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Hot & Not Report - Sides
April 29, 2019
By YouWager.eu
Who's Hot and Who's Not - MLB Sides
Week of April 29th
The MLB season is about a month long now, as teams all across the league are approaching the 30-game mark. Fans and bettors have a much better understanding of the identities these teams are trying to forge in 2019, and while there have still been some surprises on both the high (San Diego) and low (Boston) end of things in the early standings, there is still plenty of time for those teams to regress in either direction.
A full month's worth of data also means that this year's numbers should be weighed incrementally more in your projections relative to preseason prognostications, and in a data-driven sport like MLB, more data can end up being your friend.
It still doesn't hurt to ride the hot hand at times - or look for value in going the other way of streaks – as everyone knows that every year in baseball we see teams go on prolonged runs and/or slumps, and sometimes any little situational edge you can grasp on to can prove beneficial to your bankroll.
With that in mind, here are a few situational roles where certain MLB teams have been riding high or very low with their results, with home cooking being the common denominator.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Who's Hot
AL West teams at home – 45-31 SU; +17.45 units
If you've followed the simple idea of backing whichever AL West team – LA Angels, Houston, Seattle, Oakland, Texas – that's at home on a given night, you'd find yourself 14 games over the .500 mark entering Monday's play, and up about 17.5 units if you are risking the same amount on underdogs as you are trying to win on favorites. That's quite a haul, especially when you consider that two of those games – both lost by the designated home team Oakland – were played in Japan as well. You would eliminate another two losses there if only playing games that were stateside, and the profit would be close to 20 units.
Bettors can thank the Texas Rangers for the big haul as they are 10-4 SU at home so far for +11 units. The Rangers have used a consistent offensive attack to pile up the home victories despite a starting rotation that was often ridiculed harshly coming into the season. You don't hear much chatter about that rotation being “one of the worst in baseball” anymore, and it just goes to show you how fickle and day-to-day the majority of bettors can be. That rotation is still sub-par overall though, and Texas is probably a great candidate to become a fade at home as they'll likely regress some, but as the second biggest money earner in the MLB market to date, bettors that have been willing to jump on the Rangers at home this year have built their baseball bankrolls a nice cushion for the rest of the year.
Seattle is actually the 3rd best money-earner overall in MLB (+6.74 units), but they are also the only one of these five AL West teams that's got a losing record SU and in terms of money at home. Seattle's 7-9 SU run on their own field has equated to a loss of 0.73 units in the market, as they Mariners have done all their big cashing on the road. But similar to Texas, I would expect Seattle's win rate at home to rise up and their rate on the road to drop over the next month or so. How that relates to value in backing the Mariners we shall see, but after a quick two-game home set with the Cubs starting on Tuesday, it's another extremely tough 10-game road trip for Seattle (Cleveland, Yankees, Boston) where we probably do end up seeing that road record slip somewhat.
The best team in the AL West at home outside of Texas has been the team that shares a State with the Rangers. Houston's 10-3 SU record at home has only produced about 5.5 units of profit so far as they are often quite chalky home favorites, but you can't complain about any number of units that have a positive sign beside them.
Houston does have the majority of their games at home over the next month, and with teams like Texas, Kansas City, and the Chicago White Sox on tap in those games, you'd better be willing and prepared to lay some chalky numbers on the Astros if you are hoping they continue this run at home. Houston would be the team I'd be least concerned about in terms of a big slip downwards to approach the .500 mark of any of the AL West teams, but picking your spots when lines are up there can be just as good.
The last two AL West teams are Oakland (10-8 SU @ home for +1 unit) and LA Angels (8-7 SU @ home for +0.6 units) and they are two squads that remain good candidates to protect their home park as often as teams competing to be around .500 can expect. The Angels got hot early on their own diamond before cooling off lately, and Oakland's record is a little skewed as it was them who 'hosted' those games in Japan.
But to have a whole division be such a good bet in such a generic condition like just simply being at home, has been a pleasant surprise to bettors who've gotten behind one, most, or all of these AL West teams in that role.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Who's Not
AL East teams at home – 32-39 SU; -27.5 units
While seeing four of five AL West teams be profitable at home through a month of the season has been a pleasant surprise, to see all five AL East teams be such a bad bet at home has been shocking. But that's how high-priced home favorite lines cam get you in money line sports like MLB and you don't have to turn anywhere but the AL East division to see that playing out in real time.
In terms of the actual SU record, both Tampa and the New York Yankees actually have winning records at home (9-7 and 8-7 respectively), but Tampa's still down a full unit in the market in that role, and the Yankees and their “Yankees tax” - in regards to inflated home prices – have lost bettors nearly 8.6 units at home. Obviously, Yankees fans will have the injury-excuse at the ready when you bring up the early season struggles they went through, but chances are this could end up being the norm for New York this year. They could finish 20 games over .500 at home and still have a tough time turning a profitable season in the betting market.
The same can be said for this Boston Red Sox team who have just been marred in this 'championship hangover' for too long. The 5-7 SU record at home doesn't look too horrible, and to have the defending champs start the year on an 11-game road trip did them no favors, but that difference of just two losses in the W/L column has translated to -9 units overall in the market. They are another big market, highly popular team that oddsmakers have no quarrels about inflating the line every shade they can get away with, as even with a huge turnaround the rest of the way, Boston's going to have a tough time turning a profit at home this season.
The remaining teams in this division are Baltimore (3-10 SU, -6.3 units) and Toronto (7-8 SU, -2.5 units) as both franchises are in the tear down stages of what should presumably be rebuilds within the organization. But those numbers are still coming after a team like the Jays just swept Oakland over the weekend to add three wins and 3+ units to that tally. Things could even look that much worse for these AL East teams at home when you think about it.
Going forward, I would expect Boston and New York to start piling up home wins as the weather warms up (and they get healthy), although prices in the market will never be cheap on them so keep that in mind as well. Given both the preseason prognostications and the first month of play, it's probably the Tampa Bay Rays who end 2019 as the best team to back at home from this division, as they'll be the ones that should consistently provide the best value.
April 29, 2019
By YouWager.eu
Who's Hot and Who's Not - MLB Sides
Week of April 29th
The MLB season is about a month long now, as teams all across the league are approaching the 30-game mark. Fans and bettors have a much better understanding of the identities these teams are trying to forge in 2019, and while there have still been some surprises on both the high (San Diego) and low (Boston) end of things in the early standings, there is still plenty of time for those teams to regress in either direction.
A full month's worth of data also means that this year's numbers should be weighed incrementally more in your projections relative to preseason prognostications, and in a data-driven sport like MLB, more data can end up being your friend.
It still doesn't hurt to ride the hot hand at times - or look for value in going the other way of streaks – as everyone knows that every year in baseball we see teams go on prolonged runs and/or slumps, and sometimes any little situational edge you can grasp on to can prove beneficial to your bankroll.
With that in mind, here are a few situational roles where certain MLB teams have been riding high or very low with their results, with home cooking being the common denominator.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Who's Hot
AL West teams at home – 45-31 SU; +17.45 units
If you've followed the simple idea of backing whichever AL West team – LA Angels, Houston, Seattle, Oakland, Texas – that's at home on a given night, you'd find yourself 14 games over the .500 mark entering Monday's play, and up about 17.5 units if you are risking the same amount on underdogs as you are trying to win on favorites. That's quite a haul, especially when you consider that two of those games – both lost by the designated home team Oakland – were played in Japan as well. You would eliminate another two losses there if only playing games that were stateside, and the profit would be close to 20 units.
Bettors can thank the Texas Rangers for the big haul as they are 10-4 SU at home so far for +11 units. The Rangers have used a consistent offensive attack to pile up the home victories despite a starting rotation that was often ridiculed harshly coming into the season. You don't hear much chatter about that rotation being “one of the worst in baseball” anymore, and it just goes to show you how fickle and day-to-day the majority of bettors can be. That rotation is still sub-par overall though, and Texas is probably a great candidate to become a fade at home as they'll likely regress some, but as the second biggest money earner in the MLB market to date, bettors that have been willing to jump on the Rangers at home this year have built their baseball bankrolls a nice cushion for the rest of the year.
Seattle is actually the 3rd best money-earner overall in MLB (+6.74 units), but they are also the only one of these five AL West teams that's got a losing record SU and in terms of money at home. Seattle's 7-9 SU run on their own field has equated to a loss of 0.73 units in the market, as they Mariners have done all their big cashing on the road. But similar to Texas, I would expect Seattle's win rate at home to rise up and their rate on the road to drop over the next month or so. How that relates to value in backing the Mariners we shall see, but after a quick two-game home set with the Cubs starting on Tuesday, it's another extremely tough 10-game road trip for Seattle (Cleveland, Yankees, Boston) where we probably do end up seeing that road record slip somewhat.
The best team in the AL West at home outside of Texas has been the team that shares a State with the Rangers. Houston's 10-3 SU record at home has only produced about 5.5 units of profit so far as they are often quite chalky home favorites, but you can't complain about any number of units that have a positive sign beside them.
Houston does have the majority of their games at home over the next month, and with teams like Texas, Kansas City, and the Chicago White Sox on tap in those games, you'd better be willing and prepared to lay some chalky numbers on the Astros if you are hoping they continue this run at home. Houston would be the team I'd be least concerned about in terms of a big slip downwards to approach the .500 mark of any of the AL West teams, but picking your spots when lines are up there can be just as good.
The last two AL West teams are Oakland (10-8 SU @ home for +1 unit) and LA Angels (8-7 SU @ home for +0.6 units) and they are two squads that remain good candidates to protect their home park as often as teams competing to be around .500 can expect. The Angels got hot early on their own diamond before cooling off lately, and Oakland's record is a little skewed as it was them who 'hosted' those games in Japan.
But to have a whole division be such a good bet in such a generic condition like just simply being at home, has been a pleasant surprise to bettors who've gotten behind one, most, or all of these AL West teams in that role.
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Who's Not
AL East teams at home – 32-39 SU; -27.5 units
While seeing four of five AL West teams be profitable at home through a month of the season has been a pleasant surprise, to see all five AL East teams be such a bad bet at home has been shocking. But that's how high-priced home favorite lines cam get you in money line sports like MLB and you don't have to turn anywhere but the AL East division to see that playing out in real time.
In terms of the actual SU record, both Tampa and the New York Yankees actually have winning records at home (9-7 and 8-7 respectively), but Tampa's still down a full unit in the market in that role, and the Yankees and their “Yankees tax” - in regards to inflated home prices – have lost bettors nearly 8.6 units at home. Obviously, Yankees fans will have the injury-excuse at the ready when you bring up the early season struggles they went through, but chances are this could end up being the norm for New York this year. They could finish 20 games over .500 at home and still have a tough time turning a profitable season in the betting market.
The same can be said for this Boston Red Sox team who have just been marred in this 'championship hangover' for too long. The 5-7 SU record at home doesn't look too horrible, and to have the defending champs start the year on an 11-game road trip did them no favors, but that difference of just two losses in the W/L column has translated to -9 units overall in the market. They are another big market, highly popular team that oddsmakers have no quarrels about inflating the line every shade they can get away with, as even with a huge turnaround the rest of the way, Boston's going to have a tough time turning a profit at home this season.
The remaining teams in this division are Baltimore (3-10 SU, -6.3 units) and Toronto (7-8 SU, -2.5 units) as both franchises are in the tear down stages of what should presumably be rebuilds within the organization. But those numbers are still coming after a team like the Jays just swept Oakland over the weekend to add three wins and 3+ units to that tally. Things could even look that much worse for these AL East teams at home when you think about it.
Going forward, I would expect Boston and New York to start piling up home wins as the weather warms up (and they get healthy), although prices in the market will never be cheap on them so keep that in mind as well. Given both the preseason prognostications and the first month of play, it's probably the Tampa Bay Rays who end 2019 as the best team to back at home from this division, as they'll be the ones that should consistently provide the best value.
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