Announcement

**Udog** · 10-26-2020, 11:51 PM

The circulation of confidence is better than the circulation of money.

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six interesting NFL spreads for the coming week:
— Atlanta @ Carolina (-2.5)
— Indianapolis (-3) @ Detroit
— Minnesota @ Green Bay (-6.5)
— New England @ Buffalo (-3.5)
— Tennessee (-5.5) @ Cincinnati
— Las Vegas @ Cleveland (-2.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 225,580
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) NFL switched the Seattle-Arizona game to Sunday night because the Raiders had COVID issues last week, so that game was somewhat in doubt— it turned out to be a lucky break. Seahawk-Cardinal game was first one in at least 70 years where both QB’s threw for 300+ yards, ran for 50+ yards; fun game to watch.

Seattle coach Pete Carroll, the youngest-acting 69-year old in America, had his knee scoped October 13, during the Seahawks’ bye week.

12) Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert had a 31-yard run Sunday, longest run by a Chargers QB since Mark Malone’s 36-yard run in 1988.

Malone was a great athlete; he was a QB who played some WR for the Steelers, and in 1990, he caught a 90-yard TD pass from Terry Bradshaw, in a game against Seattle.

11) Indiana Hoosiers are ranked #19 in one college football poll this week, the highest they’ve been ranked nationally since November 8, 1993.

Hoosiers play Ohio State in a few weeks; they’re 2-42-1 all-time against the Buckeyes.

10) When an NFL team changes punters, like the Steelers did last week, it creates another problem, in that the punter is almost always also the holder for kicks, so if you bring in a new punter, the kicker has to work with him.

There was a time when I was a kid, where mostly backup QB’s held for kicks, or defensive backs did. When Tom Dempsey made the first 63-yard FG in NFL history, his holder was Joe Scarpati, a DB. Rams used to have DB Nolan Cromwell hold for kicks, Dolphins used to have a DB named Karl Noonan do the holding.

Now it has been decided that it is just easier to have the punters hold, since they can work a lot in practice with the kicker. Makes it harder to have a good fake FG play, though.

9) LSU lost 32 players, three assistant coaches from their national champion football team last year; that’s a huge turnover, and now their new QB is hurt. Everyone has to scramble this year, adjusting on the fly. In the long run, it’ll help coaches be better coaches, as long as they don’t get fired first.

8) It is a little eerie when I’m surfing the Interweb, looking at stuff I might like to buy, and a half-hour or so later, ads for that stuff starts showing up in margins of sites I’m looking at. It is like we’re being monitored all the time, trying to scrape every last nickel out of us.

7) Re-runs of the great TV show The West Wing popped up on TV last week, first time in a long time I’ve seen them. The West Wing ran on NBC from 1999-2006; great cast- Martin Sheen, Alan Alda, Jimmy Smits, Alison Janney, Rob Lowe.

6) How much you think Chris Rock got paid for these commercials he is doing for IPhone 12? Has to be a pretty penny.

5) A reader from California contributed this knowledge:

In the late 1200’s, a set of legal statutes enacted by King Edward I were recorded on a series of scrolls, known as the Ragman Rolls.

These records were so lengthy that their name came to be used as a byword for any long, serious process- and eventually, became the word “rigamarole”

4) Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz had a big game in the Badgers’ season opener Friday, completing 20-21 passes for 248 yards in an easy win over Illinois, but then he tested positive for COVID, so now Wisconsin has that problem to deal with.

3) Best wishes to Washington coach Ron Rivera, who had his last cancer treatment Monday. Hopefully he’ll be healthy now and his life can get back to normal.

2) Big game this week; Ravens-Steelers. Baltimore is 7-2-2 ATS in last eleven games of this divisional rivalry.

**Udog** · 10-26-2020, 11:52 PM

MLB public betting, line movement October 27
Patrick Everson

Corey Seager and the Dodgers look to finish off the Rays on Tuesday in Game 6 of the World Series. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles a -140 favorite and set the total at 8.5.

MLB betting odds are on the board and already getting action for Tuesday night’s Game 6 of the World Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Los Angeles Dodgers can claim their first championship since 1988 with a victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s Game 6 and the updated World Series odds.

MLB line movement

UPDATE 3:15 P.M. ET MONDAY: DraftKings opened Game 6 at Dodgers -155/Rays +130 and moved a few cents in just the past few minutes, to -148/+125. The total is stable at 8.

Clayton Kershaw pitched a solid 5 2/3 innings Sunday night, and Los Angeles earned a 4-2 victory to take a 3-2 lead over Tampa Bay in the best-of-seven World Series. The SuperBook quickly posted the Game 6 line at Dodgers -140/Rays +130, and there was no movement through late Sunday night.

The SuperBook opened the total at 8.5, and the only move Sunday night was a modest price adjustment to Under -115. First pitch is at 8:08 p.m. ET Tuesday.

MLB public betting

UPDATE 3:15 P.M. ET MONDAY: Early Game 6 action at DraftKings is tilted toward the underdog Rays, who are attracting 63 percent of moneyline bets and 74 percent of moneyline handle. There's more consensus on the total, with 69 percent of bets/80 percent of money on the Over.

Odds to win the World Series

Prior to Game 5, The SuperBook had the series price at Dodgers -200/Rays +175. Now, with Los Angeles one step away from the title, it’s up to Dodgers -650/Rays +475.

Behind the counter, SuperBook oddsmakers would much prefer this matchup get to Game 7 and, from there, Tampa Bay to win.

“The Rays are awesome for us,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said prior to Game 1. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

**Udog** · 10-26-2020, 11:54 PM

MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, October 27

**Udog** · 10-26-2020, 11:55 PM

**Udog** · 10-26-2020, 11:57 PM

961TAMPA BAY -962 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 23-13 SU (11.6 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 27

Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers

Game 961-962
October 27, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.501
LA Dodgers
(Gonsolin) 16.434
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+125); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 27

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TAMPA BAY (51 - 28) vs. LA DODGERS (55 - 22) - 8:08 PM
BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 51-28 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 26-11 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 35-19 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 39-16 (+19.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-10 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 25-12 (+14.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 149-154 (-35.7 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 3-2 (+0.1 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
SNELL is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

TONY GONSOLIN vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GONSOLIN is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 6.77 and a WHIP of 1.504.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 27

World Series

Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (LA leads 3-2) (@ Arlington)
Snell is 2-2, 3.33 in his last five starts; he didn’t finish 5th inning in his last two.
— Rays are 10-6 in his starts this year.
— Over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
— Snell allowed two runs in 4.2 IP (88 PT) in Game 2 vs LA.
— He is 2-3, 3.03 in eight postseason games (6 starts).

— Tampa Bay lost six of its last nine games.
— Rays are 51-28 this season.
— Under is 9-5 in their last 14 games.
— Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.

Gonsolin appears to be starting for LA, so its a bullpen game.

— Dodgers are 55-22 this year; they’ve won six of last eight games.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 34-13 away from home this season.
— Over is 8-3 in their last 11 games.
— Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.

MLB

Tuesday, October 27

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Trend Report
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Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 10-27-2020, 09:23 AM

Game 6 Odds: Rays vs. Dodgers
Tom Wilkinson

After four straight high-scoring games that went over the total to start the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays played their first game to go under the total on Sunday night.

It didn’t look like Game 5 would go under after their were five runs scored in the first three innings, but both bullpens were spectacular and combined to allow just five baserunners and no earned runs in 7.1 innings of work.

A day off on Monday means that both bullpens should be fully loaded once more for a decisive Game 6 on Tuesday, October 27.

Betting Resources

Matchup: World Series Game 6
Venue: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, Texas
Date: Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2020
Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Line Movements

Money-Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -140 / Tampa Bay Rays +130
Run-Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+140) / Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-160)
Total: 8 (Over -120, Under +100)
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -650, Tampa Bay +475

The L.A. Dodgers will start Tony Gonsolin in Game 6 but a committee approach is expected to be used on Tuesday. (AP)

Game 5 Recap

Tyler Glasnow struggled with his control again in Game 5. Glasnow threw 102 pitches in five innings, allowing all of the Dodgers’ runs in a 4-2 loss for the Rays.

The Dodgers only had six hits, but they made them count as Joc Pederson and Max Muncy both hit solo home runs in the win.

Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw pitched well for the Dodgers. He allowed seven baserunners in 5.2 innings of work, but he only allowed two runs to pick up his second win of the World Series.

After watching the 'over' cash in the first four games of the World Series, we finally saw an 'under' ticket cash in Game 5.

The game was actually on a good pace to lean to the high side as Los Angeles led 4-2 after five innings, but the bullpens showed up late and neither team scored in the final four innings.

The 'over' is 5-0 in first-five inning wagers in the World Series.

Los Angeles did cash on the run-line again, going 3-0 when it wins in the series.

Starting Pitchers

Blake Snell
Tony Gonsolin

Manager Kevin Cash will ask Blake Snell to lead Tampa Bay to a victory in Game 6. Snell was in good form when he started for the Rays in Game 2, striking out nine batters in 4.2 innings of hitless baseball. However, he couldn’t get out of the fifth inning. After putting away the first two batters, Snell went walk, home run, walk, single before being pulled in favor of Nick Anderson.

The fifth inning has been a constant source of disappointment for Snell in the postseason. He has not made it to the sixth inning in any of his last four starts, allowing nine baserunners, six earned runs, and three home runs in the fifth inning. Generally, Snell pitches well until the fifth inning, so Cash might jump the gun and use his starter for four innings before turning to the bullpen for the last five frames.

The Dodgers will match Snell against Tony Gonsolin, just like they did in Game 2.

L.A. manager Dave Roberts used Gonsolin as an opener in that game, but he could go deeper this time around. Gonsolin pitched just 1.1 innings last week before handing the ball off.

That was Gonsolin’s shortest outing of the postseason. He hasn’t looked great though, allowing five earned runs in 4.1 innings against Atlanta in Game 2 of the NLCS and two earned runs in two innings of work in Game 7 of that series. Gonsolin was much better during the regular season, posting a 2.31 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP in 46.2 innings of action.

Game 6 Bullpen Analysis

We didn’t see Nick Anderson or Pete Fairbanks for Tampa Bay in Game 5, so one of those two relievers is likely to be the first out of the pen. Cash told reporters that he planned on being aggressive with his bullpen on Tuesday, and that probably means he will yank Snell if he gets in too much trouble early.

Anderson, Fairbanks, and Diego Castillo might all be used for more than an inning since they are the three best arms, and there is no tomorrow for the Rays if they lose Game 6.

Dustin May might be the only Dodgers’ reliever that will be unavailable in Game 6. May threw 30 pitches in Game 5, so he is likely to get some additional rest along with the day off on Monday.

If the Dodgers have a narrow lead, it will be interesting to see what Roberts decides to do in the final innings. He wants to trust Kenley Jansen, but the long-time reliever has been a mess in his two World Series appearances.

Players to Watch - Rays

If it wasn’t for Randy Arozarena, the Rays never would have reached the World Series. Almost every hitter has struggled on this roster outside of Arozarena.

He has set numerous postseason records, and he just broke another on Sunday with his 27th hit of the 2020 playoffs. The Dodgers have not elected to pitch around him just yet, but he has reached base 10 times and has two home runs in this series.

Will anybody else step up?

Tampa Bay’s entire infield has struggled from the plate.

Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames, and Joey Wendle are all hitting .200 or less than postseason, and all three players don’t have an OPS above .540. That has really limited the Rays’ run production, so at least one player out of this group needs to have a big performance in Game 6.

Players to Watch - Dodgers

Mookie Betts only has five hits in the World Series, but he has made his presence felt. Betts is a constant threat to steal whenever he gets on base, and he has played excellent defense in the outfield.

We have seen him take more walks in the postseason than he did in the regular season too, allowing the Dodgers’ power hitters to have the potential to make an even bigger impact.

Max Muncy doesn’t have the same recognition as other stars on the Dodgers, but he has been fantastic in the World Series. He has reached base a whopping 12 times, drawing a walk in every game. Muncy has made excellent contact, striking out to Tampa Bay pitchers just three times, and he has the same number of walks and K’s this postseason.

The World Series MVP favorite continues to be Corey Seager. Seager mashed once again in Game 5, and he now has eight hits and five walks against the Rays. This has been a breakout postseason for the shortstop, as he never posted a batting average higher than .237 or an OPS above .743 in his previous four postseasons.

Announcement

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/27

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/27

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