Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/29

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, July 29

Good Luck on day #210 of 2021!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Major league leaders in RBI:
82— Rafael Devers, Bos
81— Shohei Ohtani, LAA
80— Vladimir Guerrero, Tor
75— Jesus Aguilar/Jose Abreu
71— Austin Meadows, Manny Machado
69— Fernando Tatis

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) Baseball needs to market itself better; they need an NFL Films-type group to go behind the scenes of front offices and locker rooms to show us what happens during spring training, at the trade deadline, before/during the amateur draft.

MLB’s leaders are arrogant/entitled; they need to sell the game to younger people, and the way to do it is to show us how interesting a business it is, both on and off the field, you know, the way the NFL does.

Tuesday night around 6:30, they announced the Phillies were acquiring P Tyler Anderson from Pittsburgh, for two minor leaguers. 90 minutes later, the trade was off; one of minor leaguers failed his physical. Around 10pm, Anderson was traded to Seattle for two other prospects.

Would be great TV to hear how those phone calls went down, to see how the GM’s reacted when their trade fell apart, and when the new trade was put together.

Baseball needs to do this; they need to promote their sport better.

12) Houston-Seattle made a trade late Monday/early Tuesday; the thing is, Astros were in Seattle at the time- they blew a 6-0 first inning lead and lost 11-8 to the Mariners Monday night.

Seattle traded its closer to Houston, which is weird, seeing how the Mariners are very hot and are playoff contenders. Mariners’ GM Jerry DiPoto says there will be other trades that will make the first trade understandable.

Once again, this would’ve been great TV, to see everyone’s reactions.

Tuesday night, Abraham Toro, traded by the Astros to Seattle that morning, hit a home run against Houston in the last inning; quite a moment. Would’ve been good TV to see how his new teammates greeted him and how he reacted after the game.

Toro homered again Wednesday, by the way.

11) Oakland A’s pulled the trigger on a big trade; they acquired Starling Marte for Jesus Luzardo; Marte is a free agent in two months, Luzardo is a young pitcher who broke his hand punching something during a clubhouse video game back in May.

I had been wondering if the A’s brass was ticked off with Luzardo; his rehab starts haven’t gone that smoothly, but they were in the PCL, mostly at high altitude. His injury put the A’s in a bad spot; good starting pitchers are obviously hard to find.

A’s started this season 1-6, then went on a 44-24 run, before slumping to 11-16 in their last 27 games- they beat San Diego 10-4 Wednesday, after the deal was announced. Sometimes making a deal loosens everyone up, shows that the front office is behind the team. Hopefully this is one of those times.

10) Detroit 17, Minnesota 14:
— Twins homered 7 times, Detroit didn’t homer, but they won.
— All nine Tiger starters got a hit, scored a run, knocked in a run.

Tuesday’s Detroit-Minnesota game was first time in MLB history both catchers hit a grand slam in the same game.

9) San Diego starting pitchers have lasted 5+ innings in only 57 of 104 games. Blake Snell has lasted five innings in only 8 of 18 starts.

8) Odd Stat of the Day: Tampa Bay leads MLB in this category; 49.2% of their home runs have come with at least one man on base, highest %age in MLB.

7) Pittsburgh 2B Rodolfo Castro is 5-21 this year, with five home runs; he is the first major leaguer in over 100 years whose first five hits were all home runs.

Speaking from personal experience, this is a sad week to be a Pirate fan; you trade two of your best players for prospects. If those prospects become really good players, you realize those guys will eventually get sold down the river, too.

Being a fan is fun when your team wins, disappointing when they lose, but when they don’t even TRY to win, it is depressing/annoying. Thats what’s going on in Pittsburgh now.

6) Four Washington National players, eight staffers tested positive for COVID Wednesday; they postponed Wednesday’s game to today, as part of a doubleheader.

5) This is how much baseball has changed since I was a kid:

In 1973 and 1974, Nolan Ryan threw 26 complete games, that’s 52 complete games in two years.

Today, there is no active big league pitcher with more than 26 career complete games, Justin Verlander and Adam Wainwright.

4) Can any NFL team trade for Deshaun Watson? What would the public relations fallout be? What would they have to give up, for a young man who may/may not have a lot of legal issues in front of him? Watson is a good young QB; the Texans have a hard decision to make.

Watson is at training camp; it would cost him $50,000 a day if he wasn’t there, but he isn’t practicing with the first team.

3) College football trend; under Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M is 15-6 ATS as a favorite.

2) Not many movies were made during the pandemic, so actors are getting creative to rake in some cash; is odd seeing Liev Schreiber doing a mattress commercial these days.

1) NBA Draft is tonight; Oklahoma City/Houston both have three first round picks.

[Udog]

951ATLANTA -952 NY METS
NY METS are 7-17 SU (-12.1 Units) vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game in the current season.

953WASHINGTON -954 PHILADELPHIA
WASHINGTON is 14-25 SU (-15.8 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.

955CINCINNATI -956 CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-19 SU (15.2 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

957LA DODGERS -958 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 40-17 SU (26 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

959MILWAUKEE -960 PITTSBURGH
MILWAUKEE is 10-0 SU (10 Units) in road games when the total is 8 to 8.5 in the current season.

961COLORADO -962 SAN DIEGO
COLORADO is 15-24 SU (-18.3 Units) in road games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the current season.

963NY YANKEES -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 32-14 SU (19.1 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) in the current season.

965CHI WHITE SOX -966 KANSAS CITY
CHI WHITE SOX is 35-20 SU (20.1 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.

967BALTIMORE -968 DETROIT
DETROIT is 14-3 SU (14.8 Units) in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

969TORONTO -970 BOSTON
BOSTON is 7-20 SU (-15 Units) after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals in the last 3 seasons.

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, July 29

[Udog]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 29

NL games
Washington (46-54) @ Philadelphia (50-50)
— Corbin is 1-4, 7.24 in his last five starts.
— Nationals are 9-10 in his starts.
— over 10-9
— allowed run in first inning: 9-19
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9-3
— He is 6-3, 3.01 in 12 starts vs Philly.

— They haven’t named starter for Game 2.

— Nationals had 4 players test positive for COVID yesterday.
— Washington is 4-11 in its last 15 games.
— Nationals lost 8 of last 9 road games.
— under 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 33-99
— record in first 5 innings: 41-39-19

— Wheeler is 3-1, 3.24 in his last five starts.
— Phillies are 12-8 in his starts.
— under 7-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 7-7-6
— He is 0-2, 3.86 in three starts vs Washington this year.

— Velasquez is 0-3, 10.91 in his last four starts.
— Phillies are 8-8 in his starts.
— over 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-3
— He is 0-0, 7.56 in two starts vs Washington this year.

— Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games.
— Phillies are 30-20 at home, 20-30 on road.
— over 15-4 last 19 games.
— scored run in first inning: 34-100
— record in first 5 innings: 39-39-22

Atlanta (50-52) @ Mets (54-46)
— Smyly is 5-0, 2.19 in his last seven starts.
— Braves are 7-1 in his last eight starts.
— over 12-5
— allowed run in first inning: 3-17
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 11-4-2
— He’s thrown 7.2 scoreless IP in 2 games (1 start) vs New York.

— Braves are 6-8 in their last 14 games
— Atlanta is 7-5 in its last 12 road games.
— under 5-2 last seven games.
— scored run in first inning: 37-102
— record in first 5 innings: 52-37-13

— Walker allowed 12 runs in 4.1 IP in his last two starts.
— Mets are 14-4 in his starts.
— over 7-3 last ten
— allowed run in first inning: 3-18
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-2
— He is 1-0, 0.00 in two starts (8 IP) vs Atlanta this year.

— Mets are 19-21 in their last 40 games.
— Mets are 11-8 in their last 19 home games.
— under 7-2 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-100
— record in first 5 innings: 45-43-12

Cincinnati (53-49) @ Cubs (50-53)
— Castillo is 2-0, 1.16 in his last six starts.
— Reds are 6-4 in his last ten starts.
— under 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 0 of last 8
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-2
— He is 0-2, 5.91 in two starts vs Chicago this year.

— Cincinnati is 5-7 in its last 12 games.
— Reds are 8-3 in last 11 road games.
— under 6-3-1 last ten road games
— scored run in first inning: 30-102
— record in first 5 innings: 44-42-16

— Mills is 1-2, 5.31 in his last four starts.
— Cubs are 3-5 in his starts.
— under 6-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-8
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-2
— He is 3-1, 3.66 in 9 games (6 starts) vs Cincinnati.

— Cubs are 8-20 in last 28 games.
— Chicago is 7-10 in its last 17 home games.
— Over is 8-3-1 in last 12 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-103
— record in first 5 innings: 43-47-13

Dodgers (62-41) @ San Francisco (63-38)
— Price is 0-0, 2.84 in six starts (19 IP).
— Dodgers are 2-4 in his starts.
— 74 pitches is most he’s thrown in game this year.
— under 5-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-6
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
— He is 0-2, 2.45 in 5 games (4 starts) vs San Francisco.

— Dodgers are 4-6 in last ten games.
— Dodgers are 4-5 in last nine road games.
— under 6-4-1 last 11 home games
— scored run in first inning: 33-103
— record in first 5 innings: 54-32-17

— Cueto is 0-2, 5.57 in his last four starts.
— Giants are 2-6 in his last eight starts.
— under 7-2 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 6-8-2
— He is 8-9, 3.92 in 23 starts vs LA.

— Giants are 6-6 since All-Star break.
— Giants are 16-8 in last 24 home games.
— Over is 11-6 in last 17 home games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-101
— record in first 5 innings: 54-34-13 starts.

Milwaukee (60-42) @ Pittsburgh (38-63)
— Peralta is 1-1, 2.33 in his last five starts.
— He was taken out of last start after 4 innings, 51 PT
— Milwaukee is 12-6 in his starts.
— under 6-3 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 3-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-4-4
— He is 0-1, 4.09 in two starts vs Pittsburgh this year.

— Brewers are 7-3 in last ten games.
— Milwaukee won last six road games.
— over 5-1-1 last seven road games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-102
— record in first 5 innings: 49-34-19

— Kuhl is 1-0, 2.76 in his last three starts.
— Pittsburgh is 8-5 in his starts.
— over 9-4
— allowed run in first inning: 5-13
— record in first 5 innings: 7-3-3
— He is 0-1, 9.72 in two starts vs Milwaukee this year.

— Pirates lost seven of last nine games.
— Pittsburgh is 5-4 in last nine home games.
— over 15-6-1 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-100
— record in first 5 innings: 32-56-12

Colorado (44-58) @ San Diego (59-45)
— Freeland is 0-3, 3.38 in his last three starts.
— Rockies are 4-7 in his starts.
— under 9-2
— allowed run in first inning: 4-11
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 3-5-3
— He is 0-1, 7.72 in two starts vs San Diego this year.

— Colorado is 19-17 in its last 36 games.
— Rockies are 33-20 at home, 11-38 on road.
— under 17-7 last 24 games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-102
— record in first 5 innings: 39-47-16

— Musgrove is 1-1, 4.70 in his last three starts.
— Padres are 10-9 in his starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9-2
— He is 1-1, 1.59 in two starts vs Colorado this year.

— Padres are 6-5 in their last 11 games.
— San Diego is 6-6 in last 12 home games.
— under 5-4 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 31-104
— record in first 5 innings: 41-45-17

AL games
Bronx (53-47) @ Tampa Bay (60-42)
— Cole is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three starts.
— New York is 10-10 in his starts.
— under 9-7 last 16
— allowed run in first inning: 4-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-5-5
— He is 1-2, 3.26 in three starts vs Tampa Bay this year.

— New York is 12-5 in last 17 games.
— New York is 10-8 in last 18 road games.
— under 9-1 last ten road games
— scored run in first inning: 24-100
— record in first 5 innings: 42-38-20

— Patino is 0-2, 7.40 in five starts.
— Rays are 2-3 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 1-4
— He gave up 2 runs in 4 IP, in May 11 start vs New York.

— Tampa Bay won 13 of its last 19 games.
— Rays are 11-5 in last 16 home tilts.
— under is 7-2 last nine home games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-102
— record in first 5 innings: 39-38-25

Toronto (50-48) @ Boston (63-40)
— Ryu is 2-0, 2.20 in his last three starts.
— Toronto is 12-7 in his starts.
— over 8-3 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 11-7-1
— He is 1-1, 3.00 in two starts vs Boston this year.

— Toronto lost six of last eight games.
— Blue Jays are 3-8 in last 11 road games.
— Under is 5-1 in last six games.
— scored run in first inning: 30-98
— record in first 5 innings: 7-10 last 17 on road

— Rodriguez is 2-1, 2.66 in his last five starts.
— He left his last start after an inning with a migraine.
— Boston is 8-1 in his last nine starts.
— under 3-0-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-2
— He is 1-1, 5.73 in two starts vs Toronto this year.

— Boston won seven of its last nine games.
— Red Sox are 14-4 in last 18 home games.
— under 7-1 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 35-103
— record in first 5 innings: 48-40-15

White Sox (60-42) @ Kansas City (44-56)
— Rodon is 2-1, 2.65 in his last three starts.
— Chicago is 11-6 in his starts.
— under 10-3-1 last 14
— allowed run in first inning: 3-17
— record in first 5 innings: 7-5-5
— He is 1-1, 3.09 in two starts vs Kansas City this year.

— Chicago lost five of last seven games.
— White Sox are 7-4 in last 11 road games.
— over 11-7-1 last 19 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-102
— record in first 5 innings: 55-31-16

— Hernandez is 0-1, 9.45 in two starts.
— Kansas City is 1-1 in his starts.
— over 1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2
— He gave up 3 runs in 3 IP, in two relief stints vs Chicago.

— Royals won seven of last eight games.
— Royals are 9-6 in last 15 home games.
— under 7-1-1 last nine games.
— scores run in first inning: 20-100
— record in first 5 innings: 37-50-13

Baltimore (35-65) @ Detroit (49-55)
— Wells allowed 3 runs in 5.2 IP (93 PT) in his first start.
— Orioles are 0-1 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
— He isn’t pitched against Detroit.

— Orioles are 7-3 in last ten games.
— Baltimore is 18-34 on road, 17-31 at home.
— over is 43-20-1 in their last 64 games.
— scored run in first inning: 33-101
— record in first 5 innings: 33-52-16

— Mize is 0-1, 4.91 in his last four starts.
— Tigers are 11-8 in his starts.
— over 3-0-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Baltimore.

— Detroit lost four of last six games.
— Detroit won last nine home games.
— over 28-15-1 last 44 games
— scored run in first inning: 22-104
— record in first 5 innings: 8-0-1 last nine at home.

Oakland (57-46) @ Angels (51-50)
— Montas is 1-1, 3.07 in his last five starts.
— A’s are 1-5 in his last six starts.
— under 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-4
— He is 1-1, 4.26 in two starts vs Anaheim this year.

— A’s lost four of last five games.
— Oakland is 6-7 in last 13 road games.
— Under is 18-10 in their last 28 games.
— scored run in first inning: 31-103
— record in first 5 innings: 44-39-20

— Cobb is 2-0, 2.19 in his last four starts.
— He left his last start with a blister issue.
— Angels are 10-5 in his starts.
— over 10-5
— allowed run in first inning: 2-15
— record in first 5 innings: 10-4-1
— He is 5-3, 1.96 in 11 starts vs Oakland.

— Halos are 13-9 in last 22 games.
— Angels are 8-4 in last 12 home games.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 34-101
— record in first 5 innings: 45-43-13

[Udog]

MLB

Thursday, July 29

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Trend Report
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Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Philadelphia's last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Washington

Atlanta @ NY Mets
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 5 games at home

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees

Chi White Sox @ Kansas City
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

Cincinnati @ Chi Cubs
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 12 games at home
Chi Cubs is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games

Washington @ Philadelphia
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Philadelphia's last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Washington

LA Dodgers @ San Francisco
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
San Francisco is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home

Milwaukee @ Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Pittsburgh's last 23 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games

Toronto @ Boston
Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games on the road
Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games

Baltimore @ Detroit
Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Oakland @ LA Angels
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Angels
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Angels
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
LA Angels is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Colorado @ San Diego
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Colorado is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Colorado
San Diego is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Colorado


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[Udog]

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, July 29

[Udog]

Diamond Trends for Thursday July 29
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: L.A. Dodgers at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. ET)

-- The Giants are 13-0 SU since Sept. 20, 2020 after they didn't score after the third inning last game.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockies are 0-10 SU since Sept. 22, 2020 on the road off a game as an underdog in which they scored at least six runs.

OU Trend of the Day
Matchup: Oakland at L.A. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)

-- The A's are 0-9 OU (-2.94 ppg) since Jun. 2, 2021 on the road off a road game win which theur bullpen allowed multiple runs.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Colorado at San Diego (10:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Rockies are 0-12 OU (-3.58 ppg) since Sept. 30, 2018 when Kyle Freeland starts after he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 in his last start.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)