2018 MLB Preseason Stuff

[Udog]

American League Central betting preview: Twins closing gap with Tribe
Andrew Caley

The Cleveland Indians are deservedly the favorites to their third consecutive American League Central title, but this year will be a little different as the Minnesota Twins are making a push for their throne. Andrew Caley, breaks down the division and makes his season win total picks for each team.

Chicago White Sox (2017: 67-95, +1.25 units, 76-80-6 O/U)

Division odds: 50/1
Season win total: 71.5

Why to bet the White Sox: This is one of the really exciting up-and-coming rosters in the Big Leagues. With guys like Yoan Moncado, Tim Anderson in the field and Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Carson Fulmer in the rotation. Combine those young guns, with just enough veteran presence with Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia and there is a lot to like about this roster.i

Why to not bet the White Sox: Well, pretty much for the same reason to bet them. They are so young, there's no telling how the rigors of a full major league season will affect these youngsters. They're probably a year or two away. Plus, James Shields still anchors this very young rotation and it appears Carlos Rodon won't be ready for the start of the season.

Pick: Under 71.5

Cleveland Indians (2017: 102-60, +6.95 units, 61-91-10 O/U)

Division odds: 1/6
Season win total: 95.5

Why to bet the Indians: First and foremost, the AL Central should be the worst division in baseball this year and the Indians are far and away, the best team of the bunch. The lineup is dangerous led by young stars Fransisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez and have a good mix of veteran talent with the likes of Jason Kipnis and Edwincarnacion. The rotation is anchored by one of the best pitchers in the AL in Corey Kluber and the backend of the bullpen is second to none with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen.

Why to not bet the Indians: If the Indians have a weakness it is depth in the starting lineup so injuries could play a factor. The outfield is a little thin and Michael Brantley (surprise, surprise) is already dealing with an injury. There are also question marks in the starting rotation behind Kluber and Carlos Carassco. Additionally, someone in the Cleveland bullpen will have to setup after losing the versatile and reliable Bryan Shaw to free agency.

Pick: Under 95.5

Detroit Tigers (64-98, -31.28 units, 87-68-7, O/U)

Division odds: 100/1
Season win total: 67.5

Why to bet the Tigers: Umm... Well Miguel Cabrera is still on the team and he's arguably the best right-handed hitter of this generation, so that's something. But seriously, that's about it. Oh, they have the No. 1 pick in this June's amateur draft and they'll (probably) be better than the Marlins.

Why to not bet the Tigers: Well, the rebuild is in full swing. Justin Verlander, Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton among others, are already out the door (Miggy is only still around due to his albatross of a contract). The roster is mostly devoid of talent after the staff picked the roster pretty clean. The Tigers won only 64 games last season and that was when they were trying until the trade deadline. It could be an ugly year and Detroit and they'll (probably) only be better than the Marlins.

Pick: Under 67.5

Kansas City Royals (2017: 80-82 +2.60 units, 76-80-6)

Division odds: 100/1
Season win total: 67.5

Why to bet the Royals: The Royals long-term outlook may be even worse than that of the Tigers, but this year, they may have just enough left in the tank to avoid the basement. Veterans Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon are still around and they managed to bring back third baseman Mike Moustakas on a cheap one-year deal. The starting rotation is also respectable with the likes of Danny Duff, Ian Kennedy and Jason Hammel toeing the rubber.

Why to not bet the Royals: With the days of Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and the elite bullpen a thing of the past, things could go south for the Royals pretty quickly and those remaining veterans could be sold off just as quickly. This lineup already had trouble scoring run last year and their is no help from the farm system coming any time soon.

Pick: Over 67.5

Minnesota Twins (2017: 85-77, +11.48 units, 73-79-10)

Division odds: 7/2
Season win total: 82.5

Why to bet the Twins: The Twins were one of the surprise teams of 2017 becoming the first team in MLB history to make the postseason after losing 100 or more games the previous year. They even surprised themselves by selling at the trade deadline. Since the deadline Minnesota led the MLB in runs scored. Their have a great balance of young studs, like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano and talented vets like Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer. The rotation is solid after bringing in Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn to join the likes of Ervin Santana and Joes Berrios.

Why to not bet the Twins: Well management thought it was a good idea to sell at the trade deadline, so would it be a huge surprise if Minnesota took a bit of a step back 2018? Sano is still rehabing from an offseason injury and reportedly came into camp overweight. He is also probably facing a suspension due to a sexual assault allegation. Sananta could also miss a month with an injury. The bullpen is a weakness. The Twins brought in a bunch of re-tread arms like Fernando Rodney, so there's no telling if there will be improvement there.

Pick: Over 82.5

[Udog]

American League West betting preview: Even with improving competition Astros primed to repeat
Steve Merril

Winning the American League West will be an even tougher task in 2018, with the Angels making some big moves this offseason, none bigger than Shohei Ohtani, and the Mariners on the verge of breaking out. But the Astros are primed to not only defend their division title, but their World Series crown as well. Steve Merril break down the division and makes his regular season win total picks for each team.

Houston Astros (2017: 101-61, +11.72 units, 81-72-9 O/U)

Division odds: 1/5
Season win total: 97.5

Why bet the Astros: Justin Verlander and Dallas Keuchel are a fantastic 1-2 punch that will dominate in the weak AL West. Lance McCullers Jr joins Charlie Morton and Brad Peacock in one of the best rotations in baseball. Morton showed up in a big way last year in the World Series allowing just two runs in two appearances. The bullpen is improved as well with the additions of Hector Rondon and Joe Smith.

Why to not bet the Astros: There are not many reasons to bet against this team with such a strong roster. There is a chance they will suffer some sort of World Series hangover this season. Also, Brian McCann, Evan Gattis and Yuli Gurriel are getting a bit old. Catcher could be a weakness in an overall strong lineup.

Pick: Over 97.5

Los Angeles Angels (2017: 80-82, +1.48 units, 69-82-11 O/U)

Division odds: 6/1
Season win total: 84.5

Why to bet the Angels: Mike Trout has another superstar on the roster in Shohei Ohtani who will potentially take over as the team's ace and could help out in the lineup as well. The squad also added Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart which improves the team's infield. The Angels should be able to score runs on any given night with the new additions.

Why to not bet the Angels: Health and age are the biggest issues. Albert Pujols' effectiveness is decreasing rapidly at 38 years old. The rotation features Garrett Richards (6 starts), Andrew Heaney (5 starts), Tyler Skaggs (16 starts) and Matt Shoemaker (12 starts). The closer role is a question mark along with several roles in the bullpen.

Pick: Under 84.5

Oakland Athletics (2017: 75-87, -2.68 units, 84-73-5 O/U)

Division odds: 40/1
Season win total: 75.5

Why bet the Athletics: Billy Beane is making some shrewd moves that will pay off in the future for Oakland. Stephen Piscotty comes over from St. Louis with a more modest contract and that softens the blow of sending Healy to a division rival. Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have some power and lock down the corner infield positions. The minor leagues are also stocked with prospects who could see some time like A.J. Puk and Dustin Fowler.

Why to not bet the Athletics: Like several of the other teams in this division, Oakland's rotation last year was ravaged by injury issues. Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea and Daniel Mengden all spent time on the disabled list in 2017. Jharel Cotton sported a 5.58 ERA last season which was a regression from his solid start in September of 2016.

Pick: Over 75.5

Seattle Mariners (2017: 78-84, -11.37 units, 76-79-7 O/U)

Division odds: 10/1
Season win total: 81.5

Why to bet the Mariners: Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz are a great starting point for any lineup. Seattle added Dee Gordon which gives them a legit leadoff hitter that will steal bases. An underrated pickup is Ryon Healy who comes over from Oakland. Healy had 25 home runs for the Athletics. After a brief stretch where he struggled, Edwin Diaz took over at closer and picked up 34 saves.

Why to not bet the Mariners: Seattle used 17 different starting pitchers and 34 different relievers last season. Outside of James Paxton and Felix Hernandez, the rotation is pretty shaky. A lot of the offseason acquisitions they made were geared towards improving their offensive lineup, when they really should have spent some money on the pitching staff.

Pick: Under 81.5

Texas Rangers (2017: 78-84, -1.27 units, 74-82-6 O/U)

Division odds: 35/1
Season win total: 76.5

Why to bet the Rangers: The core of the lineup is back and if Adrian Beltre is healthy, they should put up plenty of runs. Beltre played just 94 games in 2017, but still picked up his 3,000th career hit. Nomar Mazara drove in a team-high 101 runs and Joey Gallo may finally hit his potential. If Rougned Odor figures it out and gets back to his 2016 form, then this lineup will be dangerous for opponents.

Why to not bet the Rangers: The team is considering a six-man rotation and that's upsetting the only decent starter they have in Cole Hamels. The lefthander is nowhere near the ace he used to be in Philadelphia. Doug Fister, Mike Minor and Matt Moore are not the answers either. The Texas bullpen had an awful 4.76 ERA last year and will likely struggle again this season.

Pick: Under 76.5

[Udog]

National League East betting preview: Nats in a class by themselves
Matt Fargo

Atlanta Braves (2017: 72-90, -4.11 units, 81-76-5 O/U)

Division odds: 20/1
Season win total: 75.5

Why bet the Braves: The Braves could be a team on the rise as they have gone from 67 to 68 to 72 wins over the last three years. The offense finished sixth in hits and average, so they were productive at the plate and that was with an injured Freddie Freeman, who played only 117 games and a slumping Dansby Swanson who is still projected to be an All-Star. Ender Inciarte, who made the All-Star game last year, is also a rising star. No. 1 starter Julio Teheran should bounce back after a poor 2017 season.

Why not bet the Braves: After Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz and Brandon McCarthy are No. 2 and No. 3 while the backend of the rotation is still undecided, so the Atlanta starting pitching could struggle. Last season, Atlanta finished with the fourth worst ERA in the National League. The offense got on base but was unable to score as Atlanta was No. 21 in runs scored and No. 28 in home runs so they need to power up. This is a still a team that is young and rebuilding and will hit some bumps along the way.

Pick: Over 75.5

Miami Marlins (2017: 77-85, -6.44 units, 84-67-11 O/U)

Division odds: 200/1
Season win total: 64.5

Why bet the Marlins: Expectations are so low in Miami, no one will want anything to do with the Marlins so there will be value. They still have J.T. Realmuto, Justin Bour and received Starlin Castro in the Giancarlo Stanton trade so the offense should be sufficient. Miami was a starter or two away from competing last season and now they will rally around Jose Urena, who went 14-8 with a 3.82 ERA and Adam Conley, who was battling injuries last season and should have a bounce back season.

Why not bet the Marlins: They had a great core of offensive players to build around but a complete fire sale washed out an offense that underachieved for the most part with what they had. Unproven players will have to carry the load on an offense that had only 194 home runs with 30 percent of those coming from Stanton. The top end of the rotation can be good but there is no proven star and the back end will struggle while the bullpen finished No. 21 in ERA and has no proven closer.

Pick: Under 64.5

New York Mets (2017: 70-92, -30.04 units, 90-60-12 O/U)

Division odds: 6/1
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Mets: After making the postseason in 2016, the Mets had high expectations last season but disappointed with just 70 wins, 17 victories fewer than the previous year. To their credit, they were killed by injuries, mostly to the starting rotation but should be improved this season based on what we have seen in the past. New York was horrible at the plate as it finished No. 28 in hitting and No. 26 in slugging but signed Adrian Gonzalez, Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier.

Why not bet the Mets: This was one of the best starting rotations in baseball a couple years ago but now it is as fragile as ever. Noah Syndergaard, made only seven starts because of a torn lat, Matt Harvey was a disaster, Zach Wheeler is still recovering from Tommy John surgery while Steven Matz had elbow surgery toward the end of the season. The success of this team will be based on health while the bullpen was No. 29 in ERA and not much was done to improve that situation.

Pick: Over 81.5

Philadelphia Phillies (2017: 66-96, -11.79 units, 71-77-14 O/U)

Division odds: 10/1
Season win total: 77.5

Why bet the Phillies: While the Phillies win total decreased by five games from 2016, it can be argued they were not much worse as after going 28-23 in one-run games two years ago, they lost 36 one-run games last season. Philadelphia blew 24 saves but the bullpen was shored up in the offseason and the starting rotation is loaded with young talent, highlighted by Aaron Nola and they just added Jake Arietta. On offense, Rhys Hoskins is a future star and the signing of Carlos Santana is a big upgrade.

Why not bet the Phillies: Hoskins, who played just 50 games and Santana will bolster the offense but after those two, there are a lot of gaps with cautious upside. Odubel Herrera had a down year, JP Crawford struggled, and questions still linger with Maikel Franco. Arietta is a good veteran pickup, but his ERA, WHIP and BAA have increased each of the last three years. The bullpen should be better on paper but that is no guarantee and the closer is an unknown named Hector Neris.

Pick: Under 77.5

Washington Nationals (2017: 97-65, +5.73 units, 69-82-11 O/U)

Division odds: 1/5
Season win total: 94.5

Why bet the Nationals: Washington still possesses the best offense and pitching in the division and by a large margin which is why it is an overwhelming favorite to win the National League East once again. With the pending free agency of Bryce Harper and a few other lesser names, this is a big year for Washington to take the leap and get past the NLDS. Not getting out of the first round the past two seasons will have the Nationals motivated and the only thing standing in their way is a completely healthy Mets rotation.

Why not bet the Nationals: Despite finishing 32 games over .500 last season, the Nationals netted less than six units of profit and because of the same roster, they will be overvalued once again. The starting pitching has three top end studs and were -200 or higher favorites 23 times and lost money in the process. Gio Gonzalez had a career year while Stephen Strasburg has been injury prone so there could be some regression. The rest of the division is getting better, sans Miami, so 2018 may be more challenging.

Pick: Over 94.5

[Udog]

National League Central betting preview: Cubs still the class of the division
Andrew Caley

The Chicago Cubs had a down season in 2017 and still went on a run after the All-Star break and won the division easily. The Cardinals are always lurking and the Brewers made some nice additions to their lineup, but realistically this is Chicago's division once again unless they trip up badly.

Chicago Cubs (2017: 92-70, -11.98 units, 76-79-7 O/U)

Division odds: 5/12
Season win total: 93.5

Why to bet the Cubs: Chicago hopefully has finally recovered from the season-long World Series hangover that seemed to loom over the team last year. That should allow the Cubs to re-focus and fulfil their potential, which is another World Series title. The lineup is the same (you know all the names) and absolutely loaded. The pitching staff lost starter Jake Arrieta and closer Wade Davis and did an OK job of replacing them with Yu Darvish and Brandon Morrow.

Why to not bet the Cubs: Chicago will need guys like Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell to have bounce back years and it would be nice if Jayson Hayward could find his swing again. The bullpen is anchored by Morrow, so here's hoping Dave Roberts didn't leave his arm hanging by a thread. Sometimes manager Joe Maddon is too smart for his own good, getting too cute with his lineups and shifts.

Pick: Over 93.5

Cincinnati Reds (2017: 68-94, -15.92, 83-73-6 O/U)

Division odds: 30/1
Season win total: 73.5

Why to bet the Reds: The rebuild in Cincinnati is starting to take form. No. 2 overall pick in 2016 Nick Senzel looks like a stud and is close to making the big league roster, while youngsters Anthony Desclafani and Luis Castillo anchor the rotation. Oh, and Joey Votto is really, really good at baseball. The former MVP slashed .320/.454/.578 with 36 home runs and 100 RBI and shows no signs of slowing down.

Why to not bet the Reds: While the rebuild is starting to take form, it's definitely far from a finished product. Cincinnati had the worst team ERA in baseball in 2017 and most of the faces on the pitching staff remain the same. The lineup is thin behind the big bats and while Billy Hamilton still has other-worldly speed, he hasn't figured out how to get on base. He still hits leadoff everyday and has a career OBP of .298. Not good.

Pick: Under 73.5

Milwaukee Brewers (2017: 86-76, 18.01 units, 68-87-7 O/U)

Division odds: 7/1
Season win total: 83.5

Why to bet the Brewers: Milwaukee had a breakout campaign in 2017, falling just a game short of the postseason and the team and front office look poised to take the next step. The Brew Crew led the National League in home runs thanks to breakout seasons from Eric Thames and Domingo Santana and they added even more pop and balance to the lineup bringing in outfielders Chirstian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. The offense can now be one of the deepest in the NL.

Why to not bet the Brewers: Quite simply, the rotation. While Milwaukee finished a respectable fifth in NL in starter ERA, there is nothing really impressive here. Chase Anderson and Zach Davies had somewhat surprising seasons and Jimmy Nelson could miss half the year recovering from shoulder surgery. They also seemed to be linked to every major free agent pitcher on the market and have struck out on all counts. Instead, they've had to bring in guys like Yovani Gallardo and Wade Miley.

Pick: Over 83.5

Pittsburgh Pirates (2017: 75-87, -8.30 units, 63-92-7 O/U)

Division odds: 30/1
Season win total: 74.5

Why to bet the Pirates: This really depends if you look at the Pirates with a glass half-full or half-empty point of view. The likes of Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison are still around to anchor the lineup for the Pirates and they mix in some impressive youngster at the corners in Josh Bell and Colin Moran. Adding Corey Dickerson was an underrated move, while the rotation is nothing to write home about is solid.

Why to not bet the Pirates: Glass half empty. With franchise faces Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole already out the door, the selloff could just be starting. This lineup, which is basically subbing Dickerson for McCutchen, scored the third fewest runs in the majors last season. And Jung-ho Kang's status remains unclear. The bullpen is full of unknown and unproven names, which should make late game situations interesting.

Pick: Under 74.5

St. Louis Cardinals (2017: 83-79, -8.74 units, 81-73-8 O/U)

Division odds: 7/2
Season win total: 86.5

Why to bet the Cardinals: Well, they haven't missed the postseason in three straight seasons since before 2000 and 83 wins where they had a better run differential than two playoff teams, was considered a down year. After trading for Marcell Ozuna, the Cardinals have one of the strongest outfields in the majors with Tommy Phan in center and Dexter Fowler in right. They're aren't many holes in the lineup, the rotation can easily be well above average and the bullpen is full of excellent arms.

Why to not bet the Cardinals: Injuries, injuries, injuries. Pham and Fowler need to avoid injury because the Cardinals outfield depth is now gone. Matt Carpenter seems to always be dealing with some nagging injury now and needs to have bounce-back campaign and Yadier Molina is another year older. In the rotation, injuries have sapped Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha of much of their effectiveness and they'll have to replace a lot of innings with Lance Lynn and Mike Leake now gone.

Pick: Over 86.5

[Udog]

National League West betting preview: Can anyone step up and challenge the Dodgers?

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear favorites to win another National League West division title and they have very few weaknesses or question marks on their opening day roster. The D-Backs, Rockies, and Giants all come into the 2018 season with the potential to compete for a Wild Card spot, but can any of them take that next step and challenge the Dodgers?

Arizona Diamondbacks (2017: 93-69, +16.56 units, 73-81-8 O/U)

Division odds: +600
Season win total: 85.5

Why bet the Diamondbacks: Paul Goldschmidt is one of the best hitters in baseball and leads a lineup that has enough pop and punch to keep up with teams in high-scoring Chase Field. If Robbie Ray can harness his talent and walk less hitters, then he can become an ace for this staff.

Why not bet the Diamondbacks: The loss of Fernando Rodney means the team has to find a consistent closer. Rodney often made things interesting in the ninth inning, but usually ended up getting the job done. Archie Bradley was fantastic as a middle reliever, but must now take the next step. J.D. Martinez departed which means the outfield has to make up for his lost production.

Pick: Under 85.5

Colorado Rockies (2017: 87-75, +12.44 units, 64-91-7 O/U)

Division odds: +850
Season win total: 81.5

Why bet the Rockies: The offense is pretty much intact and features some incredible balance. Charlie Blackmon set a MLB record last year with 104 RBI out of the leadoff spot. Nolan Arenado hits well and has five Gold Gloves. Wade Davis is a solid replacement for Greg Holland in the closer role.

Why not bet the Rockies: There is uncertainty in the pitching rotation with all the youth coming back. They had the 17th best ERA and allowed hitters to have a batting average of .264, but they still lack a proven veteran in the leadership role. Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson, Kyle Freeland and Jeff Hoffman all struggled at times last season.

Pick: Over 81.5

Los Angeles Dodgers (2017: 104-58, +6.98 units, 78-79-5 O/U)

Division odds: -250
Season win total: 96.5

Why bet the Dodgers: Coming off a 104 win season, Los Angeles has all the pieces to make the run to first place once again. Cody Bellinger was a revelation with 39 HRs and 97 RBI in just 132 games with Los Angeles. Clayton Kershaw is just over 30 years old and is still as good as ever. Kenley Jansen is probably the best closer in baseball.

Why not bet the Dodgers: Not a major problem, but the team's middle relief could be better. They Dodgers will likely rely on four left-handers in the rotation, so there's not as much balance there. Los Angeles could suffer from the post World Series loss hangover.

Pick: Over 96.5

San Diego Padres (2017: 71-91, +3.48 units, 81-73-8 O/U)

Division odds: +5000
Season win total: 71.5

Why bet the Padres: The addition of Eric Hosmer will help an anemic lineup and will give Wil Myers the opportunity to see more pitches. Manuel Margot is solid as a leadoff man and Brad Hand performed well at closer, converting 21 of 26 save opportunities. The farm system is deep and we could see some good prospects come up in 2018.

Why not bet the Padres: There are still a lot of holes in this offensive lineup and they will go through slumps. The rotation is mediocre at best as Dinelson Lamet led the way last year with a weak 4.57 ERA. The middle relievers are also an area of concern this season.

Pick: Under 71.5

San Francisco Giants (2017: 64-98, -37.78 units, 74-76-12 O/U)

Division odds: +650
Season win total: 83.5

Why bet the Giants: Madison Bumgarner will not have another losing record after last season when injury forced him out for nearly three months. Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen are solid additions who will likely benefit from their new surroundings - both players have shown the ability to succeed during their careers. Buster Posey will appreciate the new protection in the lineup.

Why not bet the Giants: This team is old and if they struggle again this season, they could be doing a lot of selling in August. The rotation behind Bumgarner is very shaky with Jeff Samardzija coming off a 9-15 W/L season. The offensive lineup lacked power at home last season with only 48 home runs.

Pick: Under 83.5