Announcement

**Udog** · 10-07-2020, 08:57 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for college games this weekend:
— Oklahoma (-2) @ Texas
— Florida (-7) @ Texas A&M
— Tennessee @ Georgia (-13.5)
— Texas Tech @ Iowa State (-13)
— Mississippi State @ Kentucky (-3)
— Miami @ Clemson (-15)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 210,616
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings…….

13) Once in a while it is good to talk about nice things that people do; when the Houston Rockets got eliminated from the NBA playoffs and left the Orlando bubble, Russell Westbrook left an $8,000 tip for the staff at the Grand Floridian Hotel where the Rockets stayed for two months.

12) Green Bay Packers have been very impressive in their 4-0 start:
— They’re scoring 38 ppg (17 TDs on 35 drives)
— Green Bay has gone 3/out once on those 35 drives. Once.
— Packers haven’t turned the ball over yet.
— Green Bay has converted 23-45 third down plays.

11) We’ll talk more later in the season about 3-and-outs and their importance in determining good field position, but so far this season, NFL teams that won field position by 10+ yards are 23-1 SU in those games, the only loss Atlanta’s 40-39 debacle in Dallas.

10) Dak Prescott is the first NFL player ever to throw 200+ passes in the first four games of a season- he’s thrown 201. Previous record holder was Drew Brees in 2012 (191).

9) There is a very funny TV commercial that Dr Pepper runs during college football games; people are watching a game on TV outdoors on a patio, kicker comes in to kick the winning field goal, and a guy says how the kicker is doing great and “can’t miss” so of course, he misses.

Next thing, you see the guy in the back of a police car, arrested for jinxing the home team, with Brian Bosworth the arresting officer. Good stuff.

8) Kansas City Chiefs are rolling at 4-0, but they’ve missed a PAT in three straight games; when the weather gets colder and the playoffs get closer, that needs to be cleaned up.

7) Get well soon to Bobby Bowden, 90; the great football coach at Florida State tested positive for COVID after he had an infection in his leg. Get well soon, coach.

6) Lakers’ guard Alex Caruso skipped his sister’s wedding so he could stay in the NBA bubble and keep playing for the Lakers. Hopefully he upgraded the gift he gave to her.

5) Lakers 102, Miami 96 (LA leads 3-1):
— Heat’s bench shot a combined 4-18 from the floor.
— Miami was +11 in the 6:00 Anthony Davis didn’t play.

4) Atlanta 9, Miami 5: (Braves lead 1-0)
— Braves scored six times in the bottom of the 7th.
— d’Arnaud went 3-3, knocked in four runs.
— Marlins made 174 roster moves during this chaotic, 60-game season.

3) Los Angeles 5, San Diego 1 (LA leads 1-0)
— Dodgers didn’t get a hit until the sixth inning.
— San Diego manager Tingler was tossed in 6th inning for voicing his complaints about the umpire’s strike zone.

2) Houston 5, A’s 2 (Astros lead 2-0)
— Springer hit two homers, knocked in three runs.
— Oakland hit two homers, didn’t get anyone else in scoring position.

1) Tampa Bay 7, New York 5 (series 1-1)
— Rays hit four home runs, evened the series.
— Glasnow struck out 10 guys in five innings, got the win.
— Stanton hit two homers for New York.

**Udog** · 10-07-2020, 09:01 AM

MLB public betting, line movement for October 7
Patrick Everson

Randy Arozarena and the Rays meet the Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday night. Caesars sportsbooks opened New York a -122 favorite, with Tampa Bay a +112 underdog.

MLB betting odds are on the board for Wednesday’s schedule, with all eight contestants on the field in the ALDS and NLDS. The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees are knotted up heading to Game 3, while the defending AL champion Houston Astros go for a sweep of the Oakland Athletics.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s games.

MLB line movement

Tampa Bay bounced back from a 9-3 drubbing in Game 1 to beat New York 7-5 Tuesday and tie the best-of-five ALDS at a game apiece. Game 3, with a 7:10 p.m. ET start, opened at Yankees -122/Rays +112 late Tuesday night, with no early line movement.

Houston notched a 5-2 victory Tuesday to take a 2-0 series lead and can eliminate Oakland in a 3:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Caesars books opened Game 3 at Astros -115/A’s +105 and made the smallest possible move Tuesday night, to -116/+106.

The Los Angeles Dodgers send ace Clayton Kershaw out for Game 2 of their NLDS against the San Diego Padres. In Game 1 Tuesday, the Dodgers broke a 1-1 tie with four runs in the sixth inning and made those runs stand up in a 5-1 victory. With that game ending late, most sportsbooks didn’t post the Game 2 line Tuesday night, so check back for updates on this 9:08 p.m. ET contest.

The baseball day begins at 2:08 p.m. ET, with Game 2 of the Miami Marlins-Atlanta Braves NLDS. In Game 1, Atlanta exploded for six runs in the seventh inning en route to a 9-5 victory. The Braves opened -200 at Caesars for Game 2, with Miami +180, and there was no movement Tuesday night.

MLB public betting

The Consensus is often indicative of public opinion, and in a limited sample late Monday night, the Yankees were getting 80 percent of early picks for Game 3 against the Rays. The Astros were landing 69 percent of early Consensus picks against the A’s, and the Braves were drawing 61 percent of early picks against the Marlins.

**Udog** · 10-07-2020, 09:03 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Wednesday, October 7

**Udog** · 10-07-2020, 09:10 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 7

Miami @ Atlanta

Game 917-918
October 7, 2020 @ 2:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Lopez) 17.262
Atlanta
(Anderson) 16.195
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-200
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+170); Over

Oakland @ Houston

Game 915-916
October 7, 2020 @ 3:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Luzardo) 16.438
Houston
(Urquidy) 14.932
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-125
9
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+105); Under

Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees

Game 913-914
October 7, 2020 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 17.977
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 16.170
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-125
9
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+105); Over

San Diego @ LA Dodgers

Game 911-912
October 6, 2020 @ 9:38 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Clevinger) 15.839
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 18.250
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-155
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-155); Under

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 7

Best-of-5 series

Miami vs Atlanta (1-0) (@ Houston)
Lopez is 3-0, 1.56 in his last three starts; he is 2-1, 5.52 vs Atlanta this year.
— Marlins are 6-5 in his starts, 3-3 away from home.
— Over is 6-4-1 in his starts this year.
— This will be his first playoff appearance.
— Lopez is 2-4, 4.43 in eight career starts vs Atlanta.

— Marlins won five of their last seven games.
— Miami is in the playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Marlins are 20-15 away from home this season.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

Anderson is 4-2, 2.35 in his first seven MLB starts.
— Braves are 4-3 in his starts, 2-1 away from home.
— Under is 4-1-2 in his starts this year.
— He threw six shutout innings against the Reds in LW’s playoff series.
— Anderson is 0-1, 4.15 in two career starts vs Miami.

— Braves won eight of their last 11 games.
— Atlanta is in the playoffs for third year in a row.
— Braves are 17-14 away from home.
— Over is 6-3 in Atlanta’s last eight games.

— Braves are 7-4 against Miami this season.

Houston (1-0) vs Oakland (@ Los Angeles)
Urquidy is 1-1, 2.65 in six starts this season.
— Astros are 3-3 in his starts, 1-3 on the road.
— Under is 4-1-1 in his starts
— Urquidy is 1-0, 1.26 in five playoff games (2 starts)
— He is 0-1, 2.45 in two career starts vs Oakland.

— Houston won their first four playoff games.
— Astros are in the playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the ’17 World Series.
— Houston is 13-23 on the road this season, but won four in row on road.
— Under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games.

Luzardo is 1-1, 3.86 in his last four starts.
— Oakland is 6-4 in his starts, 1-2 on the road.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— He allowed three runs in 3.1 IP in his first postseason start, in LY’s Wild Card game vs Chicago
— Luzardo is 1-0, 2.84 in two career starts vs Houston.

— A’s are 2-3 in the playoffs; need a win here to keep the season going.
— Oakland is in playoffs for 3rd year in row, 6th time in nine years.
— A’s are 14-16 on the road this season.
— Over is 5-2-1 in their last seven games.

— A’s are 7-5 vs Houston this season, 0-2 this week.

New York (1-1) vs Tampa Bay (@ San Diego)
Tanaka is 2-2, 6.75 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 4.80 in three starts vs Tampa.
— New York is 6-5 in his starts, 1-4 on the road.
— Over is 4-0 in his last four starts.
— He is 5-3, 2.70 in nine postseason starts.
— Tanaka is 11-5, 3.31 in 21 career starts vs Tampa Bay.

— New York scored 36 runs in their first four playoff games.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 14-19 on the road this season.
— Over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

Morton is 2-1, 5.03 in his last four starts, 0-0, 2.25 in two starts vs NY.
— Rays are 5-4 in his starts, 2-2 on the road.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 4-2, 3.70 in nine career playoff games (8 starts).
— He is 4-3, 3.83 in ten career starts vs New York.

— Tampa Bay won seven of its last eight games overall.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 21-12 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-5 in their last 13 games.

— Tampa Bay won nine of 12 games with New York this season.

San Diego vs Los Angeles (1-0) (@ Arlington)
Davies is 0-2, 5.29 in his last four starts; he was 0-2, 3.46 vs LA this season.
— Padres are 9-4 in his starts, 5-2 away from home.
— Under is 7-6 in his starts, 3-4 on road.
— Davies allowed four runs in three IP in two playoff games (1 start).
— He is 3-3, 2.37 in eight career starts against the Dodgers.

— San Diego won five of its last seven games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 16-13 away from home.
— Over is 4-3-1 in their last eight games.

Kershaw is 2-1, 2.84 in his last four starts.
— Dodgers are 8-2 in his starts, 5-1 away from home.
— Under is 5-5 in his starts, 3-3 on the road.
— He is 21-7, 2.03 in 40 career starts vs San Diego.
— Kershaw is 10-11, 4.22 in 33 career playoff games (26 starts).

— Dodgers are 46-17 this year; they won their last seven games.
— LA is in playoffs for 8th year in a row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.
— Los Angeles is 23-8 away from home.
— Under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games.

— Dodgers are 7-4 vs San Diego this season.

MLB

Wednesday, October 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami @ Atlanta
Miami
Miami is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Miami's last 18 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami

Oakland @ Houston
Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Houston
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland

Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
NY Yankees is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home

San Diego @ LA Dodgers
San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-07-2020, 09:51 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (43 - 21) vs. NY YANKEES (36 - 28) - 7:10 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. MASAHIRO TANAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 43-21 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 33-13 (+16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 144-85 (+38.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 16-5 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NY YANKEES are 9-13 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
NY YANKEES are 43-43 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 10-18 (-15.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 9-3 (+7.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MORTON is 5-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.32 and a WHIP of 1.210.
His team's record is 7-5 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-4. (+3.8 units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
TANAKA is 11-5 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 0.921.
His team's record is 14-7 (+6.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-10. (+0.4 units)

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OAKLAND (38 - 27) vs. HOUSTON (33 - 31) - 3:35 PM
JESUS LUZARDO (L) vs. JOSE URQUIDY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 134-92 (+24.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 153-116 (+26.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 93-58 (+36.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 51-36 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 55-42 (-16.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-20 (-22.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 7-15 (-11.5 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 7-5 (+1.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.4 Units)

JESUS LUZARDO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
LUZARDO is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 0.947.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

JOSE URQUIDY vs. OAKLAND since 1997
URQUIDY is 0-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.45 and a WHIP of 0.636.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

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MIAMI (33 - 30) vs. ATLANTA (38 - 25) - 2:08 PM
PABLO LOPEZ (R) vs. IAN ANDERSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 137-93 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 120-72 (+38.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 13-3 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ATLANTA is 176-121 (+42.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 60-41 (+18.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 33-30 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 21-20 (+8.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MIAMI is 26-17 (+18.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MIAMI is 9-5 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 7-4 (+0.9 Units) against MIAMI this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

PABLO LOPEZ vs. ATLANTA since 1997
LOPEZ is 2-4 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.352.
His team's record is 2-6 (-3.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)

IAN ANDERSON vs. MIAMI since 1997
ANDERSON is 0-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 1.04 and a WHIP of 1.499.
His team's record is 0-2 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (39 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (46 - 17) - 9:08 PM
ZACH DAVIES (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 7-4 (+0.8 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

ZACH DAVIES vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
DAVIES is 3-3 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.37 and a WHIP of 1.054.
His team's record is 3-5 (-0.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-7. (-7.1 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
KERSHAW is 21-7 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.03 and a WHIP of 0.977.
His team's record is 30-10 (+10.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 23-17. (+5.2 units)

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**Udog** · 10-07-2020, 10:36 AM

913TAMPA BAY -914 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 66-55 SU (5.5 Units) when the money line is -100 to -150 in the last 3 seasons.

915OAKLAND -916 HOUSTON
OAKLAND is 3-11 SU (-10.3 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

917MIAMI -918 ATLANTA
MIAMI is 22-8 SU (11.6 Units) in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

919SAN DIEGO -920 LA DODGERS
SAN DIEGO is 10-22 SU (-14.2 Units) in road games after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the last 3 seasons.

Announcement

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/7

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/7

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