Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 8/5

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, August 5

Good Luck on day #217 of 2021!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Major league leaders in RBI:
85— Vladimir Guerrero, Tor
82— Shohei Ohtani, LAA, Rafael Devers, Bos
81— Jose Abreu, CWS
76— Jesus Aguilar Mia, Austin Meadows TB
75— Manny Machado, SD
73— Bo Bichette, Tor

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

13) USA 97, Australia 78:
— Americans advance to the gold medal game.
— Australia led 41-26 in 2nd quarter.
— Down 45-42 at the half, USA outscored Australia 32-10 in 3rd quarter.
— Other semi-final is France-Slovenia at 7am, when I will be sound asleep

12) Next week is the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas, which is great fun to watch, but for the love of God, please do not wager on these games. I’ve told this story before, but…….

Several years ago, I’m in Cox Pavilion at UNLV with my friend Dennis watching summer league games. Guy who looks like a bodybuilder sits in front of us, drink in hand, talking loudly about the team he wagered on. “Team A won by 20 yesterday; they’re GOING TO KILL this team” and so on and so on, until right before the opening tap.

One small problem; Team A didn’t play the same guys that day they did in their last game, and they got spanked pretty badly. The guy in front of us was steaming; not even sure if he knew different guys were playing, but we moved our location for the second half, to get away from the inevitable explosion when he lost.

NBA teams need to see all the guys on their summer league roster to see who they want to invite to training camp; they also don’t overwork the guys they know are keepers, so the scrubs get a good look in front of scouts for pro leagues overseas. Lot of the people in the strands at summer league are scouts for pro leagues in other countries.

11) Miami Heat signed G Duncan Robinson to a 5-year, $90M contract, which is amazing, seeing how Robinson once played D-III college ball at Williams College, before he transferred to D-I at Michigan. Nowadays, skilled shooters get paid major money.

In the 2013-14 season, Robinson played D-III ball, which is really good at the highest level, but no one there has any delusions about becoming a millionaire playing hoops. D-III teams don’t give scholarships, kids pay to go to school and play ball. They play because they love it.

Seriously, someone needs to make a movie out of this guy’s career someday.

10) Speaking of career paths, here is PJ Tucker’s:
2006-07— Toronto Raptors, NBA
2007— Colorado in the G-League
2007-08— Hapoel Holon in Israel
2008-10— Donetsk in Ukraine
2010— Bnei Hasharon in Israel
2010-11— Aris Thessaloniki in Greece
2011— Sutor Montegranaro in Italy
2011-12— Brose Baskets in Germany
2012-17— Phoenix Suns, NBA
2017— Toronto Raptors, NBA
2017-21— Houston Rockets, NBA
2021— Milwaukee Bucks, NBA

PJ Tucker just signed a 2-year contract worth $15M with Miami. Hard work pays off.

9) Tucker is 36 years old; he scored 98 points in 23 playoff games for the Bucks this year, but they won the NBA title in large part because Tucker does the little things that help teams win, and smart guys like Pat Riley/Erik Spoelstra value that.

8) Minnesota Twins are 42-20 when they allow 5 or fewer runs, 3-43 when they allow 6+ runs.

7) 37-year old Cole Hamels is going to sign on with the Dodgers; Hamels has started 422 MLB games, has a 163-122 record- he only pitched one game for Atlanta LY before getting hurt. He is 7-6, 3.41 in 16 playoff games. Dodgers can use him if he is healthy.

6) A’s 5, Padres 4 (10)
— A’s scored 2 in ninth to tie game; Yan Gomes had a huge hit.
— Matt Olson won with a 2-run double in the 10th.

5) Angels’ 3B Anthony Rendon (hip) will have surgery, is out for the year.

4) Can the Miami Dolphins equal their 29 takeaways from last year? When a team has a +9 turnover ratio, it can be difficult to replicate that- they were minus-19 the previous three years. Dolphins just missed out of the playoffs LY; they’ll need better QB play this season.

3) Since 2015, Canadian Football League underdogs are 48-26-2 (65%) ATS in Weeks 1-4

2) Jimmy V Classic in New York City December 7; Villanova-Syracuse, an old Big East rivalry and Tennessee-Texas Tech.

One of these years, Jimmy V Classic has to include an Iona-NC State game, the two teams Jim Valvano was head coach of.

1) There is an NFL game on TV tonight, Cowboys-Steelers from the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton. Summer is going by way too fast.

[Udog]

901NY METS -902 MIAMI
NY METS are 4-17 SU (-18.1 Units) in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game on the season in the current season.

903CHICAGO CUBS -904 COLORADO
COLORADO is 34-15 SU (23.3 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

905SAN FRANCISCO -906 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 8-31 SU (-26.4 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the current season.

907PHILADELPHIA -908 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 18-33 SU (-21.4 Units) vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

909PITTSBURGH -910 CINCINNATI
PITTSBURGH is 2-13 SU (-14.8 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start in the current season.

911ATLANTA -912 ST LOUIS
ATLANTA is 33-26 SU (7.5 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

913BOSTON -914 DETROIT
DETROIT is 12-2 SU (12.7 Units) in home games vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

915LA ANGELS -916 TEXAS
TEXAS are 14-33 SU (-25.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.

917SEATTLE -918 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 61-40 SU (17 Units) in home games in night games in the last 3 seasons.

919CLEVELAND -920 TORONTO
TORONTO is 31-19 SU (11 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, August 5

[Udog]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, August 5

NL games
Mets (56-51) @ Miami (46-62)
— Hill is 0-0, 6.30 in two starts for the Mets.
— Mets are 2-0 in his starts.
— over 12-8-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-21
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-5
— He is 2-1, 5.48 in 5 games (4 starts) vs Miami.

— Mets are 21-26 in their last 47 games.
— Mets are 4-7 in last 11 road games.
— under 8-6-2 last 16 games.
— scored run in first inning: 27-107
— record in first 5 innings: 46-49-12

— Marlins haven’t named a starter.

— Marlins are 17-26 in their last 43 games.
— Miami is 5-9 in last 14 home games.
— under 6-4 last ten home games
— scored run in first inning: 25-108
— record in first 5 innings: 40-48-20

Cubs (52-57) @ Colorado (47-61)
— Arrieta is 0-4, 11.95 in his last six starts.
— Cubs are 6-12 in his starts.
— under 12-5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 8-18
— record in first 5 innings: 4-13-1
— He is 2-3, 5.82 in six starts vs Colorado.

— Cubs are 10-24 in last 34 games.
— Chicago is 3-7 in its last ten road games.
— Under is 9-6 in last 15 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-109
— record in first 5 innings: 46-50-13

— Marquez is 5-2, 2.26 in his last eight starts.
— Rockies are 13-9 in his starts.
— under 9-3-1 last 13
— allowed run in first inning: 4-22
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 13-8-1
— He is 1-2, 6.66 in five starts vs Chicago.

— Colorado is 22-20 in its last 42 games.
— Rockies are 34-21 at home, 13-40 on road.
— under 19-11 last 30 games.
— scored run in first inning: 35-109
— record in first 5 innings: 43-50-16

San Francisco (67-40) @ Arizona (34-74)
— Wood is 3-0, 3.95 in his last five starts.
— Giants are 12-6 in his starts.
— over 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 5-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-4-4
— He is 2-0, 3.27 in two starts vs Arizona this year.

— Giants are 10-8 since All-Star break.
— Giants are 8-4 in last 12 road games.
— Over is 10-6 in their last 16 games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-107
— record in first 5 innings: 58-36-13

— Kelly is 2-1, 4.03 in his last five starts.
— Arizona is 10-12 in his starts.
— over 8-4 last 12
— allowed run in first inning: 6-22
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-3
— He is 1-1, 5.06 in three starts vs San Francisco this year.

— Arizona is 7-6 in its last 13 games.
— Arizona is 6-3 in its last nine home games.
— over 12-8 last 20 games
— scored run in first inning: 15-107
— record in first 5 innings: 39-60-8

Philadelphia (55-53) @ Washington (49-59)
— Nola is 2-1, 3.81 in his last four starts.
— Phillies are 10-11 in his starts.
— over 10-10-1
— allowed run in first inning: 7-21
— record in first 5 innings: 11-9-1
— He is 6-7, 3.89 in 22 starts vs Washington.

— Phillies are 4-0 in last four games.
— Phillies are 31-21 at home, 24-32 on road.
— over 20-7 last 27 games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-108
— record in first 5 innings: 43-42-23

— Ross is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts.
— Nationals are 5-12 in his starts.
— under 12-4-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9-1
— He is 0-1, 3.27 in two starts vs Philly this year.

— Washington is 7-16 in its last 23 games.
— Nationals are 5-11 in last 16 home games.
— over 5-0 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 36-107
— record in first 5 innings: 44-43-20

Pittsburgh (41-67) @ Cincinnati (57-51)
— Crowe is 2-0, 3.24 in his last three starts.
— Pirates are 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— over 5-1-1 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 5-15
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 5-8-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Cincinnati.

— Pirates are 5-15 in last 20 games.
— Pittsburgh is 5-11 in last 16 road games.
— over 18-10-1 last 29 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-107
— record in first 5 innings: 34-60-13

— Gray is 2-2, 6.86 in his last four starts.
— Reds are 7-8 in his starts.
— under 7-7-1
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 3-10-2
— He is 3-3, 3.83 in seven starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Cincinnati is 10-8 in its last 18 games.
— Reds are 5-6 in last 11 home games.
— over 8-3 last 11 home games
— scored run in first inning: 32-108
— record in first 5 innings: 50-43-16

Atlanta (54-54) @ St Louis (53-54)
— Muller is 2-3, 1.88 in six starts.
— Braves are 3-3 in his starts.
— under 4-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-6
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3-1
— He hasn’t pitched against St Louis.

— Braves won three of last four games.
— Atlanta is 10-5 in last 15 road games.
— under 7-5-1 last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 39-108
— record in first 5 innings: 54-40-14

— LeBlanc is 0-2, 2.93 in six starts.
— Cardinals are 3-3 in his starts.
— under 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-4
— He is 0-4, 6.28 in 12 games (4 starts) vs Atlanta.

— Cardinals are 17-13 in last 30 games.
— St Louis is 7-4 in its last 11 home games.
— Under is 24-17-2 in their last 43 games.
— scored run in first inning: 34-107
— record in first 5 innings: 43-45-19

AL games
Boston (64-45) @ Detroit (52-58)
— Perez is 0-3, 7.64 in his last four starts.
— Boston is 12-9 in his starts.
— under 12-8-1
— allowed run in first inning: 7-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-9-3
— He is 2-4, 6.33 in eight starts vs Detroit.

— Boston lost five of last six games.
— Red Sox are 9-13 in last 22 road games.
— under 10-3 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 37-109
— record in first 5 innings: 49-44-16

— Skubal is 1-3, 5.96 in his last four starts.
— Tigers are 8-12 in his starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 4-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-11-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Boston.

— Detroit is 5-7 in its last 12 games.
— Detroit is 4-10 in last 14 road games.
— over 28-21-1 last 50 games
— scored run in first inning: 24-110
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7 last 17

Angels (53-53) @ Texas (38-69)
— Bundy is 0-2, 10.22 in his last four starts.
— Angels are 5-10 in his starts.
— under 10-5
— allowed run in first inning: 4-15
— record in first 5 innings: 3-10-2
— He is 5-2, 3.51 in 10 games (8 starts) vs Texas.

— Angels lost five of last nine games.
— Angels are 5-5 in last ten road games.
— under 11-5 last 16 games
— scored run in first inning: 35-108
— record in first 5 innings: 48-47-13

— Howard is making his first start for Texas.
— He was 0-3, 6.59 in eight starts for Philly.
— Phillies were 3-5 in his starts.
— under 4-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Anaheim.

— Texas lost 17 of last 20 games.
— Texas is 6-8 in last 14 home games.
— under 3-1 last four games.
— scored run in first inning: 19-108
— record in first 5 innings: 34-60-14

Seattle (58-51) @ Bronx (58-49)
— TAnderson is 2-0, 3.09 in his last four starts.
— Mariners lost his first start for them.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 7-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-4
— He hasn’t pitched against New York.

— Seattle is 27-15 in its last 42 games.
— Seattle is 8-5 in last 13 road games.
— over 7-4 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 33-109
— record in first 5 innings: 50-50-9

— Cortes is 0-0, 1.38 in three starts (13 IP)
— New York is 3-0 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-0-1
— He gave up a run in 1.2 IP, in a relief stint vs Seattle.

— New York is 17-7 in last 24 games.
— New York is 7-2 in last nine home games.
— over 9-3-1 last 13 home games
— scored run in first inning: 24-107 (0 of last 22)
— record in first 5 innings: 44-41-22

Cleveland (52-53) @ Toronto (56-49)
— McKenzie is 0-1, 5.57 in his last four starts.
— Indians are 6-8 in his starts.
— over 8-6
— allowed run in first inning: 4-14
— record in first 5 innings: 4-7-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Toronto.

— Cleveland is 12-23 in last 35 games.
— Indians are 5-12 in last 17 road games.
— over 10-6-1 last 17 road games
— scores run in first inning: 32-105
— record in first 5 innings: 38-51-16

— Stripling is 1-0, 2.61 in his last two starts.
— Toronto is 8-9 in his starts.
— under 8-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 7-17
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-1
— He gave up 5 runs in 6.2 IP in 2 games (1 start) vs Cleveland.

— Toronto won six of last seven games.
— Blue Jays are 5-1 in Toronto so far.
— Under is 8-3-2 in last 13 games.
— scored run in first inning: 34-105
— record in first 5 innings: 13-6 last 19

Kansas City (46-60) @ White Sox (63-45)
— Lynch is 1-1, 1.93 in his last two starts.
— Kansas City is 1-4 in his starts.
— under 2-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-1
— He gave up 8 runs in 0.2 IP vs Chicago May 8.

— Royals lost four of last five games.
— Royals are 3-13 in last 16 road games.
— under 11-2-2 last 15 games.
— scores run in first inning: 22-106
— record in first 5 innings: 39-54-13

— Keuchel is 1-1, 4.63 in his last two starts.
— Chicago is 12-8 in his starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 13-5-2
— He is 6-2, 2.76 in 12 starts vs Kansas City.

— Chicago is 5-8 in its last 13 games.
— White Sox are 11-5 in last 16 home games.
— over 11-4 last 15 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-108
— record in first 5 innings: 59-32-17

Minnesota (45-63) @ Houston (65-42)
— Jax is 0-1, 5.14 in three starts.
— Twins are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Houston.

— Minnesota is 6-13 in its last 19 games.
— Twins are 5-13 in last 18 road games.
— over 7-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 38-108
— record in first 5 innings: 32-54-22

— Valdez is 2-0, 1.64 in his last two starts.
— Astros are 9-3 in his starts.
— over 7-5
— allowed run in first inning: 2-12
— record in first 5 innings: 8-3-1
— He gave up 2 runs in 7 IP vs Minnesota June 13.

— Astros are 9-5 in last 14 games.
— Astros are 6-1 in last seven home games.
— over 16-10 in last 26 games
— scored run in first inning: 39-108
— record in first 5 innings: 59-35-14

[Udog]

MLB

Thursday, August 5

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Trend Report
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NY Mets @ Miami
NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Mets's last 11 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami
Miami is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing NY Mets
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets

Boston @ Detroit
Boston
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

LA Angels @ Texas
LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Angels's last 11 games on the road
LA Angels is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Texas
Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels

Chi Cubs @ Colorado
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Colorado's last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games

San Francisco @ Arizona
San Francisco
San Francisco is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games

Philadelphia @ Washington
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 16 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home

Seattle @ NY Yankees
Seattle
Seattle is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Seattle's last 16 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Seattle
NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

Cleveland @ Toronto
Cleveland
Cleveland is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Cleveland's last 24 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Pittsburgh

Kansas City @ Chi White Sox
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City

Minnesota @ Houston
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Houston
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Atlanta @ St. Louis
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games


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[Udog]

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, August 5

[Udog]

Diamond Trends for Thursday August 5
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Chi. Cubs at Colorado (3:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockies are 10-0 SU since Sept. 30, 2018 as a favorite when it is the last game of a three game series where the first two games were split.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Kansas City at Chi. White Sox (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Royals are 0-16 SU since May 9, 2018 as a road underdog off a road win by at least five runs.

OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: Minnesota at Houston (8:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Astros are 9-0 OU (3.89 ppg) since Aug. 2, 2019 at home off a road game in which they scored first.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Philadelphia at Washington (4:05 p.m. ET)

-- The Nationals are 0-9 OU (-2.22 ppg) since Aug. 1, 2015 when Joe Ross starts as an underdog when they lost his last two starts.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)