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**Udog** · 10-29-2019, 08:46 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the highest-paid college basketball coaches:

— Mike Krzyzewski, Duke $8.98M/year

— John Calipari, Kentucky $8.04M

— Mick Cronin, UCLA $5.5M

— Rick Barnes, Tennessee $4.7M

— Bill Self, Kansas $4.48M

— Chris Beard, Texas Tech $4.2M

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Glad to be back……

13) Here is a pro tip if you’re having surgery; go to the right bleepin’ hospital.

Thats right, I show up 20 minutes early for my operation last Tuesday, but turns out I’m at Albany Medical Center when I’m supposed to be at Albany Memorial Hospital, which according to Mapquest, is 2.6 miles away. Not good, but we got there and the staff at Memorial couldn’t have been nicer.

12) Backtracking a little bit, couple of Saturdays ago I’m sitting in the sportsbook at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, watching college football and talking with a buddy, when the vision in my right eye became foggy. Had no idea what the problem was, but it didn’t get better, and after flying home that Tuesday, it got way worse. Turns out the retina in my right eye had detached.

On October 22 (the 47th anniversary of the Oakland A’s first World Series title), I had my right eye operated on, and now I wait and hope it bounces back to where it was. In the meantime, I’d like to thank anyone who sent a text, e-mail or called to offer help/best wishes. Much appreciated.

— Thanks to Dr Mallick, who was my eye surgeon; appreciate you answering all my questions, and obviously, thanks a lot for putting my eye back together. Thanks isn’t really enough to say, but I really appreciate your work.

11) Part of rehabbing your re-attached retina is having your head pointed down a lot, so I’m listening to TV more than watching it; two observations:

a) Joe Buck is very good at baseball play-by-play.
b) 86-year old Hubie Brown is still great fun to listen to on NBA games.

10) When Washington Nationals’ OF Juan Soto was 10 years old, he played on an all-star team in the Dominican Republic that was coached by Robinson Cano’s father.

9) Since the start of last season, 56.4% of NBA players have changed teams, an amazing stat. NBA is the only league where the preseason is more interesting than the regular season.

8) A friend of mine here in Albany is opening a bar/golf simulator soon in Guilderland, out on Route 20 by Western Turnpike golf course. It is going to be called The Bunker, and once I get out and about more, I’ll give you an in-person report, but it sounds like an excellent place to hang out and have fun with friends.

7) Major league managerial hirings:
— Cubs hired David Ross, who was an active player only three years ago.
— Phillies hired Joe Girardi, an excellent hire.
— Angels announced hiring of Joe Maddon; he worked for the Halos for 30 years before he became a big league skipper in Tampa Bay.
— Maddon hired former Mets’ skipper Mickey Callaway as his pitching coach.
— Padres hired 38-year old Jayce Tingler, who worked for years in the Texas Rangers’ system.

6) Last Wednesday, the first full night of NBA games, 22 Kentucky alums played and first thing Thursday morning, John Calipari posted all their stats on Twitter. Effective recruiting tool.

5) NFL knowledge:
— Denver QB Joe Flacco (neck) is out for this week’s game with Cleveland. Brandon Allen is the new starter; he has never taken an NFL snap. Allen started for 2.5 years at Arkansas, where the Hogs went 15-11 his junior/senior seasons.
— Chargers fired OC Ken Whisenhunt Monday night.
— Texans’ star DE JJ Watt is done for the season (torn pectoral muscle).

4) From ESPN stats: New Jersey Jets are first NFL team since the ’91 Colts who, through seven games, have fewer than 450 yards rushing, while giving up 200+ yards in sacks.

3) Of the 64 teams who trailed a World Series 3-2, 20 of them came back to win the Series.

2) Good news/bad news after my eye surgery:
Bad news: Had to cancel my annual Christmas trip to Las Vegas; can’t fly for a couple months after the surgery. I’ll survive, but I’ve enjoyed spending my birthday/Christmas in the desert.

Good news: Looking like a March trip instead; second weekend of NCAA tournament, and first week of baseball season.

1) Steelers 27, Dolphins 14— Monday, a gambler at South Point Casino in Las Vegas risked $100,000 to win $11,764.70 on the Steelers’ money line. He had to sweat some in the first half, but he won his 11 grand.

Saturday, someone risked $5,040 to win $210 on Oklahoma’s money line to beat Kansas State; the Sooners lost, once again proving Oscar Madison’s old line from The Odd Couple:

“There’s no such thing as a sure thing; thats why they call it gambling.”

**Udog** · 10-29-2019, 09:37 AM

Game 6 - Best Bet
Matt Blunt

World Series Game 6 (FOX, 8:07 p.m. ET)

Had you said prior to this World Series beginning that the series would be at 3-2 for Houston with the Astros coming home, I don't think anyone would be surprised at all. Yet, the way it's gotten to 3-2 is the oddity here, as a home team has yet to win a game in this series and have been outscored 36-10 in the five games so far. Four of those five wins for the visiting side have come by at least three runs, so even run line and reverse run line bettors have had a nice go of it.

It might have been a roundabout way to get the series to 3-2 in Houston's favor, the Astros winning in six games was the most favored outcome in terms of pre-series futures in that regard and here we are. Houston's got a chance to do it with one of their guys in Justin Verlander on the hill.

Verlander is still winless in World Series starts in his career though after Game 2 didn't exactly go as planned, and up against Stephen Strasburg again, he won't win this game with anything less than his best stuff. Will that be the case, or will Washington find away to put their home failures behind them and force a decisive Game 7?

Game 6 MLB Betting Odds

Washington (+160) vs Houston (-170); Total set at 7.5

Verlander's goose egg in terms of wins in World Series games will undoubtedly be referenced numerous times in Game 6, especially if he finds himself in some trouble early. And while I'm sure hearing about those past issues for the next 24 hours does nothing good for his confidence and preparation, he's also a guy who I believe you can count on to ignore things like that and focus on the task at hand. He's obviously got the stuff to make it happen, and it was just a couple of mistakes he made in that Game 2 start that was the beginning of the end for Houston that day.

At the same time, Strasburg is a guy that's got the weight of the world on his shoulders for this start as his teammates don't have a shred of confidence in this series anymore. It has to feel like forever ago that they were up 2-0 in the World Series after just beating Cole and Verlander, as their return home was one that this Nats team won't ever forget; and for all the wrong reasons. The first two games they got a slumping Houston team, and the past three they've faced the juggernaut version of Houston that torched MLB this year. Going into that juggernaut's house to try and force a Game 7 is no easy task and we might simply be looking at a Washington team that's rank out of gas. Maybe that “15 minutes of fame” has run it's course with them as it did with their Baby Shark theme song months ago.

Furthermore, this is also the first time in this series that we get a pitching rematch after Scherzer pulled out of Game 5 with an injury. That's always a scenario where I prefer to lean towards flip-flopping the results from the first outing if it makes sense. That's not to say if this makes it to a Game 7 and it's Greinke/Sanchez again it would be an automatic play on Washington, but it's a decent enough starting point in my view, and for this Game 6, it's hard not to like Houston ML and/or the 'under' as betting options after Washington ML and 'over' cashed back in Game 2.

Regarding Houston ML, it's the Astros who are playing the much better baseball right now, are brimming with confidence and do get a chance to clinch this thing at home. When you've got the better team playing the better baseball, that's a steep hill to climb for the opponent, even if some will look at +160 with Strasburg and shout “value” over and over again. Remember, this Astros team won the 2017 World Series out in LA, so doing it in front of their home fans – who've been supportive through the thick (recent years) and thin (beginning of the decade while in tank mode) with this organization – would have to be extra special.

Houston also gets to use their best possible lineup with the return of the DH, and given how they were able to get contributions from basically everyone in their order out in Washington – as the Nats did in Houston for Games 1 and 2 – I do think this series comes to an end on Tuesday night.

At the same time, going 'under' this total is just as strong a play in my eyes, because I do think both starters bring their best stuff in an attempt to either extend or close out this series. They've both got the stuff to do so, and Game 2 was a 2-2 game in the 6th inning before the wheels fell off for Verlander and Houston and they basically packed it in from there.

Historically speaking, non-Game 7 close out games in the World Series this century have also been ones where the 'under' tends to do well. Obviously this goes hand-in-hand with the line of thought that Houston does win this Game 6, but in the 13 World Series that didn't go the distance during this century, only two of them had close out games finishing with more than 7 total runs – the 2015 Kansas City Royals in Game 5 (7-2 game in extra innings no less) and the 2009 New York Yankees in Game 6 (10 total runs).

The average runs scored in those games clocks in at just 5.76, so if you are of a similar mindset in thinking the Astros do indeed close up shop on the 2019 MLB season in Game 6, 'under' should be on your card as well.

It's going to be hard for Washington to mentally and emotionally pick up the pieces after what happened to them at home, as winning two more games in Houston is too steep of a hill to climb for this team that's been a great story in 2019. So, sorry kids, Baby Shark dies once and for all in the MLB world on Tuesday night.

Best Bet: Houston ML
Under 7.5 runs

**Udog** · 10-29-2019, 09:42 AM

911WASHINGTON -912 HOUSTON
WASHINGTON is 79-47 SU (30.8 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 29

Washington @ Houston

Game 911-912
October 29, 2019 @ 8:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Strasburg) 16.608
Houston
(Verlander) 20.042
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-175
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-175); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 29

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WASHINGTON (103 - 74) at HOUSTON (117 - 61) - 8:07 PM
STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 23-26 (-14.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 115-99 (-7.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 24-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
WASHINGTON is 103-74 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 23-17 (+15.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 18-8 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in road games in October games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 29-22 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 35-25 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
STRASBURG is 61-28 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 34-13 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 16-7 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 79-50 (-23.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 76-49 (-9.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 42-38 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 23-23 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 23-18 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 29-22 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-3 (+0.2 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. HOUSTON since 1997
STRASBURG is 2-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.14 and a WHIP of 1.048.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
VERLANDER is 2-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.300.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.1 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 29

Game 6, World Series
Nationals @ Astros
Strasburg is 4-0, 2.42 in his last five games (4 starts); he is 1-0, 1.80 in three starts vs Houston, and is 5-2, 1.34 in eight playoff games (7 starts).

Verlander is 2-3, 4.15 in his last five starts; he is 2-0, 2.57 in two starts vs Washington, and is 14-10, 3.35 in 30 playoff games (29 starts), 0-5, 5.73 in six World Series starts.

Washington is in its first World Series; they’re 18-5 in last 18 games overall, obviously losing their last three games- they won the two games played here.

Astros won 2017 World Series; they won six of their last nine home games but lost last two. Houston is 16-7 in its last 23 games overall. Road team is 5-0 in this World Series.

MLB

Tuesday, October 29

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Trend Report
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Houston Astros
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Houston is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Washington
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Houston is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Washington is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Houston
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Washington is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games when playing on the road against Houston

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Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/29

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/29

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