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  • Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 4/19

    Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, April 19

    Good Luck on day #109 of 2018!

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------

  • #2
    Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

    2018 Kentucky Derby odds:

    Justify +225

    Mendelssohn +525

    Bolt d’Oro +575

    Audible +675

    Magnum Moon +725

    Good Magic +825


    **********

    Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud

    13) Interesting article in Forbes magazine, written by K. Sean Pickard, about athletes and the taxes they pay. From the article:

    “LeBron James was the highest-paid athlete in the U.S. last year with more than $80 million from salary and endorsements. King James will pay his fair share of taxes, but the level of complication for James and his financial team when they are filing is off the charts since he earned money in at least the 21 states where NBA teams are located.”

    12) From Sports Illustrated, on NFL players and their taxes:

    “One All-Pro’s 2016 filing was 400 pages long. He spoke with his tax accountant on a near-daily basis, calling before scheduling a bye-week vacation to income tax-free Florida that saved him $20,000. And this is a guy who has played on the same team his entire career.”

    This is the tax formula, for a player who earns $13M a year:

    ($13,000,000 x 1 day x 13.3% tax rate / 170-day season).

    So spending his bye week in a tax-free state can save an NFL player a significant amount of money.

    11) It was 29 degrees in Dodge City, KS at 5am Tuesday; by 3:00 Tuesday afternoon, the temperature had risen to 93 degrees, which is just a little weird.

    10) Tuesday night’s Price-Ohtani pitching matchup in Anaheim was Angels’ first home sellout on a Tuesday in four years. Ohtani got a blister on his pitching hand and left after throwing 66 pitches in two innings, allowing three runs.

    9) This is the first time the Toronto Raptors have ever led a playoff series 2-0.

    8) Brayden McNabb scored the series-winning goal for Las Vegas in their 1-0 win over the Kings Tuesday; it was Los Angeles that left him unprotected in the expansion draft, and the Golden Knights picked him up. Quite a season the expansion Knights are having, a team in their first-ever season still alive in the NHL playoffs.

    7) Oakland reliever Ryan Dull struck out four White Sox in the 8th inning Tuesday night, he is the first A’s pitcher ever with four strikeouts in an inning at home (4th all-time).

    6) Justin Timberlake owns a small part of the NBA’s Memphis Grizzlies.

    5) Two years ago, the Phillies’ mental skills department was essentially nonexistent. Now they have two full-time staffers and an intern. Mental. skills.

    Phillies’ GM Matt Klentak: “Like a lot of things in our business, it’s tough to quantify the importance of it, but we know it’s very important. You can tell talking to current players, ex-players, coaches – anybody that’s played the game knows there’s a tremendous amount of failure that goes along with it. Trying to identify ways to help players minimize the periods of failure even by one day can have an enormous impact on a player, on a team and on a franchise. We’re seeking as best we can to put our players in a position to succeed.”

    24 of 30 major league teams have a mental skills coach; learning how to deal with failure is seen as a very big deal now.

    4) Richmond Spiders tossed sophomore G De’Monte Buckingham off its basketball team for a violation of athletics department policy. Buckingham was the A-14 Rookie of the year two years ago; last year he averaged 12.2 ppg, third on the team, and a team-best 7 rpg

    It won’t be hard for Buckingham to find a new home, maybe even at a higher level.

    3) A’s 12, White Sox 11 (14)— Matt Olson got his first career walk-off hit off James Shields as the gritty Oaklanders rallied back from a 6-1 deficit to win their 4th straight game. Game took just under six hours to play; the two starting pitchers combined to get only seven outs.

    2) RIP Erin Popovich 67, wife of San Antonio Spurs’ coach Gregg Popovich; the couple were married for 40 years and have two children, two grandchildren.

    1) Baseball teams have 25-man rosters, for teams who make the playoffs, you need more than 25 guys to get thru a season.

    In 2012, the A’s went 94-68, won the AL West on the last day of the season, but they were only 46-44 on July 18 when a sub infielder named Brandon Hicks hit a walk-off homer to beat Texas 4-3, a win that started Oakland on a 7-game winning streak.

    A’s wound up beating the Rangers out by a game; Hicks hit only .174 for the A’s that season in 22 games (64 AB) but that hit was huge— without it, they probably don’t make the playoffs.
    Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-19-2018, 11:36 AM.

    Comment


    • #3
      MLB
      Dunkel

      Thursday, April 19



      Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia

      Game 951-952
      April 19, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Pittsburgh
      (Taillon) 15.576
      Philadelphia
      (Arrieta) 14.339
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Pittsburgh
      by 1
      5
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Philadelphia
      -115
      7 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Pittsburgh
      (-105); Under

      NY Mets @ Atlanta


      Game 953-954
      April 19, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      NY Mets
      (Harvey) 15.681
      Atlanta
      (Sims) 14.249
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      NY Mets
      by 1 1/2
      7
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Atlanta
      -110
      9
      Dunkel Pick:
      NY Mets
      (-110); Under

      Miami @ Milwaukee


      Game 955-956
      April 19, 2018 @ 8:10 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Miami
      (Peters) 13.568
      Milwaukee
      (Andrson) 15.120
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Milwaukee
      by 1 1/2
      11
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Milwaukee
      -200
      8 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Milwaukee
      (-200); Over

      San Francisco @ Arizona


      Game 957-958
      April 19, 2018 @ 9:40 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      San Francisco
      (Blach) 14.379
      Arizona
      (Greinke) 16.430
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Arizona
      by 2
      6
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Arizona
      -175
      8 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Arizona
      (-175); Under

      Baltimore @ Detroit


      Game 959-960
      April 19, 2018 @ 1:10 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Baltimore
      (Cobb) 14.660
      Detroit
      (Zmmrmnn) 13.775
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Baltimore
      by 1
      7
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Baltimore
      -120
      9
      Dunkel Pick:
      Baltimore
      (-120); Under

      Houston @ Seattle


      Game 961-962
      April 19, 2018 @ 3:40 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Houston
      (Morton) 15.950
      Seattle
      (Gonzales) 14.474
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Houston
      by 1 1/2
      7
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Houston
      -180
      8 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Houston
      (-180); Under

      Toronto @ NY Yankees


      Game 963-964
      April 19, 2018 @ 6:35 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Toronto
      (Sanchez) 14.704
      NY Yankees
      (Sabathia) 17.915
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      NY Yankees
      by 3
      11
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      NY Yankees
      -150
      9
      Dunkel Pick:
      NY Yankees
      (-150); Over

      Boston @ LA Angels


      Game 965-966
      April 19, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      Boston
      (Rodriguez) 19.936
      LA Angels
      (Tropeano) 15.948
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Boston
      by 4
      10
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Boston
      -115
      8 1/2
      Dunkel Pick:
      Boston
      (-115); Over

      St. Louis @ Chicago Cubs


      Game 967-968
      April 19, 2018 @ 2:20 pm

      Dunkel Rating:
      St. Louis
      (Weaver) 14.848
      Chicago Cubs
      (Lester) 16.464
      Dunkel Team:
      Dunkel Line:
      Dunkel Total:
      Chicago Cubs
      by 1 1/2
      13
      Vegas Team:
      Vegas Line:
      Vegas Total:
      Chicago Cubs
      -115
      No Total
      Dunkel Pick:
      Chicago Cubs
      (-115); N/A
      Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-19-2018, 11:38 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        MLB
        Long Sheet

        Thursday, April 19


        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        PITTSBURGH (12 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 7) - 7:05 PM
        JAMESON TAILLON (R) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        PITTSBURGH is 51-71 (-22.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
        PHILADELPHIA is 34-27 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 3 seasons.
        PHILADELPHIA is 48-82 (-27.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        JAMESON TAILLON vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
        TAILLON is 1-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.273.
        His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

        JAKE ARRIETA vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
        ARRIETA is 11-6 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.96 and a WHIP of 0.964.
        His team's record is 14-7 (+2.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-11. (-2.5 units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        NY METS (13 - 4) at ATLANTA (10 - 7) - 7:35 PM
        MATT HARVEY (R) vs. MATT WISLER (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        NY METS are 18-45 (-26.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
        HARVEY is 14-24 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
        HARVEY is 6-15 (-14.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
        HARVEY is 14-29 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)
        ATLANTA is 73-90 (+23.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
        NY METS are 13-4 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
        NY METS are 20-7 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
        NY METS are 111-90 (+35.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
        NY METS are 27-18 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        MATT HARVEY vs. ATLANTA since 1997
        HARVEY is 3-6 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.38 and a WHIP of 1.335.
        His team's record is 3-8 (-9.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-4. (+1.8 units)

        MATT WISLER vs. NY METS since 1997
        WISLER is 3-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 2.59 and a WHIP of 1.080.
        His team's record is 4-2 (+4.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.7 units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        MIAMI (5 - 12) at MILWAUKEE (10 - 9) - 8:10 PM
        DILLON PETERS (L) vs. CHASE ANDERSON (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        MILWAUKEE is 96-85 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        MILWAUKEE is 62-53 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
        MILWAUKEE is 49-39 (+19.7 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
        MILWAUKEE is 79-102 (-34.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

        DILLON PETERS vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
        PETERS is 0-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 19.62 and a WHIP of 3.270.
        His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

        CHASE ANDERSON vs. MIAMI since 1997
        ANDERSON is 2-2 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.385.
        His team's record is 2-3 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 10) at ARIZONA (12 - 5) - 9:40 PM
        TY BLACH (L) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 71-108 (-37.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 14-38 (-18.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 30-61 (-27.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 14-26 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 13-35 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 102-125 (-35.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 48-71 (-28.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 22-46 (-26.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
        SAN FRANCISCO is 23-54 (-25.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 12-5 (+8.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
        ARIZONA is 59-32 (+19.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 26-15 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 16-5 (+11.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 56-38 (+16.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 75-54 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
        ARIZONA is 7-1 (+7.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
        GREINKE is 54-22 (+20.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. (Team's Record)
        GREINKE is 133-71 (+45.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
        GREINKE is 101-51 (+36.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
        GREINKE is 26-7 (+16.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

        Head-to-Head Series History
        ARIZONA is 3-2 (+0.4 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
        3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

        TY BLACH vs. ARIZONA since 1997
        BLACH is 0-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 7.20 and a WHIP of 1.600.
        His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

        ZACK GREINKE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
        GREINKE is 11-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.37 and a WHIP of 1.073.
        His team's record is 14-3 (+11.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-9. (-2.2 units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        BALTIMORE (5 - 13) at DETROIT (6 - 9) - 1:10 PM
        ALEX COBB (R) vs. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        BALTIMORE is 31-61 (-25.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
        BALTIMORE is 18-42 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
        BALTIMORE is 17-42 (-23.4 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
        BALTIMORE is 216-347 (-108.0 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
        DETROIT is 70-107 (-34.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        DETROIT is 27-47 (-19.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
        DETROIT is 37-52 (-19.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
        DETROIT is 14-26 (-14.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
        DETROIT is 49-84 (-31.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
        DETROIT is 24-45 (-22.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
        DETROIT is 31-50 (-20.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        DETROIT is 2-0 (+2.2 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
        1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

        ALEX COBB vs. DETROIT since 1997
        COBB is 2-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 1.312.
        His team's record is 3-3 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-5. (-4.4 units)

        JORDAN ZIMMERMANN vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
        ZIMMERMANN is 3-4 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.84 and a WHIP of 1.478.
        His team's record is 3-5 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.3 units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        HOUSTON (12 - 7) at SEATTLE (9 - 7) - 3:40 PM
        CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. MARCO GONZALES (L)
        Top Trends for this game.
        HOUSTON is 14-22 (-15.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
        MORTON is 17-38 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)
        HOUSTON is 62-38 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
        HOUSTON is 31-13 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
        SEATTLE is 903-819 (-113.5 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
        SEATTLE is 164-206 (-58.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday since 1997.
        SEATTLE is 305-305 (-67.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        HOUSTON is 2-1 (+0.9 Units) against SEATTLE this season
        2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

        CHARLIE MORTON vs. SEATTLE since 1997
        MORTON is 1-2 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.80 and a WHIP of 1.183.
        His team's record is 2-2 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

        MARCO GONZALES vs. HOUSTON since 1997
        No recent starts.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        TORONTO (12 - 5) at NY YANKEES (8 - 8) - 6:35 PM
        AARON SANCHEZ (R) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
        Top Trends for this game.
        TORONTO is 107-110 (-28.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
        SABATHIA is 13-5 (+9.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
        SABATHIA is 27-15 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

        Head-to-Head Series History
        NY YANKEES is 2-2 (+0.0 Units) against TORONTO this season
        3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

        AARON SANCHEZ vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
        SANCHEZ is 1-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.342.
        His team's record is 1-3 (-2.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

        C.C. SABATHIA vs. TORONTO since 1997
        SABATHIA is 17-11 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.143.
        His team's record is 18-14 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 19-12. (+5.3 units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        BOSTON (15 - 2) at LA ANGELS (13 - 5) - 10:05 PM
        EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) vs. NICK TROPEANO (R)
        Top Trends for this game.
        BOSTON is 2-9 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
        LA ANGELS are 226-181 (+36.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997.
        LA ANGELS are 49-37 (+18.2 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
        BOSTON is 15-2 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
        BOSTON is 13-1 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in April games this season.
        BOSTON is 73-45 (+23.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
        BOSTON is 89-54 (+23.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
        BOSTON is 13-1 (+12.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        BOSTON is 2-0 (+2.7 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
        2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

        EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
        RODRIGUEZ is 0-1 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 37.72 and a WHIP of 5.389.
        His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

        NICK TROPEANO vs. BOSTON since 1997
        No recent starts.

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        ST LOUIS (10 - 7) at CHICAGO CUBS (7 - 8) - 2:20 PM
        LUKE WEAVER (R) vs. JON LESTER (L)
        Top Trends for this game.
        ST LOUIS is 16-29 (-19.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
        ST LOUIS is 95-122 (-41.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
        CHICAGO CUBS are 103-84 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
        CHICAGO CUBS are 908-827 (-163.6 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
        CHICAGO CUBS are 423-383 (-88.1 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
        CHICAGO CUBS are 42-43 (-26.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
        CHICAGO CUBS are 77-64 (-19.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
        CHICAGO CUBS are 18-24 (-17.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

        Head-to-Head Series History
        ST LOUIS is 1-0 (+1.1 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
        1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

        LUKE WEAVER vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
        WEAVER is 0-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 12.86 and a WHIP of 2.286.
        His team's record is 1-1 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

        JON LESTER vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
        LESTER is 7-5 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.16 and a WHIP of 1.003.
        His team's record is 10-7 (+2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-11. (-7.7 units)

        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-19-2018, 11:39 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          MLB
          Armadillo's Write-Up

          Thursday, April 19



          National League
          Cardinals (10-7) @ Cubs (7-8)

          Weaver is 2-0, 2.08 in his first three starts (under 3-0).
          5-inning record: 3-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-2

          Lester is 1-0, 5.02 in his first three starts (over 2-1)
          5-inning record: 2-0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-3

          St Louis won its last five games; five of their last six games stayed under. Cubs are 2-4 at home this season; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games.

          Pirates (12-6) @ Phillies (10-7)
          Tallion is 2-0, 0.89 in three starts this season (under 2-1).
          5-inning record: 2-0-1. Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-3

          Arrieta is 1-0, 5.06 in two starts this season (over 2-0).
          5-inning record: 1-0-1. Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-2

          Pirates are 8-5 in their last 13 games; over is 6-3 in their road games. Phillies won seven of their last nine games; under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

          Mets (13-4) @ Braves (10-7)
          Harvey is 0-1, 7.20 in his last two starts (under 2-1).
          5-inning record: 1-1-1. Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-3

          Wisler is 15-22, 5.26 in 67 MLB games (46 starts); he started only one game LY.
          5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0

          Mets lost three of their last five games; under is 9-6 in their last 15 games. Atlanta is 6-3 at home this season; eight of their last ten games stayed under.

          Marlins (5-12) @ Brewers (10-9)
          Peters is 2-1, 6.75 in three starts this season (over 2-1).
          5-inning record: 2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-3

          Anderson is 1-1, 2.82 in four starts this season (under 3-0-1).
          5-inning record: 2-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-4

          Marlins lost six of their last eight games; their last four road games went over. Milwaukee is 4-3 in its last seven games, 4-6 at home; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games.

          Giants (7-10) @ Diamondbacks (12-5)
          Blach is 0-2, 6.46 in his last three starts (under 3-1).
          5-inning record: 1-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-4

          Greinke is 1-1, 5.29 in three starts this season (over 2-1).
          5-inning record: 2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-3

          Giants lost five of their last seven games; under is 7-3 in their road games. Arizona won six of its last nine games; they’re 6-2 at home. Five of D’backs’ last seven games went over.

          American League
          Orioles (5-13) @ Tigers (6-9)

          Cobb allowed eight runs in 3.2 IP (79 PT) in his first ’18 start, a 10-3 loss in Boston.
          5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-1

          Zimmerman is 0-0, 8.18 in three starts this season (over 2-1). He got hit in face with a liner in his last start, left in first inning.
          5-inning record: 0-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-3

          Orioles lost seven of their last eight games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight road games. Detroit lost five of its last seven games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

          Astros (12-7) @ Mariners (9-7)
          Morton is 2-0, 1.50 in three starts this season (under 2-1).
          5-inning record: 3-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-3

          Gonzales is 1-1, 8.25 in three starts this season (over 3-0).
          5-inning record: 2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-3

          Houston is 3-5 in its last eight games; under is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. Seattle lost three of its last four games; over is 9-6-1 in their games this season.

          Blue Jays (12-5) @ New York (8-8)
          Sanchez is 1-0, 2.57 in his last two starts (under 3-0).
          5-inning record: 0-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-3

          Sabathia is 0-0, 5.00 in his first two ’18 starts (over 1-1).
          5-inning record: 0-1-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-2

          Blue Jays won seven of their last eight games; Jays’ last four games went over the total. New York is 4-6 in its last 10 games; they’re 4-4 at home. Over is 7-1 in their home games.

          Red Sox (15-2) @ Angels (13-5)
          Rodriguez is 1-0, 3.72 in his first two ’18 starts (over 1-0-1)
          5-inning record: 1-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-2

          Tropeano blanked KC for 6.2 IP in his first ’18 start, a 7-1 win.
          5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1

          Boston won its last six games; four of their last six road games stayed under. Angels won seven of their last nine games but lost last two; four of their last five home games went over.

          ______________________________

          Teams’ records in first five innings:
          Team (road-home-total)- thru 4/18/18
          Ariz 5-3-1……5-0-3…..10-3
          Atl 5-3……..5-2-2……..10-5
          Cubs 3-4-2……0-5-1…..3-9
          Reds 2-7-1……1-6-1…..3-13
          Colo 7-6-2……2-2-1……9-8
          LA 4-3-1…..4-4-1……..8-7
          Miami 1-3-1…..4-4-4……..5-7
          Milw 6-3…….3-6-1………9-9
          Mets 3-3……6-4-2………8-7
          Philly 3-4-4…..3-1-1……..6-5
          Pitt 6-1-2……7-2……….13-3
          St. Louis 8-2-1…….2-4……..10-6
          SD 2-2-2…..3-10-1……..5-12
          SF 3-4-3…..2-4-1……..5-8
          Wash 6-3……..4-5-1……..10-8

          Orioles 2-6-4…….1-3-2……3-9
          Boston 5-0-3……..5-2-2……10-2
          White Sox 4-5………1-5………5-10
          Cleveland 3-2-3……5-1-2…….8-3
          Detroit 2-5………2-5-1…….4-10
          Astros 3-3-4……5-3-1…….8-6
          KC 3-4-1……3-4-1…….6-8
          Angels 8-1-1……2-5-1…….10-6
          Twins 2-3-2……3-2-1…….5-5
          NYY 5-2-1……4-2-2…….9-4
          A’s 4-3-1……3-6-2……7-9
          Seattle 4-2-1……2-2-5……6-4
          TB 4-3-1……2-6–2…….6-9
          Texas 5-4-1……..2-8……..7-12
          Toronto 3-2-2……3-6-1…….6-8

          %age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 4/18/18)
          Ariz 4-8……..4-7………..8
          Atl 3-8……..5-10………..8
          Cubs 1-9……..2-6………..3
          Reds 1-10……..1-8………..2
          Colo 7-14……2-6..………9
          LA 3-8……..3-8..………6
          Miami 2-5……..4-12……….6
          Milw 2-9……..0-10…..…….2
          Mets 1-6……..6-11…………7
          Philly 2-11……..4-6…………6
          Pitt 1-9……..3-9…………4
          StL 3-10……..1-6…………4
          SD 1-6……..1-13……….2
          SF 1-9………2-7……….3
          Wash 7-9……..5-10………12

          Orioles 5-12……0-6………..5
          Boston 3-8……..6-9………..8
          White Sox 1-9…….2-6………..3
          Clev 1-8……..3-8……….4
          Detroit 1-7…….0-8………..1
          Astros 3-10……3-7……….6
          KC 2-8……..3-8………..5
          Angels 5-10……..2-7……….7
          Twins 1-7……..0-6……….1
          NYY 2-8……..4-8……….6
          A’s 4-8……..2-11………6
          Seattle 4-7…….3-9……….7
          TB 3-8…….2-10……..5
          Texas 1-10……2-10…….3
          Toronto 2-7……..3-10……..5

          Interleague play- 2018
          NL @ AL– 8-2 NL, favorites -$415
          AL @ NL– 2-2 , favorites -$112
          Total: 10-4 NL, favorites -$527

          Totals in interleague games
          NL @ AL: Under 5-5
          AL @ NL: Under 2-2
          Total: Under 7-7
          Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-19-2018, 11:40 AM.

          Comment


          • #6
            MLB

            Thursday, April 19


            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Trend Report
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            Baltimore Orioles
            Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
            Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
            Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
            Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
            The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road
            Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
            Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
            Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
            Detroit Tigers
            Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
            Detroit is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
            Detroit is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games at home
            The total has gone OVER in 16 of Detroit's last 23 games at home
            Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
            Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Baltimore
            Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore


            St. Louis Cardinals
            St. Louis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
            St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
            St. Louis is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
            St. Louis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games on the road
            St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chi Cubs
            St. Louis is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Chi Cubs
            St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
            Chicago Cubs
            Chi Cubs is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
            Chi Cubs is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
            Chi Cubs is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
            Chi Cubs is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
            Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
            Chi Cubs is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis
            Chi Cubs is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis


            Houston Astros
            Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 13 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
            Houston is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
            Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Seattle
            The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 11 games when playing Seattle
            Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
            Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
            The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
            Seattle Mariners
            Seattle is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
            The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 15 games
            Seattle is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
            Seattle is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Houston
            Seattle is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Houston
            The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Seattle's last 11 games when playing Houston
            Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
            Seattle is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
            The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Houston


            Toronto Blue Jays
            Toronto is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
            Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
            Toronto is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
            Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
            Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
            Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
            Toronto is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
            New York Yankees
            The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Yankees's last 9 games
            NY Yankees is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games at home
            NY Yankees is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
            NY Yankees is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games at home
            NY Yankees is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home
            NY Yankees is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Toronto
            NY Yankees is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
            NY Yankees is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Toronto
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto


            Pittsburgh Pirates
            Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
            Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
            Pittsburgh is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
            Pittsburgh is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
            Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
            Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
            Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
            Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
            Philadelphia Phillies
            Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
            Philadelphia is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games at home
            Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
            Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
            Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
            Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
            Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh


            New York Mets
            NY Mets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
            NY Mets is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
            NY Mets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
            NY Mets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
            NY Mets is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
            NY Mets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
            The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Mets's last 11 games when playing Atlanta
            NY Mets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
            NY Mets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
            Atlanta Braves
            Atlanta is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
            Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 10 games
            Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
            Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
            Atlanta is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Mets
            Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
            The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 11 games when playing NY Mets
            Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Mets
            Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Mets
            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Mets


            Miami Marlins
            Miami is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
            Miami is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
            Miami is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
            Miami is 5-16 SU in its last 21 games on the road
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
            Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
            Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
            The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
            Milwaukee Brewers
            Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
            Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games at home
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
            Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing Miami
            Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
            The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Miami


            San Francisco Giants
            San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
            San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games
            San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
            San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
            The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 11 games on the road
            San Francisco is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Arizona
            San Francisco is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
            San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
            San Francisco is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Arizona
            The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Francisco's last 18 games when playing on the road against Arizona
            Arizona Diamondbacks
            Arizona is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
            Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home
            Arizona is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
            Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
            Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
            Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Francisco
            The total has gone OVER in 12 of Arizona's last 18 games when playing at home against San Francisco


            Boston Red Sox
            Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
            Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
            Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
            Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing LA Angels
            Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
            Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
            Los Angeles Angels
            LA Angels is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games
            LA Angels is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games at home
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Boston
            LA Angels is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
            LA Angels is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
            The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston


            ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Last edited by StarDust Bum; 04-19-2018, 11:41 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              The Complete Game: Rain, snow, and wind impacting your MLB bets
              Rob Hansen

              As of Wednesday, there have been 25 games postponed this season – just one shy of the record number of postponements by the end of April (26) set back in 2007.

              Well, you can’t say I didn’t warn you. Last week, I talked about Los Angeles Angels’ Shohei Ohtani and how he's overvalued in both the American League MVP futures market (+150) and his early-season game lines. This past Tuesday night at home, Ohtani and the Halos were tuned up 10-1 by the visiting Boston Red Sox and the phenom exited early with “blister problems” after allowing three runs in two innings of work. The BoSox went off as +150 underdogs - a moneyline that simply didn’t make sense.

              I put “blister problems” in quotes because I’m not buying the excuse. He simply didn’t have his good stuff and was facing his first real major league test on the mound (his first two starts were against the Oakland Athletics). Could it also have been that the home crowd (or traveling Red Sox fans) were yelling too loud?

              Week in review

              The biggest story this past week across Major League Baseball was the weather. As of Wednesday evening, there have been 25 games postponed this season – just one shy of the record number of postponements by the end of April (26) set back in 2007 – and we still have two weeks to this month.

              If this is, in fact, something that baseball is concerned about, the logical solution is to limit the number of games scheduled in the Northeast and Midwest during the first three weeks of the season. The Southern and domed teams won’t be particularly thrilled about losing games in the summer, but I’m sure there can be some sort of financial arrangement made between teams to dull the complaining.

              What do all these postponed games mean for sports bettors? More doubleheaders, less off-days, and more NBA-style creative off-days during the summer months. Here are some handicapping approaches to take whenever these postponed games do get rescheduled:

              *Keep your eyes peeled for early lineup news – beat writers on Twitter are a gold mine. Teams will also be forced to stray from ther regular pitching rotation.
              *When it comes to doubleheaders, be aware of how many relievers were used in Game 1 before betting Game 2.
              *Travel and schedule will be a factor, as teams may have to give up their day off or a travel day to fit in these missed contests. You could see East Coast clubs playing an afternoon game then having to hop on a plane and fly to the West Coast for an early start the next day, or teams may have to stop for a one-off make-up game while on their way to regularly scheduled series.

              What to watch for this weekend

              There are a bunch of divisional series, highlighted by the Blue Jays taking on the Yankees in the Bronx, the Reds and Cardinals renewing their distaste for one another in St. Louis, and the surprisingly-healthy Mets visiting the Braves in Atlanta.

              However, the main event in baseball this weekend is unquestionably the Washington Nationals traveling to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. The Nationals exorcised their 2016 playoff demons by taking two of three games at Dodger Stadium last season, highlighted by a duel between Stephen Strasburg and Clayton Kershaw. These two stars will go head-to-head once again Saturday night.

              The Dodgers came out on top 2-1 as -165 favorites last June and I expect the line will fall somewhere in the neighbourhood of -155 to -170 for Saturday’s game, with the Dodgers winning 3-2.

              Friday night’s game will be Max Scherzer taking on lefty Rich Hill. The Nats will definitely be road favorites in this one and could present some value at around -135 to -155 (anything higher than that and I’m staying away).

              These two teams will also feature on Sunday Night Baseball, with Jeremy Hellickson countering either Hyun-Jin Ryu or Alex Wood. The Dodgers are off Thursday, so they could decide to skip Ryu and run Wood out in front of the national audience. With Ryu, the Dodgers are likely -140 favorites and with Wood the moneyline is more like -160.

              Of course, it doesn’t matter who the Dodgers throw out there to pitch since Bryce Harper is now hitting broken bat home runs. If you can hit a home run on a jam-shot that turns your bat to smithereens, it doesn’t matter who’s doing the pitching...

              Breakout Player Of The Week

              In this spot during the first few weeks of this column, I focused on umpire stats and lectured about not making a totals wager without first checking up on who's calling balls and strikes. This week, I’m going to switch it up and focus on a player you should really be paying attention to in your prop betting and on your fantasy team.

              Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Nick Pivetta was an auto-fade during the first half of last season. Every time he was listed to start, you would hear his name whispered around the office at Covers World Headquarters as an automatic play-against. Boy, how things have changed.

              Pivetta is now four starts into his 2018 season and the Phillies have won each of them. In fact, if you go back to the final month of last season the Phils have now won eight consecutive starts by Pivetta and 10 of his last 11. This year, he's up +4.0 units and over those last 11 starts previously mentioned, he's posted +12.14 units thanks to some impressive wins as a big underdog, including a win over Kershaw and the Dodgers at +292.

              What has changed? His velocity on his four-seam fastball is about the same, he has essentially abandoned his changeup, he’s throwing his curveball more often, and he added a two-seam sinking fastball that he mixes in occasionally. He always had good stuff, and that’s exactly why the Phillies stuck with him through the tough times last year. He just needed a slight tweak in pitch selection and philosophy.

              Pivetta’s next start will be against Trevor Williams and the Pittsburgh Pirates at home Sunday. I expect this game will be somewhere between a pick'em and Phillies -125. Still decent value.

              Comment


              • #8
                MLB

                Thursday, April 19



                Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

                Streaking:
                Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-0, 0.89 ERA, $300)

                With Gerrit Cole out of the picture in Pittsburgh, it's time for Jameson Taillon to shine - and he's doing exactly that in 2018. In three starts this season, Taillon owns an ERA of 0.89, a WHIP of 0.69, and an opponent's on-base percentage of .200. Right now he is the Cy Young leader in the National League.

                Taillon and the Pirates are -110 favorites on the road in Philadelphia against Jake Arrieta and the Phillies.

                Slumping:
                Alex Cobb, Baltimore Orioles (0-1, 17.18 ERA, $-100)

                The Orioles' big offseason acquisition didn't exactly thrill his new club in his first start - eight runs, 10 hits, zero strikeouts, and two home runs allowed over 3.2 innings of work isn't exactly what they were hoping for. That all shakes out to an ERA of 17.18, a WHIP of 3.00, and an opponent's on-base percentage of .524.

                Cobb will look to bounce back from that pathetic performance Thursday afternoon on the road in Detroit as a -115 favorite.

                Thursday's Top Trends

                * Over is 17-4-1 in Jordan Zimmermann's last 22 home starts. Orioles/Tigers total: 9.5.
                * Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between the Astros and Mariners. HOU/SEA total: 8.
                * Over is 11-1-1 in Yankees' last 13 overall. TOR/NYY total: 9.
                * Pirates are 7-0 in Jameson Taillon's last seven starts vs. NL East. -110 today @ Phillies.
                * Mets are 1-6 in Matt Harvey's last seven starts vs. Braves. -120 today @ ATL.
                * Under is 7-0 in Chase Anderson's last seven starts overall. Marlins/Brewers total: 9.
                * Giants are 1-8 in Ty Blach's last nine starts. +155 today @ Diamondbacks.

                Weather Watch

                There should be no games wiped out by weather today.

                Wind will still be an issue, however:

                Orioles @ Tigers (+110, 9.5): 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing straight OUT to center.
                Cardinals @ Cubs (-110, 7): 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
                Blue Jays @ Yankees (-150, 9): 15-18 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right field.
                Pirates @ Phillies (-105, 7.5): 15-18 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
                Mets @ Braves (+100, 9.5): 12-15 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to left-center field.

                Ump of the Day

                Jerry Layne will be calling balls and strikes tonight in Anaheim where the Red Sox will be taking on the Angels and that is good news for the offense on both sides. Tonight will be Layne's fourth game behind the plate this season and the Over has cashed in all of his previous three. And not only has the Over hit in those three games, but they hit in a big way with a total runs per game average of 14.33.

                The Over has cashed in his last five games overall, dating back to the end of last season.

                The total for tonight's game is set at 8.5.

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