Cnotes MLB 2019 Thru the World Series News, Notes, Trends Best Bets and Opinions !

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Weather Report

Sunday, October 13

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, October 13


NY Yankees @ Houston

Game 907-908
October 13, 2019 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Paxton) 15.336
Houston
(Verlander) 17.600
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-155
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-155); Under




MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, October 13

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NY YANKEES (106 - 59) at HOUSTON (110 - 57) - 8:08 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 66-58 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 66-30 (+20.4 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 153-82 (+48.8 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 117-59 (+40.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 106-59 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 48-27 (+20.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 297-320 (-62.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday since 1997.
HOUSTON is 71-46 (-9.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 91-73 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-20 (-16.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 17-20 (-10.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-3 (+1.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.7 Units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
TANAKA is 1-4 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.237.
His team's record is 4-6 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-5. (-0.5 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
GREINKE is 4-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.52 and a WHIP of 1.285.
His team's record is 5-7 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-4. (+2.7 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, October 13

American League
New York (1-0) @ Astros
Paxton is 10-0, 2.88 in his last 12 starts, 0-0, 7.94 in his last two; he is 8-4, 3.24 in 14 starts vs Houston, and is 0-0, 5.79 in one playoff start.

Verlander is 4-1, 3.25 in his last five starts; he is 8-7, 3.55 in 22 starts vs NYY, and is 14-8, 3.20 in 27 playoff games (26 starts)

New York lost the ALCS to Houston two years ago; they haven’t been in a World Series since 2009. NYY has allowed only seven runs in winning their four playoff games this month.

Astros are in ALCS for third year in a row; they won 2017 World Series, but needed Game 5 to advance past Tampa Bay Thursday. Home teams won six of eight NY-Houston games this year, with Astros winning three of four games played here.




MLB

Sunday, October 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Astros
Houston is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games
Houston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
Houston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games on the road
NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Houston
NY Yankees is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
NY Yankees is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 13
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYY at HOU 08:08 PM

NYY +146

O 7.5

[Udog]

907NY YANKEES -908 HOUSTON
NY YANKEES are 21-5 SU (18.5 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.




MLB
Long Sheet - Corrected

Sunday, October 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY YANKEES (107 - 59) at HOUSTON (110 - 58) - 8:08 PM
JAMES PAXTON (L) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 107-59 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY YANKEES are 49-27 (+21.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 77-48 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 45-37 (-27.7 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 33-25 (-9.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 91-74 (-21.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 47-41 (-18.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 22-17 (-20.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 14-15 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 4-4 (+0.4 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.6 Units)
JAMES PAXTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
PAXTON is 8-4 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.227.
His team's record is 8-6 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-8. (-3.0 units)
JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
VERLANDER is 12-7 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.29 and a WHIP of 1.208.
His team's record is 15-13 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-14. (-3.6 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 14, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:38 PM St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Nationals Park

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 15, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
4:08 PM Houston Astros New York Yankees Yankee Stadium
8:05 PM St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Nationals Park

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
4:08 PM St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Nationals Park
8:08 PM Houston Astros New York Yankees Yankee Stadium


****************************


MLB PLAYOFF'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD.


10/13/2019.......0-2-0.........0.00%.......-10.50
10/12/2019.......1-3-0........25.00%......-13.40
10/11/2019.......0-2-0..........0.00%......-11.85
10/10/2019.......0-1-1..........0.00%........-5.00
10/09/2019.......3-1-0.........75.00%......+12.10
10/08/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%......+4.90
10/07/2019.......3-5-0.........37.50%......-11.25
10/06/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/05/2019.......2-1-0.........66.67%.......+5.00
10/04/2019.......3-3-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/03/2019.......1-3-0.........25.00%........-9.65
10/02/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-1.35
10/01/2019...... 0-2-0........ 0.00%....... -10.50


Totals............16-26-0........ 38.09%...... -52.00


*****************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/13/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................0 - 1............-5.50................-10.50
10/12/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................1 - 1............-0.50................-5.50
10/11/2019.............0 - 1............-6.35................0 - 1............-5.50................-11.85
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................0 - 0............+0.00...............-5.00
10/09/2019.............1 - 0............+7.60...............1 - 1............-0.50................+7.10
10/08/2019.............1 - 0............+10.40.............0 - 1............-5.50................+4.90
10/07/2019.............2 - 0............+11.95.............0 - 4.............-22.00..............-10.05
10/06/2019.............0 - 0............+0.00...............1 - 1.............-0.50................-0.50
10/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.00...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+5.00
10/04/2019.............2 - 1.............+3.45..............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+12.95
10/03/2019.............1 - 1.............+1.35..............0 - 2.............-11.00..............-9.65
10/02/2019.............0 - 1..............-6.35..............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-1.35
10/01/2019.............0 - 1..............-5.00..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-10.50


Totals.....................7 - 9.............-2.95.............9 - 14.............-32.00...............-34.95

[StarDust Bum]

Yanks' bullpen buckles in 11th after Paxton hooked in 3rd
October 14, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) The Yankees went to the bullpen early and kept a parade of relievers going to the mound - even CC Sabathia.

But New York's bullpen buckled in the 11th inning when Carlos Correa led off with a home run off J.A. Happ, the Yankees' ninth pitcher, to give the Houston Astros a 3-2 win Sunday night that tied the AL Championship Series at one game apiece.

On a night when starter James Paxton lasted just 2 1/3 innings and 51 pitches, Yankees manager Aaron Boone treated the third inning like he would the sixth during the regular season.

Chad Green relieved Paxton with one on and one out, then retired all six batters he faced. The Yankees went ahead 2-1 on Aaron Judge's two-run homer in the fourth off Justin Verlander, but Adam Ottavino came in to start the fifth and George Springer homered on his first pitch, a flat slider.

Tommy Kahnle pitched 2 1/3 hitless innings, Zack Britton worked around a one-out walk in the eighth and Aroldis Chapman struck out the side in the ninth around a two-out walk, a taxing inning that took 21 pitches.

Sabathia made just the third relief appearance of his career when he entered to start the 10th, falling behind Michael Brantley 3-0 in the count before retiring him on a grounder.

Out of high-leverage relievers, Boone brought in Jonathan Loaisiga, who walked two batters, then was replaced by Happ. The 36-year-old left-hander escaped the jam, striking out rookie Yordan Alvarez and retiring Yuli Gurriel on a flyout, then tried to elevate a fastball to Correa on his first pitch of the 11th.

Houston had five relievers combine for 4 1/3 innings of one-hit shutout ball after starter Justin Verlander left with the score 2-2.

[StarDust Bum]

Monday’s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 6 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Saints, +1.5 (810)- W

5) Cowboys, -7 (811)- L

4) Vikings, -3 (858)- W

3) Seahawks, -1 (932)- W

2) Jaguars, -1.5 (1,111)- L

1) LA Rams, -3 (1,225)- L

2019 record: 19-16-1


Quote of the Day
“More football games are lost than are won.”
Hall of Fame coach George Allen

Monday’s quiz
Which Las Vegas casino is shaped like a pyramid?

Sunday’s quiz
Mike Leach was the football coach at Texas Tech before moving to Washington State.

Saturday’s quiz
Tony Bennett won the national title coaching Virginia LY; before coming to Virginia, Bennett went 32-22 in Pac-12 games coaching at Washington State.

\***********************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday……

Texans 31, Chiefs 24
— Texans covered six of last seven games when getting points on the road.
— Houston ran for 192 yards; they ran 83 plays, Chiefs 47.
— AFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 8-2 ATS

— Chiefs lost consecutive home games for first time since 2013.
— KC’s first three drives: 19 plays, 176 yards, 17 points.
— KC’s last six drives: 29 plays, 145 yards, 7 points.

Jets 24, Cowboys 22
— Dallas lost its last three games after a 3-0 start.
— Cowboys scored 31+ points in their three wins, were held to 10-24-22 in losses.
— Dallas was 10-17 on third down, the Jets only 2-10.

— Darnold proves that franchise QB’s are worth every penny.
— He threw for 338 yards, including a 92-yard TD to Anderson.
— Cowboys scored TD with 0:43 left but missed on tying 2-point play.

Ravens 23, Bengals 17
— Bengals ran opening kick back for TD; their next TD was with 1:28 left in game.
— Winless Cincy has four losses by six or fewer points.
— Bengals are 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as road underdogs.

— Jackson ran ball for 152 yards, 4th-most ever by a QB.
— First two Raven drives: 16 plays, 141 yards, 14 points.
— Last seven Raven drives: 38 plays, 325 yards, 9 points.

Seahawks 32, Browns 28
— Seattle had four takeaways (+3), blocked a punt.
— Seahawks trailed 20-6 in 2nd quarter, cut it to 20-18 by the half.
— Seattle is 5-1 with four wins by four of fewer points.

— Kitchens mismanaged his timeouts; needed one with 2:11 left for a challenge, but didn’t have it, and he might’ve won the challenge.
— Cleveland is 6-14 ATS in last 20 games as a favorite.
— Browns lost their first three home games; they play New England after their bye.

Saints 13, Jaguars 6
— Saints are 5-1, with no wins by more than seven points.
— New Orleans is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games.
— Saints are 4-0 SU/ATS with Teddy Bridgewater under center.

— Jaguars’ first four drives: 14 plays, 33 yards, four punts.
— New Orleans won field position in this game by 14 yards.
— Jaguars gained only 226 yards, converted 4-14 third down plays.

Vikings 38, Eagles 20
— Eagles allowed Minnesota to gain 10.8 yards/pass attempt.
— Philly is 9-25 on 3rd down last two games (32-57 in first four games).
— This was first time this season Eagles were outscored in 2nd half (14-10).

— Cousins was 22-29/333 passing with four TD’s.
— Diggs caught seven balls for 167 yards and four TD’s.
— Under Zimmer, Minnesota is 25-7-1 ATS as a home favorite

Panthers 37, Buccaneers 26:
— Carolina is now 4-0 with Allen at QB, scoring 31.3 ppg
— Panthers sacked Winston seven times.
— Carolina started 5 drives in TB territory, won field position by 14 yards.

— Bucs turned ball over seven times on 75 plays.
— Winston in first QB since 1996 (Mark Brunell) with 400+ PY, 5+ INT’s in same game.
— Bucs allowed 31+ points in five of their six games.

Redskins 17, Dolphins 16
— McLaurin scored both Redskin TD’s, catching passes of 33-25 yards.
— Washington ran ball 33 times, threw 25 passes in Callahan’s first game as HC.
— NFC East teams are 4-12 ATS outside their division.

— Fitzpatrick came off bench, rallied Dolphins for two 4th quarter TD’s, their first 2nd half points this season.
— Miami scored with 0:06 left, went for 2 points and the win- they missed.
— Dolphins were outscored 149-36 in their first four home games.

49ers 20, Rams 7
— Under Shanahan, SF is 10-7 ATS as a road underdog. 3-0 this year.
— TE George Kittle had eight catches for 103 yards.
— This was first time since 2001 that these rivals met when both sides were over .500.

— Rams lost their last three games, after a 3-0 start.
— Goff threw for 912 yards in previous two games, but had only 78 in this game.
— LA converted only seven of last 31 third down plays.

Cardinals 34, Falcons 33
— Atlanta rallied back from down 27-10, scored TD with 1:53 left, but missed PAT.
— Ryan was 30-36/356 passing, with four TD passes.
— Falcons are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games

— Arizona won its last two games by total of 4 points, after an 0-2-1 start.
— Cardinals’ first five drives: 46 plays, 357 yards, three TD’s, two FG’s.
— Arizona is 15-10-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a home underdog.

Broncos 16, Titans 0
— Tennessee lost 4 of last 5 games; they scored one TD on their last 25 drives.
— Titans scored 43-24 points in their wins, 17-7-7-0 in losses.
— Last four Tennessee games stayed under the total.

— Denver won its last two games after an 0-4 start.
— Broncos’ only TD here came on a 41-yard drive.
— Denver held the Titans to 39 yards on 21 rushing attempts.

Steelers 24, Chargers 17
— Pittsburgh scored a defensive TD 4:09 into the game.
— Steelers led 24-0 after three quarters, get win in Devlin’s first NFL start.
— Pitt is 17-8-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog

— San Diego is 8th-largest city in country; why did Chargers leave there?
— Sounded like crowd was at least 80% Steeler fans.
— Chargers are 2-9 ATS in last 11 games as a home favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

LEADING OFF: Strasburg, Nats lead Cards 2-0, Stanton hurt
October 13, 2019
By The Associated Press

A look at what's happening around the majors Monday:

MAKING THEIR PITCH

Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals try to move within a win of the World Series. They lead St. Louis 2-0 in the NL Championship Series after dominant starts by Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez - the Cardinals totaled just four hits in their two losses at Busch Stadium and are batting .070 in the best-of-seven matchup.

Strasburg faces Cardinals star Jack Flaherty as the series shifts to Nationals Park. Strasburg has a 1.32 ERA in six postseason games, five of them starts. He's 2-0 in the playoffs this fall.

Cardinals manager Mike Shildt wouldn't reveal his lineup a day before Game 3. It's possible he makes a tweak, but after analytics showed his hitters aren't chasing the ball out of the strike zone at a higher rate, St. Louis is ready to stay the course without major changes.

Teams that have taken a 2-0 lead on the road in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win 88% of the time in MLB history.

LEGGED OUT

Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton is trying to heal up a strained right quad that kept him out of the starting lineup for Game 2 of the AL Championship Series in Houston. The teams don't play again until Tuesday in the Bronx, and manager Aaron Boone was hopeful Stanton could recover in time to start Game 3.

Stanton was injured running out an infield single in the second inning of Game 1 but remained in the game and homered off Zack Greinke in a 7-0 victory. Cameron Maybin was set to play left field and bat seventh in place of the 2017 NL MVP.

If Stanton misses more time, switch-hitting center fielder Aaron Hicks could also crack the lineup. The Yankees have good incentive to be patient with Stanton. If he's removed from the active roster with an injury, he'd be ineligible should New York make the World Series.

GETTING CLOSE

The Nationals remain uncertain about the status of outfielder Victor Robles as he returns from a strained right hamstring. The 22-year-old Robles hasn't played since injuring himself in Game 2 of the NL Division Series against the Dodgers. Manager Dave Martinez said Robles planned to run and get treatment Sunday, then would take batting practice and do more running prior to Game 3 to determine if he could play.

''I'm not going to anticipate anything until he comes in tomorrow, but he's progressing,'' Martinez said. ''And hopefully he'll be ready.''

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

909ST LOUIS -910 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 18-5 SU (12.5 Units) in home games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse in the current season.


MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 14

St. Louis @ Washington

Game 909-910
October 14, 2019 @ 7:38 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 17.448
Washington
(Strasburg) 19.242
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-125
7
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-125); Under




MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 14

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (94 - 75) at WASHINGTON (99 - 71) - 7:07 PM
JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. STEPHEN STRASBURG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 9-15 (-10.9 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
FLAHERTY is 29-34 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 94-75 (+3.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 29-22 (+8.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
ST LOUIS is 87-76 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 15-2 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday this season.
ST LOUIS is 86-69 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 485-436 (+59.0 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 181-151 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 214-185 (-57.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 93-72 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 6-13 (-16.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 22-25 (-14.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 111-96 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 96-85 (-22.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-4 (+1.9 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+5.8 Units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
FLAHERTY is 0-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
STRASBURG is 3-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 1.093.
His team's record is 5-3 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-2. (+3.8 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 14

National League
Cardinals @ Nationals (2-0)
Flaherty is 2-1, 1.29 in his last five starts; he is 0-0, 1.80 in one start vs Washington, and is 1-1, 2.77 in two playoff starts.

Strasburg is 4-0, 2.08 in his last seven starts; he is 3-2, 2.50 in eight starts vs St Louis, and is 3-2, 1.32 in six playoff games (5 starts).

Cardinals haven’t had a hit in first six innings of either game in series so far, both losses. St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are in NLCS for first time since 2014.

Washington won the NLDS in dramatic fashion Wednesday, they’re 13-2 in last 15 games overall, and are in NLCS for the time since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos.




MLB

Monday, October 14

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games
Washington is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
St. Louis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Washington
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, OCTOBER 14
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

STL at WAS 07:38 PM

STL +123

O 7.0

[StarDust Bum]

Cardinals can't hit, pitch, run or field, fall into 3-0 hole
October 14, 2019
By The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) Instead of dwelling on the St. Louis Cardinals' troubles at the plate after two losses in the NL Championship Series, manager Mike Shildt tried to accentuate the positives.

''We've pitched really, really well,'' he said. ''We've played really good defense. We've run the bases when we're getting the opportunities really well.''

Not anymore. And it might be too late to do anything about those silent bats.

All those previously reliable elements abandoned the Cardinals in Game 3 on Monday night, and their hitting never showed up. After another anemic offensive showing, they got blown out 8-1 by the Washington Nationals to fall into a 3-0 hole and are one loss Tuesday from being swept out of the best-of-seven series.

A comedy of errors in the field and on the basepaths and a rare off night for 23-year-old ace Jack Flaherty did little to relieve the pressure of a lineup still flummoxed by Nationals pitching. St. Louis scored one unearned run on a throwing error and has a grand total of two runs on 11 hits in the series.

Shildt opted not to shake up a lineup that had gone cold since a 13-run outburst in the clinching Game 5 of the NLDS at Atlanta, changing out only Matt Carpenter for Jose Martinez. That didn't work: Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg mowed down the Cardinals with 12 strikeouts and zero walks.

Leadoff hitter Dexter Fowler went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts. Power-hitting first baseman Paul Goldschmidt struck out four times. And when Marcell Ozuna doubled leading off the second inning, he stunted the momentum with a baserunning blunder that set the tone for the rest of the night.

With little coming at the plate and the Cardinals' margin for error razor thin, each mistake - like Ozuna missing a catchable ball in left field - became more demoralizing. It didn't help that the starting pitching that kept St. Louis afloat in the first two games wasn't at the same level.

After going 18 consecutive starts without allowing more than three runs, Flaherty surrendered four on four hits in the third inning alone. He then started off the fourth by giving up Kurt Suzuki's first hit of the playoffs and didn't make it to the fifth.

By the time Shildt turned to his bullpen - to fittingly terrible results - it was difficult to envision the Cardinals scoring enough runs to even make it interesting. The crushing combination of no hitting and flawed play all over the field put St. Louis on the brink of elimination with 25-year-old Dakota Hudson going to the mound trying to extend this season one more day.

''I'm not going to go out there and try to do anything that's out of my skillset,'' Hudson said before Game 3. ''I just want to give the best I have and stay within myself to where I have the best chance of success.''

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 15, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
4:08 PM Houston Astros New York Yankees Yankee Stadium
8:05 PM St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Nationals Park


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MLB PLAYOFF'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD.

10/14/2019.......1-1-0.......50.00%........+0.00
10/13/2019.......0-2-0.........0.00%.......-10.50
10/12/2019.......1-3-0........25.00%......-13.40
10/11/2019.......0-2-0..........0.00%......-11.85
10/10/2019.......0-1-1..........0.00%........-5.00
10/09/2019.......3-1-0.........75.00%......+12.10
10/08/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%......+4.90
10/07/2019.......3-5-0.........37.50%......-11.25
10/06/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/05/2019.......2-1-0.........66.67%.......+5.00
10/04/2019.......3-3-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/03/2019.......1-3-0.........25.00%........-9.65
10/02/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-1.35
10/01/2019...... 0-2-0........ 0.00%....... -10.50


Totals............17-27-0........ 38.63%...... -52.00


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BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/14/2019.............0 - 0.......... +0.00...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+5.00
10/13/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................0 - 1............-5.50................-10.50
10/12/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................1 - 1............-0.50................-5.50
10/11/2019.............0 - 1............-6.35................0 - 1............-5.50................-11.85
10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................0 - 0............+0.00...............-5.00
10/09/2019.............1 - 0............+7.60...............1 - 1............-0.50................+7.10
10/08/2019.............1 - 0............+10.40.............0 - 1............-5.50................+4.90
10/07/2019.............2 - 0............+11.95.............0 - 4.............-22.00..............-10.05
10/06/2019.............0 - 0............+0.00...............1 - 1.............-0.50................-0.50
10/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.00...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+5.00
10/04/2019.............2 - 1.............+3.45..............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+12.95
10/03/2019.............1 - 1.............+1.35..............0 - 2.............-11.00..............-9.65
10/02/2019.............0 - 1..............-6.35..............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-1.35
10/01/2019.............0 - 1..............-5.00..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-10.50


Totals.....................7 - 9.............-2.95.............10 - 14.............-27.00...............-29.95

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Interesting college football games on this week’s card:

— Florida State @ Wake Forest (-2)

— NC State (-2.5) @ Boston College

— Oregon (-3) @ Washington

— Arizona @ USC (-9)

— Florida (-5) @ South Carolina

— Baylor @ Oklahoma State (-3.5)


**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) Watching the Rams’ ugly performance in Sunday’s loss to San Francisco, it dawned on me that I should research how other teams have done the year after losing the Super Bowl.

From 2001-08, only one of eight Super Bowl losers made the playoffs again the next year, but from 2009-18, nine of ten teams did make the playoffs, even going 6-3 SU in their first playoff game that second season. Only one of those teams (NE 2018) got back to the Super Bowl.

We’ve talked a lot here about how competitive the NFL is, and lot of small things have to go in your favor for a team to have success; I’m guessing the schedule makers are also less forgiving to the conference champs. Success is fragile, that much we know.

12) I’ll say this; enjoy success while you can. Detroit Lions won three NFL titles in the 50’s, but have never made it to a Super Bowl, and haven’t won a playoff game since 1991.

11) If I was an NFL coach and my 3rd-string QB was making his first NFL start, I’d want my Hall of Fame QB (who is currently hurt) to go on that road trip, to help mentor the rookie QB.

But Ben Roethlisberger didn’t go to LA this weekend; coach Tomlin simply said “Injured players don’t make road trips”

10) San Diego is the 8th-largest city in America; why did the Chargers leave there? It makes no sense to me; what happens if they don’t sell a decent amount of tickets in the new LA dome next year? Can they go back to San Diego?

Can’t be much fun for the Charger players, when fans at their “home” games are mostly rooting for the other team.

9) Underdogs went 9-3 ATS Sunday; gambling is difficult.

8) Jay Gruden said over the weekend that coaches without final say over his team’s roster have to manage different staff and roster dynamics; “That’s the hardest part of coaching in the National Football League, in my opinion.”

That from a guy who just got fired, so he would know.

7) Back when I was in college 40 or so years ago, I got mononucleosis and was off the grid for 2-3 weeks; can’t remember how much weight I lost, but I do remember that I was 168 scrawny pounds when I went back to school, having probably lost around 20 pounds. Many moons ago, and if you know me, there was no problem regaining all that weight.

Was surprised to read that Sam Darnold only lost three or four pounds during his bout with mono. Protein shakes must do the trick; he played really well against Dallas Sunday.

6) One thing the NFL need to fix is how over-officiated their games are; former refs are TV stars now, pass interference instant replay is a joke (they almost never overturn a PI call/non-call), there is a flag thrown on most every kick return. Stop throwing so many flags!!!!

One thing bugs me a lot; stop calling taunting penalties!!! Or if you call them, just throw a flag, call it on both sides as a warning for guys to STFU, and move on. Coaches will tell guys to shut up and the game can go on. No one pays to watch the officials.

When Carson Wentz blew his knee out two years ago, it happened on a drive that should’ve ended three plays earlier, but the ref called a taunting penalty on a DB after a failed third down play. Eagles would’ve kicked a FG had the taunting penalty not been called, and Wentz wouldn’t have gotten hurt.

5) Quarterbacks and guys who run with/catch the ball get all the credit, but if your offensive line isn’t strong, your offense has no chance, especially if the QB isn’t mobile. When an OL struggles, people are quick to point fingers, but they’re reluctant to give credit in the good times.

4) Couple of quick NFL trends:
— Chiefs covered 11 of their last 13 AFC West road games.
— Last 12 times Tennessee failed to cover consecutive games, they went 11-1 ATS in the third game.

3) NFL TV ratings are up 6% so far this season.

2) Philip Rivers’ career record against the spread:
— As a favorite: 64-71-3
— As an underdog or pick ‘em: 41-31-3

1) Packers 23, Lions 22
— Detroit got inside Packers’ 10-yard line on first three drives, scored 13 points.
— Lions are 2-2-1 despite a +6 turnover ratio.
— Loss ends Detroit’s 4-game series win streak.

— Green Bay won despite a minus-3 turnover ratio (0-3).
— Packers outgained Detroit 447-229, but scored only 13 points on four red zone drives.
— Lions lost despite a 12-yard advantage in field position.