Luke Fischer led Marquette with 17 points.

Baylor 79, Iowa State 70

AMES, Iowa -- Baylor used a huge second-half shooting barrage and a strong defensive effort down the stretch for an historic victory Wednesday night. The 19th-ranked Bears beat No. 12 Iowa State in Hilton Coliseum for the first time in 13 tries while ending the Cyclones' 21-game home-court win streak.

Trailing 62-54 with 8:28 to play, the Bears (21-7, 9-6 Big 12) hit 3-pointers on six consecutive possessions to surge into the lead. Forward Taurean Prince scored 20 points off the bench to lead the Bears and knocked down three 3-pointers during the decisive 18-4 Baylor run. He was one of five Baylor players to finish in double figures.

Forward Jameel McKay scored a career-high 21 points to lead the Cyclones (20-7, 11-5), who missed an opportunity to tie Kansas for first place in the Big 12. Iowa State dropped into a tie for second in the conference with Oklahoma and West Virginia.

Northern Iowa, 68, Evansville 57

Guard Deon Mitchell scored 17 points to lead No. 10 Northern Iowa past Evansville in a Missouri Valley Conference game in Cedar Falls, Iowa.

The Panthers (27-2, 16-1 MVC) will play 11th-ranked Wichita State on Saturday in a showdown for the conference title and the top seed in the postseason tournament. The two teams are tied for first place in the standings.

Guard Paul Jesperson added 11 points for the Panthers, who weathered a 13-1 run by the Purple Aces early in the second half that trimmed the lead to 45-40 with 12:02 left before scoring eight straight points in the next 2:54 to secure the win.

Guard D.J. Balentine had 16 points to lead Evansville (19-10, 9-8) and center Egidijius Mockevicius had his 17th double-double of the season with 10 points and 10 rebounds.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Vanderbilt at Tennessee
The Commodores head to Tennessee tonight to face a Volunteers team that is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. Vanderbilt is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Commodores favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+1). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 26

Game 505-506: Northeastern at Elon (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northeastern 54.192; Elon 46.444
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 8
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (-5 1/2)

Game 507-508: Minnesota at Michigan State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 62.225; Michigan State 73.873
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-8 1/2)

Game 509-510: Nebraska at Ohio State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 60.727; Ohio State 72.954
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 12
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+14 1/2)

Game 511-512: Vanderbilt at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 66.352; Tennessee 64.728
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 1
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+1)

Game 513-514: WI-Milwaukee at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 55.051; Wright State 51.627
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Wright State by 2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+2)

Game 515-516: Delaware at Drexel (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 51.682; Drexel 50/882
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 1
Vegas Line: Drexel by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+2 1/2)

Game 517-518: Houston at Temple (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 52.036; Temple 70.912
Dunkel Line: Temple by 19
Vegas Line: Temple by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-14 1/2)

Game 519-520: Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 55.106; Appalachian State 45.991
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 9
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 5
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (-5)

Game 521-522: TX-San Antonio at Southern Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 53.586; Southern Mississippi 51.116
Dunkel Line: TX-San Antonio by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+4 1/2)

Game 523-524: Old Dominion at Rice (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 58.683; Rice 52.848
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 6
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+6 1/2)

Game 525-526: Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 45.243; Western Kentucky 59.136
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 14
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 12
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-12)

Game 527-528: Florida International at Marshall (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 47.805; Marshall 55.322
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Marshall by 5
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-5)

Game 529-530: UL-Monroe at South Alabama (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 49.793; South Alabama 50.954
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 1
Vegas Line: UL-Monroe by 2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+2)

Game 531-532: UTEP at Louisiana Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 57.355; Louisiana Tech 59.491
Dunkel Line: Louisiana Tech by 2
Vegas Line: Louisiana Tech by 5
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+5)

Game 533-534: WI-Green Bay at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 59.676; Illinois-Chicago 548132
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 9
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-9)

Game 535-536: Charlotte at North Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 59.260; North Texas 55.271
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 4
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-2)

Game 537-538: TX-Arlington at Arkansas State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 49.992; Arkansas State 51.079
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1
Vegas Line: TX-Arlington by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+1 1/2)

Game 539-540: Georgia State at AR-Little Rock (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 57.910; AR-Little Rock 54.476
Dunkel Line: Georgia State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgia State by 7
Dunkel Pick: AR-Little Rock (+7)

Game 541-542: Troy at Texas State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 44.260; Texas State 53.368
Dunkel Line: Texas State by 9
Vegas Line: Texas State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (-5 1/2)

Game 543-544: Rutgers at Purdue (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 49.968; Purdue 71.729
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 22
Vegas Line: Purdue by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-14 1/2)

Game 545-546: SMU at Memphis (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 66.092; Memphis 67.306
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 1
Vegas Line: SMU by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1 1/2)

Game 547-548: Arizona at Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 72.486; Colorado 64.284
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8
Vegas Line: Arizona by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+10 1/2)

Game 549-550: BYU at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 67.319; Portland 60.957
Dunkel Line: BYU by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: BYU by 4
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-4)

Game 551-552: CS-Fullerton at CS-Northridge (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 47.125; CS-Northridge 53.033
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 6
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (-3 1/2)

Game 553-554: UC-Irvine at Cal Poly (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 57.544; Cal Poly 56.800
Dunkel Line: UC-Irvine by 1
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 1
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+1)

Game 555-556: Pacific at Santa Clara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 49.813; Santa Clara 50.713
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 1
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 4
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+4)

Game 557-558: UC-Davis at UC-Santa Barbara (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 55.357; UC-Santa Barbara 61.840
Dunkel Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 5
Dunkel Pick: UC-Santa Barbara (-5)

Game 559-560: Arizona State at Utah (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 64.765; Utah 79.544
Dunkel Line: Utah by 15
Vegas Line: Utah by 12
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-12)

Game 561-562: Oregon State at Stanford (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 57.982; Stanford 69.560
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-8 1/2)

Game 563-564: San Diego at Gonzaga (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 59.622; Gonzaga 78.464
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 19
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 17
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-17)

Game 565-566: St. Mary's (CA) at San Francisco (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 62.891; San Francisco 61.991
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 1
Vegas Line: S. Mary's (CA) by 3
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3)

Game 567-568: Long Beach State at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 57.880; Hawaii 56.444
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Hawaii by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+3 1/2)

Game 569-570: East Tennessee State at The Citadel (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Tennessee State 48.771; The Citadel 45.248
Dunkel Line: East Tennessee State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: East Tennessee State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+6 1/2)

Game 571-572: Chattanooga at VMI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 53.086; VMI 50.651
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 4
Dunkel Pick: VMI (+4)

Game 573-574: Wofford at Mercer (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 56.947; Mercer 54.486
Dunkel Line: Wofford by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Wofford

Game 575-576: Western Carolina at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 47.245; Furman 40.240
Dunkel Line: Western Carolina by 7
Vegas Line: Western Carolina by 4
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (-4)

Game 577-578: Western Illinois at IUPUI (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 43.987; IUPUI 50.549
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: IUPUI by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (+8 1/2)

Game 579-580: Samford at NC-Greensboro (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 48.616; NC-Greensboro 47.515
Dunkel Line: Samford by 1
Vegas Line: NC-Greensboro by 3
Dunkel Pick: Samford (+3)

Game 581-582: Jacksonville State at Eastern Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 41.493; Eastern Kentucky 61.901
Dunkel Line: Eastern Kentucky by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Eastern Kentucky by 15
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (-15)

Game 583-584: NE-Omaha at IPFW (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 46.965; IPFW 60.094
Dunkel Line: IPFW by 13
Vegas Line: IPFW by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: IPFW (-9 1/2)

Game 585-586: SIU-Edwardsville at Austin Peay (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SIU-Edwardsville 51.080; Austin Peay 46.124
Dunkel Line: SIU-Edwardsville by 5
Vegas Line: SIU-Edwardsville by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SIU-Edwardsville (-1 1/2)

Game 587-588: North Dakota State at Oral Roberts (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 53.425; Oral Roberts 56.963
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 2
Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (-2)

Game 589-590: Northern Arizona at North Dakota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 48.032 North Dakota 46.981
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 1
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+3 1/2)

Game 591-592: Rider at Monmouth (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 52.808; Monmouth 51.721
Dunkel Line: Rider by 1
Vegas Line: Monmouth by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+2 1/2)

Game 593-594: Eastern Illinois at Murray State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 47.512; Murray State 67.146
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-14)

Game 595-596: Tennessee-Martin at Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 49.300; Tennessee State 40.457
Dunkel Line: Tennessee-Martin by 9
Vegas Line: Tennessee-Martin by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (-7 1/2)

Game 597-598: Tennessee Tech at Morehead State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 48.321; Morehead State 54.429
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 6
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+8)

Game 599-600: Southern Utah at Northern Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 45.853; Northern Colorado 50.225
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 8
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+8)

Game 601-602: Montana State at Eastern Washington (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 40.702; Eastern Washington 57.659
Dunkel Line: Eastern Washington by 17
Vegas Line: Eastern Washington by 14
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (-14)

Game 603-604: Montana at Idaho (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 52.825; Idaho 49.370
Dunkel Line: Montana by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 1
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-1)

Game 611-612: High Point at NC-Asheville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: High Point 50.519; NC-Asheville 51.471
Dunkel Line: NC-Asheville by 1
Vegas Line: High Point by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Ashville (+1 1/2)

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action

February 25, 2015


NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS(13-14) at OHIO ST BUCKEYES (19-8)

Value City Arena - Columbus, OH
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Ohio State -14.5

After being embarrassed at home on Sunday, Nebraska visits Ohio State trying to end a five game skid.

It was only a year ago that Nebraska was the surprise team in the conference, as they picked up their first NCAA berth since 1998. A season built on hope, with leaders returning, has turned into disaster for the Cornhuskers, as they hit a new low in a 28-point home loss to Iowa on Sunday. Following the game, Coach Tim Miles banned his players from all the amenities of Nebraska’s new facilities and from speaking to the media. Nebraska is 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS) in their last 8 games. Furthermore, they haven’t won a conference game on the road all season (0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS).

Coach Thad Matta’s host Buckeyes are also not playing their best ball of the season, having lost their last two (at Michigan State, at Michigan). The most recent loss to Michigan on Sunday, 64-57, was highlighted by sloppy play (9:14 A:TO ratio), and a first half that saw Ohio State fall 16 points down, rendering them unable to come all the way back for the road win. The Buckeyes return home to the friendly confines of Value City Arena where they are undefeated since the calendar flipped to 2015 (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS), with their lone conference home loss coming in late December to Iowa.

Historically, since Nebraska joined the Big Ten (2011) Ohio State has dominated this matchup, going 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS), and 3-0 in Value City Arena. The most recent game between these two teams was in the 2014 Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis, where Ohio State rallied from an 18-point second-half deficit to win. Nebraska’s lone win in this series was last season, in late January, when they defeated the then No. 17 Buckeyes in Lincoln, 68-62.

Nebraska’s outlook for this contest, and the rest of the season, is shockingly dim, as Coach Miles realized that his players needed a wake-up call with the facilities and media ban after the home loss to Iowa. The Cornhuskers will surely be underdogs in Columbus, and are 1-7 SU (1-5-1 ATS) as road underdogs this season. At the root of their issues all season is putting the ball in the basket (61.7 PPG, 13th in Big Ten, 306th in NCAA).

Nebraska is even worse on the road (55.2 PPG). Considering the Cornhuskers boast two of the conferences better offensive players in F Terran Petteway (18.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 2.9 APG) and G Shavon Shields (15.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 45% FG), Nebraska’s offensive issues become that much more mysterious. The fact of the matter is that they don’t have anything close to a third reliable offensive option.

Maybe F Walter Pitchford (7.5 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.3 threes/game) can fill that role. Pitchford likes to roam the perimeter, and has pitched in double-digit scoring in three straight games, after only going above 10 points once in his previous 12 conference games. After Pitchford, though, no Cornhusker has scored in double figures in any of Nebraska’s last five losses, and only one player (F Tarin Smith – 4.3 PPG) has scored more than five points in a game in that span. Besides the rare outburst from deep (10 threes at Maryland), the Cornhuskers have been awful from three (27% 3PT, 14th in Big Ten, 343rd in NCAA) in conference play.

Nebraska relies on its slow pace and defense (62 PPG allowed, 5th Big in Ten, 69th in NCAA) to keep games close, in hopes that Petteway or Shields can make big pressure shots down the stretch. That said, their field goal defense (50% versus Iowa, 47% at Maryland) in recent games hasn’t been fearsome at all.

As star freshman G D’Angelo Russell (19 PPG, 5.4 APG, 5.8 APG) has gone this season, so goes Ohio State. Russell struggled in the state of Michigan the past two weekends, only averaging 13 points on 36% FG. Russell also committed more turnovers than assists (2:5 A:TO) at Michigan for the first time since early January.

F Sam Thompson (10.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG) and F Jae’Sean Tate (8.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG) both shoot it well from the field (49% for Thompson, 58% for Tate) and both boast double-figure scoring potential nightly, they just need more opportunities to score.

The biggest mystery with the Buckeye offense is the disappearance of senior G Shannon Scott (7.6 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.6 SPG). Scott is a pure point guard who’s been forced to play off the ball for long stretches as Matta funnels his offense through Russell. Not a knockdown shooter, this has forced Scott into some major struggles on offense in the past month (5.7 PPG, 3.8 APG, 32% FG, 22% 3PT in last six games).

F Marc Loving (10.9 PPG) had started for most of the season, but is working his way back slowly into the rotation after a recent suspension and has been a non-factor in the past two contests (4 points in 17 minutes versus Michigan). If exciting freshman F Keita Bates-Diop (4.5 PPG, 0.8 BPG) can continue impressing in limited minutes (12 points in 19 minutes at Michigan) he could provide Matta with another dimension on both ends of the floor with his length, versatility, and potential.

If Ohio State can glean anything from Iowa’s victory over Nebraska, it’s that the Cornhuskers aren’t playing great defense at the moment. As long as the Buckeyes can control the pace, their 49.7% FG (1st in Big Ten, 5th in NCAA) would seem to indicate that their offensive woes should come to an end now that they’re back in Columbus versus a very vulnerable opponent.

ARIZONA WILDCATS (24-3) at COLORADO BUFFALOES (12-14)

Coors Events Center – Boulder, CO
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -10.5

Colorado tries to post a signature win during a miserable season when it hosts No. 7 Arizona on Thursday night.

The Wildcats have ripped off 10 wins in their past 11 games (8-3 ATS), which started with a 68-54 blowout of the Buffaloes on Jan. 15. That was one of Colorado's three losses to top-25 teams this season, as the club was also blown out twice by Utah by margins of 25 and 28 points.

The Buffs are 3-9 SU (4-7-1 ATS) in their past 12 games, which includes a 2-3 mark (SU and ATS) at home where they are 10-4 SU (8-5-1 ATS) this season. Arizona is 6-3 SU (5-4 ATS) in true road games this season and is also 12-2 SU (9-5 ATS) with a +17.3 PPG margin after having at least three days of rest. Colorado is 5-6 (SU and ATS) in this heavy rest scenario.

The Wildcats have dominated this series recently with five straight wins SU, all by double-digits and a +16.6 PPG margin, but the Buffaloes hold the 5-3 ATS advantage in the past eight meetings. This includes Colorado SU wins at home in 2012 and 2013, but Arizona rolled to an easy 88-61 road win in this series last February with 57 second-half points, marking its first victory in Boulder since 1973.

Arizona is excellent in nearly all facets with 75.6 PPG and only 58.7 PPG allowed for a whopping +16.9 PPG scoring margin. The team outshoots opponents by nearly 10 percent, with an offensive clip of 49.0% FG, while posting a 39.7% FG Pct. on defense. The Wildcats are able to do this with an admirable 1.2 Ast/TO ratio and +2.9 turnover margin. The only areas Arizona's offense isn't particularly strong in are three-point shooting (4.9 per game, 35.3% threes) and foul shooting (68.7% FT). The Wildcats have a very balanced offense with six players averaging at least 22.5 MPG and 8.8 PPG.

The team's scoring leader is freshman swingman Stanley Johnson (14.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG), who shoots 47% FG and 36% threes. He lit up Colorado for a career-high 22 points (7-of-15 FG, 8-of-9 FT) and eight rebounds on Jan. 15, but is coming off his worst offensive showing of his career on Saturday when he made just 1-of-9 FG in the win over UCLA. Junior F Brandon Ashley (11.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG) pulled down a game-high 11 rebounds (4 offensive) to go along with seven points in last month's win versus the Buffaloes. He has also scored 11+ points in eight of his past 10 games, but was dreadful in Saturday's win with just five points on 2-of-10 shooting.

F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (11.1 PPG, 6.6 RPG) shoots 53% FG, but was 1-for-6 FG in Saturday's win and 0-for-3 from the floor in the victory over Colorado earlier this season. But entering Saturday, the sophomore had posted 11+ points in six straight contests where he knocked down 62% of his shots. PG T.J. McConnell (9.9 PPG, 6.0 APG, 3.8 RPG) has a 50% FG clip and a stellar 3.1 Ast/TO ratio this season. He posted a well-rounded eight points, seven rebounds and six assists in the Jan. 15 victory over the Buffaloes, and is riding a five-game streak of double-figure scoring (14.0 PPG).

Seven-foot C Kaleb Tarczewski (8.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG) scored 14 points (5-of-7 FG) in just 25 minutes versus Colorado last month, and has 12.3 PPG on 70% FG (14-of-20) with 7.3 RPG in his past three games.

The Buffaloes only real chance in this game is to dominate the glass as it has done so often this season (+4.2 RPG margin). The team also blocks 4.0 shots per game, which helps limit opponents to 65.3 PPG on 41.0% FG. But this is not a good offensive club, averaging a mere 66.7 PPG on 42.4% FG and 35.1% threes. It also holds a minus-1.8 turnover margin with 13.4 turnovers committed per game.

The one consistent scorer for Colorado this season is G Askia Booker (17.0 PPG, 3.3 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG) who shoots 39% from the floor and 36% from three-point range. Booker scored 30 of his team's 54 points in the loss at Arizona last month, as he drained 11-of-17 shots (6-of-9 threes) with four rebounds and three assists to keep the final score somewhat respectable. Booker will need to improve greatly on Saturday's performance when he made just 2-of-14 FG in the 14-point loss at Oregon State.

C Josh Scott (12.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is a presence down low with a soft touch to pull opposing big men away from the rim, and he finally looks healthy after a long absence due to a back injury. Scott didn't play in the loss in Tucson on Jan. 15, but has yanked down 30 rebounds in his past three contests to go along with 7.0 PPG.

The team's third option on offense is junior swingman Xavier Johnson (11.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG) who is coming off a strong 12-point, nine-rebound effort in Saturday's loss. Johnson did not play versus the Wildcats last month, but faced them three times last season with very different results. After scoring 21 points (7-of-12 FG) in Tucson, he made just 1-of-10 shots at home for five points, before posting a respectable 11 points and five rebounds in the Pac-12 Tournament loss to Arizona last March.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Six of the best minor league prospects of the Houston Astros.........

1) Carlos Correa, SS-- Hit .325 in half season of A ball after breaking his leg.

2) Mark Appel, P-- High draft pick is 6-8, 5.93 as a pro. No bueno.

3) Mike Foltynewicz, P-- Threw 19 innings in big leagues LY; not bad.

20) Max Stassi, C-- Got 20 ABs with the big club last summer.

24) Ronald Torreyes, 2B-- Hit .298 in AAA LY, will have to change positions.

28) Asher Wolchiechowski, P-- Has already thrown 210 innings in AAA.



**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here......

13) Some quick thoughts on Bill Walton, basketball announcer.......
-- He is one of the greatest college basketball players ever, winning two national titles and losing in the national semi-finals the third year he played.
-- He had a bad stuttering problem as a young man, so his getting paid to talk now is an act of courage, something to be admired.
-- He is positive, upbeat and different; Lord knows ESPN needs someone as an analyst who isn't bland- they've gone that way with most of their recent hires.
-- He does not talk about the game all the time-- I guarantee you that you will learn something you did not know during a Walton broadcast; I cannot guarantee that it will have anything to do with basketball.
-- He prepares and works at it; Who else would tell you it was Vanna White's birthday or that the guy who wrote One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest lives in Oregon?
-- He tends to be more reserved when he works UCLA home games, and he feeds off the game he is working-- he is way better on close, fast-paced games.
-- If you don't like him, hit the mute button, but we need more positive energy in this world, and Walton is a 6-foot-11 fountain of positive energy.

12) Idaho 92, Montana 87 OT-- Griz gagged away a road game, fell out of a tie for first in Big Sky, which means they're unlikely to host the Big Sky tournament- they could knock Eastern Washington out of first place Saturday. .

11) Green Bay's Kiefer Sykes went over the 2,000-point mark last night; his team has won 46 games (14 losses) the last two years. Not sure he has enough help for them to win the Horizon tourney next month, but he is one hell of a player.

10) Minnesota 96, Michigan State 90 OT-- Gophers won for the first time in last 15 tries in East Lansing, as Spartans gagged away a late lead with horrendous defense. Not sure why a team like Michigan State plays so much better on the road, but they do.

9) Vanderbilt 73, Tennessee 65-- Commodores shot 84% in second half, then one of its players taunted an opponent after the game, prompting Vandy coach Stallings to flip out on his player in a public/profane way, so in the end, everyone lost in this one.

8) If you bet the road team in all of Tennessee's SEC games, you'd be 14-1 against the spread, which just doesn't happen very much.

7) Utah 83, Arizona State 41-- Game was 41-9 at the half. 41 to freakin' 9. It is safe to assume the Utes weren't looking ahead to the Arizona game.

6) Albany Great Danes will be the top seed in the America East tourney; my alma mater won this tourney the last two years, as the #4/#5 seed. Now the pressure is on them to win as the top seed. Easier said than done.

5) My cousin Kevin went to St Francis NY, one of five original D-I teams that has never been in the NCAA tournament, but they've got a 4-game lead in the NEC and are a favorite to win the tournament. Terriers started out 0-5 in November, but they're rolling now at 21-9, winning their last nine games.

4) Look out for UCSB in the Big West tournament; they got star big man Williams back from a shoulder injury, have a sharp coach (also named Williams) and are gaining positive momentum as they head towards the tournament in Anaheim.

3) Murray State is 25-4, 15-0 in the OVC but it looks like they still have to win the OVC tournament to make the NCAAs; lot of pressure on the top seeds in these middle of the road or lower leagues- their season is a failure if they don't win the tournament.

2) Its funny that Terry Collins can't get fired by the Mets, despite no winning seasons in four tries; he got fired at his other two jobs (Angels/Astros) despite having winning seasons in five of those six years. Life is funny sometimes.

1) Mets hitting coach Kevin Long once played CF on a summer league team with Curt Schilling, who says Long was the fastest guy on the team. It is unclear why Bronx cut the well-regarded Long loose after last year, but he didn't have to move, seeing as the two taxpayer-funded baseball stadiums in NYC are eight miles apart.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Siena at Quinnipiac
The Saints head to Quinnipiac tonight to face a Bobcats team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games overall. Siena is the pick (+9) according to Dunkel, which has the Bobcats favored by only 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Siena (+9). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 27

Game 829-830: Harvard at Cornell (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 60.749; Cornell 51.342
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-6 1/2)

Game 831-832: Pennsylvania at Brown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 45.565; Brown 48.982
Dunkel Line: Brown by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Brown by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+5 1/2)

Game 833-834: Princeton at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 53.948; Yale 63.843
Dunkel Line: Yale by 10
Vegas Line: Yale by 7
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-7)

Game 835-836: Dartmouth at Columbia (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 52.419; Columbia 56.007
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+5 1/2)

Game 837-838: Valparaiso at Cleveland State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 57.518; Cleveland State 62.133
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-2 1/2)

Game 839-840: St. Peter's at Marist (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 53.466; Marist 49.878
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (-1 1/2)

Game 841-842: Manhattan at Iona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 54.709; Iona 60.172
Dunkel Line: Iona by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 8
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+8)

Game 843-844: Siena at Quinnipiac (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 47.602; Quinnipiac 54.191
Dunkel Line: Quinnipiac by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Quinnipiac by 9
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+9)

Game 845-846: Fairfield at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 45.729; Canisius 57.227
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-8 1/2)

Game 847-848: Ohio at Akron (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 49.141; Akron 57.012
Dunkel Line: Akron by 8
Vegas Line: Akron by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+10 1/2)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, February 27

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HARVARD (19 - 5) at CORNELL (12 - 14) - 2/27/2015, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CORNELL is 123-92 ATS (+21.8 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
CORNELL is 70-39 ATS (+27.1 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
HARVARD is 3-2 against the spread versus CORNELL over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 5-0 straight up against CORNELL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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PENNSYLVANIA (7 - 16) at BROWN (12 - 15) - 2/27/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PENNSYLVANIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
PENNSYLVANIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
PENNSYLVANIA is 75-48 ATS (+22.2 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
BROWN is 3-2 against the spread versus PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
BROWN is 3-2 straight up against PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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PRINCETON (12 - 13) at YALE (19 - 8) - 2/27/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
YALE is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all lined games this season.
YALE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
YALE is 75-51 ATS (+18.9 Units) on Friday nights since 1997.
YALE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
YALE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
PRINCETON is 88-61 ATS (+20.9 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
PRINCETON is 103-76 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PRINCETON is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
YALE is 4-1 against the spread versus PRINCETON over the last 3 seasons
YALE is 4-1 straight up against PRINCETON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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DARTMOUTH (10 - 14) at COLUMBIA (13 - 11) - 2/27/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DARTMOUTH is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games this season.
DARTMOUTH is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
DARTMOUTH is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
DARTMOUTH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.
DARTMOUTH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) on Friday nights this season.
DARTMOUTH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after a conference game this season.
COLUMBIA is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
DARTMOUTH is 3-2 against the spread versus COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
DARTMOUTH is 3-2 straight up against COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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VALPARAISO (25 - 5) at CLEVELAND ST (17 - 12) - 2/27/2015, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND ST is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND ST is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND ST is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VALPARAISO is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) on Friday nights since 1997.
CLEVELAND ST is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND ST is 52-92 ATS (-49.2 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND ST is 3-2 against the spread versus VALPARAISO over the last 3 seasons
VALPARAISO is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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ST PETERS (13 - 16) at MARIST (5 - 23) - 2/27/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST PETERS is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST PETERS is 18-29 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ST PETERS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ST PETERS is 14-24 ATS (-12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ST PETERS is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games in February games since 1997.
ST PETERS is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.
ST PETERS is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
MARIST is 5-0 against the spread versus ST PETERS over the last 3 seasons
ST PETERS is 3-2 straight up against MARIST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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MANHATTAN (15 - 12) at IONA (23 - 6) - 2/27/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MANHATTAN is 38-23 ATS (+12.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
MANHATTAN is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
IONA is 45-69 ATS (-30.9 Units) in February games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
MANHATTAN is 4-3 against the spread versus IONA over the last 3 seasons
IONA is 4-3 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SIENA (10 - 17) at QUINNIPIAC (14 - 13) - 2/27/2015, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
SIENA is 2-1 against the spread versus QUINNIPIAC over the last 3 seasons
SIENA is 2-1 straight up against QUINNIPIAC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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FAIRFIELD (7 - 21) at CANISIUS (15 - 13) - 2/27/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CANISIUS is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CANISIUS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) in road games in February games since 1997.
FAIRFIELD is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
CANISIUS is 4-1 against the spread versus FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
CANISIUS is 4-1 straight up against FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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OHIO U (9 - 17) at AKRON (17 - 11) - 2/27/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
OHIO U is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OHIO U is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
OHIO U is 85-57 ATS (+22.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
AKRON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in February games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 5-2 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
AKRON is 5-2 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, February 27

Akron lost its last four games, all by 5 or less points; Ohio (+2.5) upset the Zips 83-82 at home Feb 4, making 11-18 from arc in game they were down 11 in with 12:30 left. Zips made 18-36 from arc, were 0-6 on foul line. Ohio lost its last five games, is 2-5 as road underdog, losing last four on foreign soil, three by 11+ points. Akron is 5-2-1 as a home favorite, but lost last two home games, to Toledo/Miami. MAC single digit home favorites are 15-13-1 vs spread.

Harvard has one-game lead in Ivy with four games left they beat Cornell 61-40 (-11) at home 13 nights ago, after trailing 24-21 at half- Big Red hit dismal 23.9% from floor. Crimson won its last eight games, four by 8 or less points they're 3-1 as road favorites, winning all five away games, by 11-3-25-2-2 points. Cornell lost its last three games by 21-1-11 points they're 2-3 at home, with losses by 2-3-8 points. Ivy League home dogs are 5-8 against spread.

Brown (+2) made 9-17 on arc, won 71-55 at Penn Feb 14, after trailing at half by a hoop; Bruins are 2-3 at home, beating Dartmouth by 2, Cornell by 1- they lost to Harvard in OT at home. Quakers lost last five games (1-4 vs spread) with four losses by 16+ points; they're 3-2 as underdogs on road, with losses by 4-27-23-5 points and win at Cornell. Ivy League home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-5-1 vs spread.

Yale trails Harvard by game with four to play; they play Crimson a week from now, so need to keep pace. Bulldogs (-2.5) won 81-73 at Princeton Feb 14, game they trailed by 8 with 10:35 left- both teams made 62%+ of 2-point shots. Yale is 2-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 4-15-11, with losses to Harvard/Columbia. Tigers are 3-0 as road underdogs, with road losses by 8-8 points, wins at Columbia/Dartmouth. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 5-7 vs spread.

Dartmouth (-3) made 7-12 from arc, beat Columbia 61-49 at home Feb 14 in game they led by hoop at half, but they're just 2-6 in last eight games, 1-2 as road underdogs, losing all four road games by 7-11-15-3 points. Lions won last two games, covered four of last five, upsetting Yale in last game but they're 2-3 SU at home, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 21-27 points. Ivy League home teams are 9-12-1 against the spread.

Valparaiso leads three other teams by game in Horizon, one of which is Cleveland State, who Crusaders (-5) beat 58-56 at home Jan 10, surviving 19 turnovers (-9). Valpo won its last seven games, 4-2 on Horizon road, with losses by 1 and in OT. Cleveland State lost three of last four games, is 2-4 as home favorite, even though they won all seven home games in conference. Underdogs are 10-5 vs spread in Horizon games with spread of 3 or less points.

St Peter's (1-3) beat Marist 79-67 at home Jan 4, making 10-20 from arc with +7 (14-7) turnover ratio. Peacocks lost last three games, scoring an average of 51.3 ppg they're 3-5 in last eight road games, 1-1 as favorites on road- they're 3-8 overall as MAAC favorites. Marist lost its last five games, is 2-4 as home underdog- four of their last six games were decided by 4 or less points. MAAC home teams are 11-17-1 vs spread in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Iona (-1.5) won 70-67 at Manhattan two weeks ago, in rivalry game that saw Iona turn ball over 21 times (-10) but make 11-18 from arc. Iona won its last ten games but last four were by 4 or less- they're 4-5 as favorite at home, despite winning all nine home games. Jaspers are 3-0 since losing to Gaels; they've won five of last seven road games, are 3-2 as underdogs on MAAC road. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-17 vs spread.

Siena lost seven of last nine games, losing last three, all at home. Saints are 3-3 as road underdogs, with only two road losses by more than eight points- they (-3.5) pounded Quinnipiac 88-67 at home Dec 5, making 58% of its 2-pointers, with +8 (16-8) turnover ratio and only -3 ratio on boards in game that was 40-38 at half. Bobcats lost their last three also, losing two home games by total of five points- they're 3-5 as favorites at home. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-17 vs spread.

Canisius (-4) won 64-50 at Fairfield Jan 22, in brickfest where teams hit a combined 20-44 on foul line. Griffins won three of their last four games, are 3-4 as a home favorite, also losing three of last four at home. Fairfield snapped losing streak at 10 in last game Saturday; they're 4-3-1 as road underdogs, losing last six away games, four by 9 or less points. Stags are turning ball over 20.7% of time, despite playing third-slowest tempo in league. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 8-17 vs spread.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Friday, February 27

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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6:00 PM
SIENA vs. QUINNIPIAC
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Siena's last 6 games on the road
Siena is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Quinnipiac is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Quinnipiac's last 7 games at home

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 6:30 PM
HARVARD vs. CORNELL
Harvard is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Harvard's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cornell
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cornell's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cornell's last 5 games at home

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 7:00 PM
PENNSYLVANIA vs. BROWN
Pennsylvania is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pennsylvania's last 7 games on the road
Brown is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home
Brown is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 7:00 PM
SAINT PETER'S vs. MARIST
Saint Peter's is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saint Peter's last 9 games on the road
Marist is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Saint Peter's
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Marist's last 6 games

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 7:00 PM
MANHATTAN vs. IONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Manhattan's last 6 games on the road
Manhattan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Iona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Iona is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 7:00 PM
PRINCETON vs. YALE
Princeton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Yale
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Princeton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Yale
Yale is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Princeton
Yale is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Princeton

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 7:00 PM
FAIRFIELD vs. CANISIUS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Fairfield's last 5 games on the road
Fairfield is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Canisius's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Canisius's last 6 games when playing at home against Fairfield

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 8:00 PM
OHIO vs. AKRON
Ohio is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Akron
Ohio is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Akron
Akron is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ohio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Akron's last 7 games when playing Ohio

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 8:00 PM
DARTMOUTH vs. COLUMBIA
Dartmouth is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dartmouth's last 7 games when playing on the road against Columbia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Columbia's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Columbia's last 5 games at home

See more trends!
FEBRUARY 27, 10:00 PM
VALPARAISO vs. CLEVELAND STATE
Valparaiso is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Valparaiso's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland State's last 6 games
Cleveland State is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Friday, February 27


Over cashed out big in college hoops Thursday

If you enjoyed offense or had the over in NCAAB action Thursday, you likely walked away happy. There were 50 games listed with a total in college hoops with an over/under mark of 32-18.

58 teams scored 70 or more points in Thursday's action, meaning that 46 percent on teams that hit the hardwood scored 70 points at least.

On the season to date, the over has hit on 50.45 percent of games.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Tips

February 27, 2015

**Northern Iowa at Wichita State**

-- Wichita State (26-3 straight up, 15-11-1 against the spread) is unbeaten in 14 home games with a 6-5-1 spread record. The Shockers have won seven in a row and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six contests.

-- Gregg Marshall's team is off of Wednesday's 63-53 win over Indiana State as a nine-point road favorite. Darius Carter torched the Sycamores for 20 points and 11 rebounds on 8-of-12 shooting from the field. Fred VanVleet finished with 15 points, five assists and four rebounds, while Tekele Cotton had 12 points, six boards and handed out three dimes. Ron Baker had one of his worst games of the season, making just 1-of-11 from the field and 1-of-4 from the free-throw line. He scored a season-low three points.

-- Baker is averaging 15.2 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. He's making 40.5 percent of his attempts from 3-point range and has a 64/35 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Baker also has 35 steals through 29 games. VanVleet averages 12.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game, while dishing out 154 assists compared to just 49 turnovers. He has a team-high 53 steals.

-- Northern Iowa (27-2 SU, 16-8-3 ATS) hasn't tasted defeat since New Year's Day when it lost a 52-49 decision at Evansville in its Missouri Valley Conference opener. Ben Jacobsen's club has won 16 in a row since then and it is 10-2-3 ATS in its last 15 contests.

-- Northern Iowa is off a 68-57 win over Evansville on Wednesday, but it failed to cover for the first time since Jan. 21 as a 12-point home 'chalk.' Deon Mitchell was the catalyst with 17 points, four assists and a pair of steals. Seth Tuttle added 10 points and eight rebounds.

-- Northern Iowa is led by Tuttle, who averages team-highs in scoring (15.6 points per game), assists (3.2 APG), rebounds (6.6 RPG), field-goal percentage (62.7%) and blocked shots (0.7 BPG).

-- Northern Iowa is 18th in the RPI Rankings, going 1-1 versus the Top 50 and 7-1 against the Top 100. The Panthers' best win was over Wichita State in the first meeting.

-- Wichita State is Northern 14 in the RPI with a 1-2 record against the Top 50 and a 6-3 ledger versus the Top 100. The Shockers' best wins are over Tulsa, Seton Hall and Alabama. They have a neutral-court triumph over Memphis. In addition to the loss at Northern Iowa, Wichita State lost at Utah (69-68) and fell on a neutral court against George Washington (60-54).

-- When these MVC adversaries collided in Cedar Falls on Jan. 31, Northern Iowa collected a 70-54 win as a two-point home underdog. Tuttle enjoyed a monster performance, tallying 29 points and seven rebounds on 9-of-13 shooting from the field. Wes Washpun chipped in with 16 points, three boards, three assists and two steals. In the losing effort, VanVleet had a team-best 18 points. However, VanVleet and Ron Baker combined to make just 7-of-22 shots from the floor.

-- The 'over' is 13-12-1 overall for the Shockers, but the 'under' is 6-4 in their home games.

-- The 'over' is 12-11-3 overall for the Panthers.

-- As of late Friday afternoon, one offshore book had the Shockers favored by six.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Arkansas at Kentucky**

-- For the first time since the mid-1990s when Nolan Richardson and Rick Pitino were roaming the sidelines at Kentucky and Arkansas, the Wildcats and Razorbacks are the top dogs in the SEC. And that's how it should be because these are the two best hoops programs in the league. Of course, Billy Donovan has been the reason that Florida has shared top status in the league with UK for much of the last two decades. The other reason was the dismissal of Richardson, who led the Hogs to the 1994 national title. Since his firing in 2002, Arkansas has won only one -- ONE!! -- NCAA Tournament game. But my point is this: Arkansas should be the second-best basketball program in the SEC. In terms of tradition, facilities and fan support, the Razorbacks are second only to UK in college basketball. At least that's how it should be and is this year, as Mike Anderson is about to take the Hogs to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in his four-year tenure.

-- Since failing to cover the spread in five consecutive games, Kentucky (28-0 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) has gone 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games. The Wildcats went to The Hump in Starkville on Wednesday night and captured a 74-56 win over Mississippi State as 18-point road 'chalk.' Trey Lyles led the way with 18 points and six rebounds. Aaron Harrison added 16 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns finished with 12 points, 10 boards and a pair of blocked shots.

-- John Calipari's team has won all 17 of its games at Rupp Arena while posting an 8-9 spread record.

-- Arkansas (23-5 SU, 14-13 ATS) has won three in a row and four of the last five head-to-head meetings with UK both SU and ATS. The Razorbacks swept the season series last year with a pair of overtime wins over the Cats. At Rupp on Feb. 27, Anderson's squad won a 71-67 decision as a 10-point underdog. Michael Qualls led the way with 14 points.

-- Arkansas is led by sophomore power forward Bobby Portis, who leads the team in scoring (17.6 PPG), rebounding (8.5 RPG), field-goal percentage (56.4%) and blocked shots (1.6 BPG). Portis is probably the favorite to win SEC Player of the Year honors.

-- Arkansas has won seven in a row since losing a heartbreaker at Florida on Jan. 31, but it has failed to cover the number in three consecutive outings. The Hogs won an 81-75 decision over Texas A&M on Tuesday, but they disappointed their backers by blowing a 20-point lead and getting back-doored as 7.5-point home favorites. Portis scored a team-best 22 points, while Rashad Madden had 11 points, five board and five assists.

-- Arkansas has been a road underdog five times this year, producing a 4-1 spread record with three outright wins at Ole Miss, at SMU and at Georgia.

-- Kentucky is ranked No. 1 in the RPI with 10 wins over the Top 50 and 15 victories over Top-100 foes.

-- Arkansas is No. 19 in the RPI, going 5-2 against the Top 50 and 8-5 versus the Top 100. The Razorbacks' best win of the year came at SMU and they also have quality road wins at Georgia and at Ole Miss.

-- The 'under' is 17-11 overall for UK, 11-6 in its home games. However, the 'over' is on a 7-2 run in the Wildcats' last seven games.

-- The 'over' is 14-12 overall for Arkansas, but it has seen the 'over' go 7-3 in its last 10 games.

-- The 'over' is 6-3-1 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these SEC rivals.

-- One offshore had UK favored by 15 as of late Friday afternoon.

-- CBS will have the telecast at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- After serving a three-game suspension, Dorian Finney-Smith will return to the lineup Saturday for Florida's home game vs. Tennessee. Michael Frazier II, UF's leading scorer, has missed five straight games with a high-ankle sprain. He's getting close to returning and is considered 'questionable' against the Volunteers. Eli Carter (8.2 PPG) missed practice Thursday and has a strep throat for the second time this season. Carter is also 'questionable.'

-- Florida was favored by six late Friday afternoon. The Gators are an abysmal 4-8 ATS in 12 games as home favorites this year.

-- Billy Donovan will be gunning for his 500th career win for the third straight game. He would become the second-youngest coach in NCAA history (behind only Bobby Knight's pace) to reach the 500-win mark.

-- I'm calling it right now -- Georgia beats Kentucky next week at Stegeman Coliseum.

-- Alabama guard Ricky Tarrant (13.1 PPG) has been ruled 'out' for the rest of the season. The transfer from Tulane suffered a leg injury against Florida and will undergo season-ending surgery.

-- Drexel suffered a crushing blow this week when star Damion Lee was ruled out for the rest of the year with a broken hand. Lee was averaging 21.4 points and 6.1 rebounds per game.

-- Houston's L.J. Rose (9.8 PPG, 5.3 APG) will miss the rest of the year with a foot injury.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Top Action

February 27, 2015


TEXAS LONGHORNS (17-11) at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (22-6)

Allen Fieldhouse – Lawrence, KS
Tip-off: Saturday, 5:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: N/A

Texas looks to end its recent struggles with a win on the road over No. 8 Kansas Saturday.

Texas lost 71-64 at West Virginia on Tuesday and the team has now lost three straight games and seven of its past 10. The Longhorns turned the ball over 17 times against the Mountaineers and this team will need to stop making careless mistakes, as they are now on the NCAA tournament bubble after starting the season off very well. No. 8 Kansas, meanwhile, is coming off of a 70-63 loss at Kansas State on Monday and the Jayhawks have now lost two of their past three games. Kansas has also lost three straight games ATS and will need to shoot the ball better against Texas, as the team shot 15.4% from behind the arc in the loss to Kansas State.

The Jayhawks and Longhorns met on Jan. 24, when Kansas won 75-62 as a 4-point road underdog. The Jayhawks have dominated this head-to-head series recently, going 8-2 SU but just 5-5 ATS in their past 10 meetings. Texas has only won once SU in its 11 trips to Allen Fieldhouse, so it will really need to dig deep if it’s going to pick up a victory in what is a must-win game for the team. While the Longhorns are just 4-6 SU on the road this season, they are 7-3 ATS in those games. They are, however, 4-6 SU and ATS when coming off of a SU loss. Kansas, meanwhile, is 13-0 SU and 8-4 ATS at home this season. The Jayhawks are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS when coming off of a SU loss this season as well. Kansas is not dealing with any injuries in this game, but Texas could be without F Jonathan Holmes (Disciplinary) after his ejection last game.

Texas started this season with a 10-1 record, but everything has gone way downhill since then. This Longhorns team was once a near-lock to earn a good seed in the NCAA tournament and now it still needs to win a game or two in order to even make the tournament. Texas is not a great team offensively, averaging 68.7 PPG (150th in NCAA) on 44.1% shooting (143rd in NCAA). Where the team is solid though is on the defensive end, allowing just 60.5 PPG (40th in NCAA) thanks to 7.4 BPG (1st in NCAA). The Longhorns also rebound the ball very well, grabbing 40.3 RPG (4th in NCAA).

G Isaiah Taylor (13.4 PPG, 4.4 APG, 3.5 RPG) is one of the most important players for this Texas team. Taylor is as good as any point guard in the nation, but he’s been struggling with his shot (40% FG, 29% 3PT). Taylor is also averaging 4.0 turnovers per game over the past two contests and that is something that must change. Texas needs its leader to take care of the basketball and knock down some timely jumpers against Kansas. He had 23 points and five rebounds the last time these teams played and if he can come through with that type of performance again then his team should have a good shot of pulling off a big upset.

With F Jonathan Holmes (10.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG) potentially missing this game for disciplinary reasons, F Myles Turner (11.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.6 BPG) could see a huge increase in minutes. He was in foul trouble against the Mountaineers and played just 24 minutes, but he had three straight games with 10+ rebounds before meeting West Virginia. Turner is a good shooter and has excellent timing as a shot-blocker. He’ll need to come up big with Holmes likely missing this one. C Cameron Ridley (8.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG) will also need to have a big game in this one. With Holmes out, Ridley will need to be big on the glass and he’s averaging just 3.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG over the past two contests. His dip in production is a big reason this team is struggling to pull out wins. G Demarcus Holland (7.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.5 APG) had a big game against West Virginia, finishing with 14 points in 29 minutes. He is an outstanding outside shooter (48% 3PT) and could provide a major offensive spark in this one.

Kansas is an extremely well balanced team, averaging 71.8 PPG (68th in NCAA) on 44.7% shooting (107th in NCAA) and allowing just 64.6 PPG (128th in NCAA). This team rebounds well (38.0 RPG, 30th in NCAA) and also knows how to share the ball on offense (14.1 APG, 78th in NCAA). F Perry Ellis (14.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG) is Kansas’ best player and he’s been on a tear lately, averaging 23.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 2.0 SPG over the past two contests. The last time Ellis faced Texas, the forward had 14 points, five rebounds and three assists in 33 minutes.

The Longhorns could be shorthanded inside with Holmes likely to miss this game, so Ellis will need to go at the basket aggressively on Saturday. F Cliff Alexander (7.1 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) could also get a chance to play some extended minutes in this one. Alexander has played just 11 minutes or less in three straight contests, but he was a monster against Texas in their last meeting. In 27 minutes, Alexander finished the game with 15 points, nine rebounds and two assists. This could very well be a good matchup for the tough, first-year player and Bill Self may opt to give him another chance.

G Frank Mason III (12.1 PPG, 4.3 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.4 SPG) was lousy against Kansas State, finishing with just four points (1-for-8 FG, 0-for-2 3PT) in 29 minutes. He had averaged 16.0 PPG in his previous two games and must find his stroke against a very good Texas defense. G Wayne Selden Jr. (9.6 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.7 RPG) is averaging just 5.3 PPG over the past three games. Selden Jr. is usually a very reliable scorer for this Kansas team, but he has gotten away from his strength of driving to the basket. The Jayhawks need him to attack the rim and not settle for jumpers against Texas or they could end up being upset at home.

SYRACUSE ORANGE (18-10) at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (25-3)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: N/A

Syracuse storms into Durham to take on No. 4 Duke, looking to take out its second top-10 opponent in a row.

Only in year two of this newly christened ACC rivalry, and due to the self-imposed postseason ban for the Syracuse Orange, this game may have a different feel to it than the one where Orange Coach Jim Boeheim was rendered jacketless in 2014. Postseason or not, Syracuse has gone 3-3 SU (3-3 ATS) since announcing its punishment on Feb. 4th, but they’ve come to play in their biggest games, with wins over then No. 12 Louisville, and a win on Tuesday at No. 9 Notre Dame.

No. 4 Duke is fresh off a shockingly close overtime victory at ACC bottom-feeder, Virginia Tech (91-86) on Wednesday (a game they were favored to win by 16). Duke does, however, stretch their win streak to 8 games with the win. They also welcomed back stalwart freshman C Jahlil Okafor (18.4 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 67% FG) from a 1-game absence due to an ankle injury. Okafor responded with a monster outing in Blacksburg on Wednesday, going for a career-high 30 points. During Duke’s current eight game win streak, they’re 4-4 ATS. The Blue Devils are 6-1 SU (4-3 ATS) at home in conference this season. The total has gone OVER in each of Duke’s last four games. Syracuse is 4-3 SU (2-4-1 ATS) on the road in conference this season, and the total has gone Under in four of Syracuse’s past six road games.

Historically, Duke is 2-1 SU (2-0-1 ATS) versus the Orange since Syracuse joined the ACC last season. Syracuse’s lone win was the inaugural ACC meeting between these two that resulted in a thrilling 91-89 win in the Carrier Dome. Duke won the most recent meeting, 80-72 (barely covering the 7.5-point spread) just two Saturdays ago in Syracuse, as Okafor led the way with 23 points and 13 rebounds. The three results in this series to date have all come within two points of the spread at tip time.

With no postseason play to aim for, every ranked opponent has become the Syracuse Orange’s “Super Bowl”, so to speak. For senior four-year starter, C Rakeem Christmas (18.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.5 BPG) this is especially true. Enjoying a spectacular year, having quadrupled his career scoring average in the previous three years, Christmas is arguably the most improved player in the country. While Christmas is shooting 57% from the field this season, he struggled mightily at home versus Duke earlier this month to just 5-for-17 from the field and 11 points. Given that Syracuse plays zone, and Duke has started to play more zone in conference play as well, you won’t see as much of “Christmas versus Okafor” as you’d think, but given that he fouled out in only 28 minutes against Notre Dame on Tuesday, Christmas will have to be diligent on defense to avoid being torpedoed with fouls in one of the harshest settings for visiting players in all of sports, Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Syracuse G Michael Gbinije (13 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 SPG) is also enjoying a career season. He’ll make his second appearance visiting the campus that got his letter-of-intent, as Gbinije is a Duke transfer. Now given 35 minutes per game to spread his wings, Gbinije scored a career-high 27 points (five threes) at home in the loss to Duke earlier this month. Gbinije has been a dynamo in the past eight games, filling up the box score regularly while leading the Orange in scoring (18.4 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.6 SPG, 54% FG, 48% 3PT). The Orange, who only regularly play six men, will also need junior sharpshooting G Trevor Cooney (13.5 PPG, 1.9 SPG, 2.4 threes/game) to find his touch, as he’s hit an awful 11-game stretch (32% FG, 23% 3PT – 20-for-89) that can be partially attributed to a sore back (according to Coach Boeheim). The vaunted 2-3 zone has been very effective as of late, as only Duke has broken 65 points versus the Orange in their past four games. The Orange held both Louisville and Notre Dame, their last two top-25 wins, to .96 and .87 points per possession, respectively. However, they didn’t have such luck against Duke (1.16 points per possession; 47% FG, 7-15 from three).

The Blue Devils will have to perform better than their escape act in Blacksburg on Wednesday if they are to defeat a hungry Syracuse team. They match up well versus the Orange, though. Even with their shortened rotation, Duke boasts enough size with Okafor, F Justise Winslow (12 PPG, 5.7 RPG – 15.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG in last four games) and F Amile Jefferson (7.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) to create a big advantage on the glass versus the smaller Orange. The Blue Devils rank second in conference on the glass (37.4 RPG) during conference play, and outrebounded Syracuse 42-32 in the Carrier Dome earlier this month in their win. Duke’s backcourt of G Tyus Jones (11.5 PPG, 5.7 APG, 88% FT) and G Quinn Cook (15.9 PPG, 47% FG, 41% 3PT – 2.9 threes/game) have also been a terror to contain for defenses lately, as you’d expect for a Blue Devils team that has such an explosive offensive attack (81 PPG, 5th in NCAA).

Cook has been especially unconscious lately, averaging 23 points per game in his last four contests while shooting 54% from the field and hitting an absurd 4.3 threes per game on 50% shooting from deep. Cook, a senior, has scored at least 22 points in four of his last five contests while the freshman, Jones, has averaged an eye-popping 8.8 assists per game on those last five contests as well. The issue with Jones and Cook, however, are on the defensive end, as time and time again, they’re allowing career performances to their guard counterparts (Gbinije in Duke’s last meeting with Syracuse; Virginia Tech reserve Jalen Hudson going for 20 on Wednesday, Devon Bookert on Florida State going for a season-high 23 points on Feb. 9). G Matt Jones (5.6 PPG, 19.6 MPG) has seen a boost in production and playing time (7.8 PPG, 26 MPG) as a regular member of the rotation with the departure of G Rasheed Sulaimon. While Jones is far-and-away the last option on offense for the Blue Devils, the sophomore carries with him a reputation as a knock down shooter, which he’s not yet realized in his young career. Still, don’t be surprised to see him playing a key role in stretching Syracuse’s vaunted zone.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Late Tips

February 27, 2015

This Saturday night’s schedule in men’s college basketball features a foursome of teams in action that have serious aspirations of much bigger things come the month of March. First, the No. 4 Duke Blue Devils will play host to Syracuse in an ACC clash before two teams vying for the Pac-12 regular season title square-off against each other when No. 7 Arizona goes on the road to face No. 13 Utah. To close things out in the nightcap, we head out to the West Coast Conference where BYU will go on the road to tangle with No. 3 Gonzaga.

Syracuse Orange vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Duke -14 ½

The Orange come into this matchup fresh-off this past Tuesday’s impressive 65-60 upset of Notre Dame as 8 ½-point road underdogs. They are now 5-2-1 against the spread this season when closing as underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Senior forward Rakeem Christmas continues to lead the way with 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds a game. Syracuse is averaging 69.2 points per game and shooting 44 percent from the field.

Duke needed overtime to get past Virginia Tech 91-86 this past Wednesday as a heavy 15 ½-point road favorite. The Blue Devils are now an even 5-5 ATS while alternating wins and losses in their last 10 games. The total has gone OVER in their last four contests. They remain the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation with 81 PPG and they are ranked third in shooting the ball with a 50.2 field goal percentage. Freshman sensation Jahlil Okafor leads Duke in both points (18.4) and rebounds (9.4) per game.

Betting Trends

-- The Orange are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 conference games and they are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in 13 of their last 19 games following an ATS win.

-- The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss and they have gone 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on Saturday. The total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 14 home games.

-- Duke has won two of three meetings since Syracuse joined the ACC last season including an 80-72 victory on Feb. 14 this year as a 7 ½-point road favorite. The Blue Devils are 2-0-1 ATS and the total has gone OVER in two of the three games.

No. 7 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 13 Utah Utes (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Utah -2

Arizona rolled over Colorado 82-54 this past Thursday as a nine-point road favorite to improve to 13-2 SU in conference play. The Wildcats have gone a profitable 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six outings. Four of five starters scored in double figures against the Buffaloes led by freshman forward Stanley Johnson’s 15 points. He leads the Wildcats in scoring this season with 14.2 PPG and, as a team, Arizona is averaging 75.8 PPG while shooting a highly effective 49.1 percent from the field.

The Utes stayed right on Arizona’s tail in the Pac-12 title race with an 83-41 romp against Arizona State as 12-point home favorites this past Thursday. This followed a stunning 69-58 loss to Oregon last Sunday as 4 ½-point favorites on the road. They are now 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Utah is averaging 73 PPG and it is shooting an impressive 49.5 percent from the field. Senior guard Delon Wright has led the way with 14.2 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games following an ATS win.

-- The Utes are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games played on Saturday and they are 35-13-3 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 14 home games.

-- The road team in this conference clash has gone 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games. Arizona has won the last 10 meetings SU and it has a 6-4 edge ATS during this winning streak.

BYU Cougars vs. No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (ESPN2, 10 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Gonzaga -12

BYU brings a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS into this matchup following Thursday’s 82-69 victory against Portland as a 2 ½-point road favorite. The total has now stayed UNDER in the Cougars last four contests. Senior guard Tyler Haws has been a force this season with a team-high 22.3 points while shooting 47.6 percent from the field. The Cougars have an additional trio of players averaging 13 PPG as the top scoring team in the nation with 84.4 PPG. Defensively, they are well down the list after allowing an average of 72.4 PPG to their opponents.

The Bulldogs continue to roll to a West Coast regular season title with a perfect 17-0 SU record in conference play, but they are just 4-5 ATS in their last nine games. Gonzaga did cover a huge 17-point spread this past Thursday with a 59-39 victory at home against San Diego. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. The Bulldogs are another team that can light-up the scoreboard with 79 PPG and they are the top shooting team in the nation with a lights-out 52.7 field goal percentage. Junior forward Kyle Wiltjer has had the hottest hand with 17 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Cougars have covered in their last four games following a SU win and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven road games.

-- The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games and they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games played at home.

-- Head-to-head in this matchup, the home team has gone 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in the last five meetings at Gonzaga. The Bulldogs won the first meeting this season 87-80 while covering as five-point road favorites. The total went OVER the closing 149 ½-point line after staying UNDER in the previous seven meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Bracketology Update

February 27, 2015


We're getting into nitty-gritty time, with march just around the corner and Selection Sunday looming in two weeks. "Bubble" talk now dominates the college basketball discussion. Now, it's time to take "Bracketology" forecasts a bit more seriously, as most of the regular season is complete, and most of the potential at-large entries are no longer a mystery. Though the composition of those could still be altered somewhat by upset results in upcoming conference tourney action.

For our new update, we include not only each team's straight-up record, but also its "RPI" (Ratings Percentage index) and "SOS" (Strength of Schedule) numbers, calculations that begin to become more illuminating as we get deeper into conference action. All SU records, RPI and SOS are thru February 25.

Note that for all of our "Bracketology" updates, the term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in each region, and usual favorable geographic placement in the sub-regional round.

As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this season will begin on Thursday, March 19, with the Dayton "First Four" games played on March 17 and 18.

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)

At Charlotte...

1 Virginia (SUR 26-1, RPI-3, SOS-16) vs. 16 FGCU (21-8. 111-238)...A recent close call for Virginia against Wake Forest was reversed in a midweek blowout of the Demon Deacons, and the Cavs have yet to stumble without injured G Justin Anderson, likely out until the ACC Tourney due to a broken finger. UVa was also without another key guard, London Perrantes (face injury), in the Wednesday win at Winston-Salem. A loss before the end of the regular season, and failure to win the ACC Tourney, could still knock the Cavs off of the top line, but we wouldn't count on it. FGSU looks the team to beat in the upcoming Atlantic Sun Tourney, with a few remnants of Andy Enfield "Dunk City" Sweet 16 qualifier from two years ago still on the roster.

8 Oklahoma State (17-10, 28-6) vs. 9 Tulsa (20-7, 36-104)...Three weeks ago we had slotted Seton Hall and Texas into these positions in the East; now we have neither in our projected field of 68. Ok State is in better shape at the moment than the Longhorns in the Big 12 because of a better place in the current standings (sixth compared to eighth) and better RPI and SOS numbers, but the Cowboys are nonetheless advised to halt their current 3-game losing skid ASAP. We move Frank Haith's Tulsa to the safe side of the cut line after recent romps past Temple and Tulane, and staying abreast of Larry Brown's SMU at the top of the American table.

At Columbus...

4 Wichita State (26-3, 13-103) vs. 13 Harvard (19-5, 50-184)...We have Wichita and Northern Iowa basically interchangeable in protected seed slots, and suspect whichever teams wins the Missouri Valley Tourney (and it would be a stunner if it were not the Shockers or Panthers) probably gets a three seed, and the other team a four. The teams likely meet twice in the next ten days, so stay tuned. Harvard at the moment has the pole position in the Ivy League and an important win over closest pursuer Yale. A showdown with the Eli takes place in Cambridge next week, and if the situation remains unchanged until then, Yale is going to have to win that game and then beat Harvard again in an Ivy playoff to steal the Big Dance bid from Tommy Amaker, looking for his fourth straight NCAA trip.

5 Michigan State (19-8, 27-41) vs. 12 Boise State (21-7, 41-108)/NC State (17-11, 40-3)...If Michigan State making a late-season rally sounds familiar, it should, and Tom Izzo appears to be concocting another late-season run by the Spartans, who took a 4-game win streak into Thursday's game vs. Minnesota. The recent switch of G Travis Trice to a sixth-man role has provided a spark off the bench and has coincided with the recent surge. Obviously, the projections for the at-large play-in game at Dayton will vary wildly until Selection Sunday. A couple of stretch runners presently get our nod for one of those matchups, as hot Boise State had won 11 of its last 12 heading into Saturday's Mountain West showdown at San Diego State, while NC State's recent road wins at Louisville and North Carolina, plus an earlier upset over Duke and close call at Virginia, have the Wolfpack firmly on Selection Committee radar.

At Omaha...

2 Kansas (22-6, 2-1) vs. 15 High Point (21-7, 92-232)...Recent losses at West Virginia and Kansas State have probably removed any chance KU could slip onto the top line, and more than likely threaten to drop the Jayhawks to a 3 seed. But as long as KU hangs on to win the Big 12 regular-season title, and maintains its lofty RPI (2) and SOS (1) numbers, it should stay on the second line. Scott Cherry's High Point, featuring highlight-reel F John Brown, will likely be the top seed at next week's Big South Tourney near Myrtle Beach, but note that Cliff Ellis' dangerous tourney host Coastal Carolina has already beaten the Panthers twice this season. Speaking of Cherry, expect him to be targeted by a number of suitors (perhaps former employer George Mason, where Paul Hewitt is on the hot seat and where Cherry worked under Jim Larranaga during the Final Four season) at the conclusion of the campaign.

7 Georgetown (18-8, 23-5) vs. 10 Iowa (18-10, 53-29)...Having recovered from a brief recent dip (three losses in four) with wins in three straight headed into the weekend, the Hoyas look safely in the field and could move up a line or two by Selection Sunday with a deep run in the Big East Tourney. Iowa is not safe yet, but Wednesday's win over Illinois sets up the Hawkeyes as the likely seventh invitee from the Big Ten, which figures to get plenty of respect from the Selection Committee. Iowa should be safe as long as it doesn't lose more than one vs. Penn State, Indiana, and recently-pesky Northwestern before the Big Ten Tourney, and avoids an early exit in Chicago.

At Jacksonville...

3 Arkansas (23-5, 18-72) vs. 14 Iona (23-6, 50-184)...There will be plenty of clamoring for Arkansas to move up to the two line if it can beat top-ranked Kentucky (for a fourth straight time!) on Saturday. Right now, the Razorbacks are too far behind Kansas in the computer numbers to leapfrog the Jayhawks or the other projected two seeds, but that all changes with an upset over Coach Cal's Cats. Tim Cluess' Iona is no stranger to the Big Dance and has drawn clear in the Metro-Atlantic, and will be a solid favorite over top contenders Rider, Monmouth, and Quinnipiac when that tourney begins late next week in Albany.

6 VCU (21-7, 15-11) vs. 11 Stanford (17-9, 56-69)...VCU is not yet home-and-hosed in the A-10 regular-season race, especially after recent double-OT losses to La Salle and Richmond have caused a four-way logjam at the top of the league table. But solid computer numbers suggest Shaka Smart's team is the only league rep with little to worry about on Selection Sunday. Stanford is definitely in some bubble trouble after a recent dip in form, but last weekend's win over Cal temporarily stopped the bleeding. One potential problem for the Cardinal is that its best non-league win (at Texas) is not looking nearly as good as it did in December due to the Longhorns' recent fade in the Big 12. Still some work to do in Palo Alto.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)

At Charlotte...

1 Duke (19-3, 5-13) vs. 16 St. Francis NY (20-9, 165-325)/Albany (20-8, 123-296)...Duke risked slipping off of the top line if Virginia Tech could have pulled the massive upset at midweek, but the Blue Devils avoided that banana peel (barely) and live to fight another day as a projected top seed. Right now, it's wins over Virginia and Wisconsin that have Coach K's bunch projected ahead of Villanova, Arizona, and the Badgers for a spot on the top line. The America East race has been turned inside-out the past few weeks by the Great Danes from Albany, looking for a return trip to the Dance and having zoomed ahead of all else in the A-E with a 14-1 league mark and top seed (and home edge) in the upcoming conference tourney. Vermont and the home team of Strat-o-Matic on long Island, Stony Brook, look to be the top contenders. The Terriers of Brooklyn-based St. Francis (NY) have the pole position in the Northeast, also not insignificant since the conference winner has homecourt edge in a conference tourney played at campus sites. Looming close behind in the NE standings are Smithfield, RI-based Bryant, the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, Maurice Stokes' alma mater St. Francis (PA), Mount Saint Mary's, and Bob Beckel's Staten Island-based alma mater, Wagner.

8 Ohio State (19-8, 46-81) vs. 9 Dayton (21-6, 34-126)...For much of the season we have projected Ohio State a bit higher, and even came close to putting the Buckeyes in protected seed territory last month. But too many flat efforts (most of those on the road, like last Sunday's loss at Michigan) have dropped the Buckeyes into the 7-8 seed range. We are not sure how deep the Committee looks into the A-10, but beyond VCU we believe Dayton looks the best bet for an at-large. Remember, Archie Miller's Flyers advanced to the Elite Eight last spring with a similar-looking team.

At Portland...

4 Utah (21-5, 10-42) vs. 13 Georgia State (19-8, 81-187)...Expect Utah's Larry Krystkowiak to garner more than a few votes in national Coach of the Year balloting. The Utes have emerged as the second team in the Pac-12 behind Arizona (which visits Salt Lake City this weekend), though recent road losses at UCLA and Oregon have some observers wondering if Utah is a candidate for an early upset at the sub-regionals. The Sun Belt Tourney begins in two weeks at the U of New Orleans Lakefront Arena, and recent performances suggest Ron Hunter's Georgia State, playing some very nasty defense in recent weeks, can make amends after losing as the favorite to upstart ULL in the finals last March. Georgia Southern is currently abreast of the Panthers in the league race.

5 SMU (22-5, 20-59) vs. 12 Wofford (23-6, 51-159)...After being perhaps the last team to be left out of the 68-team field last March, Larry Brown's AAC-leading Mustangs are not going to have to sweat out Selection Sunday this season. A five seed might be bit aggressive, but the Mustangs can stick here if they win the conference tourney in Hartford (where local favorite UConn will be lurking). Meanwhile, Wofford has taken command in the SoCon as it looks for back-to-back Big Dance trips under vet HC Mike Young and star G Karl Cochran.

At Columbus...

2 Wisconsin (25-3, 6-19) vs. 15 NC Central (21-6, 106-336)...Wisconsin is sitting as the best-rated Big Ten side at the moment, but saw its hopes fora spot on the top line take a hit with the midweek loss at Maryland. Which probably didn't bother Bo Ryan's team as much as the emergency landing the team's plane had to make in Pittsburgh on its way back from BWI. The Badgers still have a shot at a top regional seed if they can win next month's Big Ten Tourney and events elsewhere break favorably, but for now we think a two seed is just about right. Looking for back-to-back Big Dance visits are HC LeVelle Moton's NC Central Eagles, who should be safely clear of the 16 vs. 16 play-in game as long as they maintain current form and don't get KO'd in next month's MEAC Tourney at the Norfolk Scope, once upon a time one of the regional homes for the ABA Virginia Squires during Dr. J's earliest days as a pro hoopster.

7 LSU (20-8, 54-91) vs. 10 Colorado State (24-5, 26-116)...Some observers believe the non-Kentucky teams from the SEC are going to fare much better in March than most realize and almost always mention Johnny Jones' LSU (along with Arkansas) as one of those potentially dangerous entries to watch. We are not as sure about the Selection Committee going too deep in the Mountain West, but Colorado State's solid computer numbers suggest the Rams are probably on the safe side of the cut line as long as Larry Eustachy's team avoids upcoming banana peels at payback-minded Nevada (which was humiliated by 56 at Fort Collins) and Utah State, and averts an early exit at the Mountain West Tourney in Las Vegas.

At Pittsburgh...

3 West Virginia (22-6, 22-49) vs. 14 William & Mary (18-10, 86-150)...After slipping down the seeding ladder in our last update, Bob Huggins' WVU has steadied after that recent wobble with big wins over Kansas and on the road at Oklahoma State and now projects as a protected seed out of the loaded Big 12. Which probably means a sub-regional assignment at nearby Pittsburgh, just what WVU fans would desire. Get ready for a national media blitz if William & Mary can win the upcoming Colonial Tourney in Baltimore, because the Tribe has never qualified for the Big Dance (though it came awfully close last March vs. Delaware).

6 Butler (20-8, 25-22) vs. 11 Miami-Fla. (18-10, 67-68)...Butler has been one of the pleasant surprises in the nation this season , and HC Chris Holtmann (who had the interim tag removed in January) should be getting some votes in the Coach of the Year balloting. Including Jim Larranaga's Miami is something of a reach, especially after the Canes blew a chance to put themselves a bit further from the cut line had they been able to hold on last Saturday at Louisville. Bad losses to Eastern Kentucky and Green bay in pre-league play still hurt, but the January 13 win over Duke helps. But Larranaga cannot afford to lose more than one upcoming game vs. North Carolina, Pitt, or VPI, or suffer an early exit in the ACC Tourney, to stay on the bubble.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Cleveland)

At Louisville...

1 Kentucky (28-0, 1-31) vs. 16 Texas Southern (15-12, 154-275)/Bucknell (17-13, 144-169)...Kentucky fans have been making their sub-regional reservations in Louisville since last summer, and that assignment to the KFC Yum! Center remains the surest thing on Selection Sunday. The Patriot champ has been involved in past play-in games, and this season's conference race has been turned inside-out with preseason favorite Lafayette taking on some water and CBS head honcho Les Moonves' alma mater Bucknell suddenly emerging along with unheralded Colgate as the leaders in the race. Also keep an eye on Army, with perhaps its best team since Coach K's years in the late '70s, and of course the memorable Bob Knight teams of the late '60s and into 1970. The SWAC has also been involved in many of these 16 vs. 16 play-in games, and Texas Southern is the most interesting rep this season after its pre-league wins over Michigan State and Kansas State. Alabama State and Southern U are other top contenders for the upcoming conference tourney at the Houston Rockets' swanky Toyota Center.

8 Providence (19-9, 21-7) vs. 9 Purdue (18-9, 59-70)...Solid computer numbers have Providence poised to get a single-digit seed on Selection Sunday. Road wins at Georgetown and Butler and vs. Notre Dame on a neutral floor at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut have helped the Friars, whose RPI also got a boost from a Nov. 30 loss at Kentucky. Stretch-running Purdue remains the surprise story in this year's Big Ten, not only saving the skin of under-fire HC Matt Painter but also climbing up the projected seedings for the past month due to an ongoing uptick (wins in 7 of last 8 in the rugged Big Ten).

At Omaha....

4 Oklahoma (19-8, 16-12) vs. 13 Central Michigan (21-5, 71-222)...There are a handful of interchangeable parts (OU, Iowa State, West Virginia, Baylor) in the upper half of the Big 12 table, and developments over the next couple of weeks will help properly slot all. At the moment, we give the Mountaineers and Lon Kruger's Sooners the spots as protected seeds, though OU is projected as low as the six line by other Bracketologists. As usual, the MAC Tourney in Cleveland figures to be a wide-open affair from what at one time was a multi-bid league (but hasn't been so this millennium). A measured vote for Keno Davis' CMU Chips, perhaps the most consistent of all MAC reps this season. Though several others (Bowling Green, Buffalo, Toledo, and last year's tourney champ Western Michigan among them) will all feel as if they have a shot at The Q, too.

5 Louisville (22-6, 19-37) vs. 12 Valparaiso (22-5, 69-262)...Something is presently not right with Louisville, which has eked out recent wins over Miami and Georgia Tech after recent losses to N.C. State and Syracuse and has dismissed troubled G Chris Jones. Combined, it's enough to move the Cards out of protected seed territory. A recent road loss at Detroit might be a warning sign, or a wake-up call, for Valpo, which is still in position to win the Horizon regular-season crown and play at home as long as it stays alive in the conference tourney. But Green Bay, Cleveland State, and perhaps Oakland and even Detroit will believe they have a chance in that upcoming event.

At Seattle...

2 Arizona (24-3, 7-39) vs. 15 South Dakota State (21-8, 103-251)...Arizona was fancying itself as a top regional seed in the West for the first month of the season, but road losses at UNLV and Oregon State are not befitting a top seed. Even with a close December home win over Gonzaga, we think the Zags are more likely to grab the West's top seed, likely moving the Wildcats out of the region. The Summit race remains a jumble, though Scott Nagy's SD State Jackrabbits look to have pole position for top seed in the upcoming conference tourney at hoops-mad Sioux Falls, with the defending champ North Dakota State Bisons, the IPFW Mastodons, the Oral Roberts Eagles, and maybe the South Dakota Coyotes all thinking they have a shot in Sioux Falls, too.

7 Oregon (21-8, 39-58) vs. 10 Georgia (18-9, 30-35)...We didn't even have Dana Altman's Oregon in our projected field until recent weeks. The Ducks were forgotten about after their 2-3 start in Pac-12 play, but have roared back and achieved the marquee win they needed last Sunday vs. Utah. Now, wins at Stanford and Oregon State to close the regular season and a good showing in the Pac-12 Tourney should have the Webfoots wearing their white unis (or perhaps yellow, or a lighter shade of green) as the designated home team in their first sub-regional game. Georgia had placed itself into a box with inexplicable losses to Auburn and South Carolina, but recent road wins at Alabama and Ole Miss have put the Bulldogs back on the safe side of the cut line. Avoiding a collapse in remaining regular-season games and a quick exit in the SEC Tourney at Nashville, and Mark Fox's team won't have to sweat Selection Sunday.

At Louisville...

3 Northern Iowa (27-2, 14-133) vs. 14 Stephen F, Austin (23-4, 66-259)...As mentioned in earlier discussion regarding fellow Missouri Valley contender Wichita State, we view "Virginia Lite" Northern Iowa as interchangeable at the moment with the Shockers, with the winner of the conference tourney likely on the three line and the loser probably getting a four seed on Selection Sunday. At the moment, we opt for UNI on the three line due to its earlier win over Wichita the (the teams meet again this weekend at Koch Arena). Nobody is going to be thrilled to draw Brad Underwood's giant-killers from Stephen F. Austin after the Lumberjacks dumped VCU in a sub-regional at San Diego last March. First, however, SFA must get past dangerous Sam Houston State and a few others in the upcoming Southland Tourney in the Houston suburb of Katy.

6 Baylor (21-7, 11-4) vs. 11 Cincinnati (19-9, 52-57)...As mentioned in our previous discussion involving Oklahoma, the Bears are one of several Big 12 teams we envision being slotted at three-thru-six seeds across the regional map. At the moment, we have the Bears at a six, though their computer numbers suggest something better. Cincinnati has not had an easy season, with HC Mick Cronin forced into a medical-related leave of absence. The Bearcats have also been operating without a double-digit scorer for much of the campaign and recently lost three games in a row. But a pair of wins over SMU, a December triumph over Mountain West leader San Diego State, and a top 25 non-conference schedule are helping to keep Cincy in the field of 68.

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles)

at Seattle...

1 Gonzaga (28-1, 8-74) vs. 16 New Mexico State (19-10, 113-177)...There still might be a scenario in which Gonzaga could drop from the top line without losing another game until Selection Sunday, but recent losses by Kansas and Wisconsin, and a couple of bad losses on Arizona's record, suggest that only Villanova appears capable of leapfrogging the Zags (as long as they keep winning thru the ACC Tourney). New Mexico State looks to be the only WAC rep that could miss one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games. The Aggies, who recently got skywalking G Daniel Mullings back to active duty, will be a heavy favorite for that conference tourney at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, and what would be a fourth straight Big Dance trip for HC Marvin Menzies.

8 North Carolina (19-9, 17-2) vs. 9 Indiana (19-10, 25-33)...There has to be some punishment for North Carolina continuing to lose games. So, despite the Tar Heels' lofty RPI (17) and SOS (2) numbers, we've slotted them in one of the 8 vs. 9 games, with a chance to play their way back up the ladder with a fast regular-season finish and good showing in the ACC Tourney. It only seems fair, right? Tom Crean's Indiana has been floating in the 7-9 range all season, but too many shallow efforts like Wednesday's loss at Northwestern have prevented the Hoosiers from ascending any higher on the seeding ladder.

At Portland...

4 Notre Dame (24-5, 29-106) vs. 13 Murray State (24-4, 74-269)...Notre Dame has been hovering in protected seed territory since January, but we have moved the Irish down a line to a four since our last update, with Tuesday's home loss vs. Syracuse costing Mike Brey's team. Steve Prohm's dangerous Murray State (which won the CIT last spring) has stayed unbeaten in Ohio Valley play and caused trouble in the Dance before. The Racers have emerged as the clear favorite for the upcoming OVC Tourney at the old Nashville Civic Auditorium (the SEC gets the higher-rent digs at the NHL Predators' Bridgestone Arena), where Rick Byrd's local entry Belmont, Heath Schroyer's UT-Martin, and Jeff Neubauer's defending conference tourney champ Eastern Kentucky have the best shot at an upset.

5 Iowa State (20-7, 12-8) vs. 12 St. John's (19-9, 37-28)/Texas A&M (19-8, 31-62)...Regarding Iowa State, ditto earlier discussions involving West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Baylor; for the moment we simply decide to slot the Cyclones on the five line, and wait to see what happens at the upcoming Big 12 Tourney in Kansas City. The second at-large play-in game at Dayton represents the absolute edge of the cut line, and much could change in the next two weeks. For the moment, we give Steve Lavin's St. John's (which enters the weekend having won 5 of its last 6) one more chance despite its inconsistencies, and also reward Texas A&M, whose two wins over LSU and absence of bad losses allow it to squeeze into the field (for the moment, at least) as the SEC's sixth rep.

At Pittsburgh...

2 Villanova (6-2, 4-27) vs. 15 Eastern Washington (20-7, 75-190)...As mentioned earlier, we now believe Nova has the best chance among all our two seeds to move up to the top line, though the Cats are going to have to keep winning to have a chance to leapfrog Gonzaga. Minor consideration, however, as Jay Wright's team likely heads to Pittsburgh regardless for the sub-regionals. Jim Hayford's Eastern Washington has made the most noise in the Big Sky this season due to its pre-league win at Indiana, and the Eagles appear poised to catch a break in the conference tourney by hosting the event even if finishing behind Sac State, whose tiny Hornet's Nest Gym has been deemed too small to host the postseason tourney, usually played at the home of the regular-season Sky winner.

7 Ole Miss (19-9, 43-45) vs. 10 Temple (19-9, 33-51)...Some SEC observers still believe that Ole Miss, and not Arkansas, might be the SEC's second-best team. A midweek home loss to capable Georgia is hardly a bad defeat after wins in eight of its previous nine games, though we don't see the Rebs ascending much higher than the six line on Selection Sunday. Temple has fallen back into some bubble trouble with recent losses at SMU and Tulsa, but a few of the Owls' other defeats came while HC Fran Dunphy was waiting for transfers to become eligible in the first month of the season, and the romp past Kansas should be worth something on Selection Sunday.

At Jacksonville....

3 Maryland (23-5, 9-21) vs. 14 UC Davis (21-4, 72-304)...We weren't sure about putting recently-wobbling Maryland in protected seed category as recently as a week ago, but Tuesday's rousing win over Wisconsin and earlier sweep of Michigan State should have the Terps poised to enter the Dance as no worse than the second-rated Big Ten team. And with developments elsewhere the past week (such as Notre Dame's home loss to Syracuse), Maryland gets bumped up to a 3. Kimberly Guilfoyle's alma mater UC Davis has never made the Big Dance, though it has won lower-division titles under current UCSB HC Bob Williams. Jim Les' Aggies have emerged as the favorite in the upcoming Big West Tourney at Anaheim thanks to an upperclassmen-dominated lineup and high-scoring G Corey Hawkins (Hersey's son; 20.8 ppg), back from recent injury.

6 San Diego State (22-6, 24-83) vs. 11 La Tech (21-7, 65-101)...Good news in the past week for Steve Fisher's SDSU, which has welcomed back versatile 6-7 swingman Dwayne Polee II to active duty after a heart scare. Though the Aztecs still lack the offensive bite of some of their recent versions, solid defense, makes SDSU a "tough out" in March as usual. Conference USA is a logjam at the top, but we don't think there will be more than the winner of the conference tourney (this year held in Birmingham) to make the field of 68. At the moment, a slight nod to Michael White's La Tech, a narrow loser in last year's conference tourney in El Paso. Keep an eye on ascending UAB, which gets home edge in the tourney next month, while Tim Floyd's UTEP could also be a team to watch in Birmingham.

Last four in: Boise State, NC State, St. John's, Texas A&M.

Last four out: Texas, Xavier, Pitt, UCLA.

Next four out: Illinois, Davidson, Rhode Island, BYU.