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**Udog** · 10-15-2019, 08:14 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Interesting college football games on this week’s card:

— Florida State @ Wake Forest (-2)

— NC State (-2.5) @ Boston College

— Oregon (-3) @ Washington

— Arizona @ USC (-9)

— Florida (-5) @ South Carolina

— Baylor @ Oklahoma State (-3.5)

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Watching the Rams’ ugly performance in Sunday’s loss to San Francisco, it dawned on me that I should research how other teams have done the year after losing the Super Bowl.

From 2001-08, only one of eight Super Bowl losers made the playoffs again the next year, but from 2009-18, nine of ten teams did make the playoffs, even going 6-3 SU in their first playoff game that second season. Only one of those teams (NE 2018) got back to the Super Bowl.

We’ve talked a lot here about how competitive the NFL is, and lot of small things have to go in your favor for a team to have success; I’m guessing the schedule makers are also less forgiving to the conference champs. Success is fragile, that much we know.

12) I’ll say this; enjoy success while you can. Detroit Lions won three NFL titles in the 50’s, but have never made it to a Super Bowl, and haven’t won a playoff game since 1991.

11) If I was an NFL coach and my 3rd-string QB was making his first NFL start, I’d want my Hall of Fame QB (who is currently hurt) to go on that road trip, to help mentor the rookie QB.

But Ben Roethlisberger didn’t go to LA this weekend; coach Tomlin simply said “Injured players don’t make road trips”

10) San Diego is the 8th-largest city in America; why did the Chargers leave there? It makes no sense to me; what happens if they don’t sell a decent amount of tickets in the new LA dome next year? Can they go back to San Diego?

Can’t be much fun for the Charger players, when fans at their “home” games are mostly rooting for the other team.

9) Underdogs went 9-3 ATS Sunday; gambling is difficult.

8) Jay Gruden said over the weekend that coaches without final say over his team’s roster have to manage different staff and roster dynamics; “That’s the hardest part of coaching in the National Football League, in my opinion.”

That from a guy who just got fired, so he would know.

7) Back when I was in college 40 or so years ago, I got mononucleosis and was off the grid for 2-3 weeks; can’t remember how much weight I lost, but I do remember that I was 168 scrawny pounds when I went back to school, having probably lost around 20 pounds. Many moons ago, and if you know me, there was no problem regaining all that weight.

Was surprised to read that Sam Darnold only lost three or four pounds during his bout with mono. Protein shakes must do the trick; he played really well against Dallas Sunday.

6) One thing the NFL need to fix is how over-officiated their games are; former refs are TV stars now, pass interference instant replay is a joke (they almost never overturn a PI call/non-call), there is a flag thrown on most every kick return. Stop throwing so many flags!!!!

One thing bugs me a lot; stop calling taunting penalties!!! Or if you call them, just throw a flag, call it on both sides as a warning for guys to STFU, and move on. Coaches will tell guys to shut up and the game can go on. No one pays to watch the officials.

When Carson Wentz blew his knee out two years ago, it happened on a drive that should’ve ended three plays earlier, but the ref called a taunting penalty on a DB after a failed third down play. Eagles would’ve kicked a FG had the taunting penalty not been called, and Wentz wouldn’t have gotten hurt.

5) Quarterbacks and guys who run with/catch the ball get all the credit, but if your offensive line isn’t strong, your offense has no chance, especially if the QB isn’t mobile. When an OL struggles, people are quick to point fingers, but they’re reluctant to give credit in the good times.

4) Couple of quick NFL trends:
— Chiefs covered 11 of their last 13 AFC West road games.
— Last 12 times Tennessee failed to cover consecutive games, they went 11-1 ATS in the third game.

3) NFL TV ratings are up 6% so far this season.

2) Philip Rivers’ career record against the spread:
— As a favorite: 64-71-3
— As an underdog or pick ‘em: 41-31-3

1) Packers 23, Lions 22
— Detroit got inside Packers’ 10-yard line on first three drives, scored 13 points.
— Lions are 2-2-1 despite a +6 turnover ratio.
— Loss ends Detroit’s 4-game series win streak.

— Green Bay won despite a minus-3 turnover ratio (0-3).
— Packers outgained Detroit 447-229, but scored only 13 points on four red zone drives.
— Lions lost despite a 12-yard advantage in field position.

**Udog** · 10-15-2019, 09:55 AM

911HOUSTON -912 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 22-5 SU (19.5 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

913ST LOUIS -914 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 16-3 SU (14.8 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 15

St. Louis @ Washington

Game 913-914
October 15, 2019 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Hudson) 16.827
Washington
(Corbin) 19.863
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-155
8
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-155); Under

Houston @ NY Yankees

Game 911-912
October 15, 2019 @ 4:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Cole) 17.265
NY Yankees
(Severino) 15.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-160); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 15

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HOUSTON (111 - 58) at NY YANKEES (107 - 60) - 4:08 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. LUIS SEVERINO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 45-36 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 71-47 (-10.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 92-74 (-20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 107-60 (+17.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 59-24 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
NY YANKEES are 42-12 (+18.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 22-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season.
NY YANKEES are 49-28 (+20.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 73-32 (+25.6 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.
COLE is 29-9 (+16.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 5-4 (+0.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.4 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
COLE is 1-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.231.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

LUIS SEVERINO vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SEVERINO is 2-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.268.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

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ST LOUIS (94 - 76) at WASHINGTON (100 - 71) - 8:05 PM
DAKOTA HUDSON (R) vs. PAT CORBIN (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-5 (+0.9 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.6 Units)

DAKOTA HUDSON vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
HUDSON is 1-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.08 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.4 units)

PAT CORBIN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CORBIN is 2-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.17 and a WHIP of 1.439.
His team's record is 2-5 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-5. (-4.6 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 15

American League
Astros @ New York (1-1)
Cole is 6-0, 1.09 in his last seven starts; he is 1-0, 4.15 in two starts vs NYY, and is 4-3, 2.62 in seven playoff starts. Cole’s last loss was 24 starts ago, on May 22.

Severino is 1-1, 1.13 in four starts this year (16 IP); he is 2-1, 3.86 in five games (4 starts) vs Houston, and is 1-2, 5.33 in seven playoff starts.

Astros are in ALCS for third year in a row; they won 2017 World Series, but needed Game 5 to advance past Tampa Bay Thursday. Home teams won seven of nine NY-Houston games this year, with NYY winning three of four games played in the Big Apple.

New York lost the ALCS to Houston two years ago; they haven’t been in a World Series since 2009. NYY has allowed only seven runs in winning four of their five playoff games this month. Teams had yesterday off, so bullpens should both have ample rest.

National League
Cardinals @ Nationals (3-0)
Hudson is 6-1, 1.87 in his last nine starts; he is 2-1, 2.93 in six games (2 starts) vs Washington, and is 0-0, 1.93 in one playoff start, allowing four runs (one earned) in 4.2 IP.

Corbin is 0-2, 9.24 in his last five games (2 starts); he is 2-2, 4.50 in seven starts vs St Louis, and is 0-2, 7.56 in four playoff games (1 start).

Cardinals have been outscored 13-2 in series so far. St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are in NLCS for first time since 2014.

Washington won the NLDS in dramatic fashion Wednesday, they’re 14-2 in last 16 games overall, and are in NLCS for the time since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos.

MLB

Tuesday, October 15

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Trend Report
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New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
NY Yankees is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Astros
Houston is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Houston's last 15 games on the road
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees

Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games
Washington is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Washington is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games at home
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 9 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of St. Louis's last 12 games
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington

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**Udog** · 10-15-2019, 12:44 PM

By: Andrew Caley

POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

Luis Severino, New York Yankees (1-1, 1.50 ERA, $65): Severino takes the ball at Yankee Stadium tonight, and while Cole will be the starter who gets most of the attention heading into this matchup, you can’t ignore the impact Severino can have on this matchup.

While Severino didn’t face the Astros this season, in two starts against them last year, he allowed two runs on nine hits while striking out 21 in 16 innings. And the right-hander is looking more and more like his old self with each passing appearance. Oh, and the Yankees are 22-4 in Severino’s last 26 starts at Yankee Stadium.

3 STRIKES

MINING FOR COLE’S VALUE

How good as Gerrit Cole been this season. Well, he’s on the road at Yankee Stadium, against one of the only lineups in baseball that scored more runs than the Astros, facing a quality starter in Severino, and are still -155 favorites.

Considering those factors and a Yankees’ bullpen that has a 1.88 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .172 batting average this postseason and we are leaning towards taking the value with the home underdog at +135 tonight.

THIS SERIES IS OVER

Well, we mean in terms of tonight’s total, which is currently set at 7.5. As mentioned previously, Hudson struggles more on the road and is facing a Nationals team that has nearly an .800 OPS over their five-game winning streak. And while we think this series has a strong chance of ending tonight, the Cardinals should out up a little fight. Additionally, the Over is 5-0-1 in Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter and is 5-1 in Nationals last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The total is in trouble.

RED BIRDS HAVE POSTSEASON BLUES

St. Louis is a franchise known for being a perennial contender in the NL, however, that hasn’t translated to a lot of postseason success.

The Cardinals have dropped six straight NLCS games, are 2-8 in their last 10 playoff road games, are 7-19 in their last 26 League Championship road games and are 4-11 in their last 15 playoff games overall. A loss tonight means another season of unfulfilled potential in St. Louis.

**Udog** · 10-15-2019, 12:58 PM

Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton (quad) is not in the starting lineup for today's ALCS Game 3 at Yankee Stadium. Could be available to pinch hit.

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Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/15

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/15

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