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**Udog** · 07-15-2018, 11:36 PM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Most 3-pointers made in player’s first 2 years in NBA:

1- Damian Lillard (403)

2- Buddy Hield (324)

3- Klay Thompson (322)

4- Stephen Curry (317)

5- Damon Stoudamire (309)

6- Kyle Korver (307)

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports weekend…….

13) 7,874 players entered the Main Event at World Series of Poker; first prize was $8.8M, and the last two guys played heads-up for 10.5 hours and 199 hands before a winner was decided. I tried to stay up for the whole thing, but eventually, I came to my senses.

12) Around 4:40am, ESPN’s hole card camera went down; without that, watching poker on TV is like watching paint dry, but it came back on after a few hands. Analyst Antonio Esfandiari had to leave in the middle because he was playing in a $1M buy-in tournament on Sunday and needed his rest. I wasn’t involved in any million dollar stuff, so I stayed up for a while and watched.

11) At 5:05 am, one of the players, who was wearing a Tim Tebow Florida jersey, was doing jumping jacks during a commercial. He had a Russell Wilson Seahawks jersey on the other night, which made me want to root against him. He finished second, and won $5M, so they were actually playing for $3.8M and the gold bracelet.

10) They were advertising a pay site where you could watch poker tournament 100 days a year. Do other poker players watch these tournaments to scout opponents or to learn stuff? Why else would you pay to watch poker tournaments?

9) Home Run Derby used to be a daytime thing; they had no idea what they had. On the other hand, has the popularity of Home Run Derby hurt the actual All-Star Game?

8) Judge-Trout-Stanton skipping out on HR Derby reminds me of when the NBA had this great 1-on-1 contest for two years in the early 70’s— it was awesome, until Julius Erving’s agent would not let him play, figuring he had nothing to gain by participating.

Dr J’s skipping the event pretty much put the kibosh on it, which was too bad, since it was great theater. Portland’s Larry Steele made the Final Four of the tournament one year; good for him, but no one was turning on their TV to watch Larry freakin’ Steele play 1-on-1.

(No offense to Larry Steele, but you get the point)

The games were to 20, had to win by more than 2 points, I think. May not have this 100% right, but pretty sure Bob Lanier, a 6-11 lefty center won a game 50-46, I think over Connie Hawkins, who was a similar player to Giannis Antetokounmpo in today’s game.

ESPN Classic should run those games back; pretty sure they were on ABC.

7) Could you imagine a Westbrook-Durant matchup in a 1-on-1 tournament on national TV? How great would that be?

7) Tampa Bay C Wilson Ramos tweaked his hamstring Saturday and is likely headed to the DL. Salvador Perez is now the AL starter behind the plate.

5) If you’re the St Louis Cardinals, how do you not hire Joe Girardi as manager, unless you acknowledge that today’s ballplayers are so soft that you have to hire a manager who doesn’t criticize players as much as they sometimes need to be criticized?

4) Miami pitcher Jose Urena put his glove over his mouth during a mound conference during Sunday’s game, which made me think: Are there bilingual lip readers?

3) I’m going to run a couple of lists during the All-Star break about my favorite movies; I’m a big fan of John Grisham’s books, but none of those movies made my non-sports movie list, so I’ll point out here that my two favorite Grisham movies are Runaway Jury and the Pelican Brief.

2) Mets TV guy Gary Cohen was openly questioning Sunday why Jose Reyes is playing every day; you don’t get a lot of stuff like that on local TV broadcasts. Honesty.

Speaking of the Mets, my friend Bob reports that Michael Conforto’s career batting average in Met wins in .328, in Met losses .176. Of the 3,300 players with 500+ plate appearances since 1900, that is the widest difference in batting average between wins and losses.

1) Always wanted to research this, but never have; the %age of first-pitch swings the day before the All-Star break, as opposed to all the other days. You know guys have their bags packed for their 4-day vacations. Umpires, too.

**Udog** · 07-15-2018, 11:40 PM

Sizing up the sluggers and betting odds for the 2018 MLB Home Run Derby
Rob Hansen

Bryce Harper enters his home-town derby as the betting favorite at 11/4. His 172 career home runs ranks him No. 16 all-time for a player in his age-25 season or younger.

Major League Baseball's annual slugfest goes Monday night at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. If you're one of those people that simply can't take a night off from betting sports - and the WNBA doesn't appeal to you (wait...there are no WNBA games Monday either?!?! Jeez.) - the MLB Home Run Derby is here to prevent you from taking a sports vacation and/or spending time with the family.

The host venue, Nationals Park, slightly favors left-handed hitters as the power alley in right-center will be an absolute haven for the four lefties in the derby lineup.

Left Field - 337 feet
Left-Center - 377 feet
Center Field - 402 feet
Right-Center - 370 feet
Right Field - 335 feet

For you weather watchers out there, Monday in Washington, D.C. is expected to bring very warm temperatures approaching 100 degrees during the afternoon and coming down slightly to around 90 degrees in the evening for the derby. The balls will be flying with the warm summer air and there will even be a 10-12 mile per hour wind blowing out to center field.

This all adds up to a home run hitter's paradise. Now let's get to the competitors (betting odds courtesy of Westgate LV Superbook):

(1) Jesus Aguilar, Milwaukee Brewers 6/1 (Right) - Aguilar nabs the No. 1 seed because he is the competitor with the most home runs hit during the first half with 23. The interesting thing about Aguilar's 23 dingers is that he hit all of them after April 23. Jesus is a big dude and can hit bombs to all fields with ease, but being that he is such a large human he will likely wear down in the heat if he gets past Rhys Hoskins and into the second round.

(2) Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals 11/4 (left) - Harper enters his home-town derby as the betting favorite at 11/4. His 172 career home runs ranks him No. 16 all-time for a player in his age-25 season or younger. Harper, of course, hits mommoth home runs and should easily cash in on the 30 second bonus in each round for hitting two or more 440 foot bombs. Just like his previous Home Run Derby experience, Harper will have his father tossing him batting practice fastballs from behind the screen. As the only player who has previously competed in one of these events at the major league level, the experience factor will be a massive advantage.

(3) Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers 6/1 (left) - One of the most surprising players in baseball at the All-Star break is Max Muncy of the Dodgers. His 22 home runs at this point of the season ranks him third in this competition and he posesses one of the most desirable hitting traits for home run derby participants - "easy power". Incredibly, 5.5 percent of his swings and 14.3 percent of his batted balls have left the ballpark thus far in 2018.

(4) Alex Bregman, Houston Astros 8/1 (right) - World Series Champion Alex Bregman comes into this event with 19 dingers on the season and 18 of those long balls have come since May 6. Bregman is a very good hitter but doesn't posses the power to hit the ball far enough to earn extra time on the clock, which will hurt him. He'll hit some home runs in the event, and the juiced derby balls will help him squeak a few more wall scratchers than expected. The only American League participant will likely make an early exit.

(5) Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs 6/1 (left) - The highest ranked of the two Cubs' sluggers in the event, Kyle Schwarber, also owns the three hardest hit home runs in Cubs' history, since Statcast began tracking exit velocity, peaking at 117.1 miles per hour earlier this season in Cleveland. "Skinny Schwarber" comes in with 18 home runs at the break after a disappointing 2017 where he hit 30 bombs but batted only .211.

(6) Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs 8/1 (right) - Free-swinging Javy Baez is the second of two Cubs' sluggers in the Derby. Interesting notes on Baez - he has more homers than walks this season and he is one of only six MLB hitters to have at least eight home runs off curveballs and sliders in the first half. Perhaps he should advise his pitcher to mix in a spinner or two Monday night. Sportsbooks should be releasing prop odds on whether or not Javy swings-and-misses during his time at the plate during the Derby. Baez will swing really hard and fail to advance past Muncy in the first round.

(7) Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves 6/1 (left) - Freeman is a great slugger to all fields and comes into the event with the best pure baseball numbers. 16 home runs, 60 runs batted in, and a first half batting average of .315 will certainly garner you some National League Most Valuable Player Award votes, but it won't help you a great deal in a derby setting - especially when you draw the hometown hero in the opening round. Freeman simply doesn't hit the ball far enough to compete with Harper and will exit early.

(8) Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies 7/1 (right) - Hoskins burst on to the MLB scene in 2017 with a major league record 18 home runs in his first 35 games. He is a natural to be included in Monday's event based on the historic start to his career, despite only having 14 dingers at the break. Hoskins possesses big power (especially on fastballs) and could be a live underdog to pull the No. 8 seed over No. 1 seed upset in the first round.

Pick to win:

This entire event appears set up perfectly for Harper to win in front of the home fans. He's the only participant who has competed in the MLB Home Run Derby in the past, it's a very weak field with minimal star power, he hits long home runs which will earn him bonus time on the clock (30 seconds of bonus time for clubbing two or more home runs of 440 feet or further), and the home crowd will be behind him. At 11/4 the value actually isn't that terrible, but if you're looking for someone slightly further down the odds list, take a peek at Max Muncy at 6/1. Muncy is built to hit home runs and almost everything he makes contact with seems to leave the yard. 6/1 is decent value for a guy who should be able to take down a pair of Cubs' sluggers in his bracket and advance to the finals.

Opening Round Matchups:

Hoskins +115
Aquilar -135

Freeman +170
Harper -200

Schwarber -150
Bregman +130

Baez +130
Muncy -150

**Udog** · 07-15-2018, 11:47 PM

Win Total Update - AS Break

Over three months of the 2018 pro baseball season are in the books and bettors investing in “Win Total” wagers can start to get a clearer picture on their investments. Listed below are each team’s win totals and their records through July 15 along with their projection to go ‘over’ or ‘under’ this season.

**Udog** · 07-15-2018, 11:55 PM

Interleague Results So Far

The 2018 MLB regular season will usually feature at least one Interleague game every day. All teams will play exactly 20 Interleague games broken down into eight series, four at home and four on the road.

**Udog** · 07-16-2018, 03:07 PM

MLB

Monday, July 16

Top Five Money Starters (based on $100 wager per start):

1. Luis Severino, NYY (18-2) $1435
2. Jon Lester, CHC (16-3) $1275
3. Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (16-3) $1160
4. Mike Fiers, DET (11-7) $943
5. Gerrit Cole, HOU (16-4) $893

Worst Five Money Starters (based on $100 wager per start):

278. Tanner Roark, WAS (5-14) $-1263
277. Kyle Hendricks, CHC (7-12) $-1251
276. Alex Cobb, BAL (3-14) $-1085
275. Kevin Gausman, BAL (5-14) $-974
274. Justin Verlander, HOU (12-9) $-952

Top Five Money Teams (based on $100 wager per game):

1. Boston Red Sox (68-30) $2318
2. Oakland A's (55-42) $1874
3. Seattle Mariners (58-39) $1589
4. Atlanta Braves (52-42) $1208
5. Philadelphia Phillies (53-42) $1140

Worst Five Money Teams (based on $100 wager per game):

30. Baltimore Orioles (28-69) $-3716
29. Kansas City Royals (27-68) $-3033
28. Chicago White Sox (33-62) $-1813
27. Washington Nationals (48-48) $-1782
26. New York Mets (39-55) $1667

**Udog** · 07-16-2018, 09:30 PM

MLB

Monday, July 16

Top Five Homer Umpires (based on home win %, min. 6 games behind home plate):

1. Nick Mahrley (6-0) $647
2. Mike DiMuro (14-2) $1410
3. Roberto Ortiz (8-2) $798
4. David Rackley (11-3) $745
5. Bill Welke (14-5) $844

Top Five Roadie Umpires (based on away team win %, min. 6 games behind home plate):

1. Ben May 12-0
2. Jim Reynolds 14-5
3. Dan Iassogna 5-2
t4. Mike Winters 11-6
t4. Adam Hamari 11-6

Announcement

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/16

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/16

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