Announcement

**Udog** · 10-16-2020, 10:03 AM

We are not here merely to make a living. We are here to enrich the world with a finer spirit of hope and achievement- and we impoverish ourselves if we forget the errand.

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL leaders in receiving yardage:
421— Allen Robinson, Chi
403— Stefon Diggs, Buff
403— DK Metcalf, Sea
401— Amari Cooper, Dal
397— DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz
387— Terry McLaurin, Wash

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 217,497
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Friday's Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

13) How would you like to be a fly on the wall at Nick Saban’s house Saturday night, when he is in quarantine while Alabama plays Georgia in the week’s biggest college football game?

Saban and the Alabama AD both tested positive for COVID, so he is stuck at home for a while, and the rules say coaches in the booth cannot communicate with outside places while the game is going on. Hopefully, Mrs Saban takes the dog for a long walk and gives Nick some space.

Part of me says there is no way Saban isn’t texting some student manager and having the kid deliver messages to Steve Sarkisian.

Semi-related side note: Alabama’s basketball coach Nate Oats said Thursday that he had COVID back in July.

12) News Item of the Day: Utah Jazz hired Sergi Olivia away from the 76ers’ front office, to join their coaching staff. Olivia had been the Vice President of Strategy for the Sixers.

This isn’t really big news, but that is a tremendous job title; Vice President of Strategy

I’ve been retired from my job for almost six years now, but I’ve worked in basketball analytics in both college/high school basketball— I’d love to be someone’s Vice President of Strategy. It just sounds so freakin’ important.

11) A new casino that is rumored to have an excellent sportsbook will open in downtown Las Vegas October 28; the Circa will be a 2-story casino with a 3-story sportsbook. It appears as if the top level of the sports ook is a very large swimming pool in front of huge TV screens. They’re billing it as the biggest sportsbook in Las Vegas history.

10) Jets dump RB Le’Veon Bell and the Chiefs jump in and sign him; problem is, Bell hasn’t been a productive player for quite a while. He’s out of excuses now; he better produce in that offense, or his career is history.

9) In September, $748.5M, that’s million with an M, was wagered on sports in New Jersey.

8) Houston Rockets let GM Daryl Morey resign Thursday, rather than fire him- guys don’t quit jobs like that unless they’re jumping to another lucrative gig.

Morey is an MIT graduate, an analytics guy who sparked a rift between the NBA and Chinese government when he tweeted support for anti-government protesters in Hong Kong about this time last year. That cost the NBA a boatload of money in China, and money talks, so Morey walks.

7) Indiana Pacers have never won an NBA title, but four of their head coaches have, three of them after they left Indiana, one before he got there:
— Jack Ramsay, Portland
— Larry Brown, Detroit
— Rick Carlisle, Dallas
— Frank Vogel, Lakers

6) White Sox are interviewing 76-year old Tony Larussa for their open managing job; he last managed in the majors with St Louis, in 2011. He started as a manager with the White Sox way back in 1979.

5) Just when I thought ESPN couldn’t be more annoying, they’re starting to show football games from Newman HS in Louisiana, because Peyton Manning’s nephew is the QB there- the kid is in 10th grade, let him be a kid. He doesn’t need his games shown on national TV.

4) Arkansas State 59, Georgia State 52:
— Said this yesterday; ESPN needs to show more Sun Belt football.
— Arkansas State plays two QB’s; in their last two games, they’re a combined 61-97 for 968 yards and 14 TD’s throwing the ball.
— Total yardage in this game: 609-583, ASU

3) Astros 4, Rays 3 (Tampa Bay leads 3-2)
— Carlos Correa hit a walk-off homer, series is 3-2 Tampa Bay.
— First five pitchers Houston used in this game are rookies.

2) Braves 10, Dodgers 2 (Atlanta leads 3-1):
— Atlanta broke open a 1-1 tie with six runs in 6th inning.
— Bryse Wilson allowed one hit, one run in six outstanding innings.
— Marcell Ozuna homered twice for the Braves.

1) Before I go, let me settle an argument; Michael Jordan isn’t the best basketball player ever, and neither is Lebron James, though they’re both in the top five.

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the best basketball player ever; after his freshman season at UCLA, when the Bruins’ freshman team beat the UCLA varsity by 20, the NCAA outlawed the dunk, a ban that lasted for ten years. (Freshman weren’t allowed on the varsity back then)

When Kareem was a rookie in the NBA with Milwaukee, the Bucks went 56-26 and lost in the Eastern Conference final- it was their 2nd year of existence- they won the NBA title the next year. Kareem may not have a big personality or be the face of a shoe company, but he was the most dominant basketball player ever.

**Udog** · 10-16-2020, 10:05 AM

MLB public betting, line movement October 16
Patrick Everson

Mookie Betts and the Dodgers are in a 3-1 NLCS hole and a must-win situation for Friday night's Game 5 against the Braves. Most sportsbooks didn't post a Game 5 moneyline Thursday night.

MLB betting odds provide two pivotal games once again, with the NLCS and ALCS both on the Friday schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a must-win Game 5 against the Atlanta Braves, and ditto for the resilient Houston Astros in Game 6 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s games.

MLB line movement

Atlanta had a six-run sixth-inning outburst en route to a 10-2 Game 4 victory over Clayton Kershaw and Los Angeles on Thursday, giving the Braves a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. With starters not yet set for Friday’s 9:08 p.m. ET Game 5, most sportsbooks didn’t post a line Thursday night.

Tampa Bay won the first three games of the ALCS, but is now in a dogfight after two straight losses. In Game 5 Thursday, Carlos Correa hit a walk-off solo shot in the bottom of the ninth inning to give defending AL champion Houston a 4-3 victory.

Caesars sportsbooks opened Game 6 at Rays -130/Astros +120, and there was no movement Thursday night for Friday’s 6:07 p.m. ET first pitch. The total of 8 also didn’t move Thursday night.

MLB public betting

The consensus, often indicative of public play, showed a modest lean toward Tampa Bay late Thursday night. The Rays were landing 54 percent of early picks, while the total had 58 percent of early picks on the Under.

**Udog** · 10-16-2020, 10:07 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Friday, October 16

**Udog** · 10-16-2020, 10:15 AM

901HOUSTON -902 TAMPA BAY
HOUSTON is 27-36 SU (-13.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

903LA DODGERS -904 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 8-0 SU (8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite in the current season.

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 16

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 901-902
October 16, 2020 @ 6:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Valdez) 15.791
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.265
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-135); Under

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta

Game 903-904
October 16, 2020 @ 9:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(May) 17.276
Atlanta
(TBD) 18.695
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-220
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+190); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 16

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HOUSTON (36 - 35) vs. TAMPA BAY (48 - 24) - 6:07 PM
FRAMBER VALDEZ (L) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 36-35 (-8.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 48-24 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-6 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 24-11 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 (+0.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.0 Units)

FRAMBER VALDEZ vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
VALDEZ is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

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LA DODGERS (49 - 20) vs. ATLANTA (43 - 26) - 9:08 PM
DUSTIN MAY (R) vs. JOSH TOMLIN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 (+3.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

DUSTIN MAY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

JOSH TOMLIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
TOMLIN is 1-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.800.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 16

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-2) (@ San Diego)
Valdez is 4-1, 1.72 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 9-5 in his starts this season.
— Over is 6-2 in his last eight starts.
— Valdez is 2-1, 3.00 in three playoff games (2 starts).
— He gave up two runs in six IP in his first start vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros scored total of 13 runs in first five games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 8-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 16-27 on road this season.

Snell is 4-1, 2.53 in his last six starts.
— Rays are 9-5 in his starts this season.
— Under is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— Snell is 2-1, 2.57 in six playoff games (4 starts).
— He is 3-2, 4.58 in seven career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its 12 playoff games, but lost last two.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-15 away from home this season.
— Under is 9-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (3-1) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Sounds like a bullpen game

— Braves won eight of their first nine playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 24-15 away from home this season.
— Over is 3-0 in their last three games.

May hasn’t allowed a run in his last 8.2 IP, but they were spread out over four stints. He’s been an opener, a reliever; he may be asked to go longer here, if he does well.
— He’s allowed one run in 8 IP in five playoff games (1 start).
— He’s allowed four runs in 3.2 IP in two games vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 49-20 this year, but 1-3 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 28-11 away from home this season.
— Over is 3-0 in their last three games.

MLB

Friday, October 16

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Trend Report
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Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

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Announcement

Friday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/16

Friday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/16

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