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**Udog** · 10-07-2017, 09:48 AM

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

Some more NFL trends to ponder with Week 5 upon us……..

— Chargers are 0-8-1 vs spread in their last nine games.

— Panthers are 16-6 in last 22 games as a road underdog.

— Jets are 4-10-3 in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Steelers are 10-3 vs spread in last 13 games as a non-divisional HF.

— Cincinnati is 7-14 vs spread in its last 21 games.

— Bears are 6-1-1 in last eight games as a home underdog.

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Armadillo: Saturday's List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind……..

13) I made a rare appearance in the Hannaford grocery store near my home Thursday; I eat out just about every day, so I don’t need a lot of groceries, but I had 5 or 6 items as I went to the checkout aisles. (If you must know, had Fig Newtons, Cherry Coke, hamburger rolls, Rice Krispies, hot dog rolls and milk.)

One aisle had 6 or 7 people waiting on line, so that wasn’t an option; I’m not fond of waiting on lines. The other aisle was the Express Aisle; 14 items or less. My kind of aisle, I was there.

I’m behind one woman in line, a woman with an entire shopping cart full of items. She starts taking the items out, and she obviously has more than 14, and thats counting the five 2-liter bottles of Pepsi as one item. She has 23 items; how do I know this? I counted them.

12) Now I’m annoyed, because it is just a lack of respect for anyone other than herself; she looks to be around 50, a normal suburban person, except for the fact that she is taking 23 items thru the Express Aisle (14 items or less). I look at the young kid working the register, debating whether to make a fool of myself and call her on this indiscretion. I would’ve laughed if the cashier had refused to wait on Ms 23Items- he didn’t.

I’m bailed out by two other aisles being opened up just as I was about to make a decision; rather than create a scene, I just scoot over to the next aisle— I was out of the store before Ms 23Items got her bags into her shopping cart.

11) In the larger scope of life, obviously none of this is important, but it points out how the basic respect we have for each other is decaying throughout society. No one cares about anyone except him/herself. We need to have more respect for other humans; it doesn’t cost anything, and it improves everyone’s quality of life. Less stress equals a better life.

Elsewhere in the world…….
10) Watching Justin Verlander pitch in the playoffs Thursday gave me the creeps; he’s made five playoff starts against the A’s and was 4-0, 1.23 in those games- the one game he didn’t win was when the A’s rallied from behind in the late innings to beat Detroit’s bullpen.

Verlander is two decent years away from being a Hall of Famer.

9) How offense in the NFL is changing; the receiving leader for 7 of the 32 NFL teams is a running back. Teams are running ball less but are using RB’s out of the backfield to beat linebackers in individual matchups.

His first two years in the NFL, Todd Gurley caught 64 passes for 515 yards (8.0 yds/rec) in 29 games, with no touchdowns. In four games this year, he’s caught 20 passes for 234 yards (11.7 yds/rec), three TD’s. Twice as many catches per game, 46% more yards per catch.

8) Tampa Bay Bucs lost Thursday night, but now they get 10 days off before their next game, which is especially helpful in their case, since they already had their bye week in Week 1, because of the hurricane damage in Florida caused their game with Miami to be moved to Week 11.

7) I’d love to see a team playing New England let the QB call his own plays, just in case they’re still doing any BS stealing signals (chances are they are). They couldn’t do it if the QB called his own plays- no signals to steal.

Of course, that would greatly reduce substitutions by the offense, but the coach could send in personnel groupings and let the QB pick what plays he wanted that used those groupings.

6) Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan owns a ship that is 312 feet long (almost an entire football field) and cost $200M to build. You can rent this ship, for $1.2M a week, plus expenses.

If you’re wondering, $1.2M a week works out to $7,142.86 an hour for the week.

5) Toronto Raptors signed 3rd-year guard Norman Powell to a 4-year, $42 million contract extension; Powell has started 42 games in two years, averaging 16.7 mpg in his 125 NBA games.

$10.5M a year to a guy who has played 16.7 minutes a game? Wow.

4) Was glad to find a Golden State-Minnesota game on TV live from China in the middle of the night Tuesday—game started at 2am Wednesday morning here in NY. The reason substitutes like Powell make $10.5M a year is that the NBA is wildly popular world-wide, which makes all the teams extremely profitable.

3) Charlotte Hornets’ Nicolas Batum tore ligaments in his elbow and will be out for six weeks or so. Batum averaged 15.1 ppg and 5.9 assists a game last year.

2) Former NBA star Walt Frazier still does Knicks games on MSG TV in New York City; he is very good. The other night, he was talking about how some NBA teams have only 3-4 preseason games this year, due to the shortened preseason.

Back when he played (late 60’s/early 70’s), Frazier said the Knicks played 16 preseason games, and sometimes traveled from City A to City B with their opponent, which had to be odd.

1) Washington Post reported this week that 78% of Americans do not own a gun; 19% of Americans own 50% of our country’s gun, while 3% of our population owns the other 50%.

3% of Americans own 50% of the guns. Think about that.

**Udog** · 10-07-2017, 10:16 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, October 7

Chicago Cubs @ Washington

Game 901-902
October 7, 2017 @ 5:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Lester) 14.631
Washington
(Gonzalez) 16.231
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-120
8
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-120); Over

Arizona @ LA Dodgers

Game 903-904
October 7, 2017 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Ray) 15.809
LA Dodgers
(Hill) 17.544
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
N/A

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, October 7

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CHICAGO CUBS (93 - 70) at WASHINGTON (97 - 66) - 5:35 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 93-70 (-10.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 26-25 (-9.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 51-41 (-9.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
WASHINGTON is 70-37 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 186-110 (+38.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
LESTER is 32-9 (+19.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 23-23 (-12.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
WASHINGTON is 46-35 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
WASHINGTON is 24-27 (-17.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-4 (+0.3 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.7 Units)

JON LESTER vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
LESTER is 2-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.79 and a WHIP of 1.112.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

GIO GONZALEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
GONZALEZ is 3-3 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.103.
His team's record is 4-6 (-3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-5. (-1.2 units)

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ARIZONA (94 - 70) at LA DODGERS (105 - 58) - 9:05 PM
ZACK GODLEY (R) vs. RICH HILL (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 11-9 (+5.2 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.1 Units)

ZACK GODLEY vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
GODLEY is 1-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.07 and a WHIP of 1.068.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.1 units)

RICH HILL vs. ARIZONA since 1997
HILL is 1-6 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 5.02 and a WHIP of 1.269.
His team's record is 2-8 (-10.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-3. (+1.7 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, October 7

Arizona @ Los Angeles
Arizona won six of its last seven games with the Dodgers, but got spanked 9-5 last night in Game 1 of this series; they’re 11-9 vs LA this season, 4-6 in Chavez Ravine. Over is 11-9 in Arizona-LA games this season.

Ray is 1-0, 6.55 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven starts. Arizona is 12-3 in his road starts. Ray is 3-0, 2.56 in five starts against the Dodgers this season.

Hill is 3-0, 1.00 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six starts. Dodgers are 8-6 in his home starts. Hill is 0-3, 5.03 in four starts vs Arizona this season.

Dodgers haven’t been to the World Series since 1988; this is their 5th year in a row in playoffs. Arizona won the Wild Card game 11-8 Wednesday, lost 9-5 last night; this is the first time they’re in the playoffs since 2011.

Chicago @ Washington
Washington/Cubs split 8 games this season (over 5-3): Nationals had only two hits last night in a 3-0 loss in Game 1 of this series.

Lester is 5-1, 4.18 in his last six starts; over is 9-1 in his last ten starts. Cubs are 7-6 in his road starts. He is 0-0, 2.84 in two starts vs Washington this season.

Gonzalez is 1-3, 6.55 in his last four starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven starts. Washington is 7-8 in his home starts. He allowed one run in six IP in his only starts vs Chicago this season.

Cubs won the World Series LY, their first title since 1908; this is their 3rd year in a row in the playoffs. Washington is in the playoffs for 4th time in six years- they lost in this round the previous three times. Nationals have never been in the World Series.

AL Wild Card
NYY 8-4 Minn -$255, O7.5

NL Wild Card
Ariz 11-8 Colo -$148, O8.5

Divisional series
Hous 8-2 Bos, -$120, O7
Hous 8-2 Bos, -$185, O8.5

Clev 4-0 NYY -$130, U8.5
Clev 9-8 NYY (13), -$210, O7

Cubs 3-0 Wash +$135, U7.5

LA 9-5 Ariz -$270, O7.5

MLB

Saturday, October 7

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Trend Report
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5:38 PM
CHI CUBS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 12 games when playing Washington
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs

9:08 PM
ARIZONA vs. LA DODGERS
Arizona6-0-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Dodgers
Arizona is 2-5-1 SU in its last 8 games ,on the road
LA Dodgers6-1-1 SU in their last 8 games
LA Dodgers are 0-4-1 SU in their last 5 games ,when playing Arizona

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**Udog** · 10-07-2017, 12:27 PM

Saturday's MLB Division Series Betting Preview and Odds

The American League Division series battles have a travel day and the National League Division series take center stage. The Nationals and Diamondbacks look to even up their prospective series and avoid falling into the dreaded 0-2 hole.

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (-125, 8)

Cubs lead series 1-0

The pressure already was on the Washington Nationals due to their previous postseason failures, and now they try to avoid an 0-2 deficit when they host the Chicago Cubs on Saturday for Game 2 of their National League Division Series. Washington recorded only two hits while being blanked 3-0 on Friday in the series opener and is two defeats away from its fourth first-round playoff exit in the last six years.

Nationals star Bryce Harper notched one of his team's hits but doesn't have an extra-base hit in six contests since returning from a knee injury. "Yeah, the longer we play, the closer Bryce is going to get," Washington manager Dusty Baker told reporters after the Game 1 defeat. "But you've got to put him out there, and you hope that, you know, surrounding cast of guys comes through." Chicago's Anthony Rizzo certainly came through in the opener with a run-scoring single and an RBI double. "You've got to be focused. You've got to be locked in," Rizzo told reporters. "Those are situations I want to be up in, and thankfully, I hit the ball where they weren't."

TV: 5:38 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (13-8, 4.33 ERA) vs. Nationals LH Gio Gonzalez (15-9, 2.96)

Lester went 5-1 in September to complete an inconsistent regular season in which he served up a career-worst 26 homers. But the 33-year-old has proven to be a solid postseason pitcher - he is 9-7 with a 2.63 ERA in 22 career appearances (19 starts) - and posted a 2.84 ERA in two no-decisions against the Nationals this season. "Eliminating damage is a huge thing against (Washington's) lineup," Lester told reporters. "We all know, obviously, they can hit the ball out of the ballpark at a high rate. So keep them on the ground and give our team a chance to field them and throw them out."

Gonzalez recorded at least 15 victories for the fourth time in his career but struggled down the stretch, losing four of his last six starts. The 32-year old, who has a 3.93 ERA in four career postseason starts (all no-decisions), lost to the Cubs in his lone meeting this season despite giving up one run and two hits in six innings. "That's a lineup that can do magic 1 through 9, so you have to respect it, whoever they put out there," Gonzalez told reporters. "I just want to prepare myself and try and take one hitter at a time, and we'll see how the outcome comes."

TRENDS:

* Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 Divisional Playoff games.

* Cubs are 8-1 in Lesters last 9 starts vs. National League East.

* Nationals are 1-6 in their last 7 Divisional Playoff home games.

* Under is 9-2 in Cubs last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.

* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.

* Nationals are 0-4 in Gonzalezs last 4 starts vs. Cubs.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the home chalk Nationals with 59 percent of the picks and Under is grabbing 57 percent of the totals wagers.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (-137, 8)

Dodgers lead series 1-0

Justin Turner has thrived under the playoff spotlight, and he looks to help the Los Angeles Dodgers take a 2-0 lead when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday for Game 2 of their National League Division Series. Turner went 3-for-4 with a homer and five RBIs in a series-opening 9-5 victory to raise his career postseason average to .383 in 60 at-bats.

Turner's three-run, first-inning blast - his third postseason homer - set the tone for Friday's victory as Los Angeles built a 7-1 lead while withstanding Arizona's power show. Turner's five-RBI performance matched Davey Lopes (1978 World Series) and Pedro Guerrero (1981 World Series) for the most in a postseason game in franchise history. The Diamondbacks belted four homers, but they all were of the solo variety, and had just two at-bats with runners in scoring position. Arizona will attempt to even the series behind All-Star left-hander Robbie Ray, who went 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 53 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings over five starts against the Dodgers this season.

TV: 9:08 p.m. ET, TBS

PITCHING MATCHUP: Diamondbacks LH Robbie Ray (15-5, 2.89 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Rich Hill (12-8, 3.32)

Ray won his final six decisions in the regular season, and his 218 strikeouts were the third-most in the NL. The 26-year-old was called on to pitch 2 1/3 innings of relief in Wednesday's wild-card victory over Colorado and insists the 34-pitch effort will not affect his routine or performance. "I feel great. My arm feels great and ready to go," Ray said at a press conference. "I wouldn't lie to (manager Torey Lovullo). I wouldn't give this team anything (other than) 100 percent of myself. I feel like that would be cheating me and cheating the team."

Hill finished the regular season in stellar fashion with three straight victories, and he allowed two runs and eight hits while striking out 26 in 18 innings during that stretch. The 37-year-old had nothing but trouble with the Diamondbacks this season, going 0-3 with a 5.03 ERA in four starts, but manager Dave Roberts feels the veteran's feisty nature will lead to better results. "He's a great competitor. He's wacky on his start days," Roberts said at a press conference. "It's been well-documented that he and I have had some good run-ins ... but that edge that he brings and the way that this guy prepares like no other, he's a baseball player."

TRENDS:

* Diamondbacks are 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.

* Dodgers are 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

* Over is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

* Over is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

* Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 starts vs. Dodgers.

* Diamondbacks are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is leaning toward the road dog Diamondbacks with 55 percent of the picks and Over is grabbing 72 percent of the totals wagers.

Announcement

Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/7

Saturday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/7

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