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**Udog** · 10-13-2020, 09:46 AM

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Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Some interesting spreads for Week 6 college games:
— Auburn (-3.5) @ South Carolina
— Virginia (-3) @ Wake Forest
— Kentucky @ Tennessee (-6)
— Ole Miss (-3) @ Arkansas
— LSU @ Florida (-13)
— Georgia @ Alabama (-6)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 214,985
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) New Orleans 30, Chargers 27 OT
— Chargers lost their last four games, two of them in OT.
— Under Lynn, LA’s record in games decided by 8 or fewer points is 3-13.
— Chargers missed a PAT, hit the upright on a 50-yard FG at gun in regulation.
— Chargers are 9-7-2 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.

— Saints scored 30+ points in four of their five games.
— Sanders caught 12 footballs for 122 yards.
— All five New Orleans games went over the total.
— Saints allowed 34-37 points in their losses; 23-29-27 in their wins.
— New Orleans is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite.

12) Tonight’s Buffalo-Tennessee game won’t be the first NFL regular season game played on a Tuesday; 10 years ago, Vikings beat Philly 24-14 on a game postponed because of a blizzard in Philadelphia. It was Michael Vick’s rookie year; Joe Webb was the Vikings’ QB.

11) Thru five weeks, NFC East doesn’t have a team at .500 or better; this is only third time this ever happened- the 2013 NFC East (Eagles wound up winning it at 10-6) and 1968 Century Division (Browns wound up 10-4, after starting out 2-3).

10) One of the coolest things about baseball is that heroes come in all shapes and sizes; Mike Brosseau got Tampa Bay into the ALCS when he homered in the 8th inning of Game 5 in the ALDS.

Brosseau played college ball at Oakland in Michigsn- he was undrafted out of college, didn’t get to AA until 2018, but he got to AAA and the majors last year, and hit .302 in 86 AB’s this year. Now he’s hit one of the, if not THE biggest home run in Rays’ history.

9) Random fact: 8 of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL transferred while they were in college, and that doesn’t count the guys who went to junior college.

8) Dak Prescott’s shattered ankle means that Andy Dalton is now the Dallas QB; his backup is rookie Ben DiNucci, a 7th round draft pick from I-AA James Madison.

Guy on social media wrote a factual tweet about how Prescott was playing this year on a 1-year tender, rather than signing a lucrative multi-year deal, and the shattered ankle makes giving him a multi-year deal very risky. The guy got roasted by others for reporting facts- welcome to 2020.

7) Seahawks won 27-26 in dramatic fashion Sunday night, but they went 0-7 on third down conversions. Not often a team scores 27 points without converting one third down play- they did convert both their 4th down tries, including the game-winning TD with 0:15 left.

6) The Wall Street Journal reports that Red Sox owner John Henry “is in talks to join with an investment vehicle for an $8 billion deal that would take his famed sports holdings public, according to people familiar with the matter.”

Fenway Sports Group’s holdings include:
— Boston Red Sox
— Fenway Park
— New England Sports Network
— Liverpool soccer team
— Salem Red Sox
— Roush Fenway Racing
— Fenway Sports Management

5) Chicago White Sox fired manager Rick Renteria Monday; White Sox went 35-25 this year, lost in the Wild Card round in three games to Oakland. Overall, Renteria went 236-309 as skipper of the Pale Hose, after going 73-89 in his one year managing the Cubs- they fired him when Joe Maddon became available.

White Sox were 32-16 at one point this season, but went 4-11 in their last 15 games, and that was enough to get Renteria shown the door.

4) Clemson Tigers have now won 36 consecutive regular season football games.

3) Lakers’ championship this year is their 17th ever; five of those 17 titles came when the team was in Minneapolis (Minnesota is the Land of 10,000 Lakes).
— Rajon Rondo joins Clyde Lovelettte as only players ever to win a title as both a Laker and a Celtic.
— Lebron James took some heat for passing to Danny Green for an open 3-pointer at the end of Game 5; to me, that is part of what makes James so great, he trusted his teammate to make a shot (Green is a career 40% shooter on the arc). Green missed, but that’s not the point. Great teams have players who trust each other, and addition to great talent, that is why they win.

2) Rays 4, Astros 2 (Tampa Bay leads 2-0)
— Bregman flied to center with bases loaded to end the game.
— Margot hit a 3-run homer in the first inning, after an Altuve throwing error.
— Zunino hit a 454-foot homer for the Rays- he has three homers this postseason, after he hit .147 during the regular season.
— In MLB history, teams that went up 2-0 in best-of-7 series have won the series 72 of 85 times (84.7%).

1) Braves 5, Dodgers 1 (Atlanta leads 1-0):
— Braves scored four times in ninth inning; they’re 6-0 in the playoffs.
— Riley, Albies homered in the decisive 9th inning.
— Teams were a combined 1-14 with runners in scoring position.
— Roughly 11,000 fans were allowed to come in and watch this game, in Arlington TX.

**Udog** · 10-13-2020, 09:48 AM

MLB public betting, line movement October 13
Patrick Everson

Brandon Lowe and the Rays look to take a commanding 3-0 ALCS lead when they meet the Astros on Wednesday night. Caesars sportsbooks opened Game 3 a -105 pick 'em.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Tuesday schedule that again has both the ALCS and NLCS in play. The Tampa Bay Rays can take firm control of their series against the Houston Astros, and Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers look to bounce back against the Atlanta Braves.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement and public betting for Tuesday’s games.

MLB line movement

Tampa Bay notched a 4-2 victory Monday over Houston to take a 2-0 lead in the ALCS. A Rays win in Tuesday’s 8:40 p.m. ET Game 3 would make it very difficult for the defending AL champion Astros to return to the World Series. Caesars books opened Game 3 a -105 pick ‘em, and there was no movement through Monday night.

Atlanta and Los Angeles played a Game 1 gem in the NLCS, going to the ninth inning tied at 1. Then the Braves produced four runs in the top of the ninth to get a 5-1 victory. But with Kershaw toeing the slab in Tuesday’s 6:05 p.m. ET start, Caesars opened at Dodgers -155/Braves +145 late Monday night.

MLB public betting

The consensus is often a good indicator of what the public thinks, and on Monday night, there was belief that Houston would rebound in Game 3. The Astros were taking 70 percent of early picks against the Rays.

Likewise, the expectation Monday night was that the Dodgers would knot up the series with the Braves. Los Angeles was attracting 67 percent of early consensus picks.

**Udog** · 10-13-2020, 09:51 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Tuesday, October 13

**Udog** · 10-13-2020, 09:58 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 13

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 969-970
October 13, 2020 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Anderson) 18.576
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 17.396
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+140); Under

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 967-968
October 13, 2020 @ 8:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Yarbrough) 15.315
Houston
(Urquidy) 16.498
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-115
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-105); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 13

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TAMPA BAY (47 - 22) at HOUSTON (34 - 34) - 8:40 PM
RYAN YARBROUGH (L) vs. JOSE URQUIDY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 47-22 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 23-8 (+11.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
TAMPA BAY is 26-14 (+12.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 31-15 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 36-13 (+20.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 30-15 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 34-34 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 89-71 (-21.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 46-42 (-23.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

RYAN YARBROUGH vs. HOUSTON since 1997
YARBROUGH is 0-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 0.833.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

JOSE URQUIDY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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ATLANTA (41 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (48 - 18) - 6:05 PM
IAN ANDERSON (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 140-93 (+25.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 16-5 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

IAN ANDERSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 13

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (2-0) (@ San Diego)
Urquidy is 0-0, 3.74 in his last four starts.
— Houston is 3-4 in his starts, 1-3 away from home.
— Under is 4-3 in his seven starts.
— Urquidy is 1-0, 2.89 in six playoff games (3 starts).
— He has never pitched against Tampa Bay.

— Astros won five of their eight playoff games, but scored total of 3 runs in losing first two games in this series.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-26 on road this season.

Yarbrough has a 2.14 RA in his last four appearances (21 IP)
— Tampa Bay is 4-5 in his starts, 3-3 away from home, but some of his appearances aren’t starts.
— Under is 7-2 in his starts this year.
— Yarbrough allowed two runs in 8 IP in four playoff stints, all in relief.
— He is 0-1, 2.92 in 2 career games (1 start) vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won seven of its nine playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 27-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 6-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

Atlanta (1-0) vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Anderson is 5-2, 2.05 in his first eight MLB starts.
— Atlanta is 12-1 in his starts, 5-0 away from home.
— Under is 5-1-2 in his starts.
— Anderson has thrown 11.2 scoreless innings in the playoffs.
— He has never pitched against the Dodgers.

— Braves allowed total of six runs in winning first six playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 22-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-1 in their playoff games.

Kershaw is 3-0, 2.67 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 9-2 in his starts this season.
— Over is 4-2 in his last six starts.
— Kershaw is 11-11, 4.23 in 34 career playoff games (27 starts).
— He is 5-0, 1.78 in 11 starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-18 this year, winning nine of last ten games.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-9 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

MLB

Tuesday, October 13

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Trend Report
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Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Tampa Bay @ Houston
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Houston
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

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Announcement

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/13

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/13

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