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**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:10 PM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds for the Texas Open this week:
11-1— Jordan Spieth
14-1— Tony Finau
15-1— Scott Scheffler
19-1— Abraham Ancer, Hideki Matsuyama
21-1— Corey Connors
30-1— Ryan Palmer

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 550,903
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Random thoughts on Opening Day

Before we start, happy birthday to my grandmother; today was her birthday. Very nice lady. Not sure April 1 is a great day for a birthday.

13) Will be fun to see fans in the stands; hopefully by the end of this season, stands will be full again, but for now, hearing real people cheer will be enough. Cardboard cutouts are cool, but they don’t make any noise.

For the record, the best cardboard cutout last year was the one in Kansas City of Bernie Lomax, the main character from the Weekend at Bernie’s movies.

12) Houston Astros made the expanded playoffs LY, despite a 29-31 record; how will they bounce back this year? They won the 2017 World Series, lost the ’19 Series in seven games; this year they’ll be without Verlander (hurt), Springer (free agent to Toronto).

Last year, Jose Altuve hit .219 in the regular season, then hit 18-48 (.375) in playoffs, so we’ll see what this year brings.

11) Baseball has done a very smart thing, letting players watch video of their at-bats on iPads during the game. Players couldn’t do that last year- from what you hear on TV, it hampered some hitters, who are creatures of habit. Baseball wants more offense, right?

10) Los Angeles Dodgers are loaded; they won World Series LY for first time since 1988, and appear to be headed that way again this year, especially after adding pitching ace Trevor Bauer as a free agent.

Their TV guys have been fairly cocky this spring; on how many teams would David Price or Tony Gonsolin not be in the starting rotation?

9) Seattle and the Angels are two teams that will apparently use 6-man pitching rotations this season, somehow new to MLB. Teams in Japan do this; starters generally pitch once a week.

Teams are guarding against ramping up a pitcher’s innings too much from one year to the next; for instance, Seattle’s Marco Gonzales threw 69.1 IP LY; he threw 203 the year before. Doubtful they want him ramping back up to 203 until next season.

8) Steve Cohen is the new owner of the Mets; supposedly, Bobby Axelrod on Showtime’s Billions was modeled after Cohen, a wildly successful hedge fund trader. In other words, he is really, really rich.

Cohen’s Mets offered newly-acquired SS Francisco Lindor $320M for 10 years; Lindor’s people are asking for 12 years, $385M. We’ll see how that works out.

LATE UPDATE: Here’s how it worked out: Lindor signed a 10-year deal for $341M Wednesday night.

7) Umpire Ángel Hernández lost his lawsuit against MLB alleging racial discrimination; hired as a big league umpire in 1993, the Cuban-born Hernandez alleged he was discriminated against because he had not been assigned to the World Series since 2005 and had been passed over for crew chief.

From the judge who decided the case:
“The explicit reason MLB offers — that according to (Joe) Torre, Hernández ‘has not demonstrated the leadership ability and situation-management skills in critical high-pressure roles on a consistent basis’ — is presented in clear and specific terms.”

In other words, Hernandez should be glad he has a lucrative job that he doesn’t do very well.

6) Colorado Rockies traded star 3B Nolan Arenado to St Louis, and with SS Trevor Story headed for free agency, he could be the next to leave Denver, which can’t make fans in Denver happy.

Are the Rockies headed for a total rebuild? Colorado won 87-91 games in 2017/’18, but now they’re looking like a doormat.

5) Can Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge stay healthy this season?
— Last two years, Stanton played a total of 41 regular season games.
— Last three years, Judge played 112-102-28 games.
— Stanton went 8-26 with six homers in seven playoff games LY; they need him for six months, not seven games.

4) Angels have lot of hitting, lot of star power; Trout, Pujols, Rendon, Ohtani, but pitching is important in baseball and the Angels don’t have much of that.

In 12 games as a major league pitcher, Ohtani has given up 26 runs in 53.1 IP; there is very little evidence that he’ll be a good major league pitcher.

3) Lot of hype around the Padres/White Sox; there is no doubt that 76-year Tony LaRussa’s return to the dugout will be fascinating to follow in Chicago.

LaRussa hasn’t managed since 2011; he’s won three World Series as a skipper, but the world is a different place than it was 10 years ago. He did a dugout interview during a spring training game a few days ago and it…….um…….didn’t go well.

Random LaRussa trivia; he pinch-hit for the A’s in their first-ever home game in Oakland, way back in 1968.

2) Baseball needs the universal DH, for a few reasons:
— They want more scoring; pitchers can’t hit
— They want more balls in play; DH’s put balls in play
— Pitchers get hurt hitting/running the bases. Not good.

1) I’ll be looking at how the new experimental rules work once the minor leagues get rolling in May; I like the anti-shifting rules, the pitch-clock thing isn’t necessary. The 3-batter minimum for relievers is a great rule.

I can’t stand the extra inning rules or 7-inning doubleheaders. Media guys like shorter extra innings, since it makes their job easier, but to me it cheapens the game.

As for the automated strike zone, no thank you!!! Just let umpires do their jobs, and hire better umpires than Angel Hernandez.

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:11 PM

AL East Betting Odds
Matt Blunt

2021 AL East Division Odds

New York Yankees -200
Tampa Bay Rays +350
Toronto Blue Jays +350
Boston Red Sox +2000
Baltimore Orioles +5200

There are a few interesting things about the prices offered for the AL East division as a -200 price tag on the Yankees does make it feel somewhat like a foregone conclusion. But as you'll see with the win totals numbers for Toronto (86.5), Tampa Bay (85.5) and Boston (80.5), I'm not sure the price gap between the Red Sox and the Rays and Blue Jays makes the most sense.

However, I've been generally higher than market on Boston the past two seasons with an awful success rate, so it's hard to decide if there is even anything to do with these prices on the basis of that thought. The AL East should be the Yankees to lose, and even with these division futures prices, it may be best to wait regardless.

Unless New York comes out of the gate stinking up the joint and one of Tampa/Toronto starts on fire, chances are the prices on Tampa/Toronto will only grow in their offerings. The Yankees are likely to always be looming at the top of the division all year long, and whomever they are chasing in those scenarios won't have too many cents shaved off these current prices should that be the case in May/June/July etc.

And if the Yankees play front runners the entire way? Any beliefs in the Rays/Jays or even Red Sox will be getting a better payback during that same part of the season.

Still don't see the Yankees losing this division as they've even shown us in recent years that even getting decimated by injuries doesn't seem to slow them down all that much, and over the course of a full season, the talent they've got from top to bottom should pay off. That thought does make it tough to get involved in division prices for the AL East though.

2021 American League Pennant Odds

New York Yankees +230
Tampa Bay Rays +850
Toronto Blue Jays +875
Boston Red Sox +2300
Baltimore Orioles +4000

The Yankees are the overall favorites in the entire American League, so keep that in mind with any Yankees. The last few years we've had one World Series entrant be one of the heavier league favorites (Dodgers in their WS appearances, Houston in there as well) and the other league champion maybe coming from a little further back. The case for the Yankees is definitely there if bettors believe the NL will be the more wide open league in the end, and if the scenario where the Yankees are front runners for most of the year, the price on them won't be getting any cheaper.

Interesting to seemingly get another value on what “playoff experience” could mean with the Rays 25 cents cheaper to repeat as AL Champs over the young Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto's actually got better prices than Tampa in future markets on win totals and playoffs yes/no props, so suggesting that Toronto will figure it out enough to make the playoffs but maybe have a tougher time figuring out how to go on a run does make sense.

Still think that the same thinking applies with the Rays/Jays for the Pennant as it does for the Division, in that waiting until the middle of the year isn't going to hurt anything. Even with one of them sitting in top spot, it means there is quality chasing them elsewhere, and getting through playoff series against those teams still is incorporated.

Tough to advocate for any long shot option on the other two teams, although the Orioles are probably the best of the “worst” (teams expected to finish last in respective divisions), and a flyer on them to go from worst to first and run through the playoffs isn't the worst of the bad options out there.

Playing in front of 35% capacity is something Baltimore's had experience with for years should that be the case for MLB starting the season on time, and they play in a ballpark where if you get the timely “bloop and a blast” often, who knows how many large winning streaks a team can rattle off in a row. Most of that is out on Pipe Dream Island though.

D.J. LeMahieu and the Yankees seek only their second AL East title in the last nine seasons. (AP)

2021 World Series Odds

New York Yankees +550
Tampa Bay Rays +2200
Toronto Blue Jays +2500
Boston Red Sox +5000
Baltimore Orioles +10000

Again the price flip between Toronto and Tampa can be a talking point, because if the Jays quickly figure out how to win the postseason, they are the type of team built to have streaky success like that. Relative to the pressure Tampa would face in each passing round trying to repeat.

Waiting on both still might be the best option though, as thinking Tampa is built like the Dodgers to go the route of winning a title after recently losing one is tough, and if there are multiple playoff series for Toronto this year they'll be a likely underdog in at least one of them. Round by round might be the path to take with Toronto.

This is where it makes the most sense to get heavily involved with the Yankees for those that are so inclined. Any front running season from New York won't have a better price on the Yankees, and most seasons that aren't of that nature have them finding their way into the playoffs in some fashion.

This team has done it all but get to a World Series in recent seasons, and getting there this year when you've got a +550 ticket on the Yankees already in pocket would be a nice feeling.

MLB Win Totals Odds

N.Y. Yankees 95.5
Toronto 86.5
Tampa Bay 85.5
Boston 80.5
Baltimore 64.5

This is the spot where opinions on the Red Sox are going to show up on both sides, as it's not like they don't have some quality pieces still in their uniform. Devers, Bogaerts, Martinez, Renfroe, and Verdugo can produce with the bats just fine relative to the rest of the league, and how improved one believes the Blue Jays to be or how sustainable this version of the Rays is influences those decisions as well.

All three of the win totals in the 80's may be better to avoid in the long term though. Coming down to the final few games of the year for any 'overs' on Tampa Bay, Toronto, or Boston is a sweat that's easily avoidable if you just let those chips fall where they may.

Baltimore 'over' 64.5 is a curious case, because their .417 winning percentage projected out to a full 162-season would have landed them with 67.5 wins a year ago, and who's left to scoop up all those wins if Tampa's play from a year ago isn't sustained, Toronto's not as improved as believed, and Boston's slide is as expected?

The Yankees will get their fair share in that scenario, but so will the Orioles, and they can actually be worse than a year ago with a .401 winning percentage and still get to 65 wins. Intriguing to say the least.

2021 AL East Playoff Props

New York Yankees: Yes -1000; No +600
Tampa Bay Rays: Yes +110; No -137
Toronto Blue Jays: Yes -112; No -112
Boston Red Sox: Yes +275; No -375
Baltimore Orioles: N/A

Not sure any team/price combo is worth serious thought outside of those who are overly high on the Red Sox and believe they'll have their act together from start to finish and cash a +275 “Yes” ticket.

You are likely only rooting for unforeseeable disaster for a Yankees “No” to cash, and with a wide range of results on the spectrum for Tampa and Toronto, the prices on them are going to be close to where they should be regardless of perspective, and not needed to be bothered with.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Aaron Judge (New York) +1200
Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (Toronto) +2500
Gleyber Torres (New York) +2500
Rafael Devers (Boston) +3000
George Springer (Toronto) +3000
Bo Bichette (Toronto) +3300
Xander Bogaerts (Boston) +3300
D.J. LeMahieu (New York) +3300
Giancarlo Stanton (New York) +4000
Randy Arozarena (Tampa Bay) +5000
J.D. Martinez (Boston) +5000
Austin Meadows (Tampa Bay) +5000

One of the three Red Sox players listed here would likely have to be close to a runaway winner should Boston's season be one well through their ceiling with playoffs and division titles accomplished. It's only logical then to add at least one of those names to your portfolio should Boston “yes” on playoffs, 'over' on season wins, or “yes” on Division/Pennant already be in your pocket.

For any of that to happen for the Red Sox they are going to have to ride tremendous play from one of those stars, and Devers being the cheapest one at +3000 is still a nice payday.

What George Springer brings to the Blue Jays is a huge question mark in Toronto this year, as they are hoping for huge things from the former World Series MVP. The last AL MVP to win the award in his first year with a new team just so happened to come with this Toronto organization when Josh Donaldson won it in 2015, and any year that has the Jays with a division crown and/or deep playoff run likely has Springer having a big role in that success.

But if the Yankees go on to win the AL East by 8+ games as the win totals and division odds suggest, personal preference on those names is probably the best place to start.

If the idea that the ball is going to be a little “deader” this year, I think that will hurt the pure power guys more, and emphasize doubles and keeping the lineup churning. Gleyber Torres would be my choice because of where he will sit in the lineup and the likelihood of others around him getting more respect.

But even with all the great names this division has, it all might be a fool's errand in the end. Only two of the last 12 AL MVP's have come from this division, with Donaldson's in 2015 being one, and Mookie Betts' win in 2018. The other two divisions in the American League are tied with five apiece in that same span.

2021 AL East Cy Young Contenders

Gerrit Cole (New York) +350
Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay) +950
Hyun-Jin Ryu (Toronto) +1300
Corey Kluber (New York) +1800
Luis Severino (New York) +3000
Nate Pearson (Toronto) +3300

Nearly all the ballparks in the AL East aren't the best for anyone's Cy Young prospects, but two of the last five winners have come from this division. Again it's Yankees heavy at the top and Kluber already owns two of these awards, while Gerrit Cole probably feels like he's deserved one by now.

Cole, Glasnow, and Ryu are three of the top five in prices overall as something to consider, and any Nate Pearson consideration in this conversation means that backing him for AL ROY at +1500 is probably the better route to go.

Guys can come out of nowhere to win this award though, as someone like Blake Snell did a few years back, although it's tough to see anyone in this division consistently shutdown the bats they are facing most often to beat out similar candidates in other divisions where the offenses aren't so lethal every night.

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:11 PM

AL Central Betting Odds
Matt Blunt

2021 AL Central Division Odds

Chicago White Sox -130
Minnesota Twins +150
Cleveland Indians +700
Kansas City Royals +4000
Detroit Tigers +6000

No 60-game schedule this year means that the random luck aspect of any play on the Royals or Tigers to win the division is completely gone as well, making the AL Central a three-team race tops.

Cleveland selling off some of their best players in the offseason might have many seeing this division as just a two-team race between Chicago and Minnesota, and that does make a lot of sense.

It will be the AL division where pitching and defense will be more influential on a nightly basis then in other divisions, and Cleveland's still a team that's comfortable winning 5-3 type games.

Not sure they'll have enough to get past both Minnesota and Chicago to win the Central, which does leave the door open on the debate between Chicago and Minnesota.

All three of those teams finished within a game of one another in the AL Central standings last year, and it is interesting to see Chicago being the organization expected to sustain it. It was Minnesota who went 101-61 in the 2019 season, and it was the Twins who finished ahead of the other two last year in the shortened campaign.

The three teams also played to near exactly dead even luck last year with the Twins 0, White Sox -1, and Indians 0 in their Pythagorean wins from that 60-game season. 2019 saw Cleveland be a dead even 0 in the luck department again, with Chicago finishing at +3 (off a 72-89 SU record) and Minnesota finishing at +4 (off a 101-61 SU record).

An extra “lucky” win in 2019 for the Twins when they were already nearly 30 games better than Chicago suggests to me that the two-time defending division champs probably should be priced as the favorite.

Grabbing the plus-money with Minnesota is the direction it'd be near impossible to talk me out of for this futures prop.

2021 American League Pennant Odds

Chicago White Sox +380
Minnesota Twins +750
Cleveland Indians +2000
Kansas City Royals +5000
Detroit Tigers +6000

Chicago's really getting plenty of respect in these futures as you'll see with the list of names for the individual awards, as well as other things like win totals and playoff yes/no props that can be rather suggestive in painting a perspective.

The White Sox may have the reigning MVP in Abreu, and six of the top seven AL MVP odds for players from this division this year are White Sox players, but I can't agree with Chicago being the 2nd favorite behind the Yankees in the American League by this wide of a margin. New York's at +230, Chicago's +380, and the next team is Minnesota at +750.

I'm not sure I agree with the Twins being priced as the 3rd favorite either, but that only furthers the argument that neither Chicago nor Minnesota are really on the radar for AL Pennant prices right now.

Kansas City and Detroit would need a season for the ages to get all the way to the World Series, and Detroit's best angle this year is the stated goal to get Miguel Cabrera to 500 HR's and 3,000 hits might make them an 'over' bettor's dream.

Which leaves Cleveland as probably the best value play from this division to represent the American League in the 2021 World Series, although that's still a rather big ask. Cleveland would need a dominant season from their pitching staff the entire way, with timely hitting and health carrying the offensive needs.

The price is right to entertain some Cleveland thoughts, but even with a great year ending in a division title, Cleveland's pitching staff will still have to go through likely AL East and AL West powerhouses who are built to win with the bats. Asking the staff to hold up for multiple series like that and winning 4-3 games is going to be tough.

AL MVP Jose Abreu (R) and the White Sox look for a division title after a playoff appearance in 2020. (AP)

2021 World Series Odds

Chicago White Sox +850
Minnesota Twins +2000
Cleveland Indians +4000
Kansas City Royals +10000
Detroit Tigers +10000

This is where putting White Sox and/or Twins futures in your pocket probably makes the most sense if you want to call it that. Chicago and Minnesota are still priced as the 2nd and 3rd best team in the American League in this market, but that's where they were in the AL Pennant odds as well.

Asking them to win just one more series (albeit against the best from the National League this year) for better than double the price on both of them to just win the pennant, the payoff is there to take on added risk.

Theoretically, the teams that come into a season that are expected to be 2nd and 3rd best in the American League have to be considered as strong contenders to make the World Series to begin with.

If one of these two teams ends up getting there and playing up to that market expectation, with bettors who agree with this market perspective at a bare minimum, (likely believing the Twins or White Sox are still undervalued/rated) will be sitting awfully pretty if a preseason World Series future ticket at those prices gets there in the fall.

MLB Win Totals Odds

Chicago White Sox 91.5
Minnesota Twins 88.5
Cleveland Indians 81.5
Kansas City Royals 72.5
Detroit Tigers 68.5

Like the other divisions in the American League, the best way to get involved with any of the projected bottom feeders is with the over/under option on season wins. The respective win percentages fro the Royals (.433) and Tigers (.397) last year extrapolate out to about 70 and 65 wins respectively, putting KC and Detroit still under their numbers.

That strategy would have you running into some issues with the other three teams though, as they all were so close with their win percentage numbers (Minnesota .600, Cleveland and Chicago at .583) that the easy answer would be to play the 'overs' in all three cases.

Could it turn out that way in the AL Central? Sure, the White Sox, Royals, and Indians could all beat up on the other two squads and trade games with one another relative to their projections and Chicago, Minnesota, and Cleveland could all cash win total 'overs.'

But banking on it happening before the season begins is something too tough to significantly get behind.

Meaning the opinion a bettor has on the 2021 Cleveland Indians is likely going to color how they tend to see the rest of the division. Should a decline be swift and steep for Cleveland this year, the two teams above them are likely cashing 'over' tickets as is one team below the Indians.

If Cleveland's demise is greatly exaggerated for some, then an Indians 'over' bet has to be fired on , as 82 wins is basically a .500 season. It means shifting to the 'under' on one of the White Sox/Twins in all likelihood, and seeing one of those two basement dwellers cash an 'under' ticket as well.

Overall, it does make the win total props in this division tough to break down, because it's always going to be colored by individual perspectives on multiple teams. And most of those perspectives (good and bad) have plenty of value points behind them.

MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds

Chicago White Sox: Yes -275; No +210
Minnesota Twins: Yes -157; No +125
Cleveland Indians: Yes +230; No -305
Kansas City Royals: Yes +1000; No -5000
Detroit Tigers: Yes +5000; No N/A

Because I do believe there is such a wide range of outcomes for all three of the teams expected to be at the top in this division (and from the two expected to be at the bottom as well), there are only two of these playoff props that would be somewhat appealing: Cleveland on the Yes at +230 and Chicago on the No at +210.

It's understandable that it's hard to figure a team with the reigning MVP like Chicago could lay an egg for the entire season, but making the playoffs with a reigning AL MVP on your team has only happened once the past few years.

All of Trout's recent MVP wins haven't translated into playoff berths the following year for LA, and a year after Mookie Betts won the 2018 award in Boston was packing up for winter after Game 162 and hatched ideas of moving on from Betts entirely.

The White Sox have done everything right on paper which is probably why the idea of their 36-24 season last year not being considered “fluky” never really comes up.

They are built on both sides of the diamond to dominate this division, but who knows how dark the timeline gets for Chicago in 2021, and if something like injuries start a derail of their season. It's not like it would be the first time an expected World Series contender comes nowhere close to that expectation in the end.

Cleveland on the Yes would be forcing my hand into siding with the idea that the Indians demise may not arrive just yet. Hell, the organization said they'd get rid of the nickname for obvious reasons, but then get to keep it for another year.

Maybe that's how the play goes on the field for the 2021 Indians, as their pitching staff continues to mow down everyone, the timely hits with runners in scoring position continues as it did when Lindor was in town and often the catalyst for those types of rallies, and the demise of the Indians in the AL Central standings is like their nickname and still at least a year from being fully realized.

Not suggesting that happens, but to fully get behind a 'Yes' wager on Cleveland to make the playoffs, there should probably be some belief that Cleveland will being playing that type of baseball for the majority of the days each week.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Jose Ramirez (Cleveland) +1200
Jose Abreu (Chicago) +2500
Yoan Moncada (Chicago) +2500
Luis Robert (Chicago) +2500
Yasmani Grandal (Chicago) +3000
Eloy Jimenez (Chicago) +3000
Tim Anderson (Chicago) +3300
Josh Donaldson (Minnesota) +5000

Any 'Yes' on Cleveland's playoff prop should probably have some correlation with adding a Jose Ramirez MVP futures play to the portfolio as well.

There are a lot of ways Cleveland can sneak into the playoffs without a MVP performance from Ramirez, but the high end of the Indians range in 2021 ends with a division title, likely threatening 100 wins, and either a MVP or Cy Young award winner in their locker room.

Ramirez doesn't get listed with much better odds than two thirds of Chicago's lineup that follows without having a legitimate path there. A great season from Cleveland likely leaves little options for who is their MVP.

The favored White Sox could have any one of a number of guys be their best player for the season in their high end ranges for results, and it makes picking a name from their list hard as well.

With all the offensive firepower teams in other divisions in the American League have, any offensive player from the AL Central might always be a little bit overlooked. Abreu wasn't last year, but that came after six straight years of the AL MVP coming from a different American League division.

A pitcher from the AL Central listed way down the board is always a way to go for AL Central selections, but the key to success for any of the three teams expected to be at the top of this division is going to be overall balance. Balance doesn't help in the MVP voting process.

MLB Cy Young Odds

Shane Bieber (Cleveland) +400
Lucas Giolito (Chicago) +450
Jose Berrios (Minnesota) +1700
Lance Lynn (Chicago) +1700
Kenta Maeda (Minnesota) +2000
Dallas Keuchel (Chicago) +2200

No American League Cy Young winner has won the award in consecutive years since Pedro Martinez did it in 1999 and 2000. That doesn't bode well for Shane Bieber at the top of this list, but again, any highly positive outlook on Cleveland has to include Bieber having a big part in that success.

The price is probably what should keep bettors away from backing a guy trying to be the first to repeat in 20 years, and it's going to be harder to give him credit if his team finishes 3rd again in a full 162-game slate. The cases for others around him on better teams will always be there.

There are also only nine names for the entire American League priced at +2000 or lower right now, and to have five of them come from this division does give choice to the bettor.

You do probably have to have a guy from the division winner in this division to have the best shot at connecting with the selection, and that leads us back to all the previous questions that have been asked on the differing perspectives of where many can see Cleveland, Minnesota, and Chicago finishing this year.

But for the same reason it makes sense to avoid AL Central hitters for the MVP with all the sluggers elsewhere, it makes sense to hone in on pitchers from the AL Central for the Cy Young award if overall hitting/scoring is going to be relatively lower in this division compared to the others.

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:12 PM

AL West Betting Odds
Matt Blunt

2021 AL West Division Odds

Houston Astros +120
Oakland Athletics +150
Los Angeles Angels +375
Seattle Mariners +2600
Texas Rangers +4000

The AL West should be a case of the haves and have nots this year, as the Mariners and Rangers are expected to be relative door mats if these division odds hold somewhat true to form. I'm not entirely sure I agree with Texas getting far less credit then Seattle this year, but outside of looking to back the Rangers in early head-to-head meetings, that opinion isn't going to matter much long term in the AL West.

The Angels are going to be that organization that can teeter on taking the next step, but they've also found plenty of creative ways to not give Mike Trout an opportunity at playing playoff baseball the past six seasons that you could start a pool on how it will happen to them in 2021. The pitching is still going to have questions to be answered but when you've got the money the Angels have in position players that's to be expected. For those that are high on the Angels, a piece of the +375 Division crown price makes sense, as Trout's only playoff appearance came with an AL West banner as well.

Oakland comes in as the defending champs, as they trust how they operate there and it's tough to argue against the results. Three straight playoff appearances haven't brought the desired postseason success, but they are also a hard organization to go against with all the past success they've had. Since moving to Oakland in 1968, the A's have won 17 Division titles and have had streaks of five straight, three straight, and two straight (twice) in that time. Identical 97-65 SU records weren't good enough to knock off the Astros in the trash can's heyday, so it's not like Oakland hasn't been building this for a while. Can't fault anyone for siding with them at +150.

Houston's the understandable favorite with how they look on paper, and should their pitching alone live up to past form, the Astros will win a lot of games. We will get to see just how important George Springer was at the top of their lineup though with Springer now in Toronto, and we still haven't seen this core deal with angry fans across the entire league. How a bettor believes Houston will respond to those changes will influence whether a play on them to win this division is made or not.

Despite having one of the best players in Mike Trout, the Los Angeles Angels aren't listed as the top betting choice to win the AL West. (AP)

2021 American League Pennant Odds

Oakland Athletics +900
Houston Astros +1000
Los Angeles Angels +2000
Seattle Mariners +5000
Texas Rangers +5000

Hard not to look at this batch of futures odds for AL West teams and formulate some shaded opinions on other futures markets. For instance, if a bettor sides with the idea that Oakland being considered more likely to win the AL compared to Houston, with the respective playoff records side by side is correct, it makes any Oakland division winner prop or Playoffs: Yes prop option with the A's the better option.

The Angels are that wildcard team here in that their ceiling should be rolling into the playoffs and getting hot at the right time, so a long term investment in hoping the Angels figure it out this year isn't the worst option either.

2021 World Series Odds

Houston Astros +2200
Oakland Athletics +2500
Los Angeles Angels +4400
Seattle Mariners +10000
Texas Rangers +15000

Hard to think the Astros run away with this division even at their best, so even though they've been priced back in as the team with the best odds again, you can probably get a better price on them during the year. There is a strong case to be made for that being the situation with Oakland and LA as well, but again it comes down to the Angels having the highest odds and most realistic chance of getting hot when it matters. Even if they haven't done it before. Oakland's in a similar boat themselves and the Angels are nearly double the price.

MLB Win Totals Odds

Houston Astros 87.5
Oakland Athletics 86.5
Los Angeles Angels 83.5
Seattle Mariners 72.5
Texas Rangers 66.5

The last AL West champ that finished a non-shortened season with fewer than 88 wins were the 1987 Minnesota Twins if you can believe it or not. Seattle did it with 79 wins in the 144-game 1995 season, and obviously there was last year, but you get the division champ correct here and the 'over' is correlated.

And speaking of Seattle, they had better hope that their prospects are as ready as to be believed, because this is where the six game gap between the Mariners and Rangers doesn't feel all that warranted. A 69-win campaign makes plenty of sense for both of them, but I do believe you've got to trust the 'under' on Seattle more than the 'over' with Texas in that scenario.

MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds

Oakland Athletics: Yes -130; No +105
Houston Astros: Yes -124; No +100
Los Angeles Angels: Yes +160; No -200
Seattle Mariners: Yes +1000; No -5000
Texas Rangers: Yes; No

Having Oakland with the best price makes sense with how it's gone in the previous markets, with the Astros World Series experience factored into those WS odds. Getting two teams to the postseason is no guarantee here though, and again, the perspective one takes on the Angels this year will bring plenty of potential scenarios to map out.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Mike Trout (L.A. Angels) +200
Alex Bregman (Houston Astros) +1000
Matt Chapman (Oakland Athletics) +1500
Anthony Rendon (L.A. Angels) +1500
Shohei Ohtani (L.A. Angels) +3300
Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros) +3300
Jose Altuve (Houston Astros) +4000
Carlos Correra (Houston Astros) +4000
Matt Olson (Oakland Athletics) +4000
Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros) +4000

With how well the top half of this entire division is represented in these MVP odds, at least two of them making the postseason feels like it's priced like a certainty. Hard to beat the guy who's been at the top for a long time now in Mike Trout, but there hasn't been much team success behind those seasons. Trout would gladly take the team success this year at the cost of another MVP award, and the price is a little absurd. Trout and Bregman are #1 and #2 in the entire AL market at those odds.

But I also don't know how you can confidently argue the path for any of these other choices to get past Trout AND the rest of the big names scattered throughout the American League.

Oakland's success tends to come from a balanced approach, and any of the Angels options are hard to believe possible without Trout missing time. It's a grab bag of Astros as the other options and those choices are usually best left to personal preference.

MLB Cy Young Odds

Marco Gonzales (Seattle Mariners) +2500
Jesus Luzardo (Oakland Athletics) +2500
Framber Valdez (Houston Astros) +2500
Zack Greinke (Houston Astros) +3300
Andrew Heaney (L.A. Angels) +3300

With how many names there were at the top of the odds in the MVP section, and how there are 10 names ahead of the +2500 prices Gonzales and Luzardo have for the Cy Young, maybe the thought of expecting some 'overs' to connect early in the season in AL West division games has some validity.

It's going to take one hell of a season for Gonzales to win this award should the Mariners play out their projections, and when he's one of the best priced starters in this division, it's probably best to look at the names elsewhere in the AL.

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:12 PM

NL East Betting Odds
Matt blunt

2021 NL East Division Odds

Atlanta Braves +120
New York Mets +140
Washington Nationals +600
Philadelphia Phillies +875
Miami Marlins +2500

Hard not to be the preseason winners of this division if you are the New York Mets with the moves they made during the offseason, adding Francisco Lindor to the middle of an infield that's got one of the best starting rotations in baseball pitching in front of them.

No matter how New York constructs their rotation throughout the year, they are going to be sending a stud or former stud to the mound nearly every night. That alone is going to win a lot of games for this team.

The Mets aren't the only team in this division with a strong pitching staff from front to back, as Washington's built in a similar mold. The former World Champs still have a trio of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin at the top, and they've added a name like Jon Lester (among others) to that staff.

The Nationals also have the player with the best NL MVP odds within this division in Juan Soto, and the entire Nationals lineup is built to churn like a machine when everyone is contributing. Adding a power bat like former Cub Kyle Schwarber won't hurt Washington's chances either.

Former Nationals slugger Bryce Harper is still out in Philadelphia, playing for a Phillies team that's built to win games one way: with their offense. The nightly lineup the Phillies can throw out there each night will be downright scary for some opponents, but how successful that method of team building works in a division with multiple teams loaded with multiple pitchers remains to be seen.

Based on the Phillies price, there isn't a whole lot of optimism that this team can be the best of the bunch in the NL East, and it's because their pitching is a huge question mark. Does make Philly a good candidate to be an 'over' team for game totals early in the year if the bats start out the season hot, but they deserve to be ranked 4th in this division because of that pitching, even if the price does feel a little too high.

The Braves also deserve to be the favorites to repeat as division champs, even if the price margin is slim between themselves and the Mets. Atlanta won this division in the “sprint” last year by four games, over the Marlins mind you. The three likely contenders to Atlanta's crown this year were all at least seven full games worse than the Braves a year ago too.

A full 162-game race track for these teams to run out in deciding the standings can help those chasing the Braves, but the Braves are built to do everything well, and if they execute on that level again this year and get a MVP-caliber performance reigning winner Freddie Freeman (or Acuna, Albies etc), it's going to be tough to see the Braves getting dethroned here.

Can't fault anyone for liking any one of those four teams at the top to take this division title down. There are all highly positive cases for each of those organizations where a 95+ win campaign is how 2021 plays out for them, and the prices are definitely there for Nationals and Phillies backers.

Not so sure that's the case with the Mets price, but that team should do big things in 2021. How big remains to be seen.

2021 National League Pennant Odds

Atlanta Braves +500
New York Mets +525
Washington Nationals +2000
Philadelphia Phillies +2000
Miami Marlins +3300

Since there are arguments to be had for four different teams in this division to be division champs, you can't deny that the team that does outlast the bunch will have done so having been tested plenty.

That can only be looked at as a good thing in terms of futures numbers down the road for the NL East winner, as they'll be comfortable and confident against anyone, like say, a favored L.A. Dodgers or San Diego Padres team in the NLCS.

Saying that is all well and good in theory, but it still puts us back to the original question of where a bettor would be willing to go in the NL East Division markets. Doubling up or splitting a unit on the same team to win the division and pennant is always an option as well, as the latter market does keep alive a playoff run from a Wild Card seed as well.

At least one of the Wild Card berths in the NL could easily come from this division, so even going with the approach of mitigating any division risk with a bigger stake on a pennant future can be the route to go too.

Finally, for bettors that are the big time believers in everything the Mets have done and what they expect to get in returns from those moves this year, skipping over the division markets and getting about 5-1 on them to make the World Series could be the way to go.

New York's pitching staff should be able to hold their own against the likes of the Dodgers/Padres etc, and the protection against a Mets sluggish start (as they adapt to the changes) costing them the division is worth the price/risk trade off in my opinion.

Following a disappointing 2020 season with high expectations, the Phillies look to rebound and make it to the top of the NL East. (AP)

2021 World Series Odds

Atlanta Braves +1000
New York Mets +1000
Washington Nationals +3300
Philadelphia Phillies +4000
Miami Marlins +7500

Again, any Mets bettors should add a World Series ticket to any other futures they are holding on New York, and there's probably no way, or need to convince them otherwise.

On paper, New York's got all the pieces in place to go off and win a title if everything breaks right for them, and at that price they are still tied with the Braves for the 3rd best price for any NL team, meaning the likelihood of it happening isn't like that play is going way out on a limb or anything.

Same thing goes for the Braves in the identical situation for bettors that believe they still aren't getting their due for how good they really are.

The Nationals and Phillies are interesting cases for the World Series market in that for them to reach this position and those play(s) having a chance to cash, the season for that team had to have gone extremely well.

If that's the case, and that's the belief for a bettor, going heavier with the stake on the Nats/Phillies to win the division and/or pennant would probably be my preferred way to go there.

It is only one extra series, but the Phillies rotation as is would have a severe challenge against any AL World Series representative, and Washington can rely on their pitching too much that things look really bad when the pitching isn't there.

Having a bit more stake at 6/1 or 8.75/1 on those teams for the division or their 20/1 prices to just make the World Series is still going to be a nice payday.

MLB Win Totals Odds

Atlanta Braves 91.5
New York Mets 90.5
Washington Nationals 84.5
Philadelphia Phillies 80.5
Miami Marlins 71.5

Outside of 2020, two of the previous six seasons saw the NL East winner finish with exactly 90 wins, so as contrary as it may sound in relation to those previous team futures to win various banners, looking at the 'unders' on either the Braves or Mets is definitely an option for those looking to fade those teams in 2021.

If all four teams at the top are good, a Miami 'under' is worthy of consideration, but the Marlins held their own just fine last year. A longer season only hurts Miami's chances of sustaining that level of play, but they are a team that probably lands within two or three games on either side of that number.

All four top teams being good also means their might not be enough wins to go around for both the Braves and Mets to get up and over their numbers.

The way I would approach these win totals would be to go with the team between Washington and Philly I thought would be better than expected, and pair that 'over' with the 'under' on the team I thought wouldn't live up to expectations between Atlanta and New York.

Everything probably ends up so correlated in this division that a bunch of teams finishing in the high 80's of wins makes a lot of sense this year. Should give bettors one 'over' and one 'under' for those four teams with win totals of 80.5 or higher.

MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds

Atlanta Braves Yes -275; No +210
New York Mets Yes -250; No +195
Washington Nationals Yes +130; No -162
Philadelphia Phillies Yes +285; No -385
Miami Marlins Yes +1000; No -5000

Again, this market is something I'd treat completely different to the team futures markets from earlier, unless being extremely high on Washington or Philadelphia is Plan A for the bettor. Then it's pile on the Nats/Phillies for division, NL pennant, and anything else, as long as the 'yes' on making the playoffs is included as well.

Washington at +130 feels like a solid relationship between price and probability, as their pitching staff should be among one of the better ones in the league, and the balance they can achieve offensively can be extremely envious.

Treating this differently means that the 'no' options for the Braves and/or Mets are the plays on the negative side of the equation this year that probably makes the most sense. With how close this division should likely be, there is always going to be varying opinions, and wanting to sell high on Atlanta and/or New York isn't the worst option.

The same bettor isn't going to have one of them to win the Pennant/World Series and consider the 'no' on the playoff prop obviously, (they could), but expecting one of those plus-money options on Atlanta/New York/Washington/Philadelphia to connect is very reasonable. Plenty of options along that route that are up to the individual.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Juan Soto (Washington) +750
Ronald Acuna, Jr. (Atlanta) +850
Freddie Freeman (Atlanta) +1200
Francisco Lindor (New York) +1200
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia) +1500
Ozzie Albies (Atlanta) +3000
J.T. Realmuto (Philadelphia) +3000
Pete Alonso (New York) +3300
Michael Conforto (New York) +4000

You'd have to go back to the 2010 winner (Joey Votto) and 2011 winner (Ryan Braun) to find the last time consecutive NL MVP's came from the same division. With Atlanta's Freddie Freeman winning this award last year, that history might hurt the chances of all these names.

You'd have to go back to the 2008-09 seasons to find the last time a NL MVP repeated as winner (Albert Pujols) in Freeman's case specifically, and the last time we had two different players from the same team win the NL MVP was 2006-07 when Philly's Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins grabbed the hardware. That kills off any interest I were to have in any of Atlanta's players on this list, and it's backed by where the Braves will show up in the selections later on.

Do think it's tough for Lindor to go to off to a different team and win a MVP award in his first year, but being the biggest change on a team that could have a huge change in results this year already has some built in MVP sentiment to Lindor's case.

You probably don't even have to be all that high on the Mets to back Lindor or any of New York's other names either. MVP's generally go to players on a team that won their division, so if you believe the Mets ceiling in 2021 is a NL East title, a MVP award for their best player is definitely not out of the question.

Soto is the complete player already in this league at his young age, and from a career arc perspective, it's easy to see a league MVP landing on his resume at some point. Being the guy a specific NL team relies upon for the “clutch” hit late in games has worked out well for past NL MVP's.

Albert Pujols won the award three times in five years at the peak of his powers in St. Louis, and his first award came after Barry Bonds had won four straight. Both were guys who sat in the middle of the order, took a walk when that's all that was offered, but cashed in when those opportunities were there as well.

You can say the same thing about the seasons recent MVP's had as well, as Cody Bellinger (2019), Christian Yelich (2018), Giancarlo Stanton (2017), Kris Bryant (2016), and Bryce Harper (2015) were all guys that were routinely pitched around in those seasons because of how often they put bat on ball for a hit.

Soto's got all those characteristics already in his game, and with the Nats expecting their starting pitching to keep things tight at worst, there are going to be plenty of opportunities for Washington bats to come up with those game-deciding hits in the late innings.

MLB Cy Young Odds

Jacob deGrom (New York) +425
Max Scherzer (Washington) +950
Aaron Nola (Philadelphia) +1200
Max Fried (Atlanta) +1700
Stephen Strasburg (Washington) +2000
Charlie Morton (Atlanta) +2200
Patrick Corbin (Washington) +2800
Mike Soroka (Atlanta) +3000
Sixto Sanchez (Miami) +3000
Zach Wheeler (Philadelphia) +3300
Carlos Carrasco (New York) +4000

When there are names coming back from injury like Marcus Stroman (+5000) and Noah Syndergaard (+5000) not even making this already extensive list, pitcher's duels might be the norm in the NL East this season. So many legitimate options for this award coming from this division that it's another one of those categories where personal preference is going to trump any kind of persuasive perspective presented.

The Braves pitching staff might actually be a bit underrated here if the other prices on Atlanta this year are correct or even undershooting things, and one of the two younger guys in Fried or Soroka may be the go-to selections there. That is for believers in Atlanta though. Anyone else is going to be looking elsewhere, and for me, that again lands me in Washington.

If the Mets are dominant, then deGrom will be a big part of it, but he also won't be asked (or needed) to do as much hopefully for the Mets and that probably hurts his individual award prospects.

He's already somewhat competing against himself having won in 2018 and 2019, and if his team is exponentially better than they were in those years (highly likely), the natural expectation is to need EVEN more from deGrom to give him the award again. Makes it tough to see him get the award again in many scenarios, and something I'm not interested in concerning myself with.

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:13 PM

NL Central Betting Odds
Matt Blunt

2021 NL Central Division Odds

St. Louis Cardinals +105
Milwaukee Brewers +300
Cincinnati Reds +330
Chicago Cubs +425
Pittsburgh Pirates +6500

For the second time in three years the St. Louis Cardinals went shopping for roster upgrades in the NL West and came back with a superstar. It was 1B Paul Goldschmidt from Arizona a couple of years ago, and this winter it was 3B Nolan Arenado from Colorado.

That addition is a big part in the given edge to the Cardinals on paper in this marketplace, as the margins for error in the NL Central is going to be razor thin for everyone. Unless you're the Pirates. Expect plenty of errors from Pittsburgh this year.

But for as deep and balanced as the Cardinals appear to be, I'm not sure the rest of the division is as far behind St. Louis as these prices (and the season win totals) seem to suggest.

Milwaukee adding Jackie Bradley, Jr. is no small thing for them even if the bigger payoff is in defensive runs saved with him, and the Reds did lose Trevor Bauer and his Cy Young winning effort, but they were everyone's preseason darling in that 60-game season for more reasons than just having Bauer and Cincinnati probably underperformed; especially early on.

The Cubs actually won the NL Central in 2020, and when you can have a lineup like they can with Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Heyward, Pederson, and others like Chicago can, 4-1 on Chicago to repeat can appear a little disrespectful.

Whether or not the Kris Bryant free agency after this year ends up becoming a biggest distraction than it should is always a concern with the Cubs, as is the idea that they had been sliding south before last year's division crown in the sprint of a season. For how good Chicago's lineup appears to look, they are priced as the worst of the bunch for other reasons.

So I believe any division breakdown here has to start with two questions. The first being whether or not a bettor sides with the idea that the Cardinals are the clear cut favorite in this division. If you do, it's pretty straight forward how to react, but if you don't selecting between the other three probably comes down to such a slim margin in the end that any argument for any of those three teams can be viable at this point.

2021 National League Pennant Odds

St. Louis Cardinals +1050
Milwaukee Brewers +2500
Cincinnati Reds +1500
Chicago Cubs +2200
Pittsburgh Pirates +10000

Same conceptual idea generally exists here on whether or not a bettor agrees with the market assessment on St. Louis. There are four teams with better odds with the Dodgers (+175), Padres (+390), Braves (+500), and Mets (+525), but only three NL Central teams have made the World Series since 2008 as well (St. Louis in 2011, 2013, Chicago 2016).

More interesting in this futures market has got to be the Reds being priced as high as they are, pushing them as a clear cut favorite to go further than Milwaukee which helps paint a potential picture for Reds plays in other markets.

But if there are questions about the Cardinals being worth the price that they are listed at, that doesn't appear to be the case with Cincinnati.

I don't see how the Reds are worth this price for the whole NL even if they did underachieve by as big a margin as possible last summer. Cincinnati's price is much more likely to grow to +2000 and higher as the weeks get played in the season, and that's part of not seeing any interest in the Reds right now.

That's not to say Cincinnati can't be a good price to win the National League this year, but the likelihood of getting them at a better price to do so is rather high in my view that even those who have the most positive outlook for the Reds this year would be prudent to wait and let the season play out a bit first.

Finally, we can't leave out the fact that the Cubs have the better price than Milwaukee in this market, despite the Brewers owning that honor for the division. The idea that the Cubs are a streaky team is nothing new and definitely has to be expected to a degree, but again, seeing how the Cubs open up the year and get a few weeks under their belt isn't a bad idea.

Remember, with all these NL Central teams, they are still competing with the likes of the Dodgers, Padres, and NL East leaders in this market, all of whom come into the year with much better prices. If those teams start the year on a roll, prices on the other teams have no choice but to climb.

The Cardinals upgraded their lineup with the acquisition of 3B Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. (AP)

2021 World Series Odds

St. Louis Cardinals +2500
Cincinnati Reds +3300
Chicago Cubs +4000
Milwaukee Brewers +4400
Pittsburgh Pirates +25000

It's the same hierarchy of prices in relation to the teams again here, with Milwaukee being the worst of the bunch in the Top 4. Don't think that matters as much here as any run by any of these teams through the entire league this year would be worthy of being priced in the 3000 to +5000 range.

Cincinnati may not be worth 11 points on Milwaukee, so from a pure price perspective it might be an option to take Milwaukee now and see what kind of other opportunities open up down the road.

MLB Win Totals Odds

St. Louis 86.5
Milwaukee 82.5
Cincinnati 82.5
Chicago 78.5
Pittsburgh 58.5

So what do you do with the NL Central win total prices in a division that should be quite congested at the top?

Well, to start, every NL Central winner (outside of last year) has finished with at least 90 wins since 2008, so get the division winner correct and the 'over' should be an easy cash as well.

Seven of the last eight have either been the Cubs or the Cardinals in that regard, but I still like the chances of one those two teams sitting at 82.5 wins. Still believe the Reds are much better than they showed last year offensively, and that it's still more than enough to make up for losing the reigning Cy Young winner.

Going back to 2008 is also important as there have only been two times since 2008 that this division has had four teams finish with 80+ wins (2008, 2018). That's a 12-year run that even includes multiple years where the NL Central was a six-team division with the Astros still lurking around.

If the Pirates are the furthest of afterthoughts, correctly pick the the team that will be the worst of the other four and an 'under' play on the win totals should cash as well.

MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds

St. Louis Cardinals Yes -124; No +100
Cincinnati Reds Yes +190; No-245
Milwaukee Brewers Yes +145; No -182
Chicago Cubs Yes +325; No -455
Pittsburgh Pirates Yes N/A; No N/A

Arguably the best division in baseball for this specific futures market, as any 'yes' option on any of the three teams offering plus money for that result (Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Chicago) makes sense, as does the idea of going 'no' on St Louis for those that may want to go that route.

Finding a preference on the 'yes' option for the Brewers/Reds/Cubs would be my preferred path, although it's no certainty the Cardinals finish as a Top Two team in this division either.

But rooting for teams to win is always more enjoyable than rooting for specific ones to lose, so finding a 'yes' option on one of those three plus-money teams is probably the best way to go.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Nolan Arenado (St. Louis) +1200
Christian Yelich (Milwaukee) +1200
Kris Bryant (Chicago) +3000
Anthony Rizzo (Chicago) +3000
Javier Baez (Chicago) +3300
Paul Goldschmidt (St. Louis) +3300
Ian Happ (Chicago) +4000

Balance and depth are the glaring perspective of the Cardinals roster, so unless St Louis piles up 100+ wins at a top seed in the NL, Arenado and Goldschmidt probably take too many votes from one another to be that strongly considered.

That argument can obviously be made for all the Cubs players on the list, but Chicago probably won't get the pitching St Louis would in 100-win campaigns for either of them, meaning Chicago's success will be more dependent on the bats of those guys.

Every one of the last 11 NL MVP winners has been a 1st time winner of the award though, so that does hurt Kris Bryant's chances in that Cubs debate.

It also hurts Milwaukee's Christian Yelich as the 2018 winner, but if Milwaukee goes off as a team this year, who else can you think they'd give it to on the Brewers besides Yelich. Anyone high on the Brewers chances this year shouldn't worry too much about that with Yelich.

MLB Cy Young Odds

Jack Flaherty (St. Louis) +1500
Luis Castillo (Cincinnati) +1500
Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee) +2200
Sonny Gray (Cincinnati) +3300
Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee) +4000

It isn't a deep list for Cy Young contenders in the NL Central this year and probably for good reason. However, the Central had the worst net run differential as a division in the NL last year at -1 (STL 0.2, CHI 0.4, Cincy 0, Milwaukee -0.3, Pittsburgh -1.3) and facing the weaker offenses more often certainly didn't hurt Bauer's efforts in winning the award as a member of the Reds last year.

But I don't believe any of these guys have the pedigree that Bauer already had going into the year, nor do I believe any of these names are consistent enough with their dominant efforts to run through the entire year and claim this award.

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:13 PM

NL West Betting Odds
Matt Blunt

2021 NL West Division Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers -250
San Diego Padres +200
San Francisco Giants +4000
Arizona Diamondbacks +5000
Colorado Rockies +5000

Even without looking at the prices for the NL West this year, baseball bettors had better have already known this division is going to be a two-horse race between the Dodgers and Padres barring something extraordinary somewhere else.

One of the Giants/Diamondbacks/Rockies is going to end up better than their projections if for no other reason then someone's got to win those games played among each other. But for the team that is lucky enough to do that to seriously threaten the division title – at least at this stage – is money best left kept in pocket.

The Dodgers have owned this division for years, having won it for eight consecutive seasons now. Everyone knows that all those division titles typically ended up in playoff heartbreak before last season, but the fact that the Dodgers were able to get over that hump and win a World Series may actually be a negative for this year's division futures.

A World Series title in exchange for not winning the division after eight straight years of doing so is a trade off every Dodger fan will gladly make, but from a historical betting perspective, I want nothing to do with the Dodgers at -250 to win the NL West for a 9th straight season.

That's because defending World Champions have only gone on to win their division the following year five times the past 20 years. It has happened twice in the past four seasons with the Cubs winning the 2017 NL Central following their 2016 championship year, and the Houston Astros doing the same thing the following season, but given what we know about how good the Padres are, and how willingly they've spent money to further improve can really only suggest a play on San Diego at +200.

San Diego hasn't hidden their agenda to become the next dominant NL West organization this next decade and with how they are loading up things on their roster, the prices on the Padres aren't going to get any cheaper.

L.A. probably should have had at least one other World Series during this run of dominance these past handful of years, but guys have been going elsewhere to get paid more to play and even with the additions and reloads the Dodgers continue to make, eventually runs like that run their course. A bit more uncertainty in the depth department for L.A. has a price like -250 nothing but something I'd be looking to fade more often than not.

It just so happens that it works out rather nicely here with the Padres being the only realistic contender to dethrone the champs. Add in the negative history for World Series champs to go on and win their respective division to the Padres current situation of gunning for a decade of dominance in the “Fernando Tatis era”, only a Padres play makes sense here in my view.

2021 National League Pennant Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers +175
San Diego Padres +390
San Francisco Giants +6000
Arizona Diamondbacks +8000
Colorado Rockies +8000

So the fact that the Dodgers and Padres are priced #1 and #2 in the National League actually serves as more support for backing San Diego at +200 for the division in a roundabout way, but it does also suggest that both may be a little overpriced to go the distance(s) the most expect them too.

But whatever team that wins the NL East had a great season being the best of the bunch in that division, and the NL Central isn't a two-horse race like the NL West is either. Both of those division champs are going to be hard outs in a playoff series, and as we've seen with the Dodgers run prior to 2020, sometime the best team can run through their division/regular season and then get tripped up at the wrong time in a short sample size seven-game series.

It happens all the time. It's not like there aren't plenty of great pitching staffs on some of those potential NL East and NL Central champions to begin with. Any staff gets hot in October and every level of opponent is going to have a tough time.

Neither price on the Dodgers or Padres is all that viable then, unless a bettor believes in one of them so much that walking through the rest of the league won't be an issue for whomever comes out on top in this rivalry. Whether it be for the division or in a playoff series again itself.

Fernando Tatis, Jr. and the Padres have upgraded their roster and will be a threat to the Dodgers in the NL West. (AP)

2021 World Series Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers +350
San Diego Padres +800
San Francisco Giants +8000
Arizona Diamondbacks +10000
Colorado Rockies +10000

Even under the assumption that the Dodgers and Padres could be overpriced to win the NL Pennant, the idea of not having at least one of them involved in the NLCS is a tough one to completely get behind. Meaning that no matter if it's the Dodgers or Padres you are higher on this year, going with that side to win it all might be the most optimum.

The Dodgers are still priced as the overall favorite in all of MLB at +350, and the Padres are third at that number with only the Yankees in between. Hardly any difference in the gap there, a Dodgers' World Series price will never be +175 as the gap between their league pennant and World Series odds currently are, and the Padres price gap is a little bigger than that.

Furthermore, even with a slow start for the Dodgers that has them hovering around .500 after a month or so say, won't see their price drop dramatically where the idea of waiting on them might come into play. LA is too loaded not to find a way to get a playoff spot somehow, and even their price as the last wildcard wouldn't be astronomically higher than this one currently is. It's not like you can't double down on the Dodgers as well.

Most often though the Dodgers are running no worse than Top 3 in the NL West from the outset, and no worse than Top 5-8 in the National League for the majority of the season. An underwhelming year by the Padres for whatever reason adds even more wins to the Dodgers coffers in some form. Having the defending champs at +350 to repeat when they could have home field advantage throughout the playoffs isn't a bad place to be.

My apologies to any Giants/Diamondbacks/Rockies tickets, but seeing any one of those teams run hot enough for long enough, to come Top 2 in this division and then get hot enough to run through the rest of the NL and the AL representative is a lottery ticket that doesn't have a big enough price to entertain.

MLB Win Totals Odds

Los Angeles 102.5
San Diego 94.5
San Francisco 75.5
Arizona 74.5
Colorado 63.5

Getting involved in one of the projected bottom three teams always makes more sense in win totals than anywhere else, and seeing two of the three cash 'over' tickets this year would not be all that surprising. In that outcome, you'd have to figure that Colorado would likely be one of the two teams to do so, as 64 wins means still losing nearly 100 games.

The Rockies might not be trying to win everything these days, but they've still got bats like Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story in their lineup. Playing in a ballpark where average hitters can easily look like nightly studs, expecting the Rockies to be 100-game losers this year feels like they aren't getting enough credit.

On the other side of the coin, if the Dodgers fall victim to being another defending World Series champ not to win their division the following year, it would be quite the feat to win 103+ games and not be a division winner. Meaning that any Padres winning the division bet is correlated to a Dodgers win total 'under' bet when you think about it.

That number the Dodgers have is a big one to cover for any team, even with the Dodgers likely winning a healthy percentage of their games from playing the bottom teams in the NL West.

Even those that are high on the Dodgers again this year should have a second thought about going over a number like this no matter what. No matter how you want to view it, there are definitely better options and potential edges out there.

MLB Win Playoff Prop Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers Yes N/A; No N/A
San Diego Padres Yes -590; No +400
San Francisco Giants Yes +800; No -1667
Arizona Diamondbacks Yes +1000; No -2500
Colorado Rockies Yes N/A; No N/A

Not a whole lot of time is needed to be spent here unless you are going for an outlier result as a big underdog.

Whether it's the “no” on the Dodgers or Padres, or “yes” on everyone else, unless you are willing to put out a big chunk of the bankroll on what of the more relative certain options, it's probably how you have to treat the playoff yes/no props with the NL West teams.

MLB Most Valuable Player Odds

Mookie Betts (Los Angeles) +750
Cody Bellinger (Los Angeles) +800
Fernando Tatis, Jr. (San Diego) +850
Corey Seager (Los Angeles) +1500
Manny Machado (San Diego) +2200
Trevor Story (Colorado) +2500
Katel Marte (Arizona) +3000
Max Muncy (Los Angeles) +4000
Charlie Blackmon (Colorado) +5000

No shortage of quality names from this division for MVP candidates but the interesting thing to me is having those two Rockies players priced at 50-1 or better. If Blackmon or Story win the MVP, the Rockies are definitely going 'over' their season win total of 63.5, and they still don't need a MVP-caliber season from either of them to get past that number. Seeing those two names here actually makes that Colorado win total 'over' much more appealing.

The rest of the list is pick your preference wherever it may be, although Cody Bellinger might want to get passed over a bit more often. Not one of the past 10 NL MVP's have won it more than once in their careers, and Bellinger is the only former NL MVP (2019) on that list. What that means for Mookie Betts and his 2018 AL MVP award is up to the individual, as he is the co-favorite in the league with Washington's Juan Soto.

Corey Seager is probably another name to avoid at that price. The last reigning World Series MVP winner to go on to win league MVP the following year was Mike Schmidt (1980 WS MVP, 1981 NL MVP (defending 1980 NL MVP), so 15-1 might not be enough to expect that to happen. Especially with how many other great candidates the Dodgers have alone.

Eight straight NL West titles has only “given” the Dodgers two MVP winners in that span (Kershaw in 2014, Bellinger in 2019, and if the thought process of the Padres uprising continues, you probably can't go wrong with either of those two Padres players listed.

MLB Cy Young Odds

Trevor Bauer (Los Angeles) +700
Walker Buehler (Los Angeles) +1000
Yu Darvish (San Diego) +1200
Blake Snell (San Diego) +1200
Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles) +2000
Dinelson Lamet (San Diego) +2500
German Marquez (Colorado) +3000

Repeating as NL Cy Young champ has actually been quite a regular occurrence with deGrom, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Lincecum all accomplishing the feat since 2008, and Randy Johnson won four in a row at the turn of the century (1999-2002).

But you'd have to go back to the run of four straight Cy Young's that Greg Maddux had from 1992 through 1995 to find someone that managed to repeat as the Cy Young award winner and do so on a different team. That's the mountain any Trevor Bauer wager has to climb, and only deGrom has a better price to claim the award, so opinions are already quite high on Bauer to begin with.

I will say this though, having six different guys from the Dodgers and Padres top this list for players in the division makes plenty of sense. All it takes is for one of them to dominate the other rival – a Padres pitcher going 6-1 in starts vs LA or the other way around – to have them vault to the front as one of the favorites come late in the year. Accomplishing that means that same pitcher will rack up plenty of dominant performances against the rest of the division, and being the pitcher that led the way to a division crown and potential World Series run is going to be hard to ignore in the Cy Young voting.

Where a bettor stands on selecting any of those names goes back to the entire discussion that's gone on throughout regarding where one believes the Dodgers and Padres will finish the year. The San Diego side of that debate has been the preferred side for me, and sticking with that line of thought, it would be Darvish who would get my support.

Darvish took so much heat from all angles on that Game 7 start for the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series when the Astros stung him for five in the first two innings and went on to win Game 7 by a 5-1 score. Well, a rough first two innings against the 2017 Houston Astros (in the most important game of the year) looks a hell of a lot different now then it did in the immediate aftermath of Darvish getting skewered for the rough outing. It would be some kind of poetic justice to dominant that same organization he seemingly “let down” to lead their new rival to a new uprising.

Darvish definitely has the stuff to be a serious player in the Cy Young race, and maybe if he has a huge hand in San Diego gaining the upper hand in the NL West this year, some karmic retribution is in order. Darvish was just in the wrong place at the wrong time for that Game 7, sometimes that message gets lost. Does Kershaw's last few years look any different if that was him starting Game 7 in 2017 with the same result?

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:14 PM

961PITTSBURGH -962 CHICAGO CUBS
PITTSBURGH is 459-435 SU (-19.5 Units) in road games against division opponents since 1996.

963ATLANTA -964 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 7-2 SU (4.8 Units) in home games when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

965ARIZONA -966 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 19-9 SU (9.1 Units) in home games against left-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

967LA DODGERS -968 COLORADO
COLORADO is 717-771 SU (-131.1 Units) in home games when the total is 10 or higher since 1996.

969ST LOUIS -970 CINCINNATI
CINCINNATI is 489-453 SU (-9.3 Units) in home games when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1996.

973TORONTO -974 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 17-4 SU (12.6 Units) as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons.

977BALTIMORE -978 BOSTON
BOSTON is 28-50 SU (-27 Units) against left-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

979TEXAS -980 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 45-95 SU (-59.5 Units) as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1996.

981CHI WHITE SOX -982 LA ANGELS
CHI WHITE SOX is 13-5 SU (7.5 Units) in road games as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.

983HOUSTON -984 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 48-38 SU (6.2 Units) in home games when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:15 PM

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, April 1

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:15 PM

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, April 1

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:16 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 1

Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, but we’ll do what we can. Once the season gets rolling, we’ll be posting what I think is the most relevant information for each game.

NL games
Pirates @ Cubs
Kuhl is 2-6, 5.82 in 12 games (11 starts) vs Chicago; he is 0-3, 4.95 in five games (4 starts) at Wrigley.

Hendricks is 6-8, 3.02 in 19 career starts vs Pittsburgh.

Braves @ Phillies
Fried is 3-2, 4.15 in 11 games (5 starts) vs Philly; he is 2-2, 4.29 in seven games (3 starts) here.

Nola is 11-6, 3.05 in 20 starts vs Atlanta.

Diamondbacks @ Padres
Bumgarner is 13-12, 3.63 in 37 starts vs San Diego; he is 5-9, 4.38 in 19 starts at Petco.

Darvish is 3-1, 2.93 in five starts vs Arizona.

Dodgers @ Rockies
Kershaw is 24-8, 3.22 in 43 starts vs Colorado, 11-5, 4.44 in 23 starts at Coors Field.

Marquez is 2-1, 2.54 in nine starts vs LA.

Cardinals @ Reds
Flaherty is 2-2, 2.48 in seven starts vs Cincinnati; he is 1-1, 3.31 in four starts here.

Castillo is 4-4, 3.84 in 11 starts vs St Louis.

Mets @ Nationals
deGrom is 8-4, 261 in 20 starts vs Washington; he is 7-1, 2.80 in 11 starts here.

Scherzer is 12-5, 2.70 in 23 starts vs New York.

AL games
Blue Jays @ Bronx
Ryu is 1-2, 6.04 in four starts vs New York, 0-1, 4.50 in his one start in the Bronx.

Cole is 3-0, 2.88 in four starts vs Washington.

Indians @ Tigers
Bieber is 5-1, 2.13 in six starts vs Detroit, 4-0, 1.53 in four starts in the Motor City.

Boyd is 2-6, 4.13 in 12 starts vs Cleveland.

Orioles @ Red Sox
Means is 3-2, 4.46 in seven games (6 starts) vs Boston, 1-1, 6.08 in three games (2 starts) at Fenway.

Eovaldi is 6-1, 4.15 in 12 starts vs Baltimore.

Rangers @ Royals
Gibson is 9-5, 3.67 in 22 starts vs Kansas City, 3-3, 3.77 in 11 starts here.

Keller is 1-1, 2.70 in five starts vs Minnesota.

White Sox @ Angels
Giolito is 2-0, 3.32 in three starts against the Angels, 2-0, 3.75 in two starts at Anaheim.

Bundy is 4-0, 3.86 in five games (4 starts) vs Chicago.

Astros @ A’s
Greinke is 9-3, 2.92 in 21 games (17 starts) vs Oakland, 4-2, 2.63 in 13 games (10 starts) in the Coliseum.

Bassitt is 3-3, 5.15 in nine games (7 starts) against the Angels.

Interleague games
Rays @ Marlins
Glasnow is 0-1, 8.68 in two starts against the Marlins.

Alcantara is 1-1, 5.40 in two starts vs Tampa Bay.

Twins @ Brewers
Maeda is 3-2, 2.59 in seven starts vs Milwaukee, 2-1, 2.70 in three starts at Miller Park.

Woodruff is 0-2, 3.38 in two starts vs Minnesota.

Giants @ Mariners
Gausman is 1-2, 2.88 in six games (5 starts) vs Seattle, 1-2, 3.18 in five games (4 starts) here.

Gonzales is 1-1, 6.75 in two starts vs San Francisco.

**Udog** · 03-31-2021, 01:17 PM

MLB

Thursday, April 1

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Trend Report
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Toronto @ NY Yankees
Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto

Cleveland @ Detroit
Cleveland
Cleveland is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Cleveland is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home

Baltimore @ Boston
Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Boston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 9 games at home

Minnesota @ Milwaukee
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Pittsburgh @ Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games when playing Atlanta

St. Louis @ Cincinnati
St. Louis
St. Louis is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home

Texas @ Kansas City
Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Texas's last 21 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Kansas City's last 21 games when playing at home against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Texas

Arizona @ San Diego
Arizona
Arizona is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Arizona is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games at home

LA Dodgers @ Colorado
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

Tampa Bay @ Miami
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Tampa Bay is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games

NY Mets @ Washington
NY Mets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing NY Mets

Chi White Sox @ LA Angels
Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 7 games
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
LA Angels is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chi White Sox

Houston @ Oakland
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 10 games when playing at home against Houston

San Francisco @ Seattle
San Francisco
San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco

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Announcement

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 4/1

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 4/1

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