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**Udog** · 10-08-2018, 09:45 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top 6 picks in Week 5 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest (3,123 entries)

1) Ravens, -3 (1,014)- L

2) Rams -7 (873)- L

3) Titans -3.5 (811)- L

4) Cardinals +4 (759)- W

5) Redskins +6.5 (757)

6) Broncos +1 (712)- L

Season record: 13-14-2

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Browns 12, Ravens 9 OT— Cleveland is 2-2-1, with all five games decided by 4 or fewer points; Browns have 15 takeaways, are +7 in turnovers. There was only one TD in this game; Browns missed PAT after that one. Ravens are now 6-10-1 in last 17 games as road favorites; they’re 3-0 when scoring 26+ points, 0-2 when they don’t. Under is 4-1 in Cleveland games

Lions 31, Packers 23— Brutal day for Green Bay K Crosby, who missed four FGs and a PAT; in first half, Packers had ball five times- three missed FG’s, two fumbles. Green Bay outgained Lions 521-264, but Detroit had huge 25-yard edge in field position. Lions covered their last four games; four of their five games went over. Detroit was perfect (28 pts/4 trips) in red zzone.

Panthers 33, Giants 31— Graham Gano kicked a 63-yard FG at the gun and Carolina recovered a muffed punt in end zone for a TD as they improved to 3-1. What were odds that Odell Beckham would throw a TD pass before he caught one this year? He did both in this game. Giants scored 31 points without converting on 3rd down (0-7); they had three turnovers (-1).

Chiefs 30, Jaguars 14— Jacksonville threw 61 passes, ran ball 17 times; I’m sure Tom Coughlin loved that. Jaguars had ball in red zone five times, scored only one TD— four empty trips to red zone in one game!!! Chiefs covered nine of last 11 as a home favorite; they had five takeaways (+3), two more than they had in first four games combined. Chiefs play Patriots next week.

Bengals 27, Dolphins 17— Miami led 17-3 after third quarter; Cincy scored three TD’s in fourth quarter, two of them by defense- an 18-yard fumble return with 2:37 left covered the spread. Miami is now 10-18 in last 28 games as road underdogs. There were five TD’s in this game, one for each offense- Miami ran a punt back for a TD. Cincy’s offense is suspect without TE Eifert.

Vikings 23, Eagles 21— Game was 3-3 when a sack/fumble was run back 64 yards for a TD that put Minnesota ahead to stay; Vikings scored only one offensive TD, tried five FG’s (two missed), but they hung on for win, avenging loss in LY’s playoffs. Eagles scored TD down 20-6 with 12:05 left; for whatever reason, they went for 2, which NEVER happens, but they made it. All five Eagle games this season were decided by 6 or fewer points.

Steelers 41, Falcons 17— Roethlisberger tried really, really hard to get ball to Antonio Brown in this game; he targeted Brown 13 times, completed only six, but for 101 yards. Big Ben threw an awful INT in end zone at end of first half, but Steelers dominated second half. Falcons allowed 43-37-41 points in their last three games.

Here is a breakdown of Atlanta’s offense:
2 road games, both on grass fields: 22 drives, three TD’s
3 road games, all indoors on turf: 30 drives, 13 TD’s

Rams 33, Seahawks 31— LA receivers Cooks/Kupp were both KO’d in first half (concussions) but Rams scored 16 points in second half anyway, gaining 194 yards on 23 plays on three scoring drives on first three 2nd half drives, then killing clock for final 3:28 on last drive. Gurley scored three TD’s for Rams. Seattle ran ball for 190 yards, gave it their very best shot here. Seahawks are 8-2 vs spread in last ten games as home underdogs.

Bills 13, Titans 12— Only one TD in this game, and that was on a 47-yard drive by Bills; Buffalo has one TD on 20 drives in its last two games- when was last time an NFL team won a game with only 79 passing yards? Tennessee’s last four games were decided by total of 10 points; Titans turned ball over six times (-3) in their two losses, one time (+1) in their three wins.

Jets 34, Broncos 16— Jets ran ball for 323 yards, which doesn’t happen much in NFL games; they had TD plays of 77,76 yards in first 5:00 of second quarter. Gang Green is now 7-2-1 in last ten games as home underdogs; Denver is 7-11-2 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or fewer points. Jets led 24-10 at half; they had total of 31 first half points in first four games.

Chargers 26, Raiders 10— With 1:05 left in third quarter and down 20-3, Carr threw an awful INT in end zone, ending Oakland’s day. Team that won field position won all five Raider games. Chargers averaged 11.9 yards/pass play; they won field position in last two games by 19-14 yards. Bolts are +5 in turnovers in last four games; they had 14-yard edge in field position here.

Cardinals 28, 49ers 18— Cardinals are 12-4 vs spread in last 16 NFC West road games; they’ve won last seven games vs 49ers, but these were Arizona’s four TD’s Sunday:

— Arizona’s first offensive play was a 75-yard TD pass.
— 18 yards, four plays after a 49er fumble.
— Defensive touchdown
— 26 yards, five plays after a 49er INT.

San Francisco was -5 (0-5) in turnovers; hard to win that way.

Texans 19, Cowboys 16 OT— Houston outgained Cowboys 462-292, but scored only one TD on six red zone drives. Dallas is 19-60 on third down this year; they’ve scored only seven TD’s on 49 drives, 33 points on last eight red zone drives. Cowboys are desperate for an explosive WR; other than RB Elliott (7 targets), no other Cowboy had more than four targets.

**Udog** · 10-08-2018, 10:17 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 8

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta

Game 919-920
October 8, 2018 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Hill) 17.663
Atlanta
(Fltynwcz) 14.985
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
N/A

Boston @ NY Yankees

Game 913-914
October 8, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
(Eovaldi) 15.945
NY Yankees
(Severino) 18.428
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-175
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-175); Over

Houston @ Cleveland

Game 915-916
October 8, 2018 @ 1:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Keuchel) 16.012
Cleveland
(Clevnger) 14.932
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
-125
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+105); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 8

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BOSTON (109 - 55) at NY YANKEES (102 - 63) - 7:35 PM
RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. LUIS SEVERINO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 99-66 (+22.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEVERINO is 27-9 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
BOSTON is 109-55 (+31.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 51-30 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
BOSTON is 53-25 (+17.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 87-39 (+30.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
NY YANKEES are 59-44 (-21.0 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 11-10 (+1.0 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
12 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.6 Units)

RICK PORCELLO vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
PORCELLO is 10-9 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.23 and a WHIP of 1.124.
His team's record is 12-11 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-13. (-7.6 units)

LUIS SEVERINO vs. BOSTON since 1997
SEVERINO is 4-6 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.95 and a WHIP of 1.090.
His team's record is 6-6 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.2 units)

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HOUSTON (105 - 59) at CLEVELAND (91 - 73) - 1:35 PM
DALLAS KEUCHEL (L) vs. MIKE CLEVINGER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 41-35 (-13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
KEUCHEL is 4-10 (-9.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 144-71 (+36.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 57-24 (+24.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 154-76 (+35.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 41-15 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
CLEVELAND is 91-73 (-26.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 25-36 (-23.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVINGER is 16-16 (-8.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 6-3 (+2.9 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
6 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.9 Units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
KEUCHEL is 4-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.163.
His team's record is 5-2 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

MIKE CLEVINGER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
CLEVINGER is 1-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.98 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 1-3 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

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LA DODGERS (94 - 72) at ATLANTA (91 - 74) - 4:35 PM
RICH HILL (L) vs. MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 7-3 (+2.2 Units) against ATLANTA this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.9 Units, Under=-0.5 Units)

RICH HILL vs. ATLANTA since 1997
HILL is 5-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.76 and a WHIP of 0.957.
His team's record is 6-1 (+5.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 1-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.43 and a WHIP of 1.725.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 8

National League
Dodgers (93-72) @ Braves (91-73) (Dodgers lead series, 2-1)
Hill is 5-0, 3.90 in his last five starts; over is 7-1 in his last eight. LA scored 59 runs in those games. Team in his starts: 13-10, 7-5 road. Hill blanked Atlanta for seven innings here back on July 26.
5-inning record: 10-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-23

Foltynewicz is 2-2, 6.16 in his last four starts; under is 8-5 in his last 13. Team in his starts: 15-17, 7-9 home He is 0-2, 10.29 in two starts vs LA this season.
5-inning record: 17-10-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-32

Braves lost six of their last eight games; teams that lose first two games of a playoff series, then win Game 3, are 16-16 in Game 4. Braves are in playoffs for first time since 2013. Dodgers won six last seven games, 12 of last 16 games. LA is in playoffs for sixth year in row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.

American League
Boston (109-55) @ New York (102-63) (series tied, 1-1)
Eovaldi is 1-0, 1.80 in his last four appearances (20 IP). Under is 6-5 in his Boston starts. Team in his starts: 5-6, 2-4 road For the Red Sox, he’s allowed one in 16 IP vs New York.
5-inning record: 5-5-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-11

Severino is 2-1, 1.66 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Team in his starts: 25-8, 14-1 home
5-inning record: 21-8-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-33

New York is 11-5 in its last 16 games, 5-2 in last seven home games. Red Sox are 4-6 in their last ten games, 2-4 in last six on road; Boston is 11-10 vs New York this season; 3-6 in the Bronx.

New York is in playoffs for third time in last six years; they haven’t been to a World Series since 2009. Red Sox are in playoffs for third year in row; they won World Series in 2013. Both managers here are rookie managers.

Astros (105-59) @ Indians (91-73) (Astros lead series, 2-0)
Keuchel is 1-1, 5.76 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Team in his starts: 19-15, 12-6 road. He is 0-1, 4.91 in two starts vs Cleveland this year.
5-inning record: 15-15-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 11-34

Clevinger is 2-0, 1.53 in his last three starts; under is 8-5-1 in his last 14. Team in his starts: 16-16, 10-7 home
5-inning record: 11-14-7 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-32

Astros are 5-3 vs Cleveland this year, 1-2 in this ballpark- they’re in playoffs for 3rd year in row. Tribe hasn’t won World Series since 1948, but Francona won two WS titles with the Red Sox. Cleveland won a terrible AL Central; they scored three runs in first two games of this series. Astros won World Series LY; they’re in playoffs for third time in four years. Houston won 10 of its last 12 games.

MLB
Weather Report

Monday, October 8

MLB

Monday, October 8

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Trend Report
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Houston Astros
Houston is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Houston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Houston is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Indians
Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Houston
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Houston
Cleveland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Houston
Cleveland is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers

Boston Red Sox
Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Boston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games on the road
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
Boston is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
NY Yankees is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 9 games
NY Yankees is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games at home
NY Yankees is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
NY Yankees is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Boston
NY Yankees is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

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**Udog** · 10-08-2018, 12:32 PM

POSTSEASON STARTER STAT OF THE DAY

Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves (13-10, 2.85 ERA, -$203)

Folty was completely faulty in Game 1 of the Braves' National League Division Series with the Dodgers, surrendering four runs over two innings while issuing three walks and giving up a pair of home runs. It was his second bad outing in a four-start stretch; he gave up two homers in that one, as well, and has allowed 13 runs over 19 innings in his last four turns.

The Dodgers have had Foltynewicz's number this season, torching him for eight runs – including four homers – in a pair of head-to-head meetings. With a spot in the NLCS just one win away, Los Angeles is a good pick to win SU (-145) or on the runline (+110).

Consider Going Even Lower

We've established the Astros and Indians as a great Under play at the current number – but there's a strong trend foundation to support an alternate total wager. For starters, Houston has averaged just 5.4 combined runs in its last seven road games. Also, the Indians have gone below the number in 14 of their previous 21 postseason games; 13 of those saw six or fewer combined runs.

The Under-7.5 play is an intriguing +125, while the Under-6.5 option pays out at +215; both are worth considering Monday.

Over The Hill

The Dodgers-Braves total should see plenty of betting attention, particularly after the teams combined to produce 11 total runs in Game 3 following a pair of Los Angeles shutouts in Games 1 and 2. Dodgers starter Rich Hill has been one of the top Over plays in baseball this season, with Los Angeles exceeding the total in 19 of his 25 regular-season starts.

Hill's incredible Over trend, combined with Foltynewicz's recent struggles, make this game a prime target for an over-8 bet (+100); the Over-8.5 option worth a slightly higher +110, but takes the push out of play.

Winters Of Their Discontent

Mike Winters is probably the last man Boston wants to see behind home plate for Game 3 at Yankee Stadium – and yet, there he'll be. The Red Sox have two significant umpire trends working against them here: they're an incredible 7-19 in Winters' last 26 games calling balls and strikes, while the home team is 31-15 in his previous 46 games behind the dish.

Combined with the starter advantage New York has, the Yankees are worth a long look on the run line (+110).

Announcement

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/8

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/8

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