The Bum's February's College Hoops Trends,Stats,News All You Need To Know B4 Wagering

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Big East Analysis

February 5, 2015

The Big East race has turned into a good one nearly halfway through conference play. Four teams are within one game of each other for first place (Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, and Providence), while three other squads own .500 or better records inside the league (DePaul, Seton Hall, and Xavier). Looking ahead to the final half of the regular season prior to the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden in New York, many of these teams have established play-on and play-against situations.

Villanova (20-2, 7-2)

The Wildcats battle Georgetown in a key revenge spot on Saturday in Philadelphia, looking to avenge a 78-58 blowout loss last month. Jay Wright’s team has rebounded with three consecutive blowouts, knocking off Creighton, DePaul, and Marquette by double-digits each. Granted, those three squads are in the bottom half of the conference, but all seven Big East wins are by at least 12 points.

The upcoming three-game stretch for the Wildcats will be a big test to see if they can hold onto the top spot in the league. Following a home matchup with Georgetown (7-4), Villanova heads to Providence (7-3) next Wednesday, then a trip to Butler (7-3) next Saturday. The Wildcats have covered four of five home games in the conference, with the lone ATS loss coming as 21 ½-point favorites against DePaul in a 17-point victory.

Butler (17-6, 7-3)

The transition from the Atlantic 10 to the Big East wasn’t easy for the Bulldogs last season, losing 14 of 18 league contests. However, Butler has proven it can hang in a major conference by winning seven of its first 10 Big East games, while also beating North Carolina and Georgetown in the Bahamas during the Thanksgiving break. Butler began league play with a 12-point loss at Villanova, but is 7-2 SU/ATS in the past nine games with the only defeats coming by four to Providence and two at Georgetown.

Given Villanova’s upcoming schedule, it wouldn’t be crazy to think that Butler could move into the top spot in the conference. The next six games for the Bulldogs are against DePaul, Villanova, at Creighton, at Xavier, Marquette, and at DePaul. Butler has won 11 of 12 games at Hinkle Fieldhouse, while squeezing out three road wins by four points apiece at St. John’s, Seton Hall, and Marquette.

Providence (17-6, 7-3)

The Friars shocked the Big East by locking up the automatic berth for the NCAA Tournament by capturing the conference tournament title last March over Creighton. Providence has carried over that momentum to this season, as Ed Cooley’s squad overcame a three-game skid in non-conference play (which included a home loss to Brown) to win 11 of its past 14 contests. The Friars have lost three conference games, but two of those have come to St. John’s, who owns a 3-6 record in the league.

Providence faces a tough test on Saturday with a trip to Xavier, as the Friars held off the Musketeers in their previous matchup in overtime, 69-66 to barely cover as 2-point favorites on January 22. The Friars return to the Dunkin Donuts Center for a pair of games next week against Villanova and Seton Hall, while owning a 6-2 ATS record the past eight contests with the only two non-covers coming to St. John’s.

Georgetown (15-7, 7-4)

The Hoyas fell apart late in Wednesday’s 74-71 home defeat to Providence as 6 ½-point favorites, the second setback to the Friars this season. Georgetown started conference play winning its first four home games, but has lost each of its past two games at the Verizon Center. Playing in the role of a favorite has not been profitable, posting a 2-5 ATS record in the last seven games when laying points, but the Hoyas have won five times in this stretch.

Georgetown still has two meetings apiece with Seton Hall and St. John’s, while making trips to Villanova (Saturday) and Butler (March 3). For as much as the Hoyas have slipped up at home recently, Georgetown has picked things up away from the Nation’s Capital with three straight road victories following an 0-2 start on the highway inside the league.

What else to watch for:

DePaul was expected to be near the bottom of the conference once again, but the Blue Demons surprised the ATS audience by covering each of their first seven Big East games. Oliver Purnell’s club pulled off upsets of Marquette, Seton Hall, and Xavier, while surprising Creighton as 10-point ‘dogs. However, the Blue Demons have slowed up with a 1-3 ATS mark of late, even though DePaul is fresh off a home ‘dog victory over an inconsistent Seton Hall club.

If Seton Hall is listed as a favorite in Big East play, it’s probably a good idea to fade them, as the Pirates have posted an 0-3 SU/ATS record when laying points inside the league. Besides a 13-point loss at DePaul on Tuesday, the Hall has also lost at home to Butler and DePaul in the favorite role. However, Seton Hall owns a solid 5-2 SU/ATS mark as an underdog against conference foes, as the Pirates will be likely listed as a ‘dog next week against Georgetown at home, Villanova on the road, and Providence on the highway.

St. John’s has been the worst ATS team in the league, covering twice in nine tries. The Red Storm swept Providence and covered each time, meaning Steve Lavin’s club has failed to cover a Big East game against anybody that doesn’t play in Rhode Island. St. John’s will be favored in its next two games against Creighton and DePaul at home, as the Red Storm has lost to both of those teams already as a road favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Six of the top minor league prospects of the Arizona Diamondbacks.......

1) Archie Bradley, P-- Was 1-4, 5.18 in five AAA starts at age 22

3) Aaron Blair, P-- Highest player ever drafted out of Marshall U.

4) Yasmany Tomas 3B/OF-- Cuban defector got $68.5M to sign.

8) Pete O'Brien C/1B-- Acquired from Bronx in Martin Prado deal.

11) Robbie Ray, P-- Went 1-4, 8.16 in six starts with Detroit LY.

18) Andrew Chafin, P-- Went 0-1, 3.86 in three starts for Arizona LY.

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Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here.......

13) Eldrick Woods was +2 on 3rd green (12th hole of his day) when his caddy picked up his ball marker and they went home; he has a bad back and withdrew, which forced Golf Channel announcers to actually watch other golfers play. I asked this last week, but how long does this go on before it stops being a story?

12) Woods now has three missed cuts and three WDs in his last eight tournaments, as reports circulate that he still owes his ex-wife $50M from their divorce settlement.

11) There is a golfer on the ladies tour named Brooke Pancake; tremendous name. If she did a radio talk show with former Giants' CB Elvis Patterson, they could call it "Pancake and Toast".

10) Starter at the Farmers' tournament this weekend in LaJolla is the dad of pro golfer Pat Perez, who has only one pro win, the '09 Bob Hope Classic. Perez played golf at Arizona State, where the coach (since 2011) is Phil Mickelson's brother Tim.

9) For the second time in the last four offseasons, Victor Martinez has screwed up his knee during a workout; why doesn't the guy just lay on his couch until he goes to spring training? One thing a fantasy baseball owner doesn't want to see in February is one his players' name in the paper. Almost always bad news.

This time at least, the injury isn't as bad as three years ago- he should be good to go sometime in April. He missed all of 2012 after two operations on the same knee.

8) UAB 80, Louisiana Tech 60-- Will be quite a story if Blazers get into NCAAs, in same academic year when school dropped its football program, which has caused lot of ill will within the UAB community. No matter what, Jarrod Haase has done a great job of reviving the program Gene Bartow started in 1978.

7) Of the 351 Division I basketball coaches, only two have a PhD degree; LaSalle's John Giannini and Brett Reed of Lehigh.

6) Cavaliers 105, Clippers 94-- Cleveland was up 32 after three quarters, sat their starters for rest of game; they've now won 12 games in a row and no one talks about them anymore. Maybe Doc Rivers shouldn't have given his guys Tuesday night off in Manhattan-- letting pro athletes loose in NYC is an invitation for too much fun.

5) Kansas State suspended two players, including leading scorer Marcus Foster; Bruce Weber has been doing a nice job with these Wildcats, but the margin of error for so many D-I teams is very thin, losing a guy like Foster could be a back-breaker.

4) ESPN named Rece Davis the new host of college football GameDay, a great move seeing as Davis is their best college football voice. Chris Fowler will still be on the Saturday night games; he was better on the pregame show than he is calling games.

3) Saw part of the football schedule next fall for Bishop Gorman HS in Las Vegas; its first six opponents come from five different states, with two from California. This is a high school program; their first game in August is going to be on ESPN.

2) Jim Harbaugh got himself a QB in Houston transfer John O'Korn, who was lot better as a freshman than a sophomore, when he lost his starting job halfway thru this past season. O'Korn will sit this year, play for Michigan in 2016-17.

1) Kam Chancellor played the Super Bowl with a torn MCL; Earl Thomas has a torn labrum, Richard Sherman's elbow might need Tommy John surgery. Football is a tough sport to play and thats a vast understatement.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Dayton at George Washington
The Flyers head to George Washington tonight to face a Colonials team that is 22-14 ATS in its last 36 home games. George Washington is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Colonials favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: George Washington (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 6

Game 825-826: Dayton at George Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 61.109; George Washington 66.517
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: George Washington by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (-2 1/2)

Game 827-828: Dartmouth at Yale (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 50.159; Yale 59.876
Dunkel Line: Yale by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-7 1/2)

Game 829-830: Harvard at Brown (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 60.804; Brown 50.307
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 9
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-9)

Game 831-832: Pennsylvania at Cornell (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 48.973; Cornell 57.805
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 9
Vegas Line: Cornell by 6
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-6)

Game 833-834: Princeton at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 54.134; Columbia 55.367
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 1
Vegas Line: Columbia by 4
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+4)

Game 835-836: Siena at Iona (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 49.842; Iona 60.170
Dunkel Line: Iona by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 13
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+13)

Game 837-838: Canisius at Manhattan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 56.938; Manhattan 55.948
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 1
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 4
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+4)

Game 839-840: Niagara at Marist (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 45.170; Marist 45.984
Dunkel Line: Marist by 1
Vegas Line: Marist by 4
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+4)

Game 851-852: High Point at Coastal Carolina (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: High Point 52.002; Coastal Carolina 50.712
Dunkel Line: High Point by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Coastal Carolina by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: High Point (+3 1/2)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, February 6

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DAYTON (17 - 4) at GEORGE WASHINGTON (16 - 6) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
DAYTON is 2-0 against the spread versus GEORGE WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
GEORGE WASHINGTON is 1-1 straight up against DAYTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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DARTMOUTH (8 - 10) at YALE (15 - 6) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DARTMOUTH is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
DARTMOUTH is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
DARTMOUTH is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
YALE is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
YALE is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
YALE is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
DARTMOUTH is 3-1 against the spread versus YALE over the last 3 seasons
YALE is 2-2 straight up against DARTMOUTH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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HARVARD (13 - 5) at BROWN (9 - 12) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 95-125 ATS (-42.5 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
BROWN is 23-39 ATS (-19.9 Units) in home games when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
BROWN is 3-1 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 4-0 straight up against BROWN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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PENNSYLVANIA (6 - 11) at CORNELL (10 - 10) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CORNELL is 70-37 ATS (+29.3 Units) after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
CORNELL is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
PENNSYLVANIA is 73-46 ATS (+22.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
PENNSYLVANIA is 43-21 ATS (+19.9 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
CORNELL is 2-1 against the spread versus PENNSYLVANIA over the last 3 seasons
PENNSYLVANIA is 3-1 straight up against CORNELL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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PRINCETON (9 - 10) at COLUMBIA (10 - 8) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PRINCETON is 85-60 ATS (+19.0 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
PRINCETON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
PRINCETON is 69-41 ATS (+23.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PRINCETON is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
COLUMBIA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games off a win against a conference rival since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
COLUMBIA is 2-2 against the spread versus PRINCETON over the last 3 seasons
PRINCETON is 3-1 straight up against COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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SIENA (9 - 12) at IONA (16 - 6) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IONA is 41-66 ATS (-31.6 Units) in February games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
IONA is 4-1 against the spread versus SIENA over the last 3 seasons
IONA is 5-0 straight up against SIENA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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CANISIUS (12 - 9) at MANHATTAN (11 - 10) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MANHATTAN is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
MANHATTAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
CANISIUS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CANISIUS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CANISIUS is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
MANHATTAN is 4-0 against the spread versus CANISIUS over the last 3 seasons
MANHATTAN is 4-1 straight up against CANISIUS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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NIAGARA (4 - 17) at MARIST (4 - 18) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NIAGARA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after a conference game this season.
NIAGARA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
NIAGARA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MARIST is 3-3 against the spread versus NIAGARA over the last 3 seasons
NIAGARA is 4-2 straight up against MARIST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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HIGH POINT (17 - 6) at COASTAL CAROLINA (16 - 7) - 2/6/2015, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HIGH POINT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
HIGH POINT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
HIGH POINT is 2-1 straight up against COASTAL CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, February 6

Dayton won six of last eight games with George Washington; home side won last five regular season meetings- Flyers beat GW twice in last four A-14 tourneys. Dayton split its last four road games, losing last two on foreign soil by 17-2 points, scoring 62 ppg. A-14 home favorites of 5 or less points are 9-2 vs spread. Colonials lost last two games, are 1-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-3-10-15 points- they're 2-5 against spread as an A-14 favorite this year.

Yale is 4-0, has one-game lead over Harvard team they play tomorrow in huge game, since Ivy has no postseason tourney. Yale won four of its last six games with Dartmouth, but can't look ahead, since Big Green beat the Bulldogs on Senior Night here LY. Big Green is 1-3 in Ivy, with losses by 11-7-11 points; they've forced turnovers on 26.9% of possesssions, tops in Ivy so far. Ivy League home favorites of 7+ points are 0-4 vs spread.

Brown is 0-4 in Ivy, 1-3 vs spread, losing by 18-4-8-21 points; they've lost their best player (transfer), are shooting just 24.1% from arc in four league games. Harvard has big game at Yale tomorrow; they're 3-1 so far in Ivy, winning by 11-3-25 points, with all three of those wins on road. Crimson won its last ten games with Brown, but two of last four went to OT, including LY's visit here. Ivy League home underdogs are 2-5.

Cornell split its first four Ivy games, allowing 49 or less points in three of four games; losing two of three at home. Big Red lost its last three games with Penn by 4-7-8 points; they're forcing turnovers 25.4% of time, and holding foes to 26.7% from arc. Quakers are turning ball over 24.4% of time in league games; they lost two of first three Ivy games, scoring 48.0 ppg in last two games, losing only road game by four. Ivy League home favorites of less than 7 points are 3-0 vs spread.

Princeton won two of first three Ivy games but they were all home tilts; Tigers are 0-6 in true road games, with four of six losses by 10+ points. Columbia split its first four games, losing two of three at home; Lions are making 40.2% from arc in league, but turning ball over 22.9% of the time. Princeton won nine of last ten series games, winning last visits here. Ivy League home teams are 4-3 in games with spread of less than 5 points.

Iona (-5) won 86-72 at Siena Jan 4, making 11-25 on arc, 62.1% inside arc in game they led by 10 at half. Gaels won their last three games, are 3-3 as MAAC home favorite, winning home games by 13-8-3-16-23-7- they won their last game in OT. Saints are 3-2 in last five games, 1-2 as road underdog, losing road games by 12-34-8 points, with wins at Fairfield, Niagara. Three of Siena's six MAAC losses are by 14+. MAAC double digit home favorites are 3-6 vs spread.

Manhattan (+4) won 63-60 at Canisius Jan 4, despite having -7 turnover ratio (15-8); Griffins made just 3-21 from arc, but shot 54.5% inside arc. Jaspers won/covered last three games, are 4-2 as home favorites, winning home games by four of five home wins by 7+- they lost to Rider at home. Canisius is 4-2 SU on road, 5-1 vs spread, 2-1 as dog, losing at Iona by 3, at Rider by 13. MAAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-13.

Marist won/covered last three games after starting 0-9 in MAAC; they're 6-1 vs spread in last seven games, and won 65-61 (+4.5) at Niagara week ago tonight, outscoring Eagles 7-2 in last 1:18. Foxes shot 57% inside arc that night. Marist is 1-0 as MAAC favorite, Niagara 2-3 as underdog on road, losing road games by 10-9-11-23 points, with win at St Peter's back on Nov 20th. MAAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 7-13.

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NCAAB

Friday, February 6

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
PRINCETON vs. COLUMBIA
Princeton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Princeton's last 7 games when playing on the road against Columbia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Columbia's last 7 games when playing at home against Princeton
Columbia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Princeton

7:00 PM
NIAGARA vs. MARIST
Niagara is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Niagara is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Marist is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games
Marist is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
HARVARD vs. BROWN
Harvard is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Brown
Harvard is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Brown
Brown is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Brown is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
CANISIUS vs. MANHATTAN
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Canisius's last 5 games when playing on the road against Manhattan
Canisius is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Manhattan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Manhattan's last 5 games at home
Manhattan is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

7:00 PM
SIENA vs. IONA
Siena is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Siena is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Iona
Iona is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Iona's last 6 games

7:00 PM
DARTMOUTH vs. YALE
Dartmouth is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Yale
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dartmouth's last 8 games when playing on the road against Yale
Yale is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Yale is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

7:00 PM
DAYTON vs. GEORGE WASHINGTON
Dayton is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against George Washington
Dayton is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
George Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
George Washington is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games

8:00 PM
PENNSYLVANIA vs. CORNELL
Pennsylvania is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pennsylvania's last 10 games when playing on the road against Cornell
Cornell is 6-10-3 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Pennsylvania
Cornell is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pennsylvania

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NCAAB

Friday, February 6


Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAB small conferences

Team to watch: Yale Bulldogs (15-6 SU, 8-3-1 ATS)

Upcoming: vs. Dartmouth on Friday, vs. Harvard on Saturday

Yale sits atop the Ivy League at 4-0 in conference play (15-6 overall) and it has won five games in a row (3-1 ATS) dating back to Jan. 10. Leading scorer Justin Sears has surpassed his average (14.7 ppg) in four straight outings and is 26 for 41 from the floor in his last three.

This weekend’s opponents, Dartmouth and Harvard, are both dealing with issues. A huge cheating scandal hit Dartmouth in early January and three basketball players were among 64 offending students. Of the three, only Brandon McDonnell (almost seven minutes per game) saw any real playing time, but the Big Green are 3-5 (1-4 ATS) since handing out the indefinite suspensions. Meanwhile, Harvard big man Kenyatta Smith (4.9 ppg, 3.4 ppg, 1.5 bpg) has missed the past four games with a leg injury and is questionable for this weekend.

Yale is 8-3-1 ATS on the season. Dartmouth is 2-8 ATS and Harvard is 5-7 ATS (2-4 ATS on the road).

Team to beware: East Tennessee State Buccaneers (13-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS)

Upcoming: vs. Wofford on Thursday, vs. Samford on Saturday

East Tennessee State’s 2014-15 campaign got off to an inauspicious start when 6’6’’, 250-pound forward Ron Giplaye went down with a season-ending knee injury in early December. Giplaye had played at least 13 minutes in each of his six games and had turned in a 10-point, nine-rebound performance in a win over UNC-Asheville.

ETSU is 4-11-1 ATS, including 1-5 ATS at home. It is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, a stretch that already includes ATS losses to upcoming opponents Samford and Wofford. The Bucs edged host Samford 76-74 and fell at Wofford 72-64. Senior guard Rashawn Rembert has scored in single-digits in each of the last three games and has shot a combined 6 for 23 from the floor in those three.

Samford is 12-6-1 ATS this season, having covered the spread in each of its past three contests. Wofford is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall.

Total team: Canisius Golden Griffins (12-9 SU, 4-6 O/U)

Upcoming: at Manhattan on Friday, at Monmouth on Sunday

The Golden Griffins have not scored more than 67 points in any of their last four contests, a span that includes a 46-point performance in a loss at Rider on Jan. 24. They had posted at least 76 points in their previous three.

Canisius won’t be helped by the absence of Phil Valenti (10.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.6 apg). The sophomore forward sustained an ankle injury last Friday and is expected to be sidelined for a few weeks.

The under is 6-4 in games involving the Golden Griffins this season, including 3-1 when they venture away from home. Three of their last four games have stayed under the total. Canisius’ previous meeting with Manhattan on Jan. 4 was a defensive battle in which both teams scored fewer than 30 points in the second half as the Jaspers survived 63-60.

[StarDust Bum]

Hot & Not Report

February 5, 2015


Money Makers:

Georgia Southern has only faced one team inside of the RPI's Top 150 so if you haven't taken notice of this squad yet, you're forgiven. But sharp bettors have been playing plenty of attention to the Eagles, who have been cashing tickets at a frenetic 11-2-1 against-the-spread clip. They face Ga. St. in Statesboro on Thursday night with first place in the Sun Belt Conference on the line. Ga. Southern, a four-point home 'dog to the Panthers, are unbeaten in nine home games with a 3-0-2 spread record. The Eagles lost 80-71 at Illinois in their only significant non-conference game, easily taking the cash as 23-point road underdogs.

Like Ga. Southern, Pepperdine is a home underdog Thursday night to BYU. The Waves, who won outright against the Cougars as 15-point 'dogs on Jan. 8, own a stellar 14-4-2 ATS record. They are led by junior forward Stacy Davis, who averages 15.7 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. Pepperdine (14-8 straight up), which plays five of its last seven games at home, is coming off of Saturday's 67-62 win at Saint Mary's as an eight-point underdog.

Davidson has failed to cover the number in back-to-back games and three of its last five. Nevertheless, Bob McKillop's squad has still compiled a 13-4 spread record for the season. There's a reason why Davidson hasn't been impressive lately, as the team is missing its best player due to a slight meniscus tear. Jack Gibbs missed his fourth consecutive game Wednesday when the Wildcats lost a 62-61 decision to St. Bonaventure as 7.5-point home 'chalk.' Gibbs is averaging 15.8 points, 4.9 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game. When Gibbs will return remains a mystery. Also, Jake Belford (7.5 PPG, 4.0 RPG) was lost to a season-ending injury in December. Davidson (14-6 SU) has an RPI of 55 with home games looming vs. Duquesne (2/7) and George Mason (2/11). This team's ATS production is clearly waning, so bettors should stay away until Gibbs returns.

Money Burners:

San Jose State has been a mess all season. The Spartans, who have the nation's worst ATS ledger (3-14-2), have seen their roster gutted by three season-ending injuries and the dismissals of three other players from the program. The starting backcourt (Devante Wilson and Jalen James) is gone due to injuries. Dave Wojcik's team has zero wins against D-1 competition and is 1-13-2 versus the number in its last 16 lined games. SJS has lost nine of its 10 Mountain West games by 11 points or more.

CSU Northridge, which competes in the Big West, has also seen its personnel decimated by six suspensions. The result has been a 4-13-1 ATS mark. The Matadors seem to be improving recently, however, going 3-3 ATS in their last six games. After playing at Cal St. Fullerton on Thursday, they return home to take on UC Davis.

Pittsburgh (15-8 SU) has been an NCAA Tournament mainstay during Jamie Dixon's tenure, but it has limped to a 5-14-1 ATS record. Barring a hot run the rest of the regular season, the Panthers are going to have to win the ACC Tournament in order to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. The first issue came up in November when Durand Johnson (8.8 PPG last year) was lost to a season-long suspension. Next, Cameron Johnson (4.5 PPG) suffered a shoulder injury that has kept him out since early December. Pitt did pick up its best win this past Saturday when it upset Notre Dame as a home underdog. The Panthers host Syracuse this Saturday before going to Louisville on Feb. 11.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Penn State owns a 7-0 spread record as an underdog this season. Looking ahead at its schedule, PSU will probably be a 'dog in at least five of its last eight regular-season games.

-- The 'over' has hit in seven straight games for Pitt.

-- Florida is mired in a 1-5 ATS slump with its only spread cover coming by one-half point in a 52-50 win at Alabama as a 1.5-point road fave. The Gators, who have seen the 'over' go 9-2 in their last 11 games, will be home 'dogs for the first time in a long time Saturday night vs. top-ranked Kentucky.

-- Seton Hall has been a money maker with a 15-6 spread record, going 8-2 versus the number at home. However, the Pirates are 2-4 ATS in their last six outings. They get Marquette (2/7) and Georgetown (2/10) at home in their next two contests.

-- DePaul took the money in its first seven Big East games before losing three in a row both SU and ATS. The Blue Demons snapped out of that funk with Tuesday's 75-62 win over Seton Hall as 2.5-point home 'dogs. They'll be healthy puppies in their next three games that are all on the road.

-- After Wednesday's 60-58 home win over Ohio St., Purdue has won four in a row and five of its last six both SU and ATS. The Boilermakers are 9-2 ATS at home and the 'under' has connected at an 8-1 clip in their games in West Lafayette.

[StarDust Bum]

Tournament Forecast (2/6/15)

February 6, 2015


2015 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field thru action on Thursday, Feb. 5, 2015

This is our third installment of bracketology for the 2015 NCAA Tournament and comes as we wrap up the first weekend of February.

Forecast 1 - Forecast 2

Last week my bracket only had one difference from Lunardi where I had in NC State in the field vs. him having two CUSA teams making the cut: Old Dominion as an at-large (I had ODU as CUSA automatic bid) and Western Kentucky as earning the CUSA automatic berth (I did not have Western Kentucky in mix for an at-large).

Now that we briefly looked back at last week’s difference (which we will do every week) let’s jump into the latest 2015 projection! Below we breakdown each conference into three buckets initially (with a fourth bucket “life support” coming in our next installment along with a more detailed breakdown – see last year’s Bracketology entries to get a feel for next week’s template):

1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good - teams highly likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid
3) Need Wins - teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season

**Teams are listed in the s-curve order I see them now within conference**

**To add some color to each team I will include their SBPI ranking through action on Thursday January 29. For one bid leagues I will also show the SBPI ranking of the best team in the conference that was not selected as my automatic bid entrant to give a feel for their competition**

**Last key to remember when looking this over – I always lean towards INCLUDING teams in my breakdown that have any shot at earning a bid; some listed are extreme longshots but I would prefer including any potential candidates vs. adding them later out of blue. Leveraging that idea further I will lean towards keeping teams in say “Need Wins” versus moving them up to “Looking Good” till I feel certain they are a lock to earn a bid – do not want to slide teams down levels, only up. Many teams are closer to being left off completely versus moving up a level at this point in the season**

America East: Albany #212 (Stony Brook #115)

American Athletic: Cincinnati #57
Looking Good: SMU #73
Need Wins: Tulsa #63, Temple #59, Memphis #100, UConn #92

Atlantic Ten: VCU #11
Need Wins: Dayton #69, George Washington #62, Davidson #61, Rhode Island #87, UMass #95

ACC: Duke #1
Looking Good: Virginia #10, North Carolina #19, Louisville #8, Notre Dame #107
Need Wins: Miami #52, NC State #35, Clemson #76, Pittsburgh #54

Atlantic Sun: North Florida #168 (Florida Gulf Coast #200)

Big 12: Kansas #4
Looking Good: Iowa State #29, West Virginia #14, Oklahoma #18, Baylor #7
Need Wins: Oklahoma State #17, Texas #28

Big East: Villanova #3
Looking Good: Butler #5, Providence #21, Georgetown #24
Need Wins: Seton Hall #31, Xavier #15, St. John’s #51

Big Sky: Eastern Washington #211 (Northern Arizona #164)

Big South: High Point #138 (Gardner-Webb #135)

Big Ten: Wisconsin #9
Looking Good: Maryland #60, Indiana #45
Need Wins: Michigan State #33, Iowa #25, Ohio State #27, Illinois #41, Purdue #48, Michigan #46, Nebraska #102, Minnesota #43

Big West: Long Beach State #82 (Cal Poly #75)

Colonial: William & Mary #106 (Northeastern #173)

Conference USA: Western Kentucky #96 (Old Dominion #80)

Horizon: Cleveland State #74 (Green Bay #83)

Ivy: Yale #36 (Harvard #81)

MAAC: Iona #166 (Canisius #185)

MAC: Buffalo #71 (Toledo #84)

MEAC: North Carolina Central #193 (Norfolk State #238)

Missouri Valley: Wichita State #13
If WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a spot away from the at-large field. The Shockers are currently 7-2 vs. RPI Top 100 teams.
Need Wins: Northern Iowa #68

Mountain West: San Diego State #38
If SAN DIEGO STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a spot away from the at-large field. The Aztecs are currently 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100 teams including a signature win over RPI #11 Utah earlier in the season.
Need Wins: Colorado State #79, Boise State #56, Wyoming #195

Northeast: St. Francis NY #199 (St. Francis PA #205)

Ohio Valley: Murray State #131 (Eastern Kentucky #85)

Pac 12: Arizona #6
Looking Good: Utah #12
Need Wins: UCLA #20, Stanford #34, Oregon #90, Washington #121, Oregon State #113

Patriot: Bucknell #191 (Holy Cross #198)

SEC: Kentucky #2
Looking Good: Arkansas #26, Georgia #42
Need Wins: LSU #94, Texas A&M #40, Ole Miss #44, Tennessee #89, Alabama #47, Florida #16

Southern: Wofford #109 (Chattanooga #159)

Southland: Stephen F. Austin #98 (Sam Houston State #126)

SWAC: Texas Southern #236 (Southern #230)

Summit: Oral Roberts #98 (South Dakota State #158)

Sun Belt: Georgia Southern #149 (Georgia State #130)

West Coast: Gonzaga #23
If GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.
Need Wins: St Mary’s #58, BYU #30

WAC: New Mexico State #141 (Chicago State #234)

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32

Looking Good: 17 (unchanged)

Currently I project 49 of the 68 bids are earned.

Need Wins: 43 (unchanged)

That leaves 43 teams that are in the mix for 19 open bids.

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.

For the remaining 19 open bids this is the way I see it currently, which will obviously be very fluid (listed in conference alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference):

Tulsa (LAST FIVE IN)
Dayton
Miami, Fl.
NC State (LAST FIVE IN)
Oklahoma State
Texas
Seton Hall
Xavier
St. Johns (LAST FIVE IN)
Michigan State
Iowa
Ohio State
Northern Iowa
Colorado State
UCLA
Stanford
LSU
Texas A&M (LAST FIVE IN)
Ole Miss (LAST FIVE IN)

FIRST FIVE OUT – alphabetical order by conference:

Temple
George Washington
Illinois
Purdue
Oregon

Multiple bid conferences (total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):

B12 (7)
BE (7): Added St. John’s
ACC (7): Lost Syracuse (self-imposed sanction)
B10 (6)
SEC (6)
P12 (4): Added UCLA
AAC (3): Added Tulsa & lost Temple
A10 (2): Lost Davidson
MWC (2)
MVC (2)

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky vs. the Field

February 6, 2015

Top-ranked Kentucky has arrived at the SEC stretch that loomed ominously, at least on paper, before conference play began.
It consists of back-to-back road games that have those brave souls that have already backed Kentucky to enjoy a perfect run through the 2014-15 season a little on edge. The destinations, Gainesville and Baton Rouge, coupled with the talent they’ll face, represent a challenge.

Last year’s team lost at both stops.

Florida, who the Wildcats face in Saturday’s night’s college basketball primetime showcase, beat them three times last season. The Gators have routed UK at the O’Connell Center two years in a row, rolling by a combined total of 27 points. Mind you, those Kentucky teams were less polished, not as deep and weren’t the juggernaut this team is, but it’s still disconcerting that no one that is going to log major minutes on Saturday has ever won in Gainesville.

Willie Cauley-Stein, playing through ankle pain, is 0-for-2 at UF, but he’s at least tasted victory against Billy Donovan’s team. All the sophomores have something in common with this year’s elite freshmen class in that they would all be experiencing a first in defeating Florida.

Despite that recent history in play, this particular Wildcats team has shown enough to command respect from the books, who expect to see lopsided wins from now until deep into the SEC Tournament, barring injury.

“They're going to be double-digit favorites now all the way out,” said Johnny Avello, the executive director of Race and Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas. “At LSU they're definitely double-digits. Arkansas (on Feb. 28) would be something if they were home, but that's not the same game in Kentucky. Georgia on the road, they should handle. All of them are perceived as games they should get easily.”

This Gators challenge could be the most interesting if Donovan finds a way to pull his team together after Wednesday’s 67-61 loss at Vanderbilt, but this certainly isn’t the group that humbled the Harrison twins last year. Not even close.

Patric Young, a force inside and on the boards who could match up athletically with Kentucky’s bigs, graduated and is now playing in Turkey. Tag-team partner Will Yeguete, wing Casey Prather and heady point guard Scottie Wilbekin also all exhausted their eligibility.

Walk-on Jacob Kurtz is the lone senior who sees playing that was on the team last season. He played one minute in the three games against Kentucky. Michigan transfer Jon Horford, who had his Wolverines career ended by UK in last year’s NCAA tournament, has been in and out of the lineup for Florida and hasn’t had the anticipated impact. The same can be said about Duke transfer Erik Murphy. Former prep All-American Chris Walker can best hang athletically with UK’s giants, but he’s been a disappointment, struggling with foul trouble and inconsistency. He’s played just nine minutes in each of the last two games.

It could be revenge time for Cauley-Stein, Dakari Johnson and Anthony Lee, who should impose their will inside with help from talented freshman Karl Anthony Towns. Fellow freshman Trey Lyles is likely to miss the game due to illness.

Florida wings Dorian Finney-Smith and Michael Frazier had their moments against the Cats last year, but now have to shoulder more of the load while the defense focuses more of their attention on them. Guards Eli Carter, Kasey Hill and freshman Chris Chiozza must handle intense pressure and barely held on against Arkansas’ full-court pressure just last Saturday.

Florida escaped the Razorbacks 57-56 when Frazier nailed two late free-throws, but the aura of invincibility that the Gators carried at the O-Dome has largely disappeared this season. Miami, UConn and LSU have already won there. Louisiana-Monroe managed to take them to overtime.

We could very well have already witnessed Kentucky’s toughest SEC tests, since it was forced to work OT by Ole Miss and at Texas A&M in consecutive games in early January. Only Vanderbilt has come within single-digits since, with the margin of victory over its last seven games a massive 19.4 points per game.

Head coach John Calipari has praised how engaged he believes this team is, so the best thing they can do to avoid complacency is to embrace the massive target on their backs and chase perfection.

“We haven’t had a bad practice. They haven’t all been high watermarks, but they’ve all been good. There’s not been what I would say is a bad practice, so I can go every day knowing, ‘what are we doing today?,’” said Calipari, comparing the team’s habits to his 2012 national championship team. “It’s a very smart team. I can do stuff on the fly.”

Whether they hammer Florida or simply survive, the next stop is Baton Rouge, where they suffered an 87-82 loss last season. This marks the final time Kentucky will play back-to-back true road games, having survived the first set at South Carolina and Missouri without complications. With NBA prospects Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin leading the Tigers frontcourt, Tuesday’s visit to the Pete Maravich Center could carry its own potential pitfalls. Still, Auburn just pulled off a win at LSU on Thursday, so the expectation is that the Wildcats will get through unscathed.

Look for the payoff available for Kentucky running the table to take a hit following these two games, since a similar Saturday/Tuesday stretch against Arkansas and at Georgia would become the next major hurdle. It doesn’t seem too daunting. Sportsbook.ag still has UK at +250 if you want to back a perfect run, while backing it to take a spill remains favored at -400.

Having beaten Kansas, Providence, Texas, North Carolina, UCLA and rival Louisville prior to SEC play, it’s no wonder that many have seen enough and are getting behind the defending national runner-up to break through.

Just the other day, Avello says the Wynn took a significant bet on Kentucky to win it all. He anticipates it is going to get to the point where all the sportsbooks will be looking for someone to knock them off in the tournament, though the odds to get out of their region and so forth could ultimately get pricey once the bracket is released.

“I don’t think I'm alone. You have so much money coming in on them already and we’re only going to see more action,” said Avello. “They’re going to struggle in at least one game come the tournament. You know, someone is going to give them a run for their money, and they really do have issues shooting the ball that creep up from time to time. But as far as the public goes, they’re going to be tough to come off of.”

Bettors that seek out more favorable odds are likely going to be among the few who look elsewhere when backing another potential champ at the window or in filling out their brackets. The combination of stifling defense, breathtaking length and impressive depth have put Kentucky on a pedestal few teams have reached. It’s similar to UNLV's run to a title in ’90 and flirting with perfection in ’91. There is seemingly no peer.

“I think that’s why they’re overwhelming favorites, no longer even money anymore. There’s nobody in that other spot,” responded Avello when asked if any team has separated itself as a clear-cut second option. “Virginia, Villanova, Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, Kansas, all of them are in that pack of teams that could be No. 2, but there is no one you can really put up there as a foil for Kentucky.

“We’ve seen all those teams lose.”

The ’90-‘91 Runnin’ Rebels ended up 34-1 after a two-point loss to Duke in the Championship game. If history is to repeat itself and a perfect season is to be denied late, it’s likely going to take another superpower to do the dirty work.

We just don’t know who that could be yet.

We do know Kentucky appears to be formidable and consistent enough to take seriously as it chases history. Following this pair of games, it will have cleared a few more hurdles.

[StarDust Bum]

Bracketology Update

February 6, 2015


We're now beyond the midway point of the college basketball season. "Bubble" talk now permeates the discussion. In fact, we are less than one month away from conference tournaments commencing!

Thus, we begin to value our "Bracketology" updates a bit more as we more accurately project where many of these teams will slot on Selection Sunday.

For our newest update, we include not only each team's record, but also its "RPI" (Ratings Percentage index) number, a calculation that begins to become more illuminating as we get deeper into conference action. All straight up (SU) records and RPI are thru February 4.

Note that for all of our "Bracketology" updates, the term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in each region, and usual favorable geographic placement in the sub-regional round.

As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this season will begin on Thursday, March 19, with the Dayton "First Four" games played on March 17 and 18.

Remember, Selection Sunday is only five weeks away!

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)

At Charlotte...

1 Virginia (SU 20-1, RPI-3) vs. 16 High Point (17-6, 111)...Even after last Saturday's late loss to Duke, Virginia is not yet in any danger of being knocked out of a top regional seed, especially after Tony Bennett's Cavs bounced back so strongly to whip North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Monday night. The Big South as usual looks up for grabs entering next month's conference tourney near Myrtle Beach. At the moment, a measured vote for Scott Cherry's High Point, with likely league MVP F John Brown, though Radford and Winthrop could also be considered co-favorites entering the conference tourney. Note that Cherry, a former aide to Jim Larranaga at George Mason during its Final Four season of 2006, is being mentioned as a possible successor to Paul Hewitt in Fairfax if the Patriots continue their recent slide.

8 Seton Hall (15-7, 45) vs. 9 Texas (14-8, 36)...Both of these sides are far from being safely into the field, but we project a bit down the road and expect the Selection Committee to give rather wide berths to the Big East and Big 12. The Hall, however, is wobbling with four losses in its last six, and the Longhorns continue to sit in the lower half of the Big 12. Neither are advised to test the Selection Committee's love for their respective elagues by finishing under .500 in conference play. These sides could both quickly drop into serious bubble trouble if they stumble a few more times in the next couple of weeks.

At Omaha...

4 Wichita State (20-3, 14) vs. 13 Yale (15-6, 51)...Wichita is now technically behind Northern Iowa in the Valley standings after last Saturday's loss at Cedar Falls, but gets the Panthers at Koch Arena in a few weeks and can still claim the top seed in the upcoming "Arch Madness" (otherwise known as the MVC Tournament) in St. Louis. We still believe the Shockers are a more-likely protected Big Dance seed than UNI. As for Yale, it has jumped out to the early lead in the Ivy, though will be facing Tommy Amaker's four-time defending league champion Harvard in a crucial battle this weekend at New Haven.

5 Virginia Commonwealth (18-4, 9) vs. 12 Iowa (13-8, 51) /Colorado State (19-4/28)...VCU is moving forward without key cog Briante Weber, now out with a season-ending injury, but Shaka Smart's Rams have good depth and still appear to be the team to beat in the A-10. They're also the only certain qualifier out of the loop for the Dance. In one of the play-in games at Dayton we slot a couple of teams sliding dangerously close to the cut line. Iowa took a three-game losing streak into Thursday's game at Michigan, but two of those losses were vs. Wisconsin, and road wins at North Carolina and Ohio State are just enough to keep the Hawkeyes in the field...for the moment. CSU's at-large credentials took another jolt when losing for a second time to Mountain West border rival Wyoming on Wednesday. It is no guarantee that the Committee goes three-deep in the Mountain, which appears down this season. But after losing twice to Wyo, how can we put the Rams above Larry Shyatt's Cowboys?

At Pittsburgh...

2 Villanova (20-2, 7) vs. 15 Georgia Southern (16-4, 107)...Villanova is probably sitting just outside of the number-one line at the moment, but is poised to slide into a top regional seed should one of our other projected number ones stumble in the next few weeks. The Cats are a good bet to be ticketed to the Pittsburgh sub-regional at whatever seed they claim on Selection Sunday. The Sun Belt race at the moment features Ron Hunter's Georgia State and loop newcomer Georgia Southern leading the pack. The Panthers were favored in last year's conference tourney before losing in OT to UL-Lafayette, but the Eagles scored a rousing win over State on Thursday to take over first place in the loop. Matters get settled next month in the conference tourney at the U of New Orleans' Lakefront Arena.

7 Baylor (17-5, 15) vs. 10 Texas A&M (15-6, 33)...Wouldn't this be a fascinating sub-regional tussle between former longtime rivals in the old Southwest Conference and the Big 12? Baylor might project a bit higher than a 7 seed, but we have pushed the Bears a bit down the Big 12 ladder and expect Scott Drew's bunch could be shuffled downward on Selection Sunday due to traffic from their conference. Even after a midweek loss at Ole Miss, Texas A&M looks to be part of a larger-than-expected SEC contingent that could number as many as six bids on Selection Sunday.

At Jacksonville...

3 West Virginia (18-4, 23) vs. 14 Iona (16-6, 52)...Though Bob Huggins' WVU stubbed its toe at midweek vs. Oklahoma, the Big 12 looks to be a likely 7-bid league, and the Mountaineers still project in protected-seed territory (though we have sent them a bit farther away from what would be their preferred sub-regional in nearby Pittsburgh). Tim Cluess' Iona is no stranger to the Big Dance and has drawn clear in the Metro-Atlantic, but this does not look to be quite as dangerous a Gaels side as in recent years, and any number of contenders (watch out for Manhattan, Rider, Monmouth, Canisius, and the "Pollsters" from Quinnipiac) appear capable of an upset run at next month's conference tourney in Albany.

6 Ohio State (17-6, 41) vs. 11 Tulsa (16-5, 43)...Just when we are about to move the Buckeyes up another line or two, they stumbled again on Wednesday at Purdue, so at the moment OSU stays in the 6-7 seed range despite owning one of the nation's most exciting frosh in high-scoring D'Angelo Russell. Tulsa, which returned four starters from last year's Big Dance qualifier under Danny Manning, is poised for a return trip to the Dance under first-year HC Frank Haith. If the Golden Hurricane can carry its current lead in the American all of the way to the conference tourney in Hartford, it will likely secure an at-large bid ahead of Selection Sunday.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)

At Charlotte...

1 Duke (19-3, 5) vs. 16 St. Francis NY (14-9, 146)/Albany (15-7, 135)...Perhaps we have over-reacted to Duke's rousing win last Saturday at unbeaten Virginia, moving the Blue Devils to the top line at the expense of the likes of Wisconsin, Villanova, and Kansas. But we project a bit with these brackets as well and believe Duke retains an excellent chance at a top seed. The America East race has been turned inside-out the past few weeks by the Great Danes from Albany, looking for a return trip to the Dance and having zoomed ahead of all else in the A-E with a blistering 10-0 start to league play. At the moment, the Terriers of Brooklyn-based St. Francis (NY) have the pole position in the Northeast, not insignificant since the conference winner has homecourt edge in a conference tourney played at campus sites. Looming close behind in the NE standings are Smithfield, RI-based Bryant, the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, Maurice Stokes' alma mater St. Francis (PA), Mount Saint Mary's, and Bob Beckel's Staten Island-based alma mater, Wagner. America East and Northeast champs have had to endure the 16 vs. 16 play-in games before.

8 Cincinnati (15-6, 31) vs. 9 Dayton (17-4, 35)...This would both a nice neighborhood battle...unlimited cheese coneys from Gold Star Chili to the winner! Cincy and Dayton both project into this seed range, so the local matchup is not impossible. The Bearcats look to be on course for a return to the Dance even minus HC Mick Cronin (out of decency we spare the use of our old nickname for Cronin), now on medical leave. We are not sure how deep the Committee looks in the A-10, but beyond VCU we believe Dayton looks the best bet for an at-large. Remember, Archie Miller's Flyers advanced to the Elite Eight last spring with a similar-looking team.

At Louisville...

4 Oklahoma (15-7, 18) vs. 13 William & Mary (14-7, 74)...Such is our respect for the Big 12 that we believe Oklahoma, even with seven losses, is likely to project into protected seed status. With a solid body of work in non-league play, plus good road wins at Tulsa, Texas, and Oklahoma State, Lon Kruger appears to have his best Sooner team in four seasons at Norman. And they're getting excited in Williamsburg, as the Tribe of W&M is on the cusp of its first-ever Big Dance invitation that came so close a year ago before losing in the last second of the conference tourney final at Baltimore vs. U-Dee. Stylish, long-haired sr. G Marcus Thornton (19 ppg) is the likely Colonial MVP.

5 Maryland (19-4, 16) vs. 12 Wofford (18-5, 46)...The Terps' numbers might suggest a protected seed, but their form of late has been a bit spotty, with a handful of close calls vs. decided underdogs (such as Northwestern and Penn State) and recent heavy losses at Indiana and Ohio State. So we put Maryland at a five in this report. Meanwhile, Wofford has taken command in the SoCon as it looks for back-to-back Big Dance trips under vet HC Mike Young and star G Karl Cochran.

At Columbus...

2 Wisconsin (20-2, 6) vs. 15 NC Central (17-6, 111)...Wisconsin is sitting as the best-rated Big Ten side at the moment and is poised to move into a number one regional seed should any of our other projected top seeds stumble in the next month. The Badgers will have an even better shot at a top regional slot if they can win next month's Big Ten Tourney, this year in Chicago. Looking for back-to-back Big Dance visits are HC LeVelle Moton's NC Central Eagles, who should be safely clear of the 16 vs. 16 play-in game as long as they maintain current form and don't get KO'd in next month's MEAC Tourney at the Norfolk Scope, once upon a time of the regional homes for the ABA Virginia Squires during Dr. J's earliest days as a pro hoopster.

7 Georgetown (15-7, 24) vs. 10 Georgia (14-7, 25)...Here are a couple of "G" teams who have slid down the seeding ladder in the past week, though safely remaining in the field...for now. Georgetown, recently in contention for a protected seed, has suffered home losses to Xavier and Providence within the past week and has slipped into the 7-8 range. As for Georgia, we can't penalize the Bulldogs too much for their competitive Tuesday loss at Kentucky, but a previous 17-point setback at South Carolina is the sort of result Mark Fox's team has to avoid in February if it wants to stay on the safe side of the cut line.

At Seattle...

3 Utah (17-4, 11) vs. 14 Valparaiso (21-4, 90)...The Pac-12 might only go three deep on Selection Sunday, but we believe Utah is surely going to be one of those three and perhaps rewarded with a protected seed, though we admit that any more efforts like last Thursday's loss at UCLA could hurt those prospects. Bryce Drew's Valpo has more wins (21) that any team in the country save Kentucky (22) and both Notre Dame and Northern Iowa (21 each, the same as the Crusaders). But the path to the Dance through the Horizon Tourney is tricky with capable Green Bay and Cleveland State lurking, and it is doubtful Valpo has a strong enough profile to merit an at-large bid if needed

6 Arkansas (17-5, 22) vs. 11 Michigan (13-9, 57)...Though we do not project any SEC team save Kentucky to receive a protected seed, Arkansas is likely to be one of several (we peg six in this update) SEC reps to get a call on Selection Sunday. We also stick our necks out a bit with Michigan, which took nine SU losses into last Thursday's game vs. Iowa. Injury problems have proven costly to the Wolverines, though that might prove a bonus at the cut line if John Beilein can keep his team in the bubble mix into March.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Cleveland)

At Louisville...

1 Kentucky (22-0, 2) vs. 16 Bucknell (12-12, 182)/New Mexico State (13-10, 167)...Never mind the nuances of the RPI, expect Coach Cal's Cats to be the top overall seed on Selection Sunday. If they haven't already, UK fans can make their plans for the Louisville sub-regional. The Patriot champ has been involved in past play-in games, and this season's conference race has been turned inside-out with preseason favorite Lafayette taking on some water in recent weeks and CBS head honcho Les Moonves' alma mater Bucknell suddenly emerging along with unheralded Colgate as the leaders in the race. Also keep an eye on Army, with perhaps its best team since Coach K's years in the late '70s, and of course the memorable Bob Knight editions of the late '60s and into 1970. In the WAC, New Mexico State finally has skywalking G Daniel Mullings back in the lineup and will again be the favorite in the conference tourney at Las Vegas next month.

8 Indiana (16-7, 30) vs. 9 Oklahoma State (15-7, 29)...Indiana and its 80-ppg offense is a lot of fun to watch, but the Hoosiers' defensive issues are going to prevent Tom Crean from feeling too comfy about an at-large invite for the next several weeks. And if IU blows its chance at a bid, is Crean going to be in trouble? Meanwhile, Ok State is hanging at .500 in the rough-and-tumble Big 12, which should be good enough to get a favorable call from the Committee on Selection Sunday. Recent wins over Baylor and at Texas have the Cowboys looking more like an NCAA Tourney team.

At Jacksonville....

4 North Carolina (17-6, 16) vs. 13 Buffalo (15-6, 40)...With UNC finding creative ways to blow its biggest games, we do not think Roy Williams' current edition is a serious title contender as some recent editions. But there are an ample number of soft spots in the ACC for the Heels to win enough to get a protected seed on Selection Sunday. There would be a definite Tobacco Road flavor to a possible matchup vs. Buffalo, which has emerged as the team to beat in the MAC behind second-year HC and former Duke G Bobby Hurley.

5 Northern Iowa (21-2, 19) vs. 12 Murray State (19-4, 77)...We suppose UNI could warrant a protected seed, especially after last week's rousing victory over Wichita, but we project a loss in the rematch vs. the Shockers, which probably moves the Panthers down to the 5-seed range. Nonetheless, UNI looks securely into the field of 68, along with Wichita, San Diego State, VCU, and maybe Dayton as the only mid-majors who appear solid with their at-large credentials (yes, we know Mountain West and A-10 reps don't like to be called mid-majors!). Murray State has no problem embracing the mid-major label and looms as a dangerous sub-regional foe, as it has assumed command of the Ohio Valley. A possible showdown vs. recently-surging Belmont in the conference tourney next month in Nashville would be, as Ed Sullivan used to say, "a really big shoooo."

At Portland...

2 Arizona (20-2, 24) vs. 15 Texas Southern (11-11, 132)...Arizona was fancying itself as a top regional seed in the West for the first month of the season, but road losses at UNLV and Oregon State are not befitting a top seed. Even with a close December home win over Gonzaga, we think the Zags are more likely to grab the West's top seed, likely moving the Wildcats out of the region. The Houston-based Tigers from Texas Southern, with non-league upset wins at Michigan State and Kansas State (not bad results for a low-major team with four new starters!), would be the one SWAC rep that would likely be able to bypass the 16 vs. 16 play-in game.

7 SMU (18-4, 21) vs. 10 Purdue (15-8, 76)...After being perhaps the final team left out of the 68-team field a year ago, expect Larry Brown's SMU to be comfortably on the safe side of the cut-line prior to this year's Selection Sunday. A recent "mover" has been Purdue, suddenly up to third in the Big Ten and further solidifying its surprising at-large credentials with a midweek win over Ohio State. All of which is taking some of the heat off of HC Matt Painter, acknowledged by many Big Ten insiders to be on the hot seat this season.

At Pittsburgh...

3 Notre Dame (21-3, 27) vs. 14 South Dakota State (17-7, 115)...We're not sure why the RPI doesn't like Notre Dame a bit more (did the loss at Pitt hurt that much?), but the Fighting Irish look a solid protected seed to us. The Summit Tourney at hoops-mad Sioux Falls, SD is annually one of the wildest mid-major events in March. Next month, it might come down to a battle of the Dakotas between "South State" and "North State" (we project Scott Nagy's Jackrabbits from the South as the likely rep, but as we mentioned, anything goes in this annual free-for-all).

6 Butler (17-6, 14) vs. 11 Wyoming (19-4, 62)...The RPI doesn't seem to love Wyo very much, but the Cowboys are not showing signs of buckling as they have done (mostly due to injuries) the past couple of seasons. A pair of wins over border rival CSU should have the Cowboys ahead of the Rams in the at-large queue (though we still have projected CSU as an at-large play-in team). While the RPI doesn't seem to like Wyo too much, it is very much likes Butler, whose 14 RPI suggests that maybe the Bulldogs ought to get protected seed consideration.

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles)

at Seattle...

1 Gonzaga (22-1, 8) vs. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (16-7, 133)...After a couple of losses by Arizona, the Zags now project to the top spot in the West Regional and are a good bet to stay there as they figure, as usual, to cruise through the WCC. Shades of 2013's "Dunk City" at FGCU, as the Eagles have moved to the lead in the Atlantic Sun with a few remnants of their Sweet Sixteen team from two years ago still in the fold. But FGCU won't be sneaking up on anyone in this Big Dance. Wonder if HC Andy Enfield (currently struggling at USC) wishes he hadn't left Fort Myers?

8 San Diego State (18-5, 26) vs. 9 LSU (16-5, 39)...This doesn't appear to be as formidable of an SDSU team as Steve Fisher has put on the court the past couple of years. But the numbers suggest the Aztecs are one of the few mid-majors to be solidly in place for an at-large bid should they lose in their conference tourney (in the MW's case at Las Vegas). We're keeping close watch on developments in the SEC, where LSU has tended to play erratically, but road wins at Ole Miss and Florida suggest the Tigers are good enough to stay on the safe side of the cut line.

At Omaha...

4 Iowa State (16-5, 13) vs. 13 Stephen F. Austin (18-3, 83)...Fred Hoiberg's ISU has advanced to the round of 32 and Sweet 16 the past two seasons; by that logic, do the Cyclones get to the Elite 8 this March? We'll see, and we expect them to have a protected seed to begin their next postseason quest. Hoiberg would certainly not allow his troops to overlook SFA, which made some noise for HC Brad Underwood (a former Frank Martin aide) last season when dumping VCU in the sub-regionals. First, however, the Lumberjacks have to take care of dangerous Sam Houston State and others in the Southland Tourney next month in the Houston suburb of Katy.

5 Michigan State (15-7, 38) vs. 12 St. Mary's (17-5, 68)/Ole Miss (15-7, 44)...We know that a five seed looks a bit aggressive for Michigan State's numbers, but we base the projection as much upon history as anything else, and current form suggests that Tom Izzo might have another team ready to peak late in the season. The other at-large play-in game has several candidates, and we think Randy Bennett's Saint Mary's rates a slight nod over BYU (which has stumbled a few more times) out of Gonzaga's WCC. As for Ole Miss, its midweek success over Texas A&M was huge and gives it four wins on the trot, definitely putting the Rebs back on Selection Committee radar.

At Portland...

2 Kansas (19-3, 1) vs. 15 Eastern Washington (16-5, 93)...The RPI apparently overlooks such info as Kansas' 32-point loss to Kentucky in its formula to rank the Jayhawks as the top team in its calculation. KU might still get a regional top seed, but plenty of banana peels are on the ground in the Big 12, and we believe Bill Self's team likely ends up a 2 or 3 seed. If EWU noses out Sac State and Montana in the Big Sky, it might be a team to watch, having won in pre-league play at Indiana and owning the nation's top scorer in rapid-fire G Tyler Harvey (23.4 ppg)

7 Stanford (15-6, 32) vs. 10 Temple (16-7, 42)...As mentioned earlier, this seems a rather barren season in the Pac-12, and we do not project the Committee going deeper than three teams on Selection Sunday. Stanford, however, projects as one of those chosen teams, as Johnny Dawkins has impressively stabilized the situation in Palo Alto (no more talk on The Farm these days about Dawkins being on the hot seat, either!). Fran Dunphy's Temple has been on the move since all of its transfers gained eligibility in December and the Owls own a big win over Kansas that can be cashed for value on Selection Sunday.

At Columbus....

3 Louisville (19-3, 12) vs. 14 UC Davis (16-4, 93)...Rick Pitino is now playing in the ACC, but the 'Ville has made a seamless transition to its new neighborhood and could be on the one or two-line by the time we get to Selection Sunday. As for Kimberly Guilfoyle's alma mater UC Davis, it has stayed at or near the top of the Big West race with the nation's top three-point shooting accuracy (45.2%!). Star G Corey Hawkins looks like he could be the difference-maker in the league, though don't forget how a sub-.500 Cal Poly side (still lurking) won the conference tourney at Anaheim last March. The Aggies, as well as top contender UC Irvine, will be looking for their first-ever Big Dance invitations next month at Honda Center.

6 Providence (17-6, 20) vs. 11 La Tech (17-5, 87)...Ed Cooley's Providence has been a mild surprise all season, not skipping a beat after the graduation of do-everything G Bryce Cotton. The Friars look well on the safe side of the cut line after their second win of the season against Georgetown on Wednesday night. Conference USA is a logjam at the top, but we don't think there will be more than the winner of the conference tourney (this year held in Birmingham) to make the field of 68. At the moment, a slight nod to Michael White's La Tech, a narrow loser in last year's conference tourney in El Paso. Keep an eye on ascending UAB, which gets home edge in the tourney next month, while Tim Floyd's UTEP could also be a team to watch in Birmingham.

Last four in: Iowa, Colorado State, Saint Mary's, Ole Miss.

Last four out: Xavier, Miami-Fla., St. John's, Illinois.

Next four out: Boise State, George Washington, Rhode Island, BYU.

[StarDust Bum]

Kentucky at Florida

February 6, 2015


After going to the Elite Eight in four consecutive seasons, Florida (12-10 straight up, 7-13-1 against the spread) looks like it is going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2008. However, if the Gators can knock off unbeaten and top-ranked Kentucky on Saturday night at The O-Dome, they'll instantly jump right back in the middle of the bubble conversation.

On the flip side, if UF loses to UK, the only bubble it will need to worry about is one of the NIT variety.

Billy Donovan's team lost four seniors that led it to the Final Four last season. Nevertheless, nearly every poll and publication had UF as a preseason Top-10 team. So what's gone wrong?

Well, there are a slew of issues negatively impacting this team. Michael Frazier II, one of the nation's top 3-point shooters the last two seasons, isn't getting nearly as many good looks from beyond the arc. Frazier's 3-point percentage has dipped to 39.6% after he connected on 44.7% and 46.8% in his sophomore and freshman campaigns, respectively.

Most of all, the sophomores just aren't producing. Chris Walker and Kasey Hill were both McDonald's All-Americans coming out of high school. Both have talent galore and show flashes of brilliance, but neither player has been able to consistently perform at an elite level.

Kentucky (22-0 SU, 11-11 ATS) didn't play particularly well in Tuesday's home win over Georgia. Facing a UGA squad that was without its leading scorer and rebounder, UK beat the Bulldogs 69-58 as an 18.5-point home favorite. Andrew Harrison was the catalyst with 23 points and seven assists compared to just one turnover. Karl-Anthony Towns added 15 points, 13 rebounds, three assists and a pair of blocked shots.

UK has incredible size with three seven-footers and six total players that stand at least 6'9". One of those, however, freshman Trey Lyles, missed the Georgia game and is 'doubtful' at UF due to an illness. Lyles averages 7.4 points and 5.2 rebounds per game.

Not only does John Calipari's team has the best size in America, it also has more depth than any other team in the country. Aaron Harrison leads a balanced scoring attack with a 11.0 points-per-game average. Devin Booker is the team's best shooter (50.7% FGs, 48.2 % 3PFG) and second-leading scorer (10.6 PPG).

Willie Cauley-Stein and Towns are the best of the 'bigs.' Cauley-Stein leads UK in rebounding (6.4 RPG), steals (33) and is third on the team in scoring (8.7 PPG). Towns (8.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG) has a team-best 51 blocked shots.

Florida (12-10 SU, 7-13-1 ATS) fell to 5-4 in SEC play after losing 67-61 Tuesday at Vanderbilt. UF backers took an 'L' laying 2.5 points on the road. Riley LaChance knocked down four treys and scored a team-high 15 points to lead the Commodores into the win column.

If there was a bright side for UF coming out of Music City, it was the return of Frazier's shooting stroke. After hitting at least one 3-pointer in a school-record 41 straight games, Frazier failed to connect from long distance in back-to-back contests before going to Nashville. The junior guard drained 4-of-6 from downtown against Vandy, however, finishing with a game-high 21 points, six steals and five rebounds.

Dorian Finney-Smith, UF's best overall player, fouled out with nearly nine minutes remaining. He had just four points and four rebounds. Walker was held scoreless and didn't even grab a rebound, while Hill dished out just one assist.

Frazier is UF's top scorer, averaging 13.4 PPG. Finney-Smith averages 12.8 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.

Florida has an RPI of 66, going 1-5 versus the Top 50. The Gators are 5-7 against RPI Top-100 opponents. Four of UF's losses have come by six combined points and that's not even counting three mind-boggling setbacks. In home losses to UConn and Miami, Donovan's team blew double-digit second-half leads and it allowed a 17-point second-half advantage to get away at Kansas.

UF is 8-3 SU at home, but it is just 4-6 ATS in Gainesville.

These teams met three times last year with the Gators winning each encounter, including a 61-60 win in the finals of the SEC Tournament. When these teams squared off in Gainesville, UF cruised to an 84-65 win as a nine-point 'chalk.' Finney-Smith produced 11 points, six rebounds, four assists, two steals and two blocked shots.

Florida hasn't been a home underdog since losing to Kentucky by a 74-59 count as a five-point 'dog on March 4 of 2012. The 'Cats have been road favorites five times this year, producing a 3-2 spread record.

The 'over' has been a money maker in UF games, cashing at a 14-7-1 overall clip. The Gators have seen the 'over' hit at a 9-2 clip in their last 11 outings.

The 'under' is 15-7 overall for the 'Cats, 3-2 in their five road assignments. However, they have seen the 'over' hit in three consecutive games.

The 'under' is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these long-time SEC adversaries.

As of late Friday afternoon, a few offshore shops had UK listed as a seven-point road favorite.

ESPN will have the telecast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern. The GameDay crew will be at the O-Dome all day.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Arkansas might be without its second-leading scorer for Saturday's showdown vs. Mississippi State. According to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Michael Qualls (15.1 PPG) has a sprained knee and is 'questionable.' The Bulldogs have won back-to-back games vs. LSU and at Tennessee.

-- Georgia might get its leading scorer and rebounder Marcus Thornton (13.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG) back in the lineup for Saturday's home game vs. Tennessee. According to multiple reports, Mark Fox is optimistic that Thornton will be cleared on Saturday. The plan was for him to practice a little bit on Friday. UGA has lost both games without him, getting smashed 67-50 at South Carolina last weekend.

-- Alabama's second-leading scorer Ricky Tarrant (13.1 PPG) is 'doubtful' for Saturday's game at LSU. The Tulane transfer injured his leg in a loss vs. Florida and has missed back-to-back contests. The Crimson Tide has gone 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS without Tarrant.

-- Georgia Southern is the nation's best ATS team with a 12-1-2 spread ledger. The Eagles won outright against Ga. St. as 3.5-point home 'dogs Thursday.

-- Pepperdine improved to 15-8 SU and 15-4-2 ATS with Thursday's 80-74 home win over BYU. The Waves swept the season series from the Cougars, who saw their slim hopes of an NCAA at-large bid completely destroyed in Malibu.

-- Texas A&M's Kourtney Roberson (7.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is 'questionable' for Saturday's game against Missouri due to an undisclosed injury.

-- Just an hour before tip-off at Texas Tech earlier this week, Kansas St. suspended leading scorer Marcus Foster and Malek Harris. The status of both players for Saturday's game against Texas remained a mystery as of late Friday afternoon.

-- Already down starting guard Briante Weber, VCU will most likely have to face St. Bonaventure without another key player. Treveon Graham, who averages 16.2 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, is 'doubtful' against the Bonnies. Graham left Wednesday's 72-60 win at George Mason with a sprained ankle.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Top Action

February 6, 2015


NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (21-3) at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (19-3)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: TBD

ACC powerhouses collide Saturday when No. 10 Notre Dame faces No. 4 Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

No. 10 Notre Dame is coming off of a 71-63 victory over Boston College as 12.5-point home favorites. The team has now won six of its past seven games SU, but it has struggled ATS. Notre Dame has failed to cover in two straight games and is just 3-5 ATS in its past eight games. The team has also failed to score 80+ points in each of its past three games, which is poor for their standards.

No. 4 Duke, meanwhile, is coming off of a 72-66 home victory over Georgia Tech. Duke has won five of its past six games but the team was a 16.5-point home favorite against Georgia Tech and has now failed to cover in two of its past three games.

Notre Dame won-and-covered 77-73 when it faced Duke as a 1.5-point home favorite on Jan. 28. Duke has now lost two straight games SU against Notre Dame and it has also failed to cover in three straight against the Fighting Irish. The Blue Devils have not hosted the Fighting Irish since Nov. 26, 1998, when Duke won 111-82 as 27.5-point home favorites.

Notre Dame won-and-covered in its only game as a road underdog this season, but is just 2-3 ATS (but 7-0 SU) when coming off of an ATS loss. The Blue Devils are 10-1 SU but just 5-6 ATS when playing as a home favorite. Duke is 7-2 SU when coming off of an ATS loss, but they have covered in just four of those contests.

The Fighting Irish have one of the best offenses in the country, averaging 80.8 PPG (8th in NCAA) on 52.1% shooting (2nd in NCAA). The team is also solid defensively, allowing just 64.1 PPG (121st in NCAA). Notre Dame lost 76-72 in Pittsburgh last weekend, but they picked up a 71-63 victory over Boston College on Wednesday and head into this game with some momentum.

When the Fighting Irish beat the Blue Devils in South Bend, G Jerian Grant (17.3 PPG, 6.4 APG, 1.8 SPG) had one of his best games of the season. Grant did not sit for a single minute in that game, finishing with 23 points, 12 assists and six rebounds. He also added three steals and two blocks on the defensive end. Grant is one of the toughest competitors in college basketball and he will make things difficult on the Duke guards on both ends of the floor.

F Zach Auguste (13.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG) may be the Notre Dame player with the toughest task in this one. Auguste will be matched up against C Jahlil Okafor (18.1 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) in this game, and he must hold his own. If the forward can not play well on the defensive end, it will be extremely difficult for the Fighting Irish to pull off this road upset. In the last meeting between these teams, Auguste had 14 points and six rebounds. He did, however, allow Okafor to go for 22 points and 17 rebounds.

G Pat Connaughton (13.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG) will be relied on to knock down shots in this one. He is one of the best outside shooters in college basketball (44% 3PT), and he is also a fantastic rebounder. He had 13 points and 12 rebounds against the Blue Devils on Jan. 28 and he’ll need to contribute in both ways once again on Saturday.

G Demetrius Jackson (12.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.7 SPG) was lousy against Boston College last game, scoring just three points (1-for-4 FG) in 31 minutes of action. He did, however, add 10 rebounds and four assists in the game. He’ll be relied on to reach double digits in scoring on Saturday.

Duke is another team that is extremely explosive on the offensive end, averaging 80.2 PPG (11th in NCAA) on 49.5% FG (7th in NCAA). They’re allowing 64.6 PPG (135th in NCAA) thanks to their ability to get into passing lanes (7.4 SPG, 66th in NCAA).

G Tyus Jones (11.1 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.2 RPG) has been huge for this team recently and is one of the main reasons this team comes away with so many steals (1.4 SPG). He had three steals against Georgia Tech on Wednesday and added nine points and five assists offensively. When these teams last played one another, Jones had 14 points (5-for-11 FG, 1-for-3 3PT). He was absolutely huge in Duke’s victory over Virginia on Jan. 31, and is really coming into his own as the lead guard on this team. Jones is lethal from the free throw line (88% FT), so he’ll be looking to get to the basket in order to draw contact.

G Quinn Cook (14.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.7 APG) has also been playing extremely well for Duke recently. Cook is averaging 16.0 PPG over the past four games for the Blue Devils and his ability to knock down outside shots (39% 3PT) will keep the Fighting Irish players on their heels throughout the course of this one. He had 15 points the last time these teams played and didn’t leave the court the entire game.

C Jahlil Okafor is this team’s most important player though. Okafor is the most dominant big man in college basketball and completely had his way with the Notre Dame forwards in the last meeting between these teams. Duke will do whatever they can to get him the ball in this one.

One player who could be an x-factor for the Blue Devils is F Justise Winslow (11.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Winslow had 13 points the last time these teams played and has now had 13+ points in each of the past three games. He is a fantastic two-way player and his athleticism will make things very difficult for Notre Dame on both ends of the floor. One thing that is concerning for him is free throw shooting (58% FT). His inability to convert from the charity stripe has devalued his strength of getting to the basket.

KENTUCKY WILDCATS (22-0) at FLORIDA GATORS (12-10)

Stephen C. O’Connell Center - Gainesville, FL Tip-off: Saturday, 9:00 p.m. ET Line: TBD

Once looked at as the featured game in the SEC conference season, Florida looks for a season-saving home win versus undefeated arch-rival, No. 1 Kentucky.

Billy Donovan’s Florida Gators, ranked No. 7 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll, have been one of the biggest disappointments in college basketball this season. The Gators, thought of at the time as the main challengers to John Calipari’s cast of future lottery picks in Lexington, have flopped their way to a 12-10 record (7-12-2 ATS), without defeating one top-25 team in the process.

After winning their first three SEC games, the Gators have dropped four of their last six conference contests and are a putrid 1-5 ATS during that time. Kentucky, as you well know, is money (line) in the bank this season (22-0). Covering in conference play, however, has been a different story: The Wildcats are 3-6 ATS in SEC play (11-11 ATS overall) and have failed to cover in four of their last five contests. To be fair, Kentucky has only seen three lines all season where they were favored by only single digits (Kansas, at Louisville, at Alabama) and they covered all three of those games.

Since 2010, Kentucky is 8-5 SU (6-6-1 ATS) versus Florida and 3-4 SU (4-3 ATS) in Gainesville over that same period (Calipari was hired as coach in April, 2009). Florida is coming off possibly its worst loss of the season on Tuesday, at Vanderbilt, where the Commodores snapped a seven-game losing streak and won for only the second time in conference. Kentucky is coming off an 11-point victory at Georgia on Tuesday, their 5th straight win with a margin of victory below 20 points (nine of Kentucky’s 12 non-conference wins were by 20 points or greater).

The Wildcats’ victory Tuesday was without F Trey Lyles (7.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 21.7 MPG) who has an undisclosed illness. Calipari indicated during the post-game press conference that “we don’t know” how long Lyles will be out, hinting at an extended absence.

Kentucky’s dominance in going 22-0 with 10 potential first round draft picks has been well documented. Just in case a reminder was in order, a list of stats in which Kentucky is #1 in the country: Scoring margin (22.8 PPG), block % (13.5), FG% defense (32.9%), points per-possession against (0.79), assists per-game against (7.2), assist-to-turnover ratio against (0.46 A:TO) and, of course, winning %. Every stat listed is rooted in defense, as the Wildcats have been on a historical run defending the goal this season.

Kentucky doesn’t have a poor offense by any means (73.9 PPG, 70th NCAA; 46.1% FG, 64th NCAA). Their efficiency numbers are elite (1.15 pts per-possession, 13th NCAA) and they don’t beat themselves (1.4 A:TO, 18th NCAA), but they still haven’t clicked on offense. Maybe it’s because they’re not getting enough shots at the rim (71.3% FG at-the-rim, 5th NCAA; only 33.8% shots taken at-the-rim, 231st NCAA), or maybe it’s because even in limited minutes, fouling is an issue (17.3 FPG, 248th NCAA). The Wildcats don’t shoot it from deep, but when 88% of your rotation is 6-foot-6 or taller (except G Tyler Ulis), then Calipari has the right idea when talking his kids out of the three point shot (5.9 threes/game, 215th NCAA).

The Wildcats do have one sneaky weapon at their disposal on offense: Drawing fouls, especially in SEC play (57.4 FT rate 2nd NCAA during conference play). 28.9% of Kentucky’s points in conference have come from the line, as they’ve shot a respectable 72.2% from the stripe over that period. By now, the much-famed “platoon” system from John Calipari has seemingly taken a backseat to a more normalized rotation in conference play.

Emerging from the pack to each garner over 23 MPG in conference play has been (all stats are conf. play) G Aaron Harrison (12 PPG, 2.2 threes/gm, 1.4 SPG, 29.1 MPG), G Andrew Harrison (9.6 PPG, 3.8 APG, 27.3 MPG), who had a season-high 23 points vs Georgia on Wednesday, C Willie Cauley-Stein (6.8 PPG, 6 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 27 MPG), G Devin Booker (11.6 PPG, 1.9 threes/gm on 53% from deep, 23.9 MPG), Tyler Ulis (5.8 PPG, 3.4:0.8 A:TO Ratio, 23.2 MPG). Stepping up for the injured Lyles, F Karl-Anthony Towns (8.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 19.9 MPG) had a huge game versus the Bulldogs on Tuesday with 15 points, 13 rebounds, 2 blocks in a career-high 31 minutes.

Florida’s 12-10 record, despite a roster full of talent, can be blamed on all the things they don’t do: They hoist a bunch of threes (444 threes attempted, 1st SEC) but they can’t make them with any regularity (33.6% from three, 200th NCAA). They don’t get to the line (31.7 FT rate, 305th NCAA), nor do they get second-chance points off the offensive glass (10 O-RPG in conf. play, 13th SEC). When you don’t shoot it well from deep, you’re not corralling your own misses, and you don’t make up for that by piling up points at the line, you’re going to have a mediocre offense (66 PPG, 11th SEC).

As Billy Donovan teams historically do, Florida creates offense from defense by picking your pocket (7.8 SPG, 2nd SEC, 43rd NCAA) and boasts a solid turnover margin (+2.2, 45th NCAA). That said, if you can get past the Gators’ press, there’s nobody waiting at the rim to greet you (2.9 BPG in conference play, 13th SEC). While rebounding hasn’t been a red flag for the Gators, they did get punished on the glass by Vanderbilt in Tuesday’s loss, 42-26. In fact, if the Gators win the rebounding battle in conference games, they win the game and vice versa (5-0 when outrebounding their opponent; 0-4 when getting outrebounded).

Florida’s attack is led by G Michael Frazier II (13.4 PPG, 2.4 threes on 39.6% from deep). Frazier II led the Gators with 21 points and six steals in a defeat at Vanderbilt on Tuesday, but has been wildly inconsistent scoring the ball in conference play (four games with 8 points or fewer). Six-foot-eight F Dorian Finney-Smith (12.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 threes on 39.2 from deep), a transfer from Virginia Tech, has a world of talent and versatility, but constantly finds himself coming off the bench and seems to be off the floor for long stretches (only one conf. game of 30 mpg).

Much was expected of Mickey D’s All-American G Kasey Hill (7.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) when he committed to the Gators last season. Hill seems to have bottomed out however (4.5 PPG in his last four games, 25% FG) as he’s only hit double figure scoring once in conference play.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Tips

February 6, 2015


When it comes to catching the betting public’s attention in men’s college basketball, there is nothing better than a head-to-head conference matchup between nationally ranked teams.

This Saturday afternoon’s early slate features three of these showdowns across three different major conferences. In a 12:00 p.m. (ET) tip in the Big 12, Baylor will go on the road to face the Mountaineers of West Virginia.

One of the top matchups in the ACC pits No. 10 Notre Dame against No. 4 Duke in a 1:00 p.m. start in Durham and at 2:00 p.m. the Big East takes center stage with a showdown between Georgetown and Villanova at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.

No. 19 Baylor Bears at No. 15 West Virginia Mountaineers (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: West Virginia -4

Baylor is now 3-1 both straight-up and against the spread in its last four games after beating TCU 77-57 this past Wednesday as an eight-point favorite at home. The total went OVER the closing 125-point line and it has gone OVER in six of its last eight games. The Bears have been one of the best rebounding teams in the nation this season with an average of 41.3 a game and they are holding opponents to 58 points per game on defense. Baylor is averaging 69.5 PPG and shooting 42.8 percent from the field.

The Mountaineers fell to 6-3 SU in Big 12 play with this past Tuesday’s 71-52 loss to Oklahoma as 5 ½-point road underdogs. They are now just 3-4 ATS in their last seven games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five contests. Senior guard Juwan Staten scored a team-high 15 points while pulling down nine rebounds in the losing effort to the Sooners. He remains the Mountaineers’ leading scorer with 14.8 PPG. The team is averaging 75.9 PPG, but it is hitting just 41.4 percent of its shots from the floor.

Betting Trends

-- The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record and they have covered in three of their last four games played on a Saturday. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five road games.

-- The Mountaineers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss ATS. The total has gone OVER in 11 of their last 17 home games.

-- The road team in this matchup is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings. Baylor has the slight 3-2 edge ATS and the total has gone OVER in three of the five games.

No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Duke -10

Notre Dame bounced-back from a 76-72 loss to Pittsburgh this past Saturday as a three-point road favorite with Wednesday’s tight 71-63 victory over Boston College as a heavy 12 ½-point favorite at home. The Irish have now failed to cover in five of their last eight games. Notre Dame is ranked seventh in scoring with 80.8 PPG and its 52.1 field goal percentage is second-best in the nation. Senior guard Jerian Grant and junior forward Zach Auguste are combining for 31 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.1 assists a game.

The Blue Devils needed a big second-half effort to get past Georgia Tech 72-66 this past Wednesday as 17-point home favorites. This followed a huge 69-63 victory against previously unbeaten Virginia as 5 ½-point road underdogs. They are now 3-5-1 ATS in the ACC this season. Duke is averaging 80.2 PPG and it is ranked seventh in the nation shooting the ball with a 49.5 field goal percentage. Freshman sensation Jahlil Okafor has led the way with 18.1 points and 9.3 rebounds a game.

Betting Trends

-- The Fighting Irish 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 ACC games and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven road games.

-- The Blue Devils are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games and they are 4-11-2 ATS in their last 17 conference games. The total has gone OVER in 10 of their last 11 games played at home.

-- Notre Dame is 2-0 SU and ATS in the last two meetings including a 77-73 victory on Jan. 28 as a 1 ½-point home underdog. The total has gone OVER in three of four previous meetings.

No. 24 Georgetown Hoyas at No. 7 Villanova Wildcats (FOX, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Villanova -9

Georgetown is a game off the pace in the Big East standings at 7-4 SU, but it is just 4-7 ATS. The Hoyas dropped a costly 74-71 decision against Providence this past Wednesday as 6 ½-point home favorites. Junior guard D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera led all scorers in the loss to the Friars with 21 points. He is averaging a team-high 15.8 PPG with a 39.5 shooting percentage from three-point range. Senior guard Joshua Smith is second with 11.9 PPG while leading the team in rebounds with 6.6.

The Wildcats are at the top of the standings in the Big East at 7-2 SU and they have covered in six of the nine games including a 70-52 rout of Marquette on Wednesday as 14-point favorites at home. Villanova is 8-4 ATS at home this season and the total has stayed UNDER in four of its last five games overall. Senior guard Darrun Hilliard II is the Wildcats’ leading scorer with 13.2 PPG, but junior guard Ryan Arcidiacono had the hot hand in Wednesday’s win with 18 points while going 4-for-7 from three-point range. Villanova is averaging 75 PPG and shooting 46.2 percent from the field.

Betting Trends

-- The Hoyas have failed to cover in six of their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team with a SU winning record at home. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last 12 games on the road.

-- The Wildcats are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 home games, but they have failed to cover in four of their last five games played on a Saturday. The total has stayed UNDER in 15 of their last 22 home games.

-- The home team has covered ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone 3-2-1 in the last six games. Georgetown drew first blood in this season’s series with a 78-58 romp on Jan. 19 as a four-point home underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Six of the top minor league prospects of the Atlanta Braves.......

1) Jose Peraza, 2B-- Hit .335 in 44 games in AA Southern League.

2) Lucas Sims, P-- Has allowed 257 hits in 307 IP in minors.

3) Christian Bethancourt, C-- Hit .248 in 113 big league ABs last year.

5) Ozhaino Albies, SS-- 5-9, 150 pounder hit .364 in low minors

7) Tyrell Jenkins, P-- Could've gone to Baylor to play football.

15) Shae Simmons, P-- Allowed 15 hits in 22 IP with Braves LY.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Looking at some college hoop info.....

13) Best 3-point shooting teams in country:
1) Cal-Davis 45.2% 2) Idaho 42.0% 3) Sacramento State 41.3%

Worst 3-point shooting teams in country:
351) Alcorn State 23.6% 350) Nevada 24.6% 349) Savannah State 25.7%

12) Best teams in country from foul line:
1) Ole Miss 79.9% 2) Illinois 79.7% 3) Quinnipiac 78.1%

Worst teams in country from foul line:
351) Nicholls St. 58.3% 350) Savannah St. 59.1% 349) South Carolina St. 59.2%

11) Teams with best eFG% on offense (3-pointers count as 1.5 FGs made)
1) Notre Dame 60.0% 2) Gonzaga 59.1% 3) Cal-Davis 58.9%

Teams with worst eFG% in country:
351) Grambling State 38.6% 350) Morgan State 39.1% 349) Alcorn State 39.8%

10) Teams that force turnovers on highest %age of possessions:
1) West Virginia 30.7% 2) Eastern Kentucky 27.5% 3) SF Austin 26.3%

Teams that turn the ball over the most on offense:
351) Central Arkansas 26.6%, 350) Grambling State 26.5% 349) Savannah State 26.1%

9) Teams that play fastest tempo games in country:
1) VMI 2) Coppin State 3) Neb-Omaha 4) Northwestern State

Teams that play slowest tempo games in country:
351) American 350) Virginia 349) Denver 348) Wyoming

8) Georgia Tech is 0-4 in ACC home games, but none of the four losses were by more than three points......underdogs are 8-1 vs spread in Syracuse's ACC games.

Next five notes refer to conference ratings.......
7) Fastest tempo games in the country, on average, happen in:
1) Southland 2) Southern 3) Northeast 4) Sun Belt

Slowest tempo games, on average, happen in:
32) Missouri Valley 31) WAC 30) Mountain West 29) Patriot

6) Best 3-point shooting conferences:
1) Big Sky 39.6% 2) Patriot 37.8% 3) Summit 37.2% 4) Big West 35.9%

Worst 3-point shooting conferences:
32) SWAC 30.6% 31) MEAC 31.3% 30) Sun Belt 32.4% 29) Atlantic 14 32.8%

5) Best foul shooting conferences:
1) Summit 72.8% 2) Atlantic Sun 72.3% 3) Big Sky 72.0% 4) Big South 71.9%

Worst foul shooting conferences:
32) MEAC 65.1% 31) AAC 66.0% 30) SWAC 66.5% 29) C-USA 66.7%

4) Conferences with highest percentage of close games:
1) Big East 33.3% 2) Patriot 32.7% 3) ACC 29.2% 4) WAC 28.6%

Conferences with lowest percentage of close games:
32) CAA 16.4% 31) Southland 17.2% 30) Horizon 18.2% 29) AAC 18.5%

3) Conferences with highest %age of wins by home team:
1) Big 14 (49-20) 2) Horizon (30-14) 3) Big X (32-15) 4) WAC (19-9)

Conferences with lowest %age of wins by home team:
32) Ivy (7-12) 31) American East (20-24) 30) SWAC (23-22) 29) MEAC (29-26)

2) Not sure why, but it has been 24 years since the winner at the Farmers Open golf tournament in LaJolla was won by a first-time PGA Tour winner.

1) Pelicans 116, Thunder 113-- Anthony Davis hit his first trey of season at buzzer to win it; he had 41 points. Westbrook had 48 for the Thunder; he had tied the game with three foul shots with 0:01.3 left. Davis is 3-24 for his career on the arc.