Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/17

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Saturday, October 17

Good Luck on day #291 of 2020!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchup Links

MLB Matchups

MLB Game Previews

MLB Hot or Not

MLB Offensive Stats

MLB Defensive Stats

MLB Pitcher Logs

MLB Database


NASCAR Schedules

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

— Astros 7, Rays 4— Houston forces a Game 7.
— Dodgers 7, Braves 3— Seager homered twice for LA.
— BYU 43, Houston 26— BYU improves to 5-0.
— SMU 37, Tulane 34 OT— Mustangs stay unbeaten.
— In the Dodger game, Will Smith hit a homer off of Will Smith.
— Clippers named Tyronn Lue their new head coach.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 217,987
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Saturday's Den: Looking at the successful but very unusual coaching career of Larry Brown

Larry Brown needs to write a book; he’s had a fascinating career, changing jobs a lot, which is a huge understatement. Coach Brown is 80 now; his mom lived to 106. Here is a brief outline of his coaching stops, most of which were very successful.

1972-74) Carolina Cougars, ABA— Went 104-64 in two years; some of his players were Joe Caldwell, Ed Manning (Danny’s father), Billy Cunningham.

1974-79) Denver Nuggets, ABA/NBA— Went 125-43 with Denver in the ABA, 126-91 in the NBA; he had David Thompson, Dan Issel, Paul Silas, Mack Calvin.

1979-81) UCLA Bruins— Went 42-17 in two seasons, lost the 1980 national title game 59-54 to Louisville. But the NCAA vacated these wins because they used two ineligible players during these two seasons.

1981-83) New Jersey Nets— Went 91-67 in two years, then left. He did this more than once.

1983-88) Kansas Jayhawks— Went 135-44 in five years, won the 1988 national title behind star Danny Manning (his dad Ed played for Brown’s Carolina Cougars).

Just as soon as he won the national title, Brown bolted back to pro ball……..

1988-92) San Antonio Spurs— Went 153-131 over 3.5 years, was canned during the 4th year. The next year, San Antonio replaced him with Jerry Tarkanian.

1992-93) Los Angeles Clippers— At one point during his career, I suggested that he might change jobs during a TV timeout; we’d come back and he’d be coaching the other team. It didn’t seem impossible.

He went 64-53 in 1.5 seasons; I mean, the guy won all the time, but never stayed anywhere.

1993-97) Indiana Pacers— Went 190-138 in four seasons, then 22-16 in playoff games, losing twice in Eastern Conference finals.

1997-2003) Philadelphia 76ers— Six years had to feel like an eternity, but he was coaching Allen Iverson. Sixers went 255-205 under Brown, 28-30 in playoff games, losing the 2001 Finals.

2003-05) Detroit Pistons— Won the NBA title the first year, lost in Finals the second, then just like that, he was gone.

2005-06) New York Knicks— Went 23-59 in one very forgettable season.

2008-11) Charlotte Bobcats— Went back to his Carolina basketball roots, went 88-104, made the playoffs the 2nd year, left 28 games (9-19) into the third year.

2012-16) SMU Mustangs— Went 85-39 at SMU, got them to the NCAA’s and to an NIT Final Four, but just like UCLA, he also ran afoul of the NCAA, and left unexpectedly.

— Brown was a good point guard; he was the MVP of the first-ever ABA All-Star Game
— Brown won a national title in the NBA and in college ball, the only guy to do that.
— Brown played for Dean Smith in college at North Carolina, was a very good point guard; his story is unique in basketball- he and his family must be great at packing.

[Udog]

MLB public betting, line movement October 17
Patrick Everson

Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and the Astros trailed the ALCS 3-0, but battled back to force Game 7 Saturday against the Rays. William Hill US opened Tampa Bay a -117 favorite, with Houston +107.

MLB betting odds are on the board for the NLCS and ALCS that just won’t end, with both series on the Saturday schedule. The defending AL champion Houston Astros aim to complete a stunning comeback against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 7, while the Los Angeles Dodgers look to force Game 7 against the Atlanta Braves.

William Hill US provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s games.

MLB line movement

Houston lost the first three games of the ALCS, then rebounded to win three in a row, including Friday’s 7-4 victory in Game 6 to tie the series. William Hill US opened Game 7 at Rays -117/Astros +107, with a total of 8, and there was no movement Friday night for this 8:37 p.m. ET Saturday first pitch.

Los Angeles had to win Friday’s Game 5 to stay alive in the NLCS, and did so, with Will Smith’s three-run bomb in the sixth inning helping fuel a 7-3 victory. The Dodgers pulled within 3-2 in the series and can knot it up in Game 6, which starts at 4:38 p.m. ET.

William Hill US opened at Dodgers -145/Braves +135 late Friday night, with a total of 8.

MLB public betting

The consensus, often a good indicator of where the public stands, showed a near-split decision late Friday night on Astros-Rays, with Houston getting 52 percent of early picks.

[Udog]

MLB
Weather Report

Saturday, October 17

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 17

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 905-906
October 17, 2020 @ 4:38 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Fried) 18.893
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 17.775
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-150
8
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+130); Under

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 905-906
October 17, 2020 @ 8:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCullers) 17.254
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 15.802
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-120
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+100); Over






MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 17

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-3) (@ San Diego)
McCullers is 1-4, 4.08 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 6-7 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— McCullers is 1-1, 2.93 in 13 playoff games (6 starts).
— He is 1-3, 3.81 in four starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros are 2nd team EVER to force Game 7 in a series they trailed 3-0.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 8-4 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 17-27 on road this season.

Ex-Astro Morton is 4-0, 3.15 in his last four starts.
— Rays are 7-4 in his starts this season.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 6-2, 3.16 in 11 playoff games (10 starts).
— He is 5-6, 6.06 in 12 career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its 13 playoff games, but lost last three.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-16 away from home this season.
— Under is 9-4 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (3-2) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Fried is 1-0, 2.65 in his last three starts.
— Braves are 13-1 in his starts this season.
— Over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— Fried is 1-2, 4.76 in four starts against the Dodgers.
— He is 0-0, 3.86 in 11 playoff games (3 starts)

— Braves won eight of their first ten playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 24-16 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-0 in their last four games.

Buehler is 0-1, 2.12 in his last four starts (17 IP).
— Dodgers are 9-2 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-0 in his last four starts.
— Buehler is 1-1, 2.74 in nine career playoff starts.
— He is 2-0, 2.08 in three starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 50-20 this year, but 2-3 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 29-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 4-0 in their last four games.




MLB

Saturday, October 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games
LA Dodgers is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 17

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (43 - 27) vs. LA DODGERS (50 - 20) - 4:38 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 42-13 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 43-27 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 15-3 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ATLANTA is 110-76 (+19.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 20-8 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 18-7 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
FRIED is 13-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 20-3 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 (+2.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

MAX FRIED vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FRIED is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.588.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. ATLANTA since 1997
BUEHLER is 2-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 0.896.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (37 - 35) vs. TAMPA BAY (48 - 25) - 8:37 PM
LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 305-327 (-63.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
HOUSTON is 44-41 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 99-73 (-16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 48-25 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 74-37 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 32-16 (+10.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 37-15 (+18.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-7 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-3 (+0.7 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.9 Units)

LANCE MCCULLERS JR. vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MCCULLERS JR. is 1-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.038.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 6-6 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.48 and a WHIP of 1.574.
His team's record is 7-6 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-8. (-3.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

905ATLANTA -906 LA DODGERS
ATLANTA is 9-1 SU (7.9 Units) in road games in day games in the current season.

907HOUSTON -908 TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON is 28-36 SU (-12.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.