Announcement

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 07:29 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Worst turnover ratios in the NFL last year:

-25— San Francisco

-18— Tampa Bay

-14— Jacksonville

-12— Arizona

-11— Pittsburgh

-10— NJ Jets

Of those teams, Steelers are only one with same coach/QB this season.

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

13) When you’re handicapping NFL season win totals, sometimes turnovers can be an indicator of future progression/regression.

From 2005-17, 19 teams have been minus-16 or worse in turnovers for a season; those 19 teams won an average of 5.1 more games the following season.

Usually when a team is so awful in turnovers, it is because the QB got hurt or it results in a coaching change, which creates positive results.

12) Last year, 49ers/Buccaneers had the worst turnover ratios in the NFL.

San Francisco was -25; they lost QB Garoppolo before the season.

Tampa Bay was -18; they fired their coach and hired Bruce Arians, who figures to improve QB Jameis Winston’s play this season.

11) Over last four seasons, 19 teams that were -10 or worse in turnovers won an average of 3.34 more games the following season.

10) Reverse thing goes for teams with positive turnover ratios; the last team to have a turnover rate of +16 or better, then win more games the next season was the ’05 Colts, who went 14-2 in ’05 (+12 TO’s) after going 12-4 in ’04 (+19 TO’s).

9) Over last six years, 32 teams with a turnover rate of +10 or better won an average of 2.28 fewer games the following season.

8) These five teams have a +10 or better turnover ratio last year:

Texans (+15), Seattle (+15), Bears (+12), Rams (+11), Patriots (+10).

7) Baseball stuff:
— Blue Jays traded utility guy Eric Sogard to Tampa Bay.
— Blue Jays also traded P Marcus Stroman to the Mets.
— Marlins traded closer Sergio Romo to Minnesota.

6) Baltimore Orioles hit multiple homers in 10 straight games, which surprisingly is a major league record.

5) Royals 9, Indians 6— Trevor Bauer took the baseball and fired it over the CF fence while manager Terry Francona was coming to the mound to take him out of the game.

4) Bengals’ WR AJ Green didn’t just sprain his ankle Saturday, he tore ligaments in the ankle and is out 6-8 weeks.

3) Mets’ OF Michael Conforto homered, then struck out in a 6-run first inning Sunday. Pirates’ starter Chris Archer threw 48 pitches in the first inning.

Steven Matz threw a 98-pitch complete game against the Pirates Saturday.

2) When the Cincinnati Reds are playing at home and a close call goes their way, during the replay review, they play the Beatles’ classic “Let It Be” over the stadium PA system.

1) Over last week, Milwaukee’s Brian Anderson, Colorado’s Drew Goodman have spoken glowingly on TV about Reds’ legendary broadcaster Marty Brennamen, who is retiring after this season.

Just good to hear people say nice things about a colleague; Brennaman replaced Al Michaels in the Reds’ broadcast booth- his first game was in 1974, when Hank Aaron hit his 714th home run and tied Babe Ruth for the all-time record. Nice way to start a great broadcasting career.

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 07:31 AM

Ballpark Figures - Week 19
Joe Williams

National Security

The second-place Washington Nationals host the first-place Atlanta Braves in D.C., and the Nats enter play 5 1/2 games back in the National League East. The Braves roll out LHP Dallas Keuchel for his eight start with the team since joining the club in mid-June, while the Nats counter with LHP Patrick Corbin. The last time these teams met in Atlanta, the teams split a four-game set, while the Nats outscored the Braves 22-18. In the most recent series in the nation's capital, it was the Braves coming away with two of three, with Atlanta outscoring them 20-16. Washington holds a slim 5-4 series lead over Atlanta this season.

Keuchel has managed a 3-3 record, 3.50 ERA and 1.26 WHIP across his seven outings with the Braves. He made his team debut on June 21 agtainst the Nationals, and it was his shortest outing of the season. He coughed up four runs - three earned - and eights hits across five innings in a loss to Washington. He has lasted at least 5 2/3 innings in each of his six outings since. As far as Corbin is concerned, he has posted eight wins in the past 13 decisions while whiffing 151 batters over 130 1/3 innings in his 21 outings. Corbin is especially tough in his home park, posting a 5-1 record, 1.68 ERA and 0.88 WHIP at home.

The Braves are 5-1 across the past six on the road against a left-handed starting pitcher, and 24-11 in the past 35 games away from home. They're also 24-11 in the past 35 against National League East teams as well. Atlanta is 9-3 in the past 12 overall against lefties, too.

The Nationals have picked up 14 wins over the past 20 home outings, and they have a 19-7 record in the past 26 against NL East foes. The Nats have won five of the past seven against lefties, while posting a 9-2 record in the past 11 outings in Game 1 of a new series. Washington has also registered six straight victories with Corbin on the hill, and they're 4-1 in his past five against winning teams and 6-1 in his past seven outings overall.

Looking Ahead

Monday, July 29

The Pirates use RHP Jordan Lyles against Reds RHP Sonny Gray at Great American Ball Park. The Bucs are skidding hard, winning just five of the past 21 games overall. They're also 0-5 in the past five divisional games, 0-7 in the past seven following a loss and 0-5 vs. RHP. Lyles hasn't offered a lot of resistance lately, either, as the Pirates are 0-8 over his past eight starts, while going 0-7 in his past seven inside the division and 0-4 in the past four road outings. Pittsburgh is also 1-6 in the past seven on the road vs. RHP.

The Reds have been trending upward lately with Gray on the bump. The Reds are 4-0 in Gray's past four when working on six or more days of rest, 7-1 in his past eight starts against NL Central opponents, while going 5-1 in his past six at home and 9-3 in his past 12 starts overall. The under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 for Pittsburgh vs. RHP, while the under is 4-1 in Cincinnati's past five at GABP, 31-14-1 in the past 46 overall and 25-12-1 in their past 38 vs. RHP. The under is also 4-1 in Gray's past five starts, and 3-1-1 in his past five at home.

The Dodgers and Rockies renew acquaintances at Coors Field in Denver on Monday night when RHP Kenta Maeda and RHP Jon Gray lock horns. These teams split a four-game set in Denver from June 27-30, with the Dodgers outscoring the Rockies 34-31 in three games which hit the 'over'. Overall this season, the Rockies have dropped eight of the first 10 meetings with the Dodgers. The Dodgers have won just three of Maeda's past 10 road outings, and they're 0-4 in the past four road stats against a losing team. For the Rockies, they have won five of Gray's past six home outings, and they're 4-1 in his past five against winnings teams and 5-2 in the past seven against NL West foes.

The under has cashed in each of Gray's past seven home outings against the Dodgers, and 9-2 in his past 11 overall vs. L.A. The Rockies are 6-2 in Gray's past eight home starts agaisnt the Dodgers, while the Dodgers are 5-2 in his past seven road starts aginst the Rockies. Los Angeles has won 21 of the past 29 against Colorado, and the Dodgers are 6-2 in their past eight visits to Coors Field. The under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 starts by Maeda against the Rox.

Weather Report
There are seven games on the MLB slate, and all venues have light and variable winds with next to zero percent chance of precipitation, so enjoy the weather-free day.

Tuesday, July 30

RHP Charlie Morton takes the ball from manager Kevin Cash as the Rays open a set at Fenway Park against LHP David Price and the Red Sox. The Rays are 4-10 in the past 14 road outings against a team with a winning record, while going 1-4 in their past five vs. LHP and 1-5 in the past six overall against losing clubs. Morton has been a stopper for Tampa, as they're 4-1 in his past five overall, and 4-1 in the past five inside the division. The Red Sox have rattled off five victories in the past six home games, and they're 5-2 in the past seven against AL East teams. They're also 32-15 in Price's past 47 starts, while going 19-9 in his past 28 against teams with a winning overall mark.

The over has dominated for both sides lately, going 5-1-1 in Tampa's past seven vs. LHP, and 3-0-1 in their past four on the road against lefies. The over is also 4-1-2 in the past seven Game 1s of a new series. The over is 4-0 in Boston's past four at home, 5-1 in the past six at home vs. RHP and 6-0 in their past six at home against winning teams. The over is also 10-1 in Boston's past 11 following a loss. While that's well and good, the under is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings in this series, 7-1 in the past eight at Fenway Park and a perfect 6-0 in Price's past six tries against his former organization, including 5-1 in his past six at home against the Rays.

The Astros and Indians hook up in a key American League battle with All-Stars RHP Justin Verlander and RHP Shane Bieber squaring off. The 'Stros have won nine of the past 11 against teams with a winning overall record, while going 8-2 in the past 10 vs. RHP. They're also 19-7 in the past 26 following a scheduled day off, while going 23-5 in Verlander's past 28 road outings, 6-1 in his past seven against AL Central foes and 4-0 in the past four against winning teams. The Indians have rattled off seven wins in the past eight at home, they're 36-16 in the past 52 overall and 8-2 in the past 10 following a scheduled day off. With Bieber, they're 7-2 in his past nine home outings, 21-8 in his past 29 overall and 7-3 in the past 11 against teams with a winning record.

The Brewers and Athletics kick off an interleague battle in the Bay Area. Milwaukee is yet to name a starter for this one as of Monday morning, while the A's use RHP Chris Bassitt. Milwaukee has struggled in interleague play, going 3-7 in the past 10 vs. AL, and 2-8 in the past 10 against AL West foes. They're also 1-5 in the past six following a day off, while going 2-6 in the past eight road games vs. RHP. For the A's, they're 5-2 in Bassitt's past seven starts, while going 24-11 in the past 35 games overall. They're also 8-2 in their past 10 home games, and 9-3 in the past 12 interleague games at home.

Weather Report
In Philadelphia, the Giants and Phillies will be experiencing a 10-13 mph wind blowing out to the left-center field power alley. The Diamondbacks and Yankees will experience 10-13 mph winds blowing out to left field for their interleague series opener, too. In Boston, the Rays and Red Sox will see 10-13 mph winds blowing from home plate to the Green Monster in left. At Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, the Mets and White Sox will see a crosswind of 11-14 mph blowing from third base to first.

Out west for the late games, the Dodgers and Rockies will see a 10-13 mph wind blowing out to the right-center field power alley, while the Brewers and A's see a 9-12 mph wind blowing out to the left-center field power alley. Again, though, there is no precipitation in the forecast.

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 07:32 AM

MLB
Weather Report

Monday, July 29

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 07:33 AM

951Atlanta -952 Washington
ATLANTA is 42-33 SU (15.3 Units) vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

953Arizona -954 Miami
ARIZONA is 18-6 SU (13.2 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

955Pittsburgh -956 Cincinnati
PITTSBURGH is 30-37 SU (-15.5 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.

957La Dodgers -958 Colorado
COLORADO is 6-17 SU (-12.9 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season in the current season.

959Toronto -960 Kansas City
KANSAS CITY is 27-33 SU (-16.2 Units) vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse in the current season.

961Detroit -962 La Angels
DETROIT is 5-20 SU (-17.1 Units) vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better in the current season.

963Baltimore -964 San Diego
SAN DIEGO is 17-38 SU (-25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the current season.

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 07:35 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, July 29

National League
Braves (62-44) @ Nationals (56-49)
Keuchel is 2-1, 3.46 in his last four starts; he is vs Washington. Team in his starts: 3-4
5-inning record: 3-3-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-7 Over/under: 0-6-1

Corbin is 3-0, 1.60 in his last seven starts; he is vs Atlanta. Team in his starts: 13-8
5-inning record: 11-9-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-21 Over/under: last five under

Braves are 4-7 in their last 11 games, 10-7 in road series openers; their last three games went over. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2-1 last eight games.

Washington lost three of last four games; over is 3-1 in their last four games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 8-1-1 last ten games.

Diamondbacks (53-53) @ Marlins (40-63)
Kelly is 0-3, 6.39 in his last five starts. Team in his starts: 8-13
5-inning record: 8-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-21 Over/under: 8-12-1

Smith is 3-0, 3.38 in his last four starts. Team in his starts: 9-7 (won last four)
5-inning record: 7-5-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-16 Over/under: under 3-1-1 last five

Arizona is 7-8 in its last 15 games; over is 4-3-2 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 8-6 last 14 games.

Marlins are 6-8 in their last 14 games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 9-6 last 15 games.

Pirates (46-59) @ Reds (48-55)
Lyles is 0-7, 10.45 in his last eight starts; he is 0-1, 3.00 in two starts vs Cincy this year. Team in his starts: lost last eight
5-inning record: 6-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-17 Over/under: 7-8-2

Gray is 2-1, 1.62 in his last five starts; he is 1-2, 2.93 in three starts vs Pitt this season. Team in his starts: 11-9
5-inning record: 9-7-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-20 Over/under: 7-11-2

Pirates lost their last eight games; they’re 6-12 in road series openers- under is 8-3-2 in their last 13 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-3-1 last ten games.

Cincy won four of last six games; they’re 6-10 in home series openers- under is 3-1 in their last four games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-3 last eight games.

Dodgers (69-38) @ Rockies (49-57)
Maeda is 0-3, 4.12 in his last four starts; he is 1-0, 2.70 in three starts vs Colorado the year. Team in his starts: 10-10
5-inning record: 9-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-20 Over/under: under 4-0 last four

Gray is 0-2, 5.06 in his last four starts; he is 1-1, 5.68 in two starts vs LA this year. Team in his starts: 12-9
5-inning record: 7-7-7 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-21 Over/under: 7-12-2

Dodgers are 5-3 in their last eight games; they’re 10-7 in road series openers- over is 7-2 last nine road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-0-1 last five games.

Colorado lost 10 of last 13 games; they’re 9-7 in home series openers- over is 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2 last seven games.

American League
Blue Jays (40-67) @ Royals (40-67)
Pannone is 0-3, 12.51 in four starts. Team in his starts: 0-3
5-inning record: 0-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-3 Over/under: 2-1

Keller is 3-0, 2.00 in his last four starts; he is starts vs Toronto. Team in his starts: 9-13
5-inning record: 9-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-22 Over/under: 7-13-2

Toronto lost five of last seven games; under is 6-4 in their last ten road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 3-1-1 last five road games. Blue Jays traded Sogard/Stroman yesterday.

Royals lost three of last four games; they’re 9-8 in home series openers- over is 3-0 in their last three games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-1 last eight games.

Tigers (30-71) @ Angels (55-52)
Zimmerman is 0-3, 14.09 in his last four starts; he is starts vs LAA. Team in his starts: 3-10
5-inning record: 2-10-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-13 Over/under: 8-5

Barria is 2-1, 5.70 in his last five games; they sometimes use an opener ahead him. Team in his starts: 2-2
5-inning record: 2-1-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-4 Over/under: 0-4

Detroit lost 28 of last 32 games; they’re 6-11 in road series openers- under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-1-1 last seven games.

Angels lost three of their last four games; they’re 8-8 in home series openers- over is 3-1 in their last four games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 9-1-1 last 11 home games.

Interleague
Orioles (35-70) @ Padres (49-56)
Bullpen game. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Lamet is 0-2, 6.00 in four starts. Team in his starts: 1-3
5-inning record: 1-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-4 Over/under: 1-3

Baltimore is 7-4 in its last 11 games, 4-13 in road series openers; under is 5-3-2 in their last ten games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-3-1 last ten games.

Padres are 4-11 since All-Star Game; they’re 10-7 in home series openers- under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 3-1 last four games.

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 7/25
Ariz 17-54……12-49……29
Atl 16-50…..19-53……35
Cubs 14-48……19-54…..33
Reds 18-51……16-49…..34
Colo 11-53……19-50……30
LA 14-50……20-54……34
Mia 8-50……12-50……20
Milw 15-50…..19-54…..34
Mets 20-57……14-45…..34
Philly 13-51…..18-52……31
Pitt 15-52…..14-50……29
StL 14-54…..12-48…….26
SD 16-50……12-50…..28
SF 6-49……10-52…….16
Wash 13-52…..13-48……,26

Orioles 12-51…….17-51..…..29
Boston 13-54…….17-50……30
W Sox 11-51…….17-49…….28
Clev 14-49…..16-53……..30
Det 15-50……14-48……..29
Astros 20-51…..11-53……..31
KC 15-52…..20-52……..35
Angels 17-53……12-51…….29
Twins 20-50……13-52……33
NYY 16-47……17-56……33
A’s 12-52…..14-52…….26
Sea 12-51…..16-55…….28
TB 19-51…..16-52…….35
Texas 15-51…..18-52…….33
Toronto 12-53…..14-51…….26

Interleague play- 2019
NL @ AL– 56-40 NL, favorites -$1,503 over 46-44-3
AL @ NL– 39-39, favorites -$1,837 over 39-37-5
Total: 95-79 NL, favorites -$3,340 Over 85-81-8

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 07:39 AM

MLB

Monday, July 29

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Trend Report
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Atlanta Braves
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Atlanta's last 18 games
Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Atlanta is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Washington
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Washington's last 23 games
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Cincinnati is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Miami
Arizona is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Miami
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami Marlins
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
Miami is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Miami is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Arizona
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Toronto is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Toronto is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Toronto is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City Royals
Kansas City is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games at home
Kansas City is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto
Kansas City is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 11 games when playing at home against Toronto

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Colorado
LA Dodgers is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing Colorado
LA Dodgers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Colorado
LA Dodgers is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Colorado is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 games
Colorado is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games
Colorado is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Colorado's last 17 games at home
Colorado is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Colorado is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

Detroit Tigers
Detroit is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Angels
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Detroit's last 25 games when playing LA Angels
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
Detroit is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
Los Angeles Angels
LA Angels is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Angels is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Angels is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games at home
LA Angels is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
LA Angels is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of LA Angels's last 25 games when playing Detroit
LA Angels is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
LA Angels is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit

Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing San Diego
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego Padres
San Diego is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
San Diego is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Diego's last 11 games
San Diego is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home
San Diego is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Baltimore
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore

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**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 08:03 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, July 29

Atlanta @ Washington

Game 951-952
July 29, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Keuchel) 11.874
Washington
(Corbin) 15.420
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-150
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-150); Over

Arizona @ Miami

Game 953-954
July 29, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Kelly) 15.312
Miami
(Smith) 14.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
-110
8
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-110); Under

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 955-956
July 29, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
(Lyles) 15.590
Cincinnati
(Gray) 17.048
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
-185
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-185); Over

Toronto @ Kansas City

Game 959-960
July 29, 2019 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Pannone) 13.949
Kansas City
(Keller) 16.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
-120
10
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-120); Under

LA Dodgers @ Colorado

Game 957-958
July 29, 2019 @ 8:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Maeda) 15.897
Colorado
(Gray) 18.731
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-140
13
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(+120); Under

Detroit @ LA Angels

Game 961-962
July 29, 2019 @ 10:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Zmmrmnn) 15.421
LA Angels
(Barria) 14.640
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1
13
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-250
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+210); Over

Baltimore @ San Diego

Game 963-964
July 29, 2019 @ 10:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
(TBD) 13.143
San Diego
(Paddack) 16.970
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 4
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
N/A

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 08:29 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, July 29

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (62 - 44) at WASHINGTON (56 - 49) - 7:05 PM
DALLAS KEUCHEL (L) vs. PAT CORBIN (L)
Top Trends for this game.
KEUCHEL is 11-16 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 6-13 (-10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 62-44 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 164-194 (+39.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997.
ATLANTA is 32-21 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 75-43 (+31.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 47-33 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 32-21 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 73-62 (+18.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 56-49 (-8.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 205-183 (-63.3 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 71-63 (-26.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 83-81 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-42 (-28.4 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 27-28 (-12.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
WASHINGTON is 34-39 (-18.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-4 (+1.9 Units) against ATLANTA this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
KEUCHEL is 0-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.609.
His team's record is 0-4 (-4.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

PAT CORBIN vs. ATLANTA since 1997
CORBIN is 4-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.03 and a WHIP of 1.233.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.6 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (53 - 53) at MIAMI (40 - 63) - 7:10 PM
MERRILL KELLY (R) vs. CALEB SMITH (L)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 83-81 (+14.3 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
SMITH is 18-14 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 19-12 (+7.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
ARIZONA is 30-27 (+6.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ARIZONA is 21-14 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-1 (+2.2 Units) against ARIZONA this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

MERRILL KELLY vs. MIAMI since 1997
No recent starts.

CALEB SMITH vs. ARIZONA since 1997
SMITH is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 11.25 and a WHIP of 1.750.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (46 - 59) at CINCINNATI (48 - 55) - 7:10 PM
JORDAN LYLES (R) vs. SONNY GRAY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LYLES is 0-18 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in July games since 1997. (Team's Record)
CINCINNATI is 34-25 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 62-60 (+11.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 98-94 (+11.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 48-77 (-22.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 431-461 (-102.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 423-385 (-86.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 10-19 (-12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GRAY is 84-86 (-29.5 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 16-21 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 49-60 (-30.9 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 31-38 (-24.0 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 35-40 (-22.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 7-3 (+5.5 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

JORDAN LYLES vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
LYLES is 4-2 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.65 and a WHIP of 1.252.
His team's record is 6-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-3. (+2.8 units)

SONNY GRAY vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
GRAY is 1-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.265.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA DODGERS (69 - 38) at COLORADO (49 - 57) - 8:40 PM
KENTA MAEDA (R) vs. JON GRAY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 24-25 (-18.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 120-90 (-18.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MAEDA is 18-22 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MAEDA is 13-17 (-14.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MAEDA is 12-17 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 141-132 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 97-83 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 81-75 (+18.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 44-35 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GRAY is 18-9 (+9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 5-17 (-12.9 Units) against the money line in July games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 8-2 (+4.6 Units) against COLORADO this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

KENTA MAEDA vs. COLORADO since 1997
MAEDA is 5-3 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.67 and a WHIP of 1.078.
His team's record is 7-4 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-7. (-4.9 units)

JON GRAY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
GRAY is 4-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.75 and a WHIP of 1.538.
His team's record is 7-6 (+4.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 10-3. (+6.6 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (40 - 67) at KANSAS CITY (40 - 67) - 8:15 PM
THOMAS PANNONE (L) vs. BRAD KELLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 40-67 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TORONTO is 109-155 (-45.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 24-46 (-20.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 33-24 (+12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 98-171 (-36.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 (+1.8 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

THOMAS PANNONE vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
No recent starts.

BRAD KELLER vs. TORONTO since 1997
KELLER is 2-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 5.25 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (30 - 71) at LA ANGELS (55 - 52) - 10:07 PM
JORDAN ZIMMERMANN (R) vs. JAIME BARRIA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 30-71 (-29.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 8-39 (-23.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 3-19 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in July games this season.
DETROIT is 12-42 (-24.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 23-58 (-27.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
DETROIT is 20-50 (-22.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
DETROIT is 9-36 (-20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA ANGELS are 18-7 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 2-1 (+1.0 Units) against DETROIT this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

JORDAN ZIMMERMANN vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
ZIMMERMANN is 0-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 1.350.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

JAIME BARRIA vs. DETROIT since 1997
BARRIA is 1-0 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 1.058.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (35 - 70) at SAN DIEGO (49 - 56) - 10:10 PM
GABRIEL YNOA (R) vs. CHRIS PADDACK (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

GABRIEL YNOA vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
No recent starts.

CHRIS PADDACK vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 12:54 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday
Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Angels are 17-0 SU as a favorite of more than 135 off a home game in which they won by one run and did not lead for six-plus innings.

SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Orioles are 0-40 SU when their opponent's starter has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than 2.01 and has struck out an average of more than 1.5 batters per game, as long as it is not the second game of a double-header.

OU Trend of the Day:

-- The Marlins are 0-12 OU in the last game of a series after a win in which they never trailed.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Braves are 0-7 OU in franchise history in Dallas Keuchel's starts.

**Udog** · 07-29-2019, 12:56 PM

By: Rohit Ponnaiya

STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS

STREAKING

Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals (8-5, 3.25 ERA, $227): The southpaw has been a huge reason for Washington's mid-season surge with the Nats going 6-1 in his last seven starts. During that span, Corbin is 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 57 strikeouts in 45 innings of work.

The Nationals begin their three-game home set against the Braves with Corbin on the mound. In his only game against Atlanta this season, Corbin allowed two runs through five innings but the Nats lost 4-3.

Coincidently enough, his Braves pitching counterpart today, Dallas Keuchel gave up three runs through five innings in his only game this year against Washington and Atlanta lost by an identical 4-3 score. Washington has gone 14-6 in their last 20 home games and are -150 faves to pull off the win tonight.

SLUMPING

Jordan Zimmerman, Detroit Tigers (0-8, 7.57 ERA, $-551): Zimmerman, and the Tigers, have been pretty much slumping all season but he's somehow managed to pitch even worse recently. In his last four starts the right-hander has an ERA of 14.09 and a WHIP of 2.67.

Zimmerman and the Tigers are +208 underdogs on the road today against the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels will start Jaime Barria who is 4-3 with a 6.63 ERA, 1.55 WHIP and batting average allowed of .299. But even those ugly numbers look better than Zimmerman's 1.71 WHIP and BAA of .328.

3 STRIKES

BOUNCING BACK

After a terrific start to his career, Padres right-hander Chris Paddack looked like he hit the rookie wall near the beginning of June when he recorded an ERA of 7.54 while giving up six dingers over a three-game stretch. But he's recovered nicely with a 2.15 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over his last five starts. Tonight, the Padres will host the Baltimore Orioles in an interleague matchup.

The Orioles are really bad, even against other bad teams, going just 15-48 in their last 63 games against teams with a losing record. They have yet to announce their starter for tonight's game but they will most likely be big underdogs versus the Padres and Paddack.

GIVING THEM A FIGHTING CHANCE

The Marlins average a National League-worst 3.56 runs per game but Caleb Smith has been giving them a fighting chance when he takes the mound. The lefty is 6-4 with a 3.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 110 Ks in 90 innings. Miami is 4-0 in his last four starts and is in a pick 'em at home today against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The D-Backs will start Merrill Kelly who got shelled for seven runs and three homers in just over two innings against Baltimore during his last start.

CHARLIE AND THE HITTING FACTORY

Almost every batter loves hitting at Coors Field but Rockies right fielder Charlie Blackmon is especially fond of his home field. Blackmon has a batting average of .415 with 16 homers and an insane OPS of 1.318 in 38 games at home this season.

Blackmon has a BA of .400 over his last eight games and will face Dodgers pitcher Kenta Maeda today. Maeda has struggled both on the road (5.23 ERA in 11 away starts) and against left-handed hitters, giving up an OPS of .797 (compared to a .509 OPS against righties).

Blackmon averages 3.66 total bases per game at home and the O/U for his total bases tonight is set at 1.5 with the Over paying out at -150. He is +270 to mash a home run.

**BettorsChat** · 07-29-2019, 05:29 PM

Stats Plays of The Day

963 BALTIMORE +1.5 +120
Orioles are 7-4 since Jul 03, 2019 on the road.
Orioles are 13-12 since Jun 28, 2019.
Padres are 37-51 since Apr 14, 2019.

Announcement

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/29

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/29

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