Announcement

**Udog** · 05-13-2021, 08:48 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds to win the Byron Nelson golf tournament:
7-1— Bryson DeChambeau
17-2— Jon Rahm
10-1— Jordan Spieth
14-1— Daniel Berger
16-1— Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama
18-1— Matthew Fitzpatrick

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 582,771
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Quick thoughts on the 2021 NFL schedule

I’ll have more on the NFL schedule over the next few days, but here are some early thoughts on the 2021 schedule:

— NFL teams will play 17 games this season for the first time; exhibition games have been reduced to three. AFC teams get the extra home game this season.

— Regular season ends January 9th, with games in Buffalo and Cleveland. Have fun!!!

— Jets traded QB Sam Darnold to Carolina this winter; the wise guys who create the schedule created an interesting Week 1 matchup, Jets @ Carolina. Go figure, a coincidence I’m sure.

— Christmas is on a Saturday, Halloween is a Sunday this year; there are two Christmas games. Browns-Packers, Colts-Cardinals. Which casino will I be watching those games in?

— This has nothing to do with football, but Halloween weekend in Las Vegas is tremendous, take my word on that.

— Cowboys-Buccaneers is the Week 1 Thursday game, where the defending champ traditionally opens the next season at home. Home team is 15-3 SU in this game the last 18 years, 11-3-4 against the spread.

— Don’t think the NFL foresees Aaron Rodgers being traded to Denver; Broncos have one game on in prime-time, Green Bay has five.

— NFL doesn’t think much of the Patriots; only three primetime games, one of which is Tom Brady’s return to Foxboro in Week 4.

— Thanksgiving Day slate:
Bears @ Detroit, Raiders @ Dallas, Bills @ New Orleans

— Non-schedule news; Green Bay signed backup QB Blake Bortles, re-uniting him with OC Nathaniel Hackett- they worked together in Jacksonville from 2015-18.

— Division rivals Carolina/Tampa Bay have their two meetings in weeks 16/18.

— I’m totally befuddled that Rams-Lions isn’t a primetime game. Detroit got one game on in primetime, at Green Bay in Week 2. Very surprised by this, seeing how the teams swapped quarterbacks this winter. ESPN obviously didn’t want the game.

Every team got at least one primetime game; eight teams got just one.

— Four teams have the earliest byes, Week 6— Falcons, Saints, Jets, 49ers.

— Four teams have the latest byes, Week 14— Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Eagles.

— Nine teams got the maximum five primetime games.

— Cardinals/Chargers have three prime-time games, all at home, which is odd. Giants got three primetime games, all on the road— they can’t be real happy about that.

**Udog** · 05-13-2021, 08:50 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, May 13

**Udog** · 05-13-2021, 08:52 AM

951PHILADELPHIA -952 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 19-30 SU (-19.2 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

953ST LOUIS -954 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 16-32 SU (-19.9 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

955SAN FRANCISCO -956 PITTSBURGH
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-11 SU (12.2 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

957CINCINNATI -958 COLORADO
CINCINNATI is 0-10 SU (-11.3 Units) vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities in the current season.

959MIAMI -960 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 9-2 SU (10.6 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.

961KANSAS CITY -962 DETROIT
DETROIT is 5-14 SU (-13.4 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the current season.

963MINNESOTA -964 CHI WHITE SOX
MINNESOTA is 4-16 SU (-14.6 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the current season.

965OAKLAND -966 BOSTON
OAKLAND is 4-14 SU (-13.2 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.

967NY YANKEES -968 TAMPA BAY
NY YANKEES are 96-71 SU (17.9 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

969TEXAS -970 HOUSTON
TEXAS are 17-6 SU (11.1 Units) vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the current season.

**Udog** · 05-13-2021, 08:55 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, May 13

**Udog** · 05-13-2021, 08:57 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, May 13

NL games
Philadelphia (20-17) @ Washington (13-19)
— Eflin is 1-1, 5.12 in three road starts.
— Phillies are 4-3 in his starts
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1-2
— He is 4-3, 4.26 in nine starts vs Washington.

— Phillies won seven of their last nine games.
— Phillies are 7-11 on the road.
— under 9-4 last 13 road games.
— scored run in first inning: 17-37
— record in first 5 innings: 14-14-9

— Corbin is 1-1, 3.52 in his last four starts.
— Washington is 3-3 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 3-6
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-2
— He is 5-3, 3.19 in 11 starts vs Philly.

— Washington lost seven of its last eight games.
— Nationals lost their last five home games.
— under 9-2 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 7-32
— record in first 5 innings: 8-15-9

St Louis (22-15) @ Milwaukee (20-17)
— Flaherty is 6-0, 2.43 in his last six starts
— Cardinals are 7-0 in his starts.
— over 4-1-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 6-0-1
— He is 2-6, 5.72 in 12 starts vs Milwaukee.

— Cardinals won 14 of their last 19 games.
— St Louis is 9-5 in its last 14 road games.
— Under 6-3-1 last ten games.
— scored run in first inning: 11-37
— record in first 5 innings: 18-12-7

— Burnes was 2-2, 1.84 in five starts before his IL stint.
— Milwaukee is 2-3 in his starts.
— under 3-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-1
— He is 1-2, 4.91 in eight games (5 starts) vs St Louis.

— Brewers lost seven of their last ten games.
— Milwaukee is 9-9 at home.
— over 4-3-1 last eight home games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-37
— record in first 5 innings: 15-14-8

San Francisco (22-14) @ Pittsburgh (15-21)
— DeSclafani is 2-1, 2.40 in seven starts.
— Giants are 4-3 in his starts.
— over 4-0 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 4-2-1
— He is 2-7, 5.44 in 16 starts vs Pittsburgh.

— Giants won six of their last nine games.
— Giants are 2-5 in last seven road games.
— Over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 games.
— scored run in first inning: 9-36
— record in first 5 innings: 20-11-5

— Crowe is 0-1, 3.38 in three starts.
— Pirates are 1-2 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against San Francisco

— Pirates lost 10 of their last 13 games.
— Pittsburgh lost six of its last seven home games.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 9-36
— record in first 5 innings: 14-16-6

Cincinnati (17-17) @ Colorado (13-24)
— Miley is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three starts.
— He threw a no-hitter in his last start.
— Reds are 4-2 in his starts.
— over 3-3
— allowed run in first inning: 3-6
— you’re reading ***************.com
— record in first 5 innings: 3-2-1
— He is 8-2, 3.73 in 14 starts vs Colorado.

— Cincinnati is 8-5 in its last 13 games.
— Reds are 7-10 on road.
— Over 14-6-2 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 8-34
— record in first 5 innings: 13-15-6

— Gonzalez is 0-1, 6.08 in five starts.
— Colorado is 1-4 in his starts.
— over 3-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-5
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3
— He allowed three runs in 5.2 IP in his one start vs Cincinnati.

— Colorado is 4-10 in its last 14 games.
— Rockies are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.
— over 7-2 last nine home games.
— scored run in first inning: 12-37
— record in first 5 innings: 13-18-6

Miami (16-20) @ Arizona (17-20)
— Rogers is 4-1, 1.59 in his last six starts.
— Miami is 4-3 in his starts.
— under 4-3
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 5-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Arizona.

— Marlins lost three of their last four games.
— Miami is 2-6 in their last eight road tilts.
— under 6-2-2 in their last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 13-36
— record in first 5 innings: 13-16-7

— Kelly is 1-1, 3.63 in his last four starts.
— Arizona is 4-3 in his starts
— under 4-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-4
— He hasn’t pitched against Miami.
— He gave up 7 runs in six IP, in one start vs Miami.

— Arizona lost eight of its last 11 games.
— Arizona is 6-3 in its last nine home games.
— over 5-3 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 7-37
— record in first 5 innings: 18-17-2

AL games
Bronx (20-16) @ Tampa Bay (19-19)
— Taillon is 1-1, 3.98 in his last four starts.
— New York is 2-4 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-6
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3-2
— He threw 6.1 scoreless innings in his one start vs Tampa Bay.

— New York won 15 of its last 21 games.
— New York is 7-3 in its last ten road games.
— under 15-7 last 22 games
— scored run in first inning: 6-36
— record in first 5 innings: 17-12-7

— Hill is 0-1, 4.22 in his last five starts (21.2 IP).
— Rays are 3-4 in his starts.
— over 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 02-2-3
— He is 2-2, 5.06 in 12 games (4 starts) vs New York.

— Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games.
— Rays are 3-7 in last ten home games.
— 12 of last 18 games stayed under
— scored run in first inning: 9-38
— record in first 5 innings: 12-15-11

Kansas City (16-19) @ Detroit (12-24)
— Lynch gave up 11 runs in five IP in his first two starts.
— Royals are 0-2 in his starts.
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Detroit.

— Royals lost their last ten games overall.
— Royals are 7-5 in last 12 road games.
— 10 of last 13 games went over
— scores run in first inning: 7-35
— record in first 5 innings: 14-16-5

— Turnbull is 0-2, 7.07 in his last three starts.
— Detroit is 1-3 in his starts.
— over 3-1 in his starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He is 0-3, 3.46 in seven starts vs Kansas City.

— Detroit lost 18 of its last 24 games.
— Detroit is 5-8 in its last 13 home games.
— under 11-6 at home
— scored run in first inning: 6-36
— record in first 5 innings: 4-16-3 last 23 games

Oakland (23-15) @ Boston (22-16)
— Manaea is 3-0, 2.23 in his last six starts.
— A’s are 6-1 in his starts.
— over 4-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1-3
— He is 3-2, 6.84 in five starts vs Boston.

— A’s are 4-1 in their last five games.
— Oakland is 10-4 on the road.
— Under is 6-0 in their last six road games.
— scored run in first inning: 10-38
— record in first 5 innings: 15-13-10

— Richards is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
— Red Sox are 3-4 in his starts.
— under 4-1 last five starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-7
— record in first 5 innings: 2-3-2
— He is 3-4, 4.29 in 18 games (14 starts) vs Oakland.

— Boston lost its last three games.
— Red Sox are 10-8 in last 18 home games.
— over 6-3 last nine home games
— scored run in first inning: 11-38
— record in first 5 innings: 16-14-8

Texas (18-20) @ Houston (20-17)
— Foltynewicz is 1-0, 3.44 in his last three starts.
— Rangers are 3-4 in his starts.
— under 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 1-5-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Houston.

— Texas won eight of its last 13 games.
— Texas won three of its last five road games.
— under 4-0 last five road games.
— scored run in first inning: 10-38
— record in first 5 innings: 13-19-6

— Javier is 3-1, 2.01 in four home starts.
— Astros are 4-2 in his starts.
— over 4-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-6
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1-1
— He is 2-0, 2.92 in two starts vs Texas.

— Astros won five of their last seven games.
— Astros are 9-5 in last 14 home games.
— over 8-4 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 10-37
— record in first 5 innings: 18-13-6

Minnesota (12-22) @ White Sox (21-13)
— Pineda is 2-1, 2.97 in six starts.
— Twins are 3-3 in his starts.
— under 3-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-6
— record in first 5 innings: 4-1-1
— He is 5-3, 3.21 in nine starts vs Chicago.

— Twins lost 20 of their last 27 games.
— Minnesota is 2-9 in last 11 road games.
— over 11-2 last 13 games
— scores run in first inning: 14-34
— record in first 5 innings: 14-12-8

— Lynn is 3-1, 1.80 in his last four starts
— Chicago is 3-2 in his starts.
— under 3-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-5
— record in first 5 innings: 4-0-1
— He gave up 3 runs in five IP, in his one start vs Minnesota.

— Chicago is 9-4 in its last 13 games.
— White Sox are 8-3 in last 11 home games.
— over 5-1-1 last seven home games.
— scored run in first inning: 10-34
— record in first 5 innings: 23-4-7

Cleveland (20-14) @ Seattle (18-18)
— Plesac is 1-0, 1.27 in his last three starts.
— Cubs are 3-4 in his starts.
— under 4-2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 2-4-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

— Cleveland won 12 of its last 15 games.
— Indians won their last five road games.
— over 12-7-1 last 20 games
— scores run in first inning: 7-34
— record in first 5 innings: 11-17-6

— Gilbert makes his MLB debut here.

— Seattle is 3-7 in its last ten games.
— Seattle is 7-5 in its last dozen home games.
— over 4-0-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 9-37
— record in first 5 innings: 14-19-4

Interleague games
Toronto (19-16) @ Atlanta (17-19)
— Stripling is 0-2, 6.75 in four starts.
— Blue Jays are 1-3 in his starts.
— under 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3
— He is 1-1, 4.50 in seven games (4 starts) vs Atlanta.

— Toronto is 11-6 in its last 17 games.
— Toronto is 8-5 in last 13 road games.
— over 10-4 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 10-35
— record in first 5 innings: 13-18-4

— Morton is 1-1, 8.22 in his last five starts.
— Braves are 2-5 in his starts.
— over 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-1
— He is 2-2, 3.83 in eight starts vs Toronto.

— Braves won five of their last eight games.
— Atlanta is 2-4 in last six home games.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 12-36
— record in first 5 innings: 17-14-5

Thursday’s umpires:
Phil-Wsh: Over is 4-2 in Nelson games.
StL-Mil: Over is 3-1 in Tichenor games.
Mia-Ariz: Rookie ump Williams has no history

KC-Det: Over is 6-0-1 in Moscoso games.
NY-TB: Under is 5-2 in Eddings games.
A’s-Bos: Under is 4-2 in last six Reyburn games.
Min-CWS: Home side won last four Carlson games.

Tor-Atl: Underdogs won three of four Barry games.

**Udog** · 05-13-2021, 09:00 AM

MLB

Thursday, May 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto @ Atlanta
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games

Philadelphia @ Washington
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games

Kansas City @ Detroit
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City's last 11 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 11 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing Kansas City

St. Louis @ Milwaukee
St. Louis
St. Louis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

Minnesota @ Chi White Sox
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Minnesota's last 13 games
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Chi White Sox is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

San Francisco @ Pittsburgh
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco

Oakland @ Boston
Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games
Boston is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Oakland

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees

Texas @ Houston
Texas
Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Texas's last 11 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston
Houston is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games when playing at home against Texas

Cincinnati @ Colorado
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 10 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games at home

Miami @ Arizona
Miami
Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Arizona
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami

Cleveland @ Seattle
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Seattle
Seattle is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 05-13-2021, 10:59 AM

Diamond Trends for Thursday May 13
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Cleveland at Seattle (10:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Indians are 10-0 SU since Jul 28, 2020 as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which their opponent left 18+ men on base individually.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: N.Y. Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Yankees are 0-9 SU since Jul 25, 2020 on the road off a game as a favorite in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base individually.

OU Play Trend of the Day
Matchup: Toronto at Atlanta (12:20 p.m. ET)

-- The Braves are 14-0 OU (5.21 ppg) since Sep 24, 2019 as a -140 or greater favorite off a game as a favorite in which they had more strikeouts than hits.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day
Matchup: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. ET)

-- The Twins are 7-0 SU since May 16, 2019 when Michael Pineda starts when they lost in his last start.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

Announcement

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 5/13

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 5/13

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment