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FSU looks for big road upset
February 22, 2015
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (15-12) at VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (24-1)
John Paul Jones Arena - Charlottesville, VA Tip-off: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Virginia -15.5
No. 2 Virginia looks to win its sixth straight when the team faces off against Florida State in Charlottesville on Sunday.
On the surface, things seem to be smooth sailing for Coach Tony Bennett’s No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers. Since dropping their first game, 69-63 at home to conference rival Duke on Jan. 31, the Cavaliers have reeled off five straight wins, the first two over ranked foes (North Carolina, Louisville) and the last three over NC State, Wake Forest, and most recently, 61-49 over Pittsburgh on Monday evening.
Looking closer, though, Virginia isn’t the dominant team it was in non-conference play and early-conference season play. Virginia has one ATS win in its past seven games (1-6-1 ATS), even though it is just 6-1 SU in that span.
Florida State is seemingly finding its way now in conference play, going 6-3 SU in its past nine games after a 1-4 start. Given Virginia’s slow pace and incredible defense, it’s not surprising to find that the Cavaliers aren’t hitting the Over very often (4-8-1) in conference play. They’ve also only hit the Over once all season in-conference to a team averaging less than 69 points per-game – and that had the caveat of being a double-overtime win at Miami. (Florida State averages 68.2 PPG.)
More interestingly, contrary to Virginia’s recent inability to cover, the Seminoles are a sterling 8-1 ATS in their past nine games (4-0 ATS on the road; 5-0 ATS as an underdog), and have covered each of their last four contests. Historically, Florida State is 5-4 SU (3-6 ATS) versus Virginia since Tony Bennett became the head man in Charlottesville (March 2009). Virginia has won four of the last five meetings between these two schools, though, with the last win being in March, 2014 – a 64-51 win in the ACC tournament in Greensboro, NC. Virginia will be without the services of G Justin Anderson (13.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG), as they have been for the past three games, with a finger injury. FSU’s Aaron Thomas (14.8 PPG in 6 games) was declared ineligible in December and is out for the season.
Florida State is fresh off wins at Georgia Tech last Saturday, 57-53, and at home Wednesday versus Boston College, 69-60. On the road versus the Yellow Jackets, the defensive effort and shot blocking were reminiscent of Seminoles teams of past years under Coach Leonard Hamilton’s tenure.
Reserve F Jarquez Smith (6.6 PPG, 1.1 BPG) led the effort with 16 points and three of Florida State’s nine blocks on the day.
Against the Eagles, G Devon Bookert (11 PPG, 43% 3PT) took charge with 18 points on 6-for-7 from the field (4-for-5 3PT), as Florida State withstood 32 points from Boston College star Olivier Hanlan. While Florida State is great a defending the rim (5.2 BPG in-conference, 1st in ACC), that’s partially due to having three seven-footer’s they can rotate, who don’t do much else (C’s Boris Bojanovsky, Keil Turpin, and Michael Ojo – contributing 6.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.6 BPG combined).
Without projected leader, Thomas, the Seminoles offense has been put in the hands of redshirt freshman G Xavier Rathan-Mayes (13.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.5 APG). Rathan-Mayes has shown flashes of brilliance (35 points at Chapel Hill) and also reminders that he’s still very much a work-in-progress (5 points, 1 assist, 6 turnovers at Duke last Monday). Rathan-Mayes (3.6 TO/game, 1st ACC, 9th in NCAA) is a big reason why Florida State is also first in the ACC (14.2) in turnovers committed per game.
Rounding out the backcourt, where the Seminoles get most of their production, is G Montay Brandon (12.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG), a long, physical specimen of a swingman. Brandon is unfortunately wildly inconsistent on the offensive end, as he’s scored seven points or less in four of his past 10 games.
No. 2 Virginia remains at that lofty perch due to their unique style of play and vaunted “pack-line” defense, which relies on cutting off inside production with help defense (45.1% FG at-rim against, 1st in NCAA), and daring teams to make contested perimeter shots by forcing the primary ball handler away from his comfort zone.
The stalwart for Virginia’s number 1 scoring defense in the country (50.8 PPG) is G Malcolm Brogdon (13.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG) who’s length and size make him a menace on defense, whether guarding a dribbler on the perimeter, or finishing off a ball handler who’s just been woozy trying to dribble past the impenetrable defense of G London Perrantes (6.0 PPG, 4.5 APG) who’s widely considered one of the best on-ball defenders in the nation. It’s been a team effort filling in Justin Anderson’s lost production, but every major Cavalier has had a hand in succeeding at that task.
Perrantes is averaging just over nine points per game in his last three. Brogdon has taken it upon himself to create more offense, especially for a team without tons of firepower. (Brogdon has scored 15+ points in five of his past six contests.) Perhaps the x-factor of the Cavaliers, F Anthony Gill (11.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG), a transfer from South Carolina, provides the muscle inside to clean the glass, and has also proven up to the task of increasing his offense, averaging over 13 points in his last three games and four offensive rebounds per game in that stretch.
F Darion Atkins (7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) is the perfect forward in Tony Bennett’s system. He can guard any size forward, clean the glass, and will always be in the right place at the right time on offense. C Mike Tobey (7.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) was a decorated recruit who hasn’t exactly burst into stardom, but he provides UVA with a competent post-presence when they need a bucket down low. He’ll probably be needed for big minutes to matchup against Florida State’s centers.
February 22, 2015
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (15-12) at VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (24-1)
John Paul Jones Arena - Charlottesville, VA Tip-off: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Virginia -15.5
No. 2 Virginia looks to win its sixth straight when the team faces off against Florida State in Charlottesville on Sunday.
On the surface, things seem to be smooth sailing for Coach Tony Bennett’s No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers. Since dropping their first game, 69-63 at home to conference rival Duke on Jan. 31, the Cavaliers have reeled off five straight wins, the first two over ranked foes (North Carolina, Louisville) and the last three over NC State, Wake Forest, and most recently, 61-49 over Pittsburgh on Monday evening.
Looking closer, though, Virginia isn’t the dominant team it was in non-conference play and early-conference season play. Virginia has one ATS win in its past seven games (1-6-1 ATS), even though it is just 6-1 SU in that span.
Florida State is seemingly finding its way now in conference play, going 6-3 SU in its past nine games after a 1-4 start. Given Virginia’s slow pace and incredible defense, it’s not surprising to find that the Cavaliers aren’t hitting the Over very often (4-8-1) in conference play. They’ve also only hit the Over once all season in-conference to a team averaging less than 69 points per-game – and that had the caveat of being a double-overtime win at Miami. (Florida State averages 68.2 PPG.)
More interestingly, contrary to Virginia’s recent inability to cover, the Seminoles are a sterling 8-1 ATS in their past nine games (4-0 ATS on the road; 5-0 ATS as an underdog), and have covered each of their last four contests. Historically, Florida State is 5-4 SU (3-6 ATS) versus Virginia since Tony Bennett became the head man in Charlottesville (March 2009). Virginia has won four of the last five meetings between these two schools, though, with the last win being in March, 2014 – a 64-51 win in the ACC tournament in Greensboro, NC. Virginia will be without the services of G Justin Anderson (13.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG), as they have been for the past three games, with a finger injury. FSU’s Aaron Thomas (14.8 PPG in 6 games) was declared ineligible in December and is out for the season.
Florida State is fresh off wins at Georgia Tech last Saturday, 57-53, and at home Wednesday versus Boston College, 69-60. On the road versus the Yellow Jackets, the defensive effort and shot blocking were reminiscent of Seminoles teams of past years under Coach Leonard Hamilton’s tenure.
Reserve F Jarquez Smith (6.6 PPG, 1.1 BPG) led the effort with 16 points and three of Florida State’s nine blocks on the day.
Against the Eagles, G Devon Bookert (11 PPG, 43% 3PT) took charge with 18 points on 6-for-7 from the field (4-for-5 3PT), as Florida State withstood 32 points from Boston College star Olivier Hanlan. While Florida State is great a defending the rim (5.2 BPG in-conference, 1st in ACC), that’s partially due to having three seven-footer’s they can rotate, who don’t do much else (C’s Boris Bojanovsky, Keil Turpin, and Michael Ojo – contributing 6.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.6 BPG combined).
Without projected leader, Thomas, the Seminoles offense has been put in the hands of redshirt freshman G Xavier Rathan-Mayes (13.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.5 APG). Rathan-Mayes has shown flashes of brilliance (35 points at Chapel Hill) and also reminders that he’s still very much a work-in-progress (5 points, 1 assist, 6 turnovers at Duke last Monday). Rathan-Mayes (3.6 TO/game, 1st ACC, 9th in NCAA) is a big reason why Florida State is also first in the ACC (14.2) in turnovers committed per game.
Rounding out the backcourt, where the Seminoles get most of their production, is G Montay Brandon (12.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG), a long, physical specimen of a swingman. Brandon is unfortunately wildly inconsistent on the offensive end, as he’s scored seven points or less in four of his past 10 games.
No. 2 Virginia remains at that lofty perch due to their unique style of play and vaunted “pack-line” defense, which relies on cutting off inside production with help defense (45.1% FG at-rim against, 1st in NCAA), and daring teams to make contested perimeter shots by forcing the primary ball handler away from his comfort zone.
The stalwart for Virginia’s number 1 scoring defense in the country (50.8 PPG) is G Malcolm Brogdon (13.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG) who’s length and size make him a menace on defense, whether guarding a dribbler on the perimeter, or finishing off a ball handler who’s just been woozy trying to dribble past the impenetrable defense of G London Perrantes (6.0 PPG, 4.5 APG) who’s widely considered one of the best on-ball defenders in the nation. It’s been a team effort filling in Justin Anderson’s lost production, but every major Cavalier has had a hand in succeeding at that task.
Perrantes is averaging just over nine points per game in his last three. Brogdon has taken it upon himself to create more offense, especially for a team without tons of firepower. (Brogdon has scored 15+ points in five of his past six contests.) Perhaps the x-factor of the Cavaliers, F Anthony Gill (11.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG), a transfer from South Carolina, provides the muscle inside to clean the glass, and has also proven up to the task of increasing his offense, averaging over 13 points in his last three games and four offensive rebounds per game in that stretch.
F Darion Atkins (7 PPG, 6.1 RPG) is the perfect forward in Tony Bennett’s system. He can guard any size forward, clean the glass, and will always be in the right place at the right time on offense. C Mike Tobey (7.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) was a decorated recruit who hasn’t exactly burst into stardom, but he provides UVA with a competent post-presence when they need a bucket down low. He’ll probably be needed for big minutes to matchup against Florida State’s centers.
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