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**Udog** · 07-10-2017, 09:43 AM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Cubs’ starting pitchers’ ERA in the first inning, compared to before ‘17:

— Jake Arrieta: 6.50 this year, 2.52 prior to this year

— Eddie Butler: 4.09 this year, 8.04 prior to this year

— John Lackey: 6.35 this year, 4.01 prior to this year

— Jon Lester: 7.85 this year, 3.76 prior to this year

— Kyle Hendricks: 5.73 this year, 3.72 prior to this year

— Mike Montgomery: 7.11 this year, 4.37 prior to this year

— Brett Anderson: 21.94 this year, 4.30 prior to this year

Total: 7.34 this season, 3.85 prior to this season

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Random stuff at the All-Star break…..

13) There are still rows of tickets available for the All-Star Game Tuesday in Miami. Tickets are $280 apiece, which seems a little high. What do you think?

12) Colorado’s Kyle Freeland didn’t allow a hit until there was one out in the 9th inning (Melky Cabrera); the Rockies waxed Chicago, 9-0. Freeland is a Colorado kid; he threw 126 pitches.

Ubaldo Jimenez is the only Colorado Rockie to toss a no-hitter- he did it in Atlanta. Hideo Nomo threw the only no-hitter so far at Coors Field, in 1996.

11) Auburn Tigers opened at 50-1 to win the college football national title this fall; they’ve dropped to 22-1, amidst optimism that Baylor transfer QB Jarrett Stidham is the real deal.

10) 76er fans have to be worried about Markelle Fultz and his ability to stay healthy; he missed six of Washington’s last eight games last winter (sore knee) and know he got hurt in the Sixers’ second summer league game.

An 82-game NBA season is grueling; Fultz is still a kid. We’ll see.

9) Lot of talking heads like to use cumulative “run differential” as an important stat; Astros beat Toronto 19-1 Sunday— what does that show? Houston has a solid lineup that pounds on lousy relief pitching. So what? Astros are 18-13 in games decided by 1-2 runs. Dodgers are 22-16.

Houston is 42-16 in games decided by more than 2 runs, Dodgers are 38-13

8) Cubs were 42-13 last year in games decided by 5+ runs. This year? 10-14.

7) Knicks and former Cavs’ GM David Griffin couldn’t come to an agreement on what Griffin’s role would be in New York, so they’re going their separate ways. Thats bad for Knicks fans.

6) Seattle’s Danny Valencia was called out on strikes Sunday, then spit on the plate before he went back to the dugout. Wonder how that went over with the home plate ump?

5) Former NFL lineman Richard Seymour was playing at the World Series of Poker last week; he had a Super Bowl ring on top of his chip stack. Good conversation starter.

4) On June 20, Colorado was a half-game ahead of the Dodgers. 20 days later, they’re 9.5 games behind LA, but they still lead the race for the 2nd Wild Card by 7.5 games.

3) Dodgers are now 45-9 in Clayton Kershaw’s last 54 starts.

2) SEC has its college football media days this week, which is pretty fun TV some of the time. Les Miles is sadly gone from this group, but good to hear which cliches coaches break out in the middle of summer, with real games still 8 or 9 weeks away.

1– If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not), they’d look like this…

AL- Boston-Cleveland-Houston. Wild Cards: New York/Tampa Bay
NL- Washington-Milwaukee-Los Angeles. Wild Cards: Arizona/Colorado

**Udog** · 07-10-2017, 10:12 AM

MLB betting at the break: Best and worst wagers so far this season

The All-Star break is nearly upon us and that means it’s time to take stock of the good, the bad and the ugly MLB bettors have witnessed during the season’s first half.

Let’s review the best and worst bets of the first three months of the 2017 season.

Best runline team

Houston Astros: 51-35

The runline, for novice baseball bettors, is just like a puckline in hockey. It’s a way to bet baseball games with a spread rather than a moneyline. The runline is always + or -1.5 runs.

It should come as no surprise that the best team in baseball is also the best runline bet. The Astros own the best road record in the majors, which plays a big part in their 51-35 runline record. The few games the ‘Stros are not favored normally happen away from Minute Maid Park.

It helps too when Houston’s starters at the backend of the rotation are winning at a handsome clip.

Worst runline team

Chicago Cubs: 32-53

A .500 record in baseball isn’t anything to get too worried or too excited about. It’s a lot like favored rice crackers in the snack tree. It’s fine.

The problem with the Cubbies is that they’re coming off a coming off a 103-win season. A .500 record for this team would be like Ryan Gosling dating a 7. OK, she’s not ugly but you’re Ryan effing Gosling! What the hell are you doing with a 7?

Oddsmakers favor the team frequently because of the high expectations and the talent on the roster. The Cubs are still among the top favorites to win the World Series at 10/1 despite their mediocre first half.

Best Over team

New York Mets: 48-25-10

The Tampa Rays have cashed more Over tickets (51) but the high number of pushes keeps the Mets as the most profitable Over bet.

New York’s whole identity from 2016 has flip-flopped a year later. Last season the Mets allowed the third fewest runs and only four teams touched home plate less often than the Mets.

This season, the Mets own the third worst team ERA at 4.92 and their offense is middle of the pack. Oddsmakers have adjusted but if you were betting the Over with the Mets in the first two months of the season, you were winning at a 73.8 percent rate.

Best Under team

Cleveland Indians: 30-49-5

You’d think the Indians would be a good Over team in 2017 with the addition of professional ball-blaster Edwin Encarnacion and a healthy Michael Brantley in the lineup.

The club’s offense is on par with last year’s run produced per game, but that’s just not good enough to stay in elite company with 2017’s jacked home run rate.

Last season, the average MLB team scored 4.5 runs per game. This year, that number has climbed to 4.7.

Best money team

Houston Astros: $1960

Moneyline, as we all know, helps us measure how profitable a given team is based on $100 wagers on each of the club’s games. So, if you bet $100 on the ‘Stros in each of their games you be up $1960 or 19.6 units.

Same reasoning here for the Astros as there was for their runline record. They own the best record in the majors, they win games with their fourth and fifth starters and they’re winning 76 percent of their road games.

Worst money team

San Francisco Giants: -$2179

It doesn’t help playing in a division with three teams playing .570 or better. It also doesn’t help when you’re most effective starting pitcher is Johnny Cueto.

The Giants blog McCovey Chronicles asked an excellent question: Who would be the Giants All-Star selection this year if Buster Posey wasn’t on the team?
Search me. This team stinks.

Best money starting pitcher

Clayton Kershaw: $1160

Just a reminder: Clayton Kershaw is really fricken’ good. The Dodgers are 16-2 in games he’s taken the hill including that gem on Tuesday when threw seven shutout innings with 11 strikeouts against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

If Kershaw is too expensive for your taste, consider Jason Vargas. He might be the pitching story of the first half of the season for bettors.

The journeyman hurler is putting together his finest season in his 14th year in the bigs. The Kansas City Royals are 13-4 in his 17 starts and up 10.8 units.

Worst money starting pitcher

Jerad Eickhoff: -$1053

It could have been any Philadelphia Phillies starter, really. Eickhoff just has the… honor(?) of being the Phils ace of the rotation. He’s come back down to earth after a breakout year in 2016. He carries a 4.93 ERA and the Phillies are just 2-12 in his 14 starts this season.

**Udog** · 07-10-2017, 10:14 AM

How to handicap the second half of the MLB betting season

The second half of the season throws some curveballs when it comes to how MLB bettors handicap the daily odds. A set of unique factors come into play in the final two and half months of the regular season slate, and bettors should be mindful to adjust.

The grueling seven-month voyage that is the MLB betting season comes to port briefly during the All-Star Game, giving baseball teams and baseball bettors a quick breathier before hitting the home stretch of the schedule.

The second half of the season throws some curveballs when it comes to how MLB bettors handicap the daily odds. A set of unique factors come into play in the final two and half months of the regular season slate, and bettors should be mindful to adjust.

Here are some simple tips and tactics for capping the second half of the MLB calendar:

Watch for wear

As the temperatures get turned up in July, August and September, we also see more wear and tear of pitching staffs across the majors. Baseball bettors will want to take the All-Star hiatus to check up on which teams could be in trouble, as it pertains to innings pitched and starter depth.

If one or two starters go down, or even struggle on the mound, that forces a shuffle of the pitching staff and more reliance on the bullpen to pick up the slack. This can lead to issues on that side of the plate, leaving teams thin until September call-ups arrive.

Ride the Over

In connection with the wearing down of pitchers mentioned above, is the uptick in totals trends – primarily Over trends – in the second half of the season.

Teams going through issues on the mound tend to give up more runs and have a tough time plugging those leaks before September. That puts more value into following Over trends in July and August. The betting markets are also slower to react to totals trends, since they don’t get the mainstream media coverage that an extended winning or losing streak would garner, and hold their betting value longer.

Industry shift

Once the NBA and NHL playoffs conclude, baseball pretty much has the attention of the sports betting world for June and July – that means the lines are sharp and the action is heavy. But as the NFL kicks off its preseason campaign in August and with college football coming at the end of that month as well, the industry drastically shifts its attention and efforts.

The focus on baseball dies down, from both books and bettors, which means value betting on certain stats and trends has a longer shelf life. Die-hard MLB bettors committed to the sport, even when football rolls into town, will have an advantage as they are first to sniff out the best bets on the board.

Injuries and returning players

The marathon MLB season starts to take its toll on players after the break with a pandemic of ailments across the big leagues. Injuries to starting pitchers are perhaps the most destructive to a club’s success but don’t underestimate the loss of a key lineup contributor as well. They can upend the offensive production as well as leave gaps in the field. Take a deep dive into their contributions and advanced stats, like WAR (Wins Above Replacement), which should give you an indication of how far a team could slip without them.

On the flip side of this, players who suffered an injury before the break have had some extra time to heal up and could be coming back for the home stretch of the schedule. Those returning talents can give depth to a rotation, boost a bullpen, or spark a lineup with their bat. Make sure you keep a close eye on returning players and how they’re impacting the outcomes in the first few games back on the diamond.

Motivation and moves

As the fall closes in, baseball bettors will have a clear idea as to which MLB clubs are contenders and which ones don’t have a shot at October. Teams in contention could provide more bang for your betting buck, as they fight to make the postseason cut, while those with no hope of making the playoffs could start looking ahead to next season. Those teams could start working younger players into games, trying to build experience and gauge their roster for the following year. Always be mindful of the standings and a team’s situation each time out.

Going hand-in-hand with this is player movement, especially around the trade deadline. Those teams aiming for a postseason spot will make some moves to bolster their roster and fill any gaps they have, and betting on “buyers” in the second half of the schedule is never a bad idea. However, you will also have teams calling it quits on the current season and selling off their top talents to the highest bidder, stacking assets for the future. Beware those “sellers” in the final months of the summer.

**Udog** · 07-10-2017, 10:16 AM

World Series futures landscape sure has changed since Opening Day

After winning just 69 games in 2016 the Diamondbacks entered the 2017 season as 100/1 longshots to win the World Series. Well they've won 52 games already this year, improving their odds to 14/1.

We’re at the halfway mark of the Major League Baseball season and it’s a good time to reflect on which teams are playing better than expected and which sides are disappointing us more than the second season of The Wire.

We looked at the World Series odds just before the first pitch of the 2017 regular season and compared those to the current odds at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Biggest Risers

Arizona Diamondbacks

March odds: 100/1
Current odds: 14/1

Entering the season, oddsmakers knew the Diamondbacks could rake. Led by perennial NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona finished the 2016 campaign ranked 10th in runs scored. The team finished dead last, however, in team ERA at 5.09.

This year the D-backs trail only the Los Angeles Dodgers for best team ERA in the big leagues at 3.37. Arizona backers can thank a bounce back year from Zack Greinke and one of the best bullpens in baseball for the improvement.

Also worth noting: Arizona owns the best win-loss record in one-run games at 18-10.

Milwaukee Brewers

March odds: 300/1
Current odds: 60/1

Only the Cincinnati Reds had worse odds to win the World Series than the Brewers in the National League Central division. Well, the team that was projected to finish second last in the division is in first place heading into the All-Star break.

The Brewers don’t go about their business quietly. Their success is measured by every ball they mash over the outfield fences. Milwaukee is second in the majors in home runs and fourth in slugging percentage.

There isn’t much star power on the mound for the Brew Crew outside of all-star closer Corey Knebel. Bettors know the Brewers must out-bash opponents to keep up the results in the second half of season.

Biggest Disappointments

San Francisco Giants

March odds: 12/1
Current odds: 200/1

Didn’t Vegas get the memo? It’s only in even years San Francisco becomes a giant in the baseball world. San Fran won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014 and last year went 87-75.

The Giants’ record in odd years since 2011? Not as good. That’s on you, Vegas.

Still the Giants have been a regular 80-plus win team this decade and they are on pace to lose 100 games this season. Everyone expected a drop when team ace Madison Bumgarner was placed on the 60-day DL back in April, but not for the bottom to fall out this quickly.

Detroit Tigers

March odds: 20/1
Current odds: 100/1

Is Miguel Cabrera a Detroit Tiger or a paper tiger? Will the judges accept both as correct answers?
Miggy finished last year third in the American League in OPS but ranks near 40th in 2017. It was bound to happen. This is Cabrera’s 15th season in the bigs and those wrists have to slow down at some point.

Cabrera isn’t the only star losing his shine in Detroit. Justin Verlander, who many feel should have won the AL Cy Young in 2016, is battling through one of his worst campaigns as a professional. He’s carrying a 4.96 ERA and is closing in on matching his walk total from a year ago with half the season still to go.

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Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/10

Monday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 7/10

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