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**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2014, 12:43 AM

SBPI Rankings - 50-26

October 21, 2014

100-76 · 75-51 · 50-26 · 25-1 While we still have weeks before the 2014-2015 college basketball season tips off there is always the craving for solid analytics in any sport – perhaps the most popular is college basketball since it has 330-plus teams, driving significant alumni interest & opportunities to profit wagering.

Last season I wrapped up development & released the SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI), a comprehensive model that measures how strong each team in the country performs by grading 10 statistics on both offense & defense followed by adjusting performance based on SOS.

Listed below are my Top 100 SBPI teams of the last 12 seasons:

#50: 2007 Ohio State 388.4 [35-4] – this Buckeyes team was SBPI #3 in the 2007 season and went on to reach the championship game before the Florida Gators capped off their back to back titles beating OSU. Florida that season was just #9 in SBPI, and considering the Gators were going for back to back championships it was surprising for certain that UF won that championship game by 9 points.

#49: 2014 Wisconsin 388.9 [30-8] – the Badgers appear a lot on the list of Top 100 teams of the last 12 years which may surprise some folks – but check out these SBPI rankings starting in 2003 thru last season: 8, 2, 8, 10, 63, 10, 22, 16, 14, 15, 7, 5. The Badgers have only one bad season over 12 years which is why Bo Ryan continues to be one of the best coaches in America. Back to this team, they were SBPI #5, suggesting a #2 seed and a contender for the Final Four according to SBPI; they wound up earning that #2 seed & reaching the Final Four before losing to SBPI #8 Kentucky by just 1 point.

#48: 2012 Michigan State 389.0 [29-8] – the 2012 Spartans were SBPI #4 & did earn the #1 seed we projected they earned. However, they lost in the Sweet 16 to #4 seed / SBPI #12 Louisville by 13 points in a surprising outcome, especially when taking into account the margin of victory. That Louisville team went on to the Final Four before falling to SBPI #2 Kentucky, who went on to win the national title.

#47: 2009 Louisville 389.8 [31-6] – Ville was SBPI #7 in 2009 but earned a #1 seed rightfully so by winning not only the Big East regular season but also the Big East Tournament. In a reversal of fortunes to the above game they would go on to face SBPI #3 Michigan State in the Elite 8 & dropped a 12 point decision. The SBPI higher rated team (MSU) won the game & they would go on to lose versus SBPI #4 North Carolina in the championship game.

#46: 2005 Illinois 390.0 [37-2] – this Illini team, led by the dynamic backcourt of Dee Brown & Deron Williams, was their 2nd best over the last 12 years according to SBPI (#6 in ’05 vs. #5 in ’06). They reached the national championship game before falling to SBPI #1 North Carolina by 5 points. After finishing in the SBPI Top 13 each year from ’04-’07 the program has fallen on hard times just once finishing inside the SBPI Top 30 over the last 7 seasons (#14 in ’13).

#45: 2012 Kansas 390.0 [32-7] – this is the 3rd best Kansas team of the last 12 seasons, and all 3 have AT LEAST reached the national championship game (1-2 in championship games with only win coming with their best team [2008] – see below). These Jayhawks were SBPI #3 & lost to SBPI #2 Kentucky in the championship game.

#44: 2013 Duke 390.4 [30-6] – this version of the Blue Devils were SBPI #3 but earned a #2 seed in the tournament. They went on to reach the Elite 8 before falling to #1 seed / SBPI #1 Louisville by 22 points; as mentioned above that Pitino team went on to win the championship the following week.

#43: 2009 UCLA 391.8 [26-9] – this was clearly the last solid UCLA team checking in at SBPI #6 (from ’06 to ’09 they were SBPI ranked 6, 1, 1, 6) but received an extremely low seed & tough draw which led to an early dismissal. In the five seasons since UCLA has been ranked by the SBPI (starting in 2010) 135, 64, 47, 51 & 21 last season. Despite the SBPI #6 they only received a #6 SEED for the NCAA Tournament AND they were forced to play SBPI #8 Villanova (#3 seed) on their home court – talk about getting jobbed. They won their opener but really got beat up against Villanova falling by 20 points.

#42: 2003 Arizona 391.9 [28-4] – this is Arizona’s second best team over the last 12 seasons (2014 was their best) as they checked in at SBPI #4 & rightfully so earned a #1 seed in the tournament. They would go on to reach the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #2 Kansas by just 3 points. Kansas was a #2 seed, perhaps a line low according to SBPI, but when you reach the Elite 8 you have to expect to face great teams, and Arizona was just narrowly outdone this time out. Lute Olson would go on to reach one more Elite 8 in 2005 before stepping down following the 2007 season.

#41: 2005 Michigan State 392.2 [26-7] – this Tom Izzo team was SBPI #5 yet only earned a #5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, suggesting a bullish run was possible. Sparty did not disappoint as they reached the Final Four that season before falling to SBPI #1 North Carolina in the semifinal round; UNC would go on to win the title 2 nights later over Illinois.

#40: 2012 Kentucky 393.0 [38-2] – this version of Big Blue was SBPI #2, earned a #1 seed and went on to win the national title over SBPI #3 Kansas. The 2012 season saw the Top 3 teams in SBPI reach the Final Four, with SBPI #12 Louisville rounding out the group. It also saw 5 of the top 6 & 6 of the top 8 in SBPI reach at least the Elite 8.

#39: 2011 Pittsburgh 393.0 [28-6] – this version of the Panthers checked in at SBPI #5 & on the heels of a Big East Regular Season Championship earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Once again the Panthers would bow out early, this time in the 2nd round to the Butler Bulldogs, who as a #8 seed were in line with their SBPI #29. While this was another early flame-out for Pitt they did lose to a Butler team that would go on to their 2nd straight appearance in the national championship game only to lose once again, this time to UConn.

#38: 2011 Kentucky 393.1 [29-9] – UK was SBPI #4 in 2011 yet only earned a #4 seed, once again suggesting this was a team to watch for a potential deep run in the NCAA’s. They did not disappoint reaching the Final Four where they fell to SBPI #10 UConn, who would go on to win their 3rd national title under Jim Calhoun.

#37: 2008 West Virginia 394.2 [26-11] – this was the 3rd best WVU team over the last 12 seasons & started an impressive SBPI run by the Mountaineers since Bob Huggins took over in 2007. Their SBPI starting in 2008 thru 2012 (5 seasons) were in order: 6, 2, 2, 9, 7. This West Virginia team was SBPI #6 yet managed to only received a #7 seed from the committee which was surprising on many levels – not only the SBPI but WVU finished the Big East regular season in the 5th spot & reached the Big East Tournament semifinals before bowing out to #1 seed Georgetown. They would reach the Sweet 16 before falling by 4 points to #4 seed Xavier that was SBPI #17.

#36: 2009 Pittsburgh 396.5 [31-5] – this Panthers team finally performed well in the NCAA Tournament as a #1 seed, in line with their SBPI #5. They would go on to reach the Elite 8 versus Big East rival Villanova (SBPI #8) before dropping a 2 point decision on Scottie Reynolds’ driving floater with no time left on the clock, capping one of the best Regional Final games we have seen in the last decade plus.

#35: 2014 Louisville 396.9 [31-6] – the Cardinals of 2014 checked in at SBPI #4 yet only earned a #4 seed. They would advance to the Sweet 16 where they faced in-state rival Kentucky and the youngsters from UK, ranked SBPI #8 yet only seeded #8 beat Louisville for the 2nd time that season. Both of these teams were woefully under seeded as Kentucky went on to reach the national championship game as a #8 seed only to fall to UConn in the title game.

#34: 2005 Oklahoma State 398.3 [28-8] – the Cowboys of ’03, ’04 & ’05 finished the SBPI ranking 26, 6, 4 respectively but have yet to secure a finish higher than SBPI #26 over the last 9 seasons. The Boys reached the Sweet 16 before falling to SBPI #18 Arizona by 1 point. Arizona would go on to blow that monster lead late in their Elite 8 game vs. Illinois, matching the deepest Arizona went under Lute Olson since his 2001 team lost in the title game to Duke.

#33: 2008 North Carolina 398.6 [36-3] – this season saw 4 of the top 5 SBPI teams reach the Final Four including UNC, who checked in at SBPI #5 (lone outlier was SBPI #3 Duke). The Tar Heels of ’08 earned a #1 seed and lost in the semifinals to eventual champion SBPI #2 Kansas, losing to the better team according to SBPI.

#32: 2014 Tennessee 400.3 [24-13] – on one hand these Vols seem an outlier of sorts since they tied #99 Arizona for the most losses by any team in the Top 100; on the other hand they won their first three games of the NCAA Tournament by double digits beating Iowa by 13 in the “play in game”, taking care of #6 seed UMass by 19 in the first round followed by a 20 point hammering of Mercer in the 2nd round. Having reached the Sweet 16 they would face SBPI #16 Michigan, who was a #2 seed coming off losing in the national championship game of 2013. This game would come down to the wire with the Wolverines winning by 2 points, but the Vols covered the number just as the SBPI suggested they would.

#31: 2003 Oklahoma 404.5 [27-7] – the Sooners only Top 10 SBPI season was ’03 where they checked in at #3 under Kelvin Sampson (they did finish in the Top 33 each season from ’04 to ’09 (including another Elite 8 appearance in 2009) but since have yet to post a Top 25 finish although they have improved in each of the last four seasons topping out last year at #26). This team earned a #1 seed rightfully so and advanced to the Elite 8 before falling to #3 seed / SBPI #14 Syracuse by 16 points. That 2003 Syracuse team would go on to win the national title.

#30: 2010 Kansas 405.2 [33-3] – these Jayhawks checked in at SBPI #4, rightfully seeded on the #1 line. However, they did not see the “juggernaut” that Northern Iowa was, falling in the 2nd round to the #9 seed / SBPI #45 (this was UNI’s 2nd best team of the L12 years according to SBPI; the best was the 2006 version [’10 rating was 306.1 vs. ’06 rating was 306.4] who earned an at-large, was a 10 seed, and fell to Georgetown in the first round by just 5 points). UNI lost to Michigan State in the Sweet 16 who would go on to reach the Final Four. That Jayhawks team lost before the Sweet 16 for only the 2nd time in the last 8 years (other time being last season to Stanford).

#29: 2005 Duke 406.3 [29-7] – the Blue Devils were SBPI #3 for the 2005 season earning a #1 seed in the process. They would advance to the Sweet 16 where they would fall to SBPI #5 Michigan State in a highly entertaining game that had a 2 point margin late before MSU scored the final 10 points. That was too early a matchup of these heavyweights who both ranked inside the SBPI Top 5.

#28: 2011 Duke 407.6 [32-5] – just like team directly above them this Duke team was SBPI #3 & earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But this time although they earned that #1 seed they were shipped to the Anaheim regional and lost in the Sweet 16 to SBPI #26 Arizona in a largely ‘Zona red atmosphere. Arizona would go on to lose a 2pt game to UConn in the Elite 8; the Huskies went on to win the national title.

#27: 2014 Arizona 407.7 [33-5] – the ’14 Wildcats were nip & tuck with the Florida Gators for the SBPI #1 spot all season, settling in at #2 eventually following a late season swoon of sorts. They were rightfully awarded the #1 seed and reached the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #5 Wisconsin by 1 point. Keep in mind this team lost one of its key pieces in Brandon Ashley early in the conference season, or who knows how far they could have gone.

#26: 2008 Memphis 407.9 [38-2] – the John Calipari & Derrick Rose led ’08 Memphis team is the highest finish for any non-power conference team as that season they were SBPI #4, rightfully earning a #1 seed; they were also the first team from a non-power conference since 1998 Utah to reach the championship game, where they faced SBPI #2 Kansas. Many of us will remember this one since it was one of the most exciting championship games in recent memory as the Tigers blew a late lead and Kansas was able to win the title in OT. This team will also be remembered for having all their wins removed from NCAA records following the investigation into the eligibility of star PG Derrick Rose. Rose would bolt for the NBA & John Calipari would hang around for just one more season before leaving to coach Kentucky.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2014, 12:45 AM

SBPI Rankings - 75-51

October 21, 2014

100-76 · 75-51 · 50-26 · 25-1 While we still have weeks before the 2014-2015 college basketball season tips off there is always the craving for solid analytics in any sport – perhaps the most popular is college basketball since it has 330-plus teams, driving significant alumni interest & opportunities to profit wagering.

Last season I wrapped up development & released the SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI), a comprehensive model that measures how strong each team in the country performs by grading 10 statistics on both offense & defense followed by adjusting performance based on SOS.

Listed below are my Top 100 SBPI teams of the last 12 seasons:

#75: 2014 Ohio State 376.5 [25-10] – these Buckeyes were SBPI #6 for the 2014 season & were slotted as a #3 seed which is close to in-line with our expectations. They did bow-out to the 11th seeded Dayton Flyers in the 1st round by just 1 point, launching a UD run to the Elite 8 before they fell to SBPI #1 Florida. Dayton, SBPI #33 in 2014, should have been closer to the 8/9 game vs. the 11 seed they earned, but nevertheless this was an extremely disappointing result to Buckeyes faithful – but like Davidson vs. Wisconsin directly above, the Dayton team they lost to advanced to the Elite 8 making the loss not as bad as it appeared, especially considering it was by just 1 point.

#74: 2006 LSU 376.8 [27-9] – this was EASILY the best Tigers team of the last 12 seasons as they were ranked SBPI #3 for the 2006 season (their next best was #29 in 2005), and they reached the Final Four that season as a #4 seed – which was well under where they deserved to be seeded as you can see from first comment. They would drop a 14 point decision to SBPI #6 UCLA in the national semifinals, a disappointing finish to what was one of the best season’s in LSU men’s basketball history.

#73: 2013 Wisconsin 377.4 [23-12] – the ’13 Badgers were SBPI #7 for the 2013 season, suggesting a #2 seed was more accurate; yet they were slotted on the #5 line & lost in the 1st round to Ole Miss. Ole Miss checked in at #37 that season, suggesting the 8/9 game was more accurate for them. Nevertheless, Wisky going down by 11 in this first round game was a big surprise.

#72: 2008 Stanford 377.9 [28-8] – the Cardinal checked in at SBPI #9 for 2008, perfectly fitting into the 3 seed they earned in that year’s tournament. While they did reach the Sweet 16 and fall to the #2 seed Texas Longhorns UT was SBPI #16 that season, 7 spot below Stanford; also taking into account the Horns won that game by 20 points & that was an extremely disappointing end to Stanford’s season.

#71: 2005 Kentucky 379.9 [31-7] – the ’05 Wildcats earned a #2 seed, in-line with the SBPI of #9. UK rode this team all the way to the Elite 8 where they lost to #5 seed Michigan State; however, that Spartans team was SBPI #5, bettering the Wildcats by 4 spots & showing just how under seeded that MSU team was (same seed as SBPI rank). That MSU team would go on to reach the Final Four before falling to SBPI #1 North Carolina, who would go on to win the national title.

#70: 2011 San Diego State 379.3 [34-3] – this was the Aztecs highest rated team of the L12 seasons checking in at SBPI #8 (their 2nd best was the 2014 version that checked in at #12), rightfully earning a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They reached the Sweet 16 before falling to #3 seed UConn, who at SBPI #10 that season was just behind SDST. As we know the Huskies went on to win the national title so no fault for this Aztecs loss.

#69: 2011 Kansas 379.4 [35-3] – one of many Jayhawks teams to find a spot on the Top 100 this version earned a #1 seed, which was 1 line too high as this KU team was #7 in the SBPI for 2011. They reached the Elite 8 before bowing out to upstart VCU, who checked in at SBPI #46 that season which was perfectly in-line with their 11 seed. The Rams went on to the Final Four before losing to SBPI #29 Butler, who fell to UConn in the championship game.

#68: 2003 Pittsburgh 381.4 [28-5] – the ’03 Panthers were SBPI #5, falling in-line with the #2 seed they earned in the Big Dance. However it was another “early” flameout for a good Jamie Dixon Panthers team losing in the Sweet 16 to #3 seed Marquette. Seed wise the loss does not appear bad, but seeing the SBPI had Marquette #33 that season, it was the first of many disappointing ends to Panther seasons in the years to come.

#67: 2008 Pittsburgh 382.2 [27-10] – these Panthers were #8 in the SBPI for 2008, but were placed as a #4 seed versus the #2-3 seed they probably deserved. Nevertheless they went on to lose to #5 seed Michigan State in the 2nd round, who was #25 in SBPI – the worst Tom Izzo team of the last 7 seasons. Sure you can minimize this loss some because of the coaching factor, but with so many Pitt teams falling before they “should have” this was just another example. From 2006-2011 Pitt’s SBPI ratings in order were: 7, 7, 8, 5, 20, 5 – FIVE teams ranked in the Top 8 yet not once did they reach the Final Four, and only once even reached the Elite 8 (2009 loss to Villanova).

#66: 2014 Duke 382.6 [26-9] – amazingly Duke has 9 teams in the Top 100 of the last 12 seasons, this version being their “worst” of the nine (Duke teams that did not make the Top 100 were 2012 who were SBPI #10, 2006 who were SBPI #11 and 2003 who were SBPI #7). Seven of the nine Duke teams on the list were ranked SBPI #3 or better that season with the only two outliers this team checking in at #6 & 2007 version checking in at #5. Back to this team – since it was so recent we all recall their shocking first round loss to SBPI #135 Mercer last season, the 2nd worst loss according to SBPI by Top 100 teams (may seem crazy but the “worst” team in SBPI to beat a Top 100 team was #169 Kentucky as a #8 seed beating #9 seed Villanova in 2007).

#65: 2005 Wisconsin 383.1 [25-9] – this Badgers team was very under seeded as a #6 based on an SBPI ranking of #8 that season, suggesting closer to a #2 seed. The Badgers played to that #8 ranking reaching the Elite 8 before falling to #1 seed & SBPI #1 North Carolina by just 3 points. The Tar Heels would go on to win the 2005 national championship.

#64: 2009 Connecticut 383.1 [31-5] – these Huskies were SBPI #10 but earned a #1 seed & reached the Final Four. They would go on to face SBPI #3 Michigan State in Detroit, the combination of which was too much for the Huskies to overcome as a pair of Big East teams (Villanova) bowed out in the semifinals.

#63: 2006 Texas 383.3 [30-7] – this Horns team led by LaMarcus Aldridge was #2 in SBPI for the 2006 season & reached the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #3 LSU. This was Texas’ best SBPI team of the last 12 seasons with four other versions (’03, ’04, ’10, ’11) checking in at #6 or better.

#62: 2009 Memphis 383.4 [33-4] – this is the 2nd best Memphis team & 2nd best Mid-Major season according to SBPI over the last 12 seasons as this final John Calipari Tigers squad was SBPI #9, slotting them right where they were seeded as a #2. They reached the Sweet 16 before falling to SBPI #11 Missouri. Since Calipari has left and Pastner has taken over this program, here are the Tigers’ SBPI rank each season, starting in 2010: 60, 116, 38, 64, and 25. Not good.

#61: 2013 Syracuse 383.6 [30-10] – these Orange were SBPI #6 but slipped much further than that on the seed lines checking in with a #4 – but it did not matter as they reached the Final Four, eventually falling to SBPI #10 Michigan by 5 points. What is odd about Jim Boeheim’s teams is they rarely perform at a high level in the SBPI: for example, outside the last three years where they finished #5 in ’12, #6 in ’13 & #15 in ’14 they only finished in the Top 15 once since 2003 – and that was in 2003 when they finished #14 & Carmelo Anthony led the Orange to their only title under Boeheim.

#60: 2007 Duke 384.3 [22-11] – this version of the Blue Devils was extremely under seeded according to SBPI as they checked in at #5 overall (1-2 line) but were placed as a #6 seed, most likely due to the double digit losses they suffered during the regular season. And once again, like the Duke team listed above, they fell in the opening round to #11 seed/ SBPI #52 VCU by 2 points. This continued the “theme” of Duke’s worst two teams over the last eight seasons according to SBPI both losing in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament – granted both were huge upsets but it’s worth pointing out.

#59: 2013 Michigan State 384.5 [27-9] – the ’13 Spartans were SBPI #5 but fell to a #3 seed, approximately 1 line below where SBPI slotted them. They reached the Sweet 16 where they fell to SBPI #3 Duke in a tough matchup of Top 5 SBPI teams that early in the tournament. That Duke team went on to reach the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #1 Louisville, who went on to capture the national title. That Midwest region was certainly too tough featuring THREE of the TOP FIVE SBPI teams of 2013, along with coaching stalwarts Izzo, Pitino & Krzyzewski.

#58: 2004 North Carolina 384.5 [19-11] – the ’04 Tar Heels started an impressive 6 year run for UNC in the SBPI besides the 2006 version; starting in ’04 their SBPI ranks were 3, 1, 224, 2, 5, 4 (they have failed to break the Top 11 since the ’09 team). This team posted just an 18-10 record heading into the NCAA Tournament, which likely dropped their seed to the #6 line versus the #1 line they “earned” according to SBPI. While it’s true this team lost in the 2nd round they did so against Texas, who was #4 in the SBPI that season but only earned a #3 seed. That game was a matchup of two Top 4 SBPI teams, came way too early, and seeing how it played out as a 3pt final, was sad it occurred in just the 2nd round.

#57: 2009 Villanova 384.8 [30-8] – Jay Wright’s 2009 team, the first Nova team to reach the Final Four since their 1985 title run, checked in at #8 in the SBPI, close enough to the #3 seed they were slotted in that season. They went on to lose to SBPI #4 North Carolina in the Final Four, which was not surprising to the SBPI. Those Tar Heels went on to easily win the national title 2 nights later.

#56: 2007 Villanova 384.9 [22-11] – this Nova team checked in SBPI #4 despite their 22-11 record, which clearly slid their seed down to the #9 they received. In what is clearly the biggest surprise loss of any team in the Top 100 list these Wildcats lost to the ‘Cats of Kentucky (SBPI #169 that season!) by 9 points in the opening 8/9 game. That game was a matchup we likely should never have seen as Kentucky had no business being in the NCAA Tournament (EASILY the lowest SBPI team to receive an at-large bid), while Villanova’s numbers suggested they deserved a better seed than the #9 seed they received (although the outcome of that game may suggest something entirely different). That result meant the SBPI #4 & #5 teams in 2007 both bowed out in the 1st round (Duke #5 mentioned above).

#55: 2010 Texas A&M 385.4 [24-10] – this was the best Aggies team of the last 12 seasons checking in at SBPI #5 (their 2nd best was SBPI #18’s 2008 team) but perhaps because they are Texas A&M they were woefully under seeded as a #5. They reached the Round of 32 before running into #2 seed & SBPI #6 Purdue where they lost a tight one by 2 points. Tough break for the Aggies meeting Purdue that early as according to SBPI both teams were #2 seeds.

#54: 2008 Marquette 385.6 [25-10] – this was the best Buzz Williams team according to SBPI, although they posted five straight Top 20 finishes from ’08-’12. This year Marquette was #7 in SBPI but despite that only received a #6 seed – just one spot above their overall SBPI rating! They went on to lose in the 2nd round to SBPI #9 Stanford, who earned a 3 seed rightfully so but Marquette had no business playing them so early. Seeding appears to have cost Marquette here as they fell by just 1 point to a team two spots behind them in SBPI.

#53: 2011 Texas 386.2 [28-8] – the Horns were SBPI #6 in 2011 yet received a #4 seed, 2 lines below where SBPI projected them. They reached the Round of 32 where they fell to #5 seed Arizona (#26 SBPI) so it’s tough to complain for the Horns. But keep in mind that was a 1 point game and could have gone either way.

#52: 2013 Ohio State 387.5 [29-8] – the ’13 Buckeyes were SBPI #4 & earned a #2 seed reaching the Elite 8 before falling to Wichita State by 4 points. That Shockers team was one of the best mid-majors of the last 12 seasons checking in at SBPI #12 in 2013, well above the #9 seed they received; SBPI had them as a 3-4 seed, so their 4 point win over the Buckeyes was not a complete “shocker”.

#51: 2005 Florida 387.7 [25-9] – these Gators were SBPI #7 but only seeded as a #4, about 2 spots below where SBPI had them ranked. They went on to reach the 2nd round before facing SBPI #2 Villanova, who earned a #5 seed also well below their SBPI rating. This matchup happened far too early for both schools but Villanova came out on top, thus the Gators lost to the SBPI better team. The Gators would avenge this loss in the following season’s Elite 8 while the 2005 Villanova team went on to face SBPI #1 North Carolina in the Sweet 16. After losing star forward Curtis Sumpter in the Florida game Nova came up 1 point short against UNC on a controversial travelling call in the final seconds. The Syracuse region that season had four of the top eight SBPI teams (#1 UNC, #2 Villanova, #7 Florida, #8 Wisconsin).

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2014, 12:46 AM

SBPI Rankings - 100-76

October 8, 2014

100-76 · 75-51 · 50-26 · 25-1 While we still have weeks before the 2014-2015 college basketball season tips off there is always the craving for solid analytics in any sport – perhaps the most popular is college basketball since it has 330-plus teams, driving significant alumni interest & opportunities to profit wagering.

Last season I wrapped up development & released the SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI), a comprehensive model that measures how strong each team in the country performs by grading 10 statistics on both offense & defense followed by adjusting performance based on SOS.

Listed below are my Top 100 SBPI teams of the last 12 seasons:

#100: 2011 North Carolina 369.7 [29-8] – as a #2 seed UNC lost reached the Elite 8 before falling to #4 seed Kentucky. However, UK was SBPI #4 while UNC was SBPI #11 so they were beat by the better team according to SBPI. It would also seem UK was under seeded by 3 levels while UNC was seeded one level too high.

#99: 2006 Arizona 370.1 [20-13] – as a #8 seed they lost in the 2nd round to #1 seed Villanova by just 4 points in a game that took place on Villanova’s home court. Nova rated SBPI #1 while Arizona was SBPI #4 showing the injustice to Arizona in not only seed (they were the 4th best team in country during the 2005-2006 season yet only earned a #8 seed in NCAA tournament) but also sending them across country to face the top team according to SBPI on its home floor. We saw a similar scenario play out with #43 2009 UCLA – see below.

#98: 2008 Louisville 370.2 [27-9] – as a #3 seed Ville lost in the Elite 8 to #1 seed North Carolina. The Cardinals were SBPI #12 that season while UNC was SBPI #5 so the Cardinals were beat by the better team according to our ratings & NCAA Tournament seeds seemed inline.

#97: 2014 Virginia 370.3 [30-7] – the Cavaliers earned a #1 seed & lost in the Sweet 16 to #4 seed Michigan State by 2 points in a tight affair. UVA rated SBPI #11 while MSU was SBPI #15 – suggesting very little difference between these teams as Virginia appeared to be closer to a 3 seed vs. the 1 seed they received from winning both the ACC regular season & tournament titles. While the Cavs lost to a lower rated SBPI squad it would seem the experience of Spartans Head Coach Tom Izzo & his team vs. the inexperience of the Virginia HC & team was a key variable in deciding that outcome.

#96: 2009 Marquette 370.5 [25-10] – as a #6 seed Marquette lost in the 2nd round to #3 seed Missouri by just 4 points. Marquette was SBPI #13 – suggesting Marquette was under seeded by about 3 lines – while Mizzou was SBPI #11, in line with their seed. The game played out just as close with the higher rated Tigers winning a tightly contested affair.

#95: 2011 UConn 370.6 [32-9] – the Huskies rolled through the tournament as a #3 seed eventually winning the championship. They were rated SBPI #10 that season & took down SBPI #4 Kentucky & #8 San Diego State on their way to their last title under legend Jim Calhoun.

#94: 2004 Oklahoma State 370.7 [34-4] – as a #2 seed the Pokes reached the Final Four before being knocked out by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets by just 2 points. OSU was SBPI #6 while GT was SBPI #9, thus the tight affair we saw in the national semifinals was not a surprise.

#93: 2010 Villanova 370.8 [25-8] – Nova, as a #2 seed, lost a shocker in the 2nd round to the St. Mary’s Gaels, who were rated SBPI #63, which is the 3rd lowest rated team any Top 100 squad lost to. Villanova was SBPI #8 that season, falling in-line with their seed – however, they limped into the NCAA Tournament & it was not a complete shocker they lost to the Gaels.

#92: 2007 Pittsburgh 371.2 [29-8] – the 3rd seeded Panthers lost in the Sweet 16 to the 2nd seeded UCLA Bruins. UCLA rated SBPI #1 in 2007 while Pitt was SBPI #8 meaning according to both seed lines & SBPI the expected result occurred here, although this game occurred 1 round earlier than SBPI suggested.

#91: 2011 West Virginia 371.3 [21-12] – WVU was seeded #5 & lost to #4 seed Kentucky in the Round of 32. Amazingly SBPI had UK #4 in the country, equal to their seed while the Mountaineers checked in at SBPI #9 suggesting this was far too early a meeting between a pair of Top 9 SBPI teams – the Elite 8 would have been more “accurate”. That UK team would reach the Final Four before dropping a 1pt heartbreaker to the eventual national champion UConn.

#90: 2004 Wake Forest 371.7 [21-10] – as a #4 seed the Deacons lost to #1 seed St. Joseph’s by just 4 points in the Sweet 16. WF was rated SBPI #5 while SJU was SBPI #10 suggesting SJU was likely over- seeded by 1-2 lines while Wake was equally under-seeded by 1-2 lines, leading to this very exciting matchup.

#89: 2003 Texas 371.8 [26-7] – the Longhorns were a #1 seed and advanced to the Final Four before losing to Carmelo Anthony’s Syracuse team that was a #3 seed (went on to win the championship). UT was SBPI #6 while Syracuse was SBPI #14 meaning both teams were very close to the correct seed – which really did not have an impact here anyway since Texas lost in the Final Four. That was the first championship for Syracuse under long time Head Coach Jim Boeheim, and the last through 2013-2014.

#88: 2007 Clemson 371.9 [25-11] – the Tigers of 2007 are the only Top 100 SBPI team that failed to reach the NCAA Tournament. These Tigers instead went to the NIT where they advanced to the Championship game only to fall to West Virginia by 5 at MSG. Using the SBPI would have been profitable betting on Clemson through the NIT.

#87: 2014 Pittsburgh 372.0 [26-10] – last season’s Pitt team did not earn much respect from the committee perhaps rightfully so lacking many big name wins (went 1-6 vs. the ACC’s best teams) which landed them a 9 seed, just 1 spot ahead of their SBPI #10 rating. The Panthers ran into #1 seed Florida in the Round of 32 & were dispatched rather easily further confirming their struggles vs. upper echelon teams. UF was SBPI #1 for the 2013-2014 season so they did in fact lose to a much higher rated team – but probably deserved a better seed themselves.

#86: 2010 Xavier 372.4 [26-9] – as a #6 seed X advanced to the Sweet 16 before losing by 5 points to the 5th seeded Kansas State Wildcats. Xavier was SBPI #7 suggesting they were well under-seeded, while K-State checked in at SBPI #3 meaning Xavier did in fact lose to the better team according to SBPI in a matchup that should have probably occurred in the Elite 8 vs. Sweet 16.

#85: 2010 Purdue 372.5 [29-6] – despite rating just below Xavier in the SBPI the 2010 Boilermakers earned a #4 seed, two spots ahead of X most likely driven by the perceived difference between the Big Ten vs. Atlantic Ten. Purdue wound up losing in the Sweet 16 (like Xavier) in blowout fashion to #1 seed & SBPI #1 Duke. Check below to find out just how good that 2010 Duke team rated in the SBPI.

#84: 2014 Villanova 372.6 [29-5] – the second Wildcats team in the Top 100 also bowed out in the Round of 32, this time to eventual champion UConn. Amazingly this is the 5th time in Jay Wright’s tenure his Wildcats lost to the eventual national champion in the NCAA Tournament (2005 Sweet 16 vs. UNC, 2006 Elite 8 vs. Florida, 2008 Sweet 16 vs. Kansas, 2009 Final Four vs. UNC, 2014 Round of 32 vs. UConn). This time around Villanova was rated SBPI #9 while UConn checked in at SBPI #23, meaning once again the Wildcats lost to a much lower rated team although UConn was under seeded by some 3-4 seed lines.

#83: 2014 Kentucky 373.5 [29-11] – the 8th seeded UK Wildcats, starting 5 freshmen, advanced to the national championship game before falling to 7th seeded UConn. UK was SBPI #8, which was amazingly equal to their seed – meaning they were woefully under-seeded by some 5-6 spots (should have fallen on 2-3 line) – so their deep run in the tournament, led by Head Coach John Calipari, came as no surprise to us.

#82: 2009 Washington 373.6 [26-9] – the 4th seeded Huskies fell to #5 seed Purdue by just 2 points in a tightly contested Round of 32 game. Washington was SBPI #12 during the 2009 season while the Boilermakers were SBPI #16 suggesting these teams should in fact have been involved in this exact type of game: 4 seed vs. 5 seed in a tight Round of 32 matchup.

#81: 2012 Syracuse 373.6 [34-3] – the Orange were a #1 seed & lost to #2 seed Ohio State in the Elite 8. According to the SBPI Syracuse was #5 while Ohio State was #1 that season suggesting the Orange lost to the best team in the country. OSU did go on to lose in the Final Four to SBPI #3 Kansas by 2 points in another tightly contested affair.

#80: 2008 Tennessee 373.8 [31-5] – the 2nd seeded Vols lost in the Sweet 16 to 3rd seeded Louisville in a matchup featuring SBPI #11 & #12 respectively. Tennessee was probably seeded a line too high at #2 however it likely would not have mattered much as they lost by 19 points to the Cardinals (6th worst loss to end season of a Top 100 SBPI team), once again showing how much of an impact experienced coaching & teams can have over the inexperienced (and worth noting Tennessee picked a bad time to play their worst game of the season).

#79: 2013 Arizona 373.8 [27-8] – the Wildcats were woefully under seeded as a #6 in the 2013 NCAA Tournament (SBPI had them #8 thus suggesting a 2-3 seed was more accurate) & thus fell early, in the Sweet 16 to SBPI #4 Ohio State by just 3 points. These Wildcats could have advanced deeper in the Big Dance with proper seeding, but did lose to a higher rated SBPI team in the Sweet 16.

#78: 2009 Missouri 374.8 [31-7] – these Tigers were the highest rated Mizzou team of the last 12 seasons (11th best of 2009) and not coincidentally advanced further in the NCAA Tournament than any other Missouri team during this time span, falling to #1 seed UConn in the Elite 8. UConn was also rated a slot higher in SBPI as the 10th best team of 2009, thus the Tigers did lose to the “better” team.

#77: 2004 Texas 375.9 [27-9] – these Longhorns were a #3 seed but the SBPI had them as the 4th best team of ‘04, meaning they were under seeded by 1-2 lines. They lost in the Sweet 16 to #7 seed Xavier, a team that was even more under seeded as the Muskateers checked in at 13th overall that season.

#76: 2008 Wisconsin 376.4 [31-5] – the Badgers were properly seeded on the 3 line as SBPI #10 in 2008, but unfortunately ran into Stephen Curry led Davidson in the Sweet 16. Davidson’s best team was this one which was ranked #23 that season (their 2nd best team of the last 12 years was the 2007 team that checked in at #84) showing their #10 seed was well under their true performance which suggested closer to a #6 seed. Davidson would go on to lose in the Elite 8 to SBPI #2 Kansas by just 2 points, and those Jayhawks went on to win the championship one week later. All that means this loss by Wisconsin was not a bad one at all.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2014, 12:48 AM

Five Likely Tourney Teams

November 9, 2014

College Basketball Season is about to begin and I couldn't be more excited. I am going to focus on 5 teams that didn't make the NCAA Tournament last year but will this year!

1) Minnesota: This team won the NIT Tourney last year with 25 wins and will be contenders in the tough Big Ten conference. This team will be dangerous. After there first game against Louisville they should go 12-1 before heading to the meat of their conference schedule. The Gophers return four Senior starters led by the backcourt of Andre Hollins and DeAndre Mathieu and twin towers of Maurice Walker and Elliott Eliason both 6'11". They added depth this year with two nice recruits in guard Nate Mason and forward Josh Martin. This team will be a 4/6 seed by Tourney Time. Keep an eye on them.

2) Arkansas: Another team that went to the NIT. This year they will get 25 victories and will be a threat to win the SEC after Kentucky this year. They have all but one returning starter led by guard Ky Madden. They will also get immediate benefits from two five-star recruits with guard Anton Beard and power forward Trey Thompson. They go 10/11 deep but this time have a better collection of players that will make them a difficult out. This team will be a 5/7 seed this year come tourney time.

3) Utah: This is probably one of the most fundamental sound teams in the nation. They lost in the first round of the NIT last year, but with a returning lineup that is led by Delon Wright, who can be a NBA prospect if he can improve his jump shot, will get this team to 25 wins. What I like most with this club is their new recruit in Top 10 prospect of Brekott Chapman. This lefty can shoot and has great skills inside. He will be a matchup nightmare. Add the toughness in defender Jordan Loveridge and an improved center Dallin Bachynski, this Utes team will be a four-seed come tourney time.

4) Maryland: Now this one is more of a long shot. The Terps failed to make any postseason tournament and with that a major overhaul followed. Three starters Nick Faust, Charles Mitchell, and Seth Allen who combined for over 50% of their offense, left the team and transferred to other schools. What was left was second team All-American forward Dez Wells to figure out how to make things better for Maryland who are newcomers to the Big 10 conference. The three players that left were also the reason why they were not winning. Combined they had more turnovers than assists and there were attitude problems for the rest of the team . Coach Turgeon got three heralded recruits, two of them five-stars. Shooting guards Melo Trimble and Dion Wiley will give the Terps a much needed perimeter game. Look for Maryland to sneak in as an eight-seed this year.

5) SMU: this team was snubbed last year from going to the Dance. HOF Coach Larry Brown did a great job with this unheralded Mustang team. But 27 wins was not enough. They return their great inside-outside combination of guard Nic Moore and power forward Markus Kennedy and an attitude and bitter taste in their mouth to march into the NCAA Tourney. They beefed up their schedule a bit so this should help even if they don't reach the 27-win plateau. They will be a six-seed come tourney time.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2014, 12:49 AM

Donovan: UF unworthy of high ranking

November 13, 2014

GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Florida coach Billy Donovan doesn't share the same, lofty opinion of his team as the pollsters.

Asked whether the Gators should be ranked No. 7, Donovan shook his head and said, ''No, no, not even remotely close.''

Of course, Donovan expressed a similar sentiment about last year's team, just before Florida won 30 consecutive games, went undefeated in Southeastern Conference play and advanced to the Final Four for the fourth time in his 19-year tenure.

''And I was right,'' Donovan said. ''We were totally dysfunctional. Now, we evolved into a team and hopefully we can again.''

Florida gets its first chance to move in that direction Friday night in the season opener against William & Mary.

The Gators will be without center Chris Walker, who was suspended the first two games of the regular season for violating team rules. They also will be without forward Alex Murphy, who transferred from Duke in the middle of last season and must sit out the fall semester under NCAA rules. Guards DeVon Walker (knee) and Brandone Francis (academics) are expected to miss the entire season.

Donovan still has plenty of returning talent - point guard Kasey Hill, sharp-shooter Michael Frazier II and versatile forward Dorian Finney-Smith lead the way - but a totally different makeup from a year ago.

Last season's team relied on defense, with guard Scottie Wilbekin forcing tough shots on the perimeter and center Patric Young doing the same in the lane. Both graduated, along with fellow defensive-minded starters Casey Prather and Will Yeguete.

The guys left behind don't have the same rim-protecting prowess, at least not through weeks of practice, an intrasquad game, a closed scrimmage against 15th-ranked VCU and an exhibition against Division II Barry.

According to Donovan, the Gators allowed 82 points in those three games, which included 1.15 points per possession, and gave up 48 percent shooting from behind the 3-point line.

''We're nowhere near where we need to be defensively,'' Donovan said. ''Just to put it in perspective, last year we gave up 59 (points a game). We've got a long, long, long way to go. Whether or not we can get there, time will tell.''

If players had any thoughts about picking up where they left off in April, when the season ended with a disappointing 63-53 loss to eventual national champion Connecticut in the Final Four, Donovan quickly stamped those out with constant conversations about the team's defensive problems.

Frazier said the Gators have taken ''major strides on the defensive end of the floor'' since beating Barry 79-70 last week, pointing to improvements in communication and discipline.

''We've got a lot of talent. We're scoring points. But I think, myself included, we have to focus more on the defense end,'' Frazier said. ''We understand there are a lot of things to get better at, and right now, all we're focused on is just getting better every day, not about the future, not worrying about the past, just staying in the moment, focusing on what we can control.''

A big challenge comes Monday against Miami.

''Guys from last year know what a really good defensive team looks like, and we're not quite there,'' Donovan said. ''The expectations, to me, in a lot of ways - and I think our guys understand this - have been given to them based on what's happened in the past.''

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2014, 12:50 AM

GT, Georgia to open with rivalry game

November 13, 2014

ATLANTA (AP) - A Georgia Tech team that returns only one starter and a more experienced Georgia team will meet in the season opener.

Scheduling conflicts made Friday night the only choice for the annual state rivalry game usually held in December or January.

Georgia coach Mark Fox says he doesn't mind opening against Georgia Tech but prefers to have the Bulldogs play their first game of the season at home. Georgia Tech coach Brian Gregory says he can't let the pressure of the rivalry game interfere with his evaluation of a revamped roster.

Guard Marcus Georges-Hunt is the Yellow Jackets' only returning starter.

Georgia is trying to build off a strong finish last year. The Bulldogs tied Kentucky for second place in the Southeastern Conference.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2014, 12:53 AM

Year of the team in college hoops

November 12, 2014

The 2013-14 college basketball season was known as the year of the freshman. With the likes of one-and-doners like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon, it lived up to the billing, too.

This season, the stars aren't shining so bright and it is teams that are on the marquee instead: Kentucky's 12-deep roster, Arizona's loaded squad and the experienced Badgers of Wisconsin.

Year of the team doesn't exactly have the same ring to it, but it's more to the essence of what college basketball is about.

Just look at Kansas. The Jayhawks, ranked No. 5 in The Associated Press preseason poll, lost two lottery picks and may be even better this season.

''This is a team like that in that there's not a first, second or third pick right now,'' Kansas coach Bill Self said. ''I mean, I'm not saying somebody couldn't become that eventually, but right now there's not. But we've got a whole bunch of good players and I'm excited about that because we do have good basketball players.''

The team with the highest number of good players, at least on paper, is preseason No. 1 Kentucky.

The Wildcats have another batch of potential first-round NBA picks in John Calipari's latest recruiting class and, in a twist, have many of their star players back from a team that played for a national championship. They are so deep that Calipari is trying a platoon system.

''I told the guys in the locker room (that) they could have beaten some NBA teams tonight, there's no question in my mind,'' Georgetown College coach Scott Briggs said after a 121-52 exhibition loss to the Wildcats.

Calipari quickly shot that notion down, but Kentucky will certainly be good.

So will Arizona. Coach Sean Miller may have his best team yet, which is saying something for a team that's been within seconds of the Final Four twice in three seasons. Wisconsin made it to the Final Four last season and has nearly everyone back, including center Frank Kaminsky. Duke's loaded, too, adding a strong recruiting class headed by preseason All-American Jahlil Okafor.

But it's not just about who has the best talent. Chemistry is a big part of which teams make deep March runs.

Kentucky was the preseason No. 1 last year, too, but fell out of the rankings before pulling it altogether in the NCAA tournament. Connecticut wasn't exactly a favorite last season, yet won the title - just like it did in 2011.

With that in mind, maybe the team under the confetti canons in Indianapolis will be one like Michigan State, Gonzaga, Louisville or, yes, UConn.

''I just keep telling our team no championship teams are here in November,'' Arizona senior point guard T.J. McConnell said. ''We can't predict the future. It only matters in March.''

Predicting this season's star players could be tough, too, though there are some quality choices.

Kaminsky led the Badgers to the Final Four, is a nightmare matchup as a 7-footer who can shoot and is a preseason All-American. North Carolina point guard Marcus Paige was perhaps college basketball's best go-to player last season. Kentucky has returning stars like big-shot Aaron Harrison, his twin Aaron and athletic 7-footer Willie Cauley-Stein.

The freshmen class might not be quite as sparkly as last season's, but there's definitely talent.

Okafor was the third freshman preseason All-American in five years and could make the Blue Devils quickly forget the loss of Parker to the NBA. Athletic Stanley Johnson could do the same at Arizona, which lost one-and-done forward Aaron Gordon.

Big man Cliff Alexander will be a handful at Kansas and Karl-Anthony Towns might be the most talented player on Kentucky's roster this season.

''He's a skilled big player,'' Calipari said of Towns. ''If he gets it around the basket, he just has a knack for getting it in.''

The conference with the best group of teams will likely be the powerful ACC.

Last season, the ACC picked up Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. Louisville will be a part of the conference this season, giving it four Hall of Fame coaches and grinder of a schedule for its teams.

''Based on past successes, this may be the strongest collection of basketball programs in history,'' ACC Commissioner John Swofford said. ''I think historically it certainly falls into that category. Obviously, we need (what happens) on the court to live up to that.''

It all begins on Friday.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-14-2014, 05:33 PM

NCAABK Power Poll

Conference Rankings (Top 10)
1) ACC
2) Big 12
3) Big Ten
4) Pac-12
5) SEC
6) American
7) Atlantic 10
8) Big East
9) West Coast
10) Mountain West

Projected Final Four
Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Wisconsin

Player of the Year Accolades
Sam Dekker, Wisconsin - He'll have to rise above his own teammate, center Frank Kaminsky, but will be the best player in this year's Big Ten and can set himself apart with his versatility following last year's NCAA Tournament coming out party. The former McDonald's All-American is by no means a secret, but he hasn't been a household name. That should change this season.

First Team VI All-Americans
F- Sam Dekker, Wisconsin
F- Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
C- Jahlil Okafor, Duke
G- Marcus Paige, North Carolina
G- Marcus Foster, Kansas State

Second Team VI All-Americans
F- Stanley Johnson, Arizona
F- Georges Niang, Iowa State
C- Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin
G- Delon Wright, Utah
G- Tyler Haws, BYU

Third Team VI All-Americans
F- LaDontae Henton, Providence
F- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Arizona
C- Josh Scott, Colorado
G- Fred VanVleet, Wichita State
G- Aaron Harrison, Kentucky

COLLEGE BASKETBALL PRESEASON RANKINGS

Preseason Rank Team 2013-14 Record Pre-2014 NCAA Tournament rank

1 Kentucky (29-11 SU, 19-16-3 ATS) NR

2 Duke (26-9 SU, 18-16 ATS) 8

3 Wisconsin (30-8 SU, 20-16-2 ATS) 12

4 Arizona (33-5 SU, 21-16 ATS) 5

5 Kansas (25-10 SU, 16-18-1 ATS) 13

6 Florida (36-3 SU, 18-14-4 ATS) 1

7 Louisville (31-6 SU, 20-15 ATS) 3

8 North Carolina (24-10 SU, 16-18 ATS) 24

9 Virginia (30-7 SU, 21-11-1 ATS) 4

10 Gonzaga (29-7 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) NR

11 Texas (24-11 SU, 14-18 ATS) NR

12 Wichita State (35-1 SU, 25-7-1 ATS) 2

13 Iowa State (28-8 SU, 18-16 ATS) 10

14 Villanova (29-5 SU, 22-10 ATS) 7

15 VCU (26-9 SU, 18-15 ATS) NR

16 San Diego State (31-5 SU, 20-13 ATS) 6

17 UConn (32-8 SU, 23-15 ATS) 19

18 SMU (27-10 SU, 20-13 ATS) NR

19 Ohio State (25-10 SU, 15-19 ATS) 23

20 Utah (21-12 SU, 19-8-1 ATS) NR

21 Nebraska (19-13 SU, 20-11 ATS) NR

22 Oklahoma (23-10 SU, 19-12 ATS) 21

23 Michigan State (29-9 SU, 20-15-1 ATS) 11

24 Colorado (23-12 SU, 18-16 ATS) NR

25 Illinois (20-15 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) NR

Dropped out of Top 25: Memphis, SMU, Nebraska

On the Radar: Kansas State, Providence, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State, Memphis, Harvard, Iowa, Baylor, Arizona State, West Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Syracuse, George Washington, Dayton, Cincinnati, UCLA, St. John's, St. Joseph's, Saint Louis, Creighton, Stanford, Xavier, California, Tennessee, NC State, UTEP, Arkansas, BYU, Florida State.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-15-2014, 02:20 AM

Preseason Top 40

November 14, 2014

Now, the fun really begins!

The college basketball season swings into action this weekend, abd to get a bit better prepared for the unfolding drama, we present our TGS Preseason Top 40. Hang on for the ride.

1-WISCONSIN...We have known for a long while that Bo Ryan can coach (after all, he was our TGS College Coach of the Year last season). Now he has the sort of material up and down his roster that he has not had in past years. The bigs are not plodders anymore, with 7-0 Frank Kaminsky one of the unique weapons in the country. Ryan can thus spread the floor more effectively than ever because all of his players can drive. Moving PF Nigel Hayes into the starting lineup also allows deadeye Sam Dekker to move to his more natural "3" position, which should make the offense really click. The new-look Badgers are more athletic and versatile than past Ryan teams. Plus extreme motivation after a bitter, last-second Final Four loss vs. Kentucky provides useful, season-long motivation. The Big Ten might also be a tick down, especially with Michigan and Michigan State doing some reloading, Indiana having trouble gaining traction, and Nebraska and Minnesota both newbies to contending status.

2-KENTUCKY...It has become obligatory for forecasters to place Kentucky near the top of the polls every year. John Caliapri's rotating rosters, however, don't always mesh; witness two years ago, when the Wildcats were starting to wobble even before C Nerlens Noel went out with an injured knee late in the season. But they also have reached the Final Four in three of the past four campaigns with different casts. Now, there is a bit more familiar look to the new UK roster than a year ago with the perimeter weapon Harrison twins, plus frontliners Alex Poythress and Willie Cauley-Stein all resisting to jump early to the NBA as did last year's teammates Julius Randle and James Young. This year's new beast is 7-1 frosh C Karl Towns, Jr., who leads another star-studded class of diaper dandies. Calipari has plenty of depth, though it could be a challenge to get the rotations right (as was the case two years ago). There also might be more depth in this season's SEC, though perhaps not one main challenger to the Cats, as was Florida (now graduation-depleted) last season.

3-ARIZONA...Again, this is an almost obligatory pick this season, but for good reason, as Sean Miller has constructed a conveyor belt of talent into Tucson. Though last year's frosh superstar Aaron Gordon lasted only a year in the desert before bolting for the NBA and the Orlando Magic, and departed G Nick Johnson made plenty of big shots the past couple of years for the Cats, don't feel sorry for Miller, as 6-6, 225-lb. frosh Stanley Johnson from Santa Ana, Ca. powerhouse Mater Dei, will be the next big thing at the McKale Center. Late last season, we also saw indicators that then-frosh 6-7 F Rondae Hollis-Jefferson could emerge as a dominant force. Heady former Duquesne transfer PG T.J. McConnell is still available to provide proper service. Arizona is clearly the team to beat in a Pac-12 that might be a tick down overall from a year ago.

4-WICHITA STATE...The bad news for the Shockers was how their dream season a year ago was wrecked by Kentucky in a bitter Third Round (Round of 32) Big Dance loss in St. Louis last March. The good news is that most everybody save PF Cleanthony Early returns from that one-loss team led by Gs Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, who helped Wichita get to the Final Four the year before. Gregg Marshall's troops continue to play team defense as well as any outfit in the country, and the Missouri Valley has lacked a real challenger to the Shockers since Creighton left for the "new" Big East. A better draw on Selection Sunday could set up a very deep March run for Wichita.

5-VIRGINIA...Neck-and-neck with Wisconsin last season as the best-coached team in the country was UVa. And any doubters about HC Tony Bennett can just look at what happened at Washington State after Bennett left the Palouse in 2009. The Cavs were a-bucket-against-Michigan State-away from a berth in the Elite Eight opposite UConn last March, and seven of Bennett's top nine players return. Though replacing G Joe Harris and workhorse PF Akil Mitchell will be a challenge, the backcourt should still humm with PG London Perrantes and SG Malcolm Brogdon, the latter also an 89% FT shooter and likely to emerge as a All-American candidate this season. Pedigree frosh recruits SG B.J. Stith (dad Bryant is Uva's all-time leading scorer) and ultra-athletic 6-8 Isaiah Wilkins (Dominique's son) will make an impact this term, too.

6-NORTH CAROLINA...It is a luxury to be able to use more than one effective point guard, as UConn proved last season and the Phoenix Suns continue to prove in the NBA. The ability to move the ball upcourt negates pressure tactics, and as long as it doesn't prove a defensive liability can be a very big plus. Roy Williams has such guards at his disposal, and will likely be using some combination of jr. Marcus Paige and either soph Nate Britt or frosh Joel Berry (Florida's Mr. Basketball the past three seasons) as much as possible. There is plenty of established bulk with 6-9 types Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson to hold down the frontcourt, and 6-6 SF J.K. Tokoto is likely the highlight-reel player of the ACC now that K.J. McDaniels has departed from Clemson. We love the look of Roy's roster, although we're going to keep a close watch on developments at Chapel Hill related to the academic fraud probe within the athletic department, and Williams' program at the epicenter. Stay tuned.

7-GONZAGA...We haven't rated the Zags this high since the Adam Morrison years. And we know the Bulldogs have never made it past the Sweet 16 on Mark Few's watch, either. But the Zags appear better built to compete with the nation's elite this season thanks to a couple of explosive transfers, former Kentucky F Kyle Wiltjer (a native of the region, from Portland) and ex-Southern Cal G David Wesley. Along with holdover Gs Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell, Jr. (whose tenures in Spokane seem to extend back to the Dan Monson era) and rugged 7-1 C Przemek Karnowski, who had double-doubles in both NCAA Tourney games last March, they complete a versatile and potent-looking lineup. We and WCC scouts are also intrigued by 6-10 frosh lefty Domantas Sabonis, son of the former great Arvydas Sabonis and reportedly already a polished offensive weapon, and unsung recruit 6-3 Silas Melson, a Portland-area product who flew under the radar of many scouts. Watch these guys.

8-DUKE...The Blue Devils have gone out in their first Big Dance game in two of the past three years (Lehigh in 2012, Mercer last March), so there has been a bit more spittle than usual spewing from Coach K in preseason workouts. ACC scouts warned at an early point a year ago that Duke's 2013-14 edition was one of the poorest-defending Coach K teams, especially on the perimeter, where it could not deny dribble penetration. Last year's star frosh Jabari Parker was not exactly a shutdown defender, either. So the departures of Parker and backcourt mate Rodney Hood to the NBA might not hurt Duke as much as many imagine. We'll see if this year's star frosh, PG Tyus Jones and C Jahlil Okafor, can help on the stop end (we know they will be forces on the other end of the court). Lots of options for Coach K, but lots of questions, too, with just one senior and three frosh in the projected rotation. Watch and see if the "D" looks better in early tests vs. Michigan State and likely Stanford (in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic at Brooklyn) within the first two weeks of the season.

9-KANSAS...Forgive us if we seem a bit reluctant regarding Kansas, which only on occasion resembled the unbeatable powerhouse it was supposed to be last season when frosh stars Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid (at least before his late-season injury) were the headliners. Now Bill Self has a new group of high-level recruits led by PG Devonte Graham, 6-7 SF Kelly Oubre, and 6-8 C Cliff Alexander. There is obviously an overflow of raw talent on hand at "The Phog," but Self is going to be counting heavily upon freshmen and some inexperienced sophs across the board.

10-TEXAS...Rick Barnes got off of the hot seat last season when the Longhorns made it back to the Big Dance, and won 24 games overall. Now they're excited about hoops again in Austin, more so with the arrival of 6-11 man-child frosh Myles Turner, who, along with 6-8 Jonathan Holmes and 6-9 Cameron Ridley, gives Texas one of the most imposing frontlines in the country. But having so many bigs might also impede what Barnes can do on the stop end, as he'll be hard-pressed to go man-to-man with so many lumbering pieces on the floor. Also, bad news in October when promising soph G Martez Walker left the school after a pair of arrests, which puts more pressure on Gs Javan Felix and Isaiah Taylor. But Barnes has plenty of pieces at his disposal.

11-LOUISVILLE...We realize we are starting Rick Pitino outside of our top ten, and understand the risk of doing so, as Pitino is always a threat to have his 'Ville side primed for a deep run in March. A couple of key cogs from recent Card success, G Russ Smith and swingman Luke Hancock, however, took a lot of big shots for the Cards the past couple of years and are not easily replaced. The offense will again flow from the perimeter, where PG Chris Jones will be asked to score a bit more, as soph SG Terry Rozier progresses from his frosh season a year ago. Pitino will also be campaigning in his third different league in the last three seasons this term, as the Cards begin their first trip around the ACC. There will be adjustments both ways, but we wonder if all the changes from the past few years might negatively impact the 'Ville.

12-MICHIGAN STATE...We don't ever want to overlook a team coached by Tom Izzo, though there is reason to wonder if the Spartans might slip a bit this term with G Gary Harris and glue-guy 6-10 Adreian Payne now in the NBA. But never underestimate an Izzo team, and this edition is also capable of improving as the season progresses and threatening another Izzo Final Four run. Keeping explosive but injury-prone 6-6 sr. swingman Branden Dawson out of the trainer's room will be an imperative. A key contributor could be 6-3 Cleveland State transfer G Bryn Forbes, though his minutes could be limited in November by a hand injury. But we're going to like writing about the Spartans this season just so we can mention an all-time "All-Name" first-teamer...frosh G Lourawls Nairn, Jr!

13-VILLANOVA...Nowadays in the Big East, a contending team can get away with a smaller lineup, and it should not be a terrible bother to Jay Wright's Villanova to have only one projected starter over 6-7. Overall, four starters are back plus a couple of Top-100 recruits to likely make the Cats the team to beat in the Big East once more. Frosh G Phil Booth adds perimeter firepower for Nova, which already boasted of established forces such as jr. PG Ryan Arcidiacono and sr. Darrun Hilliard in the backcourt.

14-MINNESOTA...We can't wait to see the opening game father-vs.-son battle between papa Rick Pitino's Louisville and son Richard's Minnesota. Might the son have the edge? Maybe so, as the Gophers return three senior starters, led by G Andre Hollins, from last season's NIT winner. Another G, soph PG Deandre Mathieu, was a very pleasant surprise for the young Pitino last season and could threaten for All-Big Ten honors in 2014-15. Redshirt seniors 6-11 Elliottt Eliason and 6-10 Maurice Walker will need to continue to improve for the Gophers to justify our confidence. But the path to the top half of the Big Ten might also be a bit more clear than usual this season, too.

15-UCLA...For a while we weren't sure where the Bruins would be playing or practicing this season after a Westwood flood from a major broken water main damaged Pauley Pavilion and ruined the basketball floor, though a new hardwood is going to be ready in time for the season to begin. With that problem solved, we're the only ones who seem to be forecasting UCLA this high, and we wonder why. There is a certain knee-jerk aspect to most of the preseason publications which appear to have dismissed the Bruins because of their three players (Jordan Adams, Zach LaVine, and Kyle Anderson) who went in the first round of last Junes' NBA Draft. But those in the know in the Pac realize that the likes of 6-4 sr. G Norman Powell, 6-2 soph G Bryce Alford, and 6-9 C Tony Parker are more than capable of stepping into the breach after the departure of the NBA draftees. And a heralded recruiting class includes 6-9 frosh Kevin Looney and 7-0 Thomas Welsh, while the touted 6-5 Isaac Hamilton, once the intriguing subject of a tug-o-war between USC and UTEP, is now at Westwood. The Bruins also fired a warning flare in early November with their runaway win over UNLV in a preseason scrimmage. Coach Steve Alford has proven he can push the right buttons in the past.

16-LA TECH...Our first "Sleeper" in the rankings, the Bulldogs (along with UTEP) look to be the class of Conference USA with a top-notch backcourt leading the way. Senior PG Raheem Appleby was slowed by an ankle injury last winter but appears fully healthy for his final college season, and backcourt mates Kenneth "Speedy" Smith and Alex Hamilton combine for a very combative trio, with Murray State transfer Erik McCree expected to provide the dagger thrower from the perimeter that this offense needs. All blended together by up-and-coming HC Michael White, who reportedly took himself out of the mix for the opening at Tennessee because he wanted to finish what he has built at Ruston (and also perhaps because he saw how bare the cupboard was at Knoxville). Most regional observers also expect to see White (once a guard at Ole Miss) coaching somewhere in the SEC much sooner than later.

17-SAN DIEGO STATE...Steve Fisher has been able to keep the Aztecs in the national focus in recent years even as he transitioned from Kawhi Leonard to Jamaal Franklin to Xavier Thames as the star players of recent SDSU teams. There might not be one featured performer in that mold in 2014-15, but Fisher's brew has been quite potent in recent years and the formula remains unchanged...plenty of athletes able to run the floor, and roles well-defined on the attack end. Expect 6-7 sr. J.J. O'Brien to step into a more pronounced scoring role. The new player to watch might be 6-8 frosh Malik Pope, the Aztecs' first-ever 5-star recruit (though slowed by a leg injury at the moment).

18-UCONN...Yes, these guys won the whole thing last season, which was completely unexpected before the tourney began, though by the end we were believers in the magic HC Kevin Ollie had achieved. The bigger trick was convincing Ollie to stay put in Storrs and reject overtures from everywhere, including the NBA, though many believe that is where Ollie will eventually end up. Whatever, he proceeds this season without a couple of key cogs in the Big Dance run, especially PG Shabazz Napier, who pulled the strings all of the way through the Final Four, and workhorse F DeAndre Daniels. Stepping into the featured roles this season will be sr. G Ryan Boatright and 7-0 soph C Amida Brimah, who had matured into a force by last March. Immediate help also comes from 6-4 NC State transfer Rodney Purvis, Boatright's new running mate in the backcourt.

19-IOWA STATE...Fred Hoiberg has made it quite a homecoming for himself in Ames, as the Cyclones have emerged as a constant threat in the Big 12 on his watch. Hoiberg has won with different lineups and different styles over the past few years, but must proceed this term minus instant-offense components G DeAndre Kane and F Melvin Ejim. Filling that role this season could be explosive UNLV (and previously Southern Cal) transfer Bryce Dejean-Jones, who reminded of World B. Free in his shot selection with the Runnin' Rebels and will bring an edge (maybe too sharp?) to the Cyclones. A 6-9 juco F and onetime Marquette recruit, Jameel McKay, is another potential new contributor. Hoiberg does have the luxury of a three-year starting C, Georges Niang, and a top-notch PG, soph Monte Morris. If the new pieces fit, Hoiberg could have ISU primed for another deep run in March.

20-GEORGIA STATE...There is more to talk about in Atlanta than the Falcons, Braves, Hawks, or the slaw dogs and frosted oranges at The Varsity. How about Georgia State? And we don't just mean lovely AD Cheryl Levick. Panther basketball looms as one of the nation's top sleepers this season and ready to finish the job in the Sun Belt after losing a late lead and then the game in OT in the conference tourney final vs. ULL last March that knocked GSU into the NIT instead. Expect the Panthers to get to the Dance and cause some trouble with what might be a top 15 backcourt led by HC Ron Hunter's son R.J. and former Kentucky transfer Ryan Harrow, now augmented by Louisville transfer Kevin Ware, who appears mostly recovered from the gruesome broken leg suffered in the 2013 Final Four. Another former transfer, 6-10 ex-Southern Cal C Curtis Washington, is one of the main forces on the blocks in the Belt.

The next 20...

21-NEBRASKA...Tim Miles' Cornhuskers now know what the NCAA Tourney feels like and will be ready to make a deeper run this March with the wing tandem of 6-7 Shavin Shields and 6-6 Terran Petteway still in the Lincoln mix. More offense for the Huskers could be provided by touted 6-6 RS frosh Nick Fuller.

22-SMU...Larry Brown's Mustangs felt jilted at their Big Dance snub last March and proceeded to get to the NIT final. This season, the Ponies get to the Dance. Xavier transfer Justin Martin should team well with holdover star PG Nic Moore.

23-VCU..."Shaka Ball" is becoming less of a mystery to A-10 opposition, but the Rams return most of their key components from another Big Dance qualifier last term. One problem-and it's a big one for a basketball team-the Rams couldn't shoot well last season, a flaw that exposed them in their Big Dance 2nd-round loss to Stephen F. Austin.

24-COLORADO...Tad Boyle has become one of our favorite coaches. The Buffs are well-balanced and play defense, and are loaded on the frontline featuring rangy big Josh Scott. If Boyle figures out his backcourt rotation, then the Buffs can advance further than another one-and-done in the Dance.

25-NC STATE...The Wolfpack was a bit of a disappointment the past two years, though it managed to squeeze into the Dance on both occasions and win a play-in game last March before blowing a late lead against Saint Louis in the second round. ACC sources believe NCS might function better without the ball in the hands of departed gunner F T.J. Warren so much. Mark Gottfried, an ex-SEC coach, now has an ex-SEC backcourt, too, with ex-Bama G Trevor Lacey joining ex-LSU G Ralston Turner on the perimeter.

26-HARVARD...Tommy Amaker seems more than happy to stay at Harvard until alma mater Duke might come calling whenever Coach K retires. Won a game in March for the second straight year last season and likely to get back to the Dance again with key starters Wesley Saunders and Siyani Chambers still in the Crimson mix.

27-FLORIDA...It might surprise many that Billy Donovan has not made the Dance every season with Florida, in fact failing to do so for a couple of years immediately after the Gators' last NCAA title in 2007. So a regression from last year's Final Four team that lost all five of its starters would not be a big shocker.

28-OHIO STATE...The Buckeyes lost a lot from last season, including blood-and-guts G Aaron Craft and top scorer LaQuinton Ross. Thad Matta will need 6-9 Temple transfer Anthony Lee to make an immediate impact to help OSU contend in the Big Ten.

29-SYRACUSE...After topping the polls for a while last season, the 'Cuse faded badly down the stretch as the new environs of the ACC seemed to confuse the Orange, and Jim Boeheim began to look a bit bored (but he always looks that way, doesn't he?), especially after the one-and-done in the Dance, courtesy Dayton. 'Cuse has lost the heart-and-soul of last year's team with departures of Tyler Ennis, C.J. Fair, and Jerami Grant.

30-UTEP...Tim Floyd can still match any coach in an X-and-O battle and now has some legit firepower in what might be his best UTEP side. Swingmen Julian Washburn and Vince Hunter provide matchup nightmares for foes. Also watch all-name frosh G Omega Harris.

31-MICHIGAN...We respect John Beilein too much to ever overlook the Wolverines. But Michigan had heavy personnel losses, including G Nik Stauskas, F Glenn Robinson III, and PF Mitch McGary (who missed much of last season with a back injury). How much of a scoring burden 6-7 frosh Kameron Chatman can handle will help determine how deep the Wolverines proceed in March.

32-OKLAHOMA...Lon Kruger is up to his old tricks in Norman, with his Sooners now a Big Dance regular. They are also regularly one-and-done in March. The most-prized OU recruit since Blake Griffin, 6-7 frosh Dante Buford, is expected to make immediate contributions.

33-ILLINOIS...John Groce might be ready to forge a breakthrough in his third season at Champaign-Urbana, with all five starters (including a loaded backcourt) back in the fold. Top 50 prep, 6-7 Memphis product PF Leron Black, is considered the Illini's best out-of-state recruit since Deron Williams over a decade ago.

34-FLORIDA STATE...Leonard Hamilton's teams always play nasty defense. This bunch of Seminoles is also bigger than most of Hamilton's past FSU teams. Now if RS frosh Xavier Rathan-Mayes can run the point, Hamilton could get back to the Dance.

35-UTAH...Larry Krystowiak has quickly built the Utes into a contender in the Pac-12 by adding key pieces to the puzzle every season; this year, it's 7-foot Austrian C Jakob Poelti, 6-7 juco (and formerly Saint Mary's) F Chris Ryees, and 6-8 frosh PF Brekkott Chapman, Utah's prep Player of the Year.

36-MEMPHIS...We still need more convincing about Josh Pastner as a big-time coach. Heavy losses in the backcourt for the Tigers were partially offset by the transfer (and immediate eligibility) of ex-Vanderbilt G Kedren Johnson, who should come in handy. Pastner, however, finally did win a Big Dance game last March.

37-LSU...A nice sleeper in the SEC, even with workhorse PF Johnny O'Bryant having departed. This year's player to watch is juco transfer PG Josh Gray, who scored almost 35 ppg last season with Odessa (Tex.) JC.

38-ARKANSAS...Here's another SEC sleeper we would watch. Remember how Mike Anderson's Razorbacks completely flummoxed Kentucky last season, in Lexington? Lots of experience on the roster now complemented by 6-4 frosh G Nick Babb and 6-7 West Virginia transfer F Keaton Miles.

39-NOTRE DAME...The Irish were wrecked by a combination of injuries, ineligibilities, and unfamiliarity with their new ACC neighborhood last season. But Mike Brey began to reassemble the pieces with a foreign tour in the summer, and the return of star G Jerian Grant after academic problems to reunite with deadeye 6-5 swingman Pat Connaughton should help the Irish regain their swagger.

40-WESTERN MICHIGAN...The defending MAC champs return four starters thanks to the NCAA granting a sixth year of eligibility to star G David Brown (19.1 ppg), last year's MAC scoring champ. Coach Steve Hawkins has been a consistent winner in Kalamazoo and happily signed a six-year contract extension after last season's Big Dance berth. The Broncos will have to replace All-MAC C Shayne Whittington, though 6-10 frosh C Drake Lamont, Florida's Class 5A Player of the Year last year for American Heritage High, could be the answer in the paint.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-16-2014, 12:19 PM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Holy Cross vs. Harvard
The Crimson take on the Crusaders today at TD Garden in the Coaches vs. Cancer tourney and come into the contest with a 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 neutral site games. Harvard is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Crimson favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-11). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 16

Game 709-710: Buffalo at Kentucky (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 57.950; Kentucky 78.768
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 21
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 30 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+30 1/2)

Game 711-712: Princeton at George Mason (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 52.012; George Mason 55.230
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 3
Vegas Line: George Mason by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (-1 1/2)

Game 713-714: Boston College vs. Massachusetts (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 57.038; Massachusetts 60.458
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+5 1/2)

Game 715-716: Portland at San Jose State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 54.963; San Jose State 47.372
Dunkel Line: Portland by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-5 1/2)

Game 717-718: Charlotte at Elon (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 52.873; Elon 54.883
Dunkel Line: Elon by 2
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 4
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+4)

Game 719-720: Utah State at Illinois State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 57.876; Illinois State 59.923
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (+9 1/2)

Game 721-722: Fordham at Penn State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 51.000; Penn State 65.839
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 15
Vegas Line: Penn State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-12 1/2)

Game 723-724: Valparaiso at Missouri (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 53.086; Missouri 60.038
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 7
Vegas Line: Missouri by 5
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-5)

Game 725-726: Pacific at UC-Irvine (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 54.170; UC-Irvine 61.933
Dunkel Line: UC-Irvine by 8
Vegas Line: UC-Irvine by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (+13 1/2)

Game 727-728: George Washington at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 729-730: CS-Northridge at Arizona (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 52.913; Arizona 80.209
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 25 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-25 1/2)

Game 731-732: CS-Fullerton at New Mexico (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 48.755; New Mexico 72.586
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 24
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 14
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-14)

Game 733-734: Mercer at Seton Hall (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 59.550; Seton Hall 67.676
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 8
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mercer (+12 1/2)

Game 735-736: Southern Utah at Miami (OH) (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 36.298; Miami (OH) 55.657
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (-14 1/2)

Game 737-738: Samford at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 43.655; Pittsburgh 71.040
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 29 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Samford (+29 1/2)

Game 739-740: Chattanooga at Wisconsin (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 44.496; Wisconsin 79.888
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 35 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 29 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-29 1/2)

Game 741-742: Northern Arizona at Toledo (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 48.211; Toledo 59.683
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Toledo by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+14 1/2)

Game 743-744: IUPUI at Purdue (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 37.442; Purdue 66.925
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 29 1/2
Vegas Line: Purdue by 23 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-23 1/2)

Game 745-746: Northern Colorado at Wyoming (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 44.882; Wyoming 59.448
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 12
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-12)

Game 747-748: South Dakota at Stanford (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 47.397; Stanford 63.705
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 19
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota (+19)

Game 749-750: Idaho State at Denver (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 43.525; Denver 61.144
Dunkel Line: Denver by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 15
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-15)

Game 761-762: Hampton at Syracuse (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hampton 48.521; Syracuse 73.315
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 25
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 21
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-21)

Game 763-764: Alabama State at Arkansas (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama State 44.370; Arkansas 63.209
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 19
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 21
Dunkel Pick: Alabama State (+21)

Game 765-766: Chicago State at Creighton (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago State 43.652; Creighton 70.602
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 27
Vegas Line: Creighton by 23
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-23)

Game 767-768: Robert Morris at North Carolina (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Robert Morris 51.452; North Carolina 69.753
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Robert Morris (+20 1/2)

Game 769-770: Sam Houston State at UNLV (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sam Houston State 51.075; UNLV 64.242
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 13
Vegas Line: UNLV by 10
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-10)

Game 771-772: Kennesaw State at California (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kennesaw State 44.072; California 64.059
Dunkel Line: California by 20
Vegas Line: California by 23
Dunkel Pick: Kennesaw State (+23)

Game 773-774: Alcorn State at Texas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alcorn State 44.034; Texas 69.493
Dunkel Line: Texas by 25 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 28 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alcorn State (+28 1/2)

Game 775-776: Coastal Carolina at UCLA (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 52.270; UCLA 77.445
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 25
Vegas Line: UCLA by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-16 1/2)

Game 777-778: Boston U vs. Northeastern (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 54.576; Northeastern 50.523
Dunkel Line: Boston U by 4
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston U (+4 1/2)

Game 779-780: Holy Cross vs. Harvard (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Holy Cross 49.992; Harvard 65.224
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 11
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-11)

**StarDust Bum** · 11-16-2014, 12:21 PM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Sunday, November 16

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BUFFALO (1 - 0) at KENTUCKY (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PRINCETON (1 - 0) at GEORGE MASON (0 - 1) - 11/16/2014, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PRINCETON is 82-57 ATS (+19.3 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
PRINCETON is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
PRINCETON is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
GEORGE MASON is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGE MASON is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGE MASON is 1-0 against the spread versus PRINCETON over the last 3 seasons
PRINCETON is 1-0 straight up against GEORGE MASON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MASSACHUSETTS (1 - 0) vs. BOSTON COLLEGE (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 118-85 ATS (+24.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 1-0 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
MASSACHUSETTS is 1-0 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PORTLAND (1 - 0) at SAN JOSE ST (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PORTLAND is 54-82 ATS (-36.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PORTLAND is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 48-25 ATS (+20.5 Units) in November games since 1997.
PORTLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN JOSE ST is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 1-0 straight up against SAN JOSE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (0 - 0) at ELON (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 1-0 against the spread versus ELON over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 1-0 straight up against ELON over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH ST (1 - 0) at ILLINOIS ST (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH ST is 1-0 against the spread versus ILLINOIS ST over the last 3 seasons
UTAH ST is 1-0 straight up against ILLINOIS ST over the last 3 seasons

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FORDHAM (1 - 0) at PENN ST (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FORDHAM is 183-229 ATS (-68.9 Units) in all games since 1997.
FORDHAM is 183-229 ATS (-68.9 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
FORDHAM is 140-182 ATS (-60.2 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
FORDHAM is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in road games since 1997.
FORDHAM is 83-112 ATS (-40.2 Units) in road lined games since 1997.
FORDHAM is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in November games since 1997.
FORDHAM is 59-83 ATS (-32.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PENN ST is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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VALPARAISO (1 - 0) at MISSOURI (0 - 1) - 11/16/2014, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PACIFIC (1 - 0) at UC-IRVINE (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PACIFIC is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points since 1997.
PACIFIC is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UC-IRVINE is 63-90 ATS (-36.0 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
UC-IRVINE is 27-44 ATS (-21.4 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PACIFIC is 3-1 against the spread versus UC-IRVINE over the last 3 seasons
PACIFIC is 3-1 straight up against UC-IRVINE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGE WASHINGTON (1 - 0) at RUTGERS (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
RUTGERS is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGE WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
RUTGERS is 1-1 straight up against GEORGE WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CS-NORTHRIDGE (0 - 1) at ARIZONA (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CS-NORTHRIDGE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in home games when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CS-FULLERTON (0 - 1) at NEW MEXICO (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 176-140 ATS (+22.0 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
NEW MEXICO is 106-65 ATS (+34.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MERCER (1 - 0) at SETON HALL (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MERCER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MERCER is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as an underdog since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MERCER is 1-0 straight up against SETON HALL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SOUTHERN UTAH (0 - 1) at MIAMI OHIO (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN UTAH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
SOUTHERN UTAH is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAMFORD (0 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAMFORD is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in all home games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UT-CHATTANOOGA (1 - 0) at WISCONSIN (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UT-CHATTANOOGA is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) in November games since 1997.
UT-CHATTANOOGA is 60-85 ATS (-33.5 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
UT-CHATTANOOGA is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
WISCONSIN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N ARIZONA (0 - 1) at TOLEDO (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N ARIZONA is 44-81 ATS (-45.1 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IUPUI (0 - 1) at PURDUE (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IUPUI is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
IUPUI is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
IUPUI is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
IUPUI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
IUPUI is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
IUPUI is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N COLORADO (1 - 0) at WYOMING (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WYOMING is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
WYOMING is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
N COLORADO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WYOMING is 2-0 against the spread versus N COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
WYOMING is 2-0 straight up against N COLORADO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S DAKOTA (0 - 1) at STANFORD (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IDAHO ST (0 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IDAHO ST is 149-193 ATS (-63.3 Units) in all games since 1997.
IDAHO ST is 149-193 ATS (-63.3 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
IDAHO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAMPTON (0 - 1) at SYRACUSE (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 4:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALABAMA ST (1 - 0) at ARKANSAS (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ALABAMA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO ST (0 - 1) at CREIGHTON (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CREIGHTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CREIGHTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO ST over the last 3 seasons
CREIGHTON is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ROBERT MORRIS (0 - 1) at N CAROLINA (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 69-45 ATS (+19.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAM HOUSTON ST (1 - 0) at UNLV (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) when playing with one or less days rest since 1997.
UNLV is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENNESAW ST (0 - 1) at CALIFORNIA (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALCORN ST (0 - 1) at TEXAS (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COASTAL CAROLINA (1 - 0) at UCLA (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCLA is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCLA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BOSTON U (0 - 0) vs. NORTHEASTERN (0 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHEASTERN is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NORTHEASTERN is 1-1 straight up against BOSTON U over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOLY CROSS (0 - 0) vs. HARVARD (1 - 0) - 11/16/2014, 5:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HARVARD is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOLY CROSS is 1-0 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 2-0 straight up against HOLY CROSS over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 11-16-2014, 12:22 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, November 16

For first week or two, we'll give you what info we have to give on the most interesting games of the day. In my opinion, its way too early to be picking games. These teams had scrimmages but results aren't released, so hard to know whats up until we watch some real games.

Princeton has three starters back from 21-9 team; they beat Rider 64-59 in opener Friday, after being down 9 with 14:01 left. Tigers took 24 3's, only 19 2's- they took 20 FTs, Rider 4. George Mason lost its opener to Ivy doormat Cornell 68-60, making 7-27 from arc, only 11-21 from foul line. Now they have to play one of the Ivy's better teams.

UMass was 39-52 from foul line in 95-87 win over Siena Friday; Saints shot 52% inside arc, had 18 offensive boards. UMass has two starters back from 24-9 team that lost in first round of NCAAs LY. BC was 1-19 from arc in 58-50 win over New Hampshire in its opener; Eagles have a new coach and only two starters back from LY's 8-24 team.

Portland has four starters back from LY's 15-16 team that went 7-11 in a tough WCC; Pilots made 7-11 from arc in LY's 86-69 win over San Jose (led 37-33 at half). Spartans also has four starters back from 7-24 team that was over its head (1-17) in its first year in Mountain West. Four of San Jose's six newcomers are freshmen; progress will be slow.

Charlotte outscored Elon 36-18 in last 10:00 of LY's 83-69 win, after the Phoenix had led by 12 early on. Elon lost four starters from 18-14 team; they played nine guys 17+ minutes in 64-58 win over FAU in Friday's home opener. Charlotte has four starters back from LY's 17-14 team that went 7-9 in C-USA; this is their season opener.

Utah State has five new starters this year, but beat Weber State 72-61 in its opener, thanks to +13 (20-7) turnover ratio. Aggies were just 14-24 on foul line. Illinois State is playing opener here; they've got four starters back from 18-16 team that went 9-9 in MVC. Redbirds starteed playing better LY when they played four guards and pressed more.

Missouri lost its opener to UMKC, horrible way for Anderson's regime to start in Columbia; Tigers were 5-23 from arc, 8-16 on line- only seven guys played 12+ minutes. Valparaiso has four starters back from 18-18 team; they made 10-18 from arc, 28-43 from line in home opening 90-76 over East Tennessee State. Valpo is a lot better than UMKC.

Fullerton shot 38% from floor, forced only eight turnovers in 89-72 loss at Santa Clara Friday; Titans have three starters back from LY's 11-20 team that was 6-10 in Big West. New Mexico was up 42-20 at half in its opening 79-55 win over Idaho State; Lobos lost three starters from LY's 27-7 team that laid an egg in first round of NCAA tourney.

Mercer lost eight seniors, all five starters from LY's 27-9 team that upset Duke in first round of NCAA's LY; they're also moving to the Southern Conference this year, not necessarily a move up. Seton Hall debuts its top 10 recruiting class in this game, after losing four starters from 17-17 team that went 8-12 in first year of the new Big East.

Southern Utah has all five starters back from 2-27 team that went 1-19 in Big Sky; they were only down 8 at half at K-State Friday, then lost by 30 as Wildcats made 10-18 from arc. Miami OH is playing opener; they have three starters back from 13-18 team that went 8-10 in MAC- they added three JC kids, three freshman and another transfer this year.

Northern Arizona got waxed 93-60 in its opener at Xavier, which made 29 of 35 (83%) inside arc; Lumberjacks have four starters back from LYs 15-17 team that went 12-8 in Big Sky. Toledo is playing opener in this game; they've got four starters back from 27-7 team that went to NIT after going 14-4 in MAC- they think they're going to NCAAs.

Northern Colorado lost last three games with Wyoming by 19-9-13; LY, they lost 72-59 in Laramie, after leading by 12 late in first half. UNC has three starters back from LY's 18-14 team. Wyoming is playing its opener here; they have four starters back from LY's 18-15 team that went 9-9 in MWC, despite being riddled with injuries.

Idaho State won 42 games the last five years; they were down 42-20 in opening 79-55 loss at New Mexico Friday. Bengals hope some redshirts that are now eligible will help this year. Denver runs Princeton offense that is difficult to prep for in 36 hours; Pioneers have four starters back from 16-15 team that went 8-6 in its first year in Summit.

UNLV is freshman-laden team that is lost when senior PG Doolin is off floor; they survived decent Morehead State team Friday, but forced only six turnovers in 60-59 win. Rebels have skilled scorers in Vaughn, Wood; not many other scoring options. Sam Houston State has four starters back from 24-11 team that went 13-5 in Southland.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-16-2014, 12:23 PM

NCAAB

Sunday, November 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:00 PM
MERCER vs. SETON HALL
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seton Hall's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Seton Hall's last 13 games at home

12:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. KENTUCKY
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games on the road
Kentucky is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kentucky's last 6 games

1:00 PM
SAMFORD vs. PITTSBURGH
Samford is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Samford is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
PRINCETON vs. GEORGE MASON
Princeton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Princeton's last 6 games on the road
George Mason is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games at home
George Mason is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
CHATTANOOGA vs. WISCONSIN
Chattanooga is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Chattanooga is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Wisconsin is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin's last 6 games

2:00 PM
NORTHERN KENTUCKY vs. NEBRASKA
No trends available
Nebraska is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home
Nebraska is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

2:00 PM
JACKSON STATE vs. SOUTH FLORIDA
No trends available
South Florida is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games at home
South Florida is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

2:00 PM
UMASS-LOWELL vs. RHODE ISLAND
No trends available
Rhode Island is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home
Rhode Island is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

2:00 PM
UNC ASHEVILLE vs. EAST CAROLINA
No trends available
East Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
East Carolina is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

2:00 PM
NORTHERN ARIZONA vs. TOLEDO
Northern Arizona is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Toledo is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
AQUINAS vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN
No trends available
Western Michigan is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Western Michigan's last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
SOUTHERN UTAH vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Southern Utah is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 7 games

2:00 PM
NAVY vs. NOTRE DAME
No trends available
Notre Dame is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Notre Dame is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home

2:00 PM
SAINT PETER'S vs. HARTFORD
Saint Peter's is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Saint Peter's is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
No trends available

3:00 PM
PRAIRIE VIEW A&M vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
No trends available
Oklahoma State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:00 PM
LAFAYETTE vs. WEST VIRGINIA
No trends available
West Virginia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
West Virginia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

3:00 PM
ARK MONTICELLO vs. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas-Little Rock's last 7 games at home
Arkansas-Little Rock is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home

3:00 PM
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA vs. OKLAHOMA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma's last 6 games at home
Oklahoma is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home

3:00 PM
IUPUI vs. PURDUE
No trends available
Purdue is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home
Purdue is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

3:00 PM
MASSACHUSETTS vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
No trends available
Boston College is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games
Boston College is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Massachusetts

3:00 PM
TREVECCA NAZRNE vs. VANDERBILT
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vanderbilt's last 8 games at home
Vanderbilt is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:00 PM
CORNELL vs. LOYOLA
Cornell is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games on the road
No trends available

4:00 PM
OBERLIN vs. YOUNGSTOWN STATE
No trends available
Youngstown State is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,
Youngstown State15-5-1 SU in its last 21 games at home

4:00 PM
NORTHERN COLORADO vs. WYOMING
Northern Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Wyoming
Northern Colorado is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Wyoming is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Wyoming's last 7 games at home

4:00 PM
BEREA vs. AUSTIN PEAY
No trends available
Austin Peay is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Austin Peay's last 5 games at home

4:00 PM
SAVANNAH STATE vs. MARSHALL
No trends available
Marshall is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Marshall is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games

4:00 PM
HAMPTON vs. SYRACUSE
No trends available
Syracuse is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Syracuse is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

4:00 PM
PORTLAND vs. SAN JOSE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Jose State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
San Jose State is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home

5:00 PM
UTAH STATE vs. ILLINOIS STATE
Utah State is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Illinois State's last 5 games
Illinois State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

5:00 PM
FORDHAM vs. PENN STATE
Fordham is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Fordham is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
No trends available

5:00 PM
OHIO DOMINICAN vs. WRIGHT STATE
No trends available
Wright State is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Wright State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

5:00 PM
ALABAMA STATE vs. ARKANSAS
No trends available
Arkansas is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arkansas's last 10 games

5:30 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. ELON
Charlotte is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Elon is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Elon is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games at home

5:30 PM
HOLY CROSS vs. HARVARD
No trends available
Harvard is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Harvard is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Holy Cross

5:31 PM
CHICAGO STATE vs. CREIGHTON
Chicago State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Creighton is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home
Creighton is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

6:00 PM
STETSON vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
No trends available
Central Florida is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Central Florida is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

6:00 PM
COPPIN STATE vs. ILLINOIS
No trends available
Illinois is 7-13-1 SU in its last 21 games ,
Illinois is 2-6-1 SU in its last 9 games ,at home

6:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA vs. STANFORD
No trends available
Stanford10-4-1 SU in its last 15 games at home

6:00 PM
ROBERT MORRIS vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina's last 5 games

6:00 PM
PACIFIC vs. UC IRVINE
Pacific is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against UC Irvine
Pacific is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of UC Irvine's last 7 games when playing Pacific
UC Irvine is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pacific

6:00 PM
VALPARAISO vs. MISSOURI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Valparaiso's last 6 games on the road
Valparaiso is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Missouri21-3-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Missouri is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,

6:00 PM
IDAHO STATE vs. DENVER
Idaho State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
HOLY NAMES vs. UC DAVIS
No trends available
UC Davis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
UC Davis is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games

7:00 PM
GEORGE WASHINGTON vs. RUTGERS
George Washington is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
George Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Rutgers's last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Rutgers's last 9 games at home

7:00 PM
NORFOLK STATE vs. VIRGINIA
No trends available
Virginia is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home
Virginia is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

8:00 PM
ALCORN STATE vs. TEXAS
No trends available
Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Texas is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games

8:00 PM
KENNESAW STATE vs. CALIFORNIA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of California's last 8 games
California is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games

8:00 PM
CS NORTHRIDGE vs. ARIZONA
CS Northridge is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
No trends available
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
San Francisco is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home

8:00 PM
SAM HOUSTON STATE vs. UNLV
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of UNLV's last 8 games
UNLV is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

9:00 PM
CS FULLERTON vs. NEW MEXICO
CS Fullerton is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
CS Fullerton is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
New Mexico is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
New Mexico is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home

10:00 PM
COASTAL CAROLINA vs. UCLA
No trends available
UCLA5-1-1 SU in its last 7 games
UCLA20-2-1 SU in its last 23 games at home

**StarDust Bum** · 11-16-2014, 12:41 PM

Check best bets

Announcement

The Bum's NOVEMBER'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL TRENDS-NEWS- STATS- BEST BETS ETC. !

The Bum's NOVEMBER'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL TRENDS-NEWS- STATS- BEST BETS ETC. !

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