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**StarDust Bum** · 02-17-2021, 02:08 PM

MLB spring training: 10 storylines to watch, including Francisco Lindor's extension and fans in the stands

Here's what we'll be watching as the 2021 season approaches

Spring training gets underway this week in Arizona and Florida, and that means some scene-setting in order. Specifically, what particular MLB storylines are worth your considered ruminations as pitchers and catchers report to camp? To be sure, many of the subplots about to be ticked off won't culminate during spring training, but the exhibition season may provide some hints as to how things might play out on that particular front.

Really, this is a non-exhaustive list of storylines for the 2021 season, and Cactus and Grapefruit League activity merely marks the start of those stories. Throat-clearing? Finished. Actual content of note? Beginning now …

1. The Mets and a Francisco Lindor extension
The Mets under new owner Steve Cohen have been quite active this offseason -- ludicrously active by the franchise's Wilpon-era standards -- and their centerpiece addition is All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, whom they acquired via trade with Cleveland. Lindor is a true difference-maker with the bat and the glove and on the bases, and he's also one of the most luminous personalities in the game today. He makes the Mets a better team on the field and a more alluring one off it.

The rub, though, is that Lindor is entering his walk year, which means he'll be eligible for free agency not long after the 2021 World Series ends. Without question, the Mets would love to sign Lindor to a multi-year extension so that his stay in Queens spans much longer than a mere one season. For his part, Lindor has expressed a willingness to do just that. However, it's going to come at a significant cost, and the clock is already ticking.

On that latter point, here's what Lindor at his introductory Mets press conference said about the timeline for signing an extension:

"It gets to a point in spring training and it is time to enjoy the ride and focus on winning."

The implication is that once Grapefruit League play gets going in earnest, the time for contract talk has passed. That, in turn, would mean that Lindor is almost certain to hit the market next winter. The Mets can't let that happen, and they need to be willing to pay Lindor something well north of $300 million in order to keep him in orange and blue (and occasionally black for some reason) for years to come. We may know the end of this particular story fairly soon.

2. The Dodgers and their chances of repeating
Not since the 1999-2000 has a team repeated as World Series champions. That happens to be the longest "repeat" drought in MLB history. The 2021 Dodgers, however, figure to have about as good a chance as you can have to win back-to-back titles. In the abbreviated 2020 season, they won at a .717 clip, which scales to a 116-win pace across the usual 162 games. They backed it up with a plus-136 run differential (a fairly absurd figure across just 60 games), and then in the postseason went 13-5 en route to winning the World Series for the first time since 1988.

As for 2021, they've added to the fold Trevor Bauer, who was the top pitcher available on the free-agent market, and veteran lefty David Price will be new to the rotation after opting out of the 2020 season. The pitching depth is the envy of every other team, and they return almost every piece of an offense that led the majors in runs scored last season.

The nature of baseball is such that you should always take the field over any one team when it comes to predicting who wins the World Series, but the mighty Dodgers are better positioned to repeat than any team in a very long time.

3. Fans in the stands
Because of the still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, fans weren't permitted to attend MLB games last season until the very last rounds of the playoffs. This season, however, figures to occasion more of an atmosphere of normality in this regard. The plan right now is for fans to be in attendance at spring training games and regular season games, albeit in limited numbers and in accordance with local guidelines.

Back in January, MLB distributed an internal memo on this matter that went a little something like this:

"The Office of the Commissioner understands the need for clubs to plan for next season,'' the memo reads, "but MLB's policies ultimately will depend on the public health situation in the United States, which is difficult to predict this far in advance of the season. In particular, the current uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 vaccine production and distribution rates is preventing our experts from making predictions about the spring and summer with specificity. As such, MLB's guidance on fan attendance may change in the coming weeks as circumstances change, and may also be modified later as the season progresses and conditions improve. ...

"Changes in government orders, particularly at the federal level, may necessitate changes to MLB's policies."

MLB likely will be following the same formula it used during the World Series -- i.e., requiring fans to wear masks and selling tickets to "pods" of fans who will maintain social distance between other pods. Again, tickets will be sold in limited numbers, and it's hard to imagine that we'll see anything more than 20-25 percent capacity at any venue in the early weeks of the season. As noted, local regulations will be determinative in many regards.

Obviously, as more and more people get vaccinated, it seems likely that attendance restrictions will be gradually loosened (assuming emerging COVID variants don't complicate matters). If herd immunity is indeed achieved by summer, which increasingly seems like a plausible goal, then you could see normal-ish attendance figures for the stretch drive and postseason. And wouldn't that be a welcome thing.

4. The Astros and their uncertain villain status
Speaking of fans in attendance, the Astros -- pursuant to the sign-stealing scandal that roiled baseball before COVID came along -- have yet to receive a truly vigorous booing by paying customers. Last season, no fans attended any regular season Astros games even as they advanced as far as the ALCS, so they've yet to hear about their transgressions in the typical manner.

The passage of time tends to blunt righteous outrage, and many of the key villains -- A.J. Hinch, Alex Cora, Jeff Luhnow, Carlos Beltran, and others -- have moved on elsewhere. That said, the sight of holdover Astros hitters like Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa playing in front of fans on the road for the first time since the scandal was laid bare will surely conjure up some of those latent hostilities.

So are the Astros still villains? Maybe we'll know more when they visit the Yankees for a three-game set that starts May 4. You'll recall that the Astros felled the Yankees in the perhaps tainted 2017 ALCS. Then they may be in for another round of robust heckling from the hoi polloi on Aug. 3 and 4 when they travel to L.A. for a pair against the Dodgers. You'll recall that the Astros defeated the Dodgers in seven games in the 2017 World Series. While Joe Kelly has already had his say, Dodger fans have not.

5. The Blue Jays as AL East contenders
To hear our hive mind tell it, the Yankees are the favorites in the AL East in 2021, and let's not forget that the Rays are the reigning AL champs. The Red Sox also figure to be at least vaguely relevant. So where does that leave the Blue Jays?

Wherever it leaves them, they're to be taken seriously. They're coming off a resurgent 2020 season in which they finished four games above .500 and made the expanded postseason. That constitutes a huge leap over 2019, when they went 67-95. When a team makes such huge strides from season to season, you worry about en masse regression back to the mean -- Bill James termed it the "plexiglass principle."

The Blue Jays, though, have attempted to preempt such nebulous laws by fortifying the roster with notable additions like George Springer, Marcus Semien, Kirby Yates, and Steven Matz. Those all move the needle, and that's especially the case once you consider that the Yankees and Rays at best held serve and shed some talent, respectively. It's also possible that the young to young-ish bats in the Toronto lineup will continue to enjoy skills growth. Maybe Toronto isn't the favorite in the division, but no one should be surprised if they wind up threatening 90 wins and making the postseason once again.

6. The powerhouse Padres
As noted above, the Dodgers by any measure look like the best team in MLB heading into the 2021 season. The NL West, as it turns out, may also house the second-best team in MLB. That would be the Padres.

Last season, the Padres busted out in a big way, as they won at a .617 clip -- the best win percentage in franchise history -- and returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2006. That was largely because the impressive young talent base and targeted free agent additions gelled at the same time. Now those core contributors are back, and GM A.J. Preller has complemented them with a veritable offseason haul. This winter, the Padres have signed or traded for the likes of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Mark Melancon, and Ha-seong Kim. All that for a roster that didn't seem to have many glaring needs.

Yes, the Dodgers remain the favorites, but the Padres aren't far behind them in terms of roster strength. That means the NL West race could double as a fight to determine the best team in baseball in 2021.

7. La Russa rides again
The up-and-coming White Sox ended their postseason drought last year, and thanks largely to the fruits of the rebuild they're well positioned to contend for years to come. That's why it was a puzzling decision to part ways with manager Rick Renteria. More puzzling still was the decision -- likely made from on high -- to replace him with Tony La Russa.

La Russa is a Hall of Fame manager, but he's also 76 years old and hasn't managed an MLB game in almost a decade. He'll become the third-oldest person ever to manage an MLB game, trailing just Connie Mack and Jack McKeon. No one doubts La Russa's smarts or his profoundly impressive dossier. What's doubted is whether he's a good fit for a roster that leans young and new school. It's a high-risk hire, particularly in light of La Russa's past legal issues.

Spring training play should provide some insight into how La Russa will skipper his talented team in 2021, and it may give some insight into how well his charges respond to said skippering. For good or ill, the outcome of this unlikely pairing of team and manager will be compelling.

8. Arenado's bat
It's too much to say the NL Central will hinge on how well Nolan Arenado produces in his first season with the Cardinals, but it may be the biggest single X-factor in what still looks like a tight division (note: we said "tight," not "good").

This is a bit of an unknown not because of Coors Field. Look, we have plenty of examples of Rockies hitters going on to thrive elsewhere, and DJ LeMahieu is just the most recent example. Yes, Arenado's home numbers will almost certainly decline now that he's no longer playing those home games at a mile above sea level, but playing home games in Coors Field also tends to mangle a hitter's road performance. Arenado in St. Louis will no longer have those concerns, which is why his performance in road games should improve. Call it a wash, basically, at least on a park-adjusted level.

No, the concern is Arenado's declining batted ball metrics. Since 2018, Arenado's quality of contact measures such as average exit velocity, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and hard-hit rate have all trended in the wrong direction. It's easy enough to dismiss last season's disappointing outputs because of Arenado's early shoulder injury (in addition to, you know, playing a 60-game schedule in the midst of a pandemic). However, his issues with making good contact didn't begin last year. Those indicators can be telling when it comes to future performance, and Arenado will soon be into his thirties.

None of this is to suggest that Arenado is in decline or that the Cardinals erred in acquiring him. He's still likely to be a quality hitter for some time, and that's to say nothing of his still excellent defense. Rather, it's fair to wonder whether Peak Arenado, at least at the plate, is gone for good. On that front, the 2021 season will be quite telling.

9. The Angels' latest attempt to build a winner
Once again, the annual consideration out in Orange County is whether the Angels have done enough to surround Mike Trout, still the best player in baseball, with a playoff-worthy supporting cast. Going into 2021, you can reframe it as whether the Angels have done enough to surround Trout and Anthony Rendon with a playoff-worthy supporting cast. The Angels haven't made the playoffs since 2014, and that's the only time they've advanced to the postseason during Trout's singular peak. For shame.

Drill down a bit, and you'll find that this is largely a matter of the rotation. For the past half-decade plus the Angels have trotted out some of the worst heaps of starting pitchers in all of baseball, and no matter the brilliance of your legendary center fielder it's hard to win with a dead-weight rotation. So will 2021 be any different under first-year GM Perry Minasian? They've added Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb to the rotation, and they should at least be good for volume innings. There's also the possibly quixotic hope that Dylan Bundy truly leveled up in a sustainable way last season, and Andrew Heaney projects as a solid-average. Is that enough? It might be, but bear in mind that we're back to a 10-team playoff field for 2021. The sensible assumption is that Trout will once again be home by October, but it would be nice to be wrong about that one of these years.

10. CBA tensions and run-up
Insofar as off-the-field matters are concerned, the 2021 season is prelude to a potential labor war. That's because the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which is the negotiated document that governs the working relationship between players and owners, is set to expire on Dec. 1. MLB has had an unprecedented run of labor peace, but that peace has become an uneasy one.

Owners in the next round of CBA negotiations will no doubt want to come away with an expanded postseason while in exchange giving up as little as possible. The players, meantime, want to address their declining share of league revenues through structural means. To accomplish that, the players may need to address tanking, work to lessen the penalties of the luxury tax, win assurances against service time manipulation, and reconfigure the structure of free agency. Those are all very heavy lifts.

Layer on top of that the tensions stemming from ownership's bad-faith posturing leading up to the 2020 and 2021 seasons, and it's entirely possible that we see MLB's first labor stoppage since 1994-95. That could take the form of a December lockout by owners, or the players could strike in an effort to win concessions from the league. Either way, the guess right now is that it'll be an ugly process.

In the meantime, let's play some baseball.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-17-2021, 02:13 PM

MLB free agency: A's agree to sign relievers Yusmeiro Petit and Sergio Romo

Petit has had great success in the A's bullpen the past three seasons; Romo returns to the Bay Area

he Oakland Athletics have agreed to sign free-agent reliever Yusmeiro Petit, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal further reports that the A's have also signed Sergio Romo.

Petit has enjoyed good success his last three years in Oakland and the A's lost late-inning relievers Joakim Soria and Liam Hendriks to free agency, so the reunion here made a ton of sense for both sides.

In fact, with Hendriks taking his elite-level closing chops to Chicago, the door is open for a new closer.

In 26 outings last season, Petit had a 1.66 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 17 strikeouts against five walks in 21 2/3 innings. In his three years in Oakland, he's pitched to a 2.73 ERA (154 ERA+) and 0.94 WHIP in 197 2/3 innings.

Romo, 37, returns to the Bay Area, as the best years of his career came in San Francisco. Last season with the Twins, Romo had a 4.05 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 23 strikeouts in 20 innings.

As noted, the A's need a new closer and one of these two could well be the guy. Petit only has six career saves, but has found success in high-leverage spots in his years with the club. Romo is a former All-Star closer and even had five saves last season. Lefty Jake Diekman and righty Lou Trivino figure to be the primary competition for the two in the fight to close.

Though most big names are off the board, there are still several likely-helpful relievers left on the market. We ranked Petit the No. 56 free agent heading into the offseason. Of our top 60, the following relievers are left unsigned to this point: Trevor Rosenthal (38), Shane Greene (46), Tyler Clippard (58) and Tony Watson (59). Possible starter or reliever Trevor Cahill (53) is also available.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-17-2021, 02:14 PM

Angels' Albert Pujols undecided about playing future beyond 2021 MLB season

Pujols turned 41 last month and is entering the last season of his 10-year contract

Los Angeles Angels slugger and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols is entering the final season of his 10-year, $240 million contract. He turned 41 last month and his skills are greatly diminished. But, despite that, Pujols has not yet made any plans for his future beyond 2021. His baseball future remains undecided.

Here's what Pujols told ESPN's Enrique Rojas:

"Right now, I don't have a plan for the future," Pujols told ESPN Digital on Tuesday.

"I have worked all winter to be ready from the first day of training. I will take this year day by day, without creating expectations. There are things that happen that you cannot control," said Pujols.

"I will try not to think about the future, but what I can do now for this organization. My body will dictate what I should do later," he added.

Pujols hit .224/.270/.395 during the abbreviated 2020 season and he owns a .242/.291/.406 batting line in more than 1,800 plate appearances over the last four seasons. That works out to an 87 OPS+, or 13 percent below league average. At his peak, he was one of the greatest hitters ever, though he hasn't been that player in several years now.

Should he decide to continue playing, Pujols figures to have trouble finding a roster spot in 2022, even if the National League adopts the universal DH. It's been a half-decade since he was even a league average hitter, and he doesn't provide any defensive or baserunning value. Pujols is a clubhouse leader who mentors young players, but that's probably not enough to get signed.

If this is Pujols' final year, it should feature some milestones. He needs 84 hits to pass Paul Molitor and take over sole possession of 10th place on the all-time list, and he needs 144 total bases to pass Willie Mays and move into sole possession of third place on the all-time list. He is currently fifth all-time in homers (662), third in RBI (2,100), and fifth in extra-base hits (1,347).

**StarDust Bum** · 02-18-2021, 03:42 AM

Padres, Fernando Tatis Jr. agree to mammoth 14-year, $340 million contract extension, per reports

The star shortstop has committed to a record-breaking long-term deal to stay in San Diego

Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres have agreed to a record-breaking 14-year, $340 million long-term contract extension, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune and Fansided's Robert Murray reports. The star shortstop's extension will include a full no-trade clause for all 14 years of the deal, according to Scott Miller.

Tatis Jr., who's still just 22 years of age, has thrived throughout his young career. In 143 games across two seasons with San Diego, Tatis has batted .301/.374/.582 (154 OPS+) with 39 home runs and 27 stolen bases. That's exceptional production for any player, let alone a young shortstop. This past season, Tatis won a Silver Slugger and finished third in the NL MVP balloting. Tatis' performance to date is in keeping with his former status as the consensus top prospect in all of baseball, which is in part why the Padres are comfortable making such a large investment in him.

Our own Mike Axisa recently pegged Tatis as a strong candidate for an extension. Here's what he wrote at the time:

"The best benchmark at this service-time level is Alex Bregman, who signed a six-year extension worth $100.6 million with the Astros in March 2019. A six-year deal would buy out Tatis' four remaining years of team control plus two free agent years, and allow him to become a free agent at age 27. That contract values Bregman's free agent years at $30.5 million apiece. If we stick with that and turn the six-year deal into a 15-year deal, we're talking $375 million in guaranteed money. It's very possible Tatis could receive a $400 million extension in the not-too-distant future."

As it turned out, Tatis basically hit that mark, albeit for 14 years instead of 15, hence the slightly lower overall value. Tatis' $340 million extension once finalized will become the largest in Padres' franchise history, breaking the record set by Tatis' fellow member of the left side of the infield Manny Machado ($300 million). It will also become the third-largest contract in MLB history in terms of total value behind just Mike Trout's and Mookie Betts' current deals. At 14 years, Tatis' extension is the longest contract, which breaks the record of 13 years shared by Giancarlo Stanton and Bryce Harper.

Largest contracts in MLB history:

1. Mike Trout, $426,500,000
2. Mookie Betts, $365,000,000
3. Fernando Tatis Jr., $340,000,000

The Padres and general manager A.J. Preller now have one of the brightest young stars to hit MLB in a long time locked up for more than a decade. The deal also caps a highly successful offseason for Preller and the Padres. Prior to this reported agreement, the Padres most notably fortified the rotation with trades for had Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove.

Coming off a 2020 season in which they made the postseason and logged the highest win percentage in team history, the Padres are positioned to contend for years to come -- with Tatis, his star power, and his MVP upside helming those efforts every step of the way.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-18-2021, 03:01 PM

MLB free agency: A's sign reliever Trevor Rosenthal to one-year, $11 million deal, per report

Rosenthal looked like a top-notch closer last season

After losing one of baseball's top closers to free agency earlier this offseason in Liam Hendriks, the Oakland Athletics appear to have found his replacement. The team has agreed to terms with free-agent reliever Trevor Rosenthal, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The deal is reportedly for one year and $11 million.

It's been quite the ride for the 30-year-old Rosenthal. He was an outstanding closer for the Cardinals in 2014-15, lost his job in 2016, got it back and was really settling into it in 2017, but then fell injured. After Tommy John surgery cost him the 2018 season. The 2019 season was a disaster as he pitched with both the Nationals and Tigers.

Last season, however, Rosenthal re-established himself as a worthwhile closer. In stops with the Royals (14 appearances) and Padres (nine), he pitched to a 1.90 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with 38 strikeouts against eight walks in 23 2/3 innings. He saved 11 games in 12 chances.

He was all over the Statcast leaderboards, inducing weak contact, getting swings-and-misses and lighting up the radar gun. it. It wasn't just the numbers. Rosenthal's stuff was electric and he looked the part. He was back and possibly better than ever, if we can get all cliché about it.

Of course, there's the spotty and inconsistent history, so we'll need to see it for a full season. That's why Rosenthal got just the one season in free agency and it took this long.

The A's recently added Sergio Romo and re-signed Yusmeiro Petit to help shore up their bullpen. Lou Trivino and lefty Jake Diekman also figure in the setup picture in front of Rosenthal, who surely was signed to be the full-time closer for manager Bob Melvin.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-18-2021, 03:05 PM

Thursday, February 18, 2021
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
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CHC
Sergio Alcantara Designated for Assignment
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CHC
Brandon Workman Signed as Free Agent ( 2021)(one-year contract)
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NYM
Brian Dozier Retired
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SD
Fernando Tatis Signed ( 2021-2034)(14-year contract extension)

Wednesday, February 17, 2021
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
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BOS
Kevin Plawecki Placed on 10-Day IL (COVID-19 injured list)
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BOS
Ronaldo Hernandez Traded From Tampa Bay (for RHP Chris Mazza, four-player deal)
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CHC
Pedro Strop Signed to a Minor League Contract
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CHC
Jake Arrieta Signed as Free Agent ( 2021; Opt 2022)(one-year contract)
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CHC
Cody Allen Retired
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CHC
Kyle Ryan Placed on 10-Day IL (COVID-19 injured list (positive test))
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MIA
John Curtiss Traded From Tampa Bay (for 1B Evan Edwards)
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MIA
Harold Ramirez Designated for Assignment
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MIA
Adam Duvall Signed as Free Agent ( 2021; Opt 2022)(one-year contract)
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MIA
Jeff Brigham Placed on 60-Day IL (Undisclosed injury)
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MIN
Brandon Waddell Outrighted to Minors
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PHI
Brad Miller Signed as Free Agent ( 2021)(one-year contract)
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PHI
Seranthony Dominguez Placed on 60-Day IL (Recovery from right elbow surgery)
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PHI
Tony Watson Signed to a Minor League Contract
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PIT
Jose Soriano Placed on 60-Day IL (Recovery from right elbow surgery)
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PIT
Tyler Anderson Signed as Free Agent ( 2021)(one-year contract)
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SF
John Brebbia Placed on 60-Day IL (Recovery from right elbow surgery)
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SF
Jake McGee Signed as Free Agent ( 2021-2022; Opt 2023)(two-year contract)
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TB
Rich Hill Signed as Free Agent ( 2021)(one-year contract)
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TB
Oliver Drake Signed as Free Agent ( 2021)(one-year contract)
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TB
Colin Poche Placed on 60-Day IL (Recovery from left elbow surgery)
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TB
Jalen Beeks Placed on 60-Day IL (Recovery from left elbow surgery)
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TB
Chris Mazza Traded From Boston (for C Ronaldo Hernandez, 4-player deal)
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TB
Jeffrey Springs Traded From Boston (for C Ronaldo Hernandez, 4-player deal)

**Udog** · 02-22-2021, 12:23 PM

MLB's New "Dead" Ball Could Impact Over/Under Betting
Andrew Caley

There has been a steady climb in home runs since 2016 and Major League Baseball is trying to keep the ball in the park by rolling out a new "deader" Rawlings ball for the 2021 season.

Major League Baseball betting - specifically Over/Under betting - could see a shift in results compared to recent years with news that MLB is modifying the ball heading into the 2021 season.

According to a story by The Athletic, the baseball’s construction will be altered slightly in essence to deaden the ball. That has savvy MLB total bettors on high alert after watching record numbers of home runs the past two seasons.

Will deadening the ball result in the dip in dingers that MLB is looking for and in turn drop scoring slightly, creating a boon in Unders?

We dig into some MLB betting stats and talk to oddsmakers about how this could factor into betting baseball totals in 2021.

Betting the old ball

Major League Baseball won't admit that they juiced the old ball (rather pointing to inconsistent seams), but the proof is in the pudding... or the pop.

Starting in 2016 there was a spike in home runs like never before. Prior to 2016, there had been only one season in Major League history with a home run rate of 1.15 (average HR hit by teams per game) or higher. It has happened every year since 2016, peaking in 2019 at 1.39.

In short, the Top 4 dinger-friendly seasons in baseball history have been in four of the last five years, and 2020 was on pace to make it five of six.

Those big flys boosted scoring in that span, with MLB games seeing an average of 8.96 total runs per game in 2016 and jumping to 9.3 combined runs per contest in 2020 - an average of 9.224 runs per game in that five-year stretch compared to just 8.436 collective runs an outing in the five years prior (2011-2015).

So did all those extra home runs produce a windfall for MLB Over bettors?

The short answer is no. Sportsbooks are incredibly good at setting MLB totals and while there may have been surges of scoring and Over results, those were promptly snuffed out as books adjusted their data. The Over/Under numbers are typically set late the night before or early the day before games, so books are able to adjust to ebbs and flows quite rapidly.

In fact, despite the explosion of home runs the Under has been a slightly better bet in baseball, cashing 50.7 percent of the time since 2016 with just 11 teams returning money on the Over during that span.

Betting the new ball

In early laboratory tests, the new "dead" ball is said to travel one to two feet shorter when hit over 375 feet, according to MLB which is changing the core and the weight (2.8 grams less) of the 2021 version of the Rawlings ball. So just how much is that one or two feet less going to influence the way sportsbooks set MLB Over/Under totals?

Phil Gray, head of trading operations at Canadian-based sportsbook Sports Interaction, says baseball fans shouldn't expect any sort of knee-jerk reaction from oddsmakers on MLB totals anytime soon.

“Certainly, we would need to some historical data, I would think, before you’d see any major change,” Gray told Covers. “I would like to see at least a full season of data at the minimum.”

According to Gray, baseball odds, more than any other sport, move on early action. MLB totals generally move early in the morning when they get bet into by the statistic-based bettors, whose opinions are held in high regard by bookmakers. That obviously makes MLB totals a very fluid market.

Home run futures

One place MLB bettors might want to take a look at is the preseason player prop markets, particularly individual player home run totals.

According to The Athletic report, changes to the ball could result in a five percent dip in home runs in 2021 and will be like, “adding five feet of outfield walls to every wall in the big leagues.”

With no historical data for books or bettors to go on, this change could open up value on taking the Under when it comes to home run totals for the majors' biggest bats.

Effect on pitchers

While home runs are way up since 2016, it needs to be noted that hitting mentalities have drastically shifted in Major League Baseball and that's also led to an uptick in strikeouts for opposing pitchers.

The "swing for the fences" mentality is more prevalent than ever, and because of that there were new highs in strikeout rate (SO per team per game) every year from 2008 to 2019. The 2020 MLB campaign boasted a strikeout rate of 8.68 per game - the second-highest mark in baseball history, down from a peak of 8.81 in 2019.

The biggest change to the new 2021 ball that could impact pitchers is the decrease in weight while keeping the ball the same size. This could decrease a pitcher's velocity, although MLB believes otherwise.

The use of humidors, which prevents the balls from drying out and becoming harder, in select ballparks may also play a role in pitcher/ball performance this upcoming schedule. There are five teams currently using humidors to store baseballs (Colorado, Arizona, Seattle, Boston, and the New York Mets) and five more will start in 2021 (those teams were not disclosed).

If the new ball does have a noticeable impact on scoring - and therefore MLB totals - early in the spring, baseball bettors will want to be quick to react to that shift, as bookies will be just as swift to adjust their Over/Under numbers. As always, no matter the make of the ball, betting the best number is the smartest approach to totals.

“If you do like totals though, whatever side, get them very early," says Gray.

**Udog** · 02-22-2021, 12:38 PM

2021 MLB Win Totals: Dodgers Projected to Lead Majors

After winning the 2020 World Series, the Dodgers signed prized free agent Trevor Bauer and are projected to lead the Majors in wins.

Pitchers and catchers have started to report, meaning a new season is just around the corner. That also means that baseball betting is back, as MLB win totals have begun trickling in.

The plan is to go back to a full 162-game season this year, so MLB Over/Under win totals will look normal again.

Let's take a look and see the MLB win totals projections of all 30 teams for the 2021 season.

Teams projected for most wins in 2021

The Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to have the most wins in baseball this season at 101.5. After winning the 2020 World Series and signing prized free agent starter Trevor Bauer, this should come as no surprise.

The New York Yankees, at 95.5 wins, and the San Diego Padres (94.5) round out the Top-3 projected MLB 2021 win totals. New York is always a threat out of the American League, while the Padres made the playoffs last year for the first time since 2006 and added to an already talented team during a busy offseason.

Teams projected for fewest wins in 2021

The Pittsburgh Pirates (58.5), Colorado Rockies and Baltimore Orioles (64.5) are projected to have the fewest victories. They're the only teams with their MLB Over/Under win totals coming in under 65.

Pittsburgh and Baltimore are going through difficult rebuilds, while Colorado traded franchise cornerstone Nolan Arenado to the St. Louis Cardinals during the offseason.

2021 MLB Over/Under win totals

When Vegas releases MLB win totals

Traditionally, sportsbooks open MLB regular-season win totals odds a few weeks before teams report to Spring Training facilities in February, once free agency has settled and we have a good idea of what rosters will look like. But some shops are offering these wagers earlier and earlier in the new year.

How to bet MLB season win totals

Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.

Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team - based on past success, returning personnel and strength of schedule - and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.

On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets – also known as vig or juice – depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.

Last year, for example, oddsmakers calculated the Yankees to win 37 games but felt like there was a better chance of them winning 38 games rather than 36. Therefore, they set the Yanks with a win total of 37 but increased the vig on the OVER to -130 (bet $1.30 to win $1) and decreased the vig on the UNDER to +110 (win $1.10 for every $1 bet).

OVER 37 WINS (-130)
UNDER 37 WINS (+110)

Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.

**Udog** · 02-22-2021, 12:50 PM

Cy Young Odds 2021: New York aces lead

After a debut season with the Yankees that saw Gerrit Cole go 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA, New York's ace is the AL Cy Young favorite (+350).

The long baseball offseason is nearly over, with pitchers and catchers beginning to report to spring training. With the focus already turned to the 2021 MLB betting season, odds to win the Cy Young award are back on the board.

We'll take a look at the NL Cy Young odds and AL Cy Young odds for the upcoming season, breaking down the favorites in each league, a couple of sharp bets and who has the best betting value.

Odds to win AL Cy Young award

Favorite to win the AL Cy Young award

Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees (+350)

In his first season with the Yankees, after signing a record-setting nine-year, $324 million deal, Gerrit Cole lived up to the hype in New York. The ace went 7-3 with a 2.84 ERA, striking out 94 batters across 73 innings. While the Yankees would fall short of the World Series, Cole struck out 12 or more batters in three postseason appearances.

A three-time All-Star, Cole will be looking for his first Cy Young award in 2021 after finishing in the Top-5 in votes in each of the previous three years. On a stacked Yankees team, Cole is in a good position to push for the award.

Sharp bet to win the AL Cy Young award

Hyun Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays (+1,300)

It didn't take long for Hyun Jin Ryu to take command of the pitcher's mound in Toronto after trading in his Dodgers digs for the Blue Jays. In Ryu's first season with Toronto, the ace went 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA, striking out 72 batters across 67 innings. His strikeouts per nine innings rose by nearly two, from 8.0 to 9.7, which was on par with his sparkling 2018 season.

With little else set behind him in the Jays' rotation, Ryu will be among the most valuable starters in the Majors this season. If he can again live up to those expectations, Top-3 finishes in Cy Young voting in 2019 and '20 could culminate in a win in 2021.

Best value bet to win the AL Cy Young award

Dallas Keuchel, Chicago White Sox (+2,200)

Like most World Series contenders, the White Sox boast talent beyond their ace in Lucas Giolito. Former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel is no slouch himself and could absolutely enter the mix a year after finishing fifth in Cy Young voting.

A 2020 season that saw Keuchel finish 6-2 with a 1.77 ERA was outstanding for the veteran, but just 42 strikeouts across 63.1 innings pitched put a cap on any real Cy Young consideration. If Chicago can meet expectations in 2021 and Keuchel can replicate his strong 2020, while upping his strikeout rate, he could be in the mix for the second honor of his career.

Odds to win NL Cy Young award

Favorite to win the NL Cy Young award

Jacob deGrom, New York Mets (+500)

Despite maintaining his dominant form, Mets ace Jacob deGrom was unable to capture his third consecutive Cy Young award in 2020. However, in going 4-2 in a shortened season, deGrom lowered his ERA from 2019, finishing at 2.38 while striking out 104 batters in 68 innings.

After finishing third in NL Cy Young voting last season, deGrom starts 2021 back atop the odds board. With the Mets expected to compete for October baseball and no drop off in sight for deGrom, he is a rightful favorite.

Sharp bet to win the NL Cy Young award

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres (+1,000)

Following an excellent final season with the Cubs, in which Yu Darvish went 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA, the veteran finished second in Cy Young voting for the second time in his career. Now in San Diego with the Padres, Darvish will be a part of a stacked rotation that also features Dinelson Lamet and Blake Snell.

If Darvish can rise above Lamet and Snell to take hold of the lead role in San Diego's rotation, he would find himself in the thick of the Cy Young conversation. With a blossoming rivalry with the Dodgers and a blossoming superstar in Fernando Tatis Jr., the Padres will be in the middle of the MLB universe in 2021. Darvish can stand to benefit from that.

Best value bet to win the NL Cy Young award

Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds (+3,300)

With Trevor Bauer leaving Cincinnati over the offseason, the Reds will look to Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray to step up even further. Gray is coming off of a solid season, finishing 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA, striking out 72 in 56 innings (good for a career-high strikeout rate of 30.6 percent). The righty's biggest challenge to emerge as a long shot Cy Young contender is Castillo, an excellent starter in his own right.

Replicating his elite strikeout numbers will be key to a Cy Young push for Gray in 2021, but if he can do so while taking hold of the Reds' rotation, we like him as a long shot contender.

Understanding Cy Young odds

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Justin Verlander looked to have the AL Cy Young locked up last September, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number.

Justin Verlander -300

That means that a bettor in September had to wager $300 to win $100 by betting on Verlander. Before this year's race even began, every candidate had a (+) sign in front of their number.

Gerrit Cole +325

With Cole's current odds, a bettor stands to profit $325 for every $100 wagered on him.

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

How to bet futures odds

Futures betting is different than betting on an individual game because you need to consider the long haul as opposed to a single event. Here are a few tips to keep in mind when betting futures odds.

Change your strategy at different points in the season

While some futures bets must be placed before the season begins and are then removed off the board (such as team win totals), other wagers will change odds as the season goes on.

If you are wagering money on a futures bet with changing odds keep in mind that there is less variance at the beginning of the season (when more players and teams are still in contention) and more variance as the season goes on (when teams and players at the top separate themselves from those at the bottom).

In the preseason and beginning of the season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. But as the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is practically like giving your money away.

Look for value with underdogs

While the bigger names tend to be strong favorites, there are also live long shots that can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system.

Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing years due to injuries or other factors. If you're lucky you might be able to catch them in a bounce-back year.

Follow the narrative

When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.

For example, in LeBron James' first season in Miami he was viewed as a villain or heel by the media, and Derrick Rose - who ended up winning MVP - was the perfect foil for that. When Ron Dayne won the Heisman trophy back in 1999 it was viewed by many as a well-deserved reward for his entire career at Wisconsin.

Research historical trends

Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean.

The NBA MVP, for example, almost always goes to a player on an elite regular-season team. While the Heisman trophy is almost exclusively given to a quarterback or running back - and over the last couple of decades has been overwhelmingly handed out to QBs.

Identifying those trends is a good way to separate the true contenders from the pretenders.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2021, 02:13 PM

MLB spring training: Picking each team's most exciting non-roster invitee

From top prospects to journeyman veterans, there are plenty of notable names to watch in camp

Spring training has arrived. Camps across Arizona and Florida opened this week, and one week from Sunday, Cactus League and Grapefruit League play will begin. I can't wait. I am so ready for the offseason to be over.

Spring training games are fun in their own way, mostly because they allow us to see players we usually don't get to see during the regular season. Top prospects, reclamation project veterans, and many other minor leaguers will rub elbows with the big-league team during exhibition games before heading to the minors in April.

Over the last few days the 30 MLB clubs announced their non-roster invitees (NRIs) to spring training. Those are players who will be in big-league camp despite not being on the 40-man roster. Some NRIs are top prospects, some are journeymen veterans, and most are somewhere in between. The big-league coaching staff will get a look at all of them.

As always, some NRIs are more interesting than others. Two years ago Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso both went from NRI to Rookie of the Year. Trevor Rosenthal went from NRI to closing games for a postseason team in 2020. Inevitably, a few NRIs will make an impact in 2021. And, inevitably, some will have a big spring and show it was all a fluke in April. That's baseball.

With spring training arriving and exhibition games coming next week, this is as good a time as any to examine each team's most exciting NRI. As a reminder, all players on the 40-man roster will be in big league camp automatically, a list that includes top prospects like Luis Patino and Alex Kirilloff. Now here is each team's most exciting NRI.

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Diamondbacks
1B Seth Beer. The Diamondbacks have three of the most exciting outfield prospects in baseball in Corbin Carroll, Kristian Robinson, and Alek Thomas, but, sadly, none will be in big-league camp as an NRI. Lame, D-Backs. Lame. As a result, Arizona's NRI list is heavy on veterans, so Beer gets the nod here almost by default. The No. 28 pick in the 2018 draft came over in the Zack Greinke trade and is a three true outcomes type with a knack for elevating the ball from the left side of the plate. Beer just might be Arizona's first baseman of the future.

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Braves
SS Braden Shewmake. The No. 21 pick in the 2019 draft, Shewmake is a scout's favorite because he does everything well. He's improved his defense and gets the bat on the ball consistently, and he's a very smart and instinctual player. Shewmake lacks power, the most difficult tool to project in the juiced ball and launch angle era, but he does everything else is a very fun to watch. The Braves also brought defense-first catcher Shea Langeliers, the No. 9 pick in the 2019 draft, to camp as an NRI.

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Orioles
C Adley Rutschman. With all due respect to Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey, who are trying to revive their careers, and Heston Kjerstad, the No. 2 pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, Rutschman is the easy call here. The No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft is one of the best prospects in the game and the future face of the Orioles franchise. He's a switch-hitter catcher who projects to hit for average and power, walk a ton, and play excellent defense. He's also lauded for his leadership skills. A potential franchise player, through and through. This should be his last spring training as an NRI. Rutschman will be a big leaguer before long.

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Red Sox
OF Jarren Duran. Really fun group of NRIs for the Red Sox. They brought their top two prospects, infielders Jeter Downs and Triston Casas, to camp, ditto shortstop and 2020 first-round pick Nick Yorke. Duran gets the call here following his MVP winning performance in winter ball in Puerto Rico. The former seventh-round pick reportedly made some adjustments geared toward elevating the ball more often at the alternate site last year, and that was after hitting .322/.376/.446 in the minors from 2018-19. Duran is a fast riser and not far from the big leagues.

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Cubs
RHP Brendon Little. Sorry, Cubs fans, but your team has the least-exciting group of NRIs in the game this spring. That's because many of their top prospects are already on the 40-man roster and will be in big-league camp automatically (Adbert Alzolay, Miguel Amaya, Brailyn Marquez, Christopher Morel, etc.), and others like 2020 first rounder Ed Howard and 2020 second rounder Burl Carraway did not get a camp invite. Little, the No. 27 pick in the 2017 draft, has a very nice curveball and it's not out of the question that he can pitch his way into a bullpen job.

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White Sox
1B Andrew Vaughn. Look at the White Sox roster and it is painfully obvious they are keeping a spot warm for Vaughn. They currently have Adam Engel and Eloy Jimenez penciled into left field and DH, and while Engel is a nice player, it feels like only a matter of time until Vaughn takes over at DH and pushes Jimenez back into left field. Vaughn, the No. 3 pick in the 2019 draft, has a devastating offensive skill set and was a career .374/.495/.688 hitter in college. Expect the ChiSox to turn him loose early in 2021, after a few weeks in the minors to get up to speed after the lost season (and/or manipulate service time).

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Reds
RHP Hunter Greene. The Reds brought infielder Jonathan India, the No. 5 pick in 2018, and lefty Nick Lodolo, the No. 7 pick in 2019, to camp as NRIs, but all eyes will be on Greene, the No. 2 pick in 2017. He completed his Tommy John surgery rehab last year and was at the alternate site -- Greene has not pitched in an official game since July 2018 -- and now it's time to get the show on the road. Greene has touched 100 mph when healthy and he is simply one of the most exciting prospects in the game. It'll be good to see him in games again.

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Indians
OF George Valera. Valera turned only 20 in November and will be one of the youngest players in a big-league camp this spring. He's raw but he has power -- Valera swatted eight homers in 46 games against mostly college-aged kids in the short season New York-Penn League in 2019 -- and the sort of whippy swing and bat-to-ball ability that point to huge offensive upside. Cleveland will have several of their top prospects in camp as NRIs this spring, including catcher Bo Naylor and infielders Brayan Rocchio and Tyler Freeman, though few prospects in the sport are as exciting as Valera. Get a look at him while you can, before he's reassigned to minor-league camp.

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Rockies
LHP Ryan Rolison. The Rockies opted not to invite 2019 first rounder Michael Toglia nor 2020 first rounder Zac Veen to big league camp, so Rolison, the No. 22 pick in 2018, is the guy here. He is the organization's top pitching prospect as a southpaw who succeeds with command and pitchability rather than overpowering stuff. The lost 2020 season threw a wrench into Rolison's development, but he could see the big leagues in 2021.

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Tigers
1B Spencer Torkelson. With all due respect to Riley Greene, the No. 5 pick in the 2019 draft and one of my favorite prospects in the minors, Torkelson is an easy call. The No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft has the look of a monstrous middle-of-the-order hitter, someone who hits for average and power and posts huge on-base percentages. The Tigers are loaded with young pitching (Matt Manning, Casey Mize, and Tarik Skubal, all of whom are on the 40-man roster), and now they're starting to add some position player talent in Torkelson and Greene. Torkelson could be up at some point in 2021. It would be an upset if he's not, really.

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Astros
C Korey Lee. The Astros have a pitching-heavy farm system and just about all their top arms are on the 40-man roster (Bryan Abreu, Luis Garcia, Forrest Whitley, etc.). Lee, the No. 32 pick in the 2019 draft, has power but hits the ball on the ground too often, and Houston is working with him to elevate the ball more. He's a good receiver and athletic enough to dabble at shortstop and in the outfield in college. This spring will be our first real chance to see Lee in games, and see how well he's progressing at the plate.

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Royals
SS Bobby Witt Jr. My heart wanted to go with Wade Davis, who is on a minor-league contract and looking to revive his career outside Coors Field, but I just can't do it. Not when a prospect as good as Witt is sitting right there. Witt, the No. 2 pick in the 2019 draft, is a tools freak who grades out as above-average across the board. He projects to hit for average and power, steal bases, and save runs in the field. Witt is a potential franchise cornerstone, someone whose game could look a lot like Trevor Story's at his peak. Top pitching prospects Jackson Kowar, Asa Lacy, and Daniel Lynch will all be in camp this year as well, giving Kansas City one of the most exciting groups of NRIs in the game.

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Angels
OF Jordyn Adams. The Angels had a thing for ultra-tools outfielders under former GM Billy Eppler, and Adams is next in line after Jo Adell. He's an electric athlete who was committed to play baseball and football at North Carolina, and he brings top of the line speed and big power potential to the table. Squint your eyes and you can see 30/30 potential with defense that approaches Gold Glove caliber. Adams is only 21 and he's yet to play above High Class-A, though he's one of those players you can't take your eyes off when he's on the field.

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Dodgers
RHP Josiah Gray. The Dodgers always have a fun collection of NRIs and this year's group includes three recent first rounders (righty Bobby Miller and infielders Kody Hoese and Michael Busch), though we're going with Gray here. Acquired from the Reds in the big Yasiel Puig/Alex Wood trade a few years ago, Gray broke out as a prospect in 2019 and now ranks among the most exciting young arms in the sport. He has a big fastball and a wipeout slider, and even Los Angeles' incredible rotation depth may not be enough to prevent him from making his MLB debut in 2021.

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Marlins
RHP Max Meyer. Very prospect-laden group of NRIs for the Marlins. They'll have three recent first-round pick outfielders in camp (JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Connor Scott) as well as Meyer, the No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft. He struck out 46 batters in 27 2/3 innings in college last spring and was the consensus most MLB-ready player in last year's draft class, though the Marlins opted not to call him up. Meyer has an upper-90s fastball and a wipeout Brad Lidge-esque slider. It is devastating. It's unlikely spring training will be the only time we see Meyer on the field with big leaguers in 2021.

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Brewers
OF Garrett Mitchell. For a team without a top-tier farm system, the Brewers sure will have a lot of fun prospects in camp this spring. Shortstop Brice Turang is a slash-and-dash speedster and lefty Ethan Small was the team's first-round pick in 2019. Mitchell gets the nod here because he's a freak athlete with tremendous speed and Gold Glove-caliber defensive tools, and he will put a mistake into orbit. Will he improve his approach enough for that power to play in games? Unclear, but the development process for the No. 20 pick in the 2020 draft begins as an NRI this spring.

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Twins
SS Royce Lewis. Lewis was the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft and I feel like prospect fatigue is setting in. He hasn't had that huge breakout season yet and is merely a great prospect rather than a super-duper-elite prospect, though the athleticism and tools remain tantalizing. Lewis might wind up in center field long-term rather than shortstop. He's an exciting prospect wherever he lands and I'm looking forward to seeing him in camp this spring. It may not feel like it at this point, but Lewis is still only 21.

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Mets
RHP Matthew Allan. The Mets are bringing all their top prospects to spring training as NRIs, including catcher Francisco Alvarez, infielders Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio, and 2020 first rounder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Allen is the club's top pitching prospect and he's the pick here thanks to his big fastball and hammer curveball. He is a certifiable pitching nerd who is into analytics and has a very advanced feel for his craft for a 19-year-old. Few things are an exciting as a high-end pitching prospect who knows what he's doing.

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Yankees
C Austin Wells. Alas, the Yankees did not bring uber-prospect Jasson Dominguez to camp, which is understandable seeing how he's a just-turned 18-year-old who has yet to play a professional game. They did, however, bring Wells, their 2020 first round pick, to spring training. He has some similarities to Kyle Schwarber as a power lefty bat who probably won't catch long-term, but could hit his way to the big leagues the year after being drafted. The Yankees tend to be conservative with their NRIs and the fact Wells will be in camp tells us they have big plans for him in 2021.

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Athletics
SS Nick Allen. Jed Lowrie! No, kidding, but Lowrie is in camp as an NRI and vying to have a third stint with the Athletics. Allen, meanwhile, is an undersized (listed at 5-foot-8 and 166 lbs.) bat control freak who checks every gritty and scrappy and gutty cliche box there is. Will he hit for enough power to keep pitchers honest? That's the big question. We almost certainly won't see Allen in the big leagues this year, but he will win over many fans during Cactus League play with his hard-nosed style.

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Phillies
SS Bryson Stott. I hoped the Phillies would bring Mick Abel, their 2020 first-round pick and one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the sport, to camp this year, but no luck. The 19-year-old will report to minor-league camp, which is where he belongs at this point in his career. Stott, the No. 14 pick in the 2019 draft, gets the nod here instead. He's one of those "do everything well but nothing exceptionally" players who draws rave reviews for his instincts and makeup. Just a solid, no nonsense ballplayer. Also, did you know Neftali Feliz is still pitching? He'll be in camp with the Phillies as an NRI.

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Pirates
RHP Quinn Priester. Not many prospects managed to improve their stock while at the alternate site in 2021, but Priester did it. His velocity jumped into the upper-90s and his curveball, which was always great, also stood out. Priester, the No. 18 pick in the 2019 draft, is a pitching nerd who used analytics to better himself and that's exciting. The Pirates are rebuilding and will have many of their best prospects in camp as NRIs, including outfielder Travis Swaggerty (No. 10 pick in 2018) and infielder Nick Gonzalez (No. 7 pick in 2020). Gonzalez hit .399/.502/.747 in his college career. True story.

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Cardinals
IF Nolan Gorman. Few prospects in the minors have as much power as Gorman. The problem? The No. 19 pick in the 2018 draft is a natural third baseman, and Nolan Arenado has the hot corner locked down in St. Louis long-term. No matter, Gorman recently approached the Cardinals about playing second base, and has been working out there in the early days of camp. You can hide a poor or inexperienced defender at second these days thanks to the shift and the fly ball/strikeout heavy nature of the game. Gorman at second base will be a #thingtowatch this spring. Shoutout to lefty Matthew Liberatore, the prospect the Cardinals received in the Randy Arozarena trade. He's another NRI to watch.

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Padres
SS CJ Abrams. Despite all their high-profile offseason trades, the Padres still have a dynamite farm system, and will bring top pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore and 2020 first rounder Robert Hassell to spring training as NRIs. Abrams, the No. 6 pick in the 2019 draft, is a WOW player with electric tools who projects to be a true impact player at the MLB level. Chances are he'll play center field long-term now that Fernando Tatis Jr. is signed through 2034. No matter where he plays, Abrams will add to San Diego's fun and exciting (and excellent) team. He's a must-watch player this spring.

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Giants
SS Marco Luciano. Had the 2020 minor-league season not been canceled, Luciano might've been in the conversation for the best prospect in baseball right now. He's that talented. The 19-year-old has Gary Sheffield-esque bat speed and there is an explosiveness to his game that is just not normal. Luciano is a special talent and the next great Giants superstar. He is still a few years away from the big leagues, however, so make sure you get a good look at him while you can this spring.

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Mariners
OF Jarred Kelenic. Tough, tough call here. Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez might be the two best outfield prospects in the game, and fortunately for Mariners fans, they won't have to pick between the two this spring. They can watch both. I'm going with Kelenic here because he's more of an all-around player who impacts the game at the plate, in the field, and on the bases. Rodriguez is more of a brute force masher, and hey, that's fun too. Whenever the Mariners return to the postseason, those two figure to lead the way.

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Rays
SS Wander Franco. Franco is the best prospect in baseball and maybe the best prospect the game has seen since Bryce Harper in 2012. He's a do-it-all wunderkind who is MLB ready or damn close to it despite not yet turning 20 and spending last year at the alternate site rather than playing in actual games. The Rays have the game's best farm system and there will be prospects galore in camp as NRIs (righty Shane Baz, infielders Greg Jones and Xavier Edwards, catchers Blake Hunt and Heriberto Hernandez, etc.), but Franco stands out from the pack. He is special and he will be in the big leagues soon.

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Rangers
3B Josh Jung. I am looking forward to seeing hard-throwing righties Cole Winn and Hans Crouse, but Jung has to be the call here. The No. 8 pick in the 2019 draft is starting to pull the ball, allowing him to tap into his natural power, giving him exciting offensive upside. Jung is a good defensive third baseman and there are rumblings the Rangers may have him work out at second base at some point. At either position, he figures to be a central figure on the next great Texas team.

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Blue Jays
IF Austin Martin. Martin was arguably the top prospect in the 2020 draft class and the Blue Jays were thrilled to get him with the No. 5 pick. They have him listed as an infielder on their roster, though his position is unsettled and he could wind up in center field long-term. Wherever he lands, he's going to hit. Martin has star-caliber offensive tools and it won't be long before he joins Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and George Springer in the lineup. Fellow top prospect Orelvis Martinez deserves a mention here. He just might be the long-term third baseman in Toronto.

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Nationals
RHP Jackson Rutledge. The Nationals have the consensus worst farm system in the sport -- that's easier to swallow when you're one year removed from a World Series title -- and Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, their last two first-round picks, stand out as the system's best. Both righties will be in camp as NRIs this spring and Rutledge gets the nod here because he is a 6-foot-8 monster with a 100-mph fastball and an analytics-friendly high-spin curveball. Washington is not shy about rushing prospects to the big leagues (see: Juan Soto jumping from Low Class-A to MLB in a matter of weeks) and you may see Rutledge in the show this year. You will see him in spring training though. That's for sure.

**StarDust Bum** · 02-22-2021, 02:18 PM

Ranking MLB's top five rivalries heading into 2021 season: Dodgers-Padres, Yankees-Rays and more

No, you won't find the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry at the top of these rankings

We all know the list of the long-standing baseball rivalries. Those will never go away. There's always going to be something about the Dodgers-Giants, Cubs-Cardinals and, yes, the Yankees-Red Sox series that draws our eyeballs with a bit extra fervor (and we won't have much choice if we want to watch baseball on several Sunday nights). That does not, however, mean those are going to be the most intriguing series every single season. With that in mind, what are lining up to be the best rivalries in the 2021 version of Major League Baseball?

The number of times the teams face each other head to head matter, of course, and so do playoff implications. Along the way, a good-spirited "hatred" of each other -- especially looping in the fan bases, so long as we can keep things civil -- goes a long way in making things more interesting.

Here are my top five rivalries, ranked in order of intrigue, to watch for the 2021 season followed by five other areas of possibility.

1. Dodgers-Padres
Go West, people. This is where the good stuff resides. These two teams occupy the top two spots in my first version of power rankings. The Padres have made some serious noise the last few years, but they have not toppled the Final Boss (more on that here) in the defending champion Dodgers. We often say, rightfully so, that the Padres might be the most fun and/or exciting team to watch in baseball. Let's just not lose focus on just how fun the Dodgers are, though. Their championship and huge payroll don't negate the watchability, which is obscenely high.

These two teams first play on April 16 in San Diego and meet in the final week of the season (Sept. 28-30). Their head-to-head matchups could very well decide the NL West (and hopefully they meet again in October).

2. Rays-Yankees
The Rays are the defending AL East and American League champions. The Yankees actually don't have a pennant since 2009 and that's an eternity the way that franchise and its fan base views things. That puts the Rays squarely in the way. The Little Guy is in the way of the should-be Big Guy. That's good theater.

There's more, too.

Last season, the Rays won eight of the 10 regular season games between these two teams. The Rays ended the Yankees' season in the ALDS, too, when Mike Brosseau took Aroldis Chapman deep in the eighth inning. In the ninth, Diego Castillo struck out Giancarlo Stanton and Luke Voit before Gio Urshela's lineout closed the door.

On paper, the Yankees should be better while it looks like the Rays took a step back in the rotation. Games aren't played on paper, though. We actually get to watch them. These will be must-watch TV (or whatever device you watch these days).

3. Braves-Mets
It's a bit of an old-school rivalry that new Mets ownership seems to have jumpstarted for 2021. The Braves have won the NL East three straight seasons and were the second-best team in the NL last year. They appear primed for another deep playoff run, but the Mets would like a word on that. They already had a strong offense and an ace, but they beefed up this offseason by adding superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor along with starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman (he accepted a qualifying offer, but he had opted out in 2020). Noah Syndergaard will be back at some point from Tommy John surgery, too. There's great potential for a battle down to the wire here.

4. Twins-White Sox
A few projection systems have been a bit bearish on the White Sox, but Fangraphs has these two teams just one game apart, and that's about my thinking as well. I really like the White Sox to continue on last season's breakout and they are better in a few spots. The Twins aren't going anywhere, though, and are a decent bet to win their third-straight AL Central title. If they don't, the White Sox are the pick to take them down. The two teams don't face off in April or September, so there's a lot of head-to-head action in between.

5. Dodgers-Braves
This was a consideration to be ranked higher, but these two teams only square off six times out of the 162 in the regular season. Baseball gods willing, though, we'll get a rematch of the NLCS at some point in October. Remember, the Braves had a 2-0 series lead before the Dodgers scored 11 in the first inning in Game 3. Then the Braves blew things open in the sixth inning in Game 4 and took a 3-1 series lead, only to see the Dodgers win three straight with their backs against the wall. Game 7 was a beauty with Cody Bellinger's go-ahead bomb in the seventh proving to be the series winner. Both teams remain loaded and exciting.

If those don't end up being the top five rivalries in the 2021 season, something from below likely will have emerged.

The NL Central?
The Pirates are an embarrassment, so disregard them. Otherwise, who knows how this is going to go? I feel like the Reds are a decent bet for fourth place, but it's possible they can top the Brewers and/or the Cubs. We've got the ol' Cardinals-Cubs rivalry. The Brewers have plenty of rivalry-level hatred built up against both of those teams, too. This is the worst division in baseball, but the chances of it being competitive are decent. Something good will arise.

The AL West?
Astros-A's seems a good bet here and it's possible there's still bad blood between Houston and sign-stealing whistleblower Mike Fiers. The Astros aren't quite the juggernaut they were a few years ago and the A's could be down as well. There's room for something else to brew here (an Angels breakout?).

The Blue Jays vs. the top of AL East
We've already discussed the Yankees and Rays competing and we've been knocked over the head plenty about the one rivalry we don't need to mention again. What about the Jays, though? They started to come into their own last season and look to be better this time around. Might we end the season talking about the great battles between the Yankees and Jays? Or Rays and Jays? Both? It's all possible.

The rest of the NL East?
We already talked about the Mets and Braves, but we can't discount the rest of what could be the most competitive division in baseball. The Nationals won the World Series in the last full season and have retooled things a bit. They still have three aces, too. The Phillies were very inconsistent last season but they have talent and there's no way their bullpen could possibly be worse. And what do the Marlins do for the encore to their upstart playoff run? There's potential for all kinds of East-on-East crime.

Dodgers-Astros
Is everyone over this? I know I am. The Dodgers should be, since they just won the 2020 World Series. Then again, two rings are better than one and 2017 definitely happened. Benches cleared last season when the two teams met. They play six times in 2021, too -- likely with some fans in the stands.

**Udog** · 02-24-2021, 12:44 PM

**StarDust Bum** · 02-27-2021, 05:47 PM

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BOS at MIN 01:05 PM
MIN -135

TOR at NYY 01:05 PM
NYY -130

PHI at DET 01:05 PM
PHI -118

PIT at BAL 01:05 PM
BAL -130

MIA at HOU 01:05 PM
MIA +116

ATL at TB 01:05 PM
ATL +101

CIN at CLE 03:05 PM
CLE -130

LAA at SF 03:05 PM
SF -124

LAD at OAK 03:05 PM
OAK -103

MIL at CHW 03:05 PM
CHW -135

TEX at KC 03:05 PM
KC -130

ARI at COL 03:10 PM
ARI +101

SD at SEA 03:10 PM
SD -130

PRESEASON GAMES ALL OPINIONS !!

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

02/28/2021 4-9-0 30.77% -3270 Detail

**StarDust Bum** · 03-01-2021, 03:41 AM

Monday’s 6-pack
Over/under major league win totals (from DraftKings):
102.5— Dodgers
95.5— Bronx Bombers
94.5— Padres
91.5— Braves, White Sox
90.5— Mets
88.5— Twins

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 510,658
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
“Never miss a good chance to shut up.”
Will Rogers

Monday’s quiz
Which NBA team used to play its home games in St Louis?

Sunday’s quiz
Virginia won the last NCAA Tournament, two years ago; they beat Texas Tech in the final.

Saturday’s quiz
Clint Hurdle managed the Colorado Rockies, in their one World Series appearance.

***********************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports weekend

13) Quick piece of advice: don’t bet on spring training games this year.

They have some unusual rules this year; one of the weird ones is if a pitcher throws 20+ pitches in an inning, his manager can simply end the inning, just by saying so.

Up 5-2 in top of 6th Sunday, Angels had bases loaded, but the SF pitcher had reached 20 pitches that inning, so Gabe Kapler just told the umpire the half-inning was over. MLB is trying to prevent pitchers from overworking themselves this spring.

Some games are 5 innings, some 7, others 9, at least until March 13, when they’re expected to go back to all nine-inning games.

12) If you were born on February 29, when do you celebrate your birthday? The 28th? March 1? Must be odd having a birthday once every four years.

11) There is a basketball player at South Alabama named Kayo Goncalves: here are his shooting stats for this year, his senior season:

— 2-point shots: 7-19, 36.8%
— foul shots: 9-14, 64.3%
— 3-point shots: 65-168, 36.7%

He mustn’t dribble very much, just catch/shoot. Jaguars are 16-10 overall this season, 23-14 in Sun Belt play the last two seasons. Sun Belt basketball is fun to watch.

10) Knicks 109, Pistons 90— Knicks are 18-17, first time since 2013 that they’ve been over .500 after 35 games. Tom Thibodeau is a very good coach.

9) QB Allen Bowman is transferring from Texas Tech to Michigan; Jim Harbaugh had a young QB play for him last year and it didn’t go well, so he grabs another transfer. Bowman threw for 2,600+ yards the last two seasons.

8) It was great to watch actual baseball games Sunday, even meaningless exhibition games. Regular season starts April 1st, four weeks from Thursday.

7) Marcus Semien got $18M to play for Toronto this season, but he is also moving from SS to second base, and he’ll play most of his home games on artificial turf.

Blue Jays will stay in Florida for their first two homestands, and they’ll play it by ear from there, as far as COVID protocols go. Blue Jays played their home games in Buffalo last year, but you don’t want to play outdoors in Buffalo in April.

6) Butler 73, Villanova 61— Villanova shot 2-27 from the arc; they’re shooting 36.1% for the season behind the arc. This is the kind of game teams will have to avoid in the tournament; you lay an egg there and your season ends quickly.

5) Iowa 73, Ohio State 57— In reality, NCAA Tournament will have three #1-seeds (Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan) and five #2-seeds, just that one of the five will be named as a #1-seed, but who will it be? Buckeyes had a shot, but they’ve lost three in a row now, so that won’t happen.

4) Victor Oladipo rejected a 2-year, $45.2M contract extension from the Houston Rockets; you know your life is going well when $45.2M isn’t a good deal. He wants a contract that is longer than two years, and if he stays healthy, he’ll probably get it.

3) Charlotte 127, Sacramento 126:
— Sacramento led by 8 with 0:55 left.
— Kings missed five foul shots in the last 1:09.
— Charlotte’s best player, Gordon Hayward, didn’t play.
— Sacramento has lost 10 of its last 11 games.

2) RIP to Irv Cross, 81, who passed away Sunday. Cross was a DB in the NFL for nine years (Eagles, Rams) but was better known as a popular person on the NFL Today pregame show for many years, with Brent Musburger, Phyllis George and Jimmy the Greek. RIP, sir.

1) Sunday was the 38th anniversary of the last episode of M*A*S*H, one of the all-time great TV shows. Spent many an hour watching M*A*S*H re-runs on weekday afternoons; the episodes with MacLean Stevenson were my favorites.

Announcement

Da Bum's 2021 Major League Baseball Transactions, News, Notes, Picks Etc. !!

Da Bum's 2021 Major League Baseball Transactions, News, Notes, Picks Etc. !!

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