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**Udog** · 10-18-2017, 07:20 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

More NBA over/under win totals for the coming season:

Minnesota Timberwolves 48.5

Miami Heat 43.5

Philadelphia 76ers 42.5

New York Knicks 30.5

Brooklyn Nets 28.5

Atlanta Hawks 25.5

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Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) 5:15 into the Boston Celtics’ season, Gordon Hayward severely injured his leg/ankle when he came down on an attempted alley-oop. It was a gruesome injury, reminiscent of Jason Kendall or Joe Theismann’s grotesque leg injuries.

12) Damn, this is Lebron James’ 15th year in the NBA? Time flies. I remember sitting in a bar having dinner, watching his high school game that ESPN showed. Think Bill Walton was the TV analyst that night; people were excited that Lebron scored 31 points.

Hell, I thought, if he’s going to be in the NBA next year, he SHOULD score 31 points in a high school game, shouldn’t he?

Obviously, Lebron has outperformed those huge expectations; good for him.

11) By the way, sounds like pretty soon, kids will able to go straight from high school to the NBA once again, which helps everyone, except veterans trying to hang on in the G-League.

10) Indianapolis Colts in the fourth quarter this season: they’ve been outscored 85-22, allowing 1,034 yards on 139 plays, an average of 7.4 yards per play.

Colts are 2-4, but they haven’t trailed at halftime since Week 1 against the Rams.

9) Tennessee Titans have 7 takeaways in six games, but they’re the only team in NFL that hasn’t scored a touchdown after one of their takeaways.

Titans-Colts game Monday night had no punts in the first half, the first game in NFL this season without a first half punt.

8) Injured Vikings’ QB Teddy Bridgewater is practicing this week, as he comes back from his severe knee injury; Minnesota has three weeks to decide whether to activate Bridgewater or IR him for the rest of the season. Bridgewater and Sam Bradford are both in the last year of their contracts; Vikings have some interesting decisions ahead of them.

7) Chicago Bulls Bobby Portis and Nikola Mirotic got into a fight today at practice and Mirotic wound up with broken bones in his face; he’s going to be out for a few weeks, at least.

Curious how the analytics geniuses take this into account when they measure Portis, Mirotic as players. There is a human element to sports that can never be quantified— these guys live and travel together for months at a time. Part of being a good teammate is staying out of fights that send yourself or teammates to the hospital.

6) Best red zone offenses in NFL:
Packers 5.68 pts/possession, Eagles 5.56, Cowboys 5.33, Texans 5.25— Aaron Rodgers is gone for the year, so going forward, Green Bay’s numbers figure to drop dramatically.

5) Best offenses on drives starting 75+ yards from end zone:
Saints 2.47, Chiefs 2.46, Titans 2.37, Patriots 2.16

Worst offenses on drives starting 75+ yards from end zone (includes points lost on TD”s scored by the opposing defense):
Colts 0.42, Bengals 0.51, Buccaneers 0.91, Lions 0.97

4) Most plays of 20+ yards this season:
Rams 31, Vikings 30, Patriots/Cardinals 29, Chiefs 27

3) Most TD’s on plays of 20+ yards:
Raiders 8 (out of 13 total TD’s), Chiefs 7 (18 total TD’s), Titans 7 (13 total TD’s), Jets 6 (11 total TD’s), Lions 6 (14 total TD’s)

2) Baseball update:
AL: New York 6, Houston 4— Astros’ bullpen imploded; series is tied 2-2.
NL: Dodgers 6, Cubs 1– Chicago is going down meekly.

1) One of the best days of the year for me is when the Blue Ribbon Yearbook arrives at my door every October; the bible of college basketball, Blue Ribbon has a ton of useful information in it, and it got here Monday. If you like college basketball, it is well worth your time.

**Udog** · 10-18-2017, 07:35 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, October 18

Houston @ New York
Astros are 7-4 against New York this season, splitting six games in the Bronx. Houston scored total of nine runs in first four games in this series, all won by the home team.

Keuchel is 4-1, 1.76 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Astros are 10-2 in his road starts. He is 1-0, 0.69 in two starts vs NY this season and is 4-0, 1.69 in five career playoff games (4 starts).

Tanaka is 2-1, 0.90 in his last three starts, all of which stayed under. New York won his last five home starts. He is 0-2, 11.74 in two starts vs Houston this year and is 1-2, 3.33 in three career playoff starts.

Dodgers @ Cubs
Dodgers are 7-2 vs Chicago this season, 3-0 in this series; they shut Cubs out in 3 of the 7 wins. Home team won seven of nine series games (under 7-2).

Wood is making his first postseason appearance this year; he is 2-0, 2.00 in his last three starts. Dodgers are 8-5 in his road starts this year. Wood is 0-0 in four relief stints in playoffs, giving up 8 runs in 7.1 IP— this is his first playoff start. He is 0-0, 1.85 in two starts (8.2 IP) against the Cubs this season.

Arrieta is 0-3, 6.28 in his last four starts; under is 8-6-2 in his last 16 starts. Cubs are 6-5 in his home starts. Arrieta allowed four runs in six IP in his only start against the Dodgers this year; he is 4-3, 3.33 in eight career playoff starts.

MLB

Wednesday, October 18

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Trend Report
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HOUSTON @ NY YANKEES
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games when playing NY Yankees
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

LA DODGERS @ CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-18-2017, 01:24 PM

Wednesday's MLB League Championship Series Betting Preview and Odds

The baseball day starts off with a critical Game 5 of the ALCS in The Bronx between the Astros and Yankees, and wraps up with the defending World Series champion Cubs trying to stave off a sweep at the hands of the Dodgers at Wrigley Field.

Houston Astros at New York Yankees (HOU -115, NYY +105, Total: 7.5)

Series tied 2-2

The New York Yankees will take another crack at Houston Astros ace Dallas Keuchel when the teams tangle in a critical Game 5 of their American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. A two-run seventh inning and four-run eighth propelled New York to a stirring 6-4 comeback victory in Game 4 on Tuesday, knotting the best-of-seven matchup at two wins apiece.

Slugger Aaron Judge, limited to one single in seven at-bats in back-to-back losses at Houston, is 3-for-6 with five RBIs in the two games in the Bronx after beginning the comeback with a solo homer and delivering the game-tying RBI double in the eighth. Judge had that one single at Minute Maid Park against Keuchel, but that was one of just four hits the left-hander allowed in seven scoreless frames of the Game 1 victory. Keuchel is 6-2 with a 1.09 ERA in eight career starts against New York in the regular season and playoffs combined and won his only prior postseason turn at Yankee Stadium with six scoreless innings in the 2015 AL wild-card game. The Yankees will counter with Masahiro Tanaka, who allowed a pair of runs opposite Keuchel in the series opener.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, FS1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (2-0, 0.71 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (1-1, 1.38)

Keuchel is 4-0 with a 1.69 ERA in five career postseason games (four starts) and struck out 10 Yankees in the series-opening win. Both of this year's playoff outings have taken place at home, but the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner was much more human on the road during the regular season - going 5-5 with a 4.24 ERA and allowing opponents to produce a .720 OPS, compared to .513 at home. Keuchel's last appearance away from home in the playoffs was in relief in Game 5 of the ALDS in 2015, when he was tagged for three runs in one inning.

Like Keuchel, Tanaka has had better fortune at home, and he finished the regular season by going 5-1 with a 1.29 ERA over a six-start stretch at Yankee Stadium. The 28-year-old has given up two runs and seven hits - no home runs - over 13 innings this postseason. Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel recorded RBI singles in Game 1 against Tanaka, who has received a total of one run of support in his three career playoff starts.

TRENDS:

* Astros are 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games.
* Astros are 11-2 in Keuchel's last 13 road starts.
* Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 playoff home games.
* Yankees are 39-16 in Tanaka's last 55 home starts.
* Over is 5-1 in Astros' last 6 playoff road games.
* Over is 6-1 in Yankees' last 7 League Championship home games.
* Astros are 6-1 in Keuchel's last 7 starts vs. Yankees.
* Yankees are 0-5 in Tanaka's last 5 starts vs. Astros.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the road chalk Astros with 63 percent of the picks. Over is picking up 51 percent of the totals wagers.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (LAD +101, CHC -109, Total: 9.5)

Dodgers lead series 3-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win away from ending the Chicago Cubs’ reign and getting to the World Series for the first time since 1988. The visiting Dodgers turn to Alex Wood on Wednesday as they look to continue the dominant pitching that has led them to a 3-0 lead in the National League Championship Series and complete a sweep over the Cubs.

The Cubs have scored first in every game of the series, but they haven’t crossed the plate again in any of them. Kyle Schwarber staked Chicago to a 1-0 lead in Game 3 with a first-inning home run, and it seemed the team's bats might be poised to break out of their slump, but Yu Darvish settled in after a rocky opening frame and the Dodgers’ bullpen continued its domination in the series. Los Angeles relievers have not allowed a run in their last 16 2/3 innings and have given up only two hits in the matchup. The Dodgers also remained hot at the plate, as Chris Taylor and Andre Ethier homered in their 6-1 win on Tuesday, giving the club eight blasts in the series and 11 in its six postseason games - all victories.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Alex Wood (2017: 16-3, 2.72 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Jake Arrieta (0-1, 0.00)

Wood will be making his first postseason start after four less-than-stellar relief outings. The 26-year-old allowed eight runs - four earned - in 5 1/3 innings over his first three postseason appearances before working two scoreless frames out of the bullpen against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. Wood is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in eight career regular-season games (five starts) versus Chicago.

Arrieta is 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA in eight postseason starts over the last three seasons. The 31-year-old lost his only start in the NL Division Series against Washington despite allowing only one unearned run and two hits over four innings, and the Dodgers beat him in last year’s NLCS by tagging him for four runs over five frames. Arrieta is 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in five career regular-season starts against Los Angeles.

TRENDS:

* Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 playoff games.
* Dodgers are 18-4 in Wood's last 22 starts.
* Cubs are 1-7 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Dodgers' last 8 vs. National League Central.
* Under is 7-1 in Cubs' last 8 games following a loss.
* Dodgers are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago.

**Udog** · 10-18-2017, 01:28 PM

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, October 18

LA Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

Game 967-968
October 18, 2017 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Wood) 15/434
Chicago Cubs
(Arrieta) 16.685
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-110
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-110); Under

Houston @ NY Yankees

Game 969-970
October 18, 2017 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Keuchel) 17.000
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 18.814
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-125
8
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(+105); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, October 18

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LA DODGERS (110 - 58) at CHICAGO CUBS (95 - 75) - 9:05 PM
ALEX WOOD (L) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 7-2 (+5.3 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+6.1 Units)

ALEX WOOD vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
WOOD is 1-2 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.24 and a WHIP of 1.560.
His team's record is 1-4 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-1. (+2.8 units)

JAKE ARRIETA vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
ARRIETA is 1-4 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.25 and a WHIP of 1.028.
His team's record is 1-5 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-2. (+1.6 units)

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HOUSTON (106 - 64) at NY YANKEES (97 - 75) - 5:05 PM
DALLAS KEUCHEL (L) vs. MASAHIRO TANAKA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 52-33 (+16.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 104-63 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 69-34 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 52-35 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TANAKA is 24-7 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 106-64 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 27-17 (+8.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 54-31 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 38-21 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 83-39 (+26.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 41-21 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
HOUSTON is 21-11 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-4 (+2.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
7 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.7 Units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
KEUCHEL is 6-2 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 1.09 and a WHIP of 0.780.
His team's record is 6-2 (+3.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.4 units)

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
TANAKA is 0-4 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 7.62 and a WHIP of 1.517.
His team's record is 1-5 (-4.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

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Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/18

Wednesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/18

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