Cnotes MLB 2019 Thru the World Series News, Notes, Trends Best Bets and Opinions !

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

913ST LOUIS -914 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 47-22 SU (22.8 Units) after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games in the last 3 seasons.

915WASHINGTON -916 LA DODGERS
WASHINGTON is 77-47 SU (26.7 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.




MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 9

St. Louis @ Atlanta

Game 913-914
October 9, 2019 @ 5:02 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 16.957
Atlanta
(Fltynwcz) 15.553
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-115
8
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-105); Over

Washington @ LA Dodgers

Game 915-916
October 9, 2019 @ 8:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Strasburg) 18.554
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 17.150
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-150
7
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+130); Under




MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 9

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ST LOUIS (93 - 73) at ATLANTA (99 - 67) - 5:02 PM
JACK FLAHERTY (R) vs. MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 8-14 (-10.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
FLAHERTY is 28-34 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FLAHERTY is 13-21 (-11.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FLAHERTY is 14-19 (-13.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FLAHERTY is 16-23 (-12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 99-67 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 76-53 (+12.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 47-35 (+11.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 93-73 (+4.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-22 (+7.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
ST LOUIS is 37-23 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 73-57 (+3.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 33-46 (-25.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 6-4 (+2.3 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.5 Units)

JACK FLAHERTY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
FLAHERTY is 1-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.141.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-2. (-0.2 units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 4-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 6.30 and a WHIP of 1.525.
His team's record is 4-4 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-6. (-4.7 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (96 - 71) at LA DODGERS (108 - 58) - 8:37 PM
STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 178-151 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 10-14 (-10.2 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
WASHINGTON is 109-96 (-12.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 93-85 (-26.3 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 60-23 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 77-36 (+22.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
STRASBURG is 32-13 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
STRASBURG is 36-19 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 186-202 (-68.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 147-107 (-20.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 6-5 (-0.3 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.8 Units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
STRASBURG is 4-5 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.896.
His team's record is 4-8 (-6.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.0 units)

WALKER BUEHLER vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
BUEHLER is 1-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 1.96 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 9

National League
Cardinals @ Braves (2-2)
Flaherty is 3-1, 0.82 in his last six starts; he is 1-1, 4.32 in three starts vs Atlanta- he is 0-1, 3.86 in one playoff start.

Foltynewicz is 4-1, 1.50 in his last five starts; he is 3-4, 7.64 in seven starts vs St Louis, and is 1-1, 3.46 in three playoff starts.

St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are 5-5 in ten games with Atlanta this year, 3-2 in this ballpark- they scored only five runs in innings 1-7 in first four games of this series.

Atlanta is in playoffs for 2nd year in a row after a 4-year absence; they lost their last seven appearances in the NLDS, dating back to 2002. Both teams blew a late inning lead in last two series games.

Nationals @ Dodgers (2-2)
Strasburg is 2-0, 1.88 in his last four starts, and is 3-5, 2.54 in 11 starts vs LA. He is 3-2, 0.64 in five career playoff games (4 starts).

Buehler is 2-1, 3.13 in his last four starts and is 0-1, 3.38 in three games (2 starts) vs Washington- he is 1-1, 3.03 in five playoff starts.

Washington won the Wild Card game Tuesday, then scored only four runs when they split the first two games in LA; they’re in playoffs for fifth time in eight years. Nationals lost in NLDS last four times they were in playoffs, three times in a 5th game.

Dodgers are 6-5 vs Washington this year, 3-3 in games games played here. LA is in playoffs for 7th year in a row, losing the World Series the last two years. Under is 3-1 in this series.




MLB

Wednesday, October 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Atlanta's last 24 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Atlanta's last 14 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games
St. Louis is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 16 of St. Louis's last 24 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
St. Louis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
St. Louis is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 11 of St. Louis's last 14 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
LA Dodgers is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games
LA Dodgers is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
LA Dodgers is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of LA Dodgers's last 23 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Washington is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Washington's last 23 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

[StarDust Bum]

By: Rohit Ponnaiya

POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals (11-8, 2.75 ERA, $-665): There has been no better pitcher on the planet over the last three months than Flaherty. Over his last 17 starts he has a staggering 1.11 ERA with a WHIP of 0.73.

Despite such great individual numbers however the Cardinals are just 10-7 in those starts. The main reason for that: terrible run support. St. Louis is plating just 3.23 runs per game in those 17 contests.


3 STRIKES

BUY LOW, MARCELL ON A HIGH

The Cardinals have scored a modest 13 runs through the first four games of their series with the Braves but don't blame that lack of scoring on Marcell Ozuna. Ozuna has two hits in every game of this series, going an outstanding 8 for 17 at the plate with three doubles and two homers. He ended the regular season with two hits against the Cubs as well, which makes five consecutive multi-hit games for the Cards outfielder.

When the individual player props on this game drop, consider betting on for Ozuna to go Over on his hits and total bases.

WELCOME TO ATLANTA

The Cardinals might be just 1-7 over their last eight playoff games on the road, but their recent play suggests they might be able to reverse that trend in Game 5.

St. Louis is 7-3 in their previous 10 road games overall, and are 10-4 in their last 14 contests in Atlanta.

TO LIVE AND DIE IN L.A.

If history is any indication, home field advantage could play a big factor for the Dodgers in Game 5. The Dodgers are 55-19 in their last 74 home games, that includes going 28-11 in their previous 39 home tilts against teams with a winning record on the road.

When it comes to the head-to-head trends, the Nationals have gone 17-36 in their previous 53 road contests with the Dodgers. Washington is also just 1-4 in Strasburg's last five starts in L.A.

And for bettors looking to bet on a team total, consider this: The Nationals have been shut out in three of their last five games at Dodgers Stadium. The O/U on Washington's total is 3.


*****************************


NLDS Game 5 Essentials
Tony Mejia

St. Louis (-112/8) at Atlanta, 5:02 pm ET, TBS

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Atlanta 6-4, Under 6-4)

NLDS
Oct. 3 – Cardinals 7, Braves 6 (Over 9)
Oct. 4 – Braves 3, Cardinals 0 (Under 8.5)
Oct. 6 – Braves 3, Cardinals 1 (Under 8.5)
Oct. 7 – Cardinals 5, Braves 4 (Over 8)

St. Louis vs. Atlanta (SunTrust Park)
May 14 – Cardinals 14, Braves 3 (Over 9)
May 15 – Braves 4, Cardinals 0 (Under 10)
May 16 – Braves 10, Cardinals 2 (Over 10)

Atlanta vs. St. Louis (Busch Stadium)
May 24 – Braves 5, Cardinals 2 (Under 10)
May 25 – Cardinals 6, Braves 3 (Under 9 ½)
May 26 – Braves 4, Cardinals 3 (Under 9)

The Braves are hoping their 2019 season contains a 100th win. The NL East champs blew a Game 4 lead in St. Louis on Monday night, allowing the NL Central champion Cardinals at least one more game in a season where they’ve overcome numerous injuries and a slow start from top offseason acquisition Paul Goldschmidt. Facing a 4-3 deficit in the eighth, the Cards got an RBI single from Yadier Molina, who won it with a sacrifice fly in the 10th.

Despite being on the road for the deciding game, St. Louis enters as a slight favorite due to Jack Flaherty’s presence on the mound. The Cards’ 23-year-old ace has been named NL Pitcher of the Month for both August and September after going 7-2 with an 0.78 ERA to close the season and allowed less than a run per game since the All-Star break, joining Cards legend Bob Gibson and Chicago’s Jake Arrieta as the only pitchers ever to do that.

Home teams are just 13-19 in Game 5s in the divisional series round, which is an ominous stat for a Braves team that went 50-31 in Atlanta this season.

Flaherty lost Game 2 but pitched effectively, working seven innings in the 3-0 loss. He allowed a two-run homer to Adam Duvall in the seventh to spoil an otherwise excellent start, but the eight hits he surrendered were the second-most he’s given up this season. Flaherty was 1-0 in two regular-season starts against the Braves, working 12 innings of three-run ball. He’s had his issues at SunTrust Park, walking a season-high five batters in a 14-3 win on May 14. Freddie Freeman has gone 3-for-8 against the Cy Young candidate with a home run.

Mike Foltynewicz was the surprise winner when these teams played last Friday, winning the duel with Flaherty by pitching seven shutout innings of three-hit ball on an economical 81 pitches. The 28-year-old was demoted to the minors in June but was tremendous upon returning, winning six straight decisions before losing his final regular-season start. He was 2-5 with a 6.37 ERA before being sent down after struggling to find his form due to an injury in spring training. He worked on spotting his fastball in the minors and ended up 5-1 at Gwinnett before returning, so he’s been in an excellent groove and will look to pick up where he left off last week against the Redbirds.

Kolten Wong is almost certain to be in St. Louis’ lineup since he’s 5-for-11 against Foltynewicz with a homer and three doubles. Marcell Ozuna has a pair of homers against him while Molina, Dexter Fowler, Paul DeJong and Matt Carpenter have all gone deep once. Goldschmidt is batting just .190 against him (4-for-21) with no extra-base hits and 10 strikeouts.

Nearly everyone is expected to be available for this elimination game, so it will be interesting to see how quick the hook is for both starters as managers Mike Shildt and Brian Snitker look to manage their teams into the NLCS.

Miles Mikolas pitched the 10th to end up with the save and started Game 1 of this series, so he’s clearly someone Shildt trusts. Adam Wainwright pitched incredibly well early in his start, so the veteran Georgia native could get work. Closer Carlos Martinez threw a scoreless ninth in bouncing back from blowing a lead earlier in the series. The Braves have used lefty Max Fried out of the bullpen and saw ace Mike Soroka work seven innings of two-hit, one-run ball in his postseason debut, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him if Snitker feels he can work after a great Game 3 start.

The Braves are looking to end an NLCS drought that dates back to 2001, having lost seven straight NLDS matchups. The Cardinals are looking to make their first NLCS since 2014.


Washington at L.A. Dodgers (-163/7), 8:37 pm ET, TBS

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Los Angeles 6-5, Under 7-3-1)

NLDS
Oct. 3 – Dodgers 6, Nationals 0 (Under 7.5)
Oct. 4 – Nationals 4, Dodgers 2 (Under 7.5)
Oct. 6 – Dodgers 10, Nationals 4 (Over 9)
Oct. 7 – Nationals 6, Dodgers 1 (Under 8)

Washington vs. Los Angeles (Dodger Stadium)
May 9 – Nationals 6, Dodgers 0 (Under 7)
May 10 – Dodgers 5, Nationals 0 (Under 8 ½)
May 11 – Nationals 5, Dodgers 2 (Push 7)
May 12 – Dodgers 6, Nationals 0 (Under 7 ½)

Los Angeles vs. Washington (Nationals Park)
July 26 – Dodgers 4, Nationals 2 (Under 9 ½)
July 27 – Dodgers 9, Nationals 3 (Over 10 ½)
July 28 – Nationals 11, Dodgers 4 (Over 8 ½)

The Dodgers are hoping their run to a third straight World Series doesn’t end prematurely but face quite the challenge in even getting back to the NLCS. After struggling against Max Scherzer clear across the country in D.C. on Monday night, they’ll now have to deal with Stephen Strasburg back in L.A.

Walker Buehler, who is pitching on regular rest after throwing six shutout innings of one-hit ball in a 6-0 win in Game 1, will have Clayton Kershaw waiting in the wings if he struggles after working six frames in a Game 2 upset loss. Patrick Corbin is available to work a few innings if Strasburg struggles, but the plan is to have the Cy Young favorite work as long as he can go. Strasburg won the wild card game over the Brewers with three frames of scoreless relief and bounced back on a couple days rest to throw 85 pitches in last Friday’s win over Kershaw and the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine.

The Dodgers led the National League in runs scored (886) and posted 59 home victories, one behind Houston for most in all of baseball. Despite a magical year, it can all end prematurely if Strasburg has it going again. Only A.J. Pollock (7-for-14) and Justin Turner (4-for-14) have strong numbers against the San Diego native, with Pollock owning a homer, a triple, and two doubles against him. Kike Hernandez has two homers against Strasburg while Joc Pederson and Corey Seager have each gone deep once against him, but that trio is collectively 4-for-32 when facing the Nats’ star, with all the hits leaving the yard.

The Nationals wouldn’t have even made it this far had they not gotten a two-out hit from Juan Soto against Brewers’ closer Josh Hader in a 4-3 wild card win in which they capitalized on a costly error by Milwaukee rookie RF Trent Grisham. They cruised into the postseason as the top wild card after Atlanta ran away with the NL East and finished with the second-highest run differential in the National League (+149) behind Los Angeles, setting the stage for this winner-take-all game.

Strasburg is hoping his finest season doesn’t end prematurely as Washington is 23-12 in games he’s appeared in. In his three starts against the Dodgers this season, Strasburg gave up just four earned runs over 19 innings, striking out 26 and walking two.

The Dodgers lost both starts Buehler made against the Nats during the regular season but manager Dave Roberts still picked him over Kershaw to start L.A.’s postseason opener and had his faith rewarded through a dominant Game 1 performance. If he fails in this spot, that decision will undoubtedly be second-guessed, although Kershaw’s availability to work here could temper criticism. Nats star Anthony Rendon is 3-for-6 with two doubles against Buehler, while Brian Dozier and Victor Robles have each gone 3-for-5 with a homer and triple between them. Gerardo Parra also has a homer against him and is 13-for-41 with a homer against Kershaw, so there’s a chance we’ll see the 32-year-old lefty at some point.

Washington is looking for revenge for a 2016 NLDS loss that the Dodgers claimed in five games. The Nats haven’t reached an NLCS since moving to D.C. from Montreal in 2005 and have repeatedly come up short in this critical fifth game. If Strasburg has a gem in him, the Nats could end L.A.’s National League reign and pay off handsomely since their an underdog in the +160 range despite the presence of one of the game’s top pitchers.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 9
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

STL at ATL 05:02 PM
STL -103
U 7.5

WAS at LAD 08:37 PM
WAS +152
O 7.0

[StarDust Bum]

Kershaw blows late lead in latest October flop, Dodgers done
October 10, 2019
By The Associated Press

LOS ANGELES (AP) Clayton Kershaw might very well go into the Hall of Fame one day on the strength of his amazing regular-season success - dragging behind him a painful October history he would rather forget.

Another chapter to his playoff woes was added Wednesday night when the three-time Cy Young Award winner squandered a two-run lead with the Los Angeles Dodgers six outs from advancing to a fourth consecutive NL Championship Series.

Pitching in relief of effective starter Walker Buehler and looking to help seal Game 5 of the Division Series against Washington at home, Kershaw gave up homers on consecutive pitches to Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto that tied it 3-all in the eighth inning.

The wild-card Nationals won 7-3 after a grand slam in the 10th by former Dodger Howie Kendrick off Joe Kelly.

''Just a terrible feeling,'' Kershaw said.

Kershaw has been the heart and soul of the Dodgers almost since the time he arrived in Los Angeles as a 20-year-old touted prospect in 2008. While his body of work in the regular season is practically unmatched, he had a 4.33 ERA in the postseason - and that was before giving up two more runs Wednesday.

The left-hander entered in the seventh and struck out Adam Eaton on three pitches with two on to end the inning.

Kershaw, however, never got another out.

''I might not get over it,'' he said. ''I don't know.''

Kershaw also took the loss as a starter in Game 2 of this series at home, when he gave up three runs and six hits in six innings. He has nine career postseason wins, but has lost 11 times in 32 career outings.

''Everything people say is true right now about the postseason,'' Kershaw said.

If Rendon's home run to pull the Nationals within a run was a jolt to the system, the long ball from Soto, deep into the seats in right-center, was the gut punch. Kershaw crouched on the mound before Soto's drive even cleared the wall, removing his cap and turning his head to watch the ball land in the crowd.

Lifted by manager Dave Roberts for right-hander Kenta Maeda, Kershaw walked to the dugout with his head down, void of expression. He sat on the bench alone, slumped and sagging for a while, looking at the ground.

''He's a pro. He's probably the best pitcher of our generation, and for him to make himself available tonight, and got us out of a big spot right there,'' Roberts said. ''It just didn't work out. There's always going to be second-guessing when things don't work out. I'll take my chances on Clayton. ... It's a guy that I believe in, I trust, and it didn't work out.''

Kelly's struggles that followed were merely a continuation of a disappointing regular season, when the right-hander posted a 4.56 ERA in 51 1/3 innings. What was especially cruel for the Dodgers about watching Kelly struggle was that he was a key component out of a Boston Red Sox bullpen that held down Los Angeles in last year's World Series.

Kelly finished the season working his way through a mysterious lower-body injury that was essentially described as soreness.

The Dodgers dominated all season while winning a franchise-best 106 games and their seventh straight NL West title, but Washington was able to strike where they were most vulnerable. Los Angeles' bullpen was a roller-coaster due to inconsistent seasons form Kelly and closer Kenley Jansen, even if it did finish with an NL-best 3.78 ERA.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 10, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
7:07 PM Tampa Bay Rays Houston Astros Minute Maid Park


*********************************


MLB PLAYOFF'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD.

10/09/2019.......3-1-0.........75.00%......+12.10
10/08/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%......+4.90
10/07/2019.......3-5-0.........37.50%......-11.25
10/06/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/05/2019.......2-1-0.........66.67%.......+5.00
10/04/2019.......3-3-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/03/2019.......1-3-0.........25.00%........-9.65
10/02/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-1.35
10/01/2019...... 0-2-0........ 0.00%....... -10.50


Totals............15-18-0........ 45.45%...... -11.25


*****************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

10/09/2019.............1 - 0............+7.60...............1 - 1............-0.50................+7.10
10/08/2019.............1 - 0............+10.40.............0 - 1............-5.50................+4.90
10/07/2019.............2 - 0............+11.95.............0 - 4.............-22.00..............-10.05
10/06/2019.............0 - 0............+0.00...............1 - 1.............-0.50................-0.50
10/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.00...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+5.00
10/04/2019.............2 - 1.............+3.45..............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+12.95
10/03/2019.............1 - 1.............+1.35..............0 - 2.............-11.00..............-9.65
10/02/2019.............0 - 1..............-6.35..............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-1.35
10/01/2019.............0 - 1..............-5.00..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-10.50


Totals.....................7 - 5.............+18.40...........8 - 11.............-20.50...............-2.10

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Trends for this week’s NFL games:

— New England is 7-1 ATS in last eight games as a non-divisional home favorite.

— Jets are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC teams.

— Miami covered twice of last nine games vs NFC teams.

— Bengals are 9-3 in last 12 games as a road underdog.

— Dallas is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a non-divisional road favorite.

— Falcons covered three of last 16 games outside their division.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……

I had a good writeup all set for this spot today, then I watched the Dodgers’ game Wednesday night and had to start all over again…….

13) Nationals 7, Dodgers 3 (10)— Tough night for LA fans; Dodgers blew a 3-1 8th inning lead, giving up back/back home runs. Howie Kendrick hit a 10th inning grand slam for the win.

Clayton Kershaw has never allowed home runs on consecutive pitches in the regular season; it has happened to him twice in playoff games.

12) There have been two extra inning grand slams in playoff history; Howie Kendrick last night and Nelson Cruz in Game 2 of the 2011 ALCS.

Max Scherzer was at both games; he was the starter for the losing Tigers in that 2011 game.

Twins exercised Cruz’ $12M team option for 2020; the way he hit this year, that is a bargain.

11) Kendrick has played 14 years in the major league and has hit two grand slams, both of which came in extra innings.

10) Road teams are now 4-9 all-time in winner-take-all games that went to extra innings, with three of the four wins coming in the last four years.

9) Cardinals 13, Braves 1— St Louis is fourth team ever to score 10+ runs in an inning in a playoff game:

1929— Philadelphia A’s Game 4 of WS vs Chicago (B7)
1968— Detroit Game 6 of WS vs St Louis (T3)
2002— LA Angels Game 5 of ALCS vs Milwaukee (B7)
2019— St Louis Game 5 of NLDS vs Atlanta (T1)

8) Atlanta Braves hold a dubious major league record; they’re the only team to be eliminated from the playoffs at home for five consecutive seasons (2000-04).

7) Home teams in winner-take-all playoff games:
MLB— 56-60 (48.3%)
NHL— 133-91 (59.4%)
NBA— 177-62 (74.1%)

6) San Antonio Spurs have gone over their season win total 11 of the last 14 years.

5) Someone at the Westgate SuperBook wagered $5,000 at 8-1 odds this week that New England will finish the regular season 16-0.

4) Since 2016, teams coming off a loss are 5-21-1 ATS when playing the Patriots.

3) When Oregon trailed the Cal Bears 7-0 at halftime Saturday, it was the first scoreless 1st half for the Ducks since a 30-24 home loss to Indiana in 2004.

2) Why did the Houston Rockets used to be the NBA franchise worth the most money? Because Yao Ming played for Houston, and the Rockets’ resulting lucrative connection to China was worth a boatload of cash. Notice I said “was”

One critical tweet from Rockets’ GM Daryl Morey has turned the Chinese government against the NBA and it is unclear whether the damage can be undone, which is going to cost everyone associated with the league a lot of money. A lot. Mucho dinero.

1) There were reports Wednesday that NBA teams preparing for the 2020-21 season are thinking the salary cap could drop as much as 15% after this season, all because of one 6-word tweet.

[StarDust Bum]

[StarDust Bum]

951TAMPA BAY -952 HOUSTON
TAMPA BAY is 5-13 SU (-11.3 Units) in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.




MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 10

Tampa Bay @ Houston

Game 951-952
October 10, 2019 @ 7:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 15.518
Houston
(Cole) 16.939
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-270
7
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-270); Under




MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 10

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (99 - 68) at HOUSTON (109 - 57) - 7:07 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. GERRIT COLE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 189-140 (+26.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 25-13 (+12.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 80-67 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 129-95 (+20.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 117-70 (+30.9 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 79-72 (+21.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 22-14 (+10.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 7-10 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday this season.
HOUSTON is 70-46 (-10.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 32-25 (-10.1 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 90-73 (-20.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 46-40 (-17.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 6-5 (+3.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. HOUSTON since 1997
GLASNOW is 1-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.3 units)

GERRIT COLE vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
COLE is 1-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 0.990.
His team's record is 3-2 (-0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-2. (+0.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, October 10

American League
Rays @ Astros (2-2)
Glasnow is 0-1, 2.51 in his last five starts (16.2 IP); he is 1-1, 2.89 in two starts vs Houston, and is 0-1, 4.15 in one playoff start.

Cole is 6-0, 1.03 in his last six starts; he is 1-2, 4.05 in four starts vs Tampa Bay, and is 3-3, 3.19 in six playoff starts.

Rays are in playoffs for first time since 2013. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in the ALCS, winning their first one in 2008, losing the last three.

Houston is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won 2017 World Series, lost ALCS LY. Astros are 5-6 vs Tampa Bay this year; home side won nine of the 11 games, including all four games in this series. Lot of pressure on the heavily favored Astros here.




MLB

Thursday, October 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston Astros
Houston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Houston is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at HOU 07:07 PM

TB +249

O 7.0

[StarDust Bum]

Rays finally fold vs. Astros' aces
October 10, 2019
By The Associated Press

HOUSTON (AP) Unable to beat three aces in a row, the Tampa Bay Rays finally folded against Houston.

With baseball's most inexpensive roster, the young Rays tried all they could to avoid elimination again Thursday night. They started an infielder who had barely played in the last month, went to their bullpen early to bring in their own Cy Young Award winner and kept changing pitchers the way they had throughout the playoffs.

In the end, they couldn't win three straight AL Division Series games against a trio of Astros arms with a combined salary of $66 million - about the same as the entire Tampa Bay payroll.

Gerrit Cole struck out 10 more Rays in eight innings, following his 15-strikeout performance in Game 2, and Houston won 6-1 in the decisive Game 5 to advance to a third consecutive AL Championship Series.

Tampa Bay's outstanding season, meanwhile, is over.

After victories at home over Cy Young winners Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander to force this juicy series from Tropicana Field back to Minute Maid Park, the plucky Rays returned to Houston somewhat perturbed by a perceived lack of credit for what they had done.

Before winning Games 3 and 4 to extend the ALDS, they had already avoided an early exit by winning the wild-card game in Oakland.

''I don't know about everyone else, but I got annoyed of hearing about Houston this, Houston that. ... They weren't talking about us at all,'' said Blake Snell, last season's AL Cy Young Award winner.

''Everybody is counting us out already. They're making the schedule the Yankees and the Astros,'' shortstop Willy Adames said before Game 5.

Well, make way for the AL East champion Yankees and the AL West-winning Astros. Game 1 of the ALCS is Saturday night in Houston.

Except for a home run by journeyman second baseman Eric Sogard, in his first start since Sept. 14 because of lingering right foot discomfort, the Rays couldn't muster much against the major league strikeout leader who next month could become the third Cy Young Award winner on Houston's 2019 staff.

Cole set the tone by striking out the first two batters of the game. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow, like Cole a former Pirates pitcher before Pittsburgh traded away both right-handers in 2018, allowed hits to his first four batters - and all scored.

After Ji-Man Choi's single leading off the fourth for Tampa Bay's only other hit, Cole got 15 outs over the next 15 batters - benefiting from a double play after a walk in the seventh.

Tampa Bay pitching coach Kyle Snyder made a mound visit only three batters, and seven pitches, into the game.

Based on how Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman communicated things to teammates after they had back-to-back RBI hits in the first, Glasnow may have tipped some of his pitches while the crowd roared and twirled all those orange rally towels above their heads.

The 26-year-old right-hander threw 31 of 40 pitches for strikes and struck out three, but was done after 2 2/3 innings. Snell, the Game 2 loser who had a save in Game 4, took over for 1 1/3 innings before manager Kevin Cash used seven more relievers to finish the game - six of them didn't even throw a full inning.

Tampa Bay used at least five pitchers in every game, and an ALDS-record 31 overall in the five-game series.

Sogard, acquired in a July trade from Toronto, hadn't started since Sept. 14. His only playoff appearance before the ALDS finale had been as a pinch-hitter in Game 1 on Friday, when he had an RBI single.

Cash valued Sogard as a ''very high contact-oriented hitter'' and put him in the middle of the lineup batting fifth. He started at second base after rookie Brandon Lowe had started there the first four games.

But the Rays were down 4-0 before Sogard went deep to right on the first pitch of the second inning.

They never got any closer.

[StarDust Bum]

SCHEDULE FOR FRIDAY OCTOBER 11, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:08 PM Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals Busch Stadium

SCHEDULE FOR SATURDAY OCTOBER 12, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
4:08 PM Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals Busch Stadium
8:08 PM New York Yankees Houston Astros Minute Maid Park

SCHEDULE FOR SUNDAY OCTOBER 13, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
8:08 PM New York Yankees Houston Astros Minute Maid Park

SCHEDULE FOR MONDAY OCTOBER 14, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
12:00 PM St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Nationals Park

SCHEDULE FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 15, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
12:00 PM Houston Astros New York Yankees Yankee Stadium
12:00 PM St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Nationals Park

SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
12:00 PM Houston Astros New York Yankees Yankee Stadium
12:00 PM St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Nationals Park

SCHEDULE FOR THURSDAY OCTOBER 17, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home Site
12:00 PM Houston Astros New York Yankees Yankee Stadium


*********************************


MLB PLAYOFF'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD.


10/10/2019.......0-1-1..........0.00%........-5.00
10/09/2019.......3-1-0.........75.00%......+12.10
10/08/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%......+4.90
10/07/2019.......3-5-0.........37.50%......-11.25
10/06/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/05/2019.......2-1-0.........66.67%.......+5.00
10/04/2019.......3-3-0.........50.00%........-0.50
10/03/2019.......1-3-0.........25.00%........-9.65
10/02/2019.......1-1-0.........50.00%........-1.35
10/01/2019...... 0-2-0........ 0.00%....... -10.50


Totals............15-19-0........ 44.11%...... -16.25


*****************************


BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


10/10/2019.............0 - 1............-5.00................0 - 0............+0.00...............-5.00
10/09/2019.............1 - 0............+7.60...............1 - 1............-0.50................+7.10
10/08/2019.............1 - 0............+10.40.............0 - 1............-5.50................+4.90
10/07/2019.............2 - 0............+11.95.............0 - 4.............-22.00..............-10.05
10/06/2019.............0 - 0............+0.00...............1 - 1.............-0.50................-0.50
10/05/2019.............0 - 1.............-5.00...............2 - 0.............+10.00.............+5.00
10/04/2019.............2 - 1.............+3.45..............3 - 1.............+9.50...............+12.95
10/03/2019.............1 - 1.............+1.35..............0 - 2.............-11.00..............-9.65
10/02/2019.............0 - 1..............-6.35..............1 - 0.............+5.00...............-1.35
10/01/2019.............0 - 1..............-5.00..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-10.50


Totals.....................7 - 6.............+13.40...........8 - 11.............-20.50...............-7.10

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s 6-pack

Odds to win the NBA title this year:

3-1— Lakers

4-1— Clippers

5-1— Bucks

8-1— Warriors, Rockets, 76ers

12-1— Jazz

15-1— Celtics, Nuggets


Quote of the Day
“Nobody cares. Nobody cares about your feelings. Nobody cares if you’re hurt. Nobody cares if you’re broke, rich. Nobody cares. Who cares? Be you. Go to work. Peace.”
Cowboys’ DE DeMarcus Lawrence

Friday’s quiz
Tom Brady was drafted in the 18th round of the 1995 baseball draft by which major league team?

Thursday’s quiz
Tony Eason started, was replaced at QB by Steve Grogan in New England’s first Super Bowl, a 46-10 loss to Chicago.

Wednesday’s quiz
Burgess Meredith was famous for playing Rocky Balboa’s trainer in the Rocky movies; he was the Penguin on the old Batman TV series.

*******************

Friday’s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….

13) Astros 6, Rays 1— Clock strikes midnight for the Cinderella Rays, who took Houston to the brink in this series, but Astros scored four runs in the first inning and that was that. ALCS will be New York-Houston, which should be very interesting.

12) Astros’ ace Gerrit Cole had struck out at least one batter in 73 consecutive innings before he didn’t get a strikeout in the third inning last night; not only is that the longest such streak in the majors since 1961, the next highest streak was only 40 (Pedro Martinez, 1999).

11) Patriots 35, Giants 14— New England scored TD’s on a blocked punt and a fumble return; Giants also scored a TD on a fumble return. Game was 21-14 with 9:00 to play.

Total yardage was 427-213 NE; Giants had 10 first downs, four turnovers (-2).

10) South Point Casino in Las Vegas has interesting prop bets; what college team scores the first TD of the day, and then which team scores the most points.

Favorites for first TD:
7-1: Georgia, Oklahoma, Toledo
8-1: Indiana, Michigan

Favorite to score the most points Saturday: Louisiana Tech 8-1

9) Steph Curry scored 40 points in an exhibition game Thursday; Golden State has a much different roster as they open their new arena this fall- no Klay Thompson, Durant is gone, so there will be nights where Curry will have to go off for the Warriors to win.

8) Villanova/Seton Hall are the favorites to win Big East basketball this winter.

UCLA is picked to finish 8th in the Pac-12, which seems weird to type.

7) Over last 12 years, unbeaten NFL teams who are an underdog from Week 6 on are 7-6 ATS. 49ers fit that bill Sunday.

6) Pittsburgh Steelers apparently had a full-contract practice Wednesday, with the team 1-4 and sinking fast; that is unusual in the NFL. Looks like their #3 QB gets his first NFL start against the Chargers Sunday, in a game between two struggling franchises.

5) Phillies fired manager Gabe Kapler after two mediocre seasons where his players went in the tank on him in September both years. Oddly, the Phillies fired both trainers and their pitching coach, but invited all the other coaches back for next season.

If a new manager doesn’t get to pick his own coaches, that usually signals a bad job.

4) No idea why, but the last three years, San Jose State’s leading scorer has transferred out of the program all three years, which is why the Spartans are 9-45 in Mountain West games during that time.

Over the last 22 years, San Jose State has never won half its conference games, though they were 17-16 overall in 2010-11. Seems like a school in California should have at least some success.

3) UL-Monroe 24, Texas State 14— 3-3 WarHawks clinched the win/covered the spread with a TD with 1:46 left; Texas State completed 20-39 passes, but for only 92 yards.

2) 30 or so years ago, had some problems with my teeth and as a result I gave up Snickers bars, switching to the softer Three Musketeers candy bars.

This week, I had my first Snickers bars since then; they still taste great!!!

1) One of the best parts of coming to Las Vegas is meeting new people/making new friends, from all over the country. Thursday was a good day/night for that, making new friends from Ohio, New Jersey, Georgia and a few who live here in the desert. Overall, an excellent day.

[StarDust Bum]

NLCS - Nationals vs. Cardinals
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (St. Louis 5-2, Under 5-1-1)

St. Louis vs. Washington (Nationals Park)
April 29 – Cardinals 6, Nationals 3 (Over 8 ½)
April 30 – Cardinals 3, Nationals 2 (Under 9 ½)
May 1 – Cardinals 5, Nationals 1 (Under 7 ½)
May 2 – Nationals 2, Cardinals 1 (Under 8 ½)

Washington vs. St. Louis (Busch Stadium)
September 16 – Cardinals 4, Nationals 2 (Under 8)
September 17 – Nationals 6, Cardinals 2 (Push 8)
September 18 – Cardinals 5, Nationals 1 (Under 8)

The top two teams in the National League are watching the Championship Series from home as the Braves and Dodgers were each bounced at home in decisive Game 5’s of the Divisional Series. The two clubs still standing with the World Series as their next goal are the Cardinals and Nationals, who begin the NLCS at Busch Stadium.

Although Washington (93-69) finished with a better regular season record than St. Louis (91-71), the Cardinals have home-field advantage in the series due to them winning the National League Central title. The Nationals were four outs away from getting knocked out in the Wild Card round against the Brewers before Washington rallied for three runs in the eighth inning of a 4-3 shocker to advance to the NLDS.

The Nats took the two-time National League champion Dodgers to Game 5 and were on their way to elimination, but Washington pulled out another epic comeback. And they did this against three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw as the Nationals hit back-to-back homers off the Dodgers’ ace in a rare relief appearance off the bats of Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto to tie the game at 3-3. Howie Kendrick’s grand slam in the 10th inning put Washington ahead for good and lifted the Nats to a 7-3 victory and the franchise’s first ever playoff series win, which includes their history as the Montreal Expos dating back to 1969.

The Cardinals last won a World Series title in 2011 against the Rangers, while St. Louis is in the postseason for the first time since 2015. The Redbirds went back and forth in the NLDS against the Braves as each team split the first two games at SunTrust Park and Games 3 and 4 at Busch Stadium. St. Louis exploded for 10 runs in the first inning of the winner-take-all Game 5 in Atlanta as the Cardinals crushed the Braves, 13-1 to make their first NLCS appearance since 2014.

The starting pitching advantage lies with the Nationals, who are led by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Washington used both its aces in relief appearances during crucial wins early in the postseason, as Scherzer shut down the Dodgers in Game 4 of the NLDS as a -120 favorite, 6-1. The three-time Cy Young winner rebounded from a tough outing against the Brewers in the Wild Card victory to allow four hits and one earned run in seven innings as Washington is 2-3 in his five postseason starts.

Strasburg picked up a no-decision in the Game 5 triumph at Los Angeles as he gave up three earned runs in six innings. The right-hander beat the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS by striking out 10 batters in six innings of a 4-2 win as a +140 underdog. Since Strasburg threw 105 pitches on Wednesday, he will likely start again in Game 3 at Nationals Park on Monday night.

In two outings this season against the Cardinals, the Nationals went 1-1 with Strasburg starting, which included a 2-1 home victory on May 2 as he struck out nine batters in 6.2 innings of work. Scherzer, the St. Louis native, lost twice to his hometown squad in 2019 by exact 5-1 scores, as he was tagged for five runs in 6.2 innings on September 18 in spite of striking out 11 batters.

Veteran Anibal Sanchez will get the call to start the series opener for Washington as the hurler turned in a solid performance in Game 3 against the Dodgers. Sanchez yielded one run and four hits, while striking out nine batters in five innings, but the Dodgers exploded for seven runs in the sixth inning to erase a 2-1 deficit in a 10-4 runaway. The Nationals have won eight of Sanchez’s last 10 road starts since late May, including four victories as an underdog.

Adam Wainwright helped the Cardinals capture the 2006 championship as the team’s closer, but 13 years later, the right-hander will start the opener of the NLCS. Since July, St. Louis has won 13 of Wainwright’s past 17 outings, including a 5-1 home underdog triumph over Scherzer and the Nationals on September 18. In four of Wainwright’s previous five starts at Busch Stadium, he has not allowed a run, including in the 3-1 Game 3 loss to Atlanta in which the Braves scored all three of their runs in the ninth inning.

Jack Flaherty will never receive better run support than the 10-0 advantage taken by the Cardinals in the first inning of the Game 5 blowout in Atlanta. Flaherty helped the Cards clinch a spot in the NLCS by tossing six innings and striking out eight to turn in his 10th consecutive quality start since late August. St. Louis has compiled an 11-6 mark in his past 17 trips to the mound, including a 5-1 ledger at home, while allowing two earned runs or less 12 times during this span.

The Cardinals captured three of four meetings in D.C. back in late April/early May, including two wins as a road underdogs. St. Louis grabbed two of three matchups at Busch Stadium in mid-September, as five of the final six meetings finished UNDER the total. In their previous postseason get-together back in the 2012 NLDS, the Nationals were ready to close out the Cardinals in Game 5 by jumping out to a 6-0 lead. St. Louis kept chipping away and scored four runs in the ninth inning to stun Washington, 9-7, but the Cardinals were ousted by the eventual World Champion Giants in the NLCS.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Dunkel

Friday, October 11


Washington @ St. Louis

Game 901-902
October 11, 2019 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Sanchez) 17.720
St. Louis
(Mikolas) 18.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-130
8
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-130); Under




MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, October 11

Nationals @ Cardinals
Sanchez is 3-0, 2.63 in his last four starts; he is 2-4, 3.44 in eight starts vs St Louis, and is 2-5, 2.98 in nine playoff games (8 playoff starts).

Mikolas is 1-1, 3.03 in his last six games (5 starts); he is 2-2, 4.85 in five games (4 starts) vs Washington, and is 1-0, 1.50 in two playoff games (1 start).

Washington won the NLDS in dramatic fashion Wednesday, they’re 12-2 in last 14 games overall, and are in NLCS for the time since 1981, when they were the Montreal Expos. Nationals are 2-5 vs St Louis this season, losing three of four games here.

St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are in NLCS for first time since 2014.




MLB

Friday, October 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 9 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Washington
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Washington is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Washington is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis


-------------------------------------------------------


901WASHINGTON -902 ST LOUIS
WASHINGTON is 28-11 SU (17.7 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season in the current season.




MLB
Long Sheet

Friday, October 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (97 - 71) at ST LOUIS (94 - 73) - 8:08 PM
ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. MILES MIKOLAS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 179-151 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 48-50 (-18.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 21-28 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 21-25 (-15.5 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 110-96 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 94-85 (-24.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 94-73 (+5.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 21-11 (+10.0 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
ST LOUIS is 74-57 (+4.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 281-187 (+63.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
MIKOLAS is 42-23 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 27-39 (-22.7 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 5-2 (+4.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+3.8 Units)

ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
SANCHEZ is 2-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.44 and a WHIP of 1.228.
His team's record is 2-6 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.7 units)

MILES MIKOLAS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
MIKOLAS is 2-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.325.
His team's record is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)