Announcement

**Udog** · 10-14-2020, 08:37 AM

I really owe everything to my parents and their devotion and drive to see to it that their children had the education which led to the opportunities that they never were able to have.

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Some interesting spreads for Week 6 college games:
— Georgia State @ Arkansas State (-3.5)
— SMU (-6.5) @ Tulane
— Boston College @ Virginia Tech (-11.5)
— Pittsburgh @ Miami (-10.5)
— South Florida @ Temple (-10.5)
— Navy (-2) @ East Carolina

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 215,294
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings…….

13) Tennessee 42, Bills 16
— Total yardage: 370-334 Buffalo, very misleading stat.
— Four of six Tennessee TD drives were 30 or fewer yards.
— Buffalo converted 13-17 third down plays, and only scored 16 points.
— All five Buffalo games went over the total.

— Tennessee won its first four games, scoring 30.5 ppg.
— Titans are +8 in turnovers, best ratio in the league.
— Tennessee is 4-0 for first time since 2008.
— Titans won field position by 29 yards, biggest margin I’ve seen.

12) With Buffalo playing last night, their Thursday night game with the Chiefs this week was pushed back to Sunday afternoon— NFL won’t have a Thursday night game this week, but there are a couple college games on the board to amuse us.

11) Dallas Cowboys signed QB Garrett Gilbert to fill out its QB room; Gilbert was the leading passer in the AAF before it folded (Orlando Apollos)- he was drafted by the Rams, played at Texas/SMU in college and was most recently on Cleveland’s practice squad.

10) How will the Dallas offense change with Dak Prescott out? Andy Dalton is obviously a competent NFL QB, but he isn’t as mobile- I figure the Cowboys will run the ball more.

Dallas has taken 76.2 snaps/game so far this year, most in the league; only 15.7% of those plays came on 3rd down, 2nd lowest %age in the NFL, behind Seattle. Cowboys’ tempo figures to slow down some, don’t you think?

9) Thru five games, Seattle has run 76 fewer plays than their opponents, but they’re 5-0; 12 of their 23 touchdowns have come on plays of 18+ yards.

Surprising stat: Seattle has allowed 25+ points in each of its last 10 home games.

8) Last four games, LA Chargers have been outscored 64-29 in 2nd half/OT; they lost all four games, all by 7 or fewer points, two of them in OT.

7) So far this season, AFC teams are 11-9-1 SU vs NFC opponents.

6) This is the first time ever that Iowa State is in the college football top 25, while Texas and Oklahoma are outside the top 25.

5) Wichita State basketball coach Gregg Marshall is being investigated by the school after he was charged with mental/physical abuse by former players. Marshall has been at Wichita for 13 years; he led the Shockers to the 2013 Final Four, has made the NCAAs 7 of the last 8 years it was played- they were 23-8 LY, so they would’ve made it again.

4) Some good news in college basketball; Mountain West will play an 18-game conference season, starting December 29.

3) Kansas State QB Skyler Thompson is out for the year, with an arm/shoulder/collarbone injury. Freshman Will Howard steps in to replace him- he was 8-19/117 yards and an INT in the Wildcats’ 21-14 win at TCU last week.

2) Rays 5, Astros 2 (Tampa Bay leads 3-0)
— Yarbrough threw five strong innings; five relievers closed the game out.
— Rays scored all five of their runs in 6th inning; Wendle knocked in two runs.
— Altuve homered in first inning in 2 of 3 games in this series, but he also had a huge throwing error. After not having a throwing error all season, he has three in this series.

1) Braves 8, Dodgers 7 (Atlanta leads 2-0):
— Braves are 7-0 in the playoffs, but hung on for dear life in this game.
— Atlanta led 7-0 in 7th inning; Dodgers had tying run on third in last inning.
— Atlanta’s rookie P Anderson was lifted after four shutout innings (85 PT).
— Albies homered into the Atlanta bullpen again; for 2nd straight night, closer Melancon caught the ball on the fly.

**Udog** · 10-14-2020, 08:41 AM

MLB public betting, line movement October 14
Patrick Everson

It's desperation time for Carlos Correa and the Houston Astros, who must win Game 4 of the ALCS to keep their season alive. However, PointsBet USA has the Rays as -145 favorites.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Wednesday schedule that again includes the ALCS and NLCS. The Tampa Bay Rays go for a sweep of the defending AL champion Houston Astros, and the suddenly desperate Los Angeles Dodgers hope to start making up ground against the Atlanta Braves.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s games.

MLB line movement

Tampa Bay trailed 1-0 entering the sixth inning of Game 3 Tuesday night, then exploded for five runs in the top of that frame and made those stand up in a 5-2 victory over Houston. The Rays take a 3-0 series lead into Wednesday’s 8:40 p.m. ET Game 4, looking to quickly finish off the best-of-7 ALCS and earn a berth in the World Series.

The Astros hope Zack Greinke can save their bacon, but PointsBet USA pegged Tyler Glasnow and the Rays a -140 favorite late Tuesday night. The line then moved to Tampa -145/Houston +125.

In the NLCS, Los Angeles planned to have ace Clayton Kershaw in Tuesday’s Game 2, but he was scratched due to back spasms. Atlanta took advantage, posting a 6-0 lead through five innings and holding off a ninth-inning Dodgers rally for an 8-7 victory to go up 2-0 in the NLCS.

The Dodgers won’t have Kershaw for Wednesday’s critical 6:05 p.m. ET start, instead going to Julio Urias, but Los Angeles opened a -170 favorite at Caesars, with Atlanta +155. The total opened at 9.5, and neither the line nor total moved through Tuesday night.

MLB public betting

In a very small sample size late Tuesday night, the consensus showed 80 percent of picks coming in on the Rays to sweep away the Astros. Meanwhile, NLCS Game 3 was getting two-way play, with the desperate Dodgers landing 53 percent of early picks.

**Udog** · 10-14-2020, 08:43 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, October 14

**Udog** · 10-14-2020, 08:49 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 14

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta

Game 973-974
October 14, 2020 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Urias) 18.667
Atlanta
(Wright) 17.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-175
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-175); Over

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 971-972
October 14, 2020 @ 8:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 17.898
Houston
(Greinke) 15.158
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-140
8
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+120); Under

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 14

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (3-0) (@ San Diego)
Greinke is 0-3, 6.14 in his last six starts.
— Houston is 6-8 in his starts, 2-5 away from home.
— Under is 4-2 in his six starts.
— Greinke is 3-6, 4.29 in 18 career playoff starts.
— He is 4-6, 3.36 in 17 games (14 starts) against Tampa Bay.

— Astros scored total of five runs in losing first three games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 6-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-27 on road this season.

Glasnow is 4-0, 3.33 in his last five starts.
— Tampa Bay won Glasnow’s last 11 starts.
— Over is 3-1 in his last four starts.
— Glasnow is 2-2, 5.31 in five career playoff starts.
— He allowed one un in five IP in his one start vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won eight of its ten playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 28-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 7-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta (2-0) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Wright is 2-0, 0.95 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 5-4 in his starts, 4-3 away from home.
— Under is 6-3 in his starts.
— Wright threw six shutout innings in his one playoff start.
— He has never pitched against the Dodgers.

— Braves won their first seven playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 23-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-2 in their playoff games.

Urias is 2-0, 1.75 in his last five appearances (23 IP)
— Dodgers are 5-5 in his starts this season.
— Over is 3-0 in his last three starts.
— He s 4-2, 3.42 in 14 playoff games (1 start)
— He threw four scoreless innings in two relief appearances vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-19 this year, but 0-2 this week.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-10 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

MLB

Wednesday, October 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Tampa Bay @ Houston
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games on the road
Houston
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-14-2020, 09:52 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (48 - 22) vs. HOUSTON (34 - 35) - 8:40 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 48-22 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 24-8 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 32-15 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 37-13 (+21.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-15 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
GLASNOW is 12-2 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
GLASNOW is 13-0 (+13.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GLASNOW is 16-3 (+14.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 34-35 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 15-21 (-23.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-22 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 97-73 (-18.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 54-45 (-10.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.0 Units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. HOUSTON since 1997
GLASNOW is 1-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.583.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GREINKE is 4-7 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.221.
His team's record is 5-10 (-7.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-6. (+1.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (48 - 19) vs. ATLANTA (42 - 25) - 6:05 PM
JULIO URIAS (L) vs. KYLE WRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 194-205 (-65.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
ATLANTA is 42-25 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 77-62 (+15.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 17-5 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-0 (+2.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)

JULIO URIAS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

KYLE WRIGHT vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-14-2020, 10:27 AM

971TAMPA BAY -972 HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 25-36 SU (-15.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

973LA DODGERS -974 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 37-25 SU (10.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

Announcement

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/14

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/14

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment