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**Udog** · 04-02-2017, 02:51 PM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

— If I’m an NFL team interested in drafting Deshaun Watson, I’d want to know why the Clemson QB was in a bar in Alabama. His choice, but I’d just like to know why.

— Bill Self, Tracy McGrady and George McGinnis were among 11 basketball greats elected to the Naismith Hall of Fame Saturday.

— Bruins 5, Florida 2— Boston has a 4-point lead for the last Wild Card spot in the East.

— Clippers 115, Lakers 104— Clippers ran out to a 17-0 lead, then trailed 32-31.

— Portland 130, Phoenix 117— Trailblazers even their record at 38-38.

— At some point, Phil Mickelson paid off a $2M gambling debt. I’d seriously be curious to see how that debt was accumulated; what games over what period of time? I’m a curious guy.

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up Final Four Saturday

13) Gonzaga 77, South Carolina 73— Were you not entertained? Not often a team goes on a 16-0 run and loses; Gamecocks fought their hearts out, but their bench was outscored 22-14 and Bulldogs advance to play for their first national title Monday night.

12) North Carolina 77, Oregon 76— Ducks shot under 30% from arc in four of their six losses this year; this 7-26 performance was their worst since November losses to Baylor/Georgetown. Oregon held UNC to 36.2% inside the arc, but couldn’t rebound two missed foul shots when it mattered most, and now their great season is over.

11) Charles Barkley predicted Gonzaga to win Monday night before the second game last night was over. I’m predicting the game will get excellent TV ratings.

10) Other than Kentucky/Duke, is recruiting one/done players a good idea? Here are some recent one/done’s and how their coaches made out:

— Dennis Smith, NC State— Mark Gottfried got fired this year.
— Ben Simmons, LSU— Johnny Jones got fired this year, a year after Simmons left.
— Markelle Fultz, Washington— Lorenzo Romar got fired this year.
— Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV- Dave Rice was fired during the season last year.

9) Former VCU/Alabama coach Anthony Grant is the new coach at Dayton; he had been with the Oklahoma City Thunder as an assistant under Billy Donovan.

8) Quote of the Day, Part II: “Players, if anything, need a mental break sometimes. And sorry, they’re human. They go through so much every single day. There are so many obligations off the court that you don’t know about. … It might not be a physical break, it might just be a reset mentally, and I get that.”
Kevin Durant

This made me want to puke, seriously. The regular season is six months long, playoffs run another 6-7 weeks, for the really good teams. You mean to tell me you need a break from playing three games a week for six months a year, but not for physical reasons, but MENTAL ones?

Good God almighty.

7) The key word in all of that is “obligations”. I’d be curious to know what Durant considers his “obligations” to be, and what makes them so demanding that he needs to take games off.

6) Final Four drew 77,612 fans in the Cardinals’ domed stadium last night. They drew 39,380 in San Francisco for an A’s-Giants exhibition game Thursday night. Sports are popular.

5) If NCAA wanted to, they could have the entire March Madness in Las Vegas, with regional games in UNLV’s arena, Mandalay Bay, MGM Grand and T-Mobile Arena. The Final Four could be in the Raiders’ new domed stadium, when it gets built.

4) New Mexico fired basketball coach Craig Neal, which was kind of expected after his point guard son Cullen bolted the Lobos for Ole Miss after last season.

3) Grant Hill is throwing out the first ball at the Diamondbacks’ season opener today. There are three games on the baseball schedule. AmericA’S team (the A’s) open on Monday night.

2) One thing about sitting in a Las Vegas casino and I’ll have a lot more on this tomorrow; this is a very diverse set of bettors here in Las Vegas. You meet all kinds of people, you bond over sports and food and you realize that we’re a lot more alike that some people want to admit.

1— Early line for Monday night’s game: UNC -2, total of 154 (getting bet up as we speak).

**Udog** · 04-02-2017, 02:56 PM

MLB
Dunkel

Sunday, April 2

NY Yankees @ Tampa Bay

Game 905-906
April 2, 2017 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 14.400
Tampa Bay
(Archer) 15.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-115
7
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-105); Under

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis

Game 903-904
April 2, 2017 @ 8:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago Cubs
(Lester) 18.124
St. Louis
(Mrtinez) 15.987
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-125
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-125); Over

San Francisco @ Arizona

Game 901-902
April 2, 2017 @ 4:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Bmgrner) 15.291
Arizona
(Greinke) 16.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+115); Under

MLB
Long Sheet

Sunday, April 2

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SAN FRANCISCO (89 - 78) at ARIZONA (69 - 93) - 4:10 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. ZACK GREINKE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-31 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 117-66 (+36.4 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 117-66 (+36.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 600-585 (+53.1 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters since 1997.
ARIZONA is 16-32 (-16.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 33-48 (-21.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-19 (-14.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 33-48 (-21.0 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. ARIZONA since 1997
BUMGARNER is 9-7 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 2.56 and a WHIP of 1.099.
His team's record is 15-10 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 15-10. (+3.7 units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
GREINKE is 9-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.49 and a WHIP of 1.129.
His team's record is 11-3 (+7.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-7. (-1.0 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (114 - 64) at ST LOUIS (86 - 76) - 8:35 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. CARLOS MARTINEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1602-1687 (-258.2 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1545-1600 (-233.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1179-1252 (-194.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 28-12 (+14.1 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 31-9 (+19.0 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons.
LESTER is 20-3 (+15.7 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ST LOUIS is 38-43 (-24.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 38-43 (-24.2 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 25-29 (-17.5 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 7-14 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JON LESTER vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
LESTER is 5-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 1.87 and a WHIP of 0.915.
His team's record is 7-5 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-9. (-7.4 units)

CARLOS MARTINEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
MARTINEZ is 3-3 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 5.08 and a WHIP of 1.539.
His team's record is 5-4 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.1 units)

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NY YANKEES (84 - 78) at TAMPA BAY (68 - 94) - 1:10 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. CHRIS ARCHER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TANAKA is 23-8 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TANAKA is 10-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
TAMPA BAY is 68-94 (-30.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 7-17 (-11.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 36-45 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 28-39 (-17.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 36-45 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 36-45 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 50-68 (-22.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ARCHER is 10-23 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARCHER is 4-12 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARCHER is 3-13 (-10.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARCHER is 4-12 (-10.6 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARCHER is 5-12 (-9.2 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
TANAKA is 6-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.82 and a WHIP of 0.810.
His team's record is 8-0 (+8.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-3. (+2.0 units)

CHRIS ARCHER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
ARCHER is 5-5 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 0.921.
His team's record is 7-6 (+0.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.3 units)

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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, April 2

National League
Giants @ Diamondbacks
Bumgarner was 3-1, 3.97 in his last seven starts LY; seven of his last ten starts went over.

Greinke was 1-3, 6.35 in his last four starts; his last three starts stayed under.
_________________________________

Cubs @ Cardinals
Hendricks was 5-1, 2.05 in his last seven regular season starts; six of his last nine starts went over total.

Martinez was 2-1, 2.00 in his last three starts; his last six starts all stayed under.
_________________________________

American League

Bronx @ Rays
Tanaka was 7-0, 2.28 in his last nine starts LY. Under was 8-5 in his last 13 starts.

Archer was 1-2, 3.62 in his last five starts LY. Under is 11-8 in his last 19 starts.

MLB

Sunday, April 2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games at home
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Arizona is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against San Francisco

8:35 PM
CHI CUBS vs. ST. LOUIS
Chi Cubs are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 04-02-2017, 03:03 PM

April Good Month/Bad Month MLB Pitchers
Marc Lawrence

Despite the brutal start to his Diamondbacks career, Greinke has historically gotten off to good starts, especially in road games.

Major League Baseball trades places with March Madness as the sports flavor of the month in April. As we usher in America's favorite pastime, let's open the season with one of our favorite handicapping angles – good month pitchers.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s April list. In addition also designated are the best and/or worst site results – home (H) or away (A) – within each pitcher’s April results.

I'll be back next month with May's Good Month Pitchers. Until then, it’s time to play ball!

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Sonny Gray, Oakland A's (10-5, 6-3 H)

Is Sonny Gray still an ace? After an injury-plagued 2016, which saw him give up career-highs in walks and home runs and register his lowest strikeouts per nine innings, this is important year for Oakland right-hander. If his command and velocity are normal, he could get off to a good start.

*Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks (12-4, 7-0 A)

Did Zack Greinke fall under the weight of big contract in Arizona or did playing for a bad team diminish his interest last season? We should find out right away and Greinke will never post typical career numbers playing at hitter-friendly Chase Field. With D-Backs brutal early schedule, they will need their ace to shine.

*Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals (9-4, 4-1 H)

Hammel moves over to Kansas City to fit into the Royals’ rotation. The right-hander has started strong the last few years but faded after All-Star break, and will likely do the same in the heat of humidity of K.C. However, to start the season he should be fine with his sinking fastball being beaten into the ground.

Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros (10-5, 4-2 A)

The Houston ace struggled at times last year, partly it seemed with increased expectations on himself and his team. If the Astros are to return to playoffs, Keuchel has to have better command like he did in 2015, and have movement low in the zone, lacking the big fastball.

Jon Neise, Free Agent (10-4, 5-2 A)

Recently released by New York Yankees. If picked up, will likely be a reliever.

David Price, Boston Red Sox (10-5, 5-1 H)

Price has not thrown since early March with tender elbow and those in Red Sox Nation are hoping for May return. Other rumors are Tommy John surgery is becoming a possibility.

Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (9-3, 5-1 H)

With Price gone for now, Sale becomes the top gun of the Boston staff. The big lefty has mid-90's heater that he can dial up to 98 MPH when needed, along with nasty curve and slider. There will be a lot more pressure pitching in Bean Town, but little reason to think Sale will not be up to the task.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals (10-5, 6-2 A)

For four months last season, Strasburg was fulfilling all possible expectations (finally) with a lively fastball, unhittable curve, and knee-buckling changeup. Once August arrived, it all disappeared as opposing batters were suddenly squaring up all his pitches as once again elbow and shoulder woes returned. For now, baseball bettors would be happy with typical April.

Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles (9-4, 6-2 H)

Tillman is battling shoulder problems and is expected to start the year on the DL. If he returns healthy, Tillman should resume where he left off last season where he added sinker that really drops late. Also, he moved to third-base side of pitching rubber, which gave better angles for cutter to really baffle RH hitters.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Clay Buchholz, Philadelphia Phillies (3-12, 0-7 H)

Since his 12-1 2013 campaign, Buchholz has been a below average pitcher and was horrific for Boston in the first part of the season with an ERA of 6.35. After spending months in the bullpen and spot starting, the always inconsistent righty was a stud for the Red Sox in September. Buchholz was traded to Philadelphia and if he thought Boston fans were tough he will need ear plugs if he has a couple rough April starts in Philly.

John Danks, Free Agent (4-9, 1-5 A)

Danks got a tryout with Atlanta this spring, however, he was not very good and was cut. At 31-years-old, his velocity is well below average, his breaking pitches lack previous bite and at best is mop-up lefty reliever.

R. A. Dickey, Atlanta Braves (5-10, 1-6 A)

Dickey has moved over to Atlanta and will start the season as part of their rotation. Trying to predict how a knuckleball will perform is strictly guess work, but safe to say at 42 his best days are behind him. Braves front office just need him to do well enough to bring people to new ballpark. Maybe changing leagues again will help. (Probably not).

Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore Orioles (4-9, 0-6 A)

We are as amazed as you are Jimenez remains in Baltimore's starting rotation. Owning baseball's most complicated delivery, the now 34-year old has always had talent and could strikeout six batters in two innings and give up three home runs in the very next inning. Wildly inconsistent and hardly ever trustworthy for baseball bettors, is his mantra.

*Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians (3-13, 1-8 A)

The Indians ace would like nothing better to pick right up where he left off in the postseason, where he was magnificent on normal rest. When right, Kluber is one of the best in baseball, yet for some reason has gotten off to rough starts to the season. Will that finally change?

Mike Leake, St. Louis Cardinals (5-10, 3-6 H)

Leake is a command-and-control pitcher who relies on at least good infield defense, which is something St. Louis lacked last season, and the right-hander suffered accordingly. Leake still is accountable for 4.69 ERA, compared to 3.99 for his career, and he has to hope ground balls find more fielders in 2017.

James Shields, Chicago White Sox (5-10, 1-5 A)

Shields found out U.S. Cellular Field is not nearly as pitcher friendly as Petco Park and largely was hammered with the White Sox. With his changeup no longer having the same dipping action at 35 years old, compared to his Tampa Bay days, he could be in a long April and season on a rotten team.

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Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 4/2

Sunday's MLB Trends and Indexes - 4/2

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