Big 12 Championship: Nebraska vs Texas

[wayne1218]

Pick the Best Bet

[SteinDallas]

TEXAS LAYS the WOOD Mc Coy LOCKS up the Hiesman

[wayne1218]

Texas offense vs. Nebraska defense
• The top offensive priority for Texas has to be minimizing the impact of Nebraska DTs Ndamukong Suh and Jared Crick. It won't be easy because Suh, who is one of the best in the nation, and Crick match up favorably in any one-one-one battles with Longhorns RG Michael Huey, LG Charlie Tanner and C Chris Hall. Offensive coordinator Greg Davis has to help his interior offensive linemen in a number of different ways, including varying his blocking schemes. Texas can double-team the play-side defensive tackle with a guard and tackle and block back on the other defensive tackle with Hall when pulling the back-side guard, and can also run draws that allow the interior offensive linemen to bait the defensive tackles upfield and then ride them in whichever direction their momentum carries them. They can ride the defensive tackles in either direction because QB Colt McCoy and RB Tre' Newton both read blocks well.

• Another way Davis will help his interior offensive linemen is by getting the ball out of McCoy's hands quickly with plenty of three-step drops and screens. WR Jordan Shipley is a crisp route-runner who can separate from man coverage quickly and is adept at finding soft spots in zone coverage. Shipley's supporting cast isn't as consistent but Malcolm Williams, James Kirkendoll and Marquise Goodwin can all produce after the catch, which means Nebraska's back seven must tackle well in space. Don't expect many middle screens, though, because Suh and Crick do a good job getting their hands up into passing windows and tipped passes increase the chances of Texas turning the ball over. In addition, Suh has shown he can come down with the interceptions when he gets his hands on the ball.

• The final way Davis will help counteract Suh and Crick is by making the most of McCoy's mobility. Look for the Longhorns to run plenty of read-option plays in an effort to get Suh and Crick to collapse on the running back. If they do it will help create a seam that McCoy has the burst and vision to exploit. Davis should also roll McCoy out of the pocket and give him the option to run or pass depending on the coverage. The Cornhuskers' perimeter edge rushers have to be aggressive enough to force McCoy to hurry his decisions and make it difficult for him to set his feet without letting him break contain when he does roll out.

Key individual matchup

Nebraska ROT D.J. Jones vs. Texas LDE Sergio Kindle

The 315-pound James is big enough to engulf the 255-pound Kindle in the running game. Texas can try to mask Kindle's inability to anchor by lining him up 2 to 3 yards outside Jones' shoulder, but Jones can simply turn Kindle to the outside and let RB Roy Helu Jr. cut up behind him. However, Jones will have a much tougher time keeping Kindle out of the backfield in third-and-long situations. Kindle is quick enough to turn the corner against Jones and has above-average closing speed. If Nebraska tries to take the corner away by widening Jones' split or keeping a back or tight end in to help out in protection, the relentless Kindle has the lateral mobility and enough lower-body strength to redirect inside.

Nebraska offense vs. Texas defense
• Nebraska should have some success running right at DT Lamarr Houston despite the fact that Houston is the Longhorns' strongest run defender and rarely gives ground in one-on-one situations. However, he has some problems anchoring against double-teams and running at him will make it easier for the Cornhuskers to combo-block him up to MLB Roddrick Muckelroy. A big key for Nebraska's interior offensive linemen is making sure they have neutralized Houston before one of them slides off to the block to pick up Muckelroy. Otherwise, Houston will use his upper-body strength to shed the remaining blocker and make the play. The good news for the interior offensive linemen is Roy Helu Jr. won't make Houston's job any easier. Helu Jr. has excellent vision and he will cut in the opposite direction if Houston tries to go around the double-team instead of fighting through it.

• The Texas secondary is banged up right now with a knee injury slowing CB Aaron Williams and CB Deon Beasley sustaining an apparent head injury against Texas A&M last week. Aggies QB Jerrod Johnson took advantage of coverage breakdowns rather than injuries, though. For example, CB Chykie Brown was beaten over the top for a 70-yard touchdown and his technique suggests he was counting on safety help over the top. The Cornhuskers will use their route structures to see if similar breakdowns continue this week. They will clear out the underneath for their tight ends by running receivers downfield and try to run corners into one another by crossing their receivers. Keep an eye on TE Mike McNeill in particular because he can function as an in-line receiver or from the slot and is at his best exploiting soft spots in zone looks.

• Nebraska's play-action bootlegs will test the discipline of DEs Sergio Kindle and Sam Acho as well as OLBs Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson. Huskers QB Zac Lee isn't as dangerous an open-field runner as McCoy but he is mobile enough to move out of the pocket and throws well on the run. Further complicating matters, TEs McNeill, Dreu Young and Ben Cotton do a good job of selling their blocks before releasing downfield. If the ends and/or linebackers converge on the back when Nebraska runs a bootleg, the result should be a relatively easy completion. If they get caught looking for the bootleg when the Cornhuskers run it will help create room for Helu Jr. and backup Rex Burkhead.

Scouts' Edge

A strong defensive effort will keep Nebraska in this game but the Cornhuskers won't be as productive running the ball against Texas as the Aggies were last week, and it will cost them the game. Nebraska has not shown it can beat a conference foe when Lee is forced to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load. Lee is too inconsistent and makes some questionable decisions, especially under pressure, and Texas should have some success getting to him in this game. McCoy, on the other hand, will continue to extend drives with his feet and take what the defense gives him when he drops back to pass.


Prediction: Longhorns 31, Cornhuskers 13