Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/22

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, October 22

Good Luck on day #296 of 2020!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Odds for this week’s PGA stop, the ZoZo Championship:
+1100— Rahm
+1275— Schauffele, Thomas
+1450— McIlroy
+1625— Morkiawa
+2400— Hatton
+2700— Reed

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 221,150
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

13) Rays 6, Dodgers 4 (series 1-1)
— Blake Snell didn’t allow a hit until 5th inning; bullpen got the last 16 outs.
— Brandon Lowe snapped out of a slump, homered twice for the Rays.
— Joey Wendle knocked in three runs for Tampa Bay.
— Game 3 is Friday night in Arlington.

12) Dodger OF Cody Bellinger hit 47 homers last year, seems headed to becoming a big star, but he’s got a ways to go before he catches up with his dad, at least in one category.

Clay Bellinger played in 193 big league games over parts of four seasons with Bronx and the Angels; he hit 12 career homers, struck out 82 times, bur he also won THREE World Series rings, two in New York, a third one with the Angels. Cody is trying for his first one this year.

Today, I’m looking at how NFL teams do on drives that start 75+ yards from the goal line; can.a team’s offense carry the team, if need be? Lot of strong teams have really good special teams and defenses, so the offense’s job is a somewhat simpler, but which offenses drive the field the best?

11) Top teams in points/possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
— Raiders 3.37 points/possession
— Steelers 3.16
— Chiefs 2.95
— Dolphins 2.62
— Rams 2.58

10) Worst teams in points/possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
— Jets 0.48 points/possession
— Washington 0.69
— Broncos 0.86
— Bears 1.24
— Cleveland 1.43

If a team gives up a defensive TD/safety, it goes against them in this category.

9) Obviously, teams that have better field position are more likely to win. These teams have started the lowest %age of their drives 75 yards from the goal line:
47.5% (29 of 61)— Ravens
50%— Colts
51.0%— Steelers
57.8%— Buccaneers
60.8%— Titans

All teams with winning records.

8) These teams have started the highest %age of their drives 75 yards from the goal line:
85.7% (48 of 56)— Jets
82.5%— Vikings
81.5%— Chargers
79.4%— Cowboys
78.3%— Patriots

Interesting that New England has started 36 of 46 drives 75+ yards from the goal line.

7) Since 1986, NFL teams that started the season 0-6 won an average of 3.0 games the rest of the season.

6) Clemson is a 46-point favorite over Syracuse Saturday; there is one sportsbook in America offering a money line on this game. Risk $1,000 on Clemson, win a dollar, One dollar.

5) Dallas Cowboys are 3-10 in their last 13 playoff games, losing their last eight road playoff games- their last road playoff win was 1993, in San Francisco.

4) Jets have been outscored 114-29 in the second half of games this year.

3) Only one person has won an Olympic Gold Medal and also played on a Super Bowl champ; Bob Hayes, who was a very fast receiver for the Cowboys, from 1965-74. He won a gold medal in the 100 meters sprint at the 1964 Olympics in Tokyo.

2) Memphis Tigers’ WR Damonte Coxie has opted out of this season, and is headed to prepare for the NFL Draft; he caught 16 balls for 175 yards in two games this year, then sat out the UCF game Saturday, and now he’s bolted the team for greener pa$ture$.

Last two years, Coxie caught a combined 148 passes for 2,450 yards and 16 TD’s.

1) 3-3 Miami Dolphins are changing QB’s after their bye week; rookie Tua Tagovailoa will get his first NFL start against the Rams next week, replacing veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who had been playing really well.

[Udog]

Day off for MLB......

Will post any game 3 info that comes out today......

[Udog]

955LA DODGERS -956 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 90-58 SU (26.2 Units) after 2 straight games where they committed no errors in the last 3 seasons.




MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 23

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LA DODGERS (53 - 21) vs. TAMPA BAY (50 - 26) - 8:08 PM
WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 147-153 (-36.1 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.
TAMPA BAY is 50-26 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 11-1 (+9.1 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
TAMPA BAY is 34-17 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 39-15 (+20.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-17 (+9.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TAMPA BAY is 22-8 (+14.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 (+0.2 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHARLIE MORTON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MORTON is 0-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.67 and a WHIP of 1.385.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

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MLB

Friday, October 23

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Trend Report
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LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers


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[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 23

LA Dodgers @ Tampa Bay

Game 955-956
October 23, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 16.417
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 17.518
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+135); Under

[Udog]

MLB public betting, line movement October 23
Patrick Everson

Brandon Lowe rediscovered his home run stroke in Game 2, launching two long balls to help the Rays even up the World Series. Tampa Bay opened as a +140 underdog for Friday's pivotal Game 3.

MLB betting odds are posted and drawing action for Friday night’s Game 3 of the World Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. With the series knotted up, both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays look to gain an edge in the Fall Classic.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement and public betting for Friday’s Game 3 and the updated World Series odds.

MLB line movement

Tampa Bay staked itself to a 5-1 lead by the middle of the fifth inning in Game 2 Thursday, then held on for a 6-4 victory over Los Angeles to tie the best-of-seven World Series at a game apiece. DraftKings opened Game 3 at Dodgers -165/Rays +140 overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and there was no movement by Thursday afternoon.

The total opened at 7.5 and was also stable Thursday for Friday’s 8:08 p.m. ET clash.

MLB public betting

With literally no movement on the moneyline so far at DraftKings, it’s clear that Thursday action is light, still more than 24 hours out from first pitch. That said, as was the case in Games 1 and 2, bettors are leaning toward Tampa Bay. The Rays are attracting 57 percent of early bets and 60 percent of early money.

On the total at DraftKings, there’s much stronger consensus early on, with 86 percent of tickets and 89 percent of money on Over 7.5.

The consensus also favors the Rays, with 54 percent of early picks on Tampa Bay, and the Over is also drawing 54 percent of early picks, as of Thursday afternoon.

Odds to win the World Series

With the early back-and-forth game results, the price to win the World Series has also swung back and forth. Prior to Game 1, The SuperBook had the Dodgers -210 and the Rays +180. After L.A.’s Game 1 win, the price shifted to Dodgers -410/Rays +340.

Now, with the World Series tied at 1, The SuperBook is practically back at the pre-Game 1 number, with the Dodgers -200 and the Rays +175.

“The Rays are awesome for us,” SuperBook executive director John Murray said prior to Game 1. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

[Udog]