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National League Season Preview
Major League Baseball is almost upon us, so it's time for some preview and we will start off with the National League. The Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers all won their respective divisions last year and I expect all three to pull the same feat again, but the gap is closing in all three divisions. In the end, I will look for the Nationals to come out of the National League as the team to go to the World Series as they appear to be the most complete team in the NL.
National League East Preview
The National League East has been dominated by the Nationals the last two years and they are the favorites to win it this year, but the gap is closing. The Phillies showed some promise at the end of the year and the Mets should be much healthier this year, especially with their pitching staff. The Braves have also improved and they have a lot of young talent on that team. The Marlins will be bringing up the rear as they are clearly in rebuilding mode.
Washington Nationals: The Nationals have won the division the last two years in a row and they are set to win it again. They were 5th in the league in scoring last year and this offense could be even better this year. They are led by Bryce Harper, who has Triple Crown capabilities, but he needs to stay healthy. They also have a healthy Adam Eaton back and they will need him to stay on the field as well. This team can hit and score, but they can also Pitch with the likes of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez. The Pen was a mess last year until the traded for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson and now they have added Brandon Kintzler. This is a team, with very few weaknesses and anything less than a trip to the World Series would be a disappointment for them.
New York Mets: The Mets have been known for their pitching over the last few years, but last year that pitching really struggled are in this spot due to their pitching, which should get back on track after an injury-filled 2017. Last year they finished 28th in the league in ERA at 5.01, but a healthy Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Matt Harvey, along with Jacob deGrom should have them back in the top ten in the league in ERA this year. The pen should also be better as they will not be overused, plus they have Jeurys Familia, who is healthy. The offense made major upgrades as they added Adrian Gonzalez and Todd Frazier, plus they brought back Jay Bruce and they have Dom Smith, who had nine home and 26 RBIs in 49 games last year. They also have Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto will be back in May. If they stay healthy, hey they could challenge the Nationals in the East, but still, they should be a player in the Wildcard race.
Philadelphia Phillies: I wanted the Phillies in the 2nd spot, but just couldn’t overlook the improvements the Mets have made on offense to go along with a healthier staff. The Phillies finished last year playing well and that will give them confidence for this year. Their offense really took off once they called up Rhys Hoskins who had 18 homers and 48 RBIs in just 50 games last year. Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Odubel Herrera are also rising stars to go along with Cesar Hernandez, who let them in hitting (.294) and newly acquired Carlos Santana. They finished just 27th in the league in scoring last year but will be far better. The pitching was middle of the pack last year and if they stay healthy, then they could have a top 10 staff. The staff is the youngest in the league with an average age of 27, so that is an upside for them but they really need Aaron Nola and Vince Vasquez to stay healthy. The pen should be better with the addition of Pat Neshek. I expect the Phillies to be a serious player in the battle for a wildcard berth this year.
Atlanta Braves: The Atlanta Braves finished 4th in the division last year and I expect them to finish there once again. This is a young team that is rebuilding and will most likely be better in the 2nd half of the season than the first half. They are led by Freddie Freeman, but they will need him to stay healthy. He got off to a great start last year, but then got injured and never was the same the rest of the way. He finished with 28 homers and 71 RBIs on the year. He also needs some help as this offense doesn’t have a lot of pop in it. Ozzie Albies has had a good spring and they have no.2 prospect Ronald Acuna to go along with Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte, but still, this offense is not looking that great overall, especially with the losses of Matt Kemp and Matt Adams. The pitching staff revolves around Julio Teheran, but he did struggle last year. The Braves have some nice young arms in Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb and the added Scott Kazmir, but still, they should finish below average in the league. The Braves are still rebuilding and that should make for a tough season for them, but watch out next year.
Miami Marlins: The Miami Marlins are clearly in a rebuilding mode and that could make for a long year under the new Ownership that is led by Derek Jeter. The Marlins really felt the heat from their fanbase as they traded off some big names and got little in return. The Key additions are Cameron Maybin and Starlin Castro, but those two hardly offset the losses of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna, who combined for 114 homers last year. Stanton will be the toughest to replace after leading the league with 59 homers last year. Miami was 11th in the league in scoring last year, but with all they lose in the offseason, it will be hard to see them crack the top 20 this year. The Marlins were 26th in the league in ERA last year and with Dan Straily as their ace, it will be hard to see them improve on that a ton. This is a young team that has many holes at the player and on the mound and many have considered them a Triple-A team. That about sums it up for the Marlins this year.
National League Central Preview
The National League Central Division is Chicago’s to lose, but the Brewers and Cardinals have a chance to make things interesting as both teams have made some nice moves in the offseason. The Pirates should contend for a wildcard slot, while the Reds will again be rebuilding. This should be a fun year in the Central.
Chicago Cubs: Two years ago, the Chicago Cubs won the World Series and last year they made it to the NLCS before losing to the Dodgers. This year they do have a shot at getting back to the World Series. The Cubs are led by Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, but they also have rising stars in Ian Happ, Wilson Contreras, and Kyle Schwarber to go along with Javier Baez and Jason Heyward. There is not an easy out on this team and they should again rank in the top five in the league in scoring. This team can hit, but they also can pitch with Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks leading the way and now they have added Yu Darvish, which gives them one of the most dominant top three started in the league. They have also added Tyler Chatwood from Colorado and he should be apart of the starting rotation. The pen was the biggest issue for them last year, especially in the postseason as they pen had a 6.21 ERA in the playoffs last year. They do lose wade Davis but have picked up Brandon Morrow and Steve Cishek to help out. It’s World Series or bust for the Cubs this year.
Milwaukee Brewers: The Brewers missed making the playoffs last year by just one game and they were very active in the offseason to shore up the spots that they need to take the next step. The offense was a sore spot for them a year ago and they addressed that with the addition of Christian Yelich from Miami and Lorenzo Cain from Kansas City. Both will be huge impact players for the Brewers and they also still have Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana, who had 30 homers last year. This offense really looks to be improved over the one that put up just 4.52 rpg a year ago. The Brewers were led by their pitching, which ranked 9th in the league in ERA a year ago and that pitching should be just as good this year. They do lose Matt Garza but have picked up Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo to go along with Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, and Brent Suter, plus they will get back Jimmy Nelson in Mid-June. Pitching got them to within one game of the postseason last year and the offense will make up the difference this year.
St Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals always seem to be in the mix for a playoff spot and this year should be no different. They had a chance at a wildcard spot last year, but a 2-7 finish to the season put an end to that. The offense was decent last year as the finished 13th in the league in scoring and they have a chance to better this time around, especially with the addition of Marcell Ozuna, who had 37 homers for the Marlins last year. They still have Matt Carpenter and Tommy Pham,, who are impact players, to go along with Jedd Gyorko (20 homers), Paul Dejong (25 homers and Dexter Fowler (18 homers). I really like the look of this offense, and it should be better than last year. The pitching staff looks solid but they need Adam Wainwright to stay healthy. He was 12-5 last year, but with a 5.11 ERA. A lot of high-scoring games with him on the mound. Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha is back and again will have solid seasons and they have added Miles Mikolas, who was 14-8 with a 2.25 ERA with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan last year. The pen was a major concern for the last year and they have added Luke Gregerson to lock down the closer’s role until Alex Reyes comes back from injury. The pen and offense are improved and ity may be enough to get them in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates finished in 4th place in the Central Division last year and I expect them to finish in 4th this year as well. This is a team in transition and with the top three all being playoff contenders, it will make for a long season in the Steel City. The biggest deletion to the team was Andrew McCutchen, who has been traded to San Francisco. He has been their best offensive player over the year but now has a new home. The Pirates will now turn to Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco to lead them, which are two good players, plus they have added Corey Dickerson, who is a career .280 hitter and has hit 51 homers the last two years for the Rays. They do have a couple of youngsters ready to make an impact in Austin Meadows and Cole Tucker, but still, this will again be one of the worst offensive teams in the league. The Pitching has been led by Gerrit Cole the last few years, but that will not be the case this year as he off to Houston. That leaves the team without out a true number one starter. They still have Ivan Nova and young arms in Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl, but Cole will be missed. The offense will struggle, while the pitching will be middle of the pack and the Pirates will watch the playoffs from the comfort of their own home.
Cincinnati Reds: The Reds have finished in last place in the Central Division in each of the last three years and it looks as if they will finish there once again. The Reds have lost at least 94 games in their last three seasons and they really did little in the offseason to upgrade their team, They lose Zack Cozart, who was one of their best offensive players last year, but they still have Eugenio Suarez, who had a breakout season last year with 26 homers and 82 RBIs, Scooter Gennett, who had 27 homers and 92 RBIs and Joey Votto, who had 94 homers the last three year. Still, they need more help and none was brought in. The pitching really struggled last year and it looks like it will struggle again. Anthony Desclafani will be a starter this year, but he was injured in the preseason and is currently out indefinitely. Brandon Finnegan had injury woes last year and he recently left a preseason game with tightness in his forearm. They are two of their better young arms. The Reds still have Homer Bailey, but he is injury prone and has had ERAs of 6.65 and 6.43 the last two year. The pen will again be one of the worst in the league. The offense has some young stars and they could be very average overall, but it will be the pitching that keeps them in the basement of the Central for the 4th year in a row.
National League West Preview
The National League East used to be a two-team race between the Dodgers and Giants, but now the Giants have slipped back and the Diamondbacks and Rockies have improved greatly to become great threats in the division and in the league. It should be a three-team race this year and while I feel the Dodgers will win the division again, it will not be as easy as last year.
Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers won the West last year and they parlayed that into a trip to the World Series, where they lost to the Astros in a thrilling seven-game series. I expect the Dodgers to repeat as Division champs, but it will not be easy and I also don’t expect them to win their first World Series Title since 1988. When you talk about the Dodgers, you have to start with their pitching, which was the 2nd best in the league and has been one of the best the last few years overall. They have one of the deepest rotations in the league, which is led by Clayton Kershaw, who is in the CY Young conversation every year. They did lose Yu Darvish to the Cubs, but still have Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda, so they should again rank in the top 5 in the league in ERA. The offense lost a couple o big pieces in Curtis Granderson and Adrian Gonzalez, but they did pick up Matt Kemp and they still have Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson and Justin Turner. Turner did break his wrist in the spring and will be out until late May, but still, this offense is looking good and will be even better once Turner returns. The Pen is their weakness, but it is still better than most and while they did lose Brandon Morrow, they have one of the best closers in baseball in Kenley Jansen and they did pick up Scott Alexander from Kansas City, who had a 2.48 ERA with 69 K’s in 58 innings last year. He is one of the better lefty relievers in the game. A division title for the Dodgers, but no World Series.
Colorado Rockies: I will look for the Rockies to steal second place in the division this year. The Rockies had a solid season last year but lost to the Diamondbacks in the National League Wildcard game. The Rockies have been a strong offensive team for years, but finally, they got some very good pitching and that pitching should be even better this time around. The rotation was very young last year as Kyle Freeland Jeff Hoffman, German Marquez, and Antonio Senzatela were all rookies, which makes what they did last year even more impressive ad they finished 17th in the league in ERA. They were led by Jon Gray, who was 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA on the year. They did lose Greg Holland and Pat Neshek from the pen, but they have added Wade Davis, who has been one of the best closers in the game of late. Look for Colorado to flirt with the top 10 in pitching this year. The offense has been no issue for the Rockies and they finished 3rd in the league in scoring last year. They are led by Nolan Arenado, who had 37 homers and 130 RBIs a year ago. Nolan, Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds and Carlos Gonzalez, plus the addition of Chris Iannetta should have them in the top five in scoring once again. This is not a team that is looking to win high-scoring games. They now have some very solid pitching to complement their offense and that makes them a threat in the NL West. I say they grab a wildcard berth and they should make it to at least the NLCS.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona finished 2nd in the division last year, but still they were 11 games out of first. They did beat Colorado in the Wildcard Game but then fell to the Dodgers in three-straight games. Their pitching was very solid last year as they finished 3rd in the league in ERA, but that pitching allowed an average of 7.00 rpg in their four postseason games. This year I expect them to have another solid season, but they will come up just short of a division title or a wildcard slot. The Pitching led them last year and I’ll get to the rotation in a moment, but still, this is a very good offensive team. They did lose J.D. Martinez, who had 29 homers and 65 RBIs for them after coming over in a trade with Detroit, but this team still has plenty of weapons in Paul Goldschmidt (36 homers), Jake Lamb (30 homers), David Peralta and A.J Pollock, plus they have added Alex Avila. I can easily see them being in the top eight in the league in scoring once again. The pitching was a surprise last year and it should be solid again with Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray both off of strong years, plus Patrick Corbin is back after a solid year and they should get a better effort this year from Taijuan Walker. The bullpen loses Fernando Rodney, but they did bring in Brad Boxberger, who has been a solid reliever in his career. Replacing Rodney will be Yoshihisa Hirano, who save 143 for the Orix Buffaloes of the Japan League the last five years. I like the look of this team, but still, will come up just short of making the postseason.
San Francisco Giants: The Giants went just 64-98 last year and it looks like another sub .500 season for them this time around, but it will not be as bad as a year ago. The biggest issue for the Giants the last few years has been their offense and they hope that they addressed that in the offseason by bringing in Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. McCutchen had been one of the best offensive players for the Pirates, while Longoria had been one of the best for the Rays. The two combined for 48 homers for their respective teams last year and they should hepl a San Francisco team that was last in the league in homers a season ago. They also added Austin Jackson, who gives them speed and can score plenty of runs. Those three will join Brandon Belt and Buster Pose to help give San Francisco fans and offense that they can be proud of. The pitching has been very good for them over the years, but they took a step back last year as they finished just 16th in the league in ERA. A big reason for that was the loss of Madison Bumgarner (4-9, 3.32 ERA) early on and he will miss the beginning of this season as he is out until late May. He should have a bounce-back season once he returns. Matt Moore is gone and Jeff Samardzija (9-15, 4.42 ERA) had a rough season, but he is more than capable of having a solid one. I will also look for johnny Cueto to have a bounce-back season as well after he was 8-8 with a 4.52 ERA on the year. The offense should be greatly improved, while the pitching will be improved as well, but the Giants will still fall just short of a .500 record on the year.
San Diego Padres: The Padres finished 4th in the division last year, but I will call for them to finish in last place in the West this year. Still, this will be a team to watch over the next few years as they have the 3rd ranked farm system in the league and that young talent is ready to shine. The offense is always a problem for the Padres and a big part of the reason has been the park they play in, but still, they have not been a great offensive team on the road either. They have a chance to be a decent offensive team this year, especially with the addition of Eric Hosmer, who had been a key piece of the Kansas City Offense for the last few years. He will join rising stars in Manuel Margot, Wil Myers, and Hunter Renfroe to give them what should be their best offense in years, but it still won’t be enough offense to get them out of the basement of the West. the Pitching looks to be their weakness this year, but they do have Clayton Richard and Luis Perdomo, who has potential, while also having great potential is Dinelson Lamet, who should be their ace this year. Overall, the Padres have seven prospects in Baseball Prospectus’ top 50 and 6 of their own top 10 prospects should be on the team at some point this year. They are still a year or two away from challenging for a playoff spot.
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