Announcement

**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 08:28 AM

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Odds to win the World Series:

50-1- Minnesota

30-1- Colorado

14-1- Arizona, New York

10-1- Washington, Chicago

9-1- Boston

6-1- Houston

5-2- Los Angeles

9-4- Cleveland

**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but……..

13) Atlanta Braves’ general manager John Coppolella, who built baseball’s top-rated farm system, has quit amid an investigation into whether the Braves were weasels with the international signing rules.

Coppolella had the job for two years; he is the third executive to get into trouble in recent years. GM in San Diego has been suspended twice for his refusal to play by the rules. Someone in St Louis went to prison for four years in a corporate hacking scandal– he hacked the Astros’ computer system to gain information on the amateur draft. Oy.

12) Oakland Raiders’ QB Derek Carr is out 2-6 weeks with a broken bone in his back. Backup QB EJ Manuel lost his last five NFL starts- his last win as an NFL starter was in 2014.

11) Howard Schultz used to be the CEO of Starbucks and also owned the Seattle Sonics of the NBA; he is really rich. Schultz went to college at Northern Michigan, where he was the backup QB of the football team.

Starting QB of that team? Former 49ers/Lions’ coach Steve Mariucci, who now works on the NFL Network.

10) Chicago Bears are starting rookie QB Mitch Trubisky Monday night against Minnesota; he will become the 4th rookie QB who was drafted in the first round to make his debut on Monday Night Football. The first three:

1988— Jim Harbaugh
2006— Philip Rivers
2008— Aaron Rodgers

9) Over their first four games, Green Bay has started three different left tackles, three different right tackles, yet they’re 3-1. Very unusual turnover at that position, even more unusual for a team with that kind of turnover to be 3-1.

8) If Louisville fires its athletic director Tom Jurich, a clause kicks in for Louisville football coach Bobby Petrino, which could make it easier for him to leave the school.

Petrino’s buyout to leave Louisville gets cut in half if Jurich is no longer the AD. Cardinals will probably be hiring a new basketball coach next spring; they don’t want to be hiring a new football coach, too.

7) Pablo Sandoval hit a walk-off homer for the Giants Sunday; that win cost the Giants’ the #1 pick in next June’s draft. Detroit Tigers get it, instead.

6) Good time to be the agent for Twins’ manager Paul Molitor; he doesn’t have a contract for 2018. Cha-ching!$!$!$!$!

No team had ever made the playoffs after losing 97+ games the year before; Minnesota lost 103 games last season. Molitor is going to get a nice contract this winter.

5) In 2015, Miami Marlins thought so highly of pitching development expert Jim Benedict that they traded right-handed pitcher Trevor Williams to Pittsburgh for him; now Marlins’ new CEO Derek Jeter has already fired Benedict, while Williams is 7-9, 4.07 in 25 starts for the Pirates this year.

4) Glenn Johnson has been the PA guy for Washington State football for 38 years; he is a professor at the school. He is also the 4-term mayor of Pullman, Washington. Going to take several people to replace him when he decides to retire.

3) Fantasy baseball is interesting/weird; last winter, I had to cut a guy to get my roster down from 26 to 25 players, which we do every winter.

The guy I cut was Mark Reynolds, who wasn’t expected to start for the Colorado Rockies this year— this wasn’t a difficult decision, there was a thought he would wind up on a different team.

Because of injuries to Ian Desmond/David Dahl, Reynolds made the ballclub in the spring and wound up playing first base the whole year, hitting 30 homers with 97 RBI. Whoops.

2) Paradise Jam college basketball tournament will be moved from the Virgin Islands to the campus of Liberty U in Lynchburg, VA this fall, because of the hurricane damage in the Virgin Islands.

1) If you read this space a lot, you know I go on vacation in Las Vegas a few times a year; I love it there. Excellent place to visit, lot of great people, always fun stuff to do.

Was so sad Sunday night to see the carnage after a 64-year old guy lost his mind and started firing on an outdoor concert from the 32nd floor in the Mandalay Bay hotel, a place I’ve stayed- a terrific place, a very fun place.

Life is short; hug your loved ones and try to enjoy every day.

**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 08:34 AM

American League Wild Card playoff preview and odds: Twins at Yankees

The Yankees have won 11 straight season series over the Twins, posting a 55-23 head-to-head record in that span.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (A: +220, H: -250, Total: 7.5)

The New York Yankees have traditionally dominated the Minnesota Twins in the postseason and hope to continue that trend when the teams meet Tuesday night in the American League Wild Card Game at Yankee Stadium. New York defeated Minnesota in the AL Division Series in 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010, claiming 12 of 14 contests in that span.

This encounter will be the first taste of October for the Yankees' "Baby Bombers," putting MVP candidate Aaron Judge - who led the AL in homers (52) and walks (127) - on a big stage in the Bronx that has played host to many legends. "This is what it's all about," Judge told reporters Monday. "This is where a lot of those numbers that are hanging out there in left field (Monument Park), this is where they made a name for themselves, in the postseason." The Twins authored one of the great turnarounds in baseball history by going from 59 wins in 2016 to 85 this season, but they must overcome the pressure of past postseason failures, having lost 12 straight playoff games and 19 of their last 21 dating to the 2002 ALCS. Ervin Santana, who is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in six career starts at Yankee Stadium, gets the start for Minnesota opposite New York ace Luis Severino.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

INJURY REPORT:

Twins - RP J.T. Chargois (Out For Season, Elbow), SP Hector Santiago (Out For Season, Back), SP Phil Hughes (Out For Season, Shoulder), RP Trevor May (Out For Season, Elbow), RP Ryan O’Rourke (Out For Season, Elbow).

Yankees - SP Luis Cessa (Out For Season, Ribs), SP Michael Pineda (Out For Season, Elbow).

PITCHING MATCHUP: Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins (16-8, 3.28 ERA, $ 407) vs. Luis Severino, New York Yankees (14-6, 2.98 ERA, $495)

Santana led the AL in shutouts (three) and complete games (five) in an All-Star campaign in which he posted the second-lowest ERA of his 13-year-career. The 34-year-old finished the regular season with three straight road starts, including a tough loss at Yankee Stadium in which he allowed two runs and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings. Judge went deep in that one against Santana, who owns a 5.66 ERA in 20 career starts versus New York, his highest mark against an AL team.

Severino finished his breakout regular season by going 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA in five September starts, during which he allowed 15 hits and struck out 38 in 30 dominant innings. The one outlier in that stretch was a three-inning, three-run outing against Minnesota on Sept. 20, when the 23-year-old was pulled following a 46-pitch third inning. That was the only career meeting with the Twins for Severino, who was 8-5 with a 3.71 ERA at home this year.

TRENDS:

* Twins are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff road games.

* Yankees are 13-3 in their last 16 home games.

* Yankees are 13-3 in Luis Severino’s last 16 starts.

* Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 playoff games.

* Under is 7-1 in Yankees last 8 playoff home games.

* Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home chalk Bombers at a rate of 68 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.

**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 08:52 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Tuesday, October 3

Minnesota @ NY Yankees

Game 931-932
October 3, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Santana) 15.600
NY Yankees
(Severino) 17.141
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-230
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-230); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (85 - 77) at NY YANKEES (91 - 71) - 8:05 PM
ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. LUIS SEVERINO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 64-34 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 46-31 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MINNESOTA is 85-77 (+11.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 44-37 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MINNESOTA is 96-93 (+22.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 58-44 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MINNESOTA is 59-54 (+7.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MINNESOTA is 23-18 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
NY YANKEES are 3-8 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing with a day off this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 4-2 (+1.9 Units) against MINNESOTA this season
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

ERVIN SANTANA vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
SANTANA is 6-10 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 5.66 and a WHIP of 1.517.
His team's record is 7-13 (-4.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-10. (-0.5 units)

LUIS SEVERINO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
SEVERINO is 0-0 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 3

Minnesota @ New York
New York is 4-2 against the Twins this season; home teams won five of the six games. Under is 4-1-1 in the six games.

Santana is 1-1, 1.91 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Twins are 11-6 in his road starts, 19-14 in all his starts. He lost 2-1 here on Sept 18, allowing two runs in 5.2 IP.

Severino is 3-0, 2.40 in his last five starts; over is 6-3 in his last nine starts. New York won his last four home starts- they’re 20-11 in his starts overall.

Twins are in playoffs for first time since 2010; they last made the ALCS in 2002. He allowed three runs in three IP in a start against Minnesota Sept 20.

New York is in the playoffs for second time in the last five years; they last made the ALCS in 2012. NY lost the Wild Card two years ago.

In five years of Wild Card games, the road team is 7-3.

——————————–

NL Wild Card
Wednesday’s game
Colorado @ Arizona
Arizona is 11-8 against the Rockies this season; teams split 10 games played here.

Gray is 4-0, 2.10 in his last five starts; he is 2-1, 3.50 vs Arizona this season. His last four starts stayed under the total. Colorado is 7-5 in his road starts.

Greinke makes $30M+ a year; he is expected to win this game. He was 1-1, 3.90 in five September starts, and is 2-1, 3.41 in five starts vs Colorado this season. Under is 8-2 in his last ten starts.

Rockies are in playoffs for 4th time ever, first time since 2009; Arizona is in playoffs for first time since 2011- they last made the NLCS in 2007.

__________________________

Interleague

Thanks for logging on all season; we’ll have some information on all the playoff games, thru the World Series.

______________________________

Record with this pitcher starting:
National League

Interleague
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
American League
Interleague
_________________________

Umpires
National League
American League
Interleague

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 86-58 AL, favorites -$434
AL @ NL– 75-72 NL, favorites +$396
Total: 159-131 AL, favorites -$38

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 72-70-4
AL @ NL: Over 75-65-8
Total: Over 147-135-12

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/19/17
Ariz 28-26-20……43-25–12……..71-51
Atl 27-35-10……26-42-8………..53-77
Cubs 33-31-8…….39-25-14………..72-56
Reds 23-43-9……..30-37-9…………53-80
Colo 38-31-7………40-29-5………..78-60
LA 38-24-13…….41-25-9…………79-49
Miami 32-36-10…….36-26-11………68-62
Milw 37-27-10…….38-29-10……….74-56
Mets 33-39-5……..30-37-7………….63-76
Philly 19-43-16……30-36-9………..49-79
Pitt 31-37-9…….28-33-13………..60-70
St. Louis 32-34-9……..39-25-10………..71-59
SD 21-46-8……..38-29–9…………59-75
SF 16-49-9……..30-33-13……….46-81
Wash 43-23-7……34-33-10………….77-56

Orioles 29-39-5……..31-39-8………..60-78
Boston 31-35-11………34-37-3……….65-72
White Sox 25-40-11………29-42–4…….54-82
Cleveland 45-23-8……..39-24-10……..84-47
Detroit 27-38-10…….30-36-11……..57-74
Astros 37-28-11……..47-24-5………84-52
KC 26-35-13……..30-31-13…….56-66
Angels 26-39-8………31-31-14……..57-70
Twins 38-24-13………38-33-8……..76-57
NYY 34-38-7……….40-28-5…..…74-66
A’s 29-39-10……..32-32-12……..61-71
Seattle 29-39-9……..39-25-11………68-64
TB 36-29-11……..40-24-9……..76-53
Texas 35-27-12……..38-28-9……..73-55
Toronto 30-40-5……..30-33-12……..60-73

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/19/17)
Ariz 24-76……..27-74………..51
Atl 17-71……….19-79………36
Cubs 20-72……..26-78………..46
Reds 30-76……..27-76……….57
Colo 20-76……..25-74..……..45
LA 23-76……..26-74..…….49
Miami 32-78……..27-73……….59
Milw 24-74……29-78…..…..53
Mets 34-75……..26-75……….60
Philly 17-78……..24-74……….41
Pitt 22-77……..22-75……….44
StL 16-76……..23-73………..39
SD 23-75……….26-75……….49
SF 17-75……….22-77……….39
Wash 26-73……..30-77……….56

Orioles 17-76……..25-77……….42
Boston 21-77……..18-74……….39
White Sox 24-76……20-75……….44
Clev 22-77……..26-75………48
Detroit 18-74…….27-77………45
Astros 21-77……..29-74………50
KC 18-75……..16-76………..34
Angels 27-75……..22-77……….49
Twins 17-73……..20-77……….37
NYY 19-78……..21-73……….40
A’s 20-76……..27-76………47
Seattle 21-77…….25-77……….46
TB 22-74……..26-77………48
Texas 29-76……..30-74………59
Toronto 26-76……..21-78………47

MLB

Tuesday, October 3

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Trend Report
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8:09 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Minnesota is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games

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**Udog** · 10-03-2017, 02:02 PM

2017 MLB Regular Season Awards

Top Money Team:

Milwaukee Brewers $1801 (86-76)

Runner-up:

Arizona Diamondbacks $1656

Worst Money Team:

San Francisco Giants $-3778 (64-98)

Runner-up:

Detroit Tigers $-3128

Top Money Starting Pitcher:

Parker Bridwell $1752 (17-3)

Runner-up:

Clayton Kershaw $1235 (23-4)

Worst Money Starting Pitcher:

Madison Bumgarner $-1476 (4-13)

Runner-up:

R. Nolasco $-1355 (10-23)

Announcement

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/3

Tuesday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 10/3

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