Cnotes MLB 2019 Thru the World Series News, Notes, Trends Best Bets and Opinions !

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, October 27


Houston @ Washington

Game 909-910
October 27, 2019 @ 8:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Cole) 18.532
Washington
(Scherzer) 17.117
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-155
7
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-155); Over




MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 27

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HOUSTON (116 - 61) at WASHINGTON (103 - 73) - 8:07 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 49-37 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 75-49 (-10.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 97-77 (-19.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 103-73 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 57-48 (+7.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 35-24 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 50-24 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
COLE is 30-9 (+17.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 95-74 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 7-13 (-15.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
SCHERZER is 3-8 (-12.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 (+1.2 Units) against HOUSTON this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)

GERRIT COLE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
COLE is 3-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.48 and a WHIP of 1.136.
His team's record is 4-3 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-1. (+5.1 units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SCHERZER is 4-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.065.
His team's record is 5-2 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-3. (+0.7 units)

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MLB

Sunday, October 27

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Trend Report
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Washington Nationals
Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
Washington is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Washington is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games at home
Washington is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Houston
Washington is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Houston Astros
Houston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Houston's last 20 games on the road
Houston is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Washington
Houston is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 27
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at WAS 08:07 PM

WAS +130 *****

O 7.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Air Yordan: �?lvarez hits 2-run homer in Astros' Game 5 win
October 27, 2019
By The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) Yordan Alvarez bided his time on the bench for two nights and had three swings to show for it.

Once the Houston Astros rookie was given a full-time job in Game 5 of the World Series, he had a blast. Alvarez went 3 for 3 with a huge two-run home run off Washington Nationals emergency starter Joe Ross to help Houston take a 3-2 series lead and move one victory away from a second championship in three years.

The homer was Alvarez's first of the playoffs and a jumpstart for the Astros' 7-1 win Sunday night. He became the youngest AL player with three hits in a World Series game since 1957.

Despite hitting .500 in the first two games of the World Series, Alvarez didn't see the field for Games 3 and 4 at an NL park with no designated hitter because of concerns about his defense. Alvarez took three swings in two pinch-hit appearances, popping out in one and flying out in the other.

The Astros won each of those anyway with no help from Alvarez, but manager AJ Hinch had a plan.

Hinch didn't want Alvarez sitting too long and saw an opportunity with his ace, Gerrit Cole, on the mound. He figured Cole usually gets ''so many strikeouts'' - he threw nine - that there'd be fewer balls in play. Alvarez had no trouble with the one ball lined his way in left field.

Alvarez, of course, was sixth in the lineup for his bat, which heated up in the first two games in Houston after going 1 for 22 in the AL Championship Series. The 22-year-old was starting to look more like the phenom who hit .313 with 27 home runs and 78 RBIs in just 87 games in his first major league season.

That power was on display in the second inning when he crushed a low-and-away sinker from Ross into the seats in left center. Alvarez passed Jose Canseco as the youngest Cuban-born player to homer in the World Series.

He followed that up in the fourth by singling to right - through the defensive shift - on an up-and-in slider and scored on Carlos Correa's two-run home run.

Hinch's hope was Alvarez would help get the Astros the lead and he could lift put in a defensive replacement. After another single to right in the seventh, Hinch lifted Alvarez for a pinch-runner.

His job was done, and Alvarez should be back at his usual DH spot against Stephen Strasburg in Houston in Game 6 Tuesday with a chance to win the World Series.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 29, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:07 PM Washington Nationals Houston Astros Minute Maid Park

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 30, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:08 PM Washington Nationals Houston Astros Minute Maid Park


******************************


2019 world series best bets and opinions:

Date w-l-t % units record


10/27/2019...........1-1-0...........50.00%..........+0.00
10/26/2019...........1-1-0...........50.00%...........-0.60
10/25/2019...........1-1-0...........50.00%...........+0.00
10/23/2019...........2-0-0..........100.00%..........+12.75
10/22/2019.......... 2-0-0..........100.00%..........+13.50

totals.................. 7-3-0.......... 70.00%.......... +25.65


best bets


date..........................ats...............un its..............o/u...............units..............totals

10/27/2019................0 - 1..............-5.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............+0.00
10/26/2019................0 - 0..............+0.00..............1 - 0..............+5.00..............+5.00
10/25/2019................0 - 1..............-5.00...............1 - 0..............+5.00..............+0.00
10/23/2019................1 - 0..............+7.75..............1 - 0..............+5.00..............+12.75
10/22/2019................1 - 0..............+8.50..............1 - 0..............+5.00..............+13.50

totals........................2 - 2..............+6.25..............5 - 0..............+25.00.............+31.25

[StarDust Bum]

Strasburg, Verlander head to mound for World Series Game 6
October 27, 2019
By The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) Good as Justin Verlander is, he's the only pitcher in baseball history to go 0-5 in World Series games.

For all his excellence, Verlander has a history of failing to close things out in the postseason, including losses in win-and-advance games in this year's AL Division Series and Championship Series.

The 36-year-old right-hander gets a chance to overcome both of those trends and help the Houston Astros clinch their second championship in three years when he starts Game 6 at home against Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night.

''That would obviously be a moment that ... I would cherish in my career, if that were able to happen,'' Verlander said Sunday before Houston beat Washington 7-1 to move out to a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series.

With President Donald Trump in attendance, Gerrit Cole gave up one run in seven innings and struck out nine for Houston, while rookie Yordan Alvarez and Carlos Correa each hit two-run homers off Joe Ross, a surprise starter in place of an injured Max Scherzer. The three-time Cy Young Award winner was scratched just hours before Game 5 began because of an irritated nerve near his neck.

After dropping the opening two games in Houston by a combined score of 17-7, the Astros have switched everything around completely, taking all three games in Washington by a total tally of 19-3.

Now Houston will look to Verlander to end the World Series, even though he has not pitched up to the high standards he established while winning 225 games, collecting 2011 AL Cy Young and MVP honors and earning eight All-Star selections. After going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and 300 Ks during the regular season, this is what he's done in five postseason starts: 1-3, 4.15 ERA, 35 strikeouts, 11 walks.

That includes a 12-3 loss in Game 2, also while facing Strasburg.

Five days later, Verlander gets another shot at the Nationals.

''Once they've seen you three, four at-bats, it's a little bit easier for them to make adjustments,'' Verlander said. ''And having seen your off-speed stuff and tracked it, you just need to execute a little bit better.''

Two years ago, in another Game 6, he could have sealed the Fall Classic against the Los Angeles Dodgers - and even had a sixth-inning lead, but Houston wound up losing 3-1. The Astros did come back the next night to take Game 7 for the title.

Then, this October, Verlander got the ball on short rest for Game 4 of the ALDS against the Tampa Bay Rays, but again couldn't get the job done in a close-out game, giving up three runs in the first inning and losing 4-1. Once again, though, Houston won the next game to claim the series.

And in the ALCS against the New York Yankees, the same scenario played out: Houston could have advanced to this World Series by winning Game 5, but Verlander allowed four runs in the first inning of another 4-1 loss. Yet again, Houston won the next game to bail him out.

Strasburg, meanwhile, truly has been at his best this postseason, frequently relying more on a seemingly unhittable changeup or a right-where-he-wants-it curveball as out pitches, rather than the high-90s mph fastball he thrived with in earlier times.

The 31-year-old righty enters Tuesday with a 4-0 record, 1.82 ERA, 40 strikeouts and just two walks in five appearances, four as a starter.

Memorably shut down for the 2012 playoffs to protect his surgically repaired right elbow, Strasburg has a lengthy history of health issues. That includes no fewer than a dozen trips to the injured list, with two per year in 2010, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018.

But not a single such stay in 2019, when he made 33 starts and led the NL with 209 innings while going 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 251 strikeouts. Add in his postseason innings, and his full-year total is 237, a career high.

His pitch total of 3,839, including October, also is the most for him in a year, as are his 17 outings of at least 100 pitches each, going 105, 117 and 114 over his last three games.

''I think mechanically, I've been able to be a little bit more consistent when I go out there and pitch. Just made some minor tweaks in the offseason training program. I kind of put more emphasis on just strength, not so much endurance, and trying to get my weight up,'' said Strasburg, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 amateur draft. ''And I was able to kind of ride that throughout the year.''

He's never taken the mound with nearly as much on the line as there will be this time.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 8 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Bills -1.5 (691)- L

5) Eagles +1.5 (697)- W

4) Buccaneers +2.5 (705)- L

3) Seahawks -6.5 (920)- W

2) Indianapolis -5.5 (1,409)- L

1) Carolina +5.5 (1,418)- L

2019 record: 25-22-1


Quote of the Day
“We have more in common than what separates us.”
The late Elijah Cummings. RIP, sir

Monday’s quiz
Before moving to Washington, where did the Nationals call home?

Last Tuesday’s quiz
Lamar Jackson played his college football at Louisville.

Monday’s quiz
There are no left-handed quarterbacks in the NFL right now.

********************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Lions 31, Giants 26:
— Giants scored only 13 points on three trips into the red zone.
— Big Blue scored with 1:19 left for the backdoor cover.
— Giants lost their last four games, allowing 30.3 ppg.

— Detroit opened scoring with a defensive TD 7:12 into the game.
— Six of Lions’ seven games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Giants converted 7-12 third down plays;; Detroit 8-14.

Titans 27, Buccaneers 23
— Evans caught 11 balls for 198 yards and two TD’s.
— Bucs outgained Tennessee 389-246; their last five games went over total.
— Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in last seven post-bye tilts, 5-8-3 in last 16 games as road dog

— Titans drove 90 yards on 12 plays for winning TD with 6:55 left.
— Tennessee scored 23+ points in its four wins, 17 or less in their losses.
— Titans had two takeaways in first quarter; their first two TD drives were only 10-6 yards.

Chargers 17, Bears 16:
— Chargers’ first five drives: 16 plays, 34 yards, one first down.
— Chargers’ last five drives: 28 plays, 179 yards, 17 points.
— Under Lynn, Bolts are 7-2-1 ATS as road underdogs.

— Chicago missed a 41-yard FG on last play of the game.
— Bears scored only 16 points on five red zone drives.
— Chicago outgained LA 388-231, running 77 plays, to 42 for Chargers.

Seahawks 27, Falcons 20:
— Seattle’s first five drives: 36 plays, 215 yards, 24 points.
— Seahawks were +3 (3-0) in turnovers, won field position by 13 yards.
— Seattle scored 28.5 ppg in winning all four of its road games.

— Atlanta lost its last six games, has bye now; will they fire Quinn?
— 38-year old Schaub threw for 460 yards; his last start was in 2015.
— Game was 24-nil at the half; Falcons kicked FG for backdoor cover with 1:17 left.

Jaguars 29, Jets 15:
— Jets drove 93 yards on first drive; next four drives: 11 plays, minus-9 yards.
— Gang Green converted only 11 of last 70 (15.7%) third down plays.
— Jets’ last five losses were all by 14+ points- they’re 7-14-2 ATS in last 23 games as road underdogs.

— Jaguars converted 8-17 third down plays, Jets only 2-9.
— All four teams in AFC South are .500 or better.
— Jaguars are +8 in turnovers in their four wins, minus-7 in losses.

Eagles 31, Bills 13:
— Eagles ran ball for 218 yards, outgained Buffalo 371-253.
— First two Philly drives of 3rd quarter: eight plays, 135 yards, two TD’s.
— Eagles were 8-15 on third down (7-21 in previous two games).

— Allen completed only 16-34 passes, 4.1 yards/attempt.
— First five games. Bills allowed total of 70 points; last two games: 21-31 points.
— Buffalo’s last six drives: 20 plays, 32 yards, two first downs.

Rams 24, Bengals 10:
— Cincy got into LA territory on six of nine drives.
— Bengals were only 6-18 on 3rd down, but 4-6 on 4th down.
— Under is 4-1-1 in last six Cincy games.

— Goff to Kupp: 7-10, 220 yards; Goff to everyone else: 10-21, 152 yards.
— LA is 6-1 ATS in last seven games as a double digit favorite.
— Rams’ first five drives: 40 plays, 363 yards, 24 points.

Saints 31, Cardinals 9:
— Cardinals had only 40 rushing yards; Murray ran only twice (11 yards)
— Arizona’s last three losses were all by 17+ points.
— Cardinals lost last five visits to Bourbon Street- their last win here was in ’96.

— Brees returned to action, was 34-43/373 passing, with three TD’s.
— New Orleans won/covered its last six games.
— Saints outgained Arizona 510-237; first downs were 28-10.

Colts 15, Broncos 13:
— This was Denver’s third loss this season by two points.
— Broncos scored only three TD’s on their last 35 drives.
— Denver’s last six drives: 20 plays, 129 yards, five punts.

— Vinatieri kicked a 51-yard FG with 0:22 left for the win.
— Colts won five of their last six games.
— Indy allowed 30-31 points in their two losses, 24 or less in their five wins.

Texans 27, Raiders 24:
— Oakland is 2-3 in its last five games, giving up 29.6 ppg.
— Raiders improve to 5-14-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.— Hunter Renfrow scored his first NFL TD on a 65-yard pass; there is also a Hunter Renfroe who plays outfield for the San Diego Padres. Go figure.

— Houston drove 75 yards in nine plays for winning score with 6:26 left.
— Hopkins caught 11 balls for 109 yards
— Texans ran 74 plays, to only 53 for Oakland.

49ers 51, Panthers 13:
— Despite the ugly loss, McCaffery still had 18 touches for 155 yards.
— NFC South teams are 9-14 ATS outside the division.
— At one point in this game a punt went out-of-bounds; a cheerleader caught the ball easily, while not dropping her pom-poms. Pretty impressive, actually.

— Coleman touched ball 13 times, scored four TD’s.
— 49ers are 7-0 for first time since 1990.
— Niners won their last four games by combined score of 113-23.

Patriots 27, Browns 13:
— Cleveland turned ball over on three consecutive snaps in first half.
— Browns are 2-5 ATS in last seven post-bye games.
— Why only three games at 4:00? Need more viewing choices.

— New England is 8-0, with one win by less than 14 points
— Patriots are 31-14-3 ATS in last 48 games as a home favorite, 3-1 TY.
— New England is 18-4 ATS in last 22 games as a double digit favorite.

Packers 31, Chiefs 24:
— Jones had 20 touches for 226 yards, including the GW 67-yard TD.
— Green Bay drives in 2nd half: FG-TD-TD-ran out clock.
— Packers are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games as a road favorite

— Moore did well in his first KC start, only his 6th start since 2011.
— Chiefs lost their 3rd straight home game; they host Minnesota next.
— Both teams converted over half their 3rd down plays; Pack 8-13, Chiefs 6-11

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Six of the highest-paid college basketball coaches:

— Mike Krzyzewski, Duke $8.98M/year

— John Calipari, Kentucky $8.04M

— Mick Cronin, UCLA $5.5M

— Rick Barnes, Tennessee $4.7M

— Bill Self, Kansas $4.48M

— Chris Beard, Texas Tech $4.2M


**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Glad to be back……

13) Here is a pro tip if you’re having surgery; go to the right bleepin’ hospital.

Thats right, I show up 20 minutes early for my operation last Tuesday, but turns out I’m at Albany Medical Center when I’m supposed to be at Albany Memorial Hospital, which according to Mapquest, is 2.6 miles away. Not good, but we got there and the staff at Memorial couldn’t have been nicer.

12) Backtracking a little bit, couple of Saturdays ago I’m sitting in the sportsbook at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, watching college football and talking with a buddy, when the vision in my right eye became foggy. Had no idea what the problem was, but it didn’t get better, and after flying home that Tuesday, it got way worse. Turns out the retina in my right eye had detached.

On October 22 (the 47th anniversary of the Oakland A’s first World Series title), I had my right eye operated on, and now I wait and hope it bounces back to where it was. In the meantime, I’d like to thank anyone who sent a text, e-mail or called to offer help/best wishes. Much appreciated.

— Thanks to Dr Mallick, who was my eye surgeon; appreciate you answering all my questions, and obviously, thanks a lot for putting my eye back together. Thanks isn’t really enough to say, but I really appreciate your work.

11) Part of rehabbing your re-attached retina is having your head pointed down a lot, so I’m listening to TV more than watching it; two observations:

a) Joe Buck is very good at baseball play-by-play.
b) 86-year old Hubie Brown is still great fun to listen to on NBA games.

10) When Washington Nationals’ OF Juan Soto was 10 years old, he played on an all-star team in the Dominican Republic that was coached by Robinson Cano’s father.

9) Since the start of last season, 56.4% of NBA players have changed teams, an amazing stat. NBA is the only league where the preseason is more interesting than the regular season.

8) A friend of mine here in Albany is opening a bar/golf simulator soon in Guilderland, out on Route 20 by Western Turnpike golf course. It is going to be called The Bunker, and once I get out and about more, I’ll give you an in-person report, but it sounds like an excellent place to hang out and have fun with friends.

7) Major league managerial hirings:
— Cubs hired David Ross, who was an active player only three years ago.
— Phillies hired Joe Girardi, an excellent hire.
— Angels announced hiring of Joe Maddon; he worked for the Halos for 30 years before he became a big league skipper in Tampa Bay.
— Maddon hired former Mets’ skipper Mickey Callaway as his pitching coach.
— Padres hired 38-year old Jayce Tingler, who worked for years in the Texas Rangers’ system.

6) Last Wednesday, the first full night of NBA games, 22 Kentucky alums played and first thing Thursday morning, John Calipari posted all their stats on Twitter. Effective recruiting tool.

5) NFL knowledge:
— Denver QB Joe Flacco (neck) is out for this week’s game with Cleveland. Brandon Allen is the new starter; he has never taken an NFL snap. Allen started for 2.5 years at Arkansas, where the Hogs went 15-11 his junior/senior seasons.
— Chargers fired OC Ken Whisenhunt Monday night.
— Texans’ star DE JJ Watt is done for the season (torn pectoral muscle).

4) From ESPN stats: New Jersey Jets are first NFL team since the ’91 Colts who, through seven games, have fewer than 450 yards rushing, while giving up 200+ yards in sacks.

3) Of the 64 teams who trailed a World Series 3-2, 20 of them came back to win the Series.

2) Good news/bad news after my eye surgery:
Bad news: Had to cancel my annual Christmas trip to Las Vegas; can’t fly for a couple months after the surgery. I’ll survive, but I’ve enjoyed spending my birthday/Christmas in the desert.

Good news: Looking like a March trip instead; second weekend of NCAA tournament, and first week of baseball season.

1) Steelers 27, Dolphins 14— Monday, a gambler at South Point Casino in Las Vegas risked $100,000 to win $11,764.70 on the Steelers’ money line. He had to sweat some in the first half, but he won his 11 grand.

Saturday, someone risked $5,040 to win $210 on Oklahoma’s money line to beat Kansas State; the Sooners lost, once again proving Oscar Madison’s old line from The Odd Couple:

“There’s no such thing as a sure thing; thats why they call it gambling.”

[StarDust Bum]

Game 6 - Best Bet
Matt Blunt

World Series Game 6 (FOX, 8:07 p.m. ET)

Had you said prior to this World Series beginning that the series would be at 3-2 for Houston with the Astros coming home, I don't think anyone would be surprised at all. Yet, the way it's gotten to 3-2 is the oddity here, as a home team has yet to win a game in this series and have been outscored 36-10 in the five games so far. Four of those five wins for the visiting side have come by at least three runs, so even run line and reverse run line bettors have had a nice go of it.

It might have been a roundabout way to get the series to 3-2 in Houston's favor, the Astros winning in six games was the most favored outcome in terms of pre-series futures in that regard and here we are. Houston's got a chance to do it with one of their guys in Justin Verlander on the hill.

Verlander is still winless in World Series starts in his career though after Game 2 didn't exactly go as planned, and up against Stephen Strasburg again, he won't win this game with anything less than his best stuff. Will that be the case, or will Washington find away to put their home failures behind them and force a decisive Game 7?

Game 6 MLB Betting Odds

Washington (+160) vs Houston (-170); Total set at 7.5

Verlander's goose egg in terms of wins in World Series games will undoubtedly be referenced numerous times in Game 6, especially if he finds himself in some trouble early. And while I'm sure hearing about those past issues for the next 24 hours does nothing good for his confidence and preparation, he's also a guy who I believe you can count on to ignore things like that and focus on the task at hand. He's obviously got the stuff to make it happen, and it was just a couple of mistakes he made in that Game 2 start that was the beginning of the end for Houston that day.

At the same time, Strasburg is a guy that's got the weight of the world on his shoulders for this start as his teammates don't have a shred of confidence in this series anymore. It has to feel like forever ago that they were up 2-0 in the World Series after just beating Cole and Verlander, as their return home was one that this Nats team won't ever forget; and for all the wrong reasons. The first two games they got a slumping Houston team, and the past three they've faced the juggernaut version of Houston that torched MLB this year. Going into that juggernaut's house to try and force a Game 7 is no easy task and we might simply be looking at a Washington team that's rank out of gas. Maybe that “15 minutes of fame” has run it's course with them as it did with their Baby Shark theme song months ago.

Furthermore, this is also the first time in this series that we get a pitching rematch after Scherzer pulled out of Game 5 with an injury. That's always a scenario where I prefer to lean towards flip-flopping the results from the first outing if it makes sense. That's not to say if this makes it to a Game 7 and it's Greinke/Sanchez again it would be an automatic play on Washington, but it's a decent enough starting point in my view, and for this Game 6, it's hard not to like Houston ML and/or the 'under' as betting options after Washington ML and 'over' cashed back in Game 2.

Regarding Houston ML, it's the Astros who are playing the much better baseball right now, are brimming with confidence and do get a chance to clinch this thing at home. When you've got the better team playing the better baseball, that's a steep hill to climb for the opponent, even if some will look at +160 with Strasburg and shout “value” over and over again. Remember, this Astros team won the 2017 World Series out in LA, so doing it in front of their home fans – who've been supportive through the thick (recent years) and thin (beginning of the decade while in tank mode) with this organization – would have to be extra special.

Houston also gets to use their best possible lineup with the return of the DH, and given how they were able to get contributions from basically everyone in their order out in Washington – as the Nats did in Houston for Games 1 and 2 – I do think this series comes to an end on Tuesday night.

At the same time, going 'under' this total is just as strong a play in my eyes, because I do think both starters bring their best stuff in an attempt to either extend or close out this series. They've both got the stuff to do so, and Game 2 was a 2-2 game in the 6th inning before the wheels fell off for Verlander and Houston and they basically packed it in from there.

Historically speaking, non-Game 7 close out games in the World Series this century have also been ones where the 'under' tends to do well. Obviously this goes hand-in-hand with the line of thought that Houston does win this Game 6, but in the 13 World Series that didn't go the distance during this century, only two of them had close out games finishing with more than 7 total runs – the 2015 Kansas City Royals in Game 5 (7-2 game in extra innings no less) and the 2009 New York Yankees in Game 6 (10 total runs).

The average runs scored in those games clocks in at just 5.76, so if you are of a similar mindset in thinking the Astros do indeed close up shop on the 2019 MLB season in Game 6, 'under' should be on your card as well.

It's going to be hard for Washington to mentally and emotionally pick up the pieces after what happened to them at home, as winning two more games in Houston is too steep of a hill to climb for this team that's been a great story in 2019. So, sorry kids, Baby Shark dies once and for all in the MLB world on Tuesday night.

Best Bet: Houston ML
Under 7.5 runs

[StarDust Bum]

911WASHINGTON -912 HOUSTON
WASHINGTON is 79-47 SU (30.8 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.


MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 29

Washington @ Houston

Game 911-912
October 29, 2019 @ 8:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Strasburg) 16.608
Houston
(Verlander) 20.042
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-175
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-175); Under




MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 29

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WASHINGTON (103 - 74) at HOUSTON (117 - 61) - 8:07 PM
STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 23-26 (-14.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 115-99 (-7.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 24-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
WASHINGTON is 103-74 (+11.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 23-17 (+15.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 18-8 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in road games in October games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 29-22 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 35-25 (+12.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
STRASBURG is 61-28 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 34-13 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 16-7 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 79-50 (-23.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 76-49 (-9.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 42-38 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 23-23 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 23-18 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 29-22 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-3 (+0.2 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.8 Units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. HOUSTON since 1997
STRASBURG is 2-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.14 and a WHIP of 1.048.
His team's record is 4-0 (+4.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-0. (+4.0 units)

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
VERLANDER is 2-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.300.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.1 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 29

Game 6, World Series
Nationals @ Astros
Strasburg is 4-0, 2.42 in his last five games (4 starts); he is 1-0, 1.80 in three starts vs Houston, and is 5-2, 1.34 in eight playoff games (7 starts).

Verlander is 2-3, 4.15 in his last five starts; he is 2-0, 2.57 in two starts vs Washington, and is 14-10, 3.35 in 30 playoff games (29 starts), 0-5, 5.73 in six World Series starts.

Washington is in its first World Series; they’re 18-5 in last 18 games overall, obviously losing their last three games- they won the two games played here.

Astros won 2017 World Series; they won six of their last nine home games but lost last two. Houston is 16-7 in its last 23 games overall. Road team is 5-0 in this World Series.




MLB

Tuesday, October 29

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Trend Report
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Houston Astros
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Houston is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Washington
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Houston is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Washington is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Houston
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Washington is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games when playing on the road against Houston

[StarDust Bum]

TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at HOU 08:07 PM

WAS +165 *******

U 7.5 ******

[StarDust Bum]

Nats pound Astros to force Game 7
October 30, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) Max Scherzer, this is your moment. And baseball fans, this is what you hoped for.

Because a World Series mostly devoid of drama suddenly involves the two most compelling words in sports: Game 7.

Mad Max vs. Zack Greinke.

The Washington Nationals, trying to rewrite franchise history with their first championship. The Houston Astros, aiming to build a legacy by taking their second crown in three years.

A pair of teams that began spring training under sunny skies in February, working out side-by-side in the complex they share in Florida, now meeting in late October under the retractable roof at Minute Maid Park for the biggest prize of all.

And this: What to expect from Scherzer on Wednesday night?

Unable to pitch Game 5 on Sunday night because of nerve irritation near his neck that required a cortisone shot, the three-time Cy Young Award winner is set to start this all-or-nothing matchup.

Scherzer tossed in the outfield before Game 6 - a charged, 7-2 win by the Nationals - and even threw in the bullpen in the seventh inning Tuesday night.

''I'm good,'' he said.

But whether the Game 1 winner, known for his incredible intensity, will be able to cut loose at full force, we'll soon find out.

''Max will pitch until his neck decides he can't pitch anymore,'' Nationals manager Dave Martinez said. ''I can't see myself telling Max, `You're only going to go 75 pitches.' He's going to want to go out there and go as long as he can.''

If Scherzer returns and wins, it might well go down in sports lore, along with Curt Schilling's bloody sock, Kirk Gibson hobbling around the bases and the night Willis Reed limped back on the court at Madison Square Garden.

''They'd probably make a movie about it. I bet, if he could, he could come back from the dead,'' teammate Adam Eaton said.

In the first World Series where the road team has taken the six first games, the wild-card Nationals meet an Astros team that led the majors with 107 victories.

Houston played in the previous Game 7 of the World Series, when George Springer and crew hammered Los Angeles at Dodger Stadium in 2017.

Road teams took the two prior Game 7s, too - Joe Maddon's Cubs at Cleveland in 2016 and Madison Bumgarner and the Giants at Kansas City in 2014.

Healthy, Scherzer went 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA this postseason in four starts and one relief appearance.

Greinke gave up one run over 4 2/3 innings in his first-ever World Series start when the Astros took Game 3. Acquired from Arizona at the trade deadline for these big games, the six-time All-Star is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in four starts this postseason.

The Nationals, meanwhile, tried everything to make the ailing Scherzer comfortable, especially on the flight from Washington back to Houston.

''He couldn't do anything for 24 hours,'' Martinez said. ''We put him in a neck brace. We sat him up in first class, so he had a lot of room.''

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday’s 6-pack

Six interesting college football games this week:

— Oregon -5 at USC

— Kansas State -5.5 at Kansas

— SMU at Memphis -5.5

— Georgia -6.5 vs Florida

— TCU @ Oklahoma State -3

— Miami @ Florida State -3.5

Quote of the Day
“…….Yet Irving’s infamous mood swings, confirmed by his ex-teammates, which followed him from Cleveland to Boston to Brooklyn, are the unspoken concern that makes Nets officials queasy. When Irving lapses into these funks, he often shuts down, unwilling to communicate with the coaching staff, front office and sometimes, even his teammates.”
From ESPN…….Nets are paying Irving $136M the next four years. Oy.

Wednesday’s quiz
Who was the Miami Dolphins’ coach last time they won a playoff game?

Tuesday’s quiz
Adam Gase was the Miami Dolphins’ coach last time they made the playoffs, in 2016.

Monday’s quiz
Before moving to Washington, the Nationals called Montreal home; they were known as the Expos


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Wednesday’s List of 13: Wrapping up last Saturday’s college football

13) Kansas State 48, Oklahoma 41— Wildcats scored on eight consecutive possessions in this massive upset; K-State had perfect balance; 213 passing yards, 213 rushing yards, as they scrambled the national playoff picture.

I’m guessing Saturday night was a fun one in the Little Apple.

12) LSU 23, Auburn 20— I’ve mentioned this a couple times, but Joe Burrow used to be the #3 QB at Ohio State— imagine ac college team having that much talent in their QB room?

Several years ago, I read a book called Meat Market, about recruiting in bigtime college football; it revolves around Ed Orgeron when he was head coach at Ole Miss. After reading that book, I wouldn’t have hired Orgeron as anything other than a defensive line coach/recruiter, but have to give him credit, he somehow got the LSU job and is running with it, primarily by giving up control of the offense to a 20-something who came in from the NFL’s Saints.

11) Minnesota 52, Maryland 10— Golden Gophers are 8-0 for first time since 1941; they’ve got a two-game lead in the Big 14 West.

10) Penn State 28, Michigan State 7— Spartans covered only once in their last 12 home games. Penn State is 8-0; they visit 8-0 Minnesota next week.

9) Kansas 37, Texas Tech 34— Never saw this before; Tech blocked the go-ahead FG with 0:13 left, but a Tech player lateraled the ball to a teammate, it was fumbled, and Kansas recovered with 0:02 left, where they kicked the game-winning FG, as Les Miles won his first Big X game with the Jayhawks.

8) Toledo 37, Eastern Michigan 34 (OT)— Bad beat for EMU (+2.5) backers; Eagles came into the game on a 19-5-1 ATS run as an underdog, but lost by half a point here.

7) Upsets:
Kansas State (+23.5) 48, Oklahoma 41
Colorado State (+14) 41, Fesno State 31
Oklahoma State (+10.5) 34, Iowa State 27
Kentucky (+10) 29, Missouri 7
San Jose State (+9.5) 34, Army 29
Illinois (+9.5) 24, Purdue 6
Rutgers (+7.5) 44, Liberty 34

6) Charlotte 39, North Texas 38— 49ers scored on a 34-yard pass play with 0:18 left, rallying back from a 35-21 4th quarter deficit. Total yardage was 589-539, Charlotte.

5) USC 35, Colorado 31- Trojans, Stanford and Cal are three Pac-12 teams that’ve all started three different QB’s this year, and before Halloween. Trojans trailed this game 31-21 after three quarters but rallied to improve to 5-3, 4-1 in Pac-12 tilts.

4) Oregon 37, Washington State 35— Ducks kicked FG at the gun for the win, giving Wazzu its fourth loss in five games, despite scoring 34+ points in three of the four losses. Oregon blew a 31-20 foutth quarter lead before pulling the game out at the end.

3) Kind of a funny moment in the Washington State-Oregon telecast Saturday night; Wazzu had the ball on its own 5-yard line, 3rd-and-25, with 2:00 left in first half, up 10-9. Analyst Brian Griese was preaching a conservative (draw play, punt) approach, while the play-by-play guy said they should throw and try and move the chains.

They threw the ball alright, and threw a pick-6. You could almost hear Griese smirking.

2) Navy 41, Tulane 38— Middies blew a 31-14 halftime lead, then kicked a 48-yard FG at the gun to send everyone home happy. Navy ran the ball for 385 yards, which usually means a win.

1) Memphis 42, Tulsa 41— Golden Hurricane missed a 29-yard field goal at the gun; sometimes its better to be lucky than good. 7-1 Memphis plays unbeaten SMU this week.

[StarDust Bum]

Zack vs Mad Max matchup if World Series extends to Game 7
October 29, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) Juan Soto is a youngster going deep in the World Series.

Soto's long solo homer in the fifth inning in Game 6 on Tuesday night was his third in the Series, and fifth this postseason.

The Nationals left fielder, whose 21st birthday was Friday on the same day as Game 3, broke a tie with Miguel Cabrera for the most home runs in a single postseason by a player younger than 22.

Soto will have a chance to add to that since Washington forced a Game 7 with a 7-2 win over the Houston Astros. His homer broke a 2-2 tie and put the Nationals ahead to stay.

Cabrera was a 20-year-old rookie for the 2002 World Series champion Marlins when he hit four homers that postseason. But only one of his long balls came in the World Series.

Soto, who also homered in Games 1 and 5, is only the fifth player 22 or younger to hit multiple homers in a World Series. The others were Hall of Famers Mickey Mantle (four) and Jimmie Fox (two), and Tony Kubek (two) and Andruw Jones (two).

LAST ADVANTAGE

The Houston Astros won 107 games during the regular season to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

They are now heading into Game 7 of the World Series and haven't won at home yet in the Fall Classic.

Their three-game losing streak at Minute Maid Park matches their longest at home this year - the Astros also lost three in a row from Sept. 10-12. They had a nine-game home losing streak in 2018.

FULL FIVE

The Nationals are the first team to use five different starters in the World Series since the Philadelphia Phillies in 1980.

That hadn't been the plan for Washington until Game 1 starter Scherzer had to be scratched from Game 5 and Joe Ross started instead. Stephen Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez and Patrick Corbin also started in this series for Washington.

As for those 1980 Phillies, who beat the Kansas City Royals in six games, their five starters were Bob Walk, Steve Carlton, Dick Ruthven, Larry Christenson and Marty Bystrom.

STAYING DRY

The roof at Minute Maid Park would have been closed anyway, but it's a good thing the home park of the Astros does have that retractable dome overhead.

It was raining Tuesday in Houston, and wet weather would have had an impact on batting practice and pregame activities.

On Wednesday, when Game 7 will be played, the forecast calls for widespread rain and thunderstorms throughout the day and into the night.

[StarDust Bum]

Scherzer set up to start Game 7 if Nationals get that far
October 29, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) Max Scherzer is all warmed up.

The Washington ace put aside his recent injury woes for a little light tossing in left field Tuesday, a day before he hopes to start for the Nationals in Game 7 of the World Series.

''I'm good,'' he said.

Scherzer was scratched from Game 5 about 3 1/2 hours before it began because of an irritated nerve near his neck. He got a cortisone shot while the Houston Astros tagged emergency starter Joe Ross in a 7-1 romp.

Stephen Strasburg was set to pitch Game 6 for the Nats. With a win, Scherzer would take the ball in an all-or-nothing showdown against Zack Greinke at Minute Maid Park.

''As of right now, yes. I think he talked to some of you guys already. He gave you thumbs up, didn't he?'' Nationals manager Dave Martinez said.

''He's good. He threw, he felt good. We'll see what transpires between now and tonight. But he says he feels good. So, yeah, as of right now he'll definitely start Game 7.''

For how long?

''If Max tells me tonight that he's good, then Max will pitch until his neck decides he can't pitch anymore. I can't see myself telling Max, you're only going to go 75 pitches. He's going to want to go out there and go as long as he can.''

Martinez said he couldn't imagine using Scherzer in relief during Game 6. Scherzer has come out of the bullpen for postseason appearances in the past, but Martinez said it would be ''pushing it'' to try that now.

The 35-year-old Scherzer outpitched Gerrit Cole to win the opener. The three-time Cy Young Award winner said it would take about 48 hours for the painkiller to have an impact, and he threw under the watchful eye of pitching coach Paul Menhart.

The Nationals took extra precautions to make Scherzer comfortable on their flight Monday from Washington to Houston.

''He couldn't do anything for 24 hours,'' Martinez said. ''We put him in a neck brace. We sat him up in first class, so he had a lot of room.''

''So he woke up today, wanted to throw. Came out and threw flat ground. He let it air out and he said he felt good,'' he said. ''I just left him. I think he was doing a crossword puzzle right now and getting ready to do some treatment.''

Scherzer had a bandage on his neck Sunday at Nationals Park after getting scratched.

''I feel so bad for that man,'' Adam Eaton said. ''I don't know how he's ever going to function outside of baseball because he's literally part of baseball in the sense of how he - everything he does is wrapped around his starts, his work.''

Now, Scherzer hoped for a chance to return for the biggest game of all.

''They'd probably make a movie about it. I bet, if he could, he could come back from the dead,'' Eaton said.

''If there's an opportunity to do it, it would be pretty sweet, honestly. I think guys would really feed off it,'' he said.

[StarDust Bum]

Nats' manager Martinez ejected after disputed interference
October 29, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) Major League Baseball executive Joe Torre says the ''right call'' was made and that a protest was denied after Nationals leadoff hitter Trea Turner was called out for interference during Washington's 7-2 Game 6 victory in the World Series on Tuesday night.

Nationals manager Dave Martinez was ejected for arguing plate umpire Sam Holbrook's ruling in the seventh inning, and Torre said Washington's request to protest the game was denied because it was a judgment call.

Holbrook's signal came after Turner hit a slow roller down the third base line with a runner at first and ran narrowly inside fair territory.

Pitcher Brad Peacock fielded the ball, and his throw pulled first baseman Yuli Gurriel toward the baseline. As Gurriel stretched, Turner ran into his glove, and the ball bounced off Turner's leg and into foul territory. Turner ended up at second, with lead runner Yan Gomes going to third - except Holbrook quickly signaled for interference.

Turner was called out and Gomes sent back to first base. After some argument from Martinez and the Nationals, umpires went to the headsets for 4 + minutes before signaling to uphold the call.

The Nationals wanted to pursue a protest, and Turner was heard on television pointing to Torre, MLB's chief baseball officer, in the stands and shouting ''He's right there!'' and ''Just ask him!''

''The call was the fact that he interfered with Gurriel trying to catch the ball,'' Torre said, adding that Holbrook ''made the right call at first base.''

Two batters after play resumed, Anthony Rendon hit a two-run homer to put Washington ahead 5-2. Eaton added a two-run double for a 7-2 lead in the ninth.

''I didn't think he was out of the line,'' Rendon said, adding he was happy to take a seat and rest during the delay.

Martinez stepped onto the field to talk with Holbrook and crew chief Gary Cederstrom after the inning and quickly became animated. Six weeks after having a heart procedure, Martinez was restrained by bench coach Chip Hale - or at least Hale tried - as the manager kept shouting and eventually was tossed.

Martinez is the first manager to be ejected from a World Series game since Atlanta's Bobby Cox in 1996.

Torre came onto the field a half-inning later and had a conversation with Cederstrom.

Holbrook's call was roundly criticized by other players on social media. Cleveland Indians pitcher Mike Clevinger tweeted it was ''just plain ugly,'' and Chicago Cubs slugger Kyle Schwarber called it ''a bad rule,'' suggesting MLB should adopt a wider ''safety bag'' like those used in many slow pitch softball leagues.