Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/23

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, July 23

Good Luck on day #205 of 2020!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

USC’s bowl games the last seven years:
2013– Fresno State W21-20 (-6)
2014— Nebraska W45-42 (-7)
2015— Wisconsin L21-23 (-3)
2016— Penn State W52-49 (-7)
2017— Ohio State L7-24 (-8)
2019— Iowa L24-49 (+2)

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 141,756
Please wear a mask when you go out.


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Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……

13) One of the recurring themes in the next couple weeks will be how the 60-game season is a spring, not a marathon. People will say over and over how last year’s champs, the Washington Nationals, were a feeble 19-31 after fifty games.

If a team goes 37-23 this year, that’s the numerical equivalent of going 100-62.

12) Over last four years, %age of games that went to extra innings:
2016: 7.62%
2017: 7.45%
2018: 8.89%
2019: 8.56%

4-year average works out to 8.19%, or basically one game per day.

11) David Cone was a really good pitcher; he went 194-126 in his 17-year career playing for five teams. Now he is a very good TV analyst; smart, funny, says what he thinks.

Unusual thing about Cone is that he wore seven different numbers in his major league career; that’s unusual for a star player. He also wore #17 for two teams (Mets/Royals), #36 for two teams (Bronx/Boston).

10) Giants’ manager Gabe Kapler made the last out of Dallas Braden’s perfect game for the A’s back in 2010.

9) Stat guy Mark Simon posted this piece of knowledge:

Since the start of 2016, 213 pitchers have pitched at least 250 innings; Tommy Milone’s 5.67 ERA ranks 208th of those 213 pitchers.

Milone is the Orioles’ Opening Day starter; no bueno.

8) Padres’ TV guy Don Orsillo, who is great at his job, was laughing last night about how the Padres haven’t played a regular season game in Anaheim since 2015, which is nonsensical, seeing how they pass Anaheim Stadium every time they drive from San Diego to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers.

I’d be in favor of total geographic realignment in baseball; think it would promote rivalries and increase attendance, once fans are allowed to go to games again.

7) They played the first-ever game in Globe Life Field in Arlington Tuesday; Daniel Murphy hit the stadium’s first-ever home run. They have an artificial surface instead of grass there.

6) Texas Rangers’ 2B Rougned Odor had a weird season last year:
— His OPS with the bases empty: .621, which is terrible
— His OPS with men in scoring position: 1.042, which is very excellent.

Thats how you knock in 93 runs, despite hitting .205.

5) 22-year old Mike Soroka is the Braves’ Opening Day starter; he’ll be the youngest guy to pitch on Opening Day since Jose Fernandez in 2014.

4) Bad beat in the KBO Tuesday morning: LG Twins were beating the KT Wiz 8-1 in the middle of the 7th- they take starting pitcher Wilson out, and immediately give up eight runs in the 7th inning, using five relievers, the first three of whom didn’t record an out.

Wiz walked the game off 10-9, big win for them.

3) One of the quirky things about baseball this season will be players spread out in the stands behind each dugout, social distancing instead of being in the dugout. They’ve put tents up to keep sun/rain off the players.

2) Dodgers signed Mookie Betts to a 12-year, $365M contract; Betts would’ve been a free agent after this season.

1) Governor of Pennsylvania put the kibosh on the Toronto Blue Jays playing home games at PNC Park in Pittsburgh this season. Season starts today, and still no idea where the Blue Jays will call home. Buffalo is apparently the last resort.

[Udog]

901NY YANKEES -902 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 36-9 SU (26.1 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.




MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, July 23

NY Yankees @ Washington

Game 901-902
July 23, 2020 @ 7:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 16.246
Washington
(Scherzer) 19.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-135
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+115); Under

San Francisco @ LA Dodgers

Game 903-904
July 23, 2020 @ 10:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Cueto) 13.889
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 17.828
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 4
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-290
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-290); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, July 23

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NY YANKEES (0 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 0) - 7:08 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLE is 30-9 (+17.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 15-22 (-24.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

GERRIT COLE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
COLE is 4-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.078.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.7 units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SCHERZER is 6-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.352.
His team's record is 6-3 (+4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-6. (-3.6 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 0) at LA DODGERS (0 - 0) - 10:08 PM
JOHNNY CUETO (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 42-39 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-10 (+13.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-6 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in July games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-16 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 52-48 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 986-837 (-94.0 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JOHNNY CUETO vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
CUETO is 7-9 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.137.
His team's record is 9-11 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-10. (+0.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
KERSHAW is 23-12 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.72 and a WHIP of 0.864.
His team's record is 29-18 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 30-14. (+14.4 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 23

Not a lot to go on for the first few days; this is uncharted territory for all of us. We’ll have trends up and running after a few days.

Bronx @ Washington
Bronx (0-0):
Cole makes his debut for New York; he is 3-2, 2.92 in six starts vs Washington, 1-2, 4.41 in three starts here. Cole was 1-1, 3.86 in the World Series vs Washington LY.

Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: o-0

— Unsure if DJ LeMahieu (COVID) will be in the lineup.

Nationals (0-0):
Scherzer is 4-3, 4.04 in seven career starts vs New York.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

—

Giants @ Dodgers
Giants (0-0)
Cueto is 7-9, 3.53 in 20 starts vs LA, 4-5, 2.36 in ten starts in Chavez Ravine.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Belt, Longoria are both out for the Giants.

Dodgers (0-0):
Kershaw is 23-12, 1.74 in 47 starts against the Giants (1-2, 2.37 LY)
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

[Udog]

WHO'S OPTED OUT, BY DATE
Players with preexisting conditions deemed to be high-risk can opt out of the season and still get paid and maintain their service time. Players without that designation will forgo pay and service if they opt out.


6/297/20 Mike Leake ARI
Ryan Zimmerman WSH
Joe Ross WSH
Ian Desmond COL
Welington Castillo WSH
David Price LAD
Felix Hernandez ATL
Nick Markakis ATL
Hector Noesi PIT
Buster Posey SF
Michael Kopech CWS
Jordan Hicks STL
Collin McHugh BOS

[Udog]

2020 MLB rule changes and their impact on baseball betting
Andrew Caley

The Yankees' Gleyber Torres slashed .394/.467/1.045, with 13 homers in 75 plate appearances against the Orioles last season. They make up almost 17 percent of the Yankees’ games now.

Major League Baseball returns with an abbreviated 60-game 2020 season and a handful of new rules, and these changes will certainly impact MLB odds.

For bettors, these new MLB rule changes will affect everything from daily MLB betting lines to World Series odds for the season, beginning July 23.

So, with a bunch of uncertainty staring us in the face, we break down some stuff to focus on in this new world of MLB betting, as we prepare to dive head-first into MLB picks and predictions for the upcoming season.

What are the 2020 MLB rule changes?

Teams will play 40 division games, and 20 interleague games against the corresponding division (Ex: AL East will play NL East).
The National League will use a designated hitter.
Pitchers must face three batters or complete a half-inning before being removed from the game.
If a game goes to extra innings, teams will begin with a runner on second base.
Rosters will start at 30 for the first two weeks, then 28 for the next two and 26 for the remainder.
Teams will also have a taxi squad which will allow for up to 60 players to be available for MLB games.

How will the rule change affect the MLB odds?

Prepare for randomness with MLB Futures betting

Sixty games are nothing close to resembling a full MLB season. Sometimes it takes 60 games for hitters to get their timing down. Or a couple of months for starting pitchers to find their grooves. With a schedule this short, all it will take is one major injury or one cold streak to derail a season. For example, the World Series champion Washington Nationals were just 27-33 after 60 games last year.

Conversely, one hot start means we could wind up with an unexpected team in the postseason. The point is to use caution when betting things like World Series or division title futures, and regular-season win totals. That said, maybe give a little added value to a dark horse team you like to win a division or a live longshot for a player to lead the league in home runs. The Yankees' Gleyber Torres slashed .394/.467/1.045, with 13 homers in 75 plate appearances against the Baltimore Orioles last season. They make up almost 17 percent of the Yankees’ games now.

A Boon in NL runs?

It has been long-debated whether the National League should adopt the designated hitter, and the day is finally here. The junior circuit has generally been the higher scoring league, because, duh, they don’t have a pitcher hit. So, you can expect a small uptick in runs in the NL.

More importantly, this is going to give some roster flexibility to some teams. For example, the Chicago Cubs no longer have to worry about Kyle Schwarber having to patrol an outfield position. Additionally, it means teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds, with a ton of depth, become even more dangerous. It will be interesting to see how books evaluate these teams early on.

Bullpen Management

Two things with bullpens here. One, in this abbreviated season, teams with bullpen depth should have an edge. And two, with the three-batter minimum rule in effect, managers will have to be more careful when deciding which reliever to call for each situation.

First off, just like hitters, it usually takes starters a little while to get a feel for all their pitches. So, in this 60-game sprint, there is going to be a premium on teams with good bullpens. The top five MLB teams in terms of ERA last season were:

Tampa Bay Rays
Houston Astros
Cleveland Indians
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers

Other teams who should have excellent bullpens heading into 2020 are the Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres and New York Yankees. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rays and Brewers only use starters for half their games.

And secondly, the bullpen management. Sorry Joe Girardi, the one-and-done specialist is gone. Girardi was notorious in New York for his many pitching changes, but managers will have to look much more closely at matchups now. And relievers who get thrown into jams will have to get out of them on their own. Which again, can lead to more runs being scored. Girardi is now in Philly but he’s not alone. Guys like the Rays' Kevin Cash, Joe Maddon - now with the Angels - and the Dodgers' Dave Roberts all love tinkering with their relievers (some to better ends than the others).

A Return to Small Ball

The extra-inning tweak is going to change games that need them quite a bit, and you are going to see far fewer walk-off homers. Bunting has kind of gone the way of the dodo in baseball, but you’ll see a return in 2020. The smart baseball play is to advance that runner on second to third with a bunt. Then all you need is a ball in play. You will see lots of run-on-contact plays, and tagging up on sacrifice flys. Imagine if you’re a team like the Atlanta Braves, and will have a guy like Billy Hamilton on the bench most games. He comes in to pinch run, steals third, and the chances of scoring that run are very high. So keep an eye on teams with speedsters coming off the bench.

So what does it all mean for MLB betting?

To wrap it up, teams with strong bullpens and good bullpen management should have an advantage in daily moneyline wagers early on. But once the players get warmed up, teams with strong starting rotations should excel. Try to find some early-season value in National League totals. And use caution when wagering futures, while maybe taking a look at some live long shots who have a little more value in the shorted season.

[BettorsChat]

Where's stardustbum?

[Udog]

MLB
Weather Report

Thursday, July 23

[Udog]

Where's stardustbum?

I haven't talked with him in several days. I don't know what he's planning. I know he's kinda looking at these abbreviated seasons as sort of a waste of time. He may be holding out for pro football. I just don't know.

I'm really glad we have some baseball tomorrow! NBA and NHL in a week, too. Television is going to stink a little less now.

[BettorsChat]

I haven't talked with him in several days. I don't know what he's planning. I know he's kinda looking at these abbreviated seasons as sort of a waste of time. He may be holding out for pro football. I just don't know.

I'm really glad we have some baseball tomorrow! NBA and NHL in a week, too. Television is going to stink a little less now.

Well I hope he gets back to posting!

[Udog]

MLB

Thursday, July 23

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Trend Report
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Washington Nationals
Washington is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Washington is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
Washington is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games
New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Yankees is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
NY Yankees is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games


Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of LA Dodgers's last 25 games when playing at home against San Francisco
LA Dodgers is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
LA Dodgers is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
San Francisco is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of San Francisco's last 25 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers


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[Udog]

Handicapping the MLB Shortened Season
Marc Lawrence

By hook or by crook the 2020 MLB season will begin, albeit more than 4 months delayed.

Due to the pandemic, the 2020 MLB campaign will be shortened to a 60-game season.

With, here it, here is an illuminating report on how each MLB team has fared over the past three regular seasons in 60-game spans, both to start the season and to conclude the year.

American League Teams
Quick Starters

The Good

Houston Astros
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox

The Bad

Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles
Detroit Tigers



National League Teams
Quick Starters

The Good

Los Angeles Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers

The Bad

Miami Marlins
Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres



American League Teams
Solid Finishers

The Good

Cleveland Indians
Houston Astros
Oakland Athletics

The Bad

Detroit Tigers
Baltimore Orioles
Kansas City Royals



National League Teams
Solid Finishers

The Good

Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Washington Nationals

The Bad

Miami Marlins
San Francisco Giants
Cincinnati Reds



Note: A handful of teams saw their season conclude with only 161 games played. In those cases these teams are represented with results played over the span of the final 59 games played.

So the question begs – will teams approach this year’s 60-game season as if it’s the first 60 games on the schedule, or the final 60 games? That is the big question. My thought is more the latter, with the reward being a ticket to the postseason being just around the corner for teams fortunate enough to qualify.

If your'e looking for the largest differences from the first 60 to the final 60 games, then keep an eye on the below.

American League
Net Difference
Last 3 years

The Good

Cleveland +40 (+6 to +46)
Tampa Bay +20 (+8 to +28)

The Bad

Detroit -47 (-20 to -67)
Oakland -42 (+36 to -6)
L.A. Angeles -20 (0 to -20)

National League
Net Difference
Last 3 Years

The Good

St. Louis +36 (-4 to +32)
New York Mets +26 (-16 to +10)
Colorado +20 (-2 to +18)
Arizona +19 (+8 to +27)
Philadelphia +18 (-26 to -8)

The Bad

San Francisco -44 (+6 to -38)

Remember, by tuning into MLB Tonight every night, baseball fans will be brought up to speed on the status on the shortened 60-game season. With such a condensed season it is required viewing for serious fans.

Okay, let’s play ball!

[Udog]

Baseball Tonight, on ESPN, is back and starts Friday afternoon at 3:00 eastern.

[Udog]

[Udog]

Fox Saturday Baseball Schedule Through September

The season kicks off with a triple header on Saturday, July 25th with games at 1pm, 4pm, and 7pm ET. The 25th season of FOX Saturday Baseball will continue with ten additional Saturday and Thursday windows throughout August and September.