Thursday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 9/28

[Udog]

Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 28

Good Luck on day #270 of 2017!

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Armadillo:Thursday's six-pack

Blue Ribbon Yearbook’s top six college hoop teams (released before the FBI’s press conference on Tuesday)

6) Louisville— Wonder who the interim coach will be.

5) Kentucky— Will be very young again.

4) Kansas— Brought in several transfers this year.

3) Duke— You wonder how deep this whole recruiting mess will go.

2) Michigan State— Will wind up as the #1 preseason team.

1) Arizona— Already fired one of their assistant coaches.


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Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….

13) I would suggest that one change basketball should make is letting kids go right from high school to the NBA; it used to be this way— Lebron James, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant didn’t go to college.

You’re never going to totally eliminate corruption in something that is so popular and is a huge moneymaker, but this would take the most lucrative layer of corruption away from the sport.

The NCAA tournament was still really popular when players could go straight from high school to college. I think this would help both the NBA and college ball.

12) Finally heard a good chunk of a game with Tony Romo as analyst; he is enthusiastic, and he does something I like that other hate— he chimes in during the play, if he sees something.

“He’s got him!!!” Romo might say as he sees a play develop. I like that; Jon Gruden does it a little bit sometimes, I wouldn’t mind more of that.

11) Brent Musburger came out Tuesday and said he didn’t like that at all, the chiming in during a play. Thats what makes the world interesting, that we can disagree and Brent was a play-by-play guy after all.

Bottom line is this: CBS made a good move making Romo a game analyst.

Some statistical knowledge from the first three weeks of the NFL:
10) Best red zone offense (based on pts/possession):
1) Chiefs 6.00 2) Rams 5.86 T3) Packers/Raiders 5.67

Worst red zone offenses:
32) Bengals 2.88 31) Cardinals T29) Dolphins/Giants 3.75

9) Best “black zone” offenses (drives that start 75+ yards from end zone)
1) Titans 3.54 2) Rams 3.40 3) Chiefs 2.95 T4) Vikings/Saints 2.94

Worst black zone offenses (teams lose points if you give up a pick-6):
32) Colts 0.42 31) Browns 0.77 30) Bengals 0.84 T28) Ravens/Bills 0.85

8) Teams with most plays of 20+ yards:
T1) Rams/Patriots 20 3) T3) Cardinals/Vikings 19 T5) Saints/Broncos 15

7) Teams that have allowed the most plays of 20+ yards:
32) Saints 22, 31) Colts 21, 30) Patriots 18, T28) Jets/Rams 16

6) Someone in Las Vegas bet $340K on the money line on the Steelers last week; all they had to do for the guy to win was beat the Bears, but they lost it overtime. Thats a bad day.

5) Arizona Cardinals’ kicker/punter are a combined 77 years old.

4) Saw a cool thing on Twitter this week: 79-year old Jerry West on the court, helping Sam Dekker with his jump shot at Clippers’ training camp out in Hawai’i.

Who better to help a player with skills than one of the greatest players/executives of all-time?

3) Auburn had sold out its basketball season tickets for this season, but now their program is in trouble, the school is offering refunds to season ticket holders. Bruce Pearl is expected to quit/be fired soon.

One of their best recruits for 2018 has already de-committed, a 6-10 forward from Georgia.

2) Rick Pitino was making $7.76M a year at Louisville; what does he do now? TV work? Would another NBA team take a chance on him (doubtful)? I’d enjoy hearing him on TV, but I’m guessing he is just going to disappear for a while, until this whole mess plays out.

1) Last question today about the college basketball issue: Do the players’ families who took the money from coaches get nailed by the IRS for tax evasion?

[Udog]

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, September 28

National League
Reds @ Brewers
Romano is 1-2, 3.57 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Reds are 3-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-8-3

Brewers won last five Suter starts (1-0, 3.38), last three of which stayed under. Milwaukee is 6-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-3-2

Reds lost seven of their last eight games; under is 9-4 in their last 13 games. Milwaukee lost four of last six games (under 4-1-1). Brewers are 2.5 games out in the Wild Card race.

Pirates @ Nationals
Nova is 0-4, 7.77 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under. Pirates are 4-13 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-15-3

Strasburg is 4-0, 1.06 in his last five starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine. Washington is 9-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-4

Pirates won their last four games; under is 12-2 in their last 14 road games. Pittsburgh is 2-7 in last nine road series openers. Washington is 6-4 in its last ten games; under is 10-5-2 in their last 17 games. Nationals are 7-9 in last 16 home series openers.

Braves @ Marlins
Teheran is 4-1, 2.31 in his last six starts; under is 7-1-2 in his last ten. Braves are 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-12-5

Peters is 0-2, 6.31 in five starts this year (over 4-1). Miami lost both his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-2

Braves lost four of last five games; under is 6-1 in their last seven. Atlanta is 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Marlins lost three of last four games (under 3-1); they’re 11-6 in last 17 home series openers.

Cubs @ Cardinals
Hendricks is 3-1, 2.48 in his last six starts, last five of which stayed under total. Cubs are 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-5

Lynn is 1-1, 13.97 in his last three starts; under is 12-4 in his last 16. St Louis is 7-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-15-2

Cubs won 12 of last 15 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11. St Louis won six of last nine home games; under is 7-3 in their last ten.

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American League
Rays @ New York
Faria is making his first start since August 16; he is 0-3, 5.06 in his last four starts. Under is 6-1-1 in his last eight. Rays are 5-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-2

Gray is 2-2, 3.42 in his last four starts (under 8-2). New York is 2-2 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 4-5-1

Tampa Bay is 4-8 in its last 12 games; three of their last five games went over. New York won 11 of last 14 games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten.

Twins @ Indians
Twins clinched playoff berth last night; not sure how long Santana goes here. Santana is 1-1, 2.41 in his last three starts. Twins are 10-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-8-7

Carrasco is 5-0, 1.52 in his last six starts; over is 6-2 in his last eight. Indians are 10-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 22-7-2

Twins won five of their last six games; over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games- they clinched a playoff spot last night. Cleveland is 30-3 in its last 33 games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 home games.

Astros @ Red Sox
Peacock is 3-0, 2.35 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Astros are 8-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-4-2

Rodriguez is 2-1, 2.13 in his last four starts; under is 9-1 in his last ten. Boston is 8-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-12

Houston won 11 of its last 13 games; under is 6-4 in their last ten. Boston won 10 of last 13 games; over is 5-1 in their last six home games.

A’s @ Rangers
Manaea is 2-2, 5.49 in his last four starts (under 3-1). A’s are 6-9 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-13-5

Gonzalez is 1-2, 7.16 in four starts for Texas (over 2-2). Texas lost his only home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-2

A’s won 8 of last 10 games; over is 9-5 in their last 14 road games. Oakland is 2-6 in last eight road series openers. Texas lost its last six games; under is 7-4 in their last 11. Rangers are 6-1 in last seven home series openers.

Angels @ White Sox
Angels got eliminated last night; no idea who pitches here. Likely a bullpen game.

Covey is 0-4, 8.15 in his last four starts (over 5-4-3). Chicago is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-1

Angels lost eight of their last ten games; seven of their last ten road games stayed under- they are now eliminated from playoff contention. Chicago won five of last seven games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.

Tigers @ Royals
Norris is 0-4, 9.82 in his last four starts; over is 4-1-1 in his last six. Tigers are 5-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-9-2

Duffy is 2-1, 3.18 in his last three starts; under is 7-4 in his last 11. Royals are 6-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-10-4

Detroit lost its last nine games; over is 9-3-1 in their last 13. Royals won three of last four home games; under is 9-6 in their last 15.

__________________________

Interleague


______________________________

Record with this pitcher starting:
National League
Cin-Mil: Romano 6-9; Suter 8-5
Pitt-Wsh: Nova 13-17; Strasburg 21-6
Atl-Mia: Teheran 15-16; Peters 1-4
Chi-StL: Hendricks 11-12; Lynn 14-18

American League
Min-Clev: Santana 19-13; Carrasco 23-8
TB-NY: Faria 8-5; Gray 4-6
Hst-Bos: Peacock 14-6; Rodriguez 13-10
A’s-Tex: Manaea 13-15; Gonzalez 2-2
LAA-Chi: unknown Covey 3-8
Det-KC: Norris 7-10; Duffy 11-12

Interleague

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Cin-Mil: Romano 6-15; Suter 1-13
Pitt-Wsh: Nova 11-30; Strasburg 4-27
Atl-Mia: Teheran 10-31; Peters 2-5
Chi-StL: Hendricks 8-23; Lynn 10-32

American League
Min-Clev: Santana 8-32; Carrasco 5-31
TB-NY: Faria 2-13; Gray 2-10
Hst-Bos: Peacock 2-20; Rodriguez 6-23
A’s-Tex: Manaea 9-28; Gonzalez 1-4
LAA-Chi: unknown Covey 7-11
Det-KC: Norris 3-17; Duffy 6-23

Interleague
_________________________

Umpires
National League

American League

Interleague

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 84-57 AL, favorites -$280
AL @ NL– 75-72 NL, favorites +$396
Total: 156-131 AL, favorites +$116

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-68-4
AL @ NL: Over 75-65-8
Total: Over 146-133-12

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/19/17
Ariz 28-26-20……43-25–12……..71-51
Atl 27-35-10……26-42-8………..53-77
Cubs 33-31-8…….39-25-14………..72-56
Reds 23-43-9……..30-37-9…………53-80
Colo 38-31-7………40-29-5………..78-60
LA 38-24-13…….41-25-9…………79-49
Miami 32-36-10…….36-26-11………68-62
Milw 37-27-10…….38-29-10……….74-56
Mets 33-39-5……..30-37-7………….63-76
Philly 19-43-16……30-36-9………..49-79
Pitt 31-37-9…….28-33-13………..60-70
St. Louis 32-34-9……..39-25-10………..71-59
SD 21-46-8……..38-29–9…………59-75
SF 16-49-9……..30-33-13……….46-81
Wash 43-23-7……34-33-10………….77-56

Orioles 29-39-5……..31-39-8………..60-78
Boston 31-35-11………34-37-3……….65-72
White Sox 25-40-11………29-42–4…….54-82
Cleveland 45-23-8……..39-24-10……..84-47
Detroit 27-38-10…….30-36-11……..57-74
Astros 37-28-11……..47-24-5………84-52
KC 26-35-13……..30-31-13…….56-66
Angels 26-39-8………31-31-14……..57-70
Twins 38-24-13………38-33-8……..76-57
NYY 34-38-7……….40-28-5…..…74-66
A’s 29-39-10……..32-32-12……..61-71
Seattle 29-39-9……..39-25-11………68-64
TB 36-29-11……..40-24-9……..76-53
Texas 35-27-12……..38-28-9……..73-55
Toronto 30-40-5……..30-33-12……..60-73

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/19/17)
Ariz 24-76……..27-74………..51
Atl 17-71……….19-79………36
Cubs 20-72……..26-78………..46
Reds 30-76……..27-76……….57
Colo 20-76……..25-74..……..45
LA 23-76……..26-74..…….49
Miami 32-78……..27-73……….59
Milw 24-74……29-78…..…..53
Mets 34-75……..26-75……….60
Philly 17-78……..24-74……….41
Pitt 22-77……..22-75……….44
StL 16-76……..23-73………..39
SD 23-75……….26-75……….49
SF 17-75……….22-77……….39
Wash 26-73……..30-77……….56

Orioles 17-76……..25-77……….42
Boston 21-77……..18-74……….39
White Sox 24-76……20-75……….44
Clev 22-77……..26-75………48
Detroit 18-74…….27-77………45
Astros 21-77……..29-74………50
KC 18-75……..16-76………..34
Angels 27-75……..22-77……….49
Twins 17-73……..20-77……….37
NYY 19-78……..21-73……….40
A’s 20-76……..27-76………47
Seattle 21-77…….25-77……….46
TB 22-74……..26-77………48
Texas 29-76……..30-74………59
Toronto 26-76……..21-78………47

[Udog]

MLB

Thursday, September 28

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Trend Report
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12:10 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

4:10 PM
CINCINNATI vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Cincinnati is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

7:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NY YANKEES
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in their last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

7:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh's last 17 games
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games at home

7:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Houston is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

7:15 PM
CHI CUBS vs. ST. LOUIS
Chi Cubs are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chi Cubs's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games
St. Louis is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chi Cubs

8:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Texas's last 19 games when playing Oakland

8:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. CHI WHITE SOX
LA Angels are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
LA Angels are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games

8:15 PM
DETROIT vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games


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[Udog]

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 28

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CINCINNATI (67 - 91) at MILWAUKEE (83 - 75) - 4:10 PM
SAL ROMANO (R) vs. BRENT SUTER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 8-23 (-12.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-26 (-16.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
MILWAUKEE is 83-75 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 53-48 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 66-58 (+13.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MILWAUKEE is 40-35 (+8.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
CINCINNATI is 36-36 (+8.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 78-101 (-34.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 10-8 (+0.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.5 Units)

SAL ROMANO vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
ROMANO is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

BRENT SUTER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
SUTER is 0-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

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PITTSBURGH (73 - 85) at WASHINGTON (95 - 63) - 7:05 PM
IVAN NOVA (R) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 73-85 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 29-48 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 46-63 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 115-135 (-31.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 132-273 (-75.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.
NOVA is 4-14 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 68-35 (+21.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 65-51 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 25-34 (-20.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
WASHINGTON is 183-162 (-54.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 13-17 (-13.5 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
JACKSON is 56-76 (-28.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 (+1.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

IVAN NOVA vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
NOVA is 1-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.08 and a WHIP of 1.371.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

EDWIN JACKSON vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
JACKSON is 8-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 3.61 and a WHIP of 1.271.
His team's record is 8-7 (+1.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-7. (-0.8 units)

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ATLANTA (71 - 87) at MIAMI (74 - 84) - 7:10 PM
JULIO TEHERAN (R) vs. DILLON PETERS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TEHERAN is 14-29 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 17-9 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after allowing 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 139-180 (+2.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 42-37 (+8.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ATLANTA is 71-86 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 34-37 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 50-56 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 98-81 (+26.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
TEHERAN is 15-11 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEHERAN is 9-3 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MIAMI is 30-40 (-11.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
MIAMI is 63-84 (-28.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 53-59 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 10-5 (+4.9 Units) against MIAMI this season
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-1.2 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)

JULIO TEHERAN vs. MIAMI since 1997
TEHERAN is 6-4 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.25 and a WHIP of 1.244.
His team's record is 9-7 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-7. (+0.8 units)

DILLON PETERS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
No recent starts.

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CHICAGO CUBS (89 - 69) at ST LOUIS (82 - 76) - 7:15 PM
KYLE HENDRICKS (R) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 13-5 (+7.6 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.6 Units)

KYLE HENDRICKS vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
HENDRICKS is 2-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.79 and a WHIP of 1.045.
His team's record is 6-4 (+1.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-4. (+1.8 units)

LANCE LYNN vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
LYNN is 6-6 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.360.
His team's record is 7-10 (-5.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 9-7. (+1.1 units)

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MINNESOTA (83 - 75) at CLEVELAND (99 - 59) - 12:10 PM
ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. CARLOS CARRASCO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 7-11 (+0.1 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
13 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+7.6 Units)

ERVIN SANTANA vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
SANTANA is 7-11 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.83 and a WHIP of 1.248.
His team's record is 9-15 (-6.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 17-7. (+9.4 units)

CARLOS CARRASCO vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
CARRASCO is 4-6 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.451.
His team's record is 5-8 (-6.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-5. (+2.2 units)

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TAMPA BAY (76 - 82) at NY YANKEES (89 - 69) - 7:05 PM
JACOB FARIA (R) vs. SONNY GRAY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 144-175 (-39.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 91-117 (-31.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 108-120 (-20.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 22-6 (+14.6 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.
NY YANKEES are 21-6 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in home games in September games over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 49-24 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 64-33 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
GRAY is 19-29 (-15.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 3-13 (-13.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 8-20 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GRAY is 8-16 (-12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 12-6 (+4.7 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.3 Units)

JACOB FARIA vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
FARIA is 0-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

SONNY GRAY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
GRAY is 3-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.71 and a WHIP of 1.270.
His team's record is 4-6 (-3.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-7. (-6.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (98 - 60) at BOSTON (92 - 66) - 7:10 PM
BRAD PEACOCK (R) vs. EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-22 (-18.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-23 (-13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
BOSTON is 52-26 (+23.1 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 74-47 (+15.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 98-60 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 24-13 (+10.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
HOUSTON is 50-27 (+14.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 35-19 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
HOUSTON is 31-17 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in road games after a win this season.
HOUSTON is 17-7 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 688-617 (-81.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
BOSTON is 371-293 (-47.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
BOSTON is 14-21 (-15.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 48-42 (-7.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
BOSTON is 437-399 (-79.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
BOSTON is 225-227 (-64.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 2-1 (+1.3 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

BRAD PEACOCK vs. BOSTON since 1997
PEACOCK is 0-2 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 12.39 and a WHIP of 2.879.
His team's record is 0-3 (-3.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-3. (-3.5 units)

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ vs. HOUSTON since 1997
RODRIGUEZ is 0-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (73 - 85) at TEXAS (76 - 82) - 8:05 PM
SEAN MANAEA (L) vs. MIGUEL GONZALEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 210-272 (-47.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 364-461 (-98.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 27-50 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 9-25 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
OAKLAND is 39-58 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
MANAEA is 2-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TEXAS is 171-152 (+24.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 29-19 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 79-69 (+15.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 127-105 (+26.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 80-68 (+25.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 116-110 (+18.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
GONZALEZ is 33-18 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 145-123 (+41.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 15-10 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
OAKLAND is 36-35 (+6.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TEXAS is 39-43 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TEXAS is 18-24 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 9-6 (+3.3 Units) against TEXAS this season
9 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)

SEAN MANAEA vs. TEXAS since 1997
MANAEA is 2-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.265.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

MIGUEL GONZALEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
GONZALEZ is 0-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.18 and a WHIP of 1.268.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA ANGELS (78 - 80) at CHI WHITE SOX (65 - 93) - 8:10 PM
BUD NORRIS (R) vs. DYLAN COVEY (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 4-2 (+0.0 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)

BUD NORRIS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
NORRIS is 1-2 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 5.19 and a WHIP of 1.212.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

DYLAN COVEY vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (62 - 96) at KANSAS CITY (78 - 80) - 8:15 PM
DANIEL NORRIS (L) vs. DANNY DUFFY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 62-96 (-33.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
DETROIT is 24-43 (-19.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
DETROIT is 28-49 (-15.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
DETROIT is 4-22 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
DETROIT is 36-67 (-29.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
DETROIT is 27-47 (-22.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DETROIT is 12-25 (-13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
KANSAS CITY is 78-80 (+3.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 88-70 (+15.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 81-70 (+13.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 85-75 (+13.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
NORRIS is 8-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 16-7 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NORRIS is 9-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 27-26 (-22.8 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since 1997.
KANSAS CITY is 282-398 (-108.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 11-7 (+4.4 Units) against DETROIT this season
12 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+5.7 Units)

DANIEL NORRIS vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
NORRIS is 0-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.78 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-5. (-4.9 units)

DANNY DUFFY vs. DETROIT since 1997
DUFFY is 7-7 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.82 and a WHIP of 1.244.
His team's record is 9-9 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-9. (-1.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, September 28


Cincinnati @ Milwaukee

Game 951-952
September 28, 2017 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Romano) 15.445
Milwaukee
(Suter) 13.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
-155
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+135); Under

Pittsburgh @ Washington

Game 953-954
September 28, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
(Nova) 14.775
Washington
(Jackson) 15.661
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-140
9
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-140); Under

Atlanta @ Miami

Game 955-956
September 28, 2017 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Teheran) 14.538
Miami
(Peters) 11.585
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 3
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-105); Over

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis

Game 957-958
September 28, 2017 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Hendrcks) 16.793
St. Louis
(Lynn) 14.692
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-200
8
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(+170); Over

Minnesota @ Cleveland

Game 959-960
September 28, 2017 @ 12:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Santana) 16.305
Cleveland
(Carrasco) 17.415
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
-280
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-280); Over

Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees

Game 961-962
September 28, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Faria) 15.589
NY Yankees
(Gray) 18.003
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-190
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-190); Over

Houston @ Boston

Game 963-964
September 28, 2017 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Peacock) 15.866
Boston
(Rodriguez) 18.953
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-115); Under

Oakland @ Texas

Game 965-966
September 28, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Manaea) 14.725
Texas
(Gonzalez) 15.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-115
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(-105); Under

LA Angels @ Chicago White Sox

Game 967-968
September 28, 2017 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Angels
(Norris) 14.627
Chicago White Sox
(Covey) 16.591
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago White Sox
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-115
10
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago White Sox
(-105); Over

Detroit @ Kansas City

Game 969-970
September 28, 2017 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Norris) 13.223
Kansas City
(Duffy) 15.358
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
-200
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-200); Over

[Udog]

MLB Daily Line Drive: Thursday's picks, betting odds and analysis

Double-Play Picks

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (-155, 9.5)

The Reds and Brewers wrap up their three-game series this afternoon at Miller Park in Milwaukee. The teams have split the first two games and the Brewers' playoff hopes are clinging to the thinnest of threads.

Despite winning 6-0 last night, the Reds can't be trusted to play proper spoiler on the Rockies behalf. Prior to their win on Wednesday they had lost seven baseball games in a row and they will send rookie right-hander Sal Romano to the mound today.

Romano's last start was a disappointing five earned runs allowed over four innings of work in a 5-4 loss at home against the Red Sox. And in his last start against the Brewers (Aug 13 at Miller Park) he allowed seven runs over five innings of work in an eventual 7-4 loss.

The Brewers will counter with lefty Brent Suter. He has been very good, especially during the month of September where he has made five appearances (four starts and one relief) and owns an ERA of 1.56 and a WHIP of 1.2115. Dating back to August the Brewers have won Suter's last five starts overall.

Desperation is a great motivator in sports, and the Brewers are certainly desperate today with the Rockies' magic number now down to two.

Pick: Brewers -155

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (-110, 9)

The Braves and Marlins close out their respective disappointing seasons with a four-game set beginning Thursday night in Miami.

Neither Atlanta nor Miami were able to take a step forward in the National League East like they hoped to this season, with the Marlins sitting at 74-84 on the season and 21 games behind the division leading Nationals, while the Braves are 71-87 and 24 games back.

The NL East rivals open this season-ending series with Julio Teheran taking the mound for the Braves, while the Marlins counter with Dillon Peters.

It has been an interesting year of interesting splits for the Braves’ Teheran, who is 11-12 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP this season, but he hasn’t really enjoyed playing in the team’s new stadium, Sun Trust Park. However, Teheran has been excellent on the road, going 8-2 with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.

Meanwhile, it hasn’t been the easiest transition to the big leagues for the Marlins’ rookie Peters. The young southpaw is 0-2 in the first five starts of his career, pitching to a 6.31 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP. He’s been even more roughed up in his last three outings, going 0-1 with a 9.88 ERA and a 2.27 WHIP while walking more batters than he has struck out.

The only thing to cheer for in Marlins games recently is whether or not Gancarlo Stanton will hit 60 dingers.

Pick: Braves -110

Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 158-144-15

Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Brad Peacock, Houston Astros (12-2, 2.98 ERA, $324)

Very slim pickings for our Streaking Starter section today. Julio Teheran would likely have claimed the award, but we used him above in our Double-Play Picks.

Instead of Teheran we will go with Houston's Brad Peacock. The veteran utility right-hander is having a tremendous season for the Astros at 12-2 with a 2.98 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. Things have been even better for him on the road where he owns a personal win/loss record of 7-0 with an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.14.

Peacock and the Astros are slight road underdogs at -102 at Fenway Park against Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox.

Slumping: Edwin Jackson, Washington Nationals (5-6, 5.40 ERA, $-261)

As the Nationals begin to get their roster set up for their upcoming NLDS series against the Cubs, you can be pretty sure that Edwin Jackson will not be a part of their starting rotation.

A team win/loss of 5-7, an ERA of 5.40, and a WHIP of 1.45 in 12 starts with Washington is not very good. A team win/loss of 0-3, an ERA of 15.68, and a WHIP of 2.71 in his last three starts is, pretty much, as bad as it gets.

Jackson and the Nats are -145 home favorites against Ivan Nova and the Pirates today.

Thursday's Top Trends

* The Cleveland Indians are 30-3 in their last 33 overall. -260 today vs. Twins.
* The New York Yankees are 11-1 in their last 12 home games. -200 today vs. Rays.
* Under is 35-15-2 in Eduardo Rodriguez's last 52 starts overall. Astros/Red Sox Total: 9.
* The Detroit Tigers are 5-24 in their last 29 vs. American League Central. +182 today at Royals.

Weather To Keep An Eye On

Rain will not be a factor at any MLB ballpark without a roof today, but there will be wind. Here are the most notable breezes in the forecast for today:

Twins @ Indians (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left-center field.
Rays @ Yankees (Total: 8.5) - 13-15 mile per hour crosswind blowing from left field to right field.
Pirates @ Nationals (Total: 9) - 11-14 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
Astros @ Red Sox (Total: 9) - 13-14 mile per hour wind blowing IN from left field.
Athletics @ Rangers (Total: 10.5) - 9-11 mile per hour wind blowing OUT to right field.