Announcement

**Udog** · 10-01-2020, 08:58 AM

And as for the final sphere of love and friendship, I can only say it gets harder once the natural communities of college and hometown are gone...It takes work and commitment, demands toleration for human frailties, forgiveness for the inevitable disappointment and betrayals that come even with the best of relationships.

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Six interesting spreads for Week 4 college games:
— Memphis (-2.5) @ SMU
— Navy (-7) @ Air Force
— Texas Tech @ Kansas State (-2.5)
— TCU @ Texas (-11.5)
— Ole Miss @ Kentucky (-6.5)
— Auburn @ Georgia (-6.5)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 205,268
Please wear a mask when you go out.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) Sunday’s Steeler-Titans game was postponed from Sunday to either Monday or Tuesday; another Tennessee player tested positive.

Minnesota Vikings will be back in their facility Thursday; their game with Houston Sunday still appears to be a go.

12) Braves 1, Reds 0 (14) (Atlanta leads, 1-0):
— They’re not using the gimmicky man-on-2nd rule in extra innings in the playoffs.
— This was the first 0-0, extra inning playoff game since Game 6 of the 1997 ALCS between Cleveland-Baltimore.
— Freddie Freeman walked it off with a 14th-inning single.
— Cincinnati left 13 men on base, was 1-12 with RISP.

11) Pardon me for this rant, but I despise it when ESPN mikes players and talks to them while they’re in the field, 1,000 times moreso during a playoff game. Players need to concentrate; lot of the questions that are asked are mindless/inane, anyway.

If you want to talk to players, talk to them when they’re in the dugout, not on the field.

10) Astros 3, Twins 1 (Houston wins 2-0):
— Astros went 29-31 in regular season, but they advance here.
— Minnesota got only three hits; they’ve now lost 18 playoff games in a row.
— Rookie Cristian Javier tossed three scoreless innings in relief.

9) A’s 5, White Sox 3 (series 1-1):
— Oakland scored twice in first inning; Dallas Keuchel was one of only two MLB starters this season that didn’t allow a first-inning run (Dinelson Lamet was the other)
— A’s led 5-0 in 8th, then hung on for dear life. Closer Hendriks got five outs, but left with bases loaded in 9th inning- Jake Diekman retired Jose Abreu to end the game.
— Deciding Game 3 is this afternoon in Oakland.

8) One thing about social media, in this case I mean Twitter; lot of fickle people. Everyone who loses should be fired, everyone who wins is the greatest, at least until they lose again.

7) Lakers 116, Miami 98 (LA leads 1-0):
— Game was 64-48 at halftime, and got worse from there.
— LA was +18 on boards (54-36)
— Anthony Davis scored 34 points in 38:00.

6) Dodgers 4, Milwaukee 2 (LA leads 1-0)
— Milwaukee starter Suter walked five batters in 31.2 IP this year; he walked five batters in 1.2 IP here in a dismal performance. His first five batters? A double and four walks.
— In their 60 regular season games, Dodgers used 56 different lineups.

5) Tampa Bay 8, Toronto 2:
— Rays scored six runs in 2nd inning, chasing Jays’ ace Hyun-Jin Ryu
— Hunter Renfroe hit a grand slam for Tampa Bay.
— Rays advance to play division rival New York in next round.

4) St Louis 7, San Diego 4 (Cardinals lead 1-0)
— Padres are in a tough spot, with their #1-2 starters both injured.
— Cardinals scored four runs in 1st, led 6-3 after three innings.
— Rookie Dylan Carlson batted cleanup, got on base four times, scored twice.

3) Congrats to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who earlier this week won the Stanley Cup for the second time. Congrats to the NHL for executing their playoffs in two bubbles (Toronto/Edmonton) and doing it safely.

2) I really dislike the NFL’s 10:00 overtime rule: the team that kicks off is only going to get the ball once. Why not let teams play a full quarter? If you’re only going to play a 10:00 OT, why have overtime at all and have more tie games?

1) New York 10, Cleveland 9 (New York wins series 2-0)
— Indians scored four runs in 1st, then trailed 6-4/8-6, led 9-8.
— New York scored twice in ninth inning for the win.
— Cleveland pitchers issued 12 walks; hard to win that way.
— New York advances to face Tampa Bay in the next round.

**Udog** · 10-01-2020, 09:01 AM

MLB public betting, line movement for October 1
Patrick Everson

Javier Baez and the Cubs are in a must-win situation for Thursday's Game 2 of their best-of-3 series against the Marlins. Caesars pegged host Chicago a -185 favorite, with Miami +170.

MLB betting odds are up for a slimmed-down Thursday wild-card playoffs schedule of five games, after three teams advanced to the divisional round with Wednesday wins. The Chicago Cubs are in an elimination game against the Miami Marlins, while Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers aim to quickly finish off the Milwaukee Brewers.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s games.

MLB line movement

Chicago stubbed its toe in a 5-1 Game 1 loss to Miami, and the host Cubs now must win Game 2, with first pitch at 2:08 p.m. ET. Caesars books opened Yu Darvish and Chicago at -185, with Miami +170, and there was no line movement through Wednesday night.

Kershaw looks to lead the Dodgers into the divisional round in Game 2 against the Brewers, after L.A. posted a 4-2 victory in Game 1. Most books didn’t post the Game 2 line Wednesday night, so check back Thursday for this 10:08 p.m. ET contest.

Oakland notched a 5-3 Game 2 victory over Chicago Wednesday to force Game 3 at 3:10 p.m. ET. Neither team set its starting pitcher for the clincher, so sportsbooks held off on posting the opening line Wednesday night.

MLB public betting

The Consensus, often indicative of the public’s stance, had the Cubs landing 77 percent of picks against the Marlins through Wednesday night. The San Diego Padres, also facing elimination, were drawing 63 percent of early Consensus picks for Game 2 against the St. Louis Cardinals. First pitch is at 5:08 p.m. ET.

In Thursday’s opener, at 12:08 p.m. ET, 64 percent of Consensus picks were on the host Atlanta Braves against the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves outlasted the Reds 1-0 in 13 innings in Wednesday’s Game 1.

**Udog** · 10-01-2020, 09:05 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, October 1

**Udog** · 10-01-2020, 09:12 AM

955MILWAUKEE -956 LA DODGERS
MILWAUKEE is 19-32 SU (-14.9 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

957CINCINNATI -958 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 10-3 SU (6.7 Units) in day games in the current season.

963CHI WHITE SOX -964 OAKLAND
CHI WHITE SOX is 21-6 SU (15.8 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

967ST LOUIS -968 SAN DIEGO
ST LOUIS are 21-26 SU (-16.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

981MIAMI -982 CHICAGO CUBS
MIAMI is 13-2 SU (10.6 Units) in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 1

Best-of-3 series

American League
White Sox @ A’s (series 1-1)
Cease is 1-1, 4.58 in his last four starts; he is 3-3, 5.67 in seven road starts.
— White Sox are 6-5 in his starts, 3-4 on the road.
— Over is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
— Cease has never faced Oakland, or pitched in the playoffs.

— Chicago is in playoffs for first time since 2008.
— White Sox is 2-7 in its last nine road games.
— Chicago lost nine of its last 11 games overall.
— Five of last six White Sox games went over the total.

Fiers is 2-2, 4.09 in his last four starts; he is 2-1, 4.15 in four home starts.
— Oakland is 8-3 in his starts, 3-1 at home.
— Five of his last six starts stayed under.
— Fiers allowed one run in one IP in his only playoff appearance, in 2015 for Houston.
— He is 4-0, 1.58 in eight career starts vs Chicago.

A’s could start Manaea here, but Chicago is 15-0 vs lefty starters, so if they start Manaea, I may have a nervous breakdown and you’ll never see me again ��

— Closer Hendriks threw 49 pitches, is likely out for this game.
— Oakland lost six of its last ten games overall; their best player, 3B Chapman is out for the year.
— A’s are 23-11 at home this season.
— Oakland scored 20 runs total in its last seven games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
— A’s are in playoffs for third year in a row- they haven’t advanced in playoffs since 2006.

National League
Cincinnati @ Atlanta (1-0)
Castillo is 3-0, 1.23 in his last three starts; he is 2-4, 4.33 on the road.
— Reds are 4-6 in his starts, 2-4 on foreign soil.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Castillo is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts vs Atlanta.
— This is his first career playoff start.

— Reds are 11-4 in their last fifteen games.
— Reds left 13 men on base yesterday, went 1-12 with RISP.
— Cincy is in playoffs for first time since 2013.
— Reds are 15-17 on the road this year, going 5-4 in last nine road tilts.
— Over is 4-3-1 in their last eight games.

Rookie Anderson is 3-2, 2.78 in his first six MLB starts.
— Braves are 3-3 in his starts, 1-2 at home.
— Under is 3-1-2 in his six starts.
— He’s never faced the Reds, or pitched in the playoffs.

— Braves went 8-6 in last 14 games, splitting last six.
— Braves left nine men on base yesterday, were 1-10 with RISP.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Atlanta is 20-11 at home this season.
— Five of their last seven games went over the total.

Miami (1-0) @ Chicago
Rookie Sanchez is 3-2, 3.46 in his first seven MLB starts.
— Marlins are 3-4 in his starts, 2-1 on the road.
— Under is 5-2 in his starts.
— He’s never faced Chicago; this is his first playoff appearance.

— Miami is 9-8 in its last 17 games, winning four of last five.
— Marlins are in playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Miami is 21-14 on the road (11-15 at home).
— Over is 8-5 in their last thirteen games.

Darvish is 0-2, 4.74 in his last three starts; he is 5-3, 2.73 in nine home starts.
— Cubs are 8-3 in his starts, 6-3 at home.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Darvish is 2-4, 5.81 in six playoff starts.
— He is 2-1, 6.06 in five career starts vs Miami.

— Chicago had only four hits in yesterday’s 5-1 loss.
— Cubs lost seven of their last ten games overall.
— Chicago is 19-15 at home this season.
— Cubs are in playoffs for fifth time in six years; they won World Series in 2016.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.

St Louis (1-0) @ San Diego
Wainwright is 2-2, 3.60 in his last four starts; he is 3-1, 3.00 on the road.
— St Louis is 6-3 in his starts, 3-1 on the road.
— Over is 3-3-3 in his starts this year.
— Wainwright is 7-4, 2.19 in 15 games (12 starts) vs San Diego.
— He is 4-5, 2.81 in 27 career playoff games (14 starts).

— Cardinals are 9-4 in they roast thirteen games.
— St Louis is in playoffs for 8th time in 12 years, 2nd time in last five.
— Cardinals are 17-15 on the road this season.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Davies is 2-2, 3.24 in his last four starts; he is 3-2, 3.13 at home.
— San Diego is 7-4 in his starts, 3-2 at home.
— Davies’ last four starts stayed under the total.
— He is 2-3, 4.55 in 10 starts vs St Louis.
— Davies threw one scoreless inning for Milwaukee in ’18 playoffs.

— San Diego lost yesterday; they’re 13-7 in their last 20 games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 27-13 vs right-handed starters.
— Under is 5-4-1 in their last ten games.

Milwaukee @ Los Angeles (1-0)
Woodruff is 1-1, 1.32 in his last two starts.
— Milwaukee is 6-7 in his starts, 3-3 at home.
— Under is 10-2-1 in his starts this year.
— Woodruff has allowed eight runs in 9.2 IP in two games (1 start) vs LA.
— He is 1-1, 1.65 in five playoff games (2 starts).

— Milwaukee is 3-6 in its last nine games.
— Brewers are 14-18 on the road this season.
— Milwaukee is in playoffs for third year in a row.
— Over is 12-5 in their last 17 games.

Kershaw is 4-1, 2.35 in his last six starts; he is 1-1, 3.48 at home.
— Dodgers are 6-2 in his starts, 1-1 at home.
— Over is 4-4 in his starts this year.
— Kershaw is 9-11, 4.43 in 32 playoff games (25 starts)
— He is 6-5, 2.87 in 15 starts vs Milwaukee.

— Dodgers are 44-17 this year, winning their last five games.
— LA is 22-9 in Chavez Ravine this season.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for 8th year in a row; their last World Series title was 1988.
— Three of their last five games went over.

MLB

Thursday, October 1

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Trend Report
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Cincinnati @ Atlanta
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

Miami @ Chi Cubs
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Chi Cubs is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Miami

Chi White Sox @ Oakland
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games
Oakland
Oakland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox

St. Louis @ San Diego
St. Louis
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 10 games
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home

Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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**Udog** · 10-01-2020, 11:51 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 2

Cincinnati @ Atlanta

Game 957-958
October 1, 2020 @ 12:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Castillo) 16.058
Atlanta
(Anderson) 17.593
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-135
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-135); Over

Miami @ Chicago Cubs

Game 969-970
October 1, 2020 @ 2:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Sanchez) 15.203
Chicago Cubs
(Darvish) 16.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-180
7
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-180); Under

Chicago White Sox @ Oakland

Game 963-964
October 1, 2020 @ 3:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Dunning) 13.655
Oakland
(Fiers) 15.147
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago White Sox
-115
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-105); Under

St. Louis @ San Diego

Game 967-968
October 1, 2020 @ 7:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Wainwrght) 16.420
San Diego
(Davies) 15.092
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-160
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+140); Over

Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers

Game 955-956
October 1, 2020 @ 10:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Woodruff) 13.911
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 18.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 4
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-220
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-220); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 2

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MILWAUKEE (29 - 31) at LA DODGERS (43 - 17) - 10:08 PM
BRANDON WOODRUFF (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

BRANDON WOODRUFF vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
WOODRUFF is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.94 and a WHIP of 1.764.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-6 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.02 and a WHIP of 1.044.
His team's record is 10-7 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-8. (-1.8 units)

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CINCINNATI (31 - 29) at ATLANTA (35 - 25) - 12:08 PM
LUIS CASTILLO (R) vs. IAN ANDERSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 106-117 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 21-36 (-14.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 30-48 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CASTILLO is 5-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 135-93 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 41-18 (+13.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 67-43 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 174-121 (+40.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 48-62 (-31.6 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 34-47 (-25.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

LUIS CASTILLO vs. ATLANTA since 1997
CASTILLO is 1-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

IAN ANDERSON vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

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CHI WHITE SOX (36 - 25) at OAKLAND (36 - 25) - 3:10 PM
DANE DUNNING (R) vs. SEAN MANAEA (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)

DANE DUNNING vs. OAKLAND since 1997
No recent starts.

SEAN MANAEA vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
MANAEA is 1-0 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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ST LOUIS (30 - 28) at SAN DIEGO (37 - 23) - 5:08 PM
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. ZACH DAVIES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 9-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 15-6 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
WAINWRIGHT is 213-127 (+47.2 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 70-37 (+21.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 102-62 (+33.6 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 12-4 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 107-116 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 86-105 (-31.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 40-57 (-23.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 39-45 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 52-64 (-16.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 (+1.5 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 7-4 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.03 and a WHIP of 1.092.
His team's record is 8-4 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.0 units)

ZACH DAVIES vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
DAVIES is 2-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.326.
His team's record is 5-5 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-5. (-0.4 units)

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MIAMI (31 - 29) at CHICAGO CUBS (34 - 26) - 2:08 PM
SIXTO SANCHEZ (R) vs. YU DARVISH (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-29 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 17-14 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MIAMI is 25-17 (+16.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1908-1937 (-279.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1025-899 (-151.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 18-28 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in home games in October games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 959-949 (-170.0 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1420-1448 (-214.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 (+1.6 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

SIXTO SANCHEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

YU DARVISH vs. MIAMI since 1997
DARVISH is 2-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 6.07 and a WHIP of 1.575.
His team's record is 4-1 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

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Announcement

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/1

Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/1

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