Announcement

**Udog** · 10-24-2020, 10:04 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

NFL leaders in rushing yardage:
588— Derrick Henry, Tenn
505— Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
489— Dalvin Cook, Minn
478— Kenyan Drake, Ariz
472— Ronald Jones, TB
434— Miles Sanders, Phil

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 222,324
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Saturday's Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

13) Dodgers 6, Rays 2 (LA leads World Series 2-1)
— Turner homered in the first inning.
— Buehler struck out 10 Rays in six IP.
— Tampa Bay had only four hits in the game.

12) NBA came out with a surprising proposal to start the 2020-21 season a few days before Christmas, play a 72-game regular season with only a 10-week offseason. Players have to sign off on these changes, but if the league shows it is financially beneficial, why wouldn’t they?

11) NBA Draft will be a virtual draft on November 18; hopefully, they’ll show coaches/GM’s in their homes, the way the NFL did.

10) Tulsa 42, South Florida 13:
— Tulsa ran ball for 227 yards, threw for 235; they also had a defensive score.
— USF is 0-5 vs I-A teams, with four losses by 20+ points.
— Tulsa covered its first three games (2-1 SU); they haven’t played at home yet.

9) Louisiana 24, UAB 20
— UAB kicked a FG with 0:34 left in the half to go up 13-3; Louisiana ran the kickoff back 100 yards for a TD.
— UAB led 20-10 with 1:00 to go in third quarter, but was held scoreless rest of the way.
— Louisiana drove 86 yards for the winning TD with 6:35 left.

8) Wisconsin 45, Illinois 7:
— Badgers scored two TD’s in last 1:06 of first half to break game open.
— Illinois’ only TD was a defensive score in second quarter.
— Wisconsin outgained the Illini 430-218.

7) WR Antonio Brown signed with Tampa Bay; he is likely to play for the Bucs in two weeks, when Tampa Bay hosts the Saints.

6) Big West Conference announced their conference basketball schedule; they’re doing something different, not playing home/home series, but having teams visit an opponent and play on consecutive nights, with half the series at home, half on the road, to reduce travel.

For instance, Cal Poly is at Cal-Irvine Jan 22-23; Northridge visits Cal Poly Jan 29-30.

5) When Daniel Jones had his 80-yard run Thursday night, I wondered who had the longest run by a quarterback; over the last 25 years, Terrelle Pryor appears to have the longest run by a QB— he had a 93-yard TD run for the Raiders in 2013.

4) Who are the best teams in the red zone, so far this season?
Seattle 6.17 points/possession, Arizona 6.15 ppp, Tampa Bay 5.95 ppp

3) Who are the worst teams in the red zone, so far this season?
Giants 3.19 ppp, Jets 3.23, Denver 4.07

2) What NFL teams have had the most TD plays of 20+ yards?
7— Atlanta (17 TD’s overall), Seattle (23 TD’s)
6— Arizona, Dallas, Houston, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh

1) What NFL teams have had the fewest TD plays of 20+ yards?
0— Colts (12 TD’s, longest TD play, 17 yards)
0— Patriots (11 TD’s, longest TD play, 11 yards)
1— Denver/Jacksonville both have one TD play of 20+ yards, on 15 TD’s.

**Udog** · 10-24-2020, 10:06 AM

MLB public betting, line movement October 24
Patrick Everson

Julio Urias takes the ball in Game 4 for the Dodgers, who look to take a commanding 3-1 World Series lead over the Rays on Saturday. The SuperBook opened Los Angeles a -160 favorite.

MLB betting odds are on the board and getting attention for Saturday night’s Game 4 of the World Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Los Angeles Dodgers can put themselves very much in the driver’s seat with a victory over the Tampa Bay Rays.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s Game 4 and the updated World Series odds.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles plated five runs over the first four innings and got a solid six innings from starter Walker Buehler to beat Tampa Bay 6-2 in Game 3 Friday night. The Dodgers have a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series, heading into an 8:08 p.m. ET Game 4.

The SuperBook opened Saturday’s contest at Dodgers -160/Rays +140, with a total of 8 (Over -120). There was no movement on the moneyline or the total Friday night.

MLB public betting

The consensus is often a good indicator of where the public is, and in a limited sample late Friday night, it was on Los Angeles. The Dodgers were attracting 65 percent of early picks, and Over 8 was landing 79 percent of early picks.

Odds to win the World Series

With the early back-and-forth game results, the price to win the World Series has also swung back and forth. Prior to Game 1, The SuperBook had the Dodgers -210 and the Rays +180. After L.A.’s Game 1 win, the price shifted to Dodgers -410/Rays +340, and when Tampa took Game 2, it moved to Dodgers -200/Rays +175.

Now, with the Dodgers up 2-1, The SuperBook has Los Angeles out to -500, with Tampa Bay +400. The house is rooting hard for the Rays.

“The Rays are awesome for us,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said prior to Game 1. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

**Udog** · 10-24-2020, 10:07 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Saturday, October 24

**Udog** · 10-24-2020, 10:10 AM

**Udog** · 10-24-2020, 10:14 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 24

LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay

Game 957-958
October 24, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Urias) 18.988
Tampa Bay
(Yarbrough) 16.147
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-170
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-170); Over

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 24

World Series

Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (LA leads 2-1) (@ Arlington)

Bullpen game
— Tampa Bay lost five of its last seven games.
— Rays are 50-27 this season.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.
— Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.

Last four Urias appearances totaled 16 innings, so this is likely a bullpen game, unless Urias is brilliant.
— Dodgers are 54-21 this year; they’ve won five of last six games.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 33-12 away from home this season.
— Over is 7-2 in their last eight games.
— Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.

MLB

Saturday, October 24

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Trend Report
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LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

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**Udog** · 10-24-2020, 12:05 PM

Game 4 Odds: Dodgers vs. Rays
Tom Wilkinson

The team to score first in all three previous games of the 2020 World Series has not only won, but never trailed. That has somewhat mitigated both bullpens, especially since each game has been decided by at least two runs.

This little nugget is worth keeping in mind when betting on Game 4 on Saturday night. The Tampa Bay Rays will be the nominal hosts against the Los Angeles Dodgers with the first pitch taking place a little after 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.

Betting Resources

Matchup: World Series Game 4
Venue: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, Texas
Date: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020
Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Justin Turner and the Dodgers have won nine of their 11 playoff games by two or more runs in the 2020 postseason. (AP)

Line Movements

Money-Line: Dodgers -165 , Rays +155
Run-Line: Dodgers -1.5 (-105) , Rays +1.5 (-115)
Total: 8
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -500 Tampa Bay -400

Game 3 Recap

Charlie Morton could never get into a rhythm on Friday night. The veteran pitcher surrendered a solo home run to Justin Turner in the first inning, and he was run midway through the fifth inning after giving up five earned runs.

That was more than enough for Walker Buehler. The Dodgers’ ace pitched a gem, striking out 10 while only allowing three hits and one earned run in six innings. Buehler became the first pitcher to strike out 10 batters in six innings or less of work in a World Series game.

Los Angeles led 5-1 after the five innings and 6-1 going into the bottom of the ninth inning. Then, Randy Arozarena of Tampa Bay hit a two-out solo home run in the last go 'round for Tampa Bay.

That extra run cut the lead to 6-2 and helped 'over' (7.5) bettors connect for the third straight game in the World Series.

The Dodgers improved to 2-0 as run-line favorites in this series and they have now won 9 of 11 playoff games by two or more runs in 2020.

Game 4 Pitching Analysis

Starting Pitchers

Dodgers - Julio Urias
Rays - Ryan Yarbrough

Manager Kevin Cash announced that Ryan Yarbrough will be Tampa Bay’s Game 4 starter yesterday. Yarbrough was used in relief in Game 1, and he allowed two hits in 0.2 innings of action.

This will be just the third appearance of the postseason for Yarbrough. He threw five innings of relief, giving up six hits and two earned runs, in a Game 4 loss to the New York Yankees in the ALDS. Yarbrough’s lone win came in Game 3 of the ALCS against Houston, as he only allowed three hits and two earned runs in five innings.

Yarbrough was solid in the regular season. He posted a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.56 ERA in 55.2 innings of work, and he has good command. However, he isn’t going to overpower hitters with his stuff, posting a 7.1 K/9.

The Dodgers will ask Julio Urias to put them within one game of winning their first World Series title since 1988. Urias has been electric in these playoffs. He has filled any role Dave Roberts has asked him too, throwing 11 innings of relief and five innings as a starter. In 16 innings, he has allowed just seven hits, and his lone earned run came off a solo home run.

Urias has great stuff and a 9.0 K/9 with a 0.63 WHIP and a 0.56 ERA in four appearances this postseason. He was roughed up in last year’s playoffs, but he has bounced back in a big way.

Game 4 Bullpen Analysis

The Rays won’t be using John Curtiss, Ryan Sherriff, or Shane McClanahan after all three relievers saw at least an inning of work last night.

There’s an outside chance Ryan Thompson sees the mound since he only threw six pitches in the eighth inning, but it’s likely that Tampa Bay sticks with the big three of Pete Fairbanks, Nick Anderson, and Diego Castillo. Yarbrough isn’t expected to throw a lot, so those three relievers are likely to see a lot of action.

Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen are going to be unavailable for the Dodgers in Game 4, but Roberts can still use Brusdar Graterol after the flamethrower only threw seven pitches last night. Pedro Baez, Joe Kelly, Alex Wood, and others are all ready to go though.

Players to Watch - Dodgers

The first six hitters are continuing to rake in this series. Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy all had two hits on Friday night, and all six players reached base for the third straight game.

Turner got this offense going with his solo shot in the first inning and a double in the third inning, and he made a little bit of history with the blast. He tied the legendary Duke Snider for the most career postseason home runs in Dodgers’ history with 11 dingers.

Austin Barnes finally got his bat going too. Barnes is a defensive catcher that always bats at the bottom of the order, and he failed to record a hit in the first two games against the Rays.

However, he gave his team some insurance runs with a beautiful squeeze bunt in the fourth inning and a solo blast in the sixth. This is Barnes’ best postseason by a mile, as he is now hitting .350.

Don’t tell Mookie Betts that the stolen base is dead. Betts stole two bases in Game 1, and he repeated the feat with two steals in Game 3. The 2018 AL MVP has thrived in his first postseason with the Dodgers, and he currently has an OPS over .900.

Players to Watch - Rays

The Rays lost Game 3, but Randy Arozarena continues to astound. Arozarena broke Derek Jeter’s record for hits by a rookie in the postseason with his eighth home run of the 2020 MLB playoffs. He is now one of just four players to hit eight home runs in a single postseason.

Manuel Margot is the only other Tampa Bay player hitting the ball well. Margot has four hits in 10 at-bats in the World Series for the Rays, making him the only player with a hit in each game against the Dodgers. He was never a great hitter in his four seasons with San Diego, but he has caught fire this postseason.

Mike Zunino needs to get going for the Rays. He has failed to record a hit in his nine at-bats this World Series. Zunino is a boom or bust hitter with a lot of strikeouts, but he also had four home runs in 37 at-bats in the AL playoffs.

**Udog** · 10-24-2020, 12:08 PM

957LA DODGERS -958 TAMPA BAY
LA DODGERS are 22-12 SU (11.7 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 24

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LA DODGERS (54 - 21) vs. TAMPA BAY (50 - 27) - 8:08 PM
JULIO URIAS (L) vs. RYAN YARBROUGH (L)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 148-153 (-35.1 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 50-27 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 25-10 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-18 (+11.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 22-9 (+13.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 2-1 (+0.7 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.1 Units)

JULIO URIAS vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

RYAN YARBROUGH vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

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Announcement

Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/24

Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/24

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