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**Udog** · 10-21-2020, 08:34 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for Week 7 of the NFL:
— Green Bay (-3.5) @ Houston
— Seattle (-3.5) @ Arizona
— San Francisco @ New England (-2.5)
— Kansas City (-9.5) @ Denver
— Tampa Bay (-3) @ Las Vegas
— Pittsburgh (-2) @ Tennessee

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 220,338
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: My running diary of Sunday’s 1:00 NFL games

12:59: We have eight games on one screen on channel 702 of DirecTV, a good way to follow the early games, as long as the Rams aren’t playing- they play tonight. Bengals-Colts is the one game that isn’t being shown on this screen.

1:04: Minnesota QB Cousins throws an INT on the Vikings’ first play; no bueno. If there were fans in the stands, they’d be grumbling right now.

1:07: Falcons take advantage; Ryan-to-Jones gives Atlanta a 7-0 lead, first TD of the day in the league.

1:08: 4-1 Bears score an early TD, lead the Panthers 7-0 early on in Charlotte.

1:12: Lamar Jackson scrambles, throws a TD, Ravens lead 7-0 in nPhilly, as the NFC East’s struggles continue. Coming into this week, NFC East squads are 3-12-1 ATS outside the division.

1:14: Washington misses a field goal against the Giants; Detroit scores an early TD against the the Jaguars in Jacksonville.

Speaking of Jacksonville, if I owned the Jaguars and we were home underdogs to Detroit, I’d have a talk with my football people and ask what the BLEEP is going on????

1:15: Baker Mayfield throws a pick-6, Browns are down 10-0 in Pittsburgh- they’ve lost 16 games in a row in Pittsburgh, and appear to be on a fast track to #17.

1:19: Tannehill throws a TD for the Titans; they led Houston 7-0.

When Tannehill was a rookie with Miami, they were on HBO’s Hard Knocks, and there was a conversation where Tannehill and Matt Moore, the other QB, are talking in a meeting room. Tannehill tells Moore that he doesn’t know who the other three teams in the AFC East are.

“How do you not know that?!?!?!” Moore was as incredulous as I was.

1:22: Denver leads 6-0 in Foxboro, kicking field goals on their first two drives, but not taking full advantage of scoring opportunities.

1:23: Giants 3, Redskins 0— The moveable force leads the resistible object.

1:25: Falcons lead 10-0 in Minnesota; this is where I’m supposed to point out that Kirk Cousins makes $28M a year, but won only one playoff game (1-2). He is 20-18-1 in 2+ years QB’ing the Vikings.

I admire Vikings’ coach Mike Zimmer; guy has had eight operations on one of his eyes but he still coaches. I’ve had two eye operations in the last 13 months; has to be very difficult for him to work as hard as coaches do while properly maintaining his eye, or maybe that’s why he’s had to have eight operations- could be he isn’t maintaining the eye.

1:27: Carolina kicks a FG, trail Chicago 7-3, first game today where both teams have scored.

1:32: Giants lead 10-0; Jones throws a 23-yard TD pass to Slayton.

1:35: Titans lead Houston 14-0; the Texans traded star WR DeAndre Hopkins, then fired the guy who traded him four games later— not a well-run franchise. Great players help win games.

1:42: Ravens lead 14-0 in Philly; Eagles drafted Carson Wentz in 2016, won the Super Bowl the next year, but Wentz had gotten injured during the season and Nick Foles was the hero, but now Foles plays for the Bears and Wentz is increasingly viewed as a suspect.

1:45: Denver leads 9-0 in Foxboro; they have Drew Lock back at QB, and have FG’s on their first three drives. It is super-ironic that John Elway is struggling to find a franchise QB for the team he once starred for.

1:50: Daniel Jones runs for 49 yards; problem is, he runs better than he throws, which isn’t so great for an NFL QB.

I miss watching NFL games at the Westgate Theater in Las Vegas, the same room where Barry Manilow performs. Seats 1,500 people; there is a concession stand on the left, betting windows in the back, and people have always been cool when I’ve been there.

One Sunday in the Westgate 2-3 years ago, I’m talking to this guy wearing a Cardinals’ jersey; we’re shooting the breeze about sports, gambling, Las Vegas; all of a sudden, it dawns on me that this guy is betting $6,000 a game, while I’m stressed out about my $30 wager. Oy.

Las Vegas is the big time of gambling; can’t wait to get back there.

2:00: Denver leads 9-3 in Foxboro; over bettors are queasy. Teams are moving the ball, but not scoring touchdowns.

Bengals led 21-0 in Indy, now lead 21-7; at one point, Joe Burrow was a 3rd-string QB at Ohio State, playing behind JT Barrett and Dwayne Haskins. Anyone want to ask Urban Meyer about that?

2:03: Baker Mayfield scrambles, throws another INT; Cleveland QB’s are measured by how they do against the Steelers/Ravens, who rule the AFC North. This ain’t going well.

2:07: Tannehill has Tennessee ahead of the Texans 21-7; in a couple weeks, Titans play Cincinnati, and Tannehill will meet up with Zac Taylor, whose father-in-law is Mike Sherman, the guy who moved Tannehill from WR to QB while they were both at Texas A&M.

2:14: Denver leads 12-3 at halftime in Foxboro; four possessions, four FG’s.

This is where I break down Bill Belichick’s career as a head coach:
— With Tom Brady at QB: 219-64, six Super Bowl titles
— Without Tom Brady at QB: 56-65, and down 12-3 at halftime today

2:16: Giants lead 13-10; Washington’s Kyle Allen throws a TD with 0:13 left in the half. Giants have mostly dominated the half, but lead only 13-10.

2:28: Eagles get stopped on 4th-and-a in the red zone, trail 17-0 with 0:56 left in the half, and may be at least a little grateful there are no fans there to boo them off the field.

Note to self; buy some Halloween candy, Reese’s cups or KitKats. That way, if no kids show up, I’ve still got a bowlful of candy I like.

With most of the games at halftime, time for a nutritious meal, a bowl of Fruit Loops.

2:48: Broncos lead 15-3 in Foxboro; five possessions, five FG’s. Has this ever happened before, a team with field goals on their first five drives?

2:53: Houston has rallied, cutting the Titans lead to 21-17.

Jennifer Garner must have a great agent; she does a ton of commercials.

2:55: New England’s tight end fumbles, Denver has the ball in NE territory- they kick yet another FG, now lead 18-3.

3:00: There was a time 10-11 years ago when Jacksonville owner Shahid Khan tried to buy the Rams, when they were in St Louis. Mercifully, that didn’t happen, because Stan Kroenke moved the Rams to LA and that’s a good thing.

3:02: Falcons lead 23-7 in Minnesota; Mike Zimmer is a defensive-minded coach, and has gone thru offensive coordinators very quickly. Watching the Vikings gag away that game in Seattle Monday night, it had to be a dispiriting loss, and today they look like a depressed team.

3:05: Guy on the Eagles runs 70+ yards, fumbles, and a teammate recovers for a TD, but then Philly goes for two points- why? When was it decided that going for two all the time was such a great idea?

3:09: Jones throws a terrible INT in the end zone, Giants still lead, but only 13-10.

3:11: Matt Ryan throws another TD pass, Falcons lead 30-7, and interim coaches are about to go 2-0 this season in their first game after the firing.

3:13: Lamar Jackson runs 37 yards for a TD; he could’ve run to Newark before he got hit, and the Ravens are jogging, 24-6.

3:19: Tennessee misses a FG, still trails 23-21, in what looks like the best of these early games.

3:20: Steelers lead Cleveland 31-7 and Case Keenum is in at QB for the Browns; I’ll be doing a look at Keenum’s unusual career pretty soon. Guy moves around a lot.

3:25: Cam Newton gets the Patriots in the end for the first TD of the day, but they miss on the 2-point play, trail 18-9 with 8:31 left. First TD of the game for either side.

3:27: Tennessee’s Derrick Henry runs 94 yards for a TD, Titans lead 29-23 with 9:23 left.

3:29: Washington kicks a FG; they’re 13-13 with the Giants, 8:56 left. My cousin bet the Giants on the money line. Kind of glad I’m not there right now.

3:32: Deshaun Watson throws a 53-yard TD pass, Houston leads 30-29 with 8:29 left. Thisis really a good game.

3:37: Denver QB Lock throws an awful INT; Patriots get the ball on Denver’s 25, but only kicks a field goal, and trails 18-12 with 3:23 left.

3:42: Lock throws ANOTHER interception, and New England is going to steal this bleeping game. Denver just cut Blake Bortles, who can’t possibly be worse than the guys the Broncos have been using at QB.

3:44: Giants get sack/fumble/TD, take a 20-13 lead with 3:29 left.

3:50: Former QB Julian Edelman throws an 18-yard pass to Cam Newton on a trick play; Newton is way bigger than the DB’s, is bigger than lot of linebackers. Patriots are on the move.

3:52: Eagles’ tight end Zach Ertz sprains his ankle; the Philly offense is messed up.

3:53: Houston scores a TD, leads 36-29; they go for 2 to get ahead by nine points (two scores) but miss on the try. I have no problem with that strategy.

3:54: Denver holds on, wins 18-12 in Foxboro, without scoring a TD. Belichick falls to 56-66 in his career with a QB other than Brady.

3:56: Redskins score TD with 0:36 left, trail 20-19, and Rivera has them go for two points- they don’t get it, much to the relief of a certain living room on Long Island.

Unless your QB is a great runner, I’m a firm believer in kicking the PAT and going to OT, but football coaches have this macho attitude that we can run them over, but it makes very little sense. Then again, no one asked me.

4:00: Titans score with 0:04 left to force overtime, and now the TV guys are killing Romeo Crennel for going for two after Houston’s last TD.

4:07: Tennessee wins coin toss in OT, Watson winces noticeably, not showing whole lot of faith in his defense.

4:12: Once down 21-0, Colts have rallied to lead Indianapolis 31-27; Burrow throws a pick in Colt territory with 0:32 left.

Philip Rivers grew up in Alabama, but neither Alabama/Auburn saw him as a starting QB, so he went to NC State, where he started for four years, and since has played 17 years in the NFL.

Go figure.

4:14: Derrick Henry scores TD, puts Houston’s defense out of its misery, 42-36. He ran the ball for 221 yards and looked like a man amongst boys.

Tennessee is 5-0, but they have a four wins by 3 or fewer points, plus this overtime win.

4:19: Eagles have rallied, have ball down 30-22, after Baltimore killed off only 0:27 on their last drive. After a terrible interference call on Baltimore, Wentz sneaks in for a TD with 1:55 left, but the 2-point try fails, and Ravens hold on, 30-28.

Eagles scored four TD’s, but never tried an extra point- they went for two four times.

Pretty good card of early games, considering it is October, when league tries to hide lot of the lesser-appealing non-divisional matchups.

**Udog** · 10-21-2020, 08:37 AM

MLB public betting, line movement October 21
Patrick Everson

Willy Adames and the Rays hope to bounce back from a World Series Game 1 loss when they face the Dodgers in Game 2 Wednesday night. The SuperBook at Westgate opened Los Angeles -145.

MLB betting odds are on the board and getting attention for Wednesday night’s Game 2 of the World Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Los Angeles Dodgers got out of the gate quickly and aim to take control against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s Game 2 and updated World Series odds.

MLB line movement

The Dodgers spread eight runs across the fourth, fifth and sixth innings Tuesday night, ripping the Rays 8-3 to take a 1-0 lead in the best-of-seven World Series. For Game 2, The SuperBook at Westgate was among the first out of the gate with odds late Tuesday, opening at Dodgers -145/Rays +135, and there was no early line movement.

The SuperBook opened the total at 8, with the Over at -120. That also had no early movement for Wednesday’s 8:08 p.m. ET first pitch.

MLB public betting

The consensus is often indicative of public opinion, and late Tuesday night, there was interest in both teams for Game 2. Still, the lean was toward Los Angeles to take a 2-0 series lead, with the Dodgers attracting 54 percent of early picks.

Odds to win the World Series

Prior to Game 1, The SuperBook had the Dodgers -210 and the Rays +180 to win the World Series. With Los Angeles now up 1-0, the series price jumped to Dodgers -410/Rays +340. John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, said pre-series that his shop has a significant rooting interest.

“The Rays are awesome for us,” Murray said. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

**Udog** · 10-21-2020, 08:40 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, October 21

**Udog** · 10-21-2020, 08:46 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 21

Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers

Game 953-954
October 21, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 16.778
LA Dodgers
(Gonsolin) 15.816
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-150
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+130); Over

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 21

World Series

Tampa Bay vs Los Angeles (1-0) (@ Arlington)
Snell is 2.75 in his last seven starts.
— Rays are 9-6 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— Snell threw two scoreless innings in a two-inning start vs LA last year.
— He is 2-3, 2.88 in seven postseason games (5 starts).

— Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games.
— Rays are 49-26 this season.
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
— Tampa Bay lost its only previous World Series, in 2008.

Gonsolin is starting, which makes it a bullpen game.

— Dodgers are 53-20 this year; they rallied from down 3-1 to win the NLCS.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 32-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
— Dodgers haven’t won World Series since 1988; they lost World Series in 2017-18.

MLB

Wednesday, October 21

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Trend Report
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Tampa Bay @ LA Dodgers
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games on the road
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
LA Dodgers is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games

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**Udog** · 10-21-2020, 09:02 AM

953TAMPA BAY -954 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 21-11 SU (11.7 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 21

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TAMPA BAY (49 - 26) vs. LA DODGERS (53 - 20) - 8:08 PM
BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 49-26 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 74-37 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 33-17 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 38-15 (+19.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 21-8 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 24-12 (+13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 195-205 (-64.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 147-152 (-34.8 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
SNELL is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

TONY GONSOLIN vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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**Udog** · 10-21-2020, 09:20 AM

Game 2 Odds: Rays vs. Dodgers
Tom Wilkinson

The Los Angeles Dodgers are three wins away from wiping away more than three decades of pain.

The Dodgers beat the Tampa Bay Rays 8-3 in Game 1 on Tuesday night, as Clayton Kershaw looked great on the mound.

Tampa Bay will look to even the series on Wednesday night with Blake Snell taking the mound, while manager Dave Roberts named Tony Gonsolin as Los Angeles’ Game 2 starter shortly after Game 1 went final.

The first pitch is once again slated to take place shortly after 8:09 p.m. ET with FOX broadcasting the game.

Betting Resources

Matchup: World Series Game 2
Venue: Globe Life Field
Location: Arlington, Texas
Date: Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020
Time: 8:09 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Line Movements

Money-Line: Dodgers -150 Rays +135
Run-Line: Dodgers -1.5 (+140) Rays +1.5 (-167)
Total: 8
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -410, Tampa Bay +330

Blake Snell makes his World Series debut in Game 2 as the Rays face the Dodgers at Globe Life Field. (AP)

Game 1 Recap

Mookie Betts made some history on Tuesday night. He became the first player since Babe Ruth to record a walk and two stolen bases in one inning during the World Series. That wasn’t all Betts did though, as he went 2-4 with a home run.

The superb Kershaw also vanquished some of his October demons with a solid six innings of work. Kershaw struck out eight batters and only allowed two hits and an earned run on 78 pitches.

For our purposes, the Dodgers cashed as Game 1 favorites and they connected on the run-line (+130) as well.

The game was scoreless after three innings but the pair erupted for nine runs in the next three innings and that helped the 'over' (7.5) cash for the game and in the first five innings (3.5).

Los Angeles went 'over' on its team total (4.5) but Tampa Bay (3.5) feel a run short.

For bettors following our Playoff Results, you can see that run-line favorites have gone 27-5 in the 2020 postseason when favorites have won the game. Overall, favorites are 32-16 (67%) straight up.

Game 2 Pitching Analysis

Starting Pitchers

Blake Snell
Tony Gonsolin

Blake Snell has been solid during the postseason. In four starts, he is 2-2 with a 1.32 WHIP and a 3.20 ERA. He has had a knack for pitching himself into trouble with 10 walks in just 19.2 innings of work, but he has also done a decent job of getting himself out of jams with an 8.7 K/9. Snell is walking batters at a higher rate than he did in the regular season, and his strikeout rate is down.

It’s highly unlikely that Snell makes it past the sixth inning. He has yet to pitch into the seventh inning in the postseason, and he has only thrown 14 innings in his last three starts. His high walk rate has helped contribute to an elevated pitch count, and Snell is averaging almost 18 pitches an inning.

Roberts didn’t initially name a Game 2 starter prior to the start of the World Series, opting to wait until he saw what happened in Game 1. He has now opted to go with Tony Gonsolin, and Gonsolin is out to shake off a bad performance on Sunday.

We saw Gonsolin give up two hits, three walks, and two earned runs early in Game 7 of the NLCS. That put the Dodgers in a hole, but the team battled back to punch their ticket to the World Series as the next three relievers held the Atlanta Braves hitless.

Gonsolin did start Game 2 against Atlanta too, surrendering five earned runs in 4.1 innings, but he will only be an opener here and shouldn’t be on the mound for more than two or three innings.

Game 2 Bullpen Analysis

Dodgers could use Committee Approach

That means it’s going to be a heavy bullpen day for the Dodgers. We won’t see Pedro Baez or Joe Kelly after they both pitched an inning against the Rays in Game 1, but anyone else is on the table.

Julio Urias could be available for short work after throwing three innings on Sunday, and Dustin May might see some action too as he has been used in a reliever role throughout the playoffs.

Provided the game is close, flamethrower Brusdal Graterol and Kenley Jansen figure to make an appearance too.

Rays armed and ready for Game 2

One of the good things for the Rays despite the loss was that they didn’t blow through their best bullen arms. Josh Fleming saw 2.2 innings of work to eat up some innings, while Ryan Yarbrough and John Curtiss each threw 0.2 innings too.

Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, and Pete Fairbanks are all still ready to go, and manager Kevin Cash won’t hesitate if he feels the need to turn to one of his three best arms early in Game 2.

Players to Watch - Dodgers

Max Muncy had a great game in his second trip to the World Series. Muncy was one of three Dodgers with multiple hits on the evening, going 2-4 with two RBI and two runs while also reaching on a walk. He has the best eye on this team with 15 walks in 53 plate appearances, as no other Dodger has more than eight walks.

NLCS MVP Corey Seager had a great day from the plate too, although he didn’t register a hit. Seager walked three times in the evening, and his 1.124 OPS is still the best on the team by a significant margin.

With Snell on the mound, Roberts will likely insert right-handed hitters A.J. Pollock and Enrique Hernandez into the bottom of the lineup.

Pollock has a 1.185 OPS against lefties this season, while Hernandez has a hot bat after registering four hits and two home runs in the NLCS.

Players to Watch - Rays

The only Rays batter with multiple hits on Tuesday night was Kevin Kiermaier.

Kiermaier opened up the scoring for Tampa Bay with a solo blast off Kershaw in the fifth inning, and he drove in a run in the seventh inning. That’s great news for the Rays, as it was feared that Kiermaier wouldn’t be the same hitter after taking a fastball off the hand in the ALCS against the Astros. The Gold Glove winning center fielder had a scant .605 OPS before that bomb.

It continues to be a frustrating postseason for Brandon Lowe.

Lowe went 0-4 with a strikeout against the Dodgers, and he has just six hits in the postseason. He failed to register a single hit against the Yankees in the ALDS, but he had hoped to bounce back after picking up a hit in three straight games before the World Series.

Announcement

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/21

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/21

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