Wednesday Night CFB: #5 Boise St @ Tulsa

[wayne1218]

Pick the Best Bet

[Kaptain]

Boise

[poskid]

This is the last game that may pose a problem for Boise in their bid to go undefeated and challenge for a big bowl spot. I have to believe they are going to be totally prepared and are going to step up and crush this team.

Boise by 20

PK

[wayne1218]

ESPN INSIDER

Scouts' Edge


Boise State offense versus Tulsa defense

• Broncos QB Kellen Moore is playing at a high level, making sound decisions and doing an excellent job of managing the game. Moore has thrown 13 touchdowns to just two interceptions and has the second-highest passer rating in the nation (176.6), and he is spreading the ball around to a talented group of receivers. WR Austin Pettis has excellent size, and his polished route-running and excellent top-end speed have allowed him to find separation regularly. TE Kyle Efaw has developed into a strong pass-catcher working the middle, and WR Titus Young is explosive after the catch and can turn a short throw into a long gain. This does not bode well for a Tulsa secondary that has struggled to limit big plays since losing its leader, free safety Charles Davis, to a season-ending knee injury.

• Moore has been getting solid protection from Boise State's offensive line, which is playing as a cohesive unit and communicating well and has allowed just three sacks this season. It will be crucial for the Golden Hurricane to find some chinks in the armor and make Moore uncomfortable in the pocket. Tulsa defensive coordinator Keith Patterson has flexibility within his 3-3-5 defense and must use it to disguise the fourth and fifth rushers and their launch points. Patterson also must choose the correct times when dialing up pressures because Moore has done an excellent job of making defenses pay when they elect to blitz.

• Boise State RB Jeremy Avery has carried the majority of the load since RB D.J. Harper was lost for the season to a knee injury in Week 3, and sophomore Doug Martin has done a nice job of spelling Avery in a reserve role. However, both Avery and Martin will have to work hard this week against a stingy Tulsa run defense. DE Odrick Ray and NG Wilson Garrison are quick and disruptive on the front line, and MLB Mike Bryan is an instinctive, blue-collar player who is active and should eat up anything to the inside. James Lockett and DeAundre Brown, who play a hybrid role on the second level in the 3-3-5, have excellent range and do a nice job filling the alleys in run support. They should be able to limit Avery or Martin when they look to hit the edge.

Key individual matchup

Tulsa WR Slick Shelley versus Boise State CB Kyle Wilson

With his combination of size (6-foot-4, 200 pounds) and top-end speed, Shelley has developed into one of the Golden Hurricane's big-play receiving threats. However, he will have a tough time finding separation from Wilson this week. Wilson is extremely fluid in the hips, providing him quick change-of-direction ability that will allow him to stay in Shelley's pocket out of his breaks with underneath routes. Wilson also possesses the acceleration to stay with Shelley on any post, go or nine routes down the field. In addition, don't look for Shelley to use his nearly 6-inch advantage over Wilson in jump-ball situations; Wilson does an excellent job of positioning himself and timing his jumps when playing the ball.
Tulsa offense versus Boise State defense

• Injuries have prevented Tulsa's offensive linemen from getting on the same page this season. This unit has failed to consistently open up holes in the ground game and has communication problems in protection. The line should get some relief with the return of LOG Clint Anderson, who has missed or been limited in the past three games with a foot injury. Still, it will be crucial for this unit to correct these problems heading into Wednesday night's contest against a stout Boise State front seven. DE Ryan Winterswyk displays brute strength holding the edge, and his combination of speed and power as a rusher will cause fits for either LOT Brandon Thomas or ROT David Lazenby. In addition, the Broncos do an excellent job of executing the inside dog blitz, on which MLB Daron Mackey and WLB Aaron Tevis time these pressures well before shooting into opposite A-gaps. Tulsa's front line must put forth its best effort this week and show good awareness. If it doesn't, QB G.J. Kinne could be on his back more often than not.

• Although Kinne has turned in strong overall numbers throughout the season, his production severely dipped against upper-echelon competition -- Oklahoma's secondary -- in Week 3. Kinne appeared overwhelmed by the speed and athleticism of the Sooners and turned in a subpar showing in which he completed 12 of 26 passes for 106 yards and two interceptions. The Broncos aren't as deep as Oklahoma in the back end, but they certainly are in the same ballpark as far as talent. CB Kyle Wilson is extremely fluid in coverage, and his instincts and ball skills provide him with big-play abilities. In addition, DS George Iloka is long at 6-3, and he shows good range and does a nice job of reading quarterbacks' eyes when roaming the middle. Kinne must make good decisions this week and use his checkdowns or feet if things are cloudy in coverage. If he tries to force the action, it could result in a costly turnover.

• Pint-sized WR Damaris Johnson (5-8, 170) is fleet-footed and has been the X factor for Tulsa offensively this season. His quickness, vision and elusiveness make him a home run threat anywhere on the field. In addition, offensive coordinator Herb Hand has been creative getting the ball into Johnson's hands with reverses, sweeps and quick screens. Johnson has been dangerous as a returner as well, averaging 16.5 yards per punt return while returning one 66 yards for a touchdown. That said, the Broncos must be sure to keep close tabs on Johnson wherever he is on the field Wednesday night. It will be crucial that they break down in the open field to slow Johnson. If they get sloppy with angles and tackling, Johnson could make them pay and cash in with a few big plays.

Scouts' Edge

Although Tulsa is off to a 4-1 start, the Golden Hurricane's record can be misleading; they've beaten four inferior teams and were physically and mentally overmatched by Oklahoma as expected. They will have their hands full Wednesday night against a well-coached Boise State team. Look for the Broncos' defense to be the difference, as it will be able to control the line of scrimmage with its front seven slowing the run and applying pressure to Kinne throughout the night. On the flip side, look for Tulsa's defense to keep this one close early by feeding off the home crowd. However, Moore will find a rhythm in the second half and come up with a few big throws that will eventually seal the deal and allow the Broncos to take a step closer to a BCS bowl bid.

Prediction: Broncos 38, Golden Hurricane 26