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**Udog** · 11-11-2014, 09:39 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the more intriguing college football games this weekend

Clemson @ Georgia Tech-- Paul Johnson has his option attack rolling.

LSU @ Arkansas-- Bielema is still winless at Arkansas in SEC games, but Hogs are off a bye, while LSU had tough game with Alabama Saturday.

Auburn @ Georgia-- Dawgs are bully team; they won't be bullying Auburn.

South Carolina @ Florida-- Gators much improved with Harris at QB.

Florida State @ Miami-- This is where I point out Winston's 22-0 record.

Mississippi State @ Alabama-- #1 team in country getting seven points

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Happy Veterans' Day.......

13) Greetings from Las Vegas, where it seemed kind of quiet on my first night here. I highly recommend non-stop flights to/from Las Vegas; changing planes with a 2-hour layover made for a very long day.

12) Eagles 45, Panthers 21-- Have to feel good for Mark Sanchez, who got openly mocked by the wiseasses on ESPN before the game. Sanchez has started in two AFC title games; there are lot of NFL QBs who never played a conference championship game. Chip Kelly is on his third starting QB in 26 games, though.

11) I'll never forget this story about Sanchez; NFL teams go to colleges to work out draft prospects every spring. Obviously, if you're looking at a QB, you will also need RBs/WRs to be there, to run routes and catch his passes. Sometimes this can be a problem; when Josh Freeman worked out at Kansas State, two kids showed up to catch his passes.

When Sanchez worked out at USC, around two dozen kids showed up; USC guys, kids who played in high school with Sanchez. He is a beloved teammate by most who know him and thats a big part of being a professional quarterback.

10) NFL officials toned down the penalty stuff this weekend; teams got only 35 first downs in 13 games (2.69 per game) via penalty. Number had been around 4.3 per game for the first nine weeks of the season.

9) Chicago Bears are first team since 1923 to allow 50+ points in consecutive games; at this rate, hard to imagine all their coaches surviving the season with jobs intact.

8) Odd twist to the Alabama/LSU rivalry; LSU offensive coordinator Cam Cameron replaced Nick Saban as coach of the Dolphins when Saban bolted for Alabama.

Enjoy watching Bama-LSU games, but this year's was a little painful: Crimson Tide hit on only 20 of 46 passes. LSU was just 8-26. Oy.

7) #1 Mississippi State is a 7-point underdog this week in Tuscaloosa. Maybe the committee that picks the Final Four for playoffs should use Las Vegas power ratings as part of their selection process. Lot of brain power behind power ratings.

6) An 18-year old kid won NASCAR Nationwide championship? When did he get his license? How does an 18-year old become a professional driver and a good one?

5) Nine of the top ten in the Westgate handicapping contest were right when they had the Jets over Pittsburgh this week. They're smarter people than I am-- how did they know the Jets would have four takeaways, when they had a total of three in their first nine games? They were +4 and only won 20-13.

4) Speaking of which, top six picks each week in Westgate contest are now 33-27 this season; those picks had a lousy record (42-57-4) last year.

3) Washington State's redshirt freshman Luke Falk was 44-61 for 471 yards in his first college start last week, in a 39-32 upset win at Oregon State. Say what you want about Mike Leach, but the man can coach quarterbacks.

2) Michigan 10, Northwestern 9-- This was a terrible, sloppy game, but the ending was dramatic. Wildcats were down 10-3; they score with 0:02 left-- instead of going to OT by kicking the PAT, they try for two points and the win, in a game that had been devoid of any semblance of offense for 3.5 hours.

I think Pat Fitzgerald is a terrific coach but I hated this decision- it tells his kids they aren't as good as Michigan when for this year at least, they probably are. This is not a second guess; was yelling at my TV as it happened live and I had no stake in who won the game. It cheated the kids out of playing it out the right way. Too bad.

1) If you care about such things, over is now 23-8 in NFL night games this year.

**Udog** · 11-11-2014, 09:39 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Colts favored versus visiting Patriots

A few weeks ago, New England was 2-2 SU following a 41-14 whitewashing at the hands of the host Kansas City Chiefs, and on national TV, no less. Some were wondering if maybe the Patriots’ better days were behind them.

Well, apparently not. Tom Brady & Co. are coming off their bye week with five consecutive victories (4-1 ATS) and lead the AFC at 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS). Prior to the bye, the Pats thumped defending AFC champion Denver 43-21 as a 3-point home underdog on Nov. 2.

New England will be back in prime time for a Sunday night matchup at Indianapolis (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS), which has also rebounded nicely after losing its first two games, going on a 6-1 SU and ATS tear. The Colts are also fresh off their bye week, after ripping the host New York Giants 40-24 laying 3 points on Nov. 3.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, made the Colts a 2.5-point favorite.

“I’d say it’s hard to bet against the Pats right now given their recent success, but Indy is pretty hot too,” Lester said. “Still, I’m expecting this number to come down at some point.”

Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs

Seattle hasn’t looked anything like the team that rolled Peyton Manning and Denver in the Super Bowl. On Sunday, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) had their hands full with the New York Giants until putting up 21 fourth-quarter points to win 38-17 as a 9-point home fave.

Meanwhile, Kansas City is quietly getting its season back on track, having won its last four in a row and six of its last seven SU and ATS. The Chiefs (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) edged Buffalo 17-13 catching 2 points on the road Sunday.

“The Seahawks get a taste of their own medicine, as Arrowhead Stadium still provides a great home-field edge,” Lester said. “With two salty defenses on the field, points will come at a premium. This is a tough game to handicap in my opinion, but I’d lean toward the Chiefs.”

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona might seem like this season’s surprise team, with its 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS record, but recall the Cardinals won 10 games last year, narrowly missing the playoffs. That said, the job could get a lot harder after quarterback Carson Palmer went down with a knee injury in Sunday’s 31-14 win over St. Louis – a game the Cards, 7-point favorites, didn’t lead until the fourth quarter

Detroit (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) leads the NFC North after posting four consecutive wins (2-2 ATS), including Sunday’s 20-16 victory laying 3 points against visiting Miami.

“A couple of sparkling records, but I don’t think either team is as good as their win column suggests,” Lester said. “We know what we’re getting with Drew Stanton if Palmer can’t play, but we’ll hold off on sending out a line until Palmer’s status is confirmed. If he’s out, the Cardinals will be very short chalk or a pick ‘em.”

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

The Mark Sanchez era in Philly is well underway, while quarterback Nick Foles recuperates from an injured collarbone. Sanchez and the Eagles (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) still have some work to do before focusing on the Packers, as they wrap up Week 10 in a Monday night game at home against Carolina.

Green Bay (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) rebounded from a blowout loss at New Orleans by boatracing the Chicago Bears in the Sunday night game. The Packers led 42-0 at halftime – on six Aaron Rodgers TD passes – en route to a 55-14 shellacking as a 9.5-point favorite.

“I’m very interested to see how Mark Sanchez performs on Monday night, but as I’ve said before, he should be able to limit mistakes in Chip Kelly’s offense,” Lester said. “If nothing major happens personnel- or performance-wise, then we’ll make the Packers between 4- and 6-point favorites.”

**Udog** · 11-11-2014, 09:39 AM

NBA
Dunkel

LA Lakers at Memphis
The Lakers (1-5 SU) head to Memphis tonight to face a Grizzlies team that is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games versus teams with a losing SU record. LA is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by only 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+10 1/2). Here are all of today's NBA picks.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 11

Game 501-502: Orlando at Toronto (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 124.239; Orlando 111.365
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 13; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 10 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-10 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: LA Lakers at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 115.577; Memphis 122.969
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 10 1/2; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+10 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Oklahoma City at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.645; Milwaukee 115.453
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6; 185 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+3); Under

Game 507-508: Sacramento at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 117.935; Dallas 127.468
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 9 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 205
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7); Over

Game 509-510: Charlotte at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 114.181; Portland 127.825
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 13 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 511-512: San Antonio at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.584; Golden State 129.407
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5; 191
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

**Udog** · 11-11-2014, 09:39 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, November 11

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ORLANDO (2 - 5) at TORONTO (6 - 1) - 11/11/2014, 7:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 73-94 ATS (-30.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 78-107 ATS (-39.7 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
TORONTO is 54-39 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 6-1 against the spread versus ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 8-0 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAKERS (1 - 5) at MEMPHIS (6 - 1) - 11/11/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 2-2 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OKLAHOMA CITY (2 - 5) at MILWAUKEE (3 - 4) - 11/11/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 299-247 ATS (+27.3 Units) in all games since 1996.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 98-71 ATS (+19.9 Units) first half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 34-52 ATS (-23.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 35-60 ATS (-31.0 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 210-264 ATS (-80.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 3-1 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SACRAMENTO (5 - 2) at DALLAS (4 - 3) - 11/11/2014, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 101-76 ATS (+17.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 276-224 ATS (+29.6 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
DALLAS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 450-379 ATS (+33.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
DALLAS is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-4 against the spread versus SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 7-1 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (3 - 4) at PORTLAND (4 - 3) - 11/11/2014, 10:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 3-1 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (3 - 3) at GOLDEN STATE (5 - 1) - 11/11/2014, 10:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-7 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-4 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-11-2014, 09:40 AM

NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, November 11

Hot Teams
-- Raptors won/covered six of their first seven games.
-- Memphis won five of last six games (1-1 HF).
-- Milwaukee covered three of last four games, is 1-0 as HF.
-- Kings won/covered five of their last six games.
-- Portland won its three of last four games (4-0 vs spread).
-- Warriors won/covered five of first six games.

Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost five of first seven games, is 2-1 as road underdog.
-- Lakers lost five of first six games, covered three of last four.
-- Thunder lost five of first seven games (1-3 as AU).
-- Mavericks lost two of last three games (1-2 as HF).
-- Hornets are 0-3 on road, losing by 3-9-15 points (1-1 AU).
-- Spurs split first six games (1-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road).

Series Records
-- Raptors won their last eight games with Orlando.
-- Lakers lost six of last eight games with Memphis.
-- Thunder won four of last five games with Milwaukee.
-- Kings lost 18 of last 20 games with Dallas; Mavs' last three series wins were all by 4 or less points.
-- Hornets lost last six visits to Portland (0-6 vs spread).
-- Spurs won last six games (5-1 vs spread) with Golden State.

Totals
-- Five of seven Toronto games went over total.
-- Four of last five Laker games went over total. Last five Memphis tilts stayed under. Four of last five series games stayed under.
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Oklahoma City games this season.
-- Last three Dallas games stayed under total. Over is 3-0-1 in last four Sacramento games.
-- Five of seven Portland games stayed under total.
-- Five of six San Antonio games stayed under.

Back-to-Backs
--

East vs West
SU: West 16-9 ATS: West 14-11
East teams HF vs West: 5-4
East teams HU vs West: 3-1
West teams HF vs East: 5-3
West teams HU vs East: 4-0

**Udog** · 11-11-2014, 09:40 AM

NBA

Tuesday, November 11

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Trend Report
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7:30 PM
ORLANDO vs. TORONTO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games
Orlando is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

8:00 PM
LA LAKERS vs. MEMPHIS
LA Lakers are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games
LA Lakers are 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games
Memphis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. MILWAUKEE
Oklahoma City is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Milwaukee is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games

8:30 PM
SACRAMENTO vs. DALLAS
Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Sacramento's last 17 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Dallas's last 17 games when playing at home against Sacramento

10:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. PORTLAND
Charlotte is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games when playing at home against Charlotte

10:30 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 8 games
Golden State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio

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**Udog** · 11-11-2014, 10:56 AM

NBA

Tuesday, November 11

Klay Thompson, Golden State - Prob Tues

Thompson missed the last game with a sprained right hand but is expected to play Tuesday against the Spurs.

Trend shows Kings covering in meetings with Dallas

The Sacramento Kings have enjoyed a nice start to the season, surprising many by going 5-2 SU out of the gate.

The Kings travel to the Lone Star State for a matchup with the Dallas Mavericks, and history is showing Sacramento has been fantastic against the spread in those games.

Sacramento is 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. Dirk Nowitzki's group. The Mavs are presently -7 home faves with the total sitting at 206.

Bucks becoming a nice Under play for totals bettors

The ailing Oklahoma City Thunder seek their first road win in a showdown against the Milwaukee Bucks in Wisconsin Tuesday.

The Durant and Westbrook-less Thunder are 0-4 SU away from home this season. The Bucks have been a scorching-hot Under play as of late, evidenced by each of their last four games going Under the total.

Milwaukee is currently 2.5-point home faves with a total of 188 for the affair.

Raptors tied with Warriors for league's top ATS play

The Toronto Raptors have gotten off to a red-hot start to the NBA season, and as a result, are now tied for the league's top spread play.

Fresh off of a 120-88 blowout (and an easy -13.5 cover) against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers Sunday, the Raps (6-1 SU) are 6-1 against the spread throughout their first seven games. The Golden State Warriors fell 107-95 and failed to cover the +2.5 spread against the Phoenix Suns Sunday, but sit tied with Toronto as the only two teams in the Association with just one ATS loss (5-1).

DeMar DeRozan's squad is in action Tuesday north of the border versus the Orlando Magic, while Golden State hosts the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs in a clash of Western Conference heavyweights Tuesday evening.

**Udog** · 11-11-2014, 06:07 PM

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, November 11

Orlando at Toronto, 7:35 ET
Orlando: 66-96 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs
Toronto: 23-11 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more

LA Lakers at Memphis, 8:05 ET
LA Lakers: 13-26 ATS in road games after playing a home game
Memphis: 21-7 ATS after a game - attempting 20+ more free throws than opponent

Oklahoma City at Milwaukee, 8:05 ET
Oklahoma City: 82-47 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games
Milwaukee: 83-54 OVER after 3 or more consecutive unders

Sacramento at Dallas, 8:35 ET
Sacramento: 105-75 OVER against Southwest division opponents
Dallas: 46-27 ATS after allowing 105 points or more

Charlotte at Portland, 10:05 ET
Charlotte: 30-17 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders
Portland: 20-35 ATS after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games

San Antonio at Golden State, 10:35 ET
San Antonio: 209-167 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds
Golden State: 42-26 UNDER as a favorite

Announcement

Tuesday's NBA and NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 11/11

Tuesday's NBA and NCAAB Trends and Indexes - 11/11

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