Announcement

**Udog** · 10-15-2020, 08:19 AM

My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world.

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL leaders in passing yardage:
1,856— Dak Prescott, Dal
1,589— Josh Allen, Buff
1,502— Russell Wilson, Sea
1,474— Patrick Mahomes, KC
1,472— Matt Ryan, Atl
1,460— Teddy Bridgewater, Car

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 216,469
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

13) What are the odds of a guy hitting a home run in a playoff game two nights in a row, have both homers go into his team’s bullpen, and have the same relief pitcher catch the baseballs on the fly? It happened this week.

Atlanta’s Ozzie Albies homered twice and closer Mark Melancon caught both balls, once when he was warming up to close the game out.

Later that night, Dr Tom House tweeted this out:

“It’s very fun to catch a teammate’s HR in the bullpen. Trust me.”

Tom House was a reliever for the Braves in 1974; he was in the Atlanta bullpen and caught Hank Aaron’s 715th home run that broke Babe Ruth’s record.

12) Sunday in Baltimore, the Bengals kicked a field goal in the last minute when they trailed 27-0, making them only the second NFL team in the last 25 years to kick a field goal in the last minute, just to avoid being shut out.

In 2006, Jon Gruden’s Buccaneers kicked a last-minute FG when they trailed Pittsburgh 20-0.

11) Coastal Carolina 30, Louisiana 27:
— Sun Belt is good football; ESPN needs to show more of their games.
— Total yardage was 414-413, that’s how good a game this was.
— Chanticleers kicked a 40-yard FG with 0:04 left for the win.
— Both teams ran the ball for 200+ yards.

10) Quick story, with the joke on me:

October 2009, I’m sitting in the sportsbook at Planet Hollywood; love the place, great 24-hour coffee shop (generous video poker machine right near that coffee shop), lot of good places to eat and people-watch, and lot of TV’s.

Anyway, I’m watching the Texas-Oklahoma game and Sooners’ QB Sam Bradford is getting pummeled by the Longhorns; he looks like he’s about to fall apart and I’m thinking to myself, “Which NFL team will be stupid enough to draft this guy? He can’t stay healthy in college ball, how will he ever last in the NFL?”

So of course, six months later, the Rams draft him in the first round; no bueno. He went 18-30-1 starting for the Rams, got hurt a lot, made a boatload of money. What a disaster.

9) Want to win a bar bet? Micheal Williams of the Timberwolves holds the NBA record for consecutive free throws made; he knocked down 97 in a row, back in 1993.

8) Tuesday was the anniversary of a couple of interesting sports days:
— In 1960, Bill Mazeroski hit a walk-off homer for the Pirates in Game 7 of the World Series.
— In 1967, the ABA started its first season, with an Oakland-Anaheim game.

7) These days, I’m re-reading a 1990 book called Loose Balls, the history of the ABA, which was a fun league that made basketball a lot better. If things get slow again this winter like they did last winter, I could spend a week in this space telling stories from this book.

6) I’m usually in Las Vegas this week, relaxing and watching the baseball playoffs, football and resting up before college basketball prep begins, but because 2020 sucks, I’m reading books and eating PopTarts at 3am, which ain’t bad, but it ain’t Vegas.

5) Five weeks into the NFL season, and the Rams have already played/beaten all four teams in the NFC East, which is actually fortunate scheduling, seeing how three of those teams have new coaches this season. Rough season to be breaking in a new program.

4) NBA commissioner Adam Silver was apparently very happy with how the NBA bubble went; all NBA employees got a $1,000 bonus, and four extra days off this fall.

3) Get well soon to Alabama football coach Nick Saban and AD Greg Byrne, both of whom tested positive for COVID.

2) Astros 4, Rays 3 (Tampa Bay leads 3-1)
— Houston stays alive; Rays had tying run on 3rd in last inning.
— This was first AL playoff game this year where both starting pitchers went 6+ innings.
— Altuve homered in first inning in 3 of 4 games in this series.

1) Dodgers 15, Braves 3 (Atlanta leads 2-1):
— Dodgers scored 11 runs in top of the 1st, the most runs scored in an inning in any playoff game, ever.
— Game started with a ground out to 3B that was overturned by replay; then all hell broke loose.
— Seager scored in three runs, knocked in three more.
— Braves are now 7-1 in the playoffs.

**Udog** · 10-15-2020, 08:20 AM

MLB public betting, line movement October 15
Patrick Everson

Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers can tie up the NLCS in Game 4 Thursday night against the Astros. Caesars sportsbooks opened the Dodgers -200 favorites and quickly moved to -215.

MLB betting odds once again give us two big games, with the NLCS and ALCS both on the Thursday schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers aim to tie the NLCS in Game 4 against the Atlanta Braves, while the Tampa Bay Rays get their second crack at ending the ALCS against the Houston Astros.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s games.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles climbed into the NLCS with a bang, piling up 11 runs in the first inning of Game 3 and coasting to a 15-3 victory Tuesday to pull within 2-1 in the best-of-seven series. Now, the Dodgers plan to have scratched Game 2 starter Clayton Kershaw take the ball in the 8:08 p.m. ET Game 4.

Caesars sportbooks certainly expect Kershaw on the bump, opening the Dodgers -200 favorites late Wednesday night, with the Braves +180. Less than 30 minutes later, the line was up to Dodgers -215/Braves +190.

Houston nabbed its first win of the ALCS, topping Tampa Bay 4-2 in Game 4 Wednesday night, but the Rays still hold a commanding 3-1 lead entering a 5:07 p.m. ET Game 5. With Thursday’s starters not yet set, most sportsbooks didn’t put up a line Wednesday night, so check back for updates.

MLB public betting

With the line for NLCS Game 4 coming out late Wednesday night, the consensus sample was very limited. However, Kershaw’s corner was the early leader, with the Dodgers getting 67 percent of picks against the Braves.

**Udog** · 10-15-2020, 08:24 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, October 15

**Udog** · 10-15-2020, 08:30 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 15

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 975-976
October 15, 2020 @ 5:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(TBD) 17.533
Houston
(TBD) 15.523
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-135); Under

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta

Game 977-978
October 15, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 16.019
Atlanta
(Wilson) 17.219
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
13
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-225
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+195); Over

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 15

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-1) (@ San Diego)
Unknown starting pitcher— probably bullpen game

— Astros scored total of nine runs in first four games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 7-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 15-27 on road this season.

Unknown starting pitcher— probably bullpen game

— Tampa Bay won eight of its 11 playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (2-1) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Wilson allowed one run in eight IP in two late-season starts.
— Atlanta split the two starts.
— Over is 2-0 in his starts.
— He has never pitched against the Dodgers; this is his first career playoff game.

— Braves won seven of their first eight playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 23-15 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.

Kershaw has been batting physical problems; he is 8-2, 2.61 in 12 starts this year.
— Dodgers are 10-2 in his starts this season.
— Over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— He s 11-11, 4.23 in 34 playoff games (27 starts)
— He is 5-0, 1.78 in 11 career starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 49-19 this year, but 1-2 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 28-10 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-4 in their last nine games.

MLB

Thursday, October 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tampa Bay @ Houston
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-15-2020, 09:05 AM

975TAMPA BAY -976 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 26-36 SU (-14.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

977LA DODGERS -978 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 11-1 SU (9.9 Units) when playing on Thursday in the current season.

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (48 - 23) vs. HOUSTON (35 - 35) - 5:07 PM
BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. LUIS GARCIA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 (+1.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

LUIS GARCIA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (49 - 19) vs. ATLANTA (42 - 26) - 8:08 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. BRYSE WILSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 42-26 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 50-32 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 17-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA DODGERS are 94-58 (+33.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

BRYSE WILSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-15-2020, 03:37 PM

LA Dodgers - P Clayton Kershaw (back) is expected to start tonight versus Atlanta.

Tampa Bay - CF Kevin Kiermaier (hand) is questionable tonight versus Houston.

BULLPEN
Tampa Bay's relievers have pitched 10 innings in the last 3 games.

BULLPEN
Houston's relievers have pitched 8 innings in the last 3 games.

BULLPEN
LA Dodgers's relievers have pitched 12.2 innings in the last 3 games

BULLPEN
Atlanta's relievers have pitched 16.1 innings in the last 3 games.

Announcement

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/15

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/15

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