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CFB Game of the Week: #20 Oklahoma vs #3 Texas
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Originally posted by kbsooner21 View PostCan't figure this line out. Already down on Tex -3. Hoping for a nice middle.
Texas ought to roll this shit Sooner team up big.
Texas 34-13
Truer Words have never been spoken.
Another "Trap Line" out of Vegas!
TOUCHDOWN FAT BOY!
I was Born my Pappy's Son,
When I hit the ground, I was on the Run!
Jon E. Checkers
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ESPN INSIDER
Scouts' Edge
Oklahoma offense versus Texas defense
• Oklahoma scored 35 points against the Longhorns last season despite mustering just 48 net rushing yards. Considering the Sooners' pass-protection issues, QB Sam Bradford's fragile state and OU's inexperience at wide receiver (seven first-half drops in a 33-7 win over Baylor last week), it's hard to imagine them pulling off the upset on Saturday without more production from the ground game. Despite some early struggles, RBs Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray combined for 183 yards on 43 carries against Baylor. The level of competition gets ratcheted up a few notches versus Texas, which has allowed the least rush yards per contest in the nation.
• Texas should prepare to see Brown and Murray on the field simultaneously. Murray has been taking more snaps at wideout in the wake of Ryan Broyles' injury and the departures of Juaquin Iglesias, Manuel Johnson and Quentin Chaney from a year ago. Murray has soft hands and is a huge threat after the catch. He also seems to have a good feel for running short-to-intermediate routes. Even if Broyles returns Saturday, expect Murray to get some work in the slot. Let's face it: Oklahoma is running low on playmakers and can't afford to have one of its most talented weapons spending much time on the sideline in a game of this magnitude.
• Look for the Sooners to quicken the pace on offense and continue to use misdirection to keep Texas' defense honest. Oklahoma's offense is hardly the high-powered attack it was last year at this time, but coach Bob Stoops is likely to at least dabble with the no-huddle, hurry-up approach after witnessing its positive results in 2008. Texas' defensive line was gassed at times during last year's contest, which diminished the effectiveness of its pass rush. Misdirection plays also helped exploit the Longhorns when they became overaggressive up front. In fact, one of the Sooners' biggest plays from scrimmage in that game came on a misdirection play-action pass to Murray out of the backfield (for a 34-yard gain). Don't be surprised to see even more misdirection and trickery from Oklahoma's offense this time around.
Key individual matchup
ROT Jarvis Jones versus Texas buck end Sergio Kindle
Although Kindle's statistics -- two sacks through five games -- are underwhelming by his standards, he still makes an impact for the Longhorns. Kindle plays a versatile role in Will Muschamp's defense, but his best asset remains his speed off the edge. Texas' top priority on defense is to keep the heat on Bradford, so expect Kindle to focus more this week on rushing the passer than he has at any other point this season. In addition, look for Muschamp to work the mismatch of Kindle versus Jones as frequently as possible Saturday, especially after LOT Trent Williams kept Kindle in check during last year's game the opposite side. Jones has a massive frame and should develop into a good starting tackle for the Sooners at some point. However, his lack of experience and poor change-of-direction skills are exploitable.
Texas offense versus Oklahoma defense
• There are a few reasons Oklahoma does such a good job of frustrating opposing quarterbacks and offensive linemen with its blitz package. First, what coordinator Brent Venables' unit shows you pre-snap is rarely what you get once the play begins. Secondly, the athleticism of DEs Auston English and Jeremy Beal gives Venables a unique amount of flexibility with the zone-blitz package. English and Beal make up one of the premier pass-rushing tandems in the country, yet each covers adequate ground when asked to drop into underneath zone coverage. Finally, Venables does an excellent job of anticipating the hot read and smothering that potential pass-catcher with press-man coverage. That was one area of Venables' game plan that frustrated Texas QB Colt McCoy last time around. For example, a Sooners linebacker showed blitz before the snap (second-and-10, 1:18 remaining in first quarter), and McCoy saw him coming. Once the ball was snapped, a Sooners safety came charging up the field and blanketed the tight end, who had been McCoy's primary target on the hot read. McCoy tried to buy time by rolling out of the pocket, but the rush got to him for a 13-yard loss.
• Texas spread the field with mostly three- and four-receiver sets last year, and McCoy had success hitting soft spots in the Sooners' zone coverage -- particularly in the short-to-intermediate zone. By spreading the field horizontally, it helped limit the number of defenders whom Venables could involve in the aforementioned blitz package. It also played to the strengths of both McCoy and his go-to receiver, Jordan Shipley. McCoy is at his best when he can make quick reads and throw to receivers on short-to-intermediate routes. Shipley is at his best when he gets a free release off the line and can use his savvy to find soft spots underneath zone coverage. It would be wise for OU to put more press coverage on Shipley on Saturday and force him to run more routes down the field. It might require Venables to gamble in other areas of coverage, but limiting Shipley's touches has to be the Sooners' top priority after he tore this group up for 112 yards on 11 catches in 2008.
• The Sooners are doing a better job covering kicks this season than they did last season, but this facet of the game undoubtedly will be a huge point of emphasis during this week's practice. Remember, Shipley burned the Sooners on a 96-yard kickoff return in last year's game, and Texas' return teams are even more potent this fall. Texas leads the nation in kickoff-return average, thanks in large part to D.J. Monroe, who has two touchdown returns on the season. It also ranks 11th nationally in punt-return average, thanks in large part to Shipley, who also has a pair of touchdown returns in 2009.
Scouts' Edge
The Red River Rivalry is no stranger to an upset. Texas pulled off the game's most recent shake-up last season when it took down the top-ranked Sooners 45-35. Do not expect Oklahoma to return the favor this time around, though. Slow starts have been a problem this season for the Longhorns, who were tied with Wyoming in the second quarter and trailed Colorado heading into the second half. However, we suspect Texas should have no trouble getting revved up for its biggest rival. Look for McCoy to spread the wealth via the air, especially if Oklahoma overcompensates to limit Shipley's production. On the flip side of the ball, Texas' pass rush should overwhelm the Sooners' offensive line and force Bradford into too many uncharacteristic errors. Mack Brown's squad will make it two in a row over Oklahoma in a much more defensive contest this time around.
Prediction: Longhorns 35, Sooners 24
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