Announcement

**Udog** · 10-12-2020, 08:54 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Some interesting spreads for Week 6 NFL games:
— Chicago @ Carolina (-2.5)
— Detroit (-3) @ Jacksonville
— Atlanta @ Minnesota (-3.5)
— Washington @ NJ Giants (-3.5)
— Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)
— Baltimore (-7.5) @ Philadelphia

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a busy sports Sunday……

Raiders 40, Kansas City 32
— Raiders’ five first half drives: 27 plays, 333 yards, 24 points.
— Raiders in 4th quarter: 224 plays, 118 yards, 17 points.
— Las Vegas snaps a 7-game losing streak in Arrowhead.
— All five Raiders games went over the total.

— Chiefs’ first four drives: 25 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
— Chiefs’ last eight drives: 42 plays, 181 yards, 11 points.
— Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.

Pittsburgh 38, Eagles 29
— Philly is giving up 29 ppg this year, allowing 18 TD’s on 54 drives.
— Eagles are off to a 1-3-1 start; they led three of the games at halftime.
— Teams combined to convert 21-29 third down plays in this game.
— NFC East teams are 3-13 ATS outside their division.

— Steelers won their first four games, scoring 26-26-28-38 points.
— Four teams Pittsburgh beat have a combined record of 2-13-1.
— Claypool caught 7 balls for 110 yards, three TD’s, also ran for a TD.
— Home team won seven of last eight series games.

Rams 30, Washington 10
— Rams won four of first five games; this was their third east coast game in last four weeks.
— Rams’ first three drives: 23 plays, 234 yards, 20 points.
— Under McVay, LA is 14-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Second half was played in a steady rain; tough weather for both offenses.

— Redskins in second half: 22 plays, minus-6 yards, no first downs.
— Washington lost its last four games, giving up 31.3 ppg.
— Redskins have been outscored 95-34 in the first half this season.
— Kudos to Alex Smith who played for first time in over 600 days after shattering his leg in a 2018 game. Tough guy,

Houston 30, Jaguars 14
— Jaguars started two drives in Houston territory, didn’t score either time.
— Jaguars lost their last four games, giving up 31.5 ppg.
— Jacksonville is 5-10-1 ATS in last sixteen games as a road underdog.
— Jaguars lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position; very unusual.

— Houston gets its first win; they fired their coach last week.
— Watson threw for 359 yards and three TD’s.
— Cooks caught eight footballs for 161 yards.
— Texans won five in row, nine of last 11 series games

Cardinals 30, NJ Jets 10
— Murray threw for 380 yards; Hopkins caught six balls for 131 yards.
— Cardinals outgained the Jets, 496-255.
— Four of five Arizona games stayed under the total.

— Jets lost their first five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
— Jets scored only 32 points in their last ten red zone drives.
— New York is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a home underdog.

Baltimore 27, Bengals 3
— Bengals’ first half drives: 31 plays, 80 yards, zero points.
— Cincy converted only 3-16 third down plays.
— Bengals had only one play longer than 19 yards.

— Baltimore scored 27+ points in its four wins, 20 in their loss.
— Four of five Raven games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore has outscored opponents 47-20 in second half.
— Baltimore won last four series games, by 3-6-36-24 points.

Panthers 23, Atlanta 16
— Carolina won its last three games, outscoring foes 59-21 in first half.
— Panthers converted 29-59 third down plays this season.
— Carolina snap a 5-game losing streak to the Falcons.

— Falcons lost their first five games, giving up 32.2 ppg.
— Atlanta had a 92-yard TD drive on its first drive, but that was their only touchdown.
— Falcons scored only 3 points on two red zone drives in 4th quarter.
— Atlanta is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite./
— Falcons fired their coach and GM Sunday night.

Dolphins 43, San Francisco 17
— Miami scored a TD, had three FG’s in last 4:38 of the first half.
— Miami scored 31.3 ppg in its last four games (12 TD’s on 39 drives).
— Fitzpatrick threw for 350 yards, three TD’s.

— Road team won all five San Francisco games.
— Niners scored 31-36 points in their wins; 20-20-17 in their losses.
— QB Garoppolo played first half, Beathard the second- they have QB issues.
— 49ers are 5-13-1 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.

Dallas 37, NJ Giants 34
— Giants led 17-3 midway thru 2nd quarter.
— Both teams scored a defensive touchdown.
— Giants had couple TD’s called back by sketchy penalty calls, one on a fake FG.
— Giants covered 13 of last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Costly win; Dak Prescott has a compound fracture of his ankle.
— Cowboys gave up 40 points/game the last four weeks.
— Last four Dallas games went over the total.
— Cowboys won last seven series games.

Cleveland 32, Colts 23
— Colts were in red zone four times, scored only 16 points.
— Rivers threw a pick-6 in 3rd quarter; Colts ran kickoff back for a TD.
— Both QB’s in this game threw two INT’s.

— Cleveland won its last four games, scoring 35-34-49-32 points.
— Cleveland’s first half drives: 45 plays, 289 yards, two TD’s, two FG’s.
— Browns converted 10-17 third down plays.
— AFC North teams are 10-2-1 ATS outside their division.

Seattle 27, Vikings 26
— Seahawks scored a 6-yard TD with 0:15 left for the win- they drove 94 yards for the winning score.
— Seahawks scored three TD’s in a 1:53 span of the 3rd quarter.
— Seattle is 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite

— Vikings led 13-0 at the half; they led 26-21, had 4th-and-foot on the Seattle 6 at the 2:00 warning- they went for it, didn’t get it, then they lost.
— Minnesota lost four of first five games, despite scoring 26+ points four times.
— NFC North teams are 9-4 ATS outside their division.

Rays 2, Astros 1 (Tampa Bay leads 1-0)
— Took Snell 105 pitches to get thru five innings, but he did.
— Tampa’s bullpen tossed four scoreless frames, putting five men on base.
— Altuve homered for Houston’s only run.

Lakers 106, Miami 93 (LA wins NBA title, 4-2)
— Lakers win their 17th NBA title.
— This game wasn’t close; LA led 64-36 at halftime.
— Lebron James is third player ever to win an NBA title for three different teams.

**Udog** · 10-12-2020, 08:56 AM

MLB public betting, line movement October 12
Patrick Everson

Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers look to keep their perfect postseason intact against the Braves in Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday night. Caesars sportsbooks have Los Angeles a -138 favorite.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Monday double dip, courtesy of the NLCS and ALCS. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 1 of the NLCS in Arlington, Texas, preceded by Game 2 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays in San Diego.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s games. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles finished this shortened regular season with the best record in the majors, so it’s no surprise to see the Dodgers in the NLCS. L.A. is a perfect 5-0 in the postseason thus far, coming off a 3-0 sweep of the San Diego Padres in the NLDS. Likewise, Atlanta is 5-0, sweeping the Miami Marlins in the divisional round.

Caesars sportsbooks opened the Dodgers -145 Game 1 favorites, with Atlanta +135, and by late Sunday evening, the moneyline was at Dodgers -138/Braves +128. The total opened at 8 and stuck there through Sunday for Monday’s 8:08 p.m. ET first pitch.

Tampa Bay claimed a 2-1 victory over Houston in Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday. PointsBet USA opened Game 2 at Rays -135/Astros +115, and there was no movement through Sunday night for Monday’s 4:07 p.m. ET start. PointsBet opened the total at 8 and momentarily ticked to 7.5 before going back to 8.

MLB public betting

The Dodgers are always a public team, and that’s showing up in early Covers Consensus play, with 64 percent of picks on Los Angeles through Sunday night. The total was getting two-way play, with 52 percent of picks on the Over.

Astros-Rays Game 2 is also getting two-way traction, with 52 percent of early Covers Consensus picks on Tampa Bay. On the total, 56 percent of picks through Sunday night were on the Over.

**Udog** · 10-12-2020, 09:04 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Monday, October 12

**Udog** · 10-12-2020, 09:08 AM

963HOUSTON -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 77-56 SU (15.4 Units) in home games against right-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

965ATLANTA -966 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 37-23 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 12

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HOUSTON (34 - 32) at TAMPA BAY (45 - 22) - 4:07 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TYLER GLASNOW vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 5-6 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.92 and a WHIP of 1.604.
His team's record is 6-6 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-8. (-4.8 units)

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ATLANTA (40 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (48 - 17) - 8:08 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 139-93 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 62-41 (+20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRIED is 12-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 26-7 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 22-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 19-3 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 2-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX FRIED vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FRIED is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.909.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 12

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (1-0) (@ San Diego)
McCullers is 0-3, 4.98 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 6-6 in his starts, 2-5 away from home.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— McCullers is 1-0, 3.25 in 12 playoff games (5 starts).
— He is 1-2, 3.79 in three career starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros won five of their seven playoff games.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Over is 3-4 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-25 on road this season.

Former Astro Morton is 3-0, 4.20 in his last three starts.
— Tampa Bay is 6-4 in his starts, 2-2 away from home.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 5-2, 3.50 in ten playoff games (9 starts).
— He is 4-6, 6.28 in 11 career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won six of its eight playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 26-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Fried is 0-0, 3.19 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 12-1 in his starts, 5-0 away from home.
— Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— Fried is 0-0, 4.67 in 10 playoff games (2 starts).
— He is 0-2, 6.55 in three career starts vs Atlanta.

— Braves threw four shutouts in winning first five playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 21-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-1 in their playoff games.

Buehler is 0-0, 3.66 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 9-1 in his starts, winning last eight.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Buehler is 1-1, 2.84 in eight career playoff starts.
— He is 2-0, 2.92 in two starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-17 this year, winning last nine games.
— LA outscored foes 30-11 in their five playoff wins.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-8 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.

MLB

Monday, October 12

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Trend Report
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Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

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**Udog** · 10-12-2020, 09:41 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 12

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 963-964
October 12, 2020 @ 4:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCullers) 16.469
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 15.387
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+115); Over

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 965-966
October 12, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Fried) 16.781
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 19.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-145); Under

Announcement

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/12

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/12

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