Announcement

**Udog** · 10-05-2020, 08:31 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

NFL leaders in rushing yardage:
424— Dalvin Cook, Minn
335— Nick Chubb, Clev
319— Derrick Henry, Tenn
315— Joe Mixon, Cin
303— Aaron Jones, GB
300— Josh Jacobs, LV

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 208,025
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

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Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a football Sunday

Notes:
— New England-Kansas City game will be Monday at 7pm on CBS; Atlanta-Green Bay game moves back to 8:50pm, on ESPN.
— Sunday, there were 13 touchdowns scored before the first FG was kicked, which is unusual.

Saints 35, Detroit 29:
— Brees threw an INT on the Saints’ 1st play of the game; the next five times they had the ball: 46 plays, 359 yards, 35 points.
— New Orleans has been outscored 72-44 in 2nd half of games.
— Saints are 13-4 ATS in last 17 games as a road favorite.

— Detroit led 14-0 after 4:37 of this game.
— Lions are 10-25-1 under Matt Patricia; their last coach was 36-28, and he got fired.
— Detroit is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games as a home underdog.

Carolina 31, Cardinals 21:
— Murray ran ball for 78 yards, but threw for only 133 yards— Hopkins caught 7 balls, for only 41 yards.
— Arizona was outgained 444-262; Redbirds converted only 3-9 third down plays.
— Cardinals are 3-5ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.

— Carolina’s first four drives: 34 plays, 222 yards, 16 first downs, 21 points.
— Panthers won their last five games with Arizona.
— Carolina is 6-3-1 ATS in last ten games as a home underdog.

Cincinnati 33, Jaguars 25:
— Jaguars lost last three games, allowing 33-31-33 points.
— Jacksonville is 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— AFC South teams are 3-7 ATS outside their division, 1-5 on road.

— Bengals scored 30-23-33 points in their last three games.
— Cincy has only six plays of 20+ yards in its three games.
— AFC North teams are 8-2-1 ATS outside their division.

Browns 49, Dallas 38:
— On their first seven drives, Browns scored five TD’s, kicked a FG.
— Cleveland won its last three games, scoring 35-34-49 points, first time they’ve scored 30+ points three games in a row since they became a franchise in 1999.
— Browns ran ball for 307 yards, are averaging 207 ypg on ground this season.

— Dallas lost three of first four games; despite scoring 109 points in their last three games.
— Cowboys turned ball over nine times (-8) in last three games- they lost field position by 17-14-9 yards in those games.
— NFC East teams are 2-11-1 ATS outside their division, 0-5 if favored.

Vikings 31, Houston 23:
— Minnesota averaged 9.9 yards/pass attempt, had six plays of 20+ yards.
— Dalvin Cook ran 27 times for 130 yards, two TD’s.
— Minnesota won its last five games with the Texans.

— Houston lost its first four games, giving up 29 ppg.
— Texans’ first three drives: 12 plays, 16 yards, three punts.
— Houston has been outscored 55-36 in the 2nd half of games.

Seahawks 31, Miami 23
— Seattle won all four games, but they’ve given up 27.3 ppg (over 4-0).
— Seahawks have 19 touchdowns on 42 drives; they’re +5 in turnovers.
— Seattle is 7-1-4 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite.
— Seahawks won field position all four games, by 6-13-14-9 yards.

— Miami scored six times, but only one of those was a touchdown.
— Seattle wasn’t called for a penalty the whole game.
— Miami is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games vs NFC teams.

Tampa Bay 38, Chargers 31:
— Herbert averaged 10.3 yards/pass attempt, but Chargers are 0-3 in his starts.
— Chargers ran ball for only 46 yards, were outgained 484-324.
— LA’s four games were decided by total of 18 points.
— Chargers actually converted 20-38 on 3rd down in their three losses.

— Tampa Bay won its last three games, scoring 97 points (12 TD’s on 32 drives).
— Buccaneers’ last five drives: 30 plays, 285 yards, four TD’s, one FG
— Tampa Bay is 5-12-3 ATS in its last 20 games as a home favorite.

Ravens 31, Washington 17:
— Ravens are scoring 30.5 ppg in their 3-1 start this year
—Baltimore is outscoring teams 47-20 in 2nd half of games.
— Ravens are 7-0-1 ATS in last eight games as a road favorite.

— Washington lost its last three games, giving up 95 points, 462 rushing yards.
— Washington has been outscored 75-24 in the first half this season.
— Redskins have converted only 18-54 (33.3%) of third down plays.

LA Rams 17, NJ Giants 9:
— Giants lost their first four games, scoring 11.8 ppg.
— Big Blue was in red zone four times, scored only nine points.
— This year, Giants have only 28 points in ten trips to red zone.
— Giants are 12-3 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.

— Rams were held to only 240 yards, but Goff hit a 55-yard TD pass to Kupp on a 3rd down play with 6:56 left, when things were getting dicey.
— LA has outscored opponents 59-23 in second half of games.
— Rams have converted 27-52 third down plays this season.

Colts 19, Chicago 11
— Indy won its last three games, allowing total of 29 points.
— Colts drove 53 yards for a TD on its first drive, didn’t score another TD all day.
— Colts have allowed only 11 plays of 20+ yards in four games.

— Indianapolis had an 11-yard edge in field position.
— Chicago threw the ball 42 times, ran ball 16 times for 28 yards.
— Bears trailed three of their four games at halftime.

Bills 30, Las Vegas 23
— Bills were +2 in turnovers, won field position by 14 yards.
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 27-31-35-30 points.
— Bills converted 50%+ of their 3rd down plays in all four games.

— Raiders scored 34-34 points in their wins, 20-23 in their losses.
— Las Vegas turned ball over five times in its last two games (-4).
— All four Raider games went over the total.

Eagles 25, San Francisco 20
— Eagles were outgained 417-267, but were +2 in turnovers.
— Philly scored TD’s 0:08 apart in the 4th quarter, one on defense.
— Eagles are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Eagles won five of last six visits to San Francisco.

— 49ers yanked QB Mullens after a 4th quarter pick-6; 3rd-stringer Beathard almost pulled off an amazing comeback.
— 49ers converted 20 of last 36 third down plays.
— SF is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite.

**Udog** · 10-05-2020, 08:34 AM

MLB public betting, line movement, sharp money for October 5
Patrick Everson

DJ LeMahieu and the Yankees face the AL East rival Rays on Monday in Game 1 of the best-of-5 American League Division Series. FanDuel sportsbook opened New York -130 and moved to -148.

MLB betting odds are back on the board after a couple of days off, with Monday’s schedule ushering in the divisional round. The ALDS takes the stage first, with the New York Yankees facing the AL East rival Tampa Bay Rays, and the Houston Astros meeting the Oakland Athletics

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s games.

MLB line movement

Fifth-seeded New York made quick work of No. 4 host Cleveland last week, winning Games 1 and 2 to advance to the ALDS. Likewise, top-seeded Tampa Bay didn’t mess around, sweeping eighth-seeded Toronto 2-0 in the best-of-three series.

For Game 1 of the best-of-five series, which will be played at San Diego’s Petco Park, FanDuel opened the Yankees -130 and moved to -148 by Sunday afternoon. The Rays are +128 for an 8:07 p.m. ET first pitch.

Defending AL champion Houston was seeded sixth, but took care of No. 3 seed Minnesota, also winning the best-of-three series 2-0 last week. No. 2 seed Oakland needed all three games to get by the No. 7 Chicago White Sox, winning Thursday’s Game 3 by a 6-4 score. FanDuel opened at A's -152/Astros +132 and moved to -142/+124 Sunday evening.

Monday's game starts at 4:07 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles.

MLB sharp money

The Yankees-Rays total moved from 7.5 to 7 at FanDuel on Sunday, with 54 percent of tickets/69 percent of money on the Under.

MLB public betting

The Yankees were a popular moneyline play at FanDuel, with 61 percent of bets and 90 percent of money on the Pinstripes, through Sunday afternoon. New York was even more popular at -1.5 on the runline, attracting 89 percent of tickets and 93 percent of money.

**Udog** · 10-05-2020, 08:36 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Monday, October 5

**Udog** · 10-05-2020, 08:43 AM

901NY YANKEES -902 TAMPA BAY
NY YANKEES are 6-14 SU (-11.5 Units) in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the current season.

903HOUSTON -904 OAKLAND
HOUSTON is 21-33 SU (-15.7 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 5

Houston @ Oakland

Game 903-904
October 5, 2020 @ 4:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCullers) 15.852
Oakland
(Bassitt) 14.217
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-145
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+125); Over

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay

Game 901-902
October 5, 2020 @ 8:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 19.011
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 17.563
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-130
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-130); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY YANKEES (35 - 27) vs. TAMPA BAY (42 - 20) - 8:07 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 8-12 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 42-20 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 30-9 (+21.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 30-14 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 32-12 (+16.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 144-84 (+39.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 15-4 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 23-10 (+15.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 (+7.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.4 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 2-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.092.
His team's record is 5-4 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-4. (-0.5 units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SNELL is 4-6 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.31 and a WHIP of 1.435.
His team's record is 9-9 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-9. (-2.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (31 - 31) vs. OAKLAND (38 - 25) - 4:07 PM
ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. JESUS LUZARDO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 31-31 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 19-21 (-11.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
GREINKE is 20-26 (-17.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 134-90 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 84-57 (+24.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 153-115 (+27.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 7-3 (+3.9 Units) against HOUSTON this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.5 Units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. OAKLAND since 1997
GREINKE is 9-3 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 1.223.
His team's record is 9-8 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-10. (-4.8 units)

JESUS LUZARDO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
LUZARDO is 1-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 0.947.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 5

Best-of-5 series American League

Houston vs Oakland (@ Los Angeles)
McCullers is 0-0, 3.57 in his last four starts; he beat the A’s 6-2 in Houston August 29, allowing two runs in six IP.
— Astros are 5-6 in his starts, 1-5 on the road.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts
— McCullers is 1-0, 2.53 in 11 career playoff games (4 starts), totaling 32 IP
— He is 5-2, 4.04 in nine career starts vs Oakland.

— Houston allowed only two runs in sweeping the Twins in Minnesota last week.
— Astros are in the playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won the ’17 World Series.
— Houston is 11-23 on the road this season- this is a neutral site.
— Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.

Bassitt is 4-0, 0.53 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 2.65 in three starts vs Houston this year.
— Oakland is 9-3 in his starts, 3-2 on the road.
— Under is 9-3 in his starts this season.
— He allowed one run in seven IP vs Chicago LW, his first postseason start.
— Bassitt is 3-2, 3.53 in nine career games (8 starts) vs Houston.

— A’s won three of their last four games.
— Oakland is in playoffs for 3rd year in row, 6th time in nine years.
— A’s are 14-14 on the road- this is a neutral site.
— Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

— A’s won seven of ten games with Houston this season.

New York vs Tampa Bay (@ San Diego)
Cole is 4-0, 1.29 in his last four starts; he is 0-1, 4.96 in three starts vs Tampa Bay this year.
— New York is 9-4 in his starts, 5-2 on the road.
— Over is 7-4-2 in his starts this season.
— Cole is 7-4, 2.60 in 11 career postseason starts.
— He is 0-3, 4.07 in seven career starts against the Rays.

— New York scored 22 runs in their sweep of the Indians in Cleveland last week.
— New York is in the playoffs for 4th year in a row.
— New York is 13-18 on the road this season.
— Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Snell is 6-0, 2.57 in his last seven starts; he is 1-1, 3.77 in three starts vs NY this season.
— Rays are 10-2 in his starts, 5-1 on the road.
— Over is 7-4-1 in his starts this season.
— Snell is 1-1, 0.82 in four career playoff games (2 starts).
— He is 4-6, 4.31 in 18 career starts vs New York.

— Tampa Bay won its last six games overall; they held Toronto to three runs in their sweep of the Blue Jays last week.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 20-11 away from home this season.
— Under is 8-3 in their last eleven games.
— Tampa Bay has couple OF’s (Renfroe, Margot) who called San Diego home last year.

— Tampa Bay won eight of ten games with New York this season.

MLB

Monday, October 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston @ Oakland
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games on the road
NY Yankees is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-05-2020, 08:48 AM

AL Divisional Series Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers

The Wild Card round is over as the 16-team field has been sliced in half to eight squads seeking a World Series title. No team will have home-field advantage the rest of the way as the four remaining series will be played at neutral sites in California and Texas.

The divisional playoff round in the American League will take place in San Diego and Los Angeles. AL East rivals Tampa Bay and New York will square off at Petco Park, while AL West foes Oakland and Houston hook up at Dodger Stadium.

#1 Tampa Bay Rays vs. #5 New York Yankees

at Petco Park, San Diego

TB: 42-20 SU, 28-31-3 O/U
NYY: 35-27 SU, 31-27-4 O/U

Series Price

Tampa Bay -110
New York -110

Series Schedule

Game 1 - Monday, Oct. 5 - 8:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 2 - Tuesday, Oct. 6 - TBD (TBS)
Game 3 - Wednesday, Oct. 7 - TBD (TBS)
Game 4 - Thursday, Oct. 8 - (If Necessary)
Game 5 - Friday, Oct. 9 - (If Necessary)

The Rays and Yankees aren't exactly the best of friends as these two division rivals are meeting in the postseason for the first time ever. Tampa Bay cruised to the AL East title for the third time in franchise history and first time since 2010. The Yankees are making their fourth straight playoff appearance as they are seeking their first World Series trip since 2009.

Tampa Bay took care of Toronto in the Wild Card round by outscoring the Blue Jays, 11-3 in a pair of wins. Former Cy Young winner Blake Snell won his first ever playoff start in a 3-1 triumph in Game 1, followed by six-run second inning breakout by the Rays in an 8-2 blowout in Game 2.

The Yankees' potent offense showed up by posting a pair of double-digit run performances in a two-game sweep of the Indians. New York rolled past Cleveland in the series opener, 12-3 behind Gerrit Cole's 13 strikeouts in seven innings. The Yankees erased an early 4-0 hole and a ninth-inning deficit to capture Game 2 by a 10-9 count behind three home runs, including a grand slam by third baseman Gio Urshela.

The Rays have advanced to the ALCS only once in franchise history, coming during their World Series run in 2008. The Yankees are seeking their third ALCS appearance in the last four seasons as they lost to the Astros the first two times (and are still alive in the other ALDS matchup).

Tampa Bay dominated the season series by taking eight of 10 meetings from New York. The Rays knocked off the Yankees five of six times in the Bronx, while Tampa Bay went 2-1 in three games against Cole, who is scheduled to start Game 1. Rays' hurler Tyler Glasnow defeated Cole and the Yankees twice, as the right-hander struck out 17 batters in the two victories.

#2 Oakland Athletics vs. #6 Houston Astros

at Dodger Stadium - Los Angeles

OAK: 38-25 SU, 28-33-2 O/U
HOU: 31-31 SU, 29-30-3 O/U

Series Price

Oakland -120
Houston +100

Series Schedule

Game 1 - Monday, Oct. 5 - 4:07 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 2 - Tuesday, Oct. 6 - TBD (TBS)
Game 3 - Wednesday, Oct. 7 - TBD (TBS)
Game 4 - Thursday, Oct. 8 - (If Necessary)
Game 5 - Friday, Oct. 9 - (If Necessary)

No matter the sign-stealing controversy, the injuries, the managerial change prior to the season - the Astros just won't go away. Houston finished the season as one of two playoff teams to own a losing record, but the Astros managed a two-game sweep of the Twins, who have amazingly lost 18 consecutive playoff contests since 2004.

The Astros are still the defending American League champions and are seeking a third World Series trip since 2017. Houston's pitching carried them past Minnesota in the Wild Card round by allowing one run in each of the two wins. Houston cashed as a road underdog in each victory, as the Astros entered the playoffs with the worst away mark of any postseason squad.

The Athletics put up a dud offensively in Game 1 against the White Sox, but Oakland rebounded with five runs in a Game 2 victory and six runs in the series-clinching triumph of Game 3. The A's rallied from a 3-0 deficit in the deciding game with a four-run fourth inning to capture a playoff series for the first time since 2006.

Oakland has had some tough luck in the Wild Card round the last few seasons, but is playing in the ALDS for the first time since 2013, when the A's fell to the Tigers in five games. The Astros have advanced past the ALDS each of the last three seasons, but needed five games to knock out the Rays in 2019.

The A's won six of 10 meetings this season from the Astros, as Houston was limited to two runs or fewer in seven of those games. As a result, seven of those matchups finished 'under' the total, while the favorite won eight of 10 times.

Announcement

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/5

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/5

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