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Thursday's Top Action
February 11, 2015
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (13-11) at ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (16-8)
State Farm Center – Champaign, IL
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Illinois -7
In a rematch of the inaugural Big Ten game this season, where Michigan prevailed in overtime, Illinois looks for revenge on its home floor.
On December 30th 2014, Indiana went into Ann Arbor to play Michigan. Leading the Fighting Illini was senior All-Big Ten G Rayvonte Rice (17.2 PPG). Michigan countered with preseason All-Big Ten G Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG). Just one game later, Illinois learned it would be without Rice for the rest of the season.
A month after that, Michigan learned it would be without LeVert for the rest of the season as well. It’s a good thing, then, that the stars of the aforementioned Michigan win (and cover) over Illinois were guys who are still healthy, as G Malcolm Hill (14.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) had 17 points and nine boards for the Illini, while reserve G Aubrey Dawkins (4.8 PPG) scored a career-high 20 points (6-for-7 3PT) to aid in the Wolverines’ cause.
The Wolverines and Illini are going in opposite directions, however. While Michigan seemed to band together with close losses at Wisconsin and at Michigan State while playing without LeVert and sophomore G Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG), they’ve still only won once in their last five and postseason play is starting to seem like a lofty goal. Conversely, the Illini are winners of three straight conference games, fresh off an upset of Michigan State in Lansing on Saturday.
Illinois is 11-1 at home (6-4 ATS) and 4-1 at home in conference (3-2 ATS), while Michigan is 2-4 SU on the road in conference but is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog since Jan. 27. Michigan has dominated this matchup as of late: The Fighting Illini’s last win over Michigan was a 54-52 home win in Feb. 2011, as they’ve dropped the last eight contests between the two squads. Illinois has failed to cover the last four times these two teams have met in Champaign. Michigan has been the favorite the last five times these teams have played.
Not only is Illinois’ Rice injured for the season, but he and fellow G Aaron Cosby (7.8 PPG) are also suspended indefinitely (Cosby was also injured at the time for an issue with his eye). In addition to LeVert, Walton is also doubtful to play for the Wolverines.
Most of the good feeling surrounding the effort without LeVert and Walton has subsided for Michigan, only replaced by slim postseason hope. The Wolverines are still a tough out, especially away from home (just ask Wisconsin), as the only blowout they’ve suffered in someone else’s gym was to Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog. Unfortunately, the recent personnel losses have rendered Michigan completely inept on the glass over their last three games (22.3 RPG in that span, 349th NCAA). As you can guess, this means they’ve been crushed in rebounding margin (-14, -16, -11) in those games.
This is where they miss Walton and LeVert most, as both were amongst the nation’s better rebounders at the guard position. G Zak Irvin (13.6 PPG, 2.4 threes/game) finally had the breakout game that the Wolverines will need on a consistent basis, as he poured in 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting in Michigan’s 73-70 loss at Indiana on Sunday.
F Ricky Doyle (6.5 PPG), who’s seen the bulk of the playing time as Michigan’s lone big man recently, scored 15 points and added six boards (the only Wolverine with more than three rebounds). Doyle was instrumental in the December win over Illinois scoring 13 points and hitting the free throw that would send that game to overtime.
G Spike Albrecht (5.9 PPG, 3.6 APG) was his consistent self in a starting role with 12 points and seven assists against Indiana; he’s just not the difference maker that Walton is. Dawkins will have to rediscover the touch that made him so lethal against Illinois the first time, as he could only muster seven points in 34 minutes versus Indiana’s Big Ten-worst defense.
Illinois is a mediocre rebounding team (30.8 RPG in-conference, 10th Big Ten), but they won’t need to do much (as shown earlier) to hold a significant advantage over Michigan on the glass. Hill should be the main weapon, again, as he was versus Michigan in December. Hill’s scoring average without Rice is almost three full points per game higher (17.7 PPG - last nine games), and he’s being more assertive as an offensive leader, having attempted double-digit shots in eight of those nine games. Hill’s 6-foot-6, 230lb frame and inside-out game is a physical mismatch for any individual defender on Michigan’s side of the ball.
If Michigan adjusts its defense to keep Hill from stopping them, then G Kendrick Nunn (11.5 PPG; 16.1 PPG with Rice out) will surely make them pay. Nunn’s production has been the biggest beneficiary from Rice’s absence, and arguably the biggest boon to the Illini’s surging ways. Nunn scored only three points in the first meeting with Michigan; you can bet that will change on Thursday. It hasn’t just been the Nunn and Hill show, though, as Illinois has gotten increased production across the board.
G Jaylon Tate’s emergence (3.9 PPG, 3.5APG; 3.3:1 A:TO in Rice’s absence) as a true distributor has freed up Nunn to fire up shots at will. F Leron Black (5.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG) has shown flashes of promise, averaging 6.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG over his past six. Even embattled senior C Nnanna Egwu (7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) has pitched in big performances like his 12-point, seven-rebound, three-block gem at Michigan State on Saturday.
Coach John Croce’s team won’t be mistaken for an offensive juggernaut (63.7 PPG in-conference – down almost 9 PPG from season-long numbers), however Illinois seems to be finding an identity on defense. The Fighting Illini has held their opponents under 0.95 points-per-possession in all three victories during their current win streak (the first time they’ve done so during a three-game stretch this season).
SAINT MARY’S GAELS (18-5) at BYU COUGARS (18-8)
Marriot Center – Provo, UT
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: BYU -6
BYU looks to get revenge for a Jan. 17 loss to St. Mary’s when the Cougars host the Gaels on Thursday.
St. Mary’s is coming off of a 73-58 win-and-cover at home over Pacific on Saturday. The Gaels have now won-and-covered in three of their past four games and five of their past seven as well. Defensively the team is locked in, allowing just 60.8 PPG over the past four contests. BYU, meanwhile, is coming off of a 87-68 victory as eight-point road favorites against Loyola-Marymount. The Cougars are hot offensively, scoring 74+ points in each of their past eight games.
These two teams met on Jan. 17, when St. Mary’s beat BYU 82-77 at McKeon Pavilion. Prior to that win-and-cover for the Gaels, BYU had won-and-covered in its previous two meetings with St. Mary’s. The Gaels, however, are 6-4 SU and ATS in this head-to-head series dating back to Jan. 2, 2004. BYU won-and-covered when hosting St. Mary’s last season, but the Gaels won-and-covered in their previous two trips to Provo. While the Cougars are 10-3 SU at home this season, they are just 2-10 ATS when playing at the Marriot Center. BYU is also just 5-8 ATS when playing against West Coast Conference opponents. The Gaels, on the other hand, are 9-2-1 ATS when playing against the WCC and 5-1-1 ATS when playing on the road this season.
G Jordan Chatman (Ankle) is out for the season for BYU and Fs Nate Austin (Hamstring) and Jamal Aytes (Ankle) are out indefinitely for the Cougars. G Aaron Bright (Ankle) is listed as questionable for St. Mary’s in this one and G Anson Winder (Groin) is questionable for BYU.
St. Mary’s has a very balanced team, averaging 70.2 PPG (107th in NCAA) on 46.6% shooting (50th in NCAA) and allowing just 63.1 PPG (95th in NCAA). This team gets it done on both ends of the floor and dominated the Cougars on the glass in their last meeting, outrebounding BYU 41-28 in that game.
F Brad Waldow (20.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG) could not be stopped in that contest, going for 24 points (10-for-15 FG) with 14 rebounds and two blocks in 37 minutes of action. Waldow is averaging 21.5 PPG in his past two games and has been incredibly efficient in doing so (17-for-29 FG). The Gaels will need to feed him the ball early and often in this one, as he rarely takes bad shots and knows when to get rid of the ball when opponents come with a double team.
G Kerry Carter (12.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is one of the best shooters this team has (42% 3PT), but he struggled mightily against BYU last time around. Carter had just 10 points in that game and was really off all night (3-for-12 FG, 1-for-8 3PT). He will need to knock down his open looks, as his shooting was badly missed the last time these teams faced one another.
Luckily for the Gaels, F Garrett Jackson (7.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) had one of his best games of the season in that victory. Jackson is an extremely accurate shooter (48% 3PT), but he doesn’t shoot the ball often (5.7 FGA). St. Mary’s will need him to be aggressive in this game as he was already able to find success against BYU once this year with 20 points (7-for-10 FG, 3-for-3 3PT) and nine rebounds in 33 minutes.
G Aaron Bright (10.6 PPG, 3.8 APG) would be a big loss if he were unable to play for the Gaels in this one. He is their best passer and is another guy who can create shots for himself when called upon.
BYU runs the most effective offense in college basketball, putting up 84.9 PPG (1st in NCAA) on 46.7% shooting (46th in NCAA). This team moves the ball well, as evidenced by their 17.5 APG (3rd in NCAA) and is also extremely active on the glass (38.7 RPG, 25th in NCAA).
G Tyler Haws (22.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.4 APG) is the top scorer for this BYU team. Haws has scored 20+ points in 10 straight games for the Cougars and was on fire when the team beat St. Mary’s on Jan. 17, finishing the game with 28 points in 36 minutes. Haws is an excellent shooter from the outside (37% 3PT) and can also get to the free throw line at will (7.2 FTA, 88% FT). He’ll need to have another impressive offensive performance to get his team a victory over St. Mary’s this time around.
While Haws is BYU’s best scorer, G Kyle Collinsworth (13.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5.8 APG, 2.0 SPG) is the Cougars’ best playmaker. The guard can do it all for this team and is coming off of a game in which he recorded a triple-double (23 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) against Loyala-Marymount. When these teams last met, Collinsworth had 10 points, six rebounds and three assists in 28 minutes. He was in foul trouble early and he must stay disciplined on the defensive end to ensure his team that he’ll play big minutes in this one.
G Anson Winder (14.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG) strained his groin in a victory over Loyola-Marymount on Saturday. He played just six minutes in that game due to the injury and his health for this game will be crucial to BYU. Winder is a lethal outside shooter (37% 3PT) and can score points in a hurry. His offense would be missed if he were to be unable to go in this one. C Corbin Kaufusi (2.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG) has been thrust into action lately for this depleted Cougars team. Kaufusi is not relied on to do much offensively, but he will need to be aggressive on the glass and protect the rim in this game.
February 11, 2015
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (13-11) at ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI (16-8)
State Farm Center – Champaign, IL
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Illinois -7
In a rematch of the inaugural Big Ten game this season, where Michigan prevailed in overtime, Illinois looks for revenge on its home floor.
On December 30th 2014, Indiana went into Ann Arbor to play Michigan. Leading the Fighting Illini was senior All-Big Ten G Rayvonte Rice (17.2 PPG). Michigan countered with preseason All-Big Ten G Caris LeVert (14.9 PPG). Just one game later, Illinois learned it would be without Rice for the rest of the season.
A month after that, Michigan learned it would be without LeVert for the rest of the season as well. It’s a good thing, then, that the stars of the aforementioned Michigan win (and cover) over Illinois were guys who are still healthy, as G Malcolm Hill (14.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG) had 17 points and nine boards for the Illini, while reserve G Aubrey Dawkins (4.8 PPG) scored a career-high 20 points (6-for-7 3PT) to aid in the Wolverines’ cause.
The Wolverines and Illini are going in opposite directions, however. While Michigan seemed to band together with close losses at Wisconsin and at Michigan State while playing without LeVert and sophomore G Derrick Walton Jr. (10.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG), they’ve still only won once in their last five and postseason play is starting to seem like a lofty goal. Conversely, the Illini are winners of three straight conference games, fresh off an upset of Michigan State in Lansing on Saturday.
Illinois is 11-1 at home (6-4 ATS) and 4-1 at home in conference (3-2 ATS), while Michigan is 2-4 SU on the road in conference but is 3-0 ATS as a road underdog since Jan. 27. Michigan has dominated this matchup as of late: The Fighting Illini’s last win over Michigan was a 54-52 home win in Feb. 2011, as they’ve dropped the last eight contests between the two squads. Illinois has failed to cover the last four times these two teams have met in Champaign. Michigan has been the favorite the last five times these teams have played.
Not only is Illinois’ Rice injured for the season, but he and fellow G Aaron Cosby (7.8 PPG) are also suspended indefinitely (Cosby was also injured at the time for an issue with his eye). In addition to LeVert, Walton is also doubtful to play for the Wolverines.
Most of the good feeling surrounding the effort without LeVert and Walton has subsided for Michigan, only replaced by slim postseason hope. The Wolverines are still a tough out, especially away from home (just ask Wisconsin), as the only blowout they’ve suffered in someone else’s gym was to Ohio State as a 9.5-point underdog. Unfortunately, the recent personnel losses have rendered Michigan completely inept on the glass over their last three games (22.3 RPG in that span, 349th NCAA). As you can guess, this means they’ve been crushed in rebounding margin (-14, -16, -11) in those games.
This is where they miss Walton and LeVert most, as both were amongst the nation’s better rebounders at the guard position. G Zak Irvin (13.6 PPG, 2.4 threes/game) finally had the breakout game that the Wolverines will need on a consistent basis, as he poured in 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting in Michigan’s 73-70 loss at Indiana on Sunday.
F Ricky Doyle (6.5 PPG), who’s seen the bulk of the playing time as Michigan’s lone big man recently, scored 15 points and added six boards (the only Wolverine with more than three rebounds). Doyle was instrumental in the December win over Illinois scoring 13 points and hitting the free throw that would send that game to overtime.
G Spike Albrecht (5.9 PPG, 3.6 APG) was his consistent self in a starting role with 12 points and seven assists against Indiana; he’s just not the difference maker that Walton is. Dawkins will have to rediscover the touch that made him so lethal against Illinois the first time, as he could only muster seven points in 34 minutes versus Indiana’s Big Ten-worst defense.
Illinois is a mediocre rebounding team (30.8 RPG in-conference, 10th Big Ten), but they won’t need to do much (as shown earlier) to hold a significant advantage over Michigan on the glass. Hill should be the main weapon, again, as he was versus Michigan in December. Hill’s scoring average without Rice is almost three full points per game higher (17.7 PPG - last nine games), and he’s being more assertive as an offensive leader, having attempted double-digit shots in eight of those nine games. Hill’s 6-foot-6, 230lb frame and inside-out game is a physical mismatch for any individual defender on Michigan’s side of the ball.
If Michigan adjusts its defense to keep Hill from stopping them, then G Kendrick Nunn (11.5 PPG; 16.1 PPG with Rice out) will surely make them pay. Nunn’s production has been the biggest beneficiary from Rice’s absence, and arguably the biggest boon to the Illini’s surging ways. Nunn scored only three points in the first meeting with Michigan; you can bet that will change on Thursday. It hasn’t just been the Nunn and Hill show, though, as Illinois has gotten increased production across the board.
G Jaylon Tate’s emergence (3.9 PPG, 3.5APG; 3.3:1 A:TO in Rice’s absence) as a true distributor has freed up Nunn to fire up shots at will. F Leron Black (5.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG) has shown flashes of promise, averaging 6.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG over his past six. Even embattled senior C Nnanna Egwu (7 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) has pitched in big performances like his 12-point, seven-rebound, three-block gem at Michigan State on Saturday.
Coach John Croce’s team won’t be mistaken for an offensive juggernaut (63.7 PPG in-conference – down almost 9 PPG from season-long numbers), however Illinois seems to be finding an identity on defense. The Fighting Illini has held their opponents under 0.95 points-per-possession in all three victories during their current win streak (the first time they’ve done so during a three-game stretch this season).
SAINT MARY’S GAELS (18-5) at BYU COUGARS (18-8)
Marriot Center – Provo, UT
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: BYU -6
BYU looks to get revenge for a Jan. 17 loss to St. Mary’s when the Cougars host the Gaels on Thursday.
St. Mary’s is coming off of a 73-58 win-and-cover at home over Pacific on Saturday. The Gaels have now won-and-covered in three of their past four games and five of their past seven as well. Defensively the team is locked in, allowing just 60.8 PPG over the past four contests. BYU, meanwhile, is coming off of a 87-68 victory as eight-point road favorites against Loyola-Marymount. The Cougars are hot offensively, scoring 74+ points in each of their past eight games.
These two teams met on Jan. 17, when St. Mary’s beat BYU 82-77 at McKeon Pavilion. Prior to that win-and-cover for the Gaels, BYU had won-and-covered in its previous two meetings with St. Mary’s. The Gaels, however, are 6-4 SU and ATS in this head-to-head series dating back to Jan. 2, 2004. BYU won-and-covered when hosting St. Mary’s last season, but the Gaels won-and-covered in their previous two trips to Provo. While the Cougars are 10-3 SU at home this season, they are just 2-10 ATS when playing at the Marriot Center. BYU is also just 5-8 ATS when playing against West Coast Conference opponents. The Gaels, on the other hand, are 9-2-1 ATS when playing against the WCC and 5-1-1 ATS when playing on the road this season.
G Jordan Chatman (Ankle) is out for the season for BYU and Fs Nate Austin (Hamstring) and Jamal Aytes (Ankle) are out indefinitely for the Cougars. G Aaron Bright (Ankle) is listed as questionable for St. Mary’s in this one and G Anson Winder (Groin) is questionable for BYU.
St. Mary’s has a very balanced team, averaging 70.2 PPG (107th in NCAA) on 46.6% shooting (50th in NCAA) and allowing just 63.1 PPG (95th in NCAA). This team gets it done on both ends of the floor and dominated the Cougars on the glass in their last meeting, outrebounding BYU 41-28 in that game.
F Brad Waldow (20.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG) could not be stopped in that contest, going for 24 points (10-for-15 FG) with 14 rebounds and two blocks in 37 minutes of action. Waldow is averaging 21.5 PPG in his past two games and has been incredibly efficient in doing so (17-for-29 FG). The Gaels will need to feed him the ball early and often in this one, as he rarely takes bad shots and knows when to get rid of the ball when opponents come with a double team.
G Kerry Carter (12.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is one of the best shooters this team has (42% 3PT), but he struggled mightily against BYU last time around. Carter had just 10 points in that game and was really off all night (3-for-12 FG, 1-for-8 3PT). He will need to knock down his open looks, as his shooting was badly missed the last time these teams faced one another.
Luckily for the Gaels, F Garrett Jackson (7.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) had one of his best games of the season in that victory. Jackson is an extremely accurate shooter (48% 3PT), but he doesn’t shoot the ball often (5.7 FGA). St. Mary’s will need him to be aggressive in this game as he was already able to find success against BYU once this year with 20 points (7-for-10 FG, 3-for-3 3PT) and nine rebounds in 33 minutes.
G Aaron Bright (10.6 PPG, 3.8 APG) would be a big loss if he were unable to play for the Gaels in this one. He is their best passer and is another guy who can create shots for himself when called upon.
BYU runs the most effective offense in college basketball, putting up 84.9 PPG (1st in NCAA) on 46.7% shooting (46th in NCAA). This team moves the ball well, as evidenced by their 17.5 APG (3rd in NCAA) and is also extremely active on the glass (38.7 RPG, 25th in NCAA).
G Tyler Haws (22.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.4 APG) is the top scorer for this BYU team. Haws has scored 20+ points in 10 straight games for the Cougars and was on fire when the team beat St. Mary’s on Jan. 17, finishing the game with 28 points in 36 minutes. Haws is an excellent shooter from the outside (37% 3PT) and can also get to the free throw line at will (7.2 FTA, 88% FT). He’ll need to have another impressive offensive performance to get his team a victory over St. Mary’s this time around.
While Haws is BYU’s best scorer, G Kyle Collinsworth (13.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5.8 APG, 2.0 SPG) is the Cougars’ best playmaker. The guard can do it all for this team and is coming off of a game in which he recorded a triple-double (23 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) against Loyala-Marymount. When these teams last met, Collinsworth had 10 points, six rebounds and three assists in 28 minutes. He was in foul trouble early and he must stay disciplined on the defensive end to ensure his team that he’ll play big minutes in this one.
G Anson Winder (14.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG) strained his groin in a victory over Loyola-Marymount on Saturday. He played just six minutes in that game due to the injury and his health for this game will be crucial to BYU. Winder is a lethal outside shooter (37% 3PT) and can score points in a hurry. His offense would be missed if he were to be unable to go in this one. C Corbin Kaufusi (2.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG) has been thrust into action lately for this depleted Cougars team. Kaufusi is not relied on to do much offensively, but he will need to be aggressive on the glass and protect the rim in this game.
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