Thursday Night CFB: Oregon St @ Oregon

[wayne1218]

Pick the Best Bet

[wayne1218]

Oregon State offense vs. Oregon defense
• The Oregon defensive line lacks size and strength, especially on the interior where DT's Brandon Bair and Blake Ferras are struggling to anchor and giving too much ground. This could be a problem against an Oregon State offensive line that is doing a good job of firing off the ball and creating creases for pint-sized RB Jacquizz Rodgers, who has excellent vision and quickness to find and get through holes. Getting movement inside will create clutter in front of Ducks MLB Casey Matthews and WLB Spencer Paysinger, making it that much harder to find and position themselves to stop the 5-foot-7 Rodgers. This means safeties Javes Lewis and T.J. Ward are going to have to come downhill in run support. Lewis and Ward must be careful not to be overzealous, though, because Beavers offensive coordinator Danny Langsdorf likes to bringing WR James Rodgers in motion before the snap and give him the ball on a jet sweep around edge. If Lewis or Ward are caught out of position, James Rodgers has the speed to rip off a big gain.

• Oregon struggled in coverage against Arizona, and Wildcats QB Nick Foles was able to take advantage of the middle of the field against a Ducks linebacker corps that had awareness issues and failed to get adequate depth in their drops. CBs Cliff Harris and Talmadge Jackson allowed too much of a cushion and struggled to limit separation as a result, and things won't get any easier against QB Sean Canfield and Oregon State. Canfield is making good decisions and completing better than 70 percent of his throws, benefiting from a talented receiving corps led by James Rodgers and fellow WR Damola Adeniji, who at 6-foot-3 can be a matchup problem on the perimeter. Canfield has also developed a strong rapport with reserve pass-catching TE Joe Halahuni, who should have an opportunity to exploit the middle of the field off play-action against undisciplined linebackers and safeties who bite on play fakes at times.

• The Beavers' offensive line has not been as good in pass protection as it has in the running game. Communication breakdowns are a big part of those struggles. The line will need to turn in its best performance of the season against a feisty Ducks pass rush. DE Kenny Rowe is quick and relentless off the edge and should cause headaches for ROT Mike Remmers and LOT Michael Phillip. Defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti has been aggressive and creative with his blitzes, using different launch points from the second and third lines of defense, which will also put pressure on Canfield and his receivers to execute hot reads and sight adjustments when Oregon overloads one side of the formation.


Oregon offense vs. Oregon State defense
• The Beavers have the best run defense in the Pac-10 (98.5 ypg) but will face a completely different animal this week against Oregon's unconventional spread rushing attack. Discipline will be the key for Oregon State's front seven. DT Stephen Paea has been disruptive in the middle and should be able to anchor the interior but much will depend on how DEs Gabe Miller and Matt LaGrone play on the edges against the Ducks' zone-read package. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli has been making good reads and exploiting overzealous defensive ends who have been too quick to close down the line of scrimmage. Miller and LaGrone must stay home, making sure Masoli hands the ball to RB LaMichael James. In addition, the Beavers' linebackers must play under control and take proper angles when Masoli does hand the ball to James, who has the vision, lateral movement and burst to take advantage of cutback lanes created by overpursuit.

• Masoli continues to gash defenses with his legs but it is his throwing that has taken his game to another level. He is gaining confidence, throwing with better rhythm and timing and showing improved accuracy down the field. All of that had led to the emergence of WRs Lavasier Tuinei, D.J. Davis and Jeff Maehl, all of whom have the ability to stretch the field. That vertical threat has in turn opened up room for one of the premier pass-catching tight ends in the nation in Ed Dickson, who has done an excellent job exploiting mismatches in the middle of the field. The offensive line also has done an adequate job in protection, and Masoli has the chance to turn in another big performance against a Beavers defense that has struggled to get consistent pressure up front and has had issues limiting separation.

• The Beavers must find a way to force some turnovers if they hope to slow down the Ducks, but Oregon has struggled to do so this season. Defensive coordinator Mark Banker must mix up his pre-snap looks in an effort to confuse the Ducks. Look for the Beavers to cheat their safeties into the box on early downs in an effort to bottle up Masoli and James. They also must send pressure from different areas of the field, even if it means sacrificing a few defenders in coverage and increasing the risk of giving up a big play. Masoli has a tendency to force throws into coverage when under duress. If Banker is able to get home with a few pressures it could lead to the takeaways Oregon State needs.

Scouts' Edge
The winner of this year's edition of the Civil War game will punch a ticket to Pasadena for a Rose Bowl matchup against Ohio State, so expect both teams to come out firing in an entertaining offensive shootout. Masoli who will continue to make plays both on the ground and through the air and the Beavers will hang tough by keeping the Ducks' defense on their heels with a balanced attack and play-action. However, the Oregon pass rush should force a turnover or two that seal the game late and send the Ducks to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1995.

Prediction: Ducks 37, Beavers 33