Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/18

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Sunday, October 18

Good Luck on day #292 of 2020!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

How home favorites/underdogs are doing, by conference:
AAC— Home favorites 2-5-1……home underdogs 4-1
ACC— HF 8-7-1…….HU 8-3
Big X— HF 6-4…….HU 3-2
C-USA— HF 1-8……HU 1-3
SEC— HF 6-7…….HU 7-5
Sun Belt— HF 3-2……HU 3-1

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 218.766
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Sunday's Den: Wrapping up a busy Saturday

13) Kentucky 34, Tennessee 7:
— Wildcats had lost 17 games in a row in Knoxville, which was the longest losing skid in one visiting stadium in the country- their last win at Tennessee was in 1984.
— Kentucky won its last two games by a combined 58-9.
— Tennessee changed QB’s twice; Kentucky’s first two scores of the day were pick-6’s.

12) Memphis 50, Central Florida 49:
— Total yards: UCF 798-703
— First downs: Memphis 41-34
— UCF’s QB Gabriel threw for 601 yards in a losing cause.
— Golden Knights missed a 42-yard FG for the win with 0:04 left.

11) Florida State 31, North Carolina 28— Seminoles led 31-7, missed a FG, then had to fight like hell to hang on for the win. UNC threw for 374 yards, outgained FSU 558-432, but converted only 2-12 on third down.

10) Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 14— MSU lost its last three games; in their last two games, Bulldogs scored a total of 16 points, 9 by their defense, only 7 by their offense.

9) Alabama 41, Georgia 24— Crimson Tide outscored Georgia 21-0 in 2nd half; they gained 564 total yards, picked off three Georgia passes. Dawgs completed only 18-40 passes; I’m guessing that USC transfer QB Daniels will get medically cleared to play next week.

8) Arkansas 33, Ole Miss 21— Not often a QB stays in the game long enough to throw six INT’s, but that happened here. Arkansas led 20-0, had lead cut to 20-14, when Rebels converted only 4-16 on third down and turned ball over seven times- hard to win that way.

Arkansas WR Treylon Burks made one of the greatest catches I’ve ever seen for a TD, as good as any catch you’ll see on a Sunday.

7) Upsets of the Week:
— Florida State (+13.5) 31, North Carolina 28
— Coastal Carolina (+9) 30, Louisiana 27
— Kentucky (+6.5) 34, Tennessee 7
— North Texas (+6) 52, Middle Tennessee 35
— South Carolina (+3) 30, Auburn 22

6) Liberty 38, Syracuse 21— Last year, Syracuse was a 19-point favorite at Liberty, and they blanked the Flames, 24-0, but Liberty ran the ball for 338 yards in this game- they were favored by 2.5 points on the road, over an ACC team. Hugh Freeze won’t be at Liberty much longer.

5) South Carolina 30, Auburn 22— Gamecocks hadn’t beaten Auburn since 1933; this was their first win over Auburn in SEC play. Tigers outgained Carolina 481-297, but threw three INT’s.

4) Temple 39, South Florida 37— A gambler at SouthPoint in Las Vegas risked $50,000 to win $10,000 that Temple would win SU; they were down 31-20 with 2:00 left in third quarter, but rallied to win. Had to be a long three hours for that guy, but he did win.

3) I was flipping channels Saturday afternoon, hit the wrong button and found a pro bowling tournament; guy had a perfect game heading into the 10th frame. Francois Lavoie struck out and got his 300 game, which is such a cool event that his opponent was taking pics of him with his cellphone after the game.

2) Dodgers 3, Braves 1 (series 3-3):
— Seager/Turner homered in the first; that was enough.
— Braves had nine hits, were 2-11 with RISP.
— Buehler tossed six shutout innings.

1) Rays 4, Astros 2 (Tampa Bay wins 4-3):
— Morton threw 5.2 scoreless innings.
— Arozarena homered in the first inning.
— Tampa Bay plays Game 1 of the World Series Tuesday.

[Udog]

MLB line movement October 18
Patrick Everson

The Los Angeles Dodgers grabbed a Game 6 victory, forcing a winner-take-all Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles opened as -135 favorites at The SuperBook for Sunday's game.

MLB betting odds are up and getting attention for the lone matchup on the Sunday schedule, Game 7 of the NLCS. The Los Angeles Dodgers look to complete their comeback from a 3-1 series deficit when they face the Atlanta Braves, with the Tampa Bay Rays waiting in the World Series.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s game. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

The Dodgers got back-to-back solo home runs from Corey Seager and Justin Turner as part of a three-run first inning Saturday, and that held up the rest of the way in a 3-1 Game 6 win over the Braves. That sets up a decisive Game 7, with first pitch at 8:15 p.m. ET Sunday.

Atlanta plans to start Ian Anderson, who is 2-0 with a perfect 0.00 ERA in three starts this postseason. Los Angeles’ starter wasn’t determined by late Saturday night, but The SuperBook went ahead and posted a line of Dodgers -135/Braves +125, with a total of 8.

[Udog]

MLB
Weather Report

Sunday, October 18

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, October 18

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 909-910
October 18, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Anderson) 16.960
LA Dodgers
(TBD) 19.012
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-140
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-140); Over




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 18

Best-of-7 series

National League
Atlanta (3-3) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Anderson is 5-2, 2.06 in nine career MLB starts
— Braves are 6-3 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— Anderson needed 85 pitches to throw four shutout innings against the Dodgers, in his last start, his only start vs LA.
— He’s thrown 15.2 scoreless innings in his three playoff starts.

— Braves won eight of their first 11 playoff games, but lost last two.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 24-17 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.

Dodgers haven’t announced a starter; will be a bullpen game.

— Dodgers are 51-20 this year, but 3-3 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 30-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.




MLB

Sunday, October 18

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Trend Report
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Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home


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[Udog]

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 18

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ATLANTA (43 - 28) vs. LA DODGERS (51 - 20) - 8:15 PM
IAN ANDERSON (R) vs. TONY GONSOLIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 30-8 (+15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 43-28 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 7-0 (+7.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Sunday this season.
ATLANTA is 78-64 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 110-77 (+18.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-9 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 18-8 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-3 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.7 Units)

IAN ANDERSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ANDERSON is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

TONY GONSOLIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
GONSOLIN is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.321.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

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[Udog]

909ATLANTA -910 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 40-26 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

[Udog]

MLB public betting, line movement for October 20
Patrick Everson

Mookie Betts and the L.A. Dodgers rode a Game 7 win and NLCS comeback against the Atlanta Braves to return to the World Series, where the Superbook at Westgate installed them as -215 favorites

MLB betting odds move on to the final frontier of this shortened season, the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays both needed seven games in their respective league championship series, and now they’ll meet in the Fall Classic.

The SuperBook at Westgate and PointsBet USA provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for World Series odds as a whole and Tuesday’s Game 1.

Odds to win the World Series

The SuperBook put up its price to win the best-of-7 World Series late Sunday night, opening at Dodgers -215/Rays +185. There was apparently a little Tampa Bay money early, with a move to Dodgers -200/Rays +175.

John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook, was hoping for Braves-Rays, a big win-win, as both sides would’ve been very good for the house. But he’ll settle for Rays-Dodgers.

“The Rays are awesome for us,” Murray said. “We’re a small loser to the Dodgers.”

That’s no surprise, with Las Vegas books always attracting plenty of Dodger dollars, and surely more will show up on the series price and on a game-by-game basis over the next week or so.

Meanwhile, PointsBet USA opened Dodgers -182/Rays +145, and the first move was significant, to Dodgers -200/Rays +160. Patrick Eichner, director of communications for PointsBet USA, said Los Angeles represents a substantial loss should it claim the championship, while Tampa Bay would be a big win.

“The Dodgers were the second-most-bet team to win, behind the Yankees,” Eichner said. “The Rays only account for about 4 percent of the overall bet count on the (World Series) market.”

MLB line movement

The Dodgers rallied from a 3-1 NLCS deficit against the Braves, finishing with a 4-3 Game 7 victory on Sunday night. On the flip side, the Rays blew a 3-0 ALCS lead against the Astros, but came through with a 4-2 Game 7 win Saturday.

Although Game 1 starters weren’t set late Sunday night, The SuperBook went ahead and posted the line at Dodgers -165/Rays +155, with a total of 8. There was no movement Sunday night for Tuesday’s tilt, with first pitch at 8:09 p.m. ET.