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**Udog** · 10-16-2017, 08:38 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 6 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Atlanta Falcons, -11.5 (644)- L

5) Los Angeles Rams, +2.5 (701)- W

4) Denver Broncos, -11.5 (716)- L

3) Detroit Lions, +5 (779)- L

2) Green Bay Packers, -3 (970)- L

1) Pittsburgh Steelers, +4.5 (993)- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 15-21

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Eagles 28, Panthers 23— Philly’s first two TD drives were 12-17 yards; they improve to 5-1 and now have 11 days until their next game. Eagles are 3-1 on road; their only loss was to the Chiefs. Newton threw for 325 yards but threw three INT’s; guys on TV wondered if he hurt his shoulder on the play when he dove, trying to get the ball into the end zone. Road team covered all six Panther games this season.

Dolphins 20, Falcons 17— Atlanta led 17-0 at the half, then didn’t score in 2nd half, running 23 plays for 100 yards on four empty drives. Miami went TD-TD-FG-FG on their second half drives, after scoring 3 offensive TD’s on 46 drives in their first 4.5 games. Falcons are now 4-12 as home favorites under Quinn. AFC East road teams are 8-2 vs spread outside the division.

Vikings 23, Packers 10— So you’ve got Aaron Rodgers on your fantasy team, or you bet the Packers or are just a Packer fan; on one play, everything goes up in smoke, when Rodgers leaves in first quarter with a broken collarbone. Case Keenum is way better than Brett Hundley, as far as backup QB’s go. Next week, Hundley will become only the 7th starting QB for Green Bay in the last 25 years- since ’08, Packers are 3-5-1 without Rodgers, not including two other games they lost when he got hurt in the first quarter.

Saints 52, Lions 38— One of strangest games in NFL history; Detroit scored a defensive TD and had a punt return for a TD, yet they trailed 45-10 with 6:10 left in 3rd quarter. Then with 5:20 to go in the game, after being down 45-10, Lions had the ball down only 45-38.

New Orleans defense scored three TD’s in this game; when they were on the field, they scored 21 points and the Lion offense scored 24. In last three games, all wins. Saints have 9 takeaways (+6), after having zero takeaways in their first two games, both losses.

Patriots 24, Jets 17— At 1:48 Sunday afternoon, Josh McCown was 11-15/149 passing with two TD’s, as Jets led 14-0; McCown wound up 31-47/354 but a key call on a goal line fumble by the Jets cost Gang Green a huge TD. The play was very similar to Todd Gurley’s goal line fumble against Seattle LW, involving the pylon and the player recovering his fumble.

Jets gained 408 yards but turned ball over three times; they covered on a FG with 3:40 left- they’re 13-5 vs spread in last 18 games as a home underdog. Gronkowski caught two TD passes for New England.

Redskins 26, 49ers 24— Niners became 5th team in first six weeks of season to bench their QB for non-injury reasons; in other words, because the guy sucked. Iowa alum Beathard is grandson of former Redskins’ GM Bobby Beathard; he was 19-36/245 in his NFL debut. 49ers may be 0-6, but their last five losses were by 3-2-3-3-2 points- they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. Washington is 5-11 vs spread in its last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bears 27, Ravens 24 OT— Baltimore scored two TD’s on special teams, and still lost- their offense averaged 3.8 ypa, gained 291 yards, turned ball over 3 times. In last six days, Chicago has four TD passes; one each by the punter and RB Cohen, two by rookie QB Trubisky. Bobby Rainey had a 96-yard kickoff return for a Raven TD, the first kickoff return for a TD in the NFL this year. Ravens are +8 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in their losses.

Texans 33, Browns 17— Deshaun Watson woke up on draft day last spring with a text from Browns’ coach Hue Jackson, telling him to “be ready”. Then Cleveland passed on Watson; they are now 6-12 vs spread in their last 18 games as a road underdog.

Meanwhile, Houston scored 33-57-34-33 points in their last four games behind rookie QB Watson, a player the Browns could’ve taken themselves. I went to a damn state college, but even I know that quarterback is an important position in football— you need a good one.

Cardinals 38, Buccaneers 33— Arizona led 31-0, KO’d Bucs’ QB Winston (shoulder), but then Tampa Bay roared back behind backup QB Fitzpatrick, scoring four TD’s on their last six drives, but they never got ball back with chance to take lead. Cardinals averaged 11.3 ypa, scored 31 points on five red zone drives- they head to England next to play the Rams.

For the week, team over/unders are 13-13 heading into the Monday night game.

Rams 27, Jaguars 17— Special teams, special teams, special teams. John Fassel is the Rams’ special teams coach— his dad used to coach the Giants. When they fired him, he was replaced by Tom Coughlin, who now runs the Jacksonville franchise. Rams ran opening kick back for a TD, then blocked a punt for a TD later in the game.

Leonard Fournette’s first carry was a 75-yard TD; rest of the day, he ran ball 20 times for 55 yards, before leaving with a sprained ankle. Jaguars are +11 in turnovers in their three wins, -1 in their three losses.

Rams were held to 20-16 points in their two losses; they scored 27+ in their four wins.

Steelers 19, Chiefs 13— First half yardage: Pittsburgh 216, Kansas City -21. Despite that, KC trailed only 19-13 with 3:40 left when a bad pass by Roethlisberger took an unfortunate bounce off a defender’s hand and into Antonio Brown’s hands, were he scored the game-clinching TD.

Chiefs scored 17 TD’s in their first five games; they scored one here and rushed for only 28 yards- they lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position. Since start of LY, Chiefs are 0-3 vs Pittsburgh, 17-3 vs everyone else.

Chargers 17, Raiders 16— Five of six Charger game have been decided by 5 or less points; they won their last two games, both on road. Rivers found TE Henry with couple of key passes to keep game-winning drive alive- they kicked FG as time expired to win the game. Novak is their third kicker in six games, by the way.

Oakland lost its last four games, scoring 10-10-17-16 points; Carr played despite his back being not fully healed. Raiders ran a lot of shorter pass patterns so Carr wouldn’t be subjected to hits from linemen— thats why Amani Cooper’s numbers were down in this game.

Giants 23, Broncos 10— New York gets its first win of the year as 12-point underdogs; their reshuffled offensive line paved way for 146 rushing yards, second week in row they ran for 145+ yards. Siemian threw an awful pick-6 right before the half that broke the game open.

Denver was -3 in turnovers; NFL teams are 4-33 this season when they’re -2 or worse in TO’s. Giants play their next three games vs NFC West teams; Seahawks-Rams-49ers, with a bye mixed in there.

**Udog** · 10-16-2017, 08:57 AM

Monday's ALCS Playoff Betting Preview And Odds: Astros at Yankees

Houston Astros at New York Yankees (HOU +115, NYY -125, O/U 8.5)

Astros lead series 2-0

The margin of error in the first two games of the American League Championship Series was razor thin, with the Houston Astros managing to come out on top in each contest to take a commanding lead in the best-of-seven matchup. The New York Yankees will try to turn the tide in their favor when they host Game 3 on Monday.

The Astros earned 2-1 wins in each of the first two games, with Game 2's victory coming only after Jose Altuve scampered around the bases from first on a Carlos Correa's double and scored when Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez was unable to handle the relay throw from shortstop Didi Gregorius. "Both sides are really, really emphasizing staying in the game and just continuing to fight because it can shift in a heartbeat," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "Just when you feel good about where you're at, it can shift back to momentum the other way. So it's postseason baseball at its best." Sanchez (0-for-7, five strikeouts) and Aaron Judge (1-for-7, three strikeouts) are enduring a tough series at the plate for New York, but the team has no plans to change its batting order. "I'm going to stick with the same lineup because things can turn really quickly," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "There's a lot of guys that struggle in the postseason. That's just what it is. If you just start moving people around trying to play a hot hand, it doesn't necessarily work."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FS1

INJURY REPORT:

Astros - CF J. Marisnick (Out For Season, Thumb), SP D. Paulino (Out For Season, Suspension), RP J. Gustave (Out For Season, Elbow).

Yankees - SP L. Severino (day-to-day, Shoulder), SP L. Cessa (Out For Season, Ribs), SP M. Pineda (Out For Season, Elbow).

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros RH Charlie Morton (0-0, 4.15 ERA) vs. Yankees LH CC Sabathia (0-0, 3.72)

Morton started the clinching game of the AL Division Series at Boston last Monday but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. The New Jersey native surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4. Morton earned a victory at New York on May 14, when he struck out 10 while allowing four runs on four hits and four walks in 5 2/3 frames.

Sabathia is coming off a performance in a clinching ALDS game as well and also lasted only 4 1/3 innings in Cleveland. The veteran registered nine strikeouts without walking a batter prior to his exit and was making his second ALDS start after working 5 1/3 solid frames in Game 2. Sabathia is 9-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 21 career postseason appearances - 20 starts - and is facing the Astros for the first time since posting a win in Houston on July 26, 2016.

TRENDS:

* Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 League Championship games.
* Astros are 4-0 in Morton's last 4 starts.
* Yankees are 1-10 in their last 11 League Championship games.
* Yankees are 13-3 in Sabathia's last 16 home starts.
* Over is 6-0 in Astros' last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 starts vs. American League West.
* Home team is 45-15 in Cederstrom's last 60 games behind home plate.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Yankees at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is picking up 64 percent of the totals action.

**Udog** · 10-16-2017, 09:08 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 16

Houston @ NY Yankees

Game 909-910
October 16, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Morton) 16.975
NY Yankees
(Sabathia) 18.839
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-125
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-125); Over

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 16

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HOUSTON (106 - 62) at NY YANKEES (95 - 75) - 7:05 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 50-50 (-17.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 51-33 (+15.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 24-8 (+12.9 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 67-34 (+20.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 50-35 (+13.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SABATHIA is 20-9 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 15-7 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 26-13 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 10-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
SABATHIA is 10-4 (+7.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
HOUSTON is 106-62 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 27-15 (+10.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 54-29 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 38-19 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 33-19 (+10.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 37-22 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MORTON is 29-11 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 7-2 (+4.6 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

CHARLIE MORTON vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
MORTON is 1-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.68 and a WHIP of 1.184.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SABATHIA is 2-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.292.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 16

Houston @ New York
Astros are 7-2 against New York this season, winning 3 of 4 in the Bronx.

Morton is 3-0, 2.38 in his last four starts (under 4-0); Houston is 6-4 in his road starts. Morton won his only ’17 start vs NY, allowing four runs in 5.2 IP. He is 0-1, 3.60 in two career playoff starts.

Sabathia is 3-0, 3.26 in his last five starts; under is 9-3 in his last 2 starts. NY is 10-3 in his home starts this year. Sabathia didn’t pitch against Houston this season. He is 9-5, 4.46 in 21 career playoff games (20 starts).

AL Wild Card
NYY 8-4 Minn -$255, O7.5

NL Wild Card
Ariz 11-8 Colo -$148, O8.5

Hous 8-2 Bos, -$120, O7
Hous 8-2 Bos, -$185, O8.5
Bos 10-3 Hst, +$117, O9.5
Hst 5-4 Bos, -$118, O8
Astros win series, 3-1

Clev 4-0 NYY -$130, U8.5
Clev 9-8 NYY (13), -$210, O7
NYY 1-0 Clev, -$109, U8.5
NYY 7-3 Clev, -$150, O7.5
NYY 5-2 Clev, +$165, N7
New York wins series, 3-2

Cubs 3-0 Wash +$135, U7.5
Wash 6-3 Cubs, -$117, O8.5
Cubs 2-1 Wash, +$105, U7.5
Wash 5-0 Cubs, -$109, U7
Cubs 9-8 Wash, -$115, O7.5
Cubs win series, 3-2

LA 9-4 Ariz -$270, O7.5
LA 8-5 Ariz, -$142, O8
LA 2-1 Ariz, -$115, U8
Dodgers win series, 3-0

League championship series
Hst 2-1 NYY, -$165, U8
Hst 2-1 NYY, -$118, U7.5

LA 5-2 Cubs, -$190, U7
LA 2-1 Cubs, -$160, U7.5

MLB

Monday, October 16

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Trend Report
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8:08 PM
HOUSTON vs. NY YANKEES
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston is 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 7 games when playing Houston

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Announcement

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/15

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/15

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